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TRANSCRIPT
0icfi.com |
Emerging Opportunities &
Carbon-constrained Markets
Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel
April 5, 2016
Green Transportation Summit Expo
Philip Sheehy, PhD
1icfi.com |
Overview
Introduction
Overview: National and Regional Markets
Carbon intensity as a market driver
Outlook
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Where I’m Coming FromINTRODUCTION
Market Advisory Services
Regulatory Impact Analyses
Reporting and Verification
Lifecycle Analysis
3icfi.com |
National TrendsOVERVIEW
Corn oil
Soybean oil
Yellow grease
Production
Imports
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
0
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bio
die
sel P
rod
uct
ion
& Im
po
rts,
M G
allo
ns
BD
Inp
uts
, Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
Source: EIA
4icfi.com |
Regional MarketsOVERVIEW
Low carbon fuel standards – require a carbon intensity reduction
on a lifecycle basis.
Active in California, Oregon, and British Columbia
Fuel / FeedstockCarbon Intensity (g/MJ)
ILUC Total
Diesel n/a 102
BD, soy oil 29.1 40-60
BD, canola oil 14.5 40-60
BD, corn oil n/a 20-30
BD, used cooking oil n/a 15-25
RD, tallow n/a 20-30
RD, palm oil 71.4 100+
Source: CARB
5icfi.com |
Product DeliveryOVERVIEW
Diamond Green
Neste Europe
Neste Singapore
CA
OR
WA
BC SG Preston
REG
Source: Biodiesel Magazine, CARB, ICF
6icfi.com |
Feedstock Flexibility & Carbon AccountingOVERVIEW
Production Facility
Feedstock A
Feedstock B
Feedstock C
Carbon-
Constrained Market
Conventional
Market
B,C
A
7icfi.com |
Product DeliveryOVERVIEW
Diamond Green
Neste Europe
Neste Singapore
B
SG Preston
REG
Source: Biodiesel Magazine, CARB, ICF
C
A
B, A
8icfi.com |
Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel in CA LCFSCARBON INTENSITY AS A DRIVER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q12011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015
Q2 Q3
80-85
>9070-75
<7075-80
85-90
Ethanol
Source: CARB
9icfi.com |
Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel in CA LCFSCARBON INTENSITY AS A DRIVER
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q12011
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015
Q2 Q3
biodiesel
ren diesel
biomethane
natgas
electricity
Everything Else
Source: CARB
10icfi.com |
LCFS Credit Price vs ValueCARBON INTENSITY AS A MARKET DRIVER
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200
Val
ue
($/g
al)
LCFS Credit Price ($/t)
CI=10g/MJ
CI=25g/MJ
CI=50g/MJ
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ICF Outlook to 2020 for California LCFSOUTLOOK
-10
-5
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Cre
dit
-Def
icit
Bal
ance
gasoline
diesel
totalClear inflection point of
when credits out-pace
deficits; the end of using
banked credits
diesel
CNG
biodiesel, soybeans
biodiesel, corn oil
biodiesel, FOGsbiomethane
LNG
gasoline
ethanol, CA corn
ethanol, sugarcane
ethanol, cellulosic
electricity
hydrogen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Car
bo
n in
ten
sity
(g
/MJ)
renewable diesel
renewable gasoline
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CARB Illustrative ScenarioOUTLOOK
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Cellulosic Ethanol (domestic)
Cellulosic Ethanol (Total)
Corn Oil
Renewable Diesel (Domestic)
Renewable Diesel (Total)
Natural Gas
Renewable Natural Gas
Electricity
Refinery Credits
LCFS Credits (millions)
Source: CARB
