biofuels and transport futures: iea views to 2015, 2030 & 2050
DESCRIPTION
Lew Fulton presents IEA's transport projections over the short, medium and long term at the World Biofuels Markets 2012 conference in Rotterdam, 14 March. Among other points, Lew demonstrates that even with a maximum contribution from electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars and trucks, and huge efficiency improvements across all types of vehicles, the liquid fuel demand in 2050 is likely to be at least as big as today's (focused mainly in trucks, ships and aircraft). Biofuels are the only other major option for cutting CO2 emissions in transport, so it is imperative that we find ways to move toward large volume production of advanced, sustainable biofuels. If we can't do it, it means the transport sector may continue to rely heavily on oil, emitting large amounts of CO2, in 2050.Lew FultonInternational Energy AgencyWorld Biofuels MarketsRotterdam, 14 March 2012TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2010
Biofuels and Transport Futures: IEA views to 2015, 2030, 2050
Lew FultonInternational Energy Agency
www.iea.org
World Biofuels MarketsRotterdam, 14 March 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010
A presentation in 3 parts…
Quick view to 2016 Deeper view to 2035 Deepest view to 2050
Global Biofuel Production – Medium-Term Outlook
• Global biofuels production rises from 1.8 mb/d (105 billion L) in 2010 to 2.3 mb/d (135 billion L) in 2016
– A total increase of 0.5 mb/d…– …equivalent to an average yearly growth of 4.3% or 90 kb/d
• On an energy adjusted basis versus oil, biofuels supply increases from 1.3 mb/d (2.4 EJ) in 2010 to 1.7 mb/d (3.4 EJ) in 2016
– Energy adjusted supply growth to meet 9% of gasoline and gasoil growth, with ethanol at 24% of gasoline growth and biodiesel at 4% of gasoil growth
– Yet, in 2016, biofuels satisfy only 1.8% of total global demand
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1.6
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mb/d Global Biofuels Supply
US Biofuels Brazil Biofuels
OECD Europe Biofuels Rest of Global Biofuels
World: Total Biofuels DemandAdjusted for Energy Content
1.01.11.2
1.31.41.51.6
1.71.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
mb/d
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
Biofuels Share of Total Demand
© OECD/IEA 2011
Most new oil production capacity is Most new oil production capacity is needed to offset declineneeded to offset decline
World liquids supply by type in the New Policies Scenario
Decline at existing conventional fields amounts to 47 mb/d, twice current OPEC Middle East production; the largest production increases come from Iraq, Saudi Arabia & Brazil
0102030405060708090
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
mb/
d
BiofuelsProcessing gainsUnconventional oilNatural gas liquids
Yet to be foundYet to be developedCurrently producing
Crude oil:
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Transport drives oil demandTransport drives oil demand
Change in primary oil demand by sector & region in the New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035
Transport net demand expands by 14 mb/d between 2010 & 2035, outweighing a net fall in demand of more than 1 mb/d in other sectors
- 4 - 2 0 2 4 6 8
OECD AmericasOECD Europe
OECD Asia OceaniaLatin America
E. Europe/EurasiaAfrica
Other AsiaMiddle East
IndiaChina
mb/d
Transport
Buildings
Industry
Other
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Car markets move to Car markets move to non-OECD countriesnon-OECD countries
World PLDV sales in the New Policies Scenario
Global car remain dominated by conventional ICE vehicles, but hybrids make significant inroads.
Electric
Natural gas
Hybrid
Conventional ICE
Vehicle sales:
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Mill
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vehi
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2010 2020 2030 2035OECD Non-OECD
2010 2020 2030 2035
© OECD/IEA 2010
ETP 2010: Transport Energy Use in 2050 by Scenario
•Global transport energy use in Baseline doubles by 2050
•BLUE Shifts achieves a 20% reduction in 2050; BLUE Map achieves 40%, BLUE Map/Shifts achieves nearly 50%
•Nearly 50% of energy is low-CO2 renewable in 2050
5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 000
Baseline Baseline BLUE Shifts
BLUE Map
BLUE Map Shifts
2007 2030 2050
Mto
e Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricity
CNG and LPG
GTL and CTL
Heavy fuel oil
Jet fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
© OECD/IEA 2010
Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging
In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales
In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles account for more than two-thirds of all sales.
Million sales / year
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
H2 Fuel Cell
Electric
Plug-in Hybrid
Hybrid
CNG/LPG
Conventional Diesel
Conventional Gasoline
BLUE MapBaseline
© OECD/IEA 2010
How much biofuels will we need worldwide by 2050?
Even in ETP 2 degree scenario, electricity and H2 will have limited transport application if no technology breakthroughs; 2000 MTOE up for grabs
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2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050
Light-duty vehicles
Urban trucks Long-haul trucks
Shipping Aviation
MTO
E Fossil/ BiofuelsHydrogen
Electricity
© OECD/IEA 2010
How much biofuels will we need worldwide by 2050?
In ETP 2 degree scenario, we have about 700 MTOE of biofuels in 2050 compared to 70 today; can we do this?
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2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050
Light-duty vehicles
Urban trucks Long-haul trucks
Shipping Aviation
MTO
E Fossil
Biofuel
Hydrogen
Electricity
© OECD/IEA 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
IEA Technology Roadmaps Roadmaps are intended to:
Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives publication
Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term milestones, including: Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these Identify key conversion pathways Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability Identify market requirements and policy needs Define international collaboration needs
For more information: www.iea.org/roadmaps
IEA Technology Roadmap - Biofuels for Transport Developed under consultation of industry, governmental and research institutions as well as NGOs Closely linked to forthcoming Technology Roadmap on Bioenergy for Heat and Power
Concentrated Solar Power Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Smart Grids Solar Photovoltaic Energy Wind Energy
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Key outputs from IEA Biofuels Roadmap, 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50
Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case
Total expenditure on biofuels 2010-50 sums up to USD 11-13 trillion (i.e. 11-12% of total fuel costs) Incremental costs compared to use of fossil fuels are in the range of +/-1% of total fuel cost
spending in the next 40 years
Production costs shown as untaxed retail price
© OECD/IEA 2011
IEA Roadmap: Key policy actions Stability:
Create a long-term policy framework for biofuels.
Innovation and Deployment: Provide sustained funding for advanced biofuels RD&D and commercial deployment. Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential analysis.
Sustainability: Adopt sound, internationally aligned sustainability certification for biofuels. Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels. Incentivise use of wastes and residues.
International Collaboration: Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology transfer. Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture, forestry, rural development).
© OECD/IEA 2011
Acknowledgements
Thanks to the co-authors: Adam Brown, Anselm Eisentraut, Jana Hanova and Jack Saddler
IEA Technology Roadmap - Biofuels for TransportAvailable: www.iea.org/roadmaps
Contact:[email protected]
Forthcoming:IEA Technology Roadmap – Bioenergy for Heat and PowerLaunch date: Spring 2012