biomass resources in california: potential for economic use · biomass resources in california:...

51
               Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policy support (briefly) Urban biomass resources Forest biomass resources Agricultural biomass resources Marginal lands Biogas USDA/DOE Biomass Advisory Committee Emeryville , California November 19, 2015 Stephen Kaffka* Rob Williams, Nic George, WanRu Yang, Nathan Parker, Boonling Yeo, Katherine Mitchell, Mark Jenner, Lucy Levers, Wilson Salls, Ricardo Amon, Taiying Zhang University of California, Davis & California Biomass Collaborative *[email protected]/5307528108 http://biomass.ucdavis.edu/

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Page 1: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

Policy support (briefly) Urban biomass resources Forest biomass resources Agricultural biomass resources Marginal lands Biogas

USDADOE Biomass Advisory Committee

Emeryville California

November 19 2015

Stephen Kaffka Rob Williams Nic George Wan‐Ru Yang Nathan Parker Boon‐ling Yeo Katherine Mitchell Mark Jenner Lucy Levers Wilson Salls Ricardo Amon Taiying Zhang

University of California Davis amp

California Biomass Collaborative srkaffkaucdavisedu530‐752‐8108

httpbiomassucdavisedu

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Signing AB 32 The Global Warming Solutions Act

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires a 10 reduction in fuel carbon intensity by 2020 The state would also like to encourage in-state biofuel production

AB 32 is based on the assumption that climate change could be catastrophic

Governor Brownrsquos Goals

bull Executive Order B‐30‐15 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 below 1990 levels by 2030

ndash Double the efficiency savings achieved at existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner

ndash Increase from 33 to 50 renewable electricity

ndash Reduce todays petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50

bull The Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 (Senate Bill 350 DeLeoacuten 2015)

California Energy Commission‐ 2015 IEPR

4

California Biomass Resources Are Diverse Agriculture

Forestry

Urban

Total

Biomass (Million BDTyear)

Urban Agriculture Forestry Total Technical Resource

86 (from landfill stream) 125 143 354

Gross Resource

129 (landfill) 12 4 (divertedrecycled) 253 Total

258 268 779

Potential Feedstock Gross Biomass

+ 137 BCFyear landfill and digester gas

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jenkins et al (2006) A roadmap for the development of biomass in California

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 2: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Signing AB 32 The Global Warming Solutions Act

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires a 10 reduction in fuel carbon intensity by 2020 The state would also like to encourage in-state biofuel production

AB 32 is based on the assumption that climate change could be catastrophic

Governor Brownrsquos Goals

bull Executive Order B‐30‐15 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 below 1990 levels by 2030

ndash Double the efficiency savings achieved at existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner

ndash Increase from 33 to 50 renewable electricity

ndash Reduce todays petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50

bull The Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 (Senate Bill 350 DeLeoacuten 2015)

California Energy Commission‐ 2015 IEPR

4

California Biomass Resources Are Diverse Agriculture

Forestry

Urban

Total

Biomass (Million BDTyear)

Urban Agriculture Forestry Total Technical Resource

86 (from landfill stream) 125 143 354

Gross Resource

129 (landfill) 12 4 (divertedrecycled) 253 Total

258 268 779

Potential Feedstock Gross Biomass

+ 137 BCFyear landfill and digester gas

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jenkins et al (2006) A roadmap for the development of biomass in California

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 3: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Signing AB 32 The Global Warming Solutions Act

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires a 10 reduction in fuel carbon intensity by 2020 The state would also like to encourage in-state biofuel production

AB 32 is based on the assumption that climate change could be catastrophic

Governor Brownrsquos Goals

bull Executive Order B‐30‐15 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 below 1990 levels by 2030

ndash Double the efficiency savings achieved at existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner

ndash Increase from 33 to 50 renewable electricity

ndash Reduce todays petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50

bull The Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 (Senate Bill 350 DeLeoacuten 2015)

California Energy Commission‐ 2015 IEPR

4

California Biomass Resources Are Diverse Agriculture

Forestry

Urban

Total

Biomass (Million BDTyear)

Urban Agriculture Forestry Total Technical Resource

86 (from landfill stream) 125 143 354

Gross Resource

129 (landfill) 12 4 (divertedrecycled) 253 Total

258 268 779

Potential Feedstock Gross Biomass

+ 137 BCFyear landfill and digester gas

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jenkins et al (2006) A roadmap for the development of biomass in California

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 4: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Governor Brownrsquos Goals

bull Executive Order B‐30‐15 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 below 1990 levels by 2030

ndash Double the efficiency savings achieved at existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner

ndash Increase from 33 to 50 renewable electricity

ndash Reduce todays petroleum use in cars and trucks by up to 50

bull The Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 (Senate Bill 350 DeLeoacuten 2015)

California Energy Commission‐ 2015 IEPR

4

California Biomass Resources Are Diverse Agriculture

Forestry

Urban

Total

Biomass (Million BDTyear)

Urban Agriculture Forestry Total Technical Resource

86 (from landfill stream) 125 143 354

Gross Resource

129 (landfill) 12 4 (divertedrecycled) 253 Total

258 268 779

Potential Feedstock Gross Biomass

+ 137 BCFyear landfill and digester gas

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jenkins et al (2006) A roadmap for the development of biomass in California

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 5: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California Biomass Resources Are Diverse Agriculture

Forestry

Urban

Total

Biomass (Million BDTyear)

Urban Agriculture Forestry Total Technical Resource

86 (from landfill stream) 125 143 354

Gross Resource

129 (landfill) 12 4 (divertedrecycled) 253 Total

258 268 779

Potential Feedstock Gross Biomass

+ 137 BCFyear landfill and digester gas

0 20 40 60 80 100

Jenkins et al (2006) A roadmap for the development of biomass in California

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 6: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Most biofuel facilities are biodiesel manufacturers using residual Fats Oils and Greases (FOG) and some vegetable oil there are 4 larger ethanol facilities using imported corn grain attempting a shift to grain sorghum There are legacy biomass to power facilities and new AD systems to process MSW and dairy manure

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 7: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 8: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California landfilled waste stream by material type Glass 14

Metal 46Electronics 05

Plastic 96

Textiles Carpet 54

Paper amp Cardboard 173

Green Matl 115

CampD Lumber 145

Inerts amp non‐wood CampD 146

HHW 03

Special Waste 39 Mixed Residue 08

Biomass Components sum to 59

Food 155

(adapted from 2008 characterization (Cascadia 2009))

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 9: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

CRampR AD facility Perris CA (80K to 320K ty)

Landfill gas to methane CA policy will support development of AD systems for management or organic MSW residuals esp the LCFS

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 10: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential energy from landfill stream Landfill Stream

California 2010 (post recycled and black bin)

Million Tons of Total

Electricity Potential

(MWe) (GWh y-1)

Fuel Potential (MM gge)

Biogenic Material (food green CampD wood papercardboard other)

178 59 1230 10800 700

Non-Renewable Carbonaceous

(plastics textiles)

Inert (glass metal other CampD and

mineralized)

Totals

46

79

303

15

26

100

670

-1900

5900

-16700

400

-1100

CalRecycle 2010 Disposal Composition from Cascadia (2009) Energy Characterization adapted from Williams (2003)

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 11: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 12: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

High fire risk areas in California forest and rangelands FRAP 2011

Alternative fates for Californiarsquos forests

Biomass energy recovery from forest residuals and fuel load reduction can help preserve forest health and ecosystem function

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 13: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

Healthy forests significantly reduce the occurrence of severe wildfire and lower wildfire suppression costs Forest management for healthy forests whether for harvest restoration or fire hazard reduction goals produces large quantities of lsquowastersquo material suitable for biomass energy production

Only a small fraction of the total forested landscape in California can be treated with forest management prescriptions that reduce wildfire risk via operations that generate positive net revenue There is potential to expand treated forest area through the offset of harvest and hauling costs from the sale of forest residue for alternative fuel production This offset might come from an increase in the value of forest residues based on demand for their use as biofuel feedstock or from state policy that promotes their use as a low carbon fuel through carbon offsets

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 14: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Table 10b‐6 Cumulative and annual forest residue amounts Forest Variant Code and Ownership (Fig 10b‐4)

Total area treated (acres)

Forest residue cumulative total 40 yrs (BDT)1

Forest residue annual (BDTyr)

Forest residue cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (BDT tonsacre)

Merchantable timber

cumulative per acre over 40 yrs (cu ftacre)

Private WS 1439421 49075947 1226899 3410 242882 CA 1557834 44430339 1110759 2852 222120 NC 2335867 74660949 1866524 3196 226129 SO 541860 8741283 218532 1613 155443

Subtotal 5874982 176908518 4422713 Average=2768

Public WS 2770479 54695064 1367377 1974 181100

CA 1259483 21681298 542032 1722 160871

NC 754330 12037465 300937 1596 126518

SO 964707 11430056 285751 1185 103914

Subtotal 5748999 99843883 2496096 Average=1619

Total 11623981 276752401 6918810 Average = 2193

CA Inland California NC North Coast SO Southern Oregon WS Western Sierra CR Central Rockies (not included in model)

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 15: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

The project developed a new statewide resource assessment of forest biomass feedstock The assessment utilizes a knowledge base of forestry expertise developed at UC Berkeley and the Biomass Summarization Model (BioSum) a temporally dynamic spatially explicit forest stand development modelhellipthat estimates hellipon‐site woody biomass resulting from forest operations BioSum had not previously been applied statewide in California

Over the 40‐year simulation period California forests generate forest residue of about 177 million bone‐dry‐tons (BDT) on private land and 100 million BDT on federal land for a total of 277 million BDT On average this is about 7 million BDT of forest woody biomass per year across the state

The largest total cumulative amount of woody biomass comes from North Coast private lands with over 74 million BDTs Standardized on a per acre basis Western Sierra private lands have the greatest output 34 BDTacre and the Southern OregonNortheast California public lands have the least output 12 BDTacre

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 16: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential for Biofuel Production from Forest Woody Biomass Mitchell et al 2015 (STEPSITS)

GBSM was run for two conversion technologies biochemical cellulosic ethanol and gasification‐synthesis of drop‐in fuels (Fischer‐Tropsch FTD) Cellulosic ethanol biofuel production ranged from 45 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year (MGGEY) to 154 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $385gge to $485gge FTD production estimates ranged from 17 MGGEY to 241 MGGEY with minimum selling prices from $340gge to $480gge

The value of biofuels would need to be greater than those observed in the current market to make the system profitable However prices of $2000 per Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit and $075 per Renewable Fuel Standard cellulosic RIN would provide residue‐based biofuels an additional value of roughly $125gge The best performing biorefineries analyzed here are economic with the $125gge subsidy

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 17: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 18: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Current (2013) biofuel production in California‐CBC website

Biofuel Facilities (MGY) Facilities

Ethanol 179 4 Biodiesel 621 13 Totals 2411 17

There is in‐state demand for vegetables oils and other agricultural feedstocks if produced at a price that allows conversion to be profitable The price biofuel producers can pay depends in‐part on the carbon intensity of the feedstock

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 19: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California Production Differs from Other States

California Iowa Texas Nebraska Illinois $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

Food-plant $16490102 $23681 $593523 $66434 $116780 Food-animal $10793300 $10007347 $14167468 $8624935 $2422917 Feed $2408398 $10225065 $3971174 $6735085 $10318090 Fiber $409272 $32159 $1217333 $8058 $5218 Ornamentals $3725194 $107520 $987533 $50937 $458294 Other $58798 $22324 $64042 $20585 $7807 Total Value $33885064 $20418096 $21001074 $15506034 $13329106

California farmers tend to produce food crops while in other states more feed and industrial crops are produced Food crops are higher in value and more diverse

USDA NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture Jenner

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 20: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

2010 USDA Biofuels Roadmap Estimates Advanced Biofuel Production from New Capacity (billion gallons)

Region

of Total Advanced

Volume Advanced Biofuels

Total Advanced

Total Advanced

Ethanol Biodiesel Volume RFS2 Basis (1) Southeast (2) Central East (3) Northeast (4) Northwest (5)

498 433 20 46

1045 001 883 026 042 001 079 018

1046 909 042 096

1047 922 043 105

West (6) lt03 006 000 006 006 United States 2055 045 2100 2123

(1) RFS2 Basis - higher density fuels receive higher weighting relative to ethanol Biodiesel is 15 (2) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil energy cane biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues (3) Feedstocks Perennial grasses canola soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (4) Feedstocks Perennial grasses soyoil biomass (sweet) sorghum corn stover logging residues (5) Feedstocks Canolastraw logging residues (6) Feedstocks Biomass (sweet) sorghum logging residues

USDA predicted little bioenergy production from crops in California or elsewhere in the western US

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 21: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Diverse soils and landscapes lead to differing cropping systems in CA

Soil age

oldest

100K

30-80K

10K

youngest

Hardpans thick clay Soils with structured

High clay content drainage limitations salinity alkalinity

Silts loams low OM crusting

Basin rim Natural levees

350K

Hyp Landscape diversity leads to opportunities not recognized at a larger modeling scale

layers (vernal pools) horizons

A Bt C

Oak-savannarangelands

rangelandpasture some perennials

perennials annuals mostly annuals Soil use

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 22: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Average profit for all crops and acres of each or 45 Cropping System Clusters in five regions estimated using the BCAM model Size reflects cropland acres in each cluster For reference the left‐most 3‐crop cluster contains 333000 acres The 11‐crop $193acre average profit cluster contains 111800 acres NCA northern California counties CEN San Joaquin Merced Madera Stanislaus Fresno SSJ Kern Kings Tulare SCA Imperial Riverside COA Monterey San Luis Obispo (Kaffka and Jenner 2011 wwwbiomassucdavisedu )

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 23: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Regions Have Different Characteristics

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 24: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Regional differences in likely energy crop acreage adoption based on favorable price relationships with incumbents crops

00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Canola Sweet Sorghum

Sugarbeet Safflower Bermudagrass

NCA CEN SSJ SCA

Kaffka and Jenner 2011

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 25: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in

California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 26: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Steve Kaffka Nic George Jimin Zhang Bob Hutmacher

California Department of Food and AgricultureCalifornia Energy Commission and ANR grants to evaluate new bioenergy feedstock crops winter annual oilseed crops as feedstocks

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 27: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

NORTE

S

N

EW

INYO

KERN

SAN BERNARDINO

FRESNO

RIVERSIDE

SISKIYOU

TULARE

LASSEN

MODOC

MONO

SHASTA

IMPERIAL

TRINITY

SAN DIEGO

TEHAMA

HUMBOLDT

PLUMAS

MONTEREY

MENDOCINO

LOS ANGELES

LAKE

BUTTE

MADERAMERCED

KINGS

TUOLUMNE

VENTURA

GLENN

SAN LUIS OBISPO

PLACER

YOLOSONOMA

SANTA BARBARA

EL DORADO

NAPA

COLUSA

MARIPOSA

SIERRA

STANISLAUS

YUBA

NEVADA

SANBENITO

SANJOAQUIN

ALPINE

SOLANO

SANTA CLARA

ORANGE

CALAVERAS

MARIN

ALAMEDA

SUTTER

SACRAMENTO

AMADOR

CONTRA COSTA

SAN MATEO

SANTA CRUZ

SAN FRANCISCO

MOJAVE DESERT

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

NORTH COAST

NORTHEAST PLATEAU

SACRAMENTO VALLEY

GREAT BASIN VALLEYS

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES

SALTON SEA

SOUTH COAST

SOUTH CENTRAL COAST

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

SAN DIEGO

NORTH CENTRAL COAST

LAKE LAKE TAHOE

Air Basins are Delineated by Bold Black Text Labelsand Grey Boundary Lines

Counties are Delineated by Smaller Text Labelsand Thin Black Boundary Lines

California Environmental Protection AgencyAir Resources Board

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

DEL

-

Tulelake Yreka

Williams

Davis

Lodi

West Side

Paso Robles

Desert Research Station

Shandon

Parlier

Oilseed research sites located across the state Data for economic modeling comes from this and other types of agronomic research

Winter annual crops require much less irrigation water per unit of economic product than most summer crops and offer production alternatives for land despite reduced water supplies due to the increase in perennial crops in California with their ldquohardenedrdquo water demands

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 28: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

120 canola amp 105 camelina varieties from 14 public amp private breeding programs

The mean yield for canola in California across all locations amp seasons

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 29: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Canola intercropped with newly-planted pistachios in Kern County Pistachios emerge late There is a large amount of land potentially available in new or re-planted orchards and vineyards in California on a yearly basis that might produce oilseed crops in winter largely on rainfall or with limited irrigation There may be opportunities in young orchards throughout California for both Canola and Camelina winter inter-crops Estimate 100K acresy

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 30: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Modeled Erosion (Mghayr)

2 - 6

7 - 12

13 - 18

19 - 24

25 - 31

Erosion losses do not differ between biofuel crops and standard crops and modeled values correspond with literature results emphasizing that slope and cover are extremely important

They may be grown in orchard and vineyard middles When used as cover crops in orchards and vineyards biofuel crops reduce erosion compared to fallow and require no new land

Alternatively they may be used in dry‐farmed systems during the winter season when a majority of rainfall occurs and cover is needed most

Camelina shows particular potential as a cover crop thanks to its low water and nutrient demands Its use may also increase the frequency of crops in dry‐farmed systems compared to more water intensive alternatives

Dry‐farmed lands in CA Salls and Kaffka

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 31: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) BCAM is a crop rotation optimization model that estimates prices needed for new crops and crop

displacement It can work at the regional or farm level

Production function

PMP function

X e g i jg j

Peg jY eg j Ceg j X eg j

Pg i j jigjigj ig X Cg i j

X g i j

i Max Energy crop function e

Subject to X g ie j Ag j j= acres ac-ft of water i eA

P egij = farm price of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j C egij = farm cost of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j Y egij = yield of crop i and energy crop e in region g and resource j X egij = level of hectares r applied to energy crop e in region g for crop i Ᾱgj = constrained hectares of crop j in region g β gij = intercept of the quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g resource j ω gij = slope of quadratic (marginal) curve of crop i in region g and resource j

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 32: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Estimated cost per hectare to produce canola in California (base year 2012)

INPUT (per Ac) Quantity UNIT CostUnit Total

FERTILIZER $22790 Nitrogen (dry) 175 lb $074 $12950 Phosphorous (dry) 20 lb $074 $1480 Potassium (dry) 120 lb $054 $6480 Sulfur (dry) 20 lb $094 $1880 PESTICIDES $5640 Assure II 2 pint $2000 $4000 Ammonium Sulfate 4 pint $035 $140 M90 50 ml $005 $250 Capture 1 Ac $1250 $1250 SEED $4800 Canola 6 lb $800 $4800 LABOR $4717 Labor (Machine) 21 hrs 1608 $3377 Labor (non-machine) 1 hrs 134 $1340 FUEL $3087 Diesel 9 gal $343 $3087 REPAIR amp MAINTENANCE $1280 Lubricants 1 Ac $220 $220 Repair 1 Ac $1060 $1060 CUSTOM amp CONSULTANT $3137 Rental Sprayer 1 Ac $216 $216 Custom Aerial Spray 1 Ac $803 $803 Rental Ripper Shooter 1 Ac $618 $618 Soil Test 1 Ac $1500 $1500 OTHERS $26653 Overhead $ 25000 Crop Insurance $ 1000 Interest on Operative Capital $ 653 Total Cost per Acre 2012 $72104 Total Cost per Acre 2007 $65909 Yield per Acre 2500 lb

Canola Yolo County 2007

N rate (lb Nac) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Seed

yie

ld (l

bac

)

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000 yield (lbac) = 1030 + 149 (lb seed lb N ac) (r2 = 097)

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 33: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Bioenergy Crop Adoption Model (BCAM) is based on land use patterns derived from analysis of Pesticide Use Report data (California Department of Pesticide Regulation) over multiyear periods

This data reports farmer choices about what they grew and where they grew it and embodies all the factors used to make such decisions

Regionalized incumbent cropping patters are derived from this data and used to estimate entry prices location and extent of new crop adoption using BCAM

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 34: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Example land use patterns in the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Imperial Valley by sub‐region (2003‐12 data)

croptype 1 2 3 4

alfalfa 272 2949 2566 1599

barley 106 133 039 162

beans 224 115 305 729

bermudagrass 000 000 000 001

broccoli 112 020 027 227

carrot 029 023 004 047

corn 209 1267 3326 1434

cotton 3031 2545 180 963

foragefodder 005 020 088 064

garlic 719 020 000 066

lettuce 649 057 023 236

melon 243 102 035 237

oat 032 327 1787 1191

potato 000 004 229 555

rice 033 071 025 146

ryegrass 000 000 003 006

safflower 117 017 005 032

sorghum 007 008 025 027

sudangrass 003 040 113 051

sugarbeet 130 224 044 053

tomato 2974 1136 249 1028

wheat 1103 920 926 1147

croptype 1 2 3

alfalfa 2334 1117 3719

barley 005 053 006

beans 013 368 008

bermudagrass 151 691 929

broccoli 926 713 284

carrot 905 715 159

corn 526 839 227

cotton 221 152 761

foragefodder 044 102 182

garlic 005 002 010

lettuce 2067 1508 242

melon 368 603 190

oat 024 268 095

potato 101 605 029

rape 023 035 063

rice 000 002 000

ryegrass 003 041 020

safflower 001 067 000

sorghum 005 083 047

sudangrass 239 136 196

sugarbeet 635 205 1374

tomato 035 122 015

wheat 1370 1573 1445

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 35: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

southern SJV SCA Imperial ValleyPalo Verde

Cluster analyses identifying incumbent (baseline) land use patterns considered as cropping systems in different parts of the state (SAC Sacramento Valley NSJ northern San Joaquin Valley SSJ

Valley)

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 36: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Entry prices and adopted acres of canola (Yeo and Kaffka draft CEC report)

High yields are important for canola adoption

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 37: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

As yield increases crops become profitable at a lower yield and entry price declines The land needed to meet feedstock demand declines and locations where feedstock is produced to meet demand in the state change

acres Canola Canola gal needed yield yield oil biodisel for (tac) (lbac) fraction lb oilac ac 60Mgy

1 2000 0425 850 116 5152941 125 2500 0425 10625 146 4122353 15 3000 0425 1275 175 3435294 175 3500 0425 14875 204 2944538

2 4000 0425 1700 233 2576471

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 38: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

On an agro‐ecological basis there are many feedstock crop possibilities in California

Grain and sweet sorghum

Camelina

Canola mustards Salt‐tolerant perennial grasses on ldquomarginalrdquo lands

Energy beets

Source (current) in‐state capacity estimated

feedstock cost mgy $gge (2009‐10)

Grain‐based ethanol 205 currently mostly corn grain based Biodiesel 55‐60 mostly FOG Other

(potential new in‐state) New agricultural crops

ethanol 150 090 to 390

biodiesel 75 282 oilseeds (canola Camelina) Agricultural residues

rice straw 68 as CNG (gge) 4 AD units and 200K t straw dairy manure 155 as CNG

Additional FOG 40 Industry estimate

biodiesel from corn oil

ethanol 355 biodiesel 175

CNG 160

Grain sorghum sugarbeets sugarcane and energy cane use of approximately 500K ac

notes Current and potential in‐state alternative fuel production estimates

From Kaffka et al 2015STEPS‐CEC project

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 39: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 40: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Shallow groundwater areas in the San Joaquin Valley

Drainage from saline perched water tables was a significant issue in the western San Joaquin Valley

+

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 41: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Biomass Derived Alternative Fuels and Power Use of marginal lands in California for biomass feedstocks Lucia Levers Taiying Zhang Stephen Kaffka

Due to a long history of irrigated agriculture and natural characteristics the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley contains a large amount of salt affected land with shallow water tables Using this land to produce biofuelbioenergy feedstocks could keep this land in production potentially remediate it find a beneficial use for saline drainage water and support ultimate disposal of brines and trace elements and create businesses and jobs in disadvantaged areas Location and amounts of marginal land are estimated using DWR data for groundwater table height Marginal Land is categorized as Highly Marginal (Water table is lt= 5 feet to surface) and Moderately Marginalized (Water table is lt= 20 feet to surface) The WSJV is divided into sub‐regions based on groundwater sub‐basins Grasslands Kern Tulare and Westlands

Figure 1 Total Marginal Land Drainage (ac fty) over Time

Figure 2 Imported Water Groundwater Used and Marginal Land in Westlands sub‐basin over time (ac fty)

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 42: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential Energy Production ( 105 Gal of Gas Equivalent) Low and High indicate different potential Dry TonAc yields

METHODS We used conversion rates for three biomass conversion processes Gasification cellulosic ethanol and biogas Estimates were made for two drainage salinity levels 6 and 10 dSm and for three sub scenarios 50 Highly Marginal Land 100 Highly Marginal Land and 100 Moderately Marginal Land For each scenario we estimated results for three drainage water amounts Low (low surface water due to drought ‐ 2001 data is used) Med (med surface water ndash mean of 2000 to 2010 is used) and High (surface water in a high precipitation year ndash 2006 data is used) We assumed 100 of drainage water was available We also used two conversion rates from dry matter to energy low and high

CONCLUSIONS Perennial grasses like Bermuda can be grown on marginal land in the WSJV as part of an IFDM (Integrated Farm Drainage Management) system using primarily drainage water Doing so will help remediate marginal lands provide energy or income to help with final disposal of residual brines and create new biorefineries in disadvantaged communities they may provide remediation to the soil and wildlife benefits There is more marginal land in the study area than can be used for perennial grasses grown with drainage water due to drainage water limitations Substantial energy production is possible but further analysis is needed particularly a bio‐economic regional optimization model in order to look for economic feasibility

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 43: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Potential future land area for salt‐tolerant biomass production

httpwwwlatimescomlocalcaliforniala‐me‐g‐drought‐drawdowns‐and‐death‐of‐the‐salton‐sea‐20141021‐htmlstoryhtml Sources Tim Krantz professor of environmental studies Salton Sea Database program director University of Redlands Lisa Benvenuti GIS analyst University of Redlands California State

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 44: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use

bull Policy support (briefly) bull Urban biomass resources bull Forest biomass resources bull Agricultural biomass resources bull Marginal lands bull Biogas

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 45: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Table ES2 Biogas Technical Potential from California Resources

Feedstock Amount

Technically Available

Biomethane Potential (billion cubic feet)

CNG (gge)

Fraction in use

Animal Manure 34 MM BDT 197 ( 155 Mgge) lt 1

Landfill Gas 106 BCF 53 (420 Mgge) ~60

Municipal Solid Waste (food leaves grass fraction)

12 MM BDT 126 (I00 Mgge) lt 1

Waste Water Treatment Plants

118 BCF (gas) 77 (60 Mgge)

Total 93 (735 Mgge)

Williams et al CBC 2015 (774 GGEMMBTU) The potential for urban organic residue and manure‐based AD systems is large and likely to expand

Williams et al 2015 Draft Report to CRC

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 46: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Spatial distribution of dairy manure and the NG transmission network

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 47: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Renewable natural gas potential in California

CA Production Potential

10 bcfyr

Manure

146 bcfyr

Landfill Gas

55 bcfyr

96 bcfyr

WWTP

MSW (food waste)

Existing capacity (all end uses)

N Parker Based on Williams (2014)

2012 CA vehicular NG consumption

147 bcf

2022 projection

Technical Potential

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 48: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

SUMMARY Approximately 263 billion gallons of wastewater and 35 million dry tons of solid residues are produced annuallyhellip Approximately 55 percent of the wastewater is from canneries and fruit and vegetable processing with another 20 percent each from creameries and meat processinghellip Almond hulls account for nearly 60 percent of solids residue (dry basis) with almond and walnut shells contributing another 20 percenthellip Solids from fruit and vegetable processing (canneries dehydrators fresh and frozen) meat processing wineries and creameries contribute about 760000 dry tons solid residue (approximately 20 of total solids)hellip

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 49: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

California Food Processing Industry Organic Residue Assessment Amon et al 2011

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

Almond Hulls

Almond Shells

Walnuts Shells

Milk Cheese Ice Cream Butter

Fruits amp Vegetables FreshFrozen

Fruits amp Vegetables Cannery

Fruits amp Vegetables Dehydrated

Poultry Wastewater

Red Meat Wastewater

SJV Winery Wastewater

Tonsyear

LMS Total dry tons HMS Total dry tons BOD5 Total tons

Food Processing Sector

BOD5 Biogas Solids Biogas LMS Thermal Potential Residue Avail ability

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMB tu)

Power (MW)

CHP (MMBt

u) Cannery F amp V 72 25748

0 111 3946

00 High

Dehydrated F amp V 04 12530 127 4514 60

High

FreshFrozen F amp V 36 12950 0

25 8836 0

High

Winery 09 31080 167 5929 60

High

Creamery 57 20277 0

None

Poultry 1 35410 123 4385 90

None

Red Meat 38 13479 0

181 6436 70

None

Almonds 4274 19545 260

Hulls Low Shells

medium Walnuts 337 15419

02 High

Total CHP

Power Total (MW) 226 733 4611 557

Recovered Heat (MMBtu)

80356 0

2609 640

21087 162

2450036 2

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas
Page 50: Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use · Biomass Resources in California: Potential for Economic Use Policysupport (briefly) Urbanbiomass resources Forest biomass

Colony Tulare AD Project (500 tons per day)

Combined food processing wastes with current AD system at a waste water treatment plant

Photo credits City of Tulare Public Works source Jacques Franco UC Davis - Public Institute for Energy Environment and the Economy jzfrancoucdavisedu 51

  • Biomass Resources in California Potential for Economic Use
  • Policy support (briefly)
  • Urban biomass resources
  • Forest biomass resources
  • Agricultural biomass resources
  • Marginal lands
  • Biogas