bloomberg new energy finance summit 2015 new york … · michael liebreich, new york, 14 april 2015...
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BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015 NEW YORK 14 APRIL 2015
Michael Liebreich, Chairman
of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
1 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
46%
45%
36%
17%1%
31%
16%-8%
-9%15%
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital
energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-14 ($BN)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind30%
50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
7% -7%
-8%12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
2 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital
energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-14 ($BN)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind30%
50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
7% -7%
-8%12%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
30%
50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
7% -7%
-8%12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
3 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2010–14 ($2014 / BARREL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation
4 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000–14 ($2014 / BARREL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World
Bank Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation
or ?
5 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Images: Bloomberg
OIL PRICE CRASH – V OR L?
Abdalla El-Badri, Secretary General,
OPEC
“If you don’t invest in oil
and gas, you will see
more than $200”
You won’t see $100 oil
again “for a long time”
Bob Dudley CEO, BP
6 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: The Economist
THE ECONOMIST COVER, “SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE”, DECEMBER 2014
7 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0m
2m
4m
6m
8m
10m
12m
14m
16m
18m
20m
22m
1970
1972
19
74
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
19
92
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
20
06
2008
2010
2012
2014
Production
Consumption
Source: EIA
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, 1970–2014 (BARRELS PER DAY)
8 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
US VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (MILLION MILES)
Source: US Federal Highways Administration
Gap to trend:
17% in 10
years
Note: Moving 12-month total of vehicle miles travelled in the US. Created from monthly data, and not seasonally adjusted
9 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: US Department of Transportation NHTSA
US TOTAL VEHICLE FLEET FUEL EFFICIENCY, 1990–2014 (AVERAGE MILES PER GALLON)
25.424.5 24.5
31.6
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
20
04
2006
20
08
2010
2012
2014
25.424.5 24.5
31.6
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Improvement
60% in 13 years
10 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until
they're within reach of the average family.
THE FUTURE IS ELECTRIC
Images: BMW, Detroit Electric, 2015, courtesy of EVASD
The Washington
Post 1915
11 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE
Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE
WORLDWIDE, 2013
1.2 billion
ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN
USE WORLDWIDE, 2014
0.75 million (to scale)
12 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE
2010
H1 2014
m=21.6% 0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
torica
l p
rice
(U
SD
/Wh)
Cumulative production (MWh)
Li-ion EV battery
pack
13 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE
1988
1976
1998 2004
2014
2008
2010
H1 2014
m=21.6%
m=24.3%
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
torica
l p
rice
(U
SD
/W, U
SD
/Wh)
Cumulative production (MW, MWh)
Crystalline Si PV
module
Li-ion EV battery
pack
14 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Reuters/NASA
BEIJING, CHINA
15 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
SHENZHEN, CHINA
16 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: TheMarySue
SHANGHAI, CHINA
17 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons
DELHI, INDIA
18 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Greenpacks
HONG KONG
19 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Bloomberg
SINGAPORE
20 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Matt Champlin / Flickr
CAIRO, EGYPT
21 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Shinil GCP
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO
22 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: Thomas Hobbs
SAO PAULO, BRAZIL
23 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: UCLA
LOS ANGELES, USA
24 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: EarthInTransition
MOSCOW, RUSSIA
25 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: D€NNI$/Creative Commons
PARIS, FRANCE
26 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: HHRCA
LONDON, UK
27 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION
Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra
28 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, 2004-2015 (US$/MM BTU)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ICAP, Platts Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG
cargoes delivered into the Northeast Asia market.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
NBP (UK)
Henry Hub (US)
BAFA (Germanyborder price forRussian gas)
North East Asia LNG
~ $5 spread
to Henry Hub
~ $5 spread to
Henry Hub? > $8 spread
to Henry hub
29 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, 2000–14
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BCFD Number
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2015
Marcellus
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Woodford
Bakken
Antrim
Utica
Other Shale
Gas rig count
Total rig count
30 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
8002
00
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Other
North America
Russia
East Africa
West Africa
Australia
Other
North America
Russia
West Africa
North Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Qatar
Demand
Pre
-FID
O
pe
rati
on
al,
un
der
co
nstr
uc
tio
no
r p
os
t-F
ID
31 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION, 2013 (%)
Source: Oxford Energy, China Electricity Council, BDEW, UK Govt, REE, NRCAN, EIA, USEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
No data
<5%
5-10%
11-20%
21-40%
>50%
Brazil
71%
Germany
28%
India
6%
China
22%
Spain
43%
US
13%
Australia
16%
UK
19%
S. Africa
2%
Canada
76%
Japan
11%
32 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
6-CENT SOLAR – THE NEW NORMAL?
Name:
Event:
Record:
Usain Bolt
100m
9.58 seconds
Name:
Event:
Record:
Paddy Padmanathan
Solar PV
US$5.84c
33 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
FOSSIL FUEL CLEAN ENERGY
GLOBAL GROSS POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2010–30 (GW)
105
141
110
91
62 64
2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
Forecast
93
143
164
208
242
279
2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hydro
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Biomass& waste
Geotherm.
Forecast
Note: Underlying data is from GREMO 2014
34 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US & CHINA CAPACITY BUILD OUT (GW)
792 810
302575
1,094
1,384
2014 2030
Low-carbon
Fossil fuels
US
9201,163
442
1,438
1,362
2,601
2014 2030
Low-carbon
Fossil fuels
China
Existing
low-carbon
Fossil fuels
996
442
Incremental
low-carbon
575 302
442
Incremental
low-carbon
273
China’s low-carbon
additions 2015-2030
~ 90% of US 2015
capacity
35 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLES IN INDIA, 2006–22 (GW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Upto2006
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Solar 0.6 GW/year
Wind 2.5GW/year
36 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLES IN INDIA, 2006–22 (GW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Upto2006
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Solar 0.6 GW/year
Wind 2.5GW/year
Solar 6 GW/year
Wind 3 GW/year
37 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLES IN INDIA, 2006–22 (GW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Upto2006
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
X
Solar 0.6 GW/year
Wind 2.5GW/year
Solar 6 GW/year
Wind 3 GW/year
X
Modi target:
Solar 12 GW/year
Wind 8 GW/year
38 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS – HISTORIC CONSTRUCTION
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
Chart Title
0-10
11-19
20-39
40-59
60+
566 nuclear
power stations
ever built
39 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS – CURRENT CONSTRUCTION
66 nuclear power
stations under
construction
Chart Title
1
2
3-5
6-9
10+
40 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: ACEEE, NAESCO, LBNL, CEE, IAEE,
ANEEL, BNDES, KfW, Emmy, ADEME, DECC,
OFGEM, GME, GSE, AEEG, IDAE, EMCA,
JAESCO, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT VIA FORMAL FRAMEWORKS, 1990–2013 ($BN)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '13e
Japan
China
Spain
Italy
UK
France
Germany
Brazil
Canada
US
Note: Nominal dollars. Includes residential, commercial and industrial spending. For more details, see our H1 2014 Global
Energy Efficiency Market Outlook
41 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
Historical
42 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
Historical
2010
43 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
44 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
45 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
Historical
2010
46 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
2012
Historical
2010
47 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
2012
Historical
2010
48 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
Historical
2010
49 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
2014
Historical
2010
50 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24
TWh AUD trillion
GDP
2011
20122013
2014
Historical
2010
51 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
THE AGE OF
PLENTY…
…THE AGE OF
COMPETITION
52 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Images: Various; Wikimedia
OIL AND GAS MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS
53 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
IMPACT OF LOWER OIL AND GAS PRICES ($BN/YR)
Note: Calculation based on $5 drop in natural gas price and $50 drop in oil price; based on
import/export volumes 2011-2013, excluding impact of changes in volumes since then Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; CIA Fact Book; IEA; EIA; World Bank; IMF
??? Asia
+ 393 billion
Europe
+ 300 billion
USA
+ 180 billion
Latin America
- $60 billion
Canada
- $40 billion
Norway
- $53 billion
North Africa
- $62 billion
Middle East
- $357 billion
Sub-Saharan Africa
- $89 billion
Russia & C. Asia
- $218 billion
54 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: Data comes from the IEA Global Statistics database. Where actual 2013 data was unavailable, IEA produced an estimate
figure Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
COAL DEPENDENCY, G20, 2013 (% OF PRIMARY ENERGY)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
G20 average 33%
55 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Notes: Bloomberg New Energy Finance base case build forecasts; historical build from EIA Form 860 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US CAPACITY BUILD, 2008–20 (GW)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Renewables Other
Up to 23GW of US
coal capacity coming
offline in 2015
56 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Chinese Government
CHINA COAL CONSUMPTION, 2000-14 (MILLION TONS)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
57 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
In the old world, I’m selling
whale oil.
In the developing world,
I’m selling crack cocaine.
CONFESSIONS OF A COAL TRADER
Anonymous
coal trader
58 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007–15 (2014 US$/TONNE)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ARA
Newcastle
59 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: Values as of 01 April 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013–15 YTD
0
50
100
150
200
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15
S&P 500 Oil & Gas
Stowe Global Coal
NEX
60 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
PARIS COP 21 – DECEMBER 2015
61 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Notes: Countries’ inclusion of land-use and forestry in emissions calculations vary. China’s 2020 target estimated from
announced emissions intensity target per unit GDP, and no absolute emissions level set for its 2030 pledge.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
UNFCCC
EMERGING COMMITMENTS FOR COP21 IN PARIS (MTCO2E)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2030 targettrajectory
2020 targettrajectory
Historicalemissions
EU
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2030 targettrajectory
2020 targettrajectory
Historicalemissions
Japan
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2025 targettrajectory
2020 targettrajectory
Historicalemissions
US
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2030 targettrajectory
2020 targetlevel
Historicalemissions
China
62 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
● System right-sizing
● Sale of surplus power
● Resilience
(back-up)
● System management
and maintenance
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GRID DEFECTION – I DON’T THINK SO
● Distribution charges
● Resilience
(black-out)
● Sense of
independence
Don’t defect? Defect?
63 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Having a solar panel that isn’t
connected to the grid is like
having a computer that’s not
connected to the Internet.
GRID DEFECTION?
Ellen Hayes, PG&E
spokeswoman
Picture: Ellen Hayes
64 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
100
200
300
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Note: Other includes taxes, levies, carbon costs, profits
COMPOSITION OF RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ACROSS THE WORLD, 2008-2014 (EUR/MWh)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other
Network costs
Wholesale power
New South Wales (Aus)
Germany
UK
Spain
Denmark
0
100
200
300
400
2010 2011 2012 20130
100
200
300
400
20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
100
200
300
400
200920102011201220132014
0
100
200
300
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Australian Energy Regulator, Eurostat Bloomberg New Energy Finance
65 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
66 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Old world
$$$
67 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Old world
$$$
Age of plenty
68 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Old world
$$$
$$$
Age of plenty
69 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Old world
Age of plenty $$$
70 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
Old world
$$$ Age of plenty
71 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
EON SPLIT
72 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - STARTUPS
Behavioural
engagement
Smart thermostats,
home automation
Load disaggregation
Solar PV and
energy monitoring
HEM tools
Smart
thermostats
Smart
thermostats
Connected home
/ IoT
Load
disaggregation Heating controls
73 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICES FROM INCUMBENTS
Home energy
management
HIVE home
heating
controls
Virtual mobile
operator – 80k
customers
Smart home
partnerships/investment
IHD and smart
thermostat
program
BEMS for DR
and energy
efficiency
Smart thermostats
and load
disaggregation
Integrated smart homes
Smart lighting
/ home
automation
Smart
thermostats and
‘behavioural’ DR
Residential
energy
storage
HEM tools
and DR
Smart
thermostats to
reduce churn
74 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - MAJORS
HEMS
platform
DR and retail
services
Energy supply and
services
Smart home
hubs
Registered
energy supplier
Smart home
platform (AT&T)
Home
automation HomeKit
1m connected
home customers
Digital Life
connected
home service
Nest
acquisition Home
automation
Home automation
75 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICE BUNDLES
Bundled insurance,
telecoms and energy
Bundled electricity
telecoms services
Bundled electricity,
entertainment and
home automation
Bundled telecoms and
energy
Bundled telecoms,
energy. Residential
energy storage.
Bundled telecoms,
electricity supply
beginning in 2016
Bundled telecoms,
electricity and gas
76 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD
HIVE home
heating
controls
Residential
energy
storage
Smart
thermostats to
reduce churn
BEMS for DR
and energy
efficiency
Digital Life
connected
home service
1m connected
home customers
Smart home
platform
(AT&T)
Smart home
hubs
???
Bundled electricity,
entertainment and
home automation
HEMS
platform
DR and retail
services
Energy supply and
services
Virtual mobile
operator – 80k
customers
Registered
energy supplier Bundled telecoms and
energy supply
Smart home
partnerships/investment
Smart lighting
/ home
automation
Bundled telecoms,
electricity supply
beginning in 2016
Bundled insurance,
telecoms and energy
Bundled electricity
telecoms services
HEM tools
and DR
IHD and smart
thermostat
program
Home energy
management
77 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
APPLE’S SOLAR SHOPPING SPREE
$850 billion
Over 25 years
78 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Images: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
SELECTED COMMERCIAL BUILDERS OR BUYERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
79 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume
capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in
countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was
commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q1 2015 figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an
annual basis only.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
30% 50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
-7% -8% 12% 7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
80 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Note: This shows the percentage yield of 30 year generic government bond rates downloaded on 09/04/2015 from the
Bloomberg Terminal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
YIELD ON 30-YEAR BONDS, 1977-2015 (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
US
Eurozone
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
81 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Photo: ZDF / Jan Böhmermann?
CAVEAT – GREXIT
82 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
Bloomberg Terminal
GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, 2007-14 ($BN)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
ABS
Project
US municipal
Labelledcorporate
Supranational,sovereign &agency
83 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
Bloomberg Terminal
GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, 2007-14 ($BN)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
ABS
Project
US municipal
Labelledcorporate
Supranational,sovereign &agency
84 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015
???
Operating
Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of
CO2 per year as of 2015
300 Gt
CO2/year
New Zealand
Tokyo
Republic of Korea
Kazakhstan
EU ETS
Ca ETS Switzerland
RGGI
Quebec
7x Chinese pilot
projects
85 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015
???
Operating
Under
consideration
Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of
CO2 per year as of 2015
300 Gt
CO2/year
New Zealand
National Japanese
system
Tokyo
Republic of Korea
National Chinese
System
Russia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Turkey
EU ETS
Ca ETS Switzerland
RGGI
Quebec
British
Columbia
Manitoba
Ontario
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Sao Paulo
Rio de
Janiero
Thailand
7x Chinese pilot
projects
86 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume
capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in
countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was
commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q1 2015 figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an
annual basis only.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
30% 50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
-7% -8% 12% 7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
87 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume
capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in
countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was
commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q1 2015 figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an
annual basis only.
-15%
30% 50%
27%
12% -9%
35%
-7% -8% 12% 7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
88 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN)
Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume
capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in
countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was
commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q1 2015 figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an
annual basis only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Capex of top 20 quoted oil
and gas companies plus top
20 quoted coal companies
-15%
30% 50%
27%
12% -9%
35% 7%
-7% -8% 12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1
Expected
Large hydro
Other
Solar
Wind
89 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
90 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit
CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN)
Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
?
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