blue book market r eport - pr newswire
TRANSCRIPT
MARKET REPORTBlue Book
Andrew Nicolai Director, Public Relations949.293.5241 | [email protected]
Wholesale Market Showed Strength in Q1 2018 with New Tax Bill Driving Up Demand
FIRST QUARTER 2018
• The used-car market remained strong in the first quarter of 2018, falling only 0.6 percent compared to 2017, when Kelley Blue Book® Auction Values fell 2 percent, or $332 per unit. The recent change in the tax bill provided many consumers with a considerable amount of disposable income for purchasing vehicles and influenced high demand for buyers at auction.
• Retention values for 1- to 3-year-old vehicles climbed 0.1 percent in Q1, ending the quarter with a 0.2 percent year-over-year gain. Wholesale retention values are looking to stay strong up until the start of summer, and then they generally drop quickly from seasonal factors.
• Market value disparity between cars and SUVs/crossovers were evident in Q1 2018, as cars experienced an 8.8 percent decrease year-over-year in retention values, while SUVs/crossovers saw a 5.7 percent increase year-over-year. Relatively low retail fuel prices and a stable economy has favored SUVs/crossovers in recent years and this trend is expected to continue. Used-car values in the second quarter of 2018 are expected to follow in a similar trend to 2017, but the drop may be delayed due to the current strength in demand.
• Hybrid and electric vehicles distinctively saw the biggest increase in wholesale values in Q1 2018, due to their increasing popularity and demand amidst increasing gas prices, ending the quarter up 14.4 percent for electric vehicles and 7.9 percent for hybrid vehicles.
• MINI and FIAT experienced the highest increase in year-over-year retention values among non-luxury brands in Q1 2018, with MINI at an impressive 13 percent and FIAT at 9 percent, driven by unusually high demand compared to 2017. On the luxury side, BMW and Cadillac experienced a moderate 5 percent increase in year-over-year retention values among luxury brands, followed closely by Jaguar, up 4 percent. These luxury brands have a competitive mix of cars and SUVs in their lineups, which helps drive these gains.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted regular gasoline retail prices are expected to be an average of $2.71 per gallon during the summer driving season, up compared to last year’s average of $2.41 per gallon.
Brenna Buehler Senior Manager, Public Relations 909.225.4643 | [email protected]
Nichole Mrasek Senior Manager, Public Relations679.429.7627 | [email protected]
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
$18,000
$19,000
$20,000
$21,000
$22,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Auct
ion
Valu
e
Auction Values, 2018 YTD
CY 2016
CY 2017
CY 2018
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, 1- to 3-year-old vehicles
2 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Reta
ined
Val
ue (A
uctio
n Va
lue/
MSR
P)
Retained Value, 2018 YTD
CY 2016
CY 2017
CY 2018
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, 1- to 3-year-old vehicles
80%
78%
77%
76%
75%
73%
72%
71%
70%
69%
69%
69%
69%
68%
68%
67%
67%
67%
67%
64%
63%
62%
62%
59%
58%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Sporty Compact Car
Luxury High Performance CarLuxury Sports Car
Mid-size Pickup Truck
Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover
High Performance Car
Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover
High-end Luxury CarLuxury Compact SUV/Crossover
Electric Vehicle
Hybrid/Alternative Energy Car
Full-size SUV/CrossoverVan
AverageMid-size SUV/Crossover
Compact SUV/Crossover
Luxury Car
Subcompact SUV/CrossoverSports Car
Minivan
Full-size Pickup Truck
Compact Car
Entry-level Luxury Car
Mid-size CarFull-size Car
Subcompact Car
Retained Value, MY 2017
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016 Vehicles
3 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
20%
4%
6%
0%
1%
1%
-3%
1%
0%
7%
2%
-1%
-3%
-1%
0%
-1%
-1%
2%
-1%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-7%
-12%
-16% -6% 4% 14% 24%
Electric VehicleSubcompact Car
Luxury CarMid-size CarFull-size Car
Compact CarEntry-level Luxury Car
MinivanSubcompact SUV/Crossover
Hybrid/Alternative Energy CarCompact SUV/Crossover
High-end Luxury CarFull-size Pickup Truck
Sports CarAverage
Luxury Compact SUV/CrossoverMid-size SUV/Crossover
VanFull-size SUV/Crossover
Luxury Full-size SUV/CrossoverLuxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover
High Performance CarLuxury Sports Car
Sporty Compact CarMid-size Pickup Truck
Luxury High Performance Car
Year-over-Year Point Change, Retained Value
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016 vs 2015
4 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
-10.5%-6.3%
-5.3%-5.0%-4.9%-4.6%-4.5%-4.4%-4.0%-3.9%-3.8%-3.7%-3.2%-2.6%-2.5%-2.5%-2.4%-2.3%-1.9%-1.7%-1.5%-1.4%-1.0%-0.9%-0.6%-0.3%
0.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%1.2%1.3%
5.8%5.9%
-22.0% -17.0% -12.0% -7.0% -2.0% 3.0% 8.0% 13.0%
Alfa RomeoFIAT
JaguarVolvo
INFINITILincoln
LexusChrysler
BuickGenesis
AudiLand Rover
CadillacAcurasmart
PorscheGMC
AverageJeep
VolkswagenMercedes-Benz
BMWRam
SubaruMazda
KiaFord
HyundaiToyota
ChevroletDodgeNissanHonda
MitsubishiScionMINI
Q1 to Date Change (%) by Manufacturer
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, 1 to 3 year old vehicles
-6.4%-4.1%-3.9%-3.7%-3.2%-2.9%-2.7%-2.5%-2.2%-1.8%-1.7%-1.5%-1.2%
-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%
0.1%0.3%0.6%0.8%1.1%
1.8%3.7%
4.5%7.9%
14.4%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Luxury High Performance CarLuxury Full-size SUV/Crossover
Full-size SUV/CrossoverEntry-level Luxury Car
Luxury Mid-size SUV/CrossoverLuxury Compact SUV/Crossover
Mid-size SUV/CrossoverLuxury Sports Car
Luxury CarHigh-end Luxury Car
Mid-size Pickup TruckAverageMinivan
High Performance CarFull-size Car
Full-size Pickup TruckSporty Compact Car
Mid-size CarCompact SUV/Crossover
Subcompact CarVan
Subcompact SUV/CrossoverSports Car
Compact CarHybrid/Alternative Energy Car
Electric Vehicle
Q1 to Date Change (%) by Segment
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, 1 to 3 year old vehicles
5 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
53%
57%
57%
57%
58%
59%
61%
61%
61%
63%
63%
63%
64%
68%
68%
69%
73%
75%
77%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
FIAT
Mitsubishi
Volkswagen
Ram
Chrysler
Hyundai
Nissan
Kia
Dodge
Chevrolet
Ford
Average
GMC
Jeep
Toyota
Mazda
Honda
Subaru
MINI
Retained Value, MY 2017Non-Luxury Brands
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016
6 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
-4%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
9%
13%
-6.0% -1.0% 4.0% 9.0% 14.0%
Subaru
GMC
Chevrolet
Volkswagen
Mitsubishi
Toyota
Honda
Ram
Ford
Kia
Jeep
Hyundai
Average
Nissan
Dodge
Mazda
Chrysler
FIAT
MINI
Year-over-Year Point Change, Retained ValueNon-Luxury Brands
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016 vs 2015
7 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
59%
59%
65%
66%
68%
68%
69%
70%
70%
71%
72%
73%
77%
80%
92%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
Buick
Lincoln
INFINITI
Cadillac
Mercedes-Benz
Audi
Volvo
Alfa Romeo
BMW
Average
Jaguar
Acura
Lexus
Land Rover
Porsche
Retained Value, MY 2017Luxury Brands
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016
8 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
-12%
-6%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
5%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Alfa Romeo
Volvo
INFINITI
Mercedes-Benz
Land Rover
Audi
Lexus
Average
Acura
Buick
Lincoln
Porsche
Jaguar
Cadillac
BMW
Year-over-Year Point Change, Retained ValueLuxury Brands
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights, Model Year 2016 vs 2015
9 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
$3.25
$3.50
$3.75
$4.00
Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec Dec
Fuel
Pric
es
Fuel PricesRegular Retail Gasoline
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
$2.65
Year Chart (Hi/Lo) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year2018 $2.55 $2.59 $2.592017 $2.37 $2.30 $2.32 $2.42 $2.39 $2.36 $2.31 $2.38 $2.63 $2.51 $2.55 $2.49 $2.422016 $1.98 $1.76 $1.93 $2.11 $2.25 $2.36 $2.21 $2.18 $2.22 $2.25 $2.18 $2.28 $2.142015 $2.14 $2.22 $2.46 $2.47 $2.72 $2.80 $2.79 $2.67 $2.41 $2.29 $2.18 $2.04 $2.43
Average Fuel Prices By Month ($)
10 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
MAKE Q1 Change (%)MINI 5.9%Scion 5.8%Mitsubishi 1.3%Honda 1.2%Nissan 0.5%
MAKE Q1 Change (%)Alfa Romeo -10.5%FIAT -6.3%Jaguar -5.3%Volvo -5.0%INFINITI -4.9%
Bottom 5 Performing Brands - Auction Value
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
Top 5 Performing Brands - Auction Value
SEGMENT Q1 Change (%)Electric Vehicle 14.4%Hybrid/Alternative Energy Car 7.9%Compact Car 4.5%Sports Car 3.7%Subcompact SUV/Crossover 1.8%
SEGMENT Q1 Change (%)Luxury High Performance Car -6.4%Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover -4.1%Full-size SUV/Crossover -3.9%Entry-level Luxury Car -3.7%Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover -3.2%
Top 5 Performing Segments - Auction Value
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
Bottom 5 Performing Segments - Auction Value
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
11 BLUE BOOK MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018
About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com) Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides market-reflective values on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Kelley Blue Book® Price Advisor tool, which provides a range for what consumers can reasonably expect to pay for a vehicle in their area. Car owners looking to sell immediately can also get a redeemable, transaction-ready offer with Kelley Blue BookSM Instant Cash Offer. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book launched its first international consumer-facing site in 2017. Kelley Blue Book is a Cox Automotive brand.
These statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.
About Cox Automotive Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling and owning cars easier for everyone. The global company’s 34,000-plus team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across 100+ countries and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with revenues exceeding $20 billion. coxautoinc.com
MAKE MODEL Q1 Change (%)MINI Countryman 24.5%BMW i3 22.2%Mercedes-Benz B-Class 20.1%Kia Cadenza 17.0%Kia Forte 12.0%Dodge Viper 10.6%Ram C/V Tradesman 10.0%Ford Focus 9.9%Toyota Prius 9.5%Chevrolet Express 2500 Cargo 8.8%
MAKE MODEL Q1 Change (%)Jaguar XF -11.9%BMW i8 -10.4%Cadillac XTS -9.5%INFINITI Q70 -9.2%Audi R8 -8.0%Lincoln Navigator -7.8%Ford Expedition -7.8%INFINITI Q50 -7.5%Kia K900 -7.3%Volkswagen Tiguan -6.9%
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
MY 2015 - 2017, Kelley Blue Book Auction Value
Top 10 Performing Models - Auction Value
Bottom 10 Performing Models - Auction Value