Blur the Boundaries – For a New Hub Blur the Boundaries – For a New Hub of Asian Sub-Regionalismof Asian Sub-Regionalism

ByBy KPV NairKPV Nair

Churning the ocean - Angkor carvingChurning the ocean - Angkor carving

First mythical joint venture between Devas and Asuras , a First mythical joint venture between Devas and Asuras , a case case

of rivals uniting for a common gain : Amrita (Elixir) for of rivals uniting for a common gain : Amrita (Elixir) for universal hegemony universal hegemony

The crises : Blessings in disguise?

• Calamities come together, but some of them as blessings in disguise

• India realizes its infrastructural inadequacies, surge in road building ; rise in people’s income level and quality of life

• As far-sighted as ever, China finds new avenues of cheap acquisitions in energy, minerals and chemicals from every known source around the world

• Constructive capitalist culture – millions won’t have to starve for multiplying the number of billionaires. World opinion favours more inclusive growth

• Awareness of the three major ‘threats of volatile energy prices, food scarcity and climate change: UN ESCAP

Re-defining Multilateralism

• Congrats Cambodia! Its laudable initiative announced on March 11. Passport holders from Vietnam, Laos and Thailand allowed to travel within the country for a month. Will strengthen trade, tourism and solidarity, while still remaining within the ASEAN and GMS groupings with a lot of achievements to their own credit.

• Mekong countries’ multiple level success in stark contrast with the failure of SAARC. The role of India and Pakistan.

• Multilateralism defies definitions. Small and less developed countries more aware of the need for additional / alternative mechanisms .

Asia’s Political and Economic outlook

• Asia’s political and economic outlook: there are enough reasons to be positive in general. Definite answers difficult when Terrorism as uninvited Foreign Direct Investment targeting potentially progressive countries.

• Forecast for India: With annual exports and imports lower by 20- 25 % until February this year, real estate tending to find buyers at prices just 30% lower, lowering commodity prices and idle liquidity still awaiting opportunities, GDP variations not to seriously affect the balancing of economic fundamentals. India may face stagnation for a time, not recession nor depression.

• Links between politics and economics? Plenty in Asia, including India and China. Remember Bank of China’s I P O about 5 years back ? Even with nearly 35% N.P.A the offer was subscribed by over 200 percent at the closing in Hong Kong.

Political and Economic outlook (contd..)

• Observers wondered, by highlighting such economic success, did Chinese leaders want to convince the common man that their administrative system was the ideal one for the country ? China’s political strength always favourably impacts its economic and geo-political agenda. Offer of $18 billion to Thailand in the 97 crisis showed its leadership qualities.

• One reason for India’s temporary well being may be the large amount of cash that will be circulating during the coming general elections. India’s insurgency is both political and economic in origin.

• Recent price rise of Tea partly due to politics in India. Huge pay rise for govt. employees is economic by nature but arguably political in motivation.

Lessons to learn and the way ahead

• There are many lessons to learn from the current crises. Are the various stimuli by the US, China and others anything more than a first aid treatment? The depth of the crises varies from country to country.

• The existing regional cooperative mechanisms provide some sense of security even to the weaker constituents. But it is essential for them to look for alternative economic alignments even while remaining within the larger groupings like SAARC and ASEAN.

• Peripheral areas of most countries are deprived of the prosperity seen around the Centre. Example : India’s North East and China’s South West whose per capita is only about 50% of the national average. In such situations sub-regional cooperation an effective means of mitigating the miseries of the crises.

Need for a new Asian Sub–Regional grouping • For the purpose of today’s debate, I have chosen a

tans-national sub-region where I have been personally engaged for at least ten years.

• It covers an area, unfamiliar to many, literally covering the Roof of the World, comprising at least five countries or parts thereof, namely Nepal, Bhutan, parts of Myanmar, China and India and possibly Bangladesh.

Special features of the proposed Sub-Region

• Abode of Gods and Goddesses of Hindu and Buddhist pantheon, Ethnic migrations. Religious tolerance

• Origin of all the major Asian rivers with several lakes and mountains. Even tea originated here, ecologically unique.

• Tangible and intangible heritage, Part of Southern Silk Route, Tea & Horse civilization

• Centrally located, Geographically contiguous and culturally convergent. India – China interface

• Stunningly beautiful with endless attractions, most diverse in bio-resources - all inviting to be extensively exploited

• Could herald the much awaited Asian century.

BCIM cooperation (Kunming Initiative)BCIM cooperation (Kunming Initiative)

Aimed at sub-regional cooperation among Bangladesh, China,Aimed at sub-regional cooperation among Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar. Despite good intentions the project not yet India and Myanmar. Despite good intentions the project not yet

institutionalized and still function on track two level. The obstacles institutionalized and still function on track two level. The obstacles are many both economic and geopolitical.are many both economic and geopolitical.

International participants at the Lhasa International participants at the Lhasa conference on cooperation between Tibet and conference on cooperation between Tibet and

neighbour countries 2005neighbour countries 2005

The two day conference was organized by UNDP and China’s MOFCOM

Border Trade between India and China at Nathula-LaBorder Trade between India and China at Nathula-La

This strategic Tibet-Sikkim border pass, 14,000 ft above This strategic Tibet-Sikkim border pass, 14,000 ft above sea level, was opened for restricted official trade in 2006. sea level, was opened for restricted official trade in 2006.

Picture shows flourishing Border Trade between Picture shows flourishing Border Trade between

Ruli in China’s Yunnan and Myanmar’s MuseRuli in China’s Yunnan and Myanmar’s Muse

With annual turnover of $830 million many goods sold to With annual turnover of $830 million many goods sold to Myanmar find their way to Northeast India and beyond.Myanmar find their way to Northeast India and beyond.

Indian and Chinese participants at the K2K Indian and Chinese participants at the K2K conference at Dali Yunnanconference at Dali Yunnan

The MOU signed upgraded the conference to Forum level . The MOU signed upgraded the conference to Forum level . Joint feasibility studies are now been conducted. Joint feasibility studies are now been conducted.

West Bengal Tourism Department Corpn. at West Bengal Tourism Department Corpn. at Kunming Trade Fair in 2004Kunming Trade Fair in 2004

Asia Centre facilitated this first ever Asia Centre facilitated this first ever participation with the co-operation of CCPIT. Visitors participation with the co-operation of CCPIT. Visitors included many from minority communities.included many from minority communities.

China Eastern Airways introduces direct flight China Eastern Airways introduces direct flight between Kunming and Kolkata Nov.2007between Kunming and Kolkata Nov.2007

Inauguration of the flight coincided with the International Travel MartInauguration of the flight coincided with the International Travel Mart

Signing of MOU between Indian Chamber of Commerce Signing of MOU between Indian Chamber of Commerce and Yunnan Chamber of Commerce in Kolkataand Yunnan Chamber of Commerce in Kolkata

The delegates from Yunnan also participated in The delegates from Yunnan also participated in Guwahati Trade Fair of Northeastern India. Guwahati Trade Fair of Northeastern India.

The World War II Stillwell road : the original The World War II Stillwell road : the original ( left ) and the reconstructed( left ) and the reconstructed

China is eager to reopen the historical road which stretches from China is eager to reopen the historical road which stretches from Ledo in Assam to Kunming through Myanmar for opening trade and Ledo in Assam to Kunming through Myanmar for opening trade and tourism route to Eastern India and Bangladesh. The project is yet to tourism route to Eastern India and Bangladesh. The project is yet to take off due to Sino - Indian differences. Enormous potential as an take off due to Sino - Indian differences. Enormous potential as an economic corridor making Asian triangle.economic corridor making Asian triangle.

Thank YouThank You