boeing’s outlook on emerging air cargo market january 24, 2008

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Dr. Dinesh Keskar Senior Vice President – Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

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Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008. Dr. Dinesh Keskar Senior Vice President – Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Agenda. World Air Cargo Forecast India Cargo Market Boeing Freighter Products Summary. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Dr. Dinesh Keskar Senior Vice President – Sales,Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Boeing’s Outlook on EmergingAir Cargo MarketJanuary 24, 2008

Page 2: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

AgendaAgenda

• World Air Cargo Forecast

• India Cargo Market

• Boeing Freighter Products

• Summary

Page 3: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

World Air Cargo Grew 5.1% in October 2007 Relative to Traffic Levels of October 2006

World Air Cargo Grew 5.1% in October 2007 Relative to Traffic Levels of October 2006

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA and the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast.

Mo

nth

ly P

erce

nta

ge

Ch

ang

e O

ver

Pri

or

Yea

r

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000

Jan

uary

2001

Jan

uary

2002

Jan

uary

2003

Jan

uary

2004

Jan

uary

2005

Jan

uary

2006

Jan

uary

2007

Jan

uary

Mo. % Change - History

12-Mo. Avg. History

Page 4: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

World Air Cargo Traffic Is Expected To Triple Over the Next 20 Years

World Air Cargo Traffic Is Expected To Triple Over the Next 20 Years

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History Forecast

Average annual growth, 2005 to 2025

High 6.9%Base 6.1%Low 5.3%

5.1% growth per year

RTKs, billions

HighBaseLow

YEAR

Page 5: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

As intra-Asia, Transpacific and Europe-Asia routes will lead growth, the market will increasingly demand long range, low tonne-kilometer cost service.

World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple, and Asia Will Lead Industry Growth

World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple, and Asia Will Lead Industry Growth

Asia- North America: 7.1% Average Annual Growth through 2025

Intra-Asia: 8.6% Average Annual

Growth through 2025

Europe-Asia: 6.9% Average

Annual Growth through 2025

Page 6: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

36%

31%

33%

In-Service Freighter Fleet will Double–With a Shift Toward Widebody Freighters

In-Service Freighter Fleet will Double–With a Shift Toward Widebody Freighters

2026

3,980freighters

42%

34%

24%

2006

1,980 freighters

Large (>80 tonnes)

Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)

Standard-body (<45 tonnes)

Page 7: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

3,980

Passenger32,440

Y2026

Freighters

Freighters Will Remain ~11% of the World’s Jet In-Service Fleet in the Future

Freighters Will Remain ~11% of the World’s Jet In-Service Fleet in the Future

36,420 Airplanes

1,980

Passenger16,250

Y2006

Freighters

18,230 Airplanes

Page 8: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Single-Aisle62%

Twin-aisle20%

Regional Jets13%

00.0160860.0321720.0482580.0643440.080430.0965160.1126020.1286880.1447740.160860.1769460.1930320.2091180.2252040.241290.2573760.2734620.2895480.3056340.321720.3378060.3538920.3699780.3860640.402150.4182360.4343220.4504080.4664940.482580.4986660.5147520.5308380.5469240.563010.5790960.5951820.6112680.6273540.643440.6595260.6756120.6916980.7077840.723870.7399560.7560420.7721280.7882140.80430.8203860.8364720.8525580.8686440.884730.9008160.9169020.9329880.9490740.965160.9812460.9973321.013418

Future Deliveries of New Aircraft2007 - 2026

Future Deliveries of New Aircraft2007 - 2026

MediumWidebody

26%

Total: 870

Freighters3%

Large2%

LargeFreighters

72%

Total: 28,600

Standard-body 2%

Page 9: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2006 2026

Freighter Fleet Growth Forecast Thru 2026 Nearly Three-Quarters Will Be Converted Units

Freighter Fleet Growth Forecast Thru 2026 Nearly Three-Quarters Will Be Converted Units

Freighter aircraft, units

Fleet additions,3,350 units

Current/retained fleet

Conversion market

New freighters

~630 units

Page 10: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Future Freighter Deliveries New and Converted 2007-2026

Future Freighter Deliveries New and Converted 2007-2026

1,270converted

630new

460converted

750converted

220new

Large1,090 total

Medium Widebody970 total

Standard-body1,290 total

Total 3,350 Units(2,480 Converted, 870 New)

Standard-body (<45 tonnes)Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)Large (>80 tonnes)

20 new

Page 11: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

North America Asia-Pacific Europe and CIS Africa andMiddle East

Latin America

Large

Medium widebody

Standard-body

Asia Will Receive the Most Large FreightersNumber of New and Converted Airplanes, 2007-2026

Asia Will Receive the Most Large FreightersNumber of New and Converted Airplanes, 2007-2026

Page 12: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

India’s Cargo Market

Page 13: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

India GDP growth has averaged well over 6% over the last 10 years

India GDP growth has averaged well over 6% over the last 10 years

India GDP Growth

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Year

GD

P G

row

th (

%)

ActualForecast

Source: The Economist

Page 14: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Increased Twin Aisle Deliveries to India Will Boost Belly Cargo

Y2007 - Y2026

Increased Twin Aisle Deliveries to India Will Boost Belly Cargo

Y2007 - Y2026

Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2007

*In year 2006 dollars Catalogue Prices

Type 2006(Units)

2007(Units)

2007 Dollars*(Billions)

Regional Jets 51 55 $1.72Single Aisle 676 674 $45.58Twin Aisle 120 173 $35.26

747 and Larger 9 9 $3.44TOTAL 856 911 $86.0

Page 15: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 9.9% per Year Over the Last 5 Years Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 9.9% per Year Over the Last 5 Years

Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006

EuropeFar East AsiaMiddle EastSouthwest AsiaAfricaNorth AmericaCIS

Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands

Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India

Page 16: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Europe, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise India’s Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic FlowsEurope, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise India’s Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic Flows

Europe to India: 122.8 / 7.3%

Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India, Financial Year 2005-2006 data. Non-Scheduled (charter) and sea-air traffic NOT included.

India to Europe :

187.3 / 7.3%

Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands & historic five-year growth rate, percentage

Middle East to India: 57.1 / 17.9%

India to the Middle East: 151.1 / 6.0%

India to Far East Asia: 87.9 / 8.7%

Far East Asia to India: 121.3 /

18.7%

Page 17: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Leading Indian Air Cargo AirportsLeading Indian Air Cargo Airports

The size of the Indian international and domestic air freight market in 2006 was estimated to be ~1,500,000 tonnes, up about 10% from 2005. Leading air freight airports in terms of tonnage were:

Mumbai: 478,600

Delhi: 398,437

Chennai: 233,769

Bangalore: 165,406

Kolkata: 83,528

Page 18: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Expand at 9.1% per Year, Although from a Small Base

Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Expand at 9.1% per Year, Although from a Small Base

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History Forecast

Average annual growth,

2005 to 2025

High 10.0%Base 9.1%Low 8.1%

Tonnes, thousands

12.5% growth per year

HighBaseLow

Page 19: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

TOTAL DOMESTIC CARGO CARRIED BY ALL SCHEDULED AND NON-SCHEDULED OPERATORS IN INDIA

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

*19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-00

20

00

-01

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

YEAR

CA

RG

O C

AR

RIE

D (

TO

NN

ES

)

SCHDEDULED NATIONAL CARRIES

SCHDEDULED PRIVATE CARRIERS

SCHEDULED CARGO OPERATOR*

Private carriers are leading the way in cargo carried

Private carriers are leading the way in cargo carried

Source: India DGCA

Page 20: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Current India Freighter FleetCurrent India Freighter Fleet

Source: AirClaims reported as of Nov 14, 2007.

In-Service Freighter Fleet Consists of 12 Aircraft

Mfr & Type Air India Blue Dart Crescent Air Grand TotalAirbus A310-300F 2 2Boeing 737-200F Adv 3 4 7Boeing 757-200SF 2 2Fokker 50 (Bulk Freighter) 1 1Grand Total 5 6 1 12

Page 21: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Boeing Offers Freighter Solutions For Every Market

Boeing Offers Freighter Solutions For Every Market

Page 22: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Record Freighter OrdersRecord Freighter Orders

Boeing freighters sets third consecutive record sales year

2005 2006 200774

Note: Orders reflected are net orders for the year.

81 83

Page 23: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

0

45(100)

136(300)

91(200)

• Revenue payload does not include tare weight.* Boeing assessment.

Boeing Airbus

747-8 F

747-400BCF747-400F/-ERF

767-300F767-300BCF A300-600F

A380F*

767-200SF

757-200SF

737-700C

777 Freighter

Revenue payload 1,000-kg (1,000-lb)

A300-600P2F

A310P2F

MD-11BCF

Boeing offers a complete line of freighters to meet the market needs

Boeing offers a complete line of freighters to meet the market needs

A330-200F

Page 24: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Carries Industry-standard3-m High Pallets and159 kg/m3 Density Cargo

Carries Industry-standard3-m High Pallets and159 kg/m3 Density Cargo

Medium-largesize offers low risk

Quiet for nighttime departures

103 Tonnes Max Structural Payload103 Tonnes Max Structural Payload

LargeCargoDoor

LargeCargoDoor

Long-rangeCapability

Long-rangeCapability

The 777 Freighter - Widebody Freighter With Twinjet Economics

Page 25: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

777 Freighter Customers and Firm Orders777 Freighter Customers and Firm Orders

5 8 8

15 14 56

• As of October 31, 2007.

82 firm orders from 12 customers worldwide

262 5

Unidentified Customers

6

Page 26: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

The 777 Freighter delivers The 777 Freighter delivers

• 103-tonne (226,700-lb) revenue payload capability

• The longest range twin-engine freighter

• Lowest trip cost of any large freighter

• 19% to 40% fuel per tonne advantage over today’s freighters

• High commonality with 777 passenger airplanes

• Mixed-fleet flying potential with 747 and 787

• Same airport infrastructure as 747F

• Capable of hauling “real world” densities

• Meets Stage 4/QC2 noise regulations797-WD-0261 8-24-5-CF/JW

Page 27: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

BOEING PROPRIETARY

• Proven Market Leadership

• New revenue opportunities

• Lowest tonne-mile costs of any freighter

• Key commonality with existing fleets

• Environmental benchmark for large freighters

BOEING PROPRIETARY

747-400

747-8

747-8F: The right choice for the large freighter market

747-8F: The right choice for the large freighter market

Page 28: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

9 out of the Top 10 World Air Cargo Carriers Use 747 Freighter Aircraft

These top carriers represent more than one-third of world air cargo traffic

Source: International Air Transport Association, company reports, Air Cargo World research

Building on the Proven Performance of the 747 Freighter

Building on the Proven Performance of the 747 Freighter

Page 29: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Boeing Widebody Freighter Performancemax design range at structural limit

Boeing Widebody Freighter Performancemax design range at structural limit

Page 30: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

Boeing Converted Freighter:much more than a conversion

Boeing Converted Freighter:much more than a conversion

•Boeing freighter airplaneCreated from production-passenger and production-freighter airplanes—by the same OEM teamBased on experience of hundreds of conversionsConforms to Boeing standards—engineering, product integrity and safety, certification, program management, and support

•High-quality, low-risk, on-schedule executionBoeing management and commitmentWorld-class supplier-partnersProven track record

•Operational flexibilityFully integrated data and manualsPayload-range advantages

•Seamless global in-service support Support network for the whole airplaneSpare parts commonality with production freighter

Page 31: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

747-400BCF customer status747-400BCF customer status

6 2 firm

3 5 firm

4 4 firm

4 3 firm*

4 3 firm

3**

1 3 firm

2 firm**

25 23

In Service On Order

* 2 combis** combisData as of December 31, 2007

Page 32: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008

• World air cargo growth was accelerating in 2007 and grew nearly 5%

• The world freighter fleet will nearly double to 3980 aircraft by 2026,

primarily led by widebodies

• Markets connected to Southwest Asia will expand from 6% to 6.5% per

year while domestic India will expand 9.1% per year over the next 20 years

• India is projected to have leading GDP going forward enabling great

opportunities for cargo market growth

• Over 90% of worldwide freighter airplane capacity is flown by Boeing

aircraft

• Boeing offers the most comprehensive freighter solutions to meet varying

market demands

SummarySummary

Page 33: Boeing’s Outlook on Emerging Air Cargo Market January 24, 2008