Dr. Dinesh Keskar Senior Vice President – Sales,Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Boeing’s Outlook on EmergingAir Cargo MarketJanuary 24, 2008
AgendaAgenda
• World Air Cargo Forecast
• India Cargo Market
• Boeing Freighter Products
• Summary
World Air Cargo Grew 5.1% in October 2007 Relative to Traffic Levels of October 2006
World Air Cargo Grew 5.1% in October 2007 Relative to Traffic Levels of October 2006
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA and the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast.
Mo
nth
ly P
erce
nta
ge
Ch
ang
e O
ver
Pri
or
Yea
r
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000
Jan
uary
2001
Jan
uary
2002
Jan
uary
2003
Jan
uary
2004
Jan
uary
2005
Jan
uary
2006
Jan
uary
2007
Jan
uary
Mo. % Change - History
12-Mo. Avg. History
World Air Cargo Traffic Is Expected To Triple Over the Next 20 Years
World Air Cargo Traffic Is Expected To Triple Over the Next 20 Years
0
200
400
600
800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
History Forecast
Average annual growth, 2005 to 2025
High 6.9%Base 6.1%Low 5.3%
5.1% growth per year
RTKs, billions
HighBaseLow
YEAR
As intra-Asia, Transpacific and Europe-Asia routes will lead growth, the market will increasingly demand long range, low tonne-kilometer cost service.
World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple, and Asia Will Lead Industry Growth
World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple, and Asia Will Lead Industry Growth
Asia- North America: 7.1% Average Annual Growth through 2025
Intra-Asia: 8.6% Average Annual
Growth through 2025
Europe-Asia: 6.9% Average
Annual Growth through 2025
36%
31%
33%
In-Service Freighter Fleet will Double–With a Shift Toward Widebody Freighters
In-Service Freighter Fleet will Double–With a Shift Toward Widebody Freighters
2026
3,980freighters
42%
34%
24%
2006
1,980 freighters
Large (>80 tonnes)
Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)
3,980
Passenger32,440
Y2026
Freighters
Freighters Will Remain ~11% of the World’s Jet In-Service Fleet in the Future
Freighters Will Remain ~11% of the World’s Jet In-Service Fleet in the Future
36,420 Airplanes
1,980
Passenger16,250
Y2006
Freighters
18,230 Airplanes
Single-Aisle62%
Twin-aisle20%
Regional Jets13%
00.0160860.0321720.0482580.0643440.080430.0965160.1126020.1286880.1447740.160860.1769460.1930320.2091180.2252040.241290.2573760.2734620.2895480.3056340.321720.3378060.3538920.3699780.3860640.402150.4182360.4343220.4504080.4664940.482580.4986660.5147520.5308380.5469240.563010.5790960.5951820.6112680.6273540.643440.6595260.6756120.6916980.7077840.723870.7399560.7560420.7721280.7882140.80430.8203860.8364720.8525580.8686440.884730.9008160.9169020.9329880.9490740.965160.9812460.9973321.013418
Future Deliveries of New Aircraft2007 - 2026
Future Deliveries of New Aircraft2007 - 2026
MediumWidebody
26%
Total: 870
Freighters3%
Large2%
LargeFreighters
72%
Total: 28,600
Standard-body 2%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2006 2026
Freighter Fleet Growth Forecast Thru 2026 Nearly Three-Quarters Will Be Converted Units
Freighter Fleet Growth Forecast Thru 2026 Nearly Three-Quarters Will Be Converted Units
Freighter aircraft, units
Fleet additions,3,350 units
Current/retained fleet
Conversion market
New freighters
~630 units
Future Freighter Deliveries New and Converted 2007-2026
Future Freighter Deliveries New and Converted 2007-2026
1,270converted
630new
460converted
750converted
220new
Large1,090 total
Medium Widebody970 total
Standard-body1,290 total
Total 3,350 Units(2,480 Converted, 870 New)
Standard-body (<45 tonnes)Medium widebody (40-80 tonnes)Large (>80 tonnes)
20 new
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
North America Asia-Pacific Europe and CIS Africa andMiddle East
Latin America
Large
Medium widebody
Standard-body
Asia Will Receive the Most Large FreightersNumber of New and Converted Airplanes, 2007-2026
Asia Will Receive the Most Large FreightersNumber of New and Converted Airplanes, 2007-2026
India’s Cargo Market
India GDP growth has averaged well over 6% over the last 10 years
India GDP growth has averaged well over 6% over the last 10 years
India GDP Growth
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
ActualForecast
Source: The Economist
Increased Twin Aisle Deliveries to India Will Boost Belly Cargo
Y2007 - Y2026
Increased Twin Aisle Deliveries to India Will Boost Belly Cargo
Y2007 - Y2026
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2007
*In year 2006 dollars Catalogue Prices
Type 2006(Units)
2007(Units)
2007 Dollars*(Billions)
Regional Jets 51 55 $1.72Single Aisle 676 674 $45.58Twin Aisle 120 173 $35.26
747 and Larger 9 9 $3.44TOTAL 856 911 $86.0
Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 9.9% per Year Over the Last 5 Years Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic Has Grown 9.9% per Year Over the Last 5 Years
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006
EuropeFar East AsiaMiddle EastSouthwest AsiaAfricaNorth AmericaCIS
Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India
Europe, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise India’s Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic FlowsEurope, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise India’s Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic Flows
Europe to India: 122.8 / 7.3%
Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India, Financial Year 2005-2006 data. Non-Scheduled (charter) and sea-air traffic NOT included.
India to Europe :
187.3 / 7.3%
Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands & historic five-year growth rate, percentage
Middle East to India: 57.1 / 17.9%
India to the Middle East: 151.1 / 6.0%
India to Far East Asia: 87.9 / 8.7%
Far East Asia to India: 121.3 /
18.7%
Leading Indian Air Cargo AirportsLeading Indian Air Cargo Airports
The size of the Indian international and domestic air freight market in 2006 was estimated to be ~1,500,000 tonnes, up about 10% from 2005. Leading air freight airports in terms of tonnage were:
Mumbai: 478,600
Delhi: 398,437
Chennai: 233,769
Bangalore: 165,406
Kolkata: 83,528
Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Expand at 9.1% per Year, Although from a Small Base
Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Expand at 9.1% per Year, Although from a Small Base
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
History Forecast
Average annual growth,
2005 to 2025
High 10.0%Base 9.1%Low 8.1%
Tonnes, thousands
12.5% growth per year
HighBaseLow
TOTAL DOMESTIC CARGO CARRIED BY ALL SCHEDULED AND NON-SCHEDULED OPERATORS IN INDIA
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
*19
96
-97
19
97
-98
19
98
-99
19
99
-00
20
00
-01
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
YEAR
CA
RG
O C
AR
RIE
D (
TO
NN
ES
)
SCHDEDULED NATIONAL CARRIES
SCHDEDULED PRIVATE CARRIERS
SCHEDULED CARGO OPERATOR*
Private carriers are leading the way in cargo carried
Private carriers are leading the way in cargo carried
Source: India DGCA
Current India Freighter FleetCurrent India Freighter Fleet
Source: AirClaims reported as of Nov 14, 2007.
In-Service Freighter Fleet Consists of 12 Aircraft
Mfr & Type Air India Blue Dart Crescent Air Grand TotalAirbus A310-300F 2 2Boeing 737-200F Adv 3 4 7Boeing 757-200SF 2 2Fokker 50 (Bulk Freighter) 1 1Grand Total 5 6 1 12
Boeing Offers Freighter Solutions For Every Market
Boeing Offers Freighter Solutions For Every Market
Record Freighter OrdersRecord Freighter Orders
Boeing freighters sets third consecutive record sales year
2005 2006 200774
Note: Orders reflected are net orders for the year.
81 83
0
45(100)
136(300)
91(200)
• Revenue payload does not include tare weight.* Boeing assessment.
Boeing Airbus
747-8 F
747-400BCF747-400F/-ERF
767-300F767-300BCF A300-600F
A380F*
767-200SF
757-200SF
737-700C
777 Freighter
Revenue payload 1,000-kg (1,000-lb)
A300-600P2F
A310P2F
MD-11BCF
Boeing offers a complete line of freighters to meet the market needs
Boeing offers a complete line of freighters to meet the market needs
A330-200F
Carries Industry-standard3-m High Pallets and159 kg/m3 Density Cargo
Carries Industry-standard3-m High Pallets and159 kg/m3 Density Cargo
Medium-largesize offers low risk
Quiet for nighttime departures
103 Tonnes Max Structural Payload103 Tonnes Max Structural Payload
LargeCargoDoor
LargeCargoDoor
Long-rangeCapability
Long-rangeCapability
The 777 Freighter - Widebody Freighter With Twinjet Economics
777 Freighter Customers and Firm Orders777 Freighter Customers and Firm Orders
5 8 8
15 14 56
• As of October 31, 2007.
82 firm orders from 12 customers worldwide
262 5
Unidentified Customers
6
The 777 Freighter delivers The 777 Freighter delivers
• 103-tonne (226,700-lb) revenue payload capability
• The longest range twin-engine freighter
• Lowest trip cost of any large freighter
• 19% to 40% fuel per tonne advantage over today’s freighters
• High commonality with 777 passenger airplanes
• Mixed-fleet flying potential with 747 and 787
• Same airport infrastructure as 747F
• Capable of hauling “real world” densities
• Meets Stage 4/QC2 noise regulations797-WD-0261 8-24-5-CF/JW
BOEING PROPRIETARY
• Proven Market Leadership
• New revenue opportunities
• Lowest tonne-mile costs of any freighter
• Key commonality with existing fleets
• Environmental benchmark for large freighters
BOEING PROPRIETARY
747-400
747-8
747-8F: The right choice for the large freighter market
747-8F: The right choice for the large freighter market
9 out of the Top 10 World Air Cargo Carriers Use 747 Freighter Aircraft
These top carriers represent more than one-third of world air cargo traffic
Source: International Air Transport Association, company reports, Air Cargo World research
Building on the Proven Performance of the 747 Freighter
Building on the Proven Performance of the 747 Freighter
Boeing Widebody Freighter Performancemax design range at structural limit
Boeing Widebody Freighter Performancemax design range at structural limit
Boeing Converted Freighter:much more than a conversion
Boeing Converted Freighter:much more than a conversion
•Boeing freighter airplaneCreated from production-passenger and production-freighter airplanes—by the same OEM teamBased on experience of hundreds of conversionsConforms to Boeing standards—engineering, product integrity and safety, certification, program management, and support
•High-quality, low-risk, on-schedule executionBoeing management and commitmentWorld-class supplier-partnersProven track record
•Operational flexibilityFully integrated data and manualsPayload-range advantages
•Seamless global in-service support Support network for the whole airplaneSpare parts commonality with production freighter
747-400BCF customer status747-400BCF customer status
6 2 firm
3 5 firm
4 4 firm
4 3 firm*
4 3 firm
3**
1 3 firm
2 firm**
25 23
In Service On Order
* 2 combis** combisData as of December 31, 2007
• World air cargo growth was accelerating in 2007 and grew nearly 5%
• The world freighter fleet will nearly double to 3980 aircraft by 2026,
primarily led by widebodies
• Markets connected to Southwest Asia will expand from 6% to 6.5% per
year while domestic India will expand 9.1% per year over the next 20 years
• India is projected to have leading GDP going forward enabling great
opportunities for cargo market growth
• Over 90% of worldwide freighter airplane capacity is flown by Boeing
aircraft
• Boeing offers the most comprehensive freighter solutions to meet varying
market demands
SummarySummary