B O O K R E V I E W

Paul R. Ehrlich, Anne H. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren, Eeoseienee-Population, Resources, Environment W. H. Freeman and Company, San Francisc% 1977, xv, 1051 pp.

The Ehrlichs have done it again, this time in collaboration with John Holdren. The first version of this book appeared seven years ago, entitled 'Population, Resources, Environment' and was an exceedingly important book. The present volume is, however a vastly different work; it has been greatly extended to the point of becoming the most comprehensive authority on its subjects. It indicates most clearly, without labouring the argument, the essential interactions of the various elements of the human predicament- population; food; energy and materials; climate and environment; economics and politics and is very well balanced, although one would have liked to see a fuller discussion of some of the social and cultural factors. The symptoms of the global malaise described are consequences of the present life styles of the affluent world, which have spread insidiously amongst 61ites everywhere and whose amelioration would necessitate a profound cultural change.

The authors never disguise where they stand on matters which are still controversial, but the book has a considerable objectivity in its selection and presentation of data. The slight flavour of dogmatism and even fanatacism which some appeared to find in the earlier Ehrlich writings have substantially vanished, being rendered superfluous by the intrinsic arguments of the massively mustered array of the facts themselves.

Although the book is a thorough and exceedingly well documented description in all the fields it covers, these are seen within a framework Of the dialogue between the optimists and the pessimists or cornucopians and Neo-Malthusians as the authors term them, placing themselves firmly within the latter camp. The book begins indeed with a description of this divergence, the conucopians - those who believe in inevitable efficacy of the technological f'tx and the price mechanism on the one hand; who believe that we are on the brink of a golden science-built age with cheap energy and abundant materials in which there will be universal prosperity; and on the other the neo-Malthusians who warn that overpopulation and excessive technological development will place intolerable pressure on both environment and society. It ends with a thorough trouncing of the cornucopian vision. Where the aumors themselves are over-optimistic is when they say in the introduction, "that civilization has entered a period of grave crisis is now doubted .only by those afflicted with incurable Micawberism". Continuing high rates of economic growth are still the explicit objective of practically all countries; pro-natalist sentiment is rife in the United Nations; the great mass of people in the third world, living miserably, are unaware that things are even worse than usual - and there is always Herman Kahn.

The opening section of the book is a brief, but very clear overview of what the authors consider to be the nature of the impending crisis of humanity. Then follows a detailed description of about 160 pages of the main physical and biological systems of the world, including the hydrological and nutrient cycles, concluding with an excellent chapter on populations and ecology. This section would, by itself constitute a first rate basic text for high schools and universities.

In Section II of the book, on population and renewable resources, the authors begin seriously to voice their concern with present trends. There is a rather detailed introduction the demography, not only population dynamics, but also demographic structures, migration and urbanism, then come the problems related to resources usually taken for granted such as water, soil and forests. Then follows a long section on the production of food for the increased population, within which there is discussion of the Green Revolution type of agricultural development with its need for fertilizers, pesticides, farm machinery and ample water suppl ies . . , but with rather too little consideration of the social, cultural and migratory consequences. On the whole the authors are mildly optimistic with regard to food prospects. On a technical level they are certainly justified; new possibilities opened up by research in plant genetics, nitrogen fixation, the many new options arising from molecular biology, fish cultivation in ponds and coastal waters etc. are considerable. Yet even at today's population levels, millions are undernourished and starvation is rife in many areas. The hungry of the world are poor and have no means of purchasing food which is in surplus often in distant places; furthermore they are generally conservative both in their food habits and their farming practices. The real problems of feeding the

Climatic Change 1 (1978)293-295.AllRights Reserved. Copyright �9 1978 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland.

2 9 4 Book Review

teeming millions of tomorrow's world are those o f poverty; they are economic, social, logistic and political and hence beyond the scope o f this book.

We come next to quest ions of energy and materials. There is an excellent and accurate description of the large variety o f energy options, including an easily understandable account of nuclear fission and fusion which indicates the different paths within the nuclear opt ion as well as an assessment o f the dangers and difficulties f rom nuclear accidents, radioactive waste disposal and diversion of p lu ton ium for bomb construct ion, sabotage and terrorism. All this is laid out qui te objectively with little in the way of black and white subjective judgements as to whether mankind has the wisdom to live in a world fed by a nuclear economy; that is reserved for the latter part of the book, so that these chapters should be valid, even in the eyes of the nuclear enthusiasts.

Too little a t tent ion is given, however, to the long lead-time of research and development . It takes upwards of thir ty years before a new scientific concept can be tested at the basic research level, goes through the development phase and then contr ibutes significantly to production. Much public and political discussion of future energy supply accepts too easily the availability o f non-tradit ional forms such as solar and geothermal. The tempo of science is wildly different f rom that of politics, which is insufficiently appreciated bo th by scientists and by politicians. It is highly doubt fu l whether many of the new possibilities, which are very real, will contr ibute significantly to demand in t ime to meet the shortfall at the end o f the century, when pet ro leum supplies will have peaked. Great problems are therefore likely to arise during the transit ion period for fifty years after 1985 before a new type of energy pat tern and a new life style will have become established, and it is here that the easiest solution may well be seen in the extension of nuclear energy generation.

The nex t section of the book is a catalogue of the dismal phenomena which are of potential danger if no t disaster to humankind , to the envi ronment or the climate. Here one is struck by the extent of uncertainty. Too ma ny of these mat ters which are o f concern to each h u m a n being and to each country are neglected because they are the responsibili ty of no single individual or no particular country . The global problems are now so pressing and so all-pervading that there is need for new international mechanisms for at tacking them. Fur thermore many of them such as policies with regard to the rate of burning o f fossil fuels in relation to the CO 2/greenhouse effect, or the ul t imate limits of allowable thermal pollut ion; which could lead to irreversible effects, may have to be taken into account and decisions made, before the facts are fully known. We badly need the evolution of a new art - the managemen t of complexi ty and uncertainty.

The final section o f the book is on 'The Human Predicament - Finding a Way Out ' , and includes discussions on populat ion policy, new insti tutional needs and the problems of the disparity between the rich and the poor nations, together with a somewhat restricted account o f international conflict. It is here that the au thors finally come clean as to their own beliefs. Here inevitably too, we are on less certain ground. Description of the difficulties is easy, diagnosis more difficult and prescription unsure. It is too much to expect that our authors should have clear solutions to the major problems facing society, bu t I doubt if anyone could have done better. In an epilogue we are told that the authors "are informed in all solemnity that the drastic changes they propose are economically, politically and socially impracticable and unrealistic. This may well be true within the existing f ramework o f society and the awareness o f individuals o f the gravity of the dangers ahead, but to continue with present policies, t rends and at t i tudes is no t merely impractical bu t disasterous. The priority task is perhaps that of deepening the awareness o f individuals everywhere as to the nature and ex ten t of the dangers ahead, not in the sense of an abject pessimism bu t as a challenge to find the way out" . The book contr ibutes greatly to this, bu t there is a need also for a simpler and more popular version which would have general impact.

On the s t imulus of reading this book, I took down f rom my shelves and reread two books published in 1948, Fairfield Osborn 's 'Our Plundered Planet ' and William Vogt 's 'Road to Survival', bo th concerned with the same problems as 'Ecoscience' . It is amazing how relevant these analyses made thir ty years ago were and to realize how the problems have evolved in the meant ime. Yet, a l though they caused a mild sensation at the time, little heed was paid to them. The hypnot ic appeal o f technological development and material gain has been too great during these three decades of rapid economic growth, distracting a t tent ion to the identified dangers unti l they have reached their present dimensions. Technology now appear at once a cornucopia and a Pandora 's Box. Appreciat ion o f this and its appropriate use is the fundamenta l challenge to h u m a n wisdom.

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Ecoscience is a magnificent boak, a really comprehensive reference source across the whole of the untidy tangle of problems which constitute the 'world problematique', which should be immensely useful, not only to the converted, but also to all thinking people who are concerned that there should be a tolerable world for their children and grandchildren.

Paris A L E X A N D E R KING