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Mark Finley General Manager, Global Energy Markets
BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2013
Energy in 2012 –Adapting to a changing world
Outline
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
• Introduction
• 2012 in long-term context
• Fuel by fuel
• Concluding remarks
10 year average
-3% 0% 3% 6%
North America
Europe & Eurasia
S&C America
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Africa
Energy in 2012
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
GDP Energy Intensity
Energy and GDPAnnual change, %
10 year average
Energy growth by regionAnnual change, %
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GDP Energy GDP Energy
Long-term energy trends
BtoePrimary energy demand
OECDNon-OECD
Annual change, %
3
4
5
6
7
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
OECD
Non-OECD
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Energy and GDP in 2012
10 year average
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
Reserves and productionOil reserves
Trillion bbls
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1982 1992 2002 2012 1982 1992 2002 20120
50
100
150
200
250OtherNorth AmericaFSUOPEC
Tcm
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-100 -50 0 50 100 150
S&C America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
North America
Asia Pacific
Renewables* Nuclear HydroCoal Gas Oil
Energy production growth in 2012Mtoe
Gas reserves
*Includes biofuels
Energy prices
0
30
60
90
120
150
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Oil (Brent)Gas basketCoal basket
$2012/boe, monthlyInflation adjusted prices 2012 price changes
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Oil (Brent) Gas Coal basket
Annual change, %
Asia
US
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Source: includes data from ICIS Heren Energy and Energy Intelligence Group, McCloskey and Platts
The evolving fuel mixShares of global primary energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1972 1982 1992 2002 2012-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Non-OECD OECD
Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Oil
Annual change, Mtoe2012 energy consumption changes
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dated BrentAnnual averages
The oil market in 2012
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Source: includes data from Platts
$/bbl
The price of oilAnnual change, Mb/d
0
1
2
2011 2012
ProductionConsumption
Production and consumption growth
Oil production in 2012
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
Largest changes Mb/d
IranSudan
SyriaUK
NorwayKuwait
IraqSaudi Arabia
LibyaUS
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Supply disruptionsAnnual loss, Mb/d
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2011 2012
Yemen
Syria
Libya
Iran
Sudan
Non-OPEC
OPEC
US oil supply: cause and effect
Change since 2007, Mb/d
Net US oil imports
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Refined Products Crude Oil
RoW
AfricaS & C
America
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Europe & Eurasia
0
200
400
600
800
0
75
150
225
300
Jan-08 May-09 Sep-10 Jan-12
Wells startedRig countProduction (RHS)
Source: includes data from North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources and Energy Information Administration
North Dakota productionCount Kb/d
Emerging oil trade patterns
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-200 -100 0 100 200
China
India
Japan
Germany
Italy
Spain
Iran Saudi Arabia Libya
Adjustment to 2012 disruptionsChange in trade, Kb/d
Net oil imports
0
5
10
15
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
US EU China
Mb/d
-400 -200 0 200 400 600
USItaly
SpainUK
FranceIran
S. ArabiaIndia
JapanChina
Non-OECD
OECD
Oil consumption in 2012
Kb/d Kb/d
Growth by product type
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Middledistillate
Gasoline
10 yearaverage
Non-OECD OECD
Largest changes
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Oil consumption and mobility
Mb/d
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
OECD Non-OECD
New registrations (millions)
Oil consumption trends Vehicle sales
0
10
20
30
40
50
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
OECDNon-OECDof which China
Source: includes data from R. L. Polk & Co. BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
89
1072
36
7China SPR
China other
OECD
Saudi Arabiacrude
Other non-OECD
Oil inventories
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Source: Includes data from the International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2013
Inventory increases in 2012Mbbls
OECD commercial inventoriesMbbls
2500
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2007-11 range 2012 2013
0
5
10
15
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
USGCNWESingapore
Refining margins and capacity
$/bbl
Source: Includes data from Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
Upgrading marginsMb/d
Unused refining capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
OECD
Non-OECD
Crude run rebalancing and product stocks
Mb/d
Oil consumption and crude runs
10
13
16
19
22Consumption 2005
Consumption 2012
Refinery throughput
US Europe
OECD product stocksMbbls
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2007-11 range 2012 2013
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Source: Includes data from the International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2013
Global natural gas balanceGlobal growth in 2012
Annual change, Bcm
-20 0 20 40
EU
FSU
Other
Middle East
Asia Pacific
N. America
Consumption
Production
$/mmBtu
International gas prices
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Average Japanese import priceUK NBPUS Henry Hub
Source: includes data from ICIS Heren Energy and Energy Intelligence Group BP Statistical Review of World Energy
© BP 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
US natural gas production
Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes
Production growthAnnual change, Bcm Count
Rig count
Oil
Gas
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
2011 2012
Other
Shale gas
Associated
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US coal to gas switching
Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Platts
Annual change, %
Power generation
0
3
6
9
-15%
0%
15%
30%
2002-2007
2007-2012
2011 2012
$/mmBtu
Gas
Coal
Natural gas consumption growth
Power
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Annual change, Bcm
Average gas price (RHS)
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
10 year average 2012
Power
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
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-5 0 5 10
Qatar
Australia
Nigeria
Yemen
Egypt
Malaysia
Indonesia 10 year average
2012
Natural gas tradeLNG exportsLNG and pipeline trade
Annual change, Bcm
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
-10
0
10
20
30
40
10 yearaverage
2011 2012
Annual change, Bcm
Trade share of consumption (RHS)
LNG
Pip
elin
e
European gas-coal competition
0
20
40
60
Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12
Gas
Coal
€/MWh
EU power generation costAnnual change, Mtoe
2012 changes in EU imports
-40
-20
0
20
Coal Natural Gas
Source: includes data from Platts, IHS McCloskey and IntercontinentalExchange
PipelineUS
RussiaOther
LNG
N. Africa
RussiaNorway
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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The coal market in 2012
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Share of world(RHS)Growth
Coal consumption in China
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Annual change, %-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
US
Australia
Russia
Indonesia
Japan
EU
India ConsumptionProduction
Annual change, Mtoe
Largest changes outside China in 2012
-58-40
bbbbbbbbbbb
bbbbb
Hydro, other renewables and nuclear
Thousand TWh
0
1
2
3
4
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Power generation
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Output changes in 2012
-200
-100
0
100
200
Nuclear Hydro Renewables
Japan
US
Annual change, TWh
EUChina
Other
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
WindSolarOther
Annual change, %
Contributions to growth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
WorldOECDNon-OECD
Renewables share of power
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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Renewables in power generation
Carbon emissions
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
China India Japan EU US
MtCO2
Largest emission changes in 2012
0
10
20
30
40
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
BtCO2
Global emissions from energy use
OECD
Non-OECD
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
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-300 -200 -100 0 100
Coal
Gas
Oil
Total
-300 -200 -100 0 100
Coal
Gas
Oil
Total
2012 change, MtCO2
US EU
* The net effect of changes in non-fossil fuels in power on emissions, based on 2011 shares of fossil fuels in power generation
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Effect of*:
Renewables
Hydro & Nuclear
Renewables
Hydro & Nuclear
Carbon emissions by fuel: US and EU
Conclusion
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Energy in 2012
• Fundamental adjustment– And short-term aberrations
• Market and price driven– Sometimes with surprises
• Policy matters
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BP Statistical Review of World EnergyJune 2013
Energy in 2012 –Adapting to a changing world
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