bp sustainability report 2007 christof ruhl slides

8/3/2019 Bp Sustainability Report 2007 Christof Ruhl Slides

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 BP 2007

Outline

Introduction

What has changed? The medium term

What is new? 2006 in review

Conclusion


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Energy Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Oil (dated Brent)

Gas basket

Coal basket

Weightedaverage

Index 1991=100


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0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

WorldPrimaryEnergy

OECD Non-OECD Oil Gas Coal

World Energy Consumption Growth

Average annual growthExcl. China

1996-2001

2001-2006


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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

World OECD FSU China Other EMEsexcl. China

2001-20061996-

2001

Average annual growth (PPP)

World Economic Growth


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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

WorldPrimaryEnergy

Worldexcl.

China

OECD Non-OECD

Oil Gas Coal

Elasticity

Income Elasticities of Energy Demand

2001-2006

1996-2001


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World Fuel Shares

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Oil

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Share of global primary energy consumption


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Carbon Emissions

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006

China

World

OECD

Tonnes of carbon per tonne of primary energy use

Carbon IntensityWorld Carbon Emissions

Index: 1990 = 100

World

Annex 1

Annex 1Ratified


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China9%

FSU

17% OtherOECD11%

Europe22%

US23%

Other EMEs18%

OtherOECD12%

FSU10%

Europe18%

US21%

OtherEMEs23%

China16%

8.2 Billion toe 10.9 Billion toe

1991 2006

Shares of World Energy Consumption


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-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

N America Europe S & CAmerica

FSU Africa Middle East Asia Pacific

Billion cubic metres

5 year cumulative changes in natural gas production by region

Regional Growth of Gas Production

1991-

1996

2001-

2006

1996-2001


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Energy Trade

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Africa

Mid-East

FSU

S&C America

Europe

Asia Pacific

N. America

Billion tonnes oil equivalent

Net inter-regional exports

Net inter-regional imports


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0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

World Economic Growth

Source: IMF WEO

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

N .

A m e r i c a

S & C A m e r i c a

E U - 2

5

F S U

M

i d d l e E a s t

A f r i c a

A

s i a

P a c i

f i c

Regional GDP growth in 2006 (PPP)Global GDP growth (PPP)

10-yearaverage

10-year average


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GDP and Primary Energy Growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Primary energy consumption GDP (PPP)Growth


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-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

China Other non-OECD OECD

World Energy Consumption Growth

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Oil Coal Gas Others

Million tonnes oil equivalent


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0

1

2

3

4

5

Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Oil

% Growth in 2006

Primary Energy Growth by Fuel

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Oil Natural Gas Coal

Fuel Price Growth

20052006


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GDP, Energy and Carbon Emissions

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

OECD

Non-OECD

World

GDP

Primary energy

Growth of GDP and energy in 2006

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Primary energyCarbon emissions

Growth of energy and carbon emissions in 2006


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Oil Prices

35

40

45

50

5560

65

70

75

80

Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07

Dated BrentUS dollars per barrel


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2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

Jan Feb Mar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2001-2005 range 2006 / 2007Billionbarrels

3

2

1

2007

Spare OPEC capacity(million barrels daily, rhs)

OECD stocks (lhs):

2006

OECD Total Commercial Stocks

Source: IEA, EIA

0


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Oil Consumption

000 b/d

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

China Europe OtherAsia

Pacific

NorthAmerica

MiddleEast

FSU S&CAmerica

Africa

10-year average

Oil importing regions Oil exporting regions

Growth in 2006 by region


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-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250

Decrease Increase

Oil Production

Non-OPEC

FSU

OPEC

Canada

Iraq

Angola

AzerbaijanRussia

UAE

Norway

UK

Nigeria

Venezuela

000 b/d

Saudi Arabia

Changes in 2006 in excess of 100,000 b/d


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Changes in 2006

Refining Throughput

-400 -200 0 200 400 600

World

Asia Pacific

Africa

Middle East

FSU

Europe

S&C America

N America

000 b/d


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Natural Gas Prices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07

NBP Henry Hub USGC residual fuel oil

US dollars per million Btu


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US Inter-fuel Substitution

-400

-200

0

200

400

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07

-4

-2

0

2

4

Change in resid used in powergen (lhs)

Gas premium/discount (rhs)

000 b/d US dollars per million Btu

Source: DOE/EIA


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LNG Trade


Source: Cedigaz

Exporters


-2 0 2 4 6 8

Egypt

Nigeria

Qatar

OmanAustralia

Indonesia

Algeria

Importers

-2 0 2 4 6 8

JapanSouth Korea

UK

US

Spain

BelgiumIndia

France

China

Trade changes in 2006 in excess of 1 billion cubic metres

Trinidad


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Coal Consumption

16

4

4

-2

-3

-7

India

Indonesia

UK

Japan

Spain

USA

RoW28%

Million tonnes oil equivalent Million tonnes oil equivalent

China72%

Global consumption growth 2006 Consumption growth outside China 2006


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07

2005 Contract price

Spot price2008 Contract price

EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Euros per tonne of CO 2 equivalent

Source: Point Carbon


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Non-Fossil Fuels

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40Hydro

Nuclear


2002 2004 2005 20062003

0

5

10

15

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

US Brazil Other


Ethanol productionChange in Nuclear and Hydro generation

W ld Oil R


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World Oil Reserves

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Middle East S&C AmericaEurope & Eurasia AfricaNorth America Asia PacificOther Canadian oil sands

Billion barrels

GDP P i E d C b E i i


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GDP, Primary Energy and Carbon Emissions

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Primary energy consumption

Carbon emissionsGDP

Index: 1990 = 100

C l i


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Conclusions

Medium term

Fast economic growth driving energy consumption growth Coal fastest growing fuel Non-OECD growth trends generate more energy intensive and

carbon intensive growth

Rising energy prices

2006 in review

Slower (but above average) consumption growth Consumption responsive to price, especially in OECD Rapid coal growth; carbon intensity increased OPEC re-engages


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Energy in Perspective

BP Statistical Review of World Energy2007

Q & A

Peter DaviesChristof Rhl

bp sustainability report 2007 christof ruhl slides

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