brampton growth management discussion paper

Brampton Growth Management &

Accelerated Official Plan Review Program

Discussion Paper

Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts

January 2005

City of Brampton Discussion Paper - Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts 2005

TABLE OF CONTENTS

OVERVIEW PART A: DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK CONTEXT 2004 1. Introduction 2. Brampton’s Growth Management

Program 3. Brampton Land Supply

3.1. Residential 3.2. Employment

4. Provincial Policy

4.1. Current Policy 4.2. Recent Policy Initiatives

5. Greater Toronto Area Context 6. Region of Peel Context 7. Discussion of financial and other

challenges in responding to high growth rates

PART B: DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK SCENARIOS 2004 1. City of Brampton Growth Forecast

Scenarios (Population and Employment – High, Medium and Low) 1.1. Residential 1.2. Employment

2. Strategic Options for Addressing High

Growth 3. Forecast Distribution

3.1. Intensification 3.2. Forecast Distribution: Alternative

Scenarios 4. Recommended Next Steps

4.1. Policy Initiatives 4.2. Reference Forecasts for Current

Planning Initiatives

APPENDICES: 1. Brampton Population & Housing Forecasts, Hemson Consulting, October 2004 (Low, Medium,

& High Scenarios) 2. Brampton Employment Forecasts, Hemson Consulting, October 2004 (Low, Medium, & High

Scenarios)

City of Brampton Discussion Paper - Population, Housing and Employment Forecasts

__________________________________________________________________________________________ Part A – Development Outlook Context 1 January 2005

OVERVIEW This discussion paper outlines a range of population, housing and employment forecasts developed with the assistance of Hemson Consulting Limited and discusses the planning context from which these forecast were derived. This paper also highlights a number of strategic issues and presents plausible options for dealing with the City’s unprecedented growth levels. The following points summarize the key conclusions:

• The new high growth forecasts best represent current trends in terms of Brampton’s share of the GTA growth, particular for the 2011 horizon.

• The emerging 2011 picture is 5% to 9% higher than previously forecasts (up to 46,000 people/

13,700 units higher).

• The City’s recent Development Charges By-law update represents a move forward, however the City and Region 10 year infrastructure forecasts would be advanced by about 3 years to respond to the high growth forecasts.

• Slowing the emerging 2011 growth picture will be difficult due to market trends and existing

commitments and approvals.

• Any further commitments to advance residentially designated land should be carefully evaluated (i.e. new secondary plan areas, employment land conversions).

• Current staffing plans for development processing, capital project delivery and population related

services are based on low growth forecasts. PART A: DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK CONTEXT 2004 1. INTRODUCTION This discussion paper provides the context for discussion regarding updates to the City of Brampton’s population, housing and employment forecasts. The forecasts are to be employed in the context of the City’s ongoing Official Plan Review and Growth Management Program (GMP). Consideration is given to recent provincial policy initiatives, the economic climate of the GTA, land supply and the fiscal constraints that municipalities such as Brampton must deal with. With the expertise and assistance of Hemson Consulting Limited, a set of Citywide high, medium and low growth forecasts have been produced that are consistent with the methodology and framework of the recently released “Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Report” (January, 2005). Hemson is also the key consultant that developed that latter forecast on behalf of the Regional Municipalities of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) and the Province. Three growth scenarios are presented representing potential scenarios for the City’s growth over the next 25-30 years. The Medium and High growth scenarios have been distributed to Secondary Planning Areas in order to show where active development is forecast to proceed and to evaluate some of the factors influencing the distribution of growth. These distributed forecasts and other information are available in the 2004 Development Outlook Report. Finally this paper will also identify possible avenues for the City to explore in order to address the high rate of growth and the current tools available to the City.



2. BRAMPTON’S GROWTH MANAGEMENT PROGRAM The aim of the City’s Growth Management Program (GMP) approved in 2003 is to promote the timely delivery of services and infrastructure to new residents while maintaining appropriate service levels for existing residents. In order to do this the City requires the active participation of the our ‘partners in managing growth’ such as the Region of Peel, school boards, conservation authorities and the development industry. A key component of the GMP is maintaining up-to-date population, housing and employment forecasts by Secondary Planning Area. The annual Development Outlook Forecast provides a single source of detailed short and long-term population and employment forecasts and the anticipated locations and timing of growth to be used by City Departments, the Region of Peel and other agencies for planning and budgeting services and infrastructure. This Discussion paper is intended to provide new Citywide up-to-date forecasts for the City for use in the approved GMP as well as outline some of the issues around projecting the rate of growth in the City and the distribution of that growth in this time of rapid growth and changing policy framework. Detailed elements of the forecast summarized in this Discussion Paper are included in a new Development Outlook Report prepared concurrently. 3. BRAMPTON LAND SUPPLY The City of Brampton is 26, 900 hectares (66,469 acres) in total area with the majority of it planned for development and located within the City’s existing Urban Boundary. Northwest Brampton, consisting of about 2,428 hectares (6,000 acres), is the only area in Brampton outside the current urban boundary. Under the current urban boundary, the majority of developable land is under active planning for residential and employment purposes. There are only two significant size Secondary Planning Areas that are not under development or have yet to undertake a comprehensive Secondary Planning Process to facilitate development, including the Highway 427 Industrial lands (SPA 47) and Sandringham Wellington North (SPA 48).

3.1. Residential Land Supply As can be seen by the table below, the number of residential building permits issued since 1997 has steadily increased with a record number of permits issues in 2004. Table 1: Brampton Residential Building Permits Issued SFD SDD TH APT TOTAL

1997 1776 689 456 111 3032 1998 1590 564 324 112 2590 1999 1988 781 470 1 3240 2000 2830 1420 892 176 5318 2001 3268 1116 476 98 4958 2002 4985 972 409 96 6462 2003 4733 1466 471 0 6670 2004 7337 1315 824 98 9574

Source: Brampton Planning Design and Development Department, 2005



Feeding the number of building permits issued for new dwelling units is the inventory of registered and draft approved plans. More specifically, once plans are registered, a large portion of the lots have already been sold and building permit applications are submitted soon after registration. As summarized by Table 2 there are approximately 2,511 registered units that have yet to yield building permits. Table 2: Current Residential Development Inventory*

* As of December 31, 2004 ** Includes some Site Plan and rezoning applications notably for downtown Brampton. Source: Brampton Planning Design and Development Department, 2005 The majority of active registered plans are located in the east part of the City in Secondary Planning Areas 28 (Springdale), 42 (Vales of Castlemore), 41 (Bram-East) and 49 (Vales of Castlemore North). On the west side of the City, active registered plans are mostly located within SP 44 (Fletcher’s Meadow). Between Jan-Dec 2004 the City registered 7627 units amongst 34 different registered plans. The City also draft approved 10 plans of subdivision yielding approximately 2916 dwelling units and received another 21 plans of subdivision applications yielding approximately 4000 units. Table 3 below illustrates how the inventory of registered and draft approved units has related to the number of building permits that have been issued over the past 4 years. The inventory has been relatively steady since 2001 even with the increase in the number of building permits, with the exception of 2004. As of the end of 2004, the number of draft-approved units has diminished, leading to a smaller inventory of registered and draft-approved units largely due to the substantial number of building permits issued in 2004 and significant decrease in the number of new draft approved units in 2004. Table 3: Historical Development Inventory Vs. Present

Source: Brampton Planning Design and Development Department, 2005 Although the supply has diminished, this is in part due to the rush to obtain building permits before the end of 2004 to avoid increased Development Charges. The City anticipates a steady flow of new applications to maintain a supply of registered and draft approved units. Table 4 below illustrates the residential land supply in Brampton relative other nearby GTA municipalities in mid-2004 as identified by Malone Given Parsons in a recent study undertaken on behalf of the Urban

Apartment Units Family Units Total Registered Plans (No Permits Issued Yet)

750 1761 2,511

Draft Approved Units 100 5,452 5,552 Received** 2,250 15,550 17,800

Year Bldg Permits/Year

Registered Units

Registered Inventory

Draft Approved

Units

Draft Approved Inventory

Total Draft Approved & Registered Plan

Inventory2001 4958 4754 4289 3848 9388 13,6772002 6462 6483 4310 7405 10310 14,6202003 6670 6818 4458 6771 10263 14,7212004 9574 7627 2511 2916 5552 8,063



Development Institute. Brampton with over 5,600 hectares of designated and developable land has over 37% of the supply within 40 km of Pearson Airport. Table 4: Developable Residential Land Brampton and the GTA

Vacant Designated and Developable Residential Land Within 40 km of Pearson Airport

601750

801540

5640

120 440 570 3102700 1870

15080

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

King

Mar

kham

Ric

hmon

dH

ill

Vaug

han

Bram

pton

Cal

edon

Mis

siss

auga

Burli

ngto

n

Hal

ton

Hills

Milt

on

Oak

ville

Tota

l

York Peel Halton

Hec

tare

s

Source: Malone Given Parsons, July 2004 “Analysis of Land Supply in the GTA – Hamilton Area” Understanding that the GTA-Hamilton Area is expected to see an additional 2.4 million people by the year 2031 (about 1.2 million additional units), even with substantial infill and intensification, the Malone Given Parsons study identifies a current shortfall of over 29,000 hectares of developable residential land in the GTA- Hamilton Area. Given the shortfall in GTA-Hamilton land supply, Brampton with by far the largest share of available land is expected to see a disproportionately high share of growth pressures in the coming years. 3.2. Employment Land Supply The current supply of designated land for employment land development (i.e. industrial parks, major office, manufacturing and warehousing) is summarized in Table 5: Table 5: Brampton Employment Land Supply (Hectares)

Total Designated Employment Land 5510 Total Occupied Employment Land 1915

Vacant Within Built-up Areas 1835 Vacant Greenfield Areas 1760

Total Vacant Employment Land 3595 Source: Brampton Economic Development Office, October 2003



The available supply of developable employment lands should be sufficient to meet demands for employment growth in Brampton consistent with the projections within our current urban boundary maintaining about a 2:1 ratio between population growth and employment growth. However, to meet GTA- Hamilton needs for employment lands to the year 2031, Malone Given Parsons has identified a shortfall of about 2,560 hectares of greenfield employment lands in the GTA-Hamilton area. Brampton’s supply of greenfield employment land relative to adjacent GTA municipalities is outlined in Table 6. Brampton has over 25% of the supply within 40 km of Pearson Airport. Table 6: Developable Employment Land Brampton and the GTA

Vacant Designated and Developable Employment Land Within 40 km of Pearson Airport

110 210

1570 1670

210 540 4801000 750

6540

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Mar

kham

Ric

hmon

dH

ill

Vaug

han

Bram

pton

Cal

edon

Mis

siss

auga

Hal

ton

Hills

Milt

on

Oak

ville

Tota

lYork Peel Halton

Hec

tare

s

Source: Malone Given Parsons, July 2004 “Analysis of Land Supply in the GTA – Hamilton Area” 4. PROVINCIAL POLICY 4.1. Current Policy Under the current Provincial Policy Statement issued under the Planning Act, land-use patterns must provide for industrial, commercial, residential, recreational, open space and institutional uses to promote employment opportunities and for the appropriate range and mix of housing to accommodate growth projected for a time horizon of up to twenty years. In larger regions such as within the Greater Toronto Area it may be necessary to look at time horizons longer than 20 years to properly plan for infrastructure. The current provincial policies also require that municipalities have regard for the long-term economic prosperity to be supported by providing a supply of land to meet long term demographic and market requirements of the current and future residents. The current policy regime also requires that municipalities maintain at all times at least a 10-year supply of land designated and available for new residential development and residential intensifications; and at



least a 3-year supply of residential units with servicing capacity in draft approved or registered plans. At a rate of 6,500 units per year the City has approximately 1.24 years of supply in draft approved and registered plans. 4.2. Recent Provincial Policy Initiatives:

The past ten years have seen enormous changes for municipal government in Ontario, seeing widespread restructuring, a new assessment and property tax system and a new Municipal Act, all fundamentally shifting how municipalities in Ontario are constituted and operated. There were wide ranging reforms to planning, a revised Development Charges Act and the beginning of the Building Strong Communities initiative. Significant changes in 1991 to the Development Charges Act also reduced significantly the ability for municipalities to recoup the full costs of growth. While undertaken for entirely different reasons, the largest effect on planning from the reforms of the 1990s was probably the indirect results of the assessment and property tax reform. In particular, the long held view that non-residential development was of great net fiscal benefit to a municipality and that residential development was a disbenefit is now increasingly in question as the benefit “gap” between the two major classes of land use has very significantly narrowed. This will continue to have significant implications for land use planning decisions. Since the election of a new provincial government in the fall of 2003, their attention within the municipal sphere has now turned very much to planning and growth issues. The results of these initiatives will affect future growth in Brampton and how the City will need to plan to accommodate this growth. The key initiatives are the following:

• Creation of the new Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal charged with managing and coordinating the province’s investments in capital works. These investments are of great importance to growth and planning, as they will include transportation, education, health and water and wastewater services. These investments are to be guided by a series of infrastructure plans, now to be released in early 2005. In the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) area, provincial initiatives will also be guided by a growth management plan, the proposed result of the “Places to Grow” discussion paper released in July of 2004. How these initiatives are eventually implemented is bound to have a great deal of effect on growth management within the City of Brampton.

• The Greenbelt Protection Act was introduced in December of 2003 to provide time to study and for the

new government to consider and implement a new greenbelt within the Golden Horseshoe area. Urban boundary expansions were prohibited for one year (now extended to March 2005) in the study area (the Greater Toronto Area as well as the segments of the Niagara Escarpment, Oak Ridges Moraine and specialty crop lands outside the GTA). The only major expansion in the GTA that might otherwise have been considered during this time would have been Northwest Brampton.

In October 2004, the Province released a Draft Greenbelt Protection Plan and associated legislation (Bill 136). The Draft Greenbelt Protection Plan would help reduce sprawl in the GGH by protecting from development 1.8 million acres of land including the Niagara Escarpment, Oak Ridges Moraine and other protected rural areas. The Greenbelt does not appear to include lands in Brampton other than the Credit River Valley.

• The Strong Communities Act makes a number of changes to the Planning Act, most of which are minor

in the context of the Brampton growth management issues. The two changes of some greater importance are:



• Planning decisions are now held to a higher standard and must be “consistent with” the Provincial Policy Statement rather the previous “have regard for;” and

• Prevents appeals to the OMB of urban expansions that are opposed by elected municipal governments.

This latter item means that since the Northwest Brampton urban boundary expansion requires the approval of the Region of Peel, there would be no avenue to appeal to the OMB by landowners or the by the City in the event that the Region refuses an OPA application. At the same time, this provision would not supercede the Region and City obligations to provide an adequate land supply in accordance with the Provincial Policy Statement.

• A draft of a proposed new Provincial Policy Statement under the Planning Act was released in the

spring of 2004. While there are a large number of differences from the current PPS, probably the most important for Brampton’s long term growth management is that it continues the long-standing obligation of the City to provide for:

• 10 year supply of land designated for new residential development and intensification; • 3-year supply of residential units with servicing capacity in draft approved or registered

plans. • Significant proportion of growth to be accommodated through intensification and infill.

• OMB reform is also on the agenda and while whatever reforms may ultimately be undertaken will

affect Brampton’s growth and development, it if far too early to speculate on what reforms the government might undertake and how they might affect future decisions in Brampton.

• In July of 2004, the province released a discussion paper entitled Places to Grow which represents the

first step toward a growth management plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)1 area. From the provincial perspective the idea of the growth management plan is to direct infrastructure investment and provincial planning policy in the GGH from a single consistent set of objectives. While it remains early in the process, there are a number of strong themes in the document that are notable for Brampton:

• Most of the growth within the GGH is to be directed to the GTA—Hamilton2 area

(rather than a more dispersed growth pattern to areas beyond the Escarpment/Moraine).

• Municipal planning must place a greater focus on providing for growth through intensification and redevelopment within existing urban areas.

• Urban boundary expansions will be necessary in some communities to accommodate the significant levels of growth expected.

• Planning and infrastructure investment must be better managed and coordinated within and between the provincial and municipal governments.

It is clear there are a large number of provincial initiatives, which will be affecting future growth and growth management in the City of Brampton. None are fully implemented and some are only in their infancy. It

1 The Greater Golden Horsehoe is the province’s new planning term for the portions of southern Ontario within the Places to Grow growth management plan area. This includes the GTA—Hamilton and surrounding areas from Northumberland to Simcoe to Waterloo and south to Niagara. 2 For most planning purposes Hamilton is now being included as part of the GTA, so the metropolitan context for Brampton is now generally defined as GTA—Hamilton.



would be purely speculative to suggest the detailed conclusions of these initiatives. At the same time, it is very clear that the provincial approach is to provide a clear direction for planning policy and public/private investment, not to turning the system upside down. The City of Brampton can and should proceed with its long-term planning, growth management and official plan review; although the City must continue to monitor the shifts in provincial direction and policy as these initiatives are implemented. 5. GREATER TORONTO AREA CONTEXT Emerging from a lengthy recession in the 1990s, the GTA has experienced over five years of rapid economic growth. For municipalities, the effect has been most obvious in rapid housing growth and the inability to provide sufficient infrastructure to keep up with the growth. These issues are well known to the City of Brampton, as the City has now become by far the largest market for ground-related housing in the GTA--Hamilton. All indications are that employment growth has also continued to be very strong in Brampton. Brampton has emerged in the current decade under such great growth pressure due to the confluence of a number of factors:

• Over the past several decades, growth, especially job growth, has been increasingly concentrated in the western part of the urban area, rather than to the east. Today, the “centre of gravity” of the GTA is as likely to be considered Pearson Airport as opposed to downtown Toronto. Brampton is well placed in this context, both to attract employment growth and to attract residential growth seeking access to the jobs in the western GTA.

• Mississauga has now largely built out its supply of greenfield land to accommodate ground-related

housing. As Mississauga’s presence in the market declines, the pressure on Brampton will inevitably increase (just as the building out of Etobicoke affected Mississauga 30 years ago). As result, pressure will continue on Brampton.

• The current housing boom has now been larger and more sustained than the housing boom of the

late 1980s. This has been the result of a combination of demographic factors, employment growth, relative economic stability and low interest rates. Historically low interest rates have had the particular effect of making housing very affordable. Brampton, in particular, has been providing a significant part of the GTA’s supply of affordable ground-related housing.

• Brampton has a very large supply of land for both residential and employment development owing

to the large urban boundary expansion in the 1993 official plan and there are few servicing constraints in the City relative to other communities. Southern York Region is currently limited in growth by delays in trunk servicing, meaning that a significant amount of development in Vaughan and Richmond Hill is held up awaiting servicing. Halton is currently constrained by land supply everywhere except in Milton. These limitations to the east and west of Brampton increase the growth pressure on Brampton.

While housing markets are always cyclical and the current boom is likely to subside somewhat over the next year or two, none of the factors listed above are likely to change significantly in the next few years. Brampton will continue to experience high levels of growth pressure. Steps are being taken in the GTA--Hamilton to address growth pressures, that is, to improve our ability to cope with the pressures. The GTA—Hamilton growth pressures are certainly much of the backdrop to the provincial planning initiatives currently being undertaken.



As a basis for long-term planning in the GTA, the upper-tier municipalities of the GTA—Hamilton and the Province of Ontario have recently completed a new set of long-term population and employment forecasts for the GTA-Hamilton and its six constituent upper tiers. The document titled “The Growth Outlook for the Greater Golden Horseshoe” outlines forecasts that will serve as input to provincial, regional and local initiatives in infrastructure planning and growth management. In short the forecasts indicate that the GTA—Hamilton, including Brampton, will continue to experience rapid growth to 2031, even though the rate of growth is expected to slow as the population ages. 6. REGION OF PEEL CONTEXT The City of Brampton also lies within the market and policy context of the Region of Peel. From a market perspective, Brampton now possesses the vast majority of the supply of designated land in the Region for both ground-related residential development and for employment development. Mississauga’s supply of land for lower density housing is nearly exhausted today and the remaining supply of employment land will be nearly exhausted by the end of this decade. To the north, the Town of Caledon has a small supply of designated land for development, which is rapidly developing. This leaves Brampton as the primary location within the Region to accommodate growth and, as a result, it will be accommodating most of the Region’s growth for the life of the current Regional Official Plan to 2021. The recently released Growth Outlook Report estimates that the Region of Peel will grow to 1.61-1.64 million people by 2031. When this number is compared with the forecasts of the individual municipalities of the Region, a disparity of 100,000 people is apparent. As can be seen in Table 7, the separate growth forecasts for the individual municipalities show a total population of 1.51 million by 2031 compared to the 1.61-1.64 million called for by the Growth Outlook Report. The Province should recognize this disparity because it suggests that taken as a whole the three municipalities are not currently planning for the growth depicted by the Growth Outlook Report. A similar gap, although smaller, can be seen between the employment forecasts of the individual municipalities and the Growth Outlook Report

Brampton’s role in accommodating growth in the Region is clearly shown by the Region’s own forecast updated in the Official Plan in 2003. What these forecasts also show is that the current urban boundary is unlikely to be able to accommodate the anticipated growth in the Region to 2031. Initially this would indicate sufficient land demand to allow development of Northwest Brampton, but would also suggest a need for additional urban land beyond Northwest Brampton. Of course with two fully urbanized municipalities, this

Table 7: Individual Municipal Growth Forecasts

YearPop Emp Pop Emp Pop Emp Pop Emp

2001 988,948 534,600 50,595 19,000 325,428 133,600 612,925 382,000 2006 1,185,874 637,100 58,000 23,000 426,374 176,100 701,500 438,000 2011 1,313,179 722,600 67,000 26,000 524,379 227,600 721,800 469,000 2016 1,418,142 774,300 76,000 30,000 612,542 263,300 729,600 481,000 2021 1,480,301 808,000 84,000 33,000 661,701 289,000 734,600 486,000 2031 1,511,031 841,800 84,000 33,000 682,031 322,800 745,000 486,000

* Source: Region of Peel Planning Department March 2003** Source: Hemson Consulting Sept 2004 (High Growth Scenario)*** Source: Mississauga Planning and Building Department November 2003, includes Census undercount

Peel *Caledon **Brampton ***Mississauga



would only leave Caledon to accommodate further Greenfield growth in Peel. Although Caledon has not historically embraced the idea of accommodating significant amounts of growth, the excess Peel growth demand could also shift towards Halton Hills or other unspecified areas of the GTA. How this issue of residual Peel growth demand is worked out will have a significant impact on Brampton over the planning period. If Caledon or other nearby municipalities were to accommodate a more significant share of growth, it could relieve some of the forthcoming growth pressure on Brampton. 7. DISCUSSION OF FINANCIAL AND OTHER CHALLENGES IN RESPONDING

TO HIGH GROWTH RATES For discussion purposes, the challenges faced by the City in responding to high growth rates can be sorted into two categories, financial challenges and co-ordination of infrastructure and services.

7.1. Financial Challenges A significant portion of the infrastructure required to support growth is funded by the development charges revenue collected by the City in accordance with the provisions of the Development Charges Act. However, the Act limits what infrastructure the City can collect for and how the service levels can be calculated. In addition, certain infrastructure that is allowed under the Act is subject to a collection limit of only 90% of the City’s need. The end result is that a significant portion of the capital infrastructure costs required to provide for growth must be covered by a source other than Development Charges revenue, primarily property tax revenue. The exact level of property taxes required to fund growth can be difficult to quantify, however, in the 2004 budget year, the City’s Finance staff identified the following:

• In 2004, $12.3 million in growth related impacts vs. only $8.7 million in assessment growth; • $4.6 million in tax based funding included in 2004 budget for growth related projects (equivalent to a

3.4% tax increase); • $239 million over the next 10 years needed to provide services previously eligible for development

charge funding (under the pre-1996 Act); • the City does not collect enough in development charges to fund necessary growth infrastructure for

facilities such as public works yards and transit storage, reflecting differences in cost estimates and service levels;

• There are additional non-funded capital programs related to growth such as woodlot acquisition, rapid transit, stormwater management retrofit, and pathways expansion.

The pace of growth has an impact on the amount of property taxes collected annually required to support growth. At a slower pace of growth, infrastructure needs would be spread out over a longer timeframe. As a result, a smaller % of the annual property tax revenue would be needed to fund growth. At a faster pace of growth, the opposite is true.

7.2. Co-ordination of Infrastructure and Services In addition to the financial challenges, a significant challenge faced by the City is ensuring that services and infrastructure such as schools, parks, roads, transit, emergency services, sewer and water, indoor and outdoor recreation facilities etc. are provided at the right time and right place so that service level targets are met for both new and existing residents. This requires significant efforts in the planning, financing, detailed design,



property acquisition, regulatory approvals and construction phases for all elements of the City’s infrastructure and services. The City’s current Growth Management Program (GMP) approved in April 2003 was targeted at co-coordinating growth with the infrastructure required to serve that growth with the objective of meeting service level targets for both existing and new residents. Over the last year the City has implemented the GMP and significant progress has been made including the following achievements:

• Early provision of School Sites in initial phases of subdivisions (i.e. Vales of Castlemore, Bram East, Bram West)

• Early provision of collector road networks in initial phases of subdivisions (i.e. New Creditview Road and Financial Drive in Bram West)

• Landowner commitments to infrastructure co-ordination through Staging and Sequencing Plans in new secondary plans

• Establishing a Growth Management Development Review Team with biweekly meetings of staff from City Departments, School Boards, Region of Peel and Conservation Authorities

The results of this success will only be seen on the ground in the next few years as the developments approved since adopting the GMP are actually built. Because the City is planning on the basis of 4500 units per year when it is evident that the City will grow at a rate of 5500+ units per year, the GMP is not enough. Despite the successes to date with the GMP, certain areas have been identified where improvements can be made or are necessary to address the ongoing challenges faced by the City and the emerging growth management initiatives of the Province. Four key areas for improvement are discussed below: City Wide Co-ordination: The data and analysis for the GMP has generally been undertaken at the Secondary Plan level and implementation has generally been carried out through comments and conditions provided on individual development applications. This approach has led to some success and will continue to provide improved performance towards meeting our growth management objectives as the developments being planned today move to construction. However, the current Program approach does not provide a mechanism for prioritizing growth areas and efforts across the City. Such a mechanism to prioritize growth areas will be increasingly necessary with the higher growth rates now being forecast for Brampton’s future, the challenges the City faces in responding to growth, and various provincial initiatives which increasingly require that infrastructure investments and resource allocation decisions strategically support growth priorities. In Part B Section 2 of this Report, there is a discussion and recommendations about the forecast distribution. The approach recommended is intended to provide an opportunity for the City to establish criteria and set goals for how the City will prioritize its allocation of resources to support growth. Timing of Road Improvements: Currently the growth management requirements generally reflect road improvements being in place in the year that is recorded in either the City or Region’s capital budgets. However, most major projects are not in service until at least 2 years after the money is available through the capital budgets because of the time it takes for detailed design, property acquisition, utility relocation etc. This time difference combined with the pace of growth in Brampton has resulted in service levels not meeting the City’s objectives.



It is recommended that the Growth Management Program implementation details be enhanced to track not just the capital budget allocation for road projects but also the anticipated construction timing before the facility becomes operational. Emergency Services: The 2003 Development Outlook Report guidelines dealt with Brampton Fire Department infrastructure needed to address response issues in growth areas and indicated that ambulance service issues would be evaluated in the future. City staff have now met with the Region of Peel Ambulance Services staff who advise that, in Brampton, current legislated response times (8 minutes) are not being met and in fact response times are increasing. The issues surrounding this diminishing level of service include the need for additional staff and vehicle resources to serve a rapidly growing population. In addition, there is a direct relationship between response times and the overall capacity of the health care system in Brampton. Delays at transferring patients to care at a Brampton Memorial Hospital, or the need to take patients to distant emergency facilities because capacity is not available locally, have a direct impact on the amount of ambulance staff and vehicle resources needed to maintain response times. The situation is expected to improve, should additional emergency care infrastructure be built in Brampton. School Infrastructure: There has been some success with accommodating school sites earlier in the development process but both School Boards are finding difficulties negotiating the acquisition/cost of land especially when unmotivated vendors show little intention to develop in the near future. In addition now schools are being considered at an early phase of community development. Coordination of local infrastructure such as local road improvements, cross walks and sidewalk construction are increasingly at issue. City staff are developing protocols with school board staff to address these issues. Recreation Infrastructure: With the Recreation Master Plan underway, coordination with the Growth Management Plan will be imperative to ensuring that the necessary recreational and park facilities will be available to meet City growth. As a City we need to do a better job of identifying and monitoring service areas for Community Park, City Wide Park and Recreation Centre facilities.


__________________________________________________________________________________________ Part B – Development Outlook Scenarios 13 January 2005

PART B: DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK SCENARIOS 2004 1. CITY OF BRAMPTON GROWTH FORECAST SCENARIOS 1.1. Residential In this current environment of a continued housing boom, a shifting policy regime and uncertainty about land supply in neighbouring communities, the City of Brampton needs to consider a forecast range of future growth. The current uncertainties almost entirely reflect the timing of development. There is little doubt that designated urban lands in Brampton can be fully developed within 20 or 30 years. The important matter for Brampton’s current growth management and municipal service planning is when development will occur and when infrastructure is required. As a result, a forecast range has been prepared which addresses a range on the timing of development under three scenarios. All three scenarios are based on the same forecast outlook for the GTA—Hamilton area and vary by the distribution of growth within the GTA—Hamilton area, thus varying the timing of development in Brampton. The three scenarios are the following: High Growth Scenario The high forecast scenario is the results of the asking the question “what if” there were delays in providing adequate development land in Brampton’s neighbouring areas resulting in pressures for Brampton to accommodate a larger share of GTA—Hamilton growth than might otherwise be expected. This scenario is based on the current pace of development of over 6,000 units continuing through to 2016, before slowing, as Brampton's own land supply constraints begin to affect development. Under this scenario, Brampton's housing supply would be effectively built out to the existing urban boundary by about 2016. Table 8: Brampton High Growth Forecast

Medium Growth Scenario The medium growth scenario is based on continued rapid development in Brampton through 2005 and into 2006, followed by a slowing from the current rate of about 6,300 units per year (2001 to 2006 average) to about 5,500 units per year for the period to 2016. Under this scenario the City could expect to reach build out of the current urban boundary greenfields supply of residential land by about 2018.

High Growth Scenario2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031

Dwelling Units 97,560 129,391 162,753 195,460 214,992 227,882Household Size 3.32 3.28 3.21 3.12 3.07 2.98Pop 325,000 426,000 524,000 613,000 662,000 682,000



The forecast scenario assumes that other neighbouring regions continue to provide land and servicing to accommodate the levels of growth anticipated in those areas. Such assumptions would include, for example, that the North Oakville area comes on stream when planned and that York Region resolves current servicing constraints and assures an adequate supply of lands in the Region. Table 7: Brampton Medium Growth Forecast

Low Growth Scenario The Low Scenario is based on a slowing of the current pace of development over the next couple of years resulting an average of just under 6,000 units for the 2001 to 2006 period, and then falling to about 4,500 units annually through 2021. Under this scenario, Brampton’s total housing supply would be 90% built out by about 2023 including the North-West Brampton urban expansion area. The City could expect to reach build out of the current urban boundary greenfields supply of residential land by about 2021. This forecast scenario tests a generally lower scenario of growth in Brampton based on housing growth about 20% less than the Reference Scenarios. This lower level of growth could arise from a wide range of seasons including: policy decisions in the City of Brampton, market shifts directing more growth to other parts of the GTA—Hamilton or just generally slower population or economic growth in the GTA-Hamilton area. Although provided for reference purposes, City staff and our consultants (Hemson Consulting) do not see that the conditions necessary to see this forecast realized are very likely given the current circumstances in terms of national economic conditions, interest rates, the GTA housing market and land supply. It should be noted that the low growth scenario is fairly consistent with the Brampton forecast included in Region of Peel Official Plan last year, published in the 2003 GMP and utilized for the City’s recently approved Development Charges By-law. Table 9: Brampton Low Growth Forecast

Reference (Medium) Growth Scenario2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031

Dwelling Units 97,560 129,182 156,706 184,091 206,119 227,457Household Size 3.32 3.28 3.20 3.11 3.06 2.98Pop 325,000 426,000 504,000 575,000 633,000 681,000

Low Growth Scenario2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031

Dwelling Units 97,560 126,655 149,032 172,139 192,748 222,021Household Size 3.32 3.28 3.19 3.10 3.04 2.97 Pop 325,000 417,000 478,000 536,000 589,000 662,000



1.2. Employment The employment forecasts under each of the scenarios reflect a similar range as the Reference, Low and High Scenarios; the What If? Scenario showing more rapid growth than the Reference Scenario and reaching a slightly higher level at the end of the forecast period; and the Low Scenario showing slower rate of growth and resulting in about 20% less employment growth over the 2001 to 2031 period than in the Reference Scenario. Table 10: Brampton Employment Growth Forecast

2. STRATEGIC OPTIONS FOR ADDRESSING HIGH GROWTH Although the City has planned for growth in the range of 4500 units per year, the number of building permits issued for new residential units in 2004 was 9574, in part due to the number of developers looking to get building permits applications approved prior to the new Development Charges increase. Continued high growth can be considered very likely given the emerging policy framework which will tend to encourage intensification, and discourage urban area expansions, the shortage of urban designated land in the GTA-Hamilton Area and a continued significant demand for low density forms of housing. Therefore, the City needs to consider revised forecasts as they relate to the current housing market and shifting provincial initiatives such as those presented by the reference and high growth forecasts. In addition, the City needs to consider possible measures to deal with the potential high levels of growth and the ability for the City to accommodate that growth through the current financial model and resources available to deliver required infrastructure. As discussed in Section 7 above, the current GMP provides a tool for assisting in the coordination of infrastructure with growth, not as a mechanism for prohibiting development. The GMP is typically applied on an application-by-application basis and on an analysis generally undertaken at an individual Secondary Plan level; as such it does not provide a mechanism for prioritizing growth areas across the City. A mechanism to prioritize growth areas will be increasingly necessary with the higher growth rates now being forecast for Brampton’s future given the challenges the City faces in responding to growth, and various provincial initiatives which increasingly require that infrastructure investments and resource allocation decisions strategically support growth priorities. The City will continue to apply the GMP on a site-specific or secondary plan basis, flagging shortfalls in infrastructure and coordinating the staging and phasing of development with level of service to meet growth. However, the City should consider additional measures to ensure that resources needed to support growth are focused on areas that best meet the core public objectives such as providing a range of housing opportunities, providing employment opportunities, and minimizing growth in travel demand.

Year 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031Low 133,600 174,600 213,100 241,900 259,900 277,400 Change 41,000 38,500 28,800 18,000 17,500 Medium 133,600 176,100 227,600 263,300 289,000 322,800 Change 42,500 51,500 35,700 25,700 33,800 High 133,600 176,200 231,700 270,500 295,500 326,600 Change 42,600 55,500 38,800 25,000 31,100



Some criteria aimed at prioritizing areas growth that best achieve public objectives could include focusing on:

• Areas that can be easily serviced by extensions to existing infrastructure and do not require leap-frogging of undeveloped or underdeveloped areas;

• Areas that can provide a mix of housing opportunities and forms; • Areas that can be developed at higher, transit supportive densities thereby minimizing the growth

in automobile traffic which is placing unsustainable pressures on the City’s roads; • Areas that utilize innovative transit oriented community design principles including mixed use

corridors; • Areas with sufficient high quality community open space and recreation facilities planned,

programmed and funded such that undue stresses are not placed on existing recreation and open space infrastructure;

• Areas that enhance the City’s objective to promote live/work within the City by providing significant employment growth.

Some options, which may be considered in order to achieve objectives for prioritizing growth areas in the face of high growth, rates as well as respond to the financial challenges and challenges of keeping pace with infrastructure construction are provided in Table 12. All these options represent potential opportunities and solutions as well as challenges. One of the purposes of this Discussion Paper is to stimulate discussion and feedback on these and other options for the City and others to respond to the high growth rates which appear to be in the City’s future.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Part B – Development Outlook Scenarios 17 January 2005

Option Description Comment

Status Quo

• Continue to utilize GMP

• Continue to pursue all Sec Plan and Block Plan proposals with equal priority

• Continue to pursue N-W Brampton urban boundary expansion

• Without identifying priority areas for growth or placing policy restrictions on market forces, the City will not be able to maintain appropriate service levels for existing and new residents without significant capital & operating budget & property tax implications.

Delay Further Residential

Designations

• Further commitments to advance residentially designated land would be carefully evaluated and given relative priority levels by Council

• Those with lower priority would be delayed (i.e. new secondary plan areas such as Vales of Humber, employment land conversions)

• Some positive affects in that resources could be focused just on areas with current Residential Designations

• It is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall growth rate or resolve difficulty in meeting service levels

• Some landowner's in areas given lower priority will object to having further Sec Plan designations delayed

Priority FocusedDevelopment

• Council would adopt specific criteria for prioritizing growth areas (i.e. specific criteria and specific Sec Plans would be identified)

• Areas given high priority would be targeted for growth, areas given lower priority would have development delayed

• Would allow even more focus on priority areas and may have an impact on the pace of growth by slowing pace of lower priority areas already given Sec Plan residential designations

• Some landowner's in areas already designated and yet given lower priority will object and landowner's in areas given lower priority will object to having further Sec Plan designations delayed

Draft PlanApproval Cap

• An annual CAP placed on the max units draft approved in the calendar year (i.e. approximately 5500 units per year)

• Difficult to establish the relative priority of individual development proposals and would require additional staff resources to effectively implement

• Strictly a first come, first served approach would leave shortfalls in key infrastructure in some communities such as road extensions, schools and parks

• Some landowner's not included in annual CAP will object

Tool-Up forHigh Growth

• Provide sufficient staff resources for development review, capital and operating functions to support High Growth Forecasts

• Seek additional financial tools from the Province and others to support High Growth Forecasts

• Still means High Growth in Brampton

• Even if Province endorses additional funding sources or mechanisms, there will be delay until they are actually in place

• Increased staff capacity in development review will facilitate high rates of growth

*Note - one, some or all of the above could be used together

Table 12: Potential Strategic Options For Responding to High Growth*



3. FORECAST DISTRIBUTION 3.1 Intensification Planning in the GTA—Hamilton area has been increasingly focused on providing for a larger component of growth through intensification of existing built-up areas. This has occurred for many reasons, among them to: provide more efficient use of existing infrastructure; reduce the need to designate additional greenfield urban lands and increase the population density within existing urban areas to encourage transit. For example, the recent Provincial Place to Grow report suggests a target of 40% of growth through intensification, though how this is to be defined, measured, monitored or implemented has not been indicated as yet.

Intensification itself is a normal process in the evolution of an urban area. During early stages of development, growth is typically primarily accommodated on greenfield locations. As communities age, an increasing share of growth is accommodated through infill, redevelopment and vacant sites within the existing developed area. Virtually all of the housing growth in the City of Toronto over the past 25 years has been through intensification. In Brampton, it has historically been a small share, but it will increase over time. Policies to encourage intensification can assist in achieving intensification goals, however local planning policy cannot on its own assure high levels of intensification. By it’s nature, most units provided through intensification are medium and high density (rowhousing, stacked rowhousing and apartments). However, these types of units only represent a portion of the market --- many households still prefer single and semi-detached housing, more difficult to provide through intensification. The housing preferences of households (singles vs. apartments, etc.) are the results a wide range of social, demographic, economic and cultural phenomena. Few of the policies, which might influence these choices, are within the jurisdiction of municipalities. Any policies that have the affect of restricting land supply in favour of intensification has the unintended consequence of limiting the amount of affordable housing. A significant amount of growth through intensification is forecast for Brampton over the planning period to 2031. The forecast suggests additional growth of about 400 low-density units and about 5,000 medium and high-density units over the period to 2031 within already built up areas of the City, beyond the identified inventory of available vacant sites in Brampton. It is expected that these units will be provided through the redevelopment and intensification of existing developed lands. In addition, there are a number of designated medium and high density sites throughout the serviced portion of the City which are expected to be developed as the market for higher density housing forms grows. 3.2 Forecast Distribution – Alternative Scenarios The three City wide growth scenarios noted above translate into various growth scenarios at the Secondary Planning Area level. The rate of growth for the City has an effect on when certain services and infrastructure will be required. Growth within the City of Brampton has generally been distributed among several active Secondary Planning Areas. As indicated in Table 10, although the Fletcher’s Meadow Secondary Planning Area ( 5 yr average of over 2300 units/year) has seen the most growth over the past 4 years, growth across the City has been distributed across several Secondary Planning areas including Springdale, Bram East, Vales of Castlemore, and recently Bram West.



Table 10: 2000-2004 High Growth Secondary Plans in Brampton (units per year)

Based on the High, Medium and Low City wide forecasts developed by Hemson Consulting, City staff have developed several alternative scenarios distributing those forecasts by the approximately 50 secondary plans across the City. These forecast distributions are generally based on the current development proposals, anticipated timing of land use approvals and the anticipated timing of relevant municipal services. In addition to the High, Medium and Low growth forecast distributions by Secondary Planning Area, a distribution of the High Growth forecast considering early development of North West Brampton has been prepared for analysis purposes. Detailed tables of the various forecasts by Secondary Planning Areas are available in the 2004 Development Outlook Report. To help demonstrate the variation between these forecasts, the following maps have been prepared showing the percentage of the ultimate development within each secondary plan for the current year (2004) and the year 2011 for each scenario.

SPA 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042-NW Sandalw ood Parkw ay 647 616 238 55 139 1-Snelgrove 195 84 32 180 160 43-Fletchers Creek 410 418 531 176 175 24-Flether's South 1 99 236 22 242 42-Vales of Castlem ore 698 436 425 210 625 49-Vales North - - - 139 910 40-Bram W est - - 119 329 1,003 28-Springdale 1,154 320 841 1,490 1,170 9-Madoc - - - - 1,343 41-Bram East - 539 837 602 1,558 44-Fletcher's Meadow 1,703 2,246 3,074 2,771 2,100 Total 4,808 4,758 6,333 5,974 9,425 Other 510 200 129 696 149 City Total 5,318 4,958 6,462 6,670 9,574

B r a m p t o n G r o w t h M a n a g e m e n t P r o g r a m

DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK REPORT 2004 9

Map 1 Representative Mapping of Development in the Year 2004



4. RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS 4.1 Policy Initiatives

• Consider ‘Political Level’ contact with the Province to highlight Brampton’s disproportionate accommodation of GTA planned growth

• Accelerate the ongoing OP Review and develop a, strategic response to high growth forecasts,

and associated modifications to the GMP.

• Continue to provide Brampton Response and comments to the ongoing Provincial growth management initiatives.

4.2 Reference Forecasts for Current Planning Initiatives

• Publish a 2004 edition of the GMP Development Outlook Report based on the medium growth forecast for use until the above policy initiatives and ongoing Provincial initiatives are further advanced



APPENDIX 1:

BRAMPTON POPULATION & HOUSING FORECASTS, HEMSON CONSULTING, OCTOBER 2004

(LOW, MEDIUM & HIGH SCENARIOS)



APPENDIX 1: Brampton Population & Housing Forecasts, Hemson Consulting, October 2004 (Low, Medium & High Scenarios)



APPENDIX 2:

BRAMPTON EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS, HEMSON CONSULTING, OCTOBER 2004

(LOW, MEDIUM & HIGH SCENARIOS)



APPENDIX 2: Brampton Employment Forecasts, Hemson Consulting, October 2004 (Low, Medium & High Scenarios)

brampton growth management discussion paper

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