1© MOTIVEQUEST 10/30/08

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1-Sep

3-Sep

5-Sep

7-Sep

9-Sep

11-Sep

13-Sep

15-Sep

17-Sep

19-Sep

21-Sep

23-Sep

25-Sep

27-Sep

29-Sep 1-Oct

3-Oct

5-Oct

7-Oct

9-Oct

11-Oct

13-Oct

15-Oct

17-Oct

19-Oct

21-Oct

23-Oct

25-Oct

27-Oct

29-Oct

Candidate Online Promoter Score

McCain

Obama

2nd Presidentialdebate

1st Presidential debate

VP debate

Bailout Bill Fails

Economic Meltdown news Breaks

RepublicanConventionPalin arrives

McCain misleading

ads

3rd Presidential debate

Palin SNL

Obama30 Minute infomercial

McCain Socialist

attack

2© MOTIVEQUEST 10/30/08

3© MOTIVEQUEST 10/30/08

CORRELATION: How does Online advocacy relate to traditional polls?

From one perspective, it’s apples and oranges, polls attempt to measure the outcome of the presidential election if it were held on a particular day, MQ is measuring the number of people who are advocating a particular candidate.  On the flip side, if you believe as we do that people advocating to each other is an important piece of the future success of brands, products (and candidates) then we hope to show that the candidate with the most advocates will be the winner of the election. Important caveat, we don’t have an electoral college or battleground states so at best we can hope to use advocacy as an indicator of the popular vote. Using the data from the CNN Poll of Polls as a comparison metric, HYPOTHETICALLY, let’s assume that CNN Poll of Polls represents “truth”, we can apply straight forward regression to determine if the Advocacy metric for Obama is statistically related to the Poll of Polls data.  Regression shows that Obama’s Online Promoter™ score is statistically significant in linkage to the CNN’s poll of Polls results at > 98%

4© MOTIVEQUEST 10/30/08

PREDICTION: Furthermore, we can look to see if perhaps MQ’s results might lead the traditional polling methods, the relation appears strongest at 4-days leading.

The strongest statistical link from Obama’s Online Promoter™ Score to the CNN Poll of Poll’s results appears when we make Obama’s OPS a 4-day leading indicator of the Poll of Polls.

Read more here:http://www.brandadvocacy08.com/popup_splash.htmlAnd here:http://humanvoice.wordpress.com/2008/10/23/sara-palin-snl-josh-bernoff-has-questions/