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Brazil: Integrated assessment and

planning in the context of the

sustainable Amazon Plan:

With focus on the BR-163 Highway area of

influence and the soybean sector

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Preface

Soybean crop expansion in the Amazônia is a matter of contention in this millennium due to environmental sensitivity and international visibility of the region. The soybean has become the main Brazilian export commodity, with the central-western region the greatest producer in the country, which are mainly cerrado (savannah) areas. This central-western region accounts for around 26.8 per cent of all cultivated areas in Brazil. The State of Mato Grosso, part of the Legal Amazônia, contributes 14.0 per cent of all cropped areas and 24.4 per cent of all soybean cultivation areas in Brazil.

Technological breakthroughs and the availability of flat and cheap land provided enormous competitive advantage to Brazil in the international market, in spite of the high transportation costs. Transportation costs are the major problem that drives soybean cultivation to the Amazonian forest region, not the territorial aspect of soybean cultivation. We do recognize the strategic role of the agribusiness for the future of this country and the legitimate interest of the soybean sector in the pavement of the BR-163 Highway to reach the port of Santarém-PA, enabling the sector to benefit from a multi-modal road-fluvial transport system. This will reduce transportation costs and make the Northern export corridor across Amazônia viable.

The Ministry of the Environment’s concern is that this investment in infrastructure, though necessary for the whole population in the area of influence, should not aggravate environmental problems such as deforestation, and social and land tenure issues. This is the main reason why the Federal Government decided to create the Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG) to formulate a regional sustainable development plan for the BR-163 Cuiabá-Santarém Highway area of influence.

Furthermore, the Office for Sustainable Development Policies (SDS), together with the Office for the Coordination of the Amazônia (SCA) agreed to support this UNEP/DTIE integrated assessment study of the soybean sector in Brazil.

This study uses an integrated approach of economic, social and environmental dimensions to analyse the complex regional realities and understand the actual impacts of soybean expansion on the environment and on the local population. Such analysis brings about real contribution to decision-makers on different levels, for the implementation of a development plan not only reduces eventual negative effects of economic investments (production and infrastructure), but also promotes orderly development and sustainable use of biodiversity. The recommendations of this study require study by all levels of decision making that the IWG will be implementing for the BR-163 sustainable plan.

Dr. Gilney Amorim VianaSecretary for Sustainable Development Policies

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Acronyms and abbrev�at�ons

ABAG Brazilian Agribusiness Association

ADA Amazon Development Agency

AIP Annual Incidence of Parasites

ALAP Provisional Jurisdictional Area

AM State of Amazonas

APA Environmental Protection Area

APL Local Production Arrangement

ARV Antiretroviral

BASA Banco da Amazônia (Bank of the Amazon)

BID Inter-American Development Bank

BNDES National Bank for Economic and Social Development

CCIR Rural Property Record Certificate

CDS Sustainable Development Center

CGPNCM General Coordination of the National Malaria Control Program

CI Inter-ministerial Coordination Commission

CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora

CNPq National Counsel for Scientific and Technological Development

CONAMA National Environment Council

CVRD Companhia Vale do Rio Doce

DTIE Division for Technology, Industry and Economy

ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

EIA Environmental Impact Study

EMATER-PA Pará’s Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Enterprise

EMBRAPA Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation

EMPAER-MT Mato Grosso’s Rural Research, Assistance and Extension Enterprise

ESALQ Luiz de Queiroz High School of Agriculture

ETB Economics and Trade Branch

FCO Constitutional Fund for the Financing of the Mid-West Region

FINEP Funding Organization for Studies and Projects

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Integrated assessment and plann�ng �n the context of the susta�nable Amazon Plan

FNO Constitutional Fund for the Financing of the North Region

FUNDEFE National Fund for Primary Education Development and for Enhancing the Value of the

Teaching Profession

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GESAC Electronic Government/Citizen Service Programme

GPTI Permanent Inter-ministerial Work Group

GTI Inter-ministerial Work Group

HDI Human Development Index

IAG International Advisory Group

IAP Integrated Assessment and Planning

IBAMA Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Natural Renewable Resources

IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

IDAM Institute for Agricultural Development of Amazonas

INCRA National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform

INPE National Space Research Institute

IPEA Applied Economic Research Institute

IWG Inter-ministerial Working Group

LDB National Education Guidelines and Framework Act

LMA Level of Market Activity

MAPA Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply

MCT Ministry of Science and Technology

MD Ministry of Defense

MDA Ministry of Agrarian Development

MDIC Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade

MDM Millennium Development Goals

MEAs Multilateral environmental agreements

MI Ministry of National Integration

MJ Ministry of Justice

MMA Ministry of the Environment

MME Ministry of Mines and Energy

MoU Memorandum of Understanding

MPOG Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management

MR Meso-region

MT Ministry of Transport

MTE Ministry of Labour and Employment

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

PA State of Pará

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PAE Extractivist Settlement Project

PAF Forest Settlement Project

PAS Sustainable Amazon Plan

PDRI Integrated Regional Development Plan

PEA Working population

PETI Child Labor Eradication Program

PHPN Prenatal and Birth Care Humanization Program

PIC Prior Informed Consent

PID Integrated Public Land Disposal Plan

PNRA National Agrarian Reform Plan

POPs Persistent Organic Pollutants

PPA Pluriannual Plan

PPC Public Policy Capacity

PPG-7 Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain Forest

PROECOTUR National Ecotourism Program

PRONAF National Family-based Agriculture Program

RAIS Annual Social Information Report

RDS Sustainable Development Reserves

RESEX Extractive Reserve

RIMA Environmental Impact Report

SA Sub-area

SAMU Emergency Medical Care Service

SBC Secretariat of the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of

Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal

SCA Amazon Coordination Secretariat

SDR Regional Development Secretariat

SDS Secretariat for Sustainable Development Policies

SISMAL Malaria Information System

SISNAMA National Environment System

SIVEP Epidemiological Surveillance Information System

STD/Aids Sexually Transmitted Diseases/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

SUAS Unified Social Assistance System

TI Indigenous land

UC Conservation Unit

UHE Hydroelectric Plant

UnB University of Brasilia

UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

Acronyms and abbrev�at�ons

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WTO World Trade Organization

ZEE Economic and Ecological Zoning

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Acknowledgements

This publication is based on the results from the Integrated Assessment and Planning (IAP) project implemented in Federative Republic of Brazil from January 2004. UNEP would like to begin by thanking the project partner, Ministry of the Environment, for its cooperation and commitment.

UNEP is also highly indebted to UNEP/Brazil coordinator Cristina Montenegro and her assistant, Yana Dumaresq for everything they did for the completion of this project. Of course, other members of the Steering Group, such as Flavia Lima, Julio Miragaya, Onice Dall ‘Oglio, Sandra Faillace and Cássio Pereira were all supportive of the study. UNEP also owes acknowledgements to many researchers from different universities but especially wishes to thank Raimunda Monteiro and Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior, who voluntarily shared their expertise and experience.

An international group of experts provided important input to the project. UNEP would like to express its gratitude to members of this group: Jiri Dusik, Jan Joost Kessler, Barry Sadler and Salah el Serafy for their time, effort, and advice, including comments on the draft version of this report.

UNEP also wishes to gratefully acknowledge the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for its funding support, which made this project in Brazil and eight other countries possible. At UNEP, the project was initiated and under the overall supervision of Hussein Abaza. Maria Cecilia Pineda and Fulai Sheng coordinated this project and provided technical support. Desiree Leon facilitated the processing of the report for editing and typesetting. Rahila Mughal provided administrative support for the project.

UNEP’s appreciation also goes to Ho Hui Lin of iPublish Pte Ltd for providing editorial and typesetting services.

Notwithstanding the valuable contributions of many acknowledged here, the full responsibility for the content of this report remains with the authors.

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Un�ted Nat�ons Env�ronment Programme

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is the overall coordinating environmental organization of the United Nations system. Its mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnerships in caring for the environment, by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and people to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations. In accordance with its mandate, UNEP works to observe, monitor, and assess the state of the global environment; improve the scientific understanding of how environmental change occurs; and in turn, determine how such change can be managed by action-oriented national policies and international agreements. UNEP’s capacity building work thus centres on helping countries strengthen environmental management in diverse areas, which include freshwater and land resource management; the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, marine and coastal ecosystem management; and cleaner industrial production and eco-efficiency, among many others.

UNEP, headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, marked its first 30 years of service in 2002. During this time, in partnership with a global array of collaborating organizations, UNEP achieved major advances in the development of international environmental policy and law, environmental monitoring and assessment, and our understanding of the science of global change. This work also supports the successful development and implementation of the world’s major environmental conventions. In parallel, UNEP administers several multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), including the Vienna Convention’s Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal (SBC), the Convention on Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade (Rotterdam Convention, PIC), the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety to the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs).

Division of Technology, Industry and EconomicsThe mission of the Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) is to encourage decision makers in government, local authorities and industry to develop and adopt policies, strategies, and practices that are cleaner and safer, make efficient use of natural resources, ensure environmentally sound management of chemicals, and reduce pollution and risks for humans and the environment. In addition, it seeks to enable implementation of conventions and international agreements and encourage the internalization of environmental costs. UNEP DTIE’s strategy in carrying out these objectives is to influence decision-making through partnerships with other international organizations, governmental authorities, business and industry, and NGOs; facilitate knowledge management through networks; support implementation of conventions; and work closely with UNEP regional offices. The Division, with its Director and Division Office in Paris, consists of one centre and five branches located in Paris, Geneva and Osaka.

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Economics and Trade Branch The Economics and Trade Branch (ETB) is one of the five branches of DTIE. Its mission is to enhance the capacities of developing countries and transition economies to integrate environmental considerations into development planning and macroeconomic policies, including trade policies. ETB helps countries develop and use integrated assessment and incentive tools for achieving poverty reduction and sustainable development. The Branch further works to improve our understanding of environmental, social, and economic effects of trade liberalization and the effects of environmental policies on trade, and works to strengthen coherence between Multilateral Environmental Agreements and the World Trade Organization. ETB also helps enhance the role of the financial sector in moving towards sustainability. Through its finance initiatives, ETB also helps enhance the role of the financial sector in moving towards sustainability.

For more information on the general programme of the Economics and Trade Branch, please contact:

Hussein AbazaChief, Economics and Trade Branch (ETB)Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE)United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)11-13 Chemin des Anemones1219 Chatelaine/GenevaTel : 41-22-917 81 79Fax : 41-22-917 80 76http://www.unep.ch/etb

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Table of contents

Preface ..................................................................................................................................... i

Acronyms and abbreviations ...................................................................................... iii

Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... vii

United Nations Environment Programme ........................................................... ix

Table of contents ............................................................................................................... xi

List of figures ....................................................................................................................... xiii

List of tables ......................................................................................................................... xiii

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Overview of the Brazilian Amazon ................................................................................ 2

2. State planning processes ........................................................................................ 5

2.1 The Pluriannual Plan ...................................................................................................... 5

2.2 The Sustainable Amazon Plan ....................................................................................... 6

2.3 Permanent inter-ministerial Workgroup ........................................................................ 6

2.4 The BR-163 Plan ............................................................................................................ 6

2.4.1 BR-163 Plan creation ......................................................................................... 7

2.4.2 Major social challenges ...................................................................................... 7

2.4.3 IAG analysis of the BR-163 Plan ....................................................................... 8

2.4.4 Stakeholders in the BR-163 Plan ....................................................................... 9

2.5 IAP’s contribution .......................................................................................................... 10

3. Economic uses of land in the BR-163 region ................................................ 13

3.1 BR-163 area of influence ............................................................................................... 13

3.2 The soybean business ..................................................................................................... 15

3.2.1 Soybean growing by region ................................................................................ 17

3.2.2 Modern production and BR-163 ........................................................................ 18

3.3 The cattle business ......................................................................................................... 20

3.4 The logging business ...................................................................................................... 22

3.5 Land use and price ......................................................................................................... 23

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4. Economic, social and environmental indicators and links .................. 27

4.1 Economic indicators ....................................................................................................... 27

4.1.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) .......................................................................... 27

4.1.2 Income profile .................................................................................................... 28

4.1.3 Employment profile ............................................................................................ 29

4.2 Social indicators ............................................................................................................. 30

4.2.1 Human Development Index ............................................................................... 30

4.2.2 Poverty levels ..................................................................................................... 32

4.2.3 Healthcare ........................................................................................................... 34

4.2.4 Education ............................................................................................................ 35

4.3 Environmental impact indicators ................................................................................... 36

4.3.1 Recent state of deforestation .............................................................................. 36

4.4 Economic expansion, environment and poverty links ................................................... 38

4.4.1 Land occupation and deforestation ..................................................................... 38

4.4.2 Frontier, poverty and environment ..................................................................... 38

4.4.3 Winners and losers ............................................................................................. 39

5. Integrated assessment and scenarios ............................................................ 41

5.1 Causal relationships between variables and indicators .................................................. 41

5.2 Public policies and governance ...................................................................................... 43

5.3 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................ 44

5.4 Scenarios 1 ..................................................................................................................... 44

5.5 Scenarios 2 ..................................................................................................................... 45

5.6 Scenarios 3 ..................................................................................................................... 47

5.7 Scenarios 4 ..................................................................................................................... 48

5.8 Further evaluation of scenarios ...................................................................................... 50

5.9 Integrated impacts of environment and social issues ..................................................... 51

6. Policy recommendations ......................................................................................... 53

6.1 Structuring and articulation of policy measures ............................................................ 53

6.2 Policy measures to reduce land grabbing, uncontrolled land occupation, and

deforestation ................................................................................................................... 53

6.3 Policies for development ................................................................................................ 54

6.4 Policy measures for social inclusion and impacts from uncontrolled growth of

medium and small cities ................................................................................................. 55

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7. Final comments ............................................................................................................. 57

Appendix I: Losers from existing BR-163 Plan ..................................................................... 59

Appendix II: Supporting maps ................................................................................................ 62

Appendix III: Supporting data ................................................................................................ 65

Appendix IV: Project participants and coordinators ............................................................... 72

References ............................................................................................................................... 73

List of figures

Figure 1: Scope of BR-163 Highway .................................................................................... 14

Figure 2: Soybean production in Brazil 1952-2005 .............................................................. 16

Figure 3: Area covered with soybean crops in Brazil 2003 .................................................... 17

Figure 4: Soybean growing in BR-163 area of influence 1990-2004 .................................... 18

Figure 5: Bovine stocks 1990-2003 ...................................................................................... 20

Figure 6: Density of cattle stocks (numbers/ha) 1990-2003 ................................................... 21

Figure 7: Quantity of wood logs 1990-2003 .......................................................................... 22

Figure 8: Land use by region 1996 ........................................................................................ 23

Figure 9: Numbers and sizes of estates ................................................................................... 24

Figure 10: Average land prices by Meso-Region, R$/ha ....................................................... 25

Figure 11: GDP growth by Meso-regions 1996-2002 ........................................................... 28

Figure 12: Income distribution by sector 2003 ....................................................................... 29

Figure 13: Employment by sector 2003 .................................................................................. 30

Figure 14: Overall HDI, 1991 and 2000 ................................................................................ 31

Figure 15: Longevity HDI, 1991 and 2000 ............................................................................ 31

Figure 16: Education HDI, 1991 and 2000 ............................................................................ 32

Figure 17: Poverty levels ...................................................................................................... 33

Figure 18: Indigence levels ..................................................................................................... 33

Figure 19: Annual incidence of parasites in Brazil ............................................................... 35

Figure 20: Deforestation trends 2000-2004 ........................................................................... 37

Figure 21: A dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process ............................................. 42

Figure 22: BR-163 strategies for sustainable development ................................................... 43

List of tables

Table 1: Scenario construction summary for IAP ................................................................... 11

Table 2: BR-163 area of influence by Meso-regions and Sub-areas ...................................... 15

Table 3: Gross domestic product of municipalities ................................................................ 27

Table 4: Malaria cases in Meso-Regions 1999-2004 .............................................................. 34

Table 5: Deforested area 2000-2004 ....................................................................................... 36

Table 6: Public policies and impacts ...................................................................................... 43

Table of contents

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Table 7: Scenario construction summary for IAP (repeat) ..................................................... 44

Table 8: Scenario 1 indicators ................................................................................................. 45

Table 9: Scenario 2 indicators ................................................................................................. 46

Table 10: Scenario 3 indicators ............................................................................................... 47

Table 11: Scenario 4 indicators ............................................................................................... 49

Table 12: Synthesis matrix of scenarios ................................................................................. 51

Table A1: Soybean cultivated area (in hectare) ...................................................................... 65

Table A2: Effective bovine herd (head) .................................................................................. 67

Table A3: Bovine Herd Density (head/km2) ........................................................................... 68

Table A4: Quantity of log produced (m3) ............................................................................... 69

Table A5: Land prices (R$/ha) by types of land ..................................................................... 70

Table A6: Land price growth, by types of land ...................................................................... 71

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�. Introduct�on

In 2003, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) launched “Capacity Building for Integrated Assessment and Planning for Sustainable Development”. The purpose of this initiative was to enhance the capacity of developing countries and countries in transition towards a market economy, and to implement integrated assessment and planning for sustainable development with a focus on aspects such as agriculture, poverty alleviation, environmental management and promotion of sustainable trade.

The primary methodology instrument was Integrated Assessment and Planning (IAP). The IAP tool proposes ex ante/ex post intermediate evaluations of a planning process with a view to improve planning and later monitoring. The ultimate objective was to facilitate inter-connections of social, environmental, and economic levels in the planning process and in reviews of major domestic industries, thus facilitating poverty alleviation and sustainable trade.

The IAP approach was developed by UNEP in accordance with the Millennium Development Goals. Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Kenya, Lebanon, Russia, Tanzania, and Uganda were some of the countries to have developed studies under this initiative.

The central assessment theme for Brazil was the BR-163 sustainable development plan, in response to a demand raised by the Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG) for the Plan to integrate governmental activities into economic development of the highway-influenced areas, between the cities of Cuiabá (state of Mato Grosso) and Santarém (state of Pará).

Since this is a project that integrates transversally environmental, social and economic issues, the BR-163 Plan also considered the interests of the agribusiness sector and the governors of the States of Mato Grosso and Pará. The key issue was to make infrastructure investments that were not at the expense of social discontent (violence and poverty) and environmental damages (deforestation). Any conflicts of interest should be mitigated by government programmes.

As the regional economies depend heavily on soybean crops, the project also assessed the mutually influencing effects of the soybean industry and the BR-163 Plan.

In October 2004, a national integrated assessment study began. This was based on information, data and surveys already available, covering both substantive aspects (economic dynamics, and social and environmental impacts) and process aspects of the BR-163 Plan. On the one hand, this study examined the interests and expectations of stakeholders using “mapping of actors”. On the other hand, for substantive analysis, the study drew on scenario-building techniques to assess key economic, social and environmental indicators.

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A political economy approach for the study of scenarios was used, considering primordially the vectors of economic dynamism and state capacity to develop and implement integrated public policies.

The study’s Final Assessment Workshop (held at Brasília on 20 April 2006) brought together segments of society who had raised key issues when the project started, and this clearly reflects political legitimacy and methodological usefulness of integrated assessment as a strategic decision-making process. Indeed, project outcomes contributed to the Brazilian government’s actions since it was possible now to perform an assessment of the environmental, social and economic dynamics. The recommended policies are being taken into consideration in BR-163 Plan’s feasibility process.

1.1 Overview of the Brazilian AmazonThe Amazon Biome can be found in nine South American countries, covering a total area of 6.4 million km². Brazil is home to 63 per cent of this, which is equivalent to a bit more than 4 million km². To better inform public policies related to the Amazon Biome, a macro region called “Amazônia Legal” (Legal Amazon) was demarcated in Brazil. This region covers approximately 5 million km² (which corresponds to 59 per cent of the Brazilian territory), and it includes: the states of Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, and Tocantins in the north; the state of Mato Grosso; a part of Maranhão; and a small portion of Goiás.

In 2000, the population in the Legal Amazon reached 21 million inhabitants (12 per cent of the entire Brazilian population), and demographic density in the region was slightly above 3 inhabitants per km². Demographic growth was significant over the past few years since the number of inhabitants in the region jumped from 8.2 million in 1970 to 17 million in 1991.

In 2002, the Legal Amazon’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at R$82 billion (US$27.5 billion) and, at that time, that accounted for 6.1 per cent of the national GDP. In 2002, the GDP per inhabitant in the Legal Amazon was equal to R$7,400 (US$2,100), and the average GDP per inhabitant for the whole nation was R$12,900 (US$3,650). In 2000, the working population in the Legal Amazon was 8.5 million or 42 per cent of the total population in the Amazon.

Forests (dense, open and seasonal forests) cover 64 per cent of the Legal Amazon. Non forest vegetation, comprised of cerrados, natural fields and campinaranas, cover another 22 per cent of the region. The Legal Amazon originally held 73 per cent of forest cover. By 1994, deforestation had affected 9 per cent of the region. By 2004, approximately 14 per cent of the region had been destroyed. This year, deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon was the second highest ever, affecting 27,200 km². The highest deforestation rate ever was reported in 1995 (29,100 km²).

About 24 per cent of the Amazon is comprised of private areas. Another 33 per cent are legally protected areas - Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands. Approximately 10 per cent can be considered special purpose areas, such military lands, environmental protection areas (EPAs), and rural settlements. Another 33 per cent of the Legal Amazon remain as vacant lands or private lands under dispute. The majority of legally protected areas in the Amazon (63 per cent) are Indigenous Lands, whereas Sustainable Use Conservation Units account for 6.3 per cent, and Integral Protection Units total 5.5 per cent. Special areas (10 per cent of the Amazon) include rural settlements (5.3 per cent) and EPAs (3.7 per cent).

The new geography in the Amazon is not just a consequence of globalization. It is a result of an intense process that has been producing profound structural changes since the late 20th century (Becker, 2004). This transformation has two fundamental features. On the one hand, at global level, the Amazon has now become a new frontier of natural capital whose territorial appropriation is supported by scientific and technological

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use of nature and, on the other hand, at domestic level, it is no longer the major frontier of economic and population expansion, thus exhausting the old standard of the Amazon as a mobile forest, but rather has become an area with significant potential for development as well.

Recent regional history has brought significant changes to the pattern of settlement based on river transportation. The pattern of territorial integration (both terrestrial and fluvial) kept a peculiar linearity by following the river, along which investments (both public and private) and demographic flows have come to be concentrated, thus creating a specific regional macro zone system. Man-induced pressures of deforestation and burns, and the serious conflicts over land do not exist 100 kilometers from these belts of river or roads.

Intensification of roads is especially pronounced east of the states of Pará, Maranhão, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, and Rondônia, making up a great arc of settlement along the forest rim and a 3,000-5,000 km wide belt. This great arc of settlement was the main expansion area of territorial settlement in the Amazon. For decades, economic expansion depended on timber exploitation-deforestation-burns-cattle raising to open new spaces, which explains the name Arc of Fire.

The mobile frontier of the Amazon may have given way to individual fronts of expansion (Becker, 2004), which are mainly located in the following areas: (a) Cuiabá-Santarém road and in Mato Grosso’s municipalities of Alta Floresta, Guarantã do Norte, Castanheiro, and Aripuanã; (b) Porto Velho-Manaus road; (c) Santarém-Itaituba-Altamira-Almerim área; (d) state of Pará’s municipality of São Félix do Xingu; and (e) state of Rondônia’s municipality of Buritis. The overall state of deforestation, after 2000, tends to be concentrated on already deforested border areas, and recent data seems to indicate new trends and processes that make the current picture more complex. Intensification of expansion fronts is driven primarily by soybean competitiveness and the expected installation of new transport axes. These recent expansion fronts are of a different type than the original fronts in the 1960s and 1970s, since they no longer revolve around a policy of incentives by the Government, but depend on the resources of economic actors primarily based in Cuiabá and Belém (Becker, 2004).

Introduct�on

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�. State plann�ng processes

In the Amazon, several planning processes are underway, and some plans end up overlapping due to the way such processes are started off. The most overarching, however, is the Pluriannual Plan (PPA), under which all government investment programmes for development purposes are grouped. It is financed with funds from the Treasury, including investments made by states and municipalities. In addition to the PPA, decisions to start a regional or thematic planning process are made in order to channel public or private investments into strategic areas. In the case of the Amazon region, some of these processes overlap spatially, though they have different overall objectives, including:

1. Sustainable Amazon Programme2. Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon3. Sustainable Regional Development Plan for the area under the influence of the BR-163 Cuiabá-Santarém

Road – BR-163 Plan.

Brazil is a federal country and its policies are decentralized. States and municipalities have relative autonomy to pursue their public policies, including those related to land use and natural resource planning. This is why the implementation of integrated policies, such as recommended assessment processes, can be challenging.

2.1 The Pluriannual PlanThe Pluriannual Plan (PPA) is a constitutional provision that delegates to the Federal Government the medium-term planning of fundamental issues, such as encouragement to production, job creation, reduction of regional inequalities, better infrastructure, technological and scientific development, human development and social inclusion as income distribution is perfected. The Government must submit the PPA to the parliament by the end of August in the first year of administration.

Through this broad strategy and in line with a medium term planning process, PPA is a reference for other processes. This is the case of the Sustainable Amazon Programme, where the inputs for planning are derived from the guidelines and investments contained in the PPA.

The 2004-2007 Plan is committed to macroeconomic stability preservation. It estimates economic growth rate at above 4 per cent per year and recognizes that investment levels in infrastructure over the past few years have had an adverse effect on Brazil’s competitiveness, in particular from high transportation costs. The conclusion is that substantial investments are necessary to expand and recover the transport network in order to support long term economic growth.

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2.2 The Sustainable Amazon PlanThe Sustainable Amazon Plan (PAS) is a host of guidelines developed by the Federal Government in collaboration with the states in the region. The PAS is a reference document for the Amazon. It is also innovative, since it is the first initiative to outline actions of several Ministries in a shared development strategy for Amazon, and since it seeks interaction between federal and state levels of government.

It proposes to integrate public policy instruments with a view to implementing a new development model based on five thematic areas:

• Environmental management and land use planning• Innovation and competitiveness-based sustainable production• Social inclusion and citizenship• Development-oriented infrastructure• New financing standard.

The PAS is not in itself an action plan. Rather, it is a framework of theories, directives and a set of strategies and action lines for policies and planning processes, with consideration for societal participation in the discussion and elaboration of projects. It encompasses the Legal Amazon, and its directives are a reference for the BR-163 Plan.

2.3 Permanent Inter-ministerial WorkgroupAs the deforestation growth rate went up by 40 per cent during the 2001-2002 period (INPE, 2004), the Federal Government decided to create a committee to look into reducing deforestation rates in the Amazon while ensuring sustainability and quality of life for the population. In view of this challenge, a Presidential Decree of 7 March 2003 established a Permanent Inter-ministerial Workgroup (GPTI) that would propose measures and coordinate actions for the reduction of deforestation rates through the following instruments:

• Land use planning and legalization of land tenure in the municipalities in the Arc of Deforestation• Fiscal and credit incentives to expand economic efficiency and sustainability of areas already

deforested• Procedures for environmentally sustainable infrastructure works• Job and income generation in activities with rehabilitation of degraded areas• Addition of open and abandoned areas to the production chain, and management of forest areas• Integrated performance of federal agencies responsible for monitoring and control of illegal activities in

the Arc of Deforestation• Others that may be considered relevant.

The GPTI is coordinated by the Office of the Chief of Staff, and is comprised of 11 Ministries, including those in charge of Agriculture, Defense, Science and Technology, Agrarian Development, National Integration, the Environment, Mines and Energy, Justice, Transportation, and Labour. However, besides institutional constraints, budget restrictions and limited reach of official economic services and instruments lessen the effect of policies, even when they are well formulated.

2.4 The BR-163 Plan To manage the area of influence of BR-163 highway, the Brazilian Government has begun to harmonize interests into integrated actions that can mitigate socio-environmental impacts due to road paving. Without a consistent plan, paving “could exacerbate undesirable social and environmental impacts in its influence area” (PAS, 2006).

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State plann�ng processes

The BR-163 Plan is “the first experience of formulation of an operational plan for an area in Legal Amazon based on PAS general directives” (PAS, 2006). The area of influence crosses 73 municipalities (28 in Pará state, 39 in Mato Grosso state and 6 in Amazonas state) and will be 1,232,000 km² in total area, or 14.7 per cent of total territory. Hence the highway, in its Cuiabá-Santarém segment, crosses “one of the most important regions in Amazon, from the point of view of economic potential, biological diversity, natural wealth and cultural and ethnic diversity” (BRASIL, 2005).

The new highway will benefit Mato Grosso, the largest soybean grower and exporter in the country, but will also be strategic as it will reduce transport costs for transport to the ports of Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP). Electronic products from Zona Franca de Manaus, meat, timber, and agro-forestall products, in addition to soybeans, will be the main cargo.

The area of influence covers a large mosaic, including pristine areas and deforested areas. The mere expectation of concluding the paving of this BR-163 road segment has been contributing to accelerated processes of disordered land occupation and predatory exploitation of natural resources (BRASIL, 2005).

2.4.1 BR-163 Plan creationThe BR-163 Plan is under the responsibility of an Inter-ministerial Working Group (IWG), decreed by a President’s Act on 15 May 2004. It is coordinated by the Presidency’s “Casa Civil” and comprises of 21 organizations from the Ministries and Presidency’s “Casa Civil” and Secretariats. It has created four thematic working groups (WGs), made up of experts from Ministries and public organisations.

In the Plan building process, 15 city consultations were carried out in the region, (seven cities in the first round and eight cities in the second round), aiming to collect suggestions from the different social groups likely to be interested, such as state governments, municipalities, entrepreneurs and workers representative entities, civil society forums, etc. The Plan’s strategy towards sustainable regional development is to tackle poorly synergetic relationships among the stock of natural resources, to raise job and income creation, and to improve governance in the Amazon, the so-called “frontier economy”. The objective is to bring about a more balanced scenario, such as sustainable exploration of natural resources so as to generate income and employment and to foster increasing levels of governance.

The assumption here is that large scale works, such as the paving of a highway of this size, triggers economic growth in the region, but also causes conflicts that should be arbitrated by the State by facilitating new production systems, in addition to upholding the rights of indigenous populations and other traditional populations. Land use planning has prompted planners to demarcate new conservation units, adopt a timber certification system, and to create a thriving production sector based on bio-prospecting and the bio-industry.

2.4.2 Action strategies There are four strategic axes for investment policies and strengthening governmental institutions. They are:

1. Land use planning and environmental management, which include consolidation of occupied areas on a sustainable basis; sustainable use and protection of forests; land tenure legalization; land development at local and micro-regional level; economic and ecological zoning; environmental monitoring and control; and improving urban centres.

2. Encouragement to productive activities. The planners assumed that it was possible to strike a balance between development-oriented actions and forest conservation actions. Encouragement policies are


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focused on the use of credit instruments, technical assistance, and scientific and technological research. Policies include: local productive chains and productive arrangements (APL); strengthening of family-based production; sustainable use of forests; solidarity economy; ecological tourism; development promotion instruments.

3. Development-oriented infrastructure, with various investments to improve the transportation system, integrate a multi-modal system, evaluate the network of informal roads and integrate transportation on waterways; invest in the energy system, with incentives to biomass energy production; improve communications systems; and improve storage systems.

4. Social inclusion and citizenship. The social inclusion strategy intends to disseminate universal policies regarding education, health and public security; accelerate the fight against poverty; community development, etc. Another objective is to prevent poor rural populations from being chased away from their territories.

2.4.3 IAG analysis of the BR-163 PlanEven as the BR-163 Plan was being drawn up, analysis and criticisms on the proposition were published from 2004. One of these was made by the International Advisory Group (IAG), a group of experts that annually evaluates the results of the pilot programme PPG7 to conserve the Brazilian rainforest.

The highlights of the IAG assessment on BR-164 Plan are as follows:

• Disparity exists between the slow pace of governmental initiatives and the acceleration of the land occupation process. The lack of trust in the capacity of the State to act may result in civil disobedience.

• Lack of consensus to make the PAS viable and problems in implementing initiatives to prevent and control deforestation in the Legal Amazon are continuing.

• Lack of clear indications on how to connect the licensing procedure of the BR-163 Highway and the BR-163 Sustainable Plan.

• Important inputs and capital from PPG7 should offer an opportunity to experiment with newer and more advanced ideas than the BR-163 Plan.

• Given the worsening land relations in the area of influence, proposed initiatives to address this issue would be insufficient. IAG suggested measures to give priority to tax collection and public land registration, which would involve the Federal Public Property Secretariat. In addition, they suggested: (a) the legalization of land possessions of up to 100 hectares; and (b) legalization of land possessions of over 100 ha that do not superimpose in the range of up to 30km.

• Amazon electric power portfolio is still being assembled from lobbying by interest groups, instead of being selected from the Pluriannual Plan.

• The need exists to recognize the value of environmental services in the Amazon, with the accelerated generation of knowledge chains that become productive chains, such as bio-industry. The IAG supported a scientific and technological revolution for the Amazon, including the area under the scope of the BR-163 highway.

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2.4.4 Stakeholders in the BR-163 PlanTwo rounds of public consultations were held to identify the demands and expectations of local participants of the Plan. The first round of consultations was held in July 2004 in Santarém, (2 and 3 July), Altamira (5 and 6 July), Novo Progresso (8 and 9 July), Guarantã do Norte (12 and 13 July), Sorriso (15 and 16 July), and Apuí (19 and 20 July). On 27 July, a public consultation was held in Brasilia on the request of NGOs and civil society. The second round of public consultations was held in April and May 2005. In this round the most remarkable absence was the indigenous populations, who did not attend since it was difficult for them to reach the meeting venues and because the planners had promised an exclusive round of meetings for them, but which was not held.

The history of land occupation in the area shows that indigenous populations are major losers from land appropriation processes. Up until the 1940s, the territories in the west of Pará and mid-north of Mato Grosso had significant indigenous presence. In Pará, the main indigenous peoples living in the region were the Panará, Kayapó, Kube-Kra-Noti, Yuruayá, Kuruáya, Sipayá, Munduruku, Guahuara, Arara, Yuruna, Sipáy, and Maué. And in Mato Grosso the main indigenous peoples living in the region were the Bororo, Bakairi, Kayabi, Suiá, Manitsauá, and Panará (Kren-Akarore).

Grabbing of indigenous lands was explicitly a component of the land occupation process in the north of Mato Grosso, which received support from agricultural projects encouraged and funded by the Federal Government. Indigenous lands were violently grabbed by speculators based on forged documents attesting that they were not Indians or even squatters (Oliveira, 2005). As a result, gigantic rural properties in the region were established.

For the second round of consultations, one hundred representatives were interviewed. These people lived in 22 towns in the BR-163 area of influence, and were associated with 75 institutions, organizations and/or social movements in the region. The survey has clearly mapped the response of these representatives on the highway paving:

• 85 per cent of the interviewed believed that BR-163 would be paved in a period between five and ten years.

• 25 per cent believed that items provided for in the Plan would be implemented together with the highway laying.

• Slightly over half expected that only 50 per cent of the initiatives of the Plan will be implemented within five to ten years. The rest thought that over 50 per cent of the initiatives would be implemented.

• 10 per cent of the interviewees thought the paving should only take place with the full implementation of the initiatives provided for in the Plan. The majority of these belong to civil society.

The survey has clearly evidenced some disbelief of the interviewees. Although there is a majority of opinion that favoured the participation process currently promoted, a mix of trust and disbelief prevailed over future governmental policy.

On the results of the implementation of the BR-163 Plan, expectations in general were highly positive. Those who lived in the towns and cities located along the highway in particular gave more importance to economic expansion that the environmental features included in the Plan. The general conclusions are:


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• No one was against the paving. Some favoured it without conditions. Some favoured it with reservations.

• Most of the reservations were presented by the civil society group.

• Expectations linked highway paving with expected benefits from best distribution of production (30 per cent of interviewed), facilitated access to public services (17 per cent) and increased job opportunities (13 per cent).

• Local governments and the private sector had least expectations of problems and proposed the least solutions.

• Migration, the increase of violence and crime, environmental devastation, and the difficulties of access to land were the issues most frequently seen as important ones.

• Problem perception varied according to representatives evaluated. Environmental issues are most frequently mentioned by civil society and those connected with the Federal and State Governments.

• NGOs most frequently raised contentions raised against state and local governments, loggers, urban entrepreneurs and urban workers. The most explicit disputes were related to foreign NGOs. The frequency with which the disputes with the Federal Government were mentioned by large-sized farmers and also by urban and rural workers was also significant.

• The Federal Government was often mentioned as the actor from whom the most effective participation in the region was expected. However, INCRA and IBAMA were often described as inoperative, ineffective, bureaucratic and corrupt.

• Approximately half of the actors surveyed stated that the process would improve if decision-makers listened to the people and institutions that most contributed to it and if it bridged the uncertainties in the hearings carried out so far. The most frequently mentioned gaps were the concerns of the native communities, the rural workers and the small-business owners.

2.5 IAP’s contribution The main contribution of the IAP project lies in offering the planners a set of political recommendations, prepared through integrated assessment of the Plan and specific methods used to evaluate planning procedures. The methods consist of studying its substantial and procedural aspects, and using environmental, social and economic indicators appropriate to key issues in the understanding of the regional processes. Potential scenarios are then built.

Construction of the three scenarios initially proposed by UNEP’s experts – (a) without the Plan, (b) with emergency investments, and (c) with structural investments – was slightly changed to include the economic dynamism criterion. Social and environmental indicators have proved sensitive to it. The fall in the deforestation rate for example was partly linked to the demand crisis in the soybean sector. Therefore, economic dynamism, which is called level of market activity (LMA) here, is considered a determining factor in the construction of scenarios.

The possible scenarios are discussed at length in Chapter 4 but a summarized model is shown in Table 1.

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Level of Market Activity (LMA) Weak Strong Public Policy Non-strengthened Scenario 1 – Econom�c stagnat�on / Scenario 3 – Econom�c growth / Capacity Soc�al and env�ronmental �nequal�ty Soc�al and env�ronmental and degradat�on �nequal�ty and degradat�on Strengthened Scenario 2 – Endogenous Scenario 4 – Susta�nable development / Soc�al and development / Soc�al and env�ronmental governance env�ronmental d�str�but�onal governance

Table 1: Scenario construction summary for IAP

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�. Econom�c uses of land �n the BR-�� reg�on

The Amazon is continually going through a process of deforestation and reduction of its forest cover. Year after year, this is shown by the deforestation data released by the National Space Research Institute (INPE). As a result of expansion of cattle raising activities, urbanization, and infrastructure projects, settlement in forested areas has spiralled out of control and suffers predatory effects. Going north from Mato Grosso and going west from the eastern area of Pará, one can see a space of interweaving, disorganized settlements and increasing deforestation. This is moving steadily towards otherwise pristine areas as of now.

3.1 BR-163 area of influenceThe area of influence of BR-163 highway attracts special importance and attention in environmental, social, economic, and political terms. Connecting the city of Cuiabá, in the center of Mato Grosso state, to the city of Santarém, in Pará on the bank of the Amazon River, the BR-163 Highway is located on the deforestation frontier. It will become the distribution channel for soybean production, linking the cultivation-heavy north of Mato Grosso to the Port of Santarém, from where ships go straight to international consumer markets in the northern hemisphere.

With its sheer potential in social and environmental impacts, and positive economic effects for the development and distribution of soybean production, the paving project of BR-163 is, therefore, a matter of great conflict and debate.

The most significant result to date has been appreciation of land prices and widespread speculative behaviours throughout the territory. Savings of US$40 per ton of soybean in transportation costs, for up to 11 million tons annually, explains why BR-163 is so lucrative for businesses. From 1998 to 2004, land prices in the area of Pará jumped from an average R$7,000 per hectare to R$3,000. The “land” business for grain producers in the Brazilian Mid-West has become very profitable, since land in the state of Mato Grosso has sold a hectare for R$10,000. Land appropriation was generally followed by quick conversion into cropping, especially with the high prices of agricultural commodities. Large numbers of cattle raisers also indulged in speculative behavior, and as a result cattle raising activities have spread out from the north of the state of Mato Grosso to the state of Pará since the early 1990s. The timber industry has also intensified its structural migrating movement by transferring timber mills from Mato Grosso to Pará, and the speculative wave to build stocks of raw materials for the highway has also had an impact.

The three industries together – timber, cattle raising and agribusiness – are responsible for the increased deforestation rates and uncontrolled occupation of forests.

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For the purpose of the integrated assessment under this study, the scope of analysis has been confined to the three main Meso-regions (MR) and their sub-areas (SA): (a) The north Meso-region covering the northwest of the state of Pará and east of the state of Amazonas; (b) the central Meso-region covering the central area and southwest of Pará, southeast of Amazonas and a part of the far north of the state of Mato Grosso; and (b) the south Meso-region covering the central and northern portion of Mato Grosso (see Figure 1 and Table 1).

Figure 1: Scope of BR-163 Highway

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Econom�c uses of land �n the BR-�� reg�on

3.2 The soybean businessAs a result of its colonial history, Brazil’s agricultural production has been oriented towards European markets throughout its history. Therefore, the structure of the Brazilian agrarian universe has always reflected, and still reflects, the primary objective of producing large volumes for the export market (Küster & Marti, 2004). As the country’s vast territory gives it a major agrarian edge, agribusiness has established itself as the flagship industry of Brazil’s export market. Agribusiness accounts for 33 per cent of GDP and employs 37 per cent of the country’s working population (17.7 million rural workers). In 2003, exports of agricultural products generated sales of US$36 billion, with a trade balance surplus of US$25.8 billion. The country’s performance as an agro-exporting power has prompted the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) to anticipate that Brazil will be the world’s largest food producer in the next decade.

Two sectors in the Brazilian agribusiness industry stand out for the increasing investments they have been receiving: soybean production and cattle raising. Together, the growth of soybean and animal products in exports was 135.8 per cent from 2003 to 2004. Soybean was the crop with the most significant growth rate over the past twenty years, and this expansion can be explained by the fact that soybeans go towards both animal and plant product chains in various industries (such as poultry and cattle rearing, aquaculture, agriculture, production of oils and human foods). Furthermore, the global trend towards urban growth has implications for the population’s eating habits, who consume industrialized products at an increasing rate, including soybeans as a major item. The Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG) estimates that the production of grains in Brazil will increase 50 per cent by 2010.

Six factors contribute to the expanding trend of the soybean sector in Brazil, especially in the state of Mato Grosso (Alencar et. al., 2004): (a) the outbreak of the “mad cow” disease in Europe, resulting in a ban on the use of animal remains as a source of protein; (b) China’s economic development has boosted consumption of pork and chicken, which in turn has raised the demand for soybeans for fodder production; (c) reduced transportation costs of soybeans produced in the north of Mato Grosso by transport on the Madeira River; (d) soybean productivity gains in the cerrado vegetation and development of soybean varieties that are adapted to the climate in the Amazon; (e) construction of major corporate storage facilities by Cargill, Maggi, Bunge and ADM); and (f) low soybean production in the USA in 2003, which augmented international demand for this commodity. The combination of these factors fostered an increase in soybean crops in Brazil to the point that the country will supplant the USA and become the largest grain producer in the world.

Meso-region Sub-area Total area (km²) % of area of % by Meso- influence regionCentral Meso-reg�on Méd�o X�ngu �4.�4� �.� ��.� Central Transamazôn�ca Road ��.�� .� ��.� Vale do Jamanx�m ��.��0 ��.� ��. Total 482,082 39.1 100.0 North Meso-reg�on Lower Tapajós ��,�� .� �.� R�ght bank of the Amazon r�ver ��,��4 �.� ��.0 Left bank of the Amazon r�ver ��4,�� .� ��.� L and R banks of the Amazon r�ver ��4,�� .� ��.� Eastern Transamazôn�ca Road ��,�04 �.4 ��.� Total 500,018 40.6 100.0 South Meso-reg�on M�d-North of Mato Grosso ��,�� .� ��.� Far North of Mato Grosso �4,��4 �.� ��.� Total 250,807 20.3 100.0 Grand Total 1,232,907 100.0 -

Table 2: BR-163 area of influence by Meso-regions and Sub-areas

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Indeed, during the 1991-2003 period, Brazil increased its share of the world soybean market by 26.6 million tons (from 14.9 to 51.5 million tons). During this period, Brazil accounted for 42.6 per cent of the global soybean production growth. The USA accounted for 13.6 per cent during the same period, and the figure for Argentina was 27.9 per cent. These data indicate that South America is the prime region for the expansion of soybean production, and in particular Brazil. Brazil, the USA and Argentina met 90 per cent of the total demand in 2003 (31 per cent supplied by Brazil, 29 per cent by the USA, and 28 per cent by Argentina). Figure 2 shows the growth in soybean production in Brazil.

Figure 2: Soybean production in Brazil 1952-2005

Source: Oliveira 2005, p. 155

If the upward trend of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina holds up, the two countries will account for the most significant expansion in soybean areas and production volume over the next fifteen years, according to a survey by the WWF called Managing the Soy Boom: Two Scenarios of Soil Production Expansion in South America (Droos, 2004). According to the forecast, the area occupied by soybean production in Brazil will jump from 21 million ha in 2004 to 31 million ha by 2020, or a 50 per cent growth of planted areas.

The supply to major global soybean consumers (USA, Europe and countries with an expanding economy, such as India and China) relies on this growth trend in Brazil. Therefore, paving the BR-163 Road is a key infrastructure initiative that will benefit not only local populations and soybean growers, but also industrial and trade food production chains around the world. The main barrier to soybean expansion in Mato Grosso (see below) is the high distribution cost, and logically the solution is the paving of the highway. Once this has been achieved, Brazil can easily become the world’s largest soybean producer, which will strengthen the country’s economic and political position at international level. Hence, international pressures can and does add to domestic political pressures.

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3.2.1 Soybean growing by regionHistorically, the expansion in areas covered by soybean crops in Brazil started in the south, the primary soybean producing regions until the late 1990s. In the 1970s, soybean started a progressive march towards the “cerrado” in Brazilian mid-west. Since then, due to intense technological development to control cerrado’s soil conditions and to breed new adapted varieties, soybean has found extremely favourable climatic and topographic conditions for its development. This and high international demand in the 1990s brought a deep land conversion process along cerrado and in the direction of Amazon forest.

During the first decade of the 21st century, the soybean frontier shifted to the Mid-West, Southeast and Northeast regions, with high growth rates. In the North region, soybean crops are on the rise in the state of Tocantins, but at a considerably lower rate. In the Mid-West region, the state of Mato Grosso stands out as the top national producer over the past five years. From 1999 to 2004, the area devoted to soybean crops in the state posted an 84 per cent increase. Figure 3 shows the main production areas in Brazil. Soybean productivity rates in Brazil (2.8-3 tons/ha) have in fact been higher than in the USA (2.6 tons/ha; Oliveira, 2005).

Figure 3: Area covered with soybean crops in Brazil 2003

Source: CONAB (modified by Dros, 2004)

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South Meso-RegionThe massive presence of soybean growing in the north of Mato Grosso is clearly in the BR-163 area of influence. It can be seen (see Figure 4) that the BR-163 will be especially important to the South Meso-Region for soybean growing, since production is mainly concentrated in the north of Mato Grosso.

Figure 4: Soybean growing in BR-163 area of influence 1990-2004

Soybean expansion analysis in the 1990s showed that there was a 150 per cent increase during a ten-year period in the state of Mato Grosso, and a 40 per cent increase at national level (Oliveira, 2005), the. Productivity growth for the same period, however, was 225 per cent for Mato Grosso and 110 per cent for the country as a whole. By the end of the 1990s, when the national soybean productivity average stood at 2,370 kg/ha, the average in Mato Grosso was 3,020 kg/ha. The large area covered by soybean crops in Mato Grosso, plus the high productivity rates achieved, made it possible for Mato Grosso to become the leading soybean producer in the country, with 20.7 per cent of its area devoted to soybeans. Among municipalities in the state, Sorriso stood out with 11.6 per cent of the state’s production and 2.3 per cent of national production.

North Meso-RegionIt is important to point out that soybeans, which now emerge as the fourth most important crop in the North Meso-region, was virtually non-existent in that area in the late 1990s. Soybean crops during the 2001-2002 season covered only 350 hectares (200 ha in Santarém and 150 ha in Belterra). Although a significant portion of the North Meso-region has not yet been occupied by soybean crops, its port facilities show important changes in transportation infrastructure, which are indications of potential social and economic changes, and emergence of private investments in infrastructure prompted by competition for logistical advantages among major players in commodities.

3.2.2 Modern production and BR-163Soybean production is clearly undertaken by major conglomerates, and capital tends to be concentrated, both at international level and in the case of Brazil.

Soybean crop areas (ha) - 1990 - 2004Soybean crop areas (ha) - 1990 - 2004

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From the 1990s, there was a dramatic change in the Brazilian soybean industry as a result of a centralization process. The major Brazilian companies sold off their business units as a means of facing financing challenges or as a long term strategy. As a result, the soybean agribusiness was concentrated in four major corporations well-established in Brazil: Cargill, Archer-Daniels Midland, Bunge & Born, and Louis Dreyfus/Coinbra. These corporations operate in the food market in general and their portfolio ranges from commodities to special products. They have a combined share of 44 per cent of the soybean crushing capacity in Brazil. The national companies are ranked second in terms of industrial capacity, including Caramuru, a Maggi, and the cooperative Comigo, which has a smaller scale of production. The centralizing trend seems to be here to stay, and it is reinforced by aggressive strategies for corporate take-over by the four large conglomerates. Centralization generates considerable gains of scale, which boosts the competitiveness of these companies. The four conglomerates had initially made investments in the central and south regions of the country, but in the 1990s they started to invest in the acquisition of companies in the Mid-West region, preferably those with well-established markets and located in areas with installed logistical and transportation infrastructures.

These projects make it possible for soybean to be planted in over 20 million hectares in the central and north areas of Brazil, and they attract processing companies to these areas. Transportation infrastructure is a key factor for the decision-making processes of soybean companies (Castro, 2005). They prefer to establish grain crushing units in locations that are close to production sites in order to slash transportation costs. Companies say they rely on multi-modal transportation systems (waterways, railways, roads and ports) for the outflow of their production. In the case of soybeans grown in the central and north areas of the country, producers prefer the following distribution zones: BR-230 Road; Tietê-Paraná waterways, Madeira waterways, Tocantins-Araguaia waterways; and the ports of Paranaguá, Santos, Itaqui/Ponta Madeira, Itacoatiara (Amazonas), and Santarém (Pará).

The paving of the BR-163 Highway will bring about new changes to the landscape. Such changes will first affect the state of Mato Grosso (south and central Meso-regions) by fostering its economic and urban life, as well as Santarém (in the north Meso-region) which shall be grown as a port and commercial center. Such changes shall promote the appearance of new regional urban centers. For example, the town of Sinop will earn the status of regional capital and will be the backbone of the urban network in the north of Mato Grosso and southeast of Pará. Cuiabá is likely to become a regional metropolis in the centre of a network of secondary urban centers, made up of Barra do Garça, Rondonópolis, Sinop, Cáceres and Tangará da Serra. These cities are currently in the process of being strengthened, and the process will be catalyzed as BR-163 is paved. Cargill is the company that has been making the most investments in the infrastructure associated with the paving of the BR-163 Road (Castro, 2005). It has built an export port in Santarém, and is waiting for the paving works to be complete before it can ship large quantities of soybeans to Asia and Europe. Cargill has also built grain warehouses in Sorriso and Lucas do Rio Verde. Other companies investing in the area are Bunge, Maggi and Coimbra. The latter has set up a plant in the municipality of Alto Araguaia (Mato Grosso state).

The Brazilian cerrado is being rapidly destroyed as the soybean frontier encroaches through medium- and large-sized properties, with large stretches cleared in short periods of time. This expansion, however, will basically take place in areas already cleared and covered with pastures, which could lead to the conclusion that the soybean expansion does not contribute to the removal of forest cover. Nevertheless, analyses of agricultural frontier expansion in the Amazon show that soybean, pastures, land grabbing, and logging all belong to the same process. Hence, it might be possible to affirm that, by taking over pasture areas, soybean cultivation pushes cattle raisers up north, to pristine forest areas. Although the soybean business is an indirect


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cause of deforestation, its relevance as a driving force of this process cannot be disputed (Alencar et al, 2004). This aspect is a central element for this research analysis, which shall be shown later.

3.3 The cattle businessIn Brazil, cattle raising has historically been an element of economic development in the mid-west and north regions. Expansion of economic activities into the “countryside” and progressive “occupation” of new frontier areas took place over the course of decades, and free-roaming cattle raising has proved to be a most cost-effective and viable business due to the large tracts of cheap land and large distances, as well as demand from the industrialized and consuming markets of the country.

From the 1990s, this historical profile started to change as high-tech and capital-intensive agriculture moved into the region, driven primarily by the soybean business. The share of cattle raising decreased in the mid-west regions, while it increased in the northern regions.

Although the relative share of cattle raising is increasing in the Central and North Meso-regions, it is the South Meso-region that disproportionately has the largest stocks of bovine cattle. Reported growth rates are also much higher than those of the Central and North Meso-regions, significantly widening the gap between cattle stocks in the South to all other Meso-regions (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Bovine stocks 1990-2003

Source: IBGE (SIDRA)

This substantial increase in the cattle business in the South Meso-region together with the huge expansion in areas covered by soybean crops is indicative of two phenomena. Firstly, continued deforestation is due to the need to open up new areas for cattle raising. Secondly, gradual development of the cattle business as a result of increased use of technology and capital intensity does make it possible to increase herds without necessarily expanding grazing areas.

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South Meso-RegionIn the South Meso-region breeding stocks have followed an upward trend and the most pronounced growth takes place in the Far North Sub-area. Until 1992, the breeding stocks in the Far North were smaller than those in the Mid-North Sub-area, and only grew comparatively greater from 1994. This trend opposes that of fast soybean growth in the Mid North, and little or no soybean growth in the Far North, which provides space for cattle business growth rates.

Central Meso-RegionFrom a historical perspective, the North Meso-region has had much bigger herds than the Central Meso-region, more than a threefold difference in fact until the year 2000. From 2000 on, the Central Meso-region has experienced dramatic growth rates, especially in the Médio Xingu Sub-area (São Félix). The herds in all other sub-areas in the Central Meso-region also report gradual growth rates, but such rates are not as significant.

North Meso-RegionIn the North Meso-region, sub-areas are breeding stocks at more stable populations or at less pronounced growth rates, exception being made of the Eastern Transamazônica Road Sub-area, which jumped from a modest 112,010 headcount in 1990 to 961,942 in 2003 (a 759 per cent increase). The herd density-total area ratio (not the grazing area) is also revealing (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: Density of cattle stocks (numbers/ha) 1990-2003

Source: IBGE (SIDRA) data


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3.4 The logging businessOne of the economic activities more commonly associated with frontier expansion and deforestation is the logging business. Before they are transformed into pastures and subsequently into farming areas, the deforested land tracts will first have their timber exploited.

Considering the frontier expansion process, one can expect that logging activities have been more intense in the Mid-West region to meet the demand of large consuming centers, especially in the southeast and south of the country. One would also expect, though to a lesser extent, more intense logging in the areas under more influence of the main economic and urban hubs in the North region. South Meso-region is indeed the one with the most intense logging business (see Figure 7) and logging here is more active than in the North and Central Meso-regions.

Figure 7: Quantity of wood logs 1990-2003


Interestingly, however, the South Meso-region had its peak between 1994 and 1996, and has since dropped to levels below the original level, with some recovery only after 2002. The data suggests that until 1995 logging activity grew hand in hand with growth in the soybean and cattle businesses, but the trend reversed afterwards. Some suggest that logging activity played a key role in expanding the deforestation frontier up to the 1990s but from then on, agricultural growth and cattle raising were the main drivers of new deforestation efforts.

North Meso-regionThe North Meso-region has very stable logging rates. The Eastern Transamazônica Road Sub-area is the one with the highest production rates in the region. Interestingly, this pattern of logging activity in the three Sub-areas is consistent with the observation that agricultural growth and cattle raising are the main drivers.

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Central Meso-regionThough not as significant in terms of logging, the Central Meso-region has seen fast growing logging, notably in the Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area which reported a fivefold increase in volumes produced in 2003 from 1998. In absolute terms, it was only second to the Sub-areas in the South Meso-region. One can expect that increased logging is expressed through a subsequent increase in the cattle herds and later through an increase in cropping areas. Indeed, previous data on cattle raising showed that during the same period, herding also went through a significant growth process in the region, especially in the Médio Xingu Sub-area.

3.5 Land use and priceThe share of private property in land use in the region varies greatly – it is quite low in Central Meso-region (5.28 per cent), moderately low in the North Meso-region (10.19 per cent) and high in the South Meso-region (51.65 per cent) with 72.37 per cent in the Far North Sub-area.

Across the entire region, use of “natural forests” (12.44 million hectares) is also significantly above use of “artificial pastures” (4.5 million), and both are conspicuously above the other uses. Figure 8 has land use by region in 1996.

Figure 8: Land use by region 1996

Interestingly, the South Meso-region, despite being the most diversified in terms of thriving economic activities (soybean, cattle and logging businesses), and despite being the one with the largest deforested areas (22.74 per cent of the total area, against 3.37 per cent of the Central Meso-region and 4.64 per cent of the North Meso-region), is the Meso-Region with by far the largest areas of natural forests on properties - 7.27 million hectares, against 3.36 million in the North Meso-region and 1.82 million in the Central Meso-region. This is due to the fact that the South Meso-region has the highest percentage share of properties to total area (51 per cent), an indication that woods and forests are located on private properties.

Properties area, according to the kind of land use (1996)Properties area, according to the kind of land use (1996)

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In the North Meso-region, land concentration is significantly higher than in the Central (16 per cent of total properties are large) and South (13 per cent). (See Figure 9).

Figure 9: Numbers and sizes of estates

In the North and South Meso-regions, most estates are concentrated in the 0-50 ha and 50-100 ha ranges. In the Central Meso-region, small properties do not represent the majority of estates, rather those in the 100-500 ha range. The largest properties above 1000 ha are mainly found in the South and Central Meso-regions.

Across the entire BR-163 area of influence, the Mid-North Sub-area in the South Meso-Region is the one that holds the largest tracts of properties, and most number of medium and large properties. Properties in the 100-500 ha and 500-1,000 ha are essentially concentrated in this sub-area. Properties above 1,000 ha are found here as well as the Vale do Jamanxim and Médio Xingu Sub-areas in the Central Meso-region.

Land price is a key variable in the frontier expansion process. The appreciation and speculation processes associated with land tenure are a key element in conversion of land. On the whole, the average land prices for the different modes of use (despite the scarcity of information about all municipalities and uses in the region) are considerably higher in the South Meso-region than in any of the others, while prices in the North Meso-region are higher than those in the Central Meso-region (see Figure 6).

Pristine lands – forests or cerrado – are less valued than pasture lands, which in turn are less valued than agriculture farming lands. However, land price according to use does not apply to rates at which land prices appreciate. Forests/cerrado areas are cheaper but their prices grow faster (see Figure 10).

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Figure 10: Average land prices by Meso-Region, R$/ha

Land Prices in 2003 (R$/ha)

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4. Econom�c, soc�al and env�ronmental �nd�cators

and l�nks4.1 Economic indicators

4.1.1 Gross domestic product (GDP)According to data gathered by IBGE, the highest GDP in absolute terms in 1996 was recorded by the North Meso-region (52 per cent of total GDP in the region). However, as of 1999 the highest GDP levels are found in the South Meso-region, an indication of the region’s higher economic development probably driven by the soybean business (see Table 3 and Figure 11).

Meso-region Sub-Area 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002

North Meso-reg�on Lower Tapajós 44.4��,�� .��4,�� 0�.040,�� .��4,�� 44.��,��

R�ght bank of Amazon r�ver ��.400,�� .�0�,4� ��.�0�,�� 0�.��,�� 0.�0�,0�

Left bank of Amazon r�ver ��.4��,�� .000.��,04 �.0��.�4�,4� �.0�4.404,�� .�44.��,�4

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Total 1.779.730,02 2.387.347,76 2.426.832,45 2.461.292,61 3.141.485,46

Central Meso-reg�on Méd�o X�ngu ��.��,�� 44.4��,�� .��4,40 ��.��0,�� .��,��

Central Transamazôn�ca Road ��.�4�,�0 ��.0��,�� .��4,�� 4.0��,00 ��0.��4,��

Vale do Jamanx�m ��.��4,�� .0��,�� 40�.�0�,�� 4�4.��,0� ��4.0��,��

Total 301.536,09 860.581,77 759.576,75 886.377,04 1.002.027,42

South Meso-reg�on M�d-North of Mato Grosso ��.0�0,�� .��4.4��,4� �.0�4.4�0,�� .0�4.4��,4� �.4��.�0�,��

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Total 1.343.226,40 2.539.242,10 2.899.349,90 2.816.104,30 3.319.719,31

Total 3.424.492,51 5.787.171,62 6.085.759,11 6.163.773,95 7.463.232,19


Table 3: Gross domestic product of municipalities

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Figure 11: GDP growth by Meso-regions 1996-2002

In all three Meso-regions, GDP has grown during the period, with localized drops at given times. The Central Meso-region, for example, saw a sharp drop of GDP for Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area in 1999-2000, which was why regional output declined 11.7 per cent during the same period. The highest growth rates for all three regions were reported for 2001-2002. GDP growth rates in the 1999-2002 period were also substantially lower than those for the 1996-1999 period.

4.1.2 Income profileIncome profile analysis in the region was based on municipal RAIS data for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2003 (2003 being the latest year available at the time of writing). Here income data refers to the annual average of the total income, measured in terms of minimum salaries and regarded as generated by workers formally employed in the various sectors.

The data shows that the North Meso-region had the highest income levels during the entire period considered, followed by the Central Meso-region. The South Meso-region was last. This was surprising since the South had a higher GDP rate and was comparatively more developed than the other two sub-regions.

Secondly, the analysis of share of the income generated by the various sectors shows that although agriculture was the most widespread sector in the area of influence, workers in agriculture had lower levels of formal income. This could be an indicator of labour informality of the sector. On the other hand, the service sector accounted for a significant share of income generation, at 52.91 per cent in 2003. Industrial sector accounted for 21.74 per cent, commerce for 15.65 per cent, agriculture for 7.96 per cent and civil construction by only 1.74 per cent.

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Econom�c, soc�al and env�ronmental �nd�cators and l�nks

The service sector is highly represented for the North and Central Meso-regions, and low for the South Meso-region, although the this Meso-region was the most developed. Also, a dramatic decline in income was reported in the 1990-1995 period in all three Meso-regions. An analysis shows that this sudden decline began in the service sector, and was more pronounced in the North and Central Meso-regions, where the sector was more dominant. See Figure 12 for 2003’s income distribution in the Meso-regions.

Figure 12: Income distribution by sector 2003

Source: RAIS

4.1.3 Employment profileThe employment profile analysis in the region was based on the municipal RAIS data for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2003 (2003 being the latest year available) on average annual number of formal jobs in the various sectors.

The first factor to be considered is the gap between the behavior of income and employment data. First of all, while the South Meso-Region has lagged behind the North and Central Meso-regions in terms of income generation, it stands out in employment opportunities. Across all sectors, employment generation was disproportionately higher than income generation, wages associated to formal jobs were lower.

Overall, the employment pattern over time matched income generation in the sense that both reported weak growth rates. Though employment generation did have occasional decreases, it did not show consistent decline like that experienced by income in the 1990-1995 period. Employment by sector also showed the importance of services in the north and agriculture and industry in the south when it came to income generation (see Figure 13).

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Figure 13: Employment by sector 2003

Source: RAIS

4.2 Social indicators

4.2.1 Human Development IndexThe following overall characteristics for Human Development Index (HDI) for the BR-163 area of influence 1991-2000 have been identified:

• In general, the entire region’s HDI is substantially low: 0.633 in 1991 and 0.716 in 2000.

• The gap across the regions is also meaningful - minimum value of 0.621 and maximum value of 0.824 in the year 2000.

• In all three Meso-regions and in all categories (education, longevity and income HDI), HDI was rising.

• In average terms, HDI was low in the North Meso-region, intermediate in the Central Meso-region, and higher in the South Meso-region.

• As an overall pattern, HDI in Education and Longevity were closely correlated (see Figures 14, 15 and 16).

Sector Distribution of number of employees (year 2003)Sector Distribution of number of employees (year 2003)

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Industry C�v�l Bu�ld�ng Trade Sev�ces Agr�culture

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Figure 15: Longevity HDI, 1991 and 2000


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Figure 16: Education HDI, 1991 and 2000


4.2.2 Poverty levelsThe poverty levels (monthly income per inhabitant under R$75.50) and indigence levels (monthly income per inhabitant under R$37.75) in the area of influence were alarming. In 1991, 50.34 per cent on average were poor, 25.56 per cent were indigent (extremely poor). By 2000, 44.85 per cent were still poor, and 24.94 per cent were indigent. Besides the high levels identified, poverty decline over the decade was hardly significant.

Poverty and indigence levels were substantially higher in the North Meso-region, lower in the South Meso-region, and intermediate in the Central Meso-region in both 1991 and 2000. Between 1991 and 2000, the decline in poverty was small in the North Meso-region, and more significant in the South Meso-region. No poverty improvement occurred for the Central Meso-region, but poverty and indigence levels rose instead (see Figures 17 and 18).

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Figure 17: Poverty levels


Figure 18: Indigence levels


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4.2.3 Healthcare

The state of healthcare has a close relationship to output and competitiveness of trade and other activities. The Sub-regions that had the most commercial, industrial and services activities overlap in terms of primary healthcare infrastructure. Full healthcare capabilities are concentrated in the more urban areas of Mato Grosso (21 per cent of diagnosis and therapies, and 12 per cent of hospitalization). In Pará, this capacity drops to 8 and 9 per cent respectively. And in the Amazonas the figures are 8 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. A worker who needs more complex medical service will likely have to go to the capital. In the case of Pará, the number of people seeking healthcare treatment in Teresina (state of Piauí) has been on the rise.The poorest regions are those that are most lacking in healthcare. Tropical diseases are a relevant indicator, with malaria one of the single most representative disease associated with deforestation and water resources allocation (see Table 4). In addition, it can be found in both urban and rural settings.

Table 4: Malaria cases in Meso-regions 1999-2004

Number of cases/year % Change

State 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999/2004

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Amapá ��.�4� ��.�� 4.4�� .�� .��0 �0.�� -��.�

Maranhão �4.�00 ��.�� .�0� ��.000 ��.0�� 4.0�� -�4.�

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Pará �4�.�� .�04 ��.�� 4�.0�� .�0� �0�.0�� -��.�

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Tocantins �.0�� .�40 �.�44 �.��0 �.�0� �4� -��.�

Legal Amazon 635.646 513.241 388.303 348.259 407.995 459.013 -27.8

Source: SISMAL, SIVEP – Malaria.

The data points to cases of malaria in the Amazon, where about 98 per cent of all cases are concentrated. Malaria in urban centers is still a major public health issue, especially in expanding cities like Manaus. The map in Figure 19 shows that the high risk regions overlap with those regions where deforestation pressures are more intense, including expanding urban areas like capitals and cities of all sizes in the region.

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Figure 19: Annual incidence of parasites in Brazil

Source: SISMAL, SIVEP – Malaria

However, according to the Ministry of Health’s Secretariat for Sanitary Surveillance, the Annual Incidence of Parasites (AIP) for malaria in the states located in the Amazon in 1999-2004 showed seven out of nine states having dramatic reductions in AIP. The most dramatic reductions took place in the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, Pará, and Roraima. This reduction was due to stepped-up control efforts by the Ministry of Health’s General Coordination of the National Malaria Control Programme (CGPNCM), and also due to lower indicators related to the disease’s replication environment in the regions.

4.2.4 Education The educational deficit is a widespread problem in the area of influence of BR-163. There are islands of excellence in those municipalities with high HDI ratings and more economic development. The municipalities with the worst educational indicators are also the ones with the worst local GDPs and highest poverty rates. Municipalities in the state of Pará had the highest percentage of illiterates aged 10 or older (125,000 individuals, who accounted for 16 per cent of all illiterates in the area of influence).

Some municipalities with percentages of uneducated population above 20 per cent (such as Anapu, Jacaraecanga, Porto de Moz, Senador José Porfírio, Trairão, and Uruará) are logging frontiers with a seasonal population. These are also municipalities with elevated poverty levels. More southern areas like


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Meso-region Sub-Area 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

North Meso-reg�on Lower Tapajós �.�� .4�4 �.�4� �.�� .��

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Left bank of Amazon r�ver �.�� .4�� .��0 ��.4�� .0�4

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Eastern Transamazôn�ca Road �.�� .��4 4.�� .�� .4�4

Total 23.204 31.833 30.218 37.474 35.824

Central Meso-reg�on Méd�o X�ngu �.�� .�� .�� .��4 ��.��

Central Transamazôn�ca Road �.�� 4.��4 4.�� .�� .�0�

Vale do Jamanx�m �.�0� �.4�� .�� .�� .4�0

Total 16.227 20.379 23.084 27.734 30.550

South Meso-reg�on M�d-North of Mato Grosso ��.00� ��.�� .��0 ��.�� 44.��4

Far North of Mato Grosso ��.0�0 �0.0�� .�0� ��.�� .��

Total 57.038 62.911 67.861 72.792 77.189

Total 96.469 115.123 121.162 138.000 143.563

Source: INPE

Sinop, Sorriso, Lucas do Rio Verde, and Nova Mutum municipalities report better rates (around 10 per cent) because of intra-regional migration taking place in these municipalities.

The survey conducted by ESALQ (2004) indicated a trend towards privatization of education in the more economically developed and populated Sub-regions. In Amazonas, only 2.2 per cent of schools provide secondary education. In Pará, a mere 3 per cent, but in Mato Grosso this jumps to 11.5 per cent. Data for the three states show that the investments in secondary education are short of the required levels.

4.3 Environmental impact indicatorsThe main indicators are found in deforested areas, since they reflect eco-systemic conditions or have a direct relationship.

4.3.1 Recent state of deforestation Deforestation data in Brazil are currently gathered and disseminated by INPE based on satellite-generated images. These showed an alarming situation of increasing deforestation rates. The following remarks are based on INPE’s data (see Table 5 and Figure 20).

Table 5: Deforested area 2000-2004

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Figure 20: Deforestation trends 2000-2004

The South Meso-region had the highest absolute levels of deforested area. Since the South Meso-region was the smallest in the area of influence (20.3 per cent of the total area), the deforested area becomes even more significant. Deforested areas in the Meso-region was 22.74 per cent of land area in 2000 and jumped to 30.78 per cent in 2004, against respectively 4.64 per cent and 7.16 per cent for the North Meso-region, and 3.37 per cent and 6.34 per cent for the Central Meso-region. Deforestation growth was highest 2000-2001 and has since fallen.

South Meso-regionIn the South Meso-region, the Mid-North Sub-area had the largest deforested area in absolute terms, and high and rising growth rates of deforestation. The Far North Sub-area however had the fastest growth of deforestation, since deforested areas jumped to 38.98 per cent from 30.75 per cent between 2000 and 2004.

Central Meso-regionThe Central Meso-region has the lowest total levels of deforested areas. Exception should be made of the Vale do Jamanxin Sub-area. It has significant deforestation levels, but showed acceleration in deforestation between 2002 and 2003. It was now the largest deforested area in the Meso-region. The highest percentage of deforestation area to total land size however was Médio Xingu. The Vale do Jamanxim Sub-area had fastest growing deforestation.

North Meso-regionThe North Meso-region has more total deforested areas than the Central Meso-region, but deforestation has fluctuating growth rates. The large portions of deforested areas lie on the left bank of the Amazon River Sub-area. The Sub-area bearing the greatest percentages of deforested area is the Eastern Transamazônica Road, which jumped from 4.56 per cent in 2000 to 14.44 per cent in 2004.

Progress of Deforested Area km² - 2000 to 2004

Progress of Deforested Area km² - 2000 to 2004

Central Meso-reg�on Central Meso-reg�on North Meso-reg�on North Meso-reg�on South Meso-reg�on South Meso-reg�on

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4.4 Economic expansion, environment and poverty links

4.4.1 Land occupation and deforestationProtected areas (such as conservation units, military areas and indigenous lands) account for 27 per cent of BR-163 highway area of influence, for a total of 332,640 km² (GTI, 2004). Out of this, indigenous lands cover 197,000 km² (or 20 per cent of the area) and for the most part are lands belonging to the Kayapós, Baú and Menkragnoti (south of Pará); Mundurucus (west of Pará); Apyterewa, Araweté and Trincheira-Bacajá (in the mid-south of Pará); and Cachoeira Seca and Arara, along Pará’s Iriri river.

Sustainable use conservation units cover 40.8 thousand km² in total (4.2 per cent of total protected areas). Economic activities are conducted in this type of conservation unit, provided that the principle of sustainable management of natural resources is applied. The main ones are the National Forests of Altamira (680,000 ha), Itaituba I (220,000 ha), Itaituba II (440,000 ha), Tapajós (600,000 ha), Saraçá-Taquera (429,000 ha), and the Tapajós-Arapiuns Extractive Reserve (647,000 ha). On the other hand, the integral protection units for conservation purposes (where only scientific research and ecotourism activities are allowed) account for less than 1 per cent, such as the National Amazon Park. Finally, the military base of Cachimbo covers 2.3 per cent (22.5 thousand km²).

An extraordinary land area is already in use (764,717 km²) and exceeds the 20 per cent considered as the maximum legal forest cover to be deforested. Now is perhaps the right moment to act. Expansion will now take place in specific, more fragmented areas, and it will be driven by opportunities arising from institutionalization of land use at the macro level.

4.4.2 Frontier, poverty and environmentIn this process driving economics and demographics of frontier advance, environmental, economic and social effects are interwoven. With intense agribusiness expansion, the economic and population repercussions fuel a cycle of poverty-environment relationship.

Firstly, the dual and contradictory character of agro-exporting capital and its effects on social conditions, especially poverty, have to be identified. Capital expansion creates social space (legal or illegal) for income and employment generation and patrimonial gains. On the other hand, it can happen in a concentrated and exclusionary way, increasing pressures for land use conversion, “expulsion” from small landholdings, and marginalization and poverty pockets.

Secondly, the phenomenon is characterized by asymmetric inter-regional relationships. Economic gains are concentrated in the hands of actors based in other regions of the country and even in foreign countries. Capital concentration in the hands of big city groups connected to agribusiness and cattle consolidate the economic occupation of a region. Examples would be agro-industry and timber industries connecting the center-south of the country to large national and multinational commodities conglomerates, especially those dealing in soybeans (Cargill, Bunge, Maggi, etc.). Economic expansion in the region attracts high migration from other regions. Hence some forms of economic expansion are marked by “exporting economic gains” and “importing poor people”.

Poverty is extremely dynamic in that region because it currently attracts labour surpluses from the entire nation. The more job opportunities are created, the more migrants will be attracted, part of a region of speculation where agents for hire, entrepreneurs and workers search for any economic opportunity. The workers who come increase the demand and occupation of land.

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Economic expansion in the region does bring social gains. South Meso-region is the one that has comparatively the best indexes for HDI, GDP, employment and poverty, and also the best healthcare and education structures. However this does not mean that access to opportunities is equal.

Rural family-based production is typical in the area of influence, and has begun to come under pressure from cattle raising and agribusiness production. Family-based agriculture is compelled to move to marginal and more distant regions. The ongoing migration of settlers to other temporary activities or other settlements is another driver of rural poverty with heavy impacts on urban poverty.

Social changes promote environmental impacts and environmental changes promote social impacts. Population movements on the frontier bring chaotic deforestation. People abandon their living conditions and are pushed into more deleterious socio-environmental health conditions. Cities are pressed beyond their capacity to receive new consumers of water and energy and users of sanitary disposal systems. Watersheds close to the cities tend to become polluted and silted up. In turn, environmental impacts affect people, such as:

• Deforestation and impoverished human settlements tend to promote endemic diseases, especially malaria.

• Soil impoverishment – agricultural sectors suffer the most under the scenario of a territory regulated by market rules. Lands become more expensive and are intensively cultivated.

• Workers and their families are the most affected by agrochemicals when production is mechanized.• Inhabitants of cities tend to suffer increased vehicle traffic, high heat rates from more paved roads and

few green venting areas in the cities. • Natural foods are likely to be in shorter supply as industrial products become pervasive in the market.

4.4.3 Winners and losers In the present scenario, the following winners and losers may be identified:

Winners include:

1. Sectors with the most capacity to adapt to competitive situations, in those cities that do have some infrastructure. Rural and urban economic sectors with the ability to acquire lands, especially lands under tenure. Examples are soybean agroindustrial complex, local elites, exporters, producers and agricultural cooperatives, services sector connected to agribusiness, associations of small producers who contribute organizational and productive effectiveness, and family-based farmers closer to thriving consumption centres.

2. Those sectors not willing to conform to the new legal framework for natural resource and territory management, and are not willing to afford the costs required to modernize their operations. Examples are cattle raisers, rogue logging companies, holders of rural and urban lands, illegal economy (contraband, drug trafficking, land grabbing, “cartorialismo”), river carriers and politicians connected to the agrarian economy.

3. Conventional managers of macroeconomic policy, who seek increasing domestic product and trade balance surpluses.


40


Losers include landless segments of the population (family-based farmers who left the business or are in a situation of low competitiveness); indigenous individuals with a strong relationship of subordination to the market; cattle raisers unable to raise the efficiency and output of his active lands; traditional populations that are not able to add value to their products; and urban populations.

For losses of individual stakeholders, see Appendix I.

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�. Integrated assessment and scenar�os

Integrated Assessment in this context aims to identify the different causal relationships between central variables, and seeks to determine the dynamics of deforestation and its interrelationships. Analysis is then performed to build scenarios based on these relationships, so balanced policy recommendations can be made.

Two facts are outstanding from analysis – soybeans were identified as prevalent in the area of influence and most typical in the South Meso-region, especially in Mid-North Sub-area, but the most apparent cause of deforestation appeared to be logging and cattle raising activities. The Deforestation Arch does not seem to have any discernible relationship to soybean crops expansion.

However the reality is more complex. While it is true that deforestation dynamics in the Amazon can not any longer be characterized as a “moving frontier” process with chaotic, rushed and illicit land occupation, deforestation, migration and land occupation processes persist, and land value speculation business definitely persists. These indicators typical for the “Deforestation Arch” are not isolated elements and have clear structural dependence on certain causes in the region. Soybean expansion, as part of a process “transmission-chain”, pushes the deforestation frontier outward.

5.1 Causal relationships The intention here is to identify the underlying causal relationships between the individual variables in order to analyze how changes in two fundamental vectors - mainly the level of market activity and the ability to pursue public policies – produce different outcomes for each scenario ultimately.

The following working assumption is used initially - the primary reason behind increasing deforestation and harmful and uncontrolled territory settlement activities is the land price speculation cycle, whose structure is based on illegal land settlement and land tenure model (both arising due to weak public policies and governance), and the pressure exerted by demand for land driven primarily by the soybean industry and by other thriving crops (signs of high market economic dynamism).

Although the arguments used by some authors seem to be genuine, claiming that the soybean industry is not causing deforestation, but rather the logging and beef cattle raising activities, the project team believed it was important to analyze deforestation-causing economic development in the region and identify the land price appreciation process. Deforestation has its source in land price appreciation as a result of speculation. The transmission chain is:

1. Landtenureandoccupation. The characteristics of land occupation and tenure are mainly due to low land acquisition costs, which are the result of land grabbing, violence, collusion with officials in power, corruption and illegal activities, and high expectation of land price increases, given expected economic development in the region.

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The less Public Policy Capacity (PPC), the less the authorities are able to control illegal activities, the less the “cost of illegality”, the greater the potential for profitable mischief, the greater the Level of Market Activity (LMA), the higher the expectation of new productive uses for land, and therefore a higher expectation of increases in land price, pushing agents towards land speculation.

2. Occupationanddeforestationfortimber. Following such land tenure characteristics, the land is seen

to contain a significant and highly profitable stock of extremely liquid capital in the form of timber. The interests of original squatters and of loggers may be expressed through occupying the unclaimed land as an asset, and extracting gains from logging.

3. Deforestationandcattlerearing. The third moment is associated with cattle raising. Once a piece of land is deforested, the prevailing use is the development of pastures for cattle raising. Again, this may be undertaken by a single actor or by multiple actors. In some cases, the introduction of cattle may simply mean a higher added value activity and that the cattle raiser has acquired lands from the original squatters at prices that will have met his expectations in terms of speculative appreciation. In other cases, the same actor who occupies the land may deforest himself to gain working capital for cattle raising activities.

4. Cattle rearing and agriculture. With the shift towards higher value added agricultural activities, especially soybean cropping, pastures and properties with some established infrastructure are then turned over to agribusiness. More value will be added to the land, which attests to the speculative appreciation that triggered this process.

This is a dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process that is set in motion by the expected appreciation of land value by the squatter. This expectation may be based on his awareness of more thriving agricultural markets in expansion. As a result, the supply of cheap land is increased. Such low costs pull soybean cropping and other technology-intensive crops into these areas, a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy (see Figure 21).

Figure 21: A dynamic, concurrent and self-reinforcing process

LowPPCLowPPC

HighLMAHighLMA

Increase

�n land

supply

Increase

�n land

supply

H�gher

land pr�ce

H�gher

land pr�ce

Fosters land

grabb�ng and

deforestat�on

Fosters land

grabb�ng and

deforestat�on

Fosters soybean

and other

agr�bus�ness crops

Fosters soybean

and other

agr�bus�ness crops

Increase

�n land

demand

Lower

land

pr�ce

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Integrated assessment and scenar�os

LMA ⇒ Land occupat�on ⇒ Deforestat�on ⇒ Increased areas ⇒ Increased areas

for pasture for agr�culture

⇑ ⇑ ⇑ ⇑ ⇑Pav�ng F�ght aga�nst F�ght aga�nst �llegal Encourage to Encouragement

and other illegal acts and logging activities. a diversified to a diversified

measures land grabb�ng Encouragement to a product�on, product�on,

diversified production, sustainable sustainable

susta�nable technolog�es technolog�es and technolog�es and

and add�t�on of value add�t�on of value add�t�on of value

Ordinary policies Social and environmental governance

PUBLIC POLICIES

5.2 Public policies and governanceFor the purpose of Integrated Assessment, there is a need to identify potential changes from the implementation of stronger public policies and governance. Public Policy Capacity is seen here in two aspects - the fiscal status of the State in terms of ability to spend and invest, and the normative and regulating powers of the State in its institutional and organizational capacity, especially to control illegal land occupation and deforestation, and encourage to more socially and environmentally sustainable activities.

Governing bodies must have the correct ability to mediate conflicts and contradictions in order to get the best results, even at the cost of going against interests of specific actors. Thus, while the ability to pursue social and environmental public policies depends on the financial health of the State, an improved fiscal capacity of the State does not necessarily imply improved governance.

Specifically, BR-163 Plan aims to be an instrument to mediate these contradictions, since the public policies for road paving and other infrastructure buildings bring economic benefits but also bring about socio-environmental impacts. The Plan thus proposes actions that are socially beneficial, even though they might lead to some restriction of “free market” forces (see Figure 22).

Figure 22: BR-163 strategies for sustainable development

Public Policies Impacts

F�ght aga�nst �llegal acts and land grabb�ng - Land Pr�ce:

For �ncreased sale pr�ce �n legal areas

For removal of supply �n �llegal areas

F�ght aga�nst �llegal logg�ng act�v�t�es - Cleared area: reduct�on

- Extracted logs:

For Reduct�on �n �llegal logg�ng rates

For Increased pr�ce

Encouragement to a diversified - Increased area and production rates for new thriving activities

product�on, use of technology and - Relat�ve decreases �n cattle ra�s�ng and soybean product�on

add�t�on of value (w�th potent�al growth �n absolute terms)

- Increased �ncome and job creat�on

Encouragement to concentrated product�on - Inducement to the Level of Market Act�v�ty

and convent�onal �nvestments (roads, energy, - Absolute �ncrease �n area and product�on rates for convent�onal

commun�cat�ons, etc.) act�v�t�es: cattle ra�s�ng and soybean product�on.

With contradictions among different public policies, scenario analysis will consider different actions to obtain profiles of possible outcomes. Thus, scenarios analysis shall consider that implementation of policies (see Table 6) might differ significantly in effectiveness according to changes in the scenarios’ main variables.

Table 6: Public policies and impacts

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Level of Market Activity (LMA)

Weak Strong

Public Policy Non-strengthened Scenario 1 – Econom�c stagnat�on/ Scenario 3 – Econom�c growth /

Capacity Soc�al and env�ronmental �nequal�ty Soc�al and env�ronmental �nequal�ty

and degradat�on and degradat�on

Strengthened Scenario 2 – Endogenous Scenario 4 – Susta�nable

development / Soc�al and development / Soc�al and

env�ronmental governance env�ronmental d�str�but�onal

governance

The four scenarios above are presented in detail below.

5.4 Scenario 1: Status quo with no BR-163This scenario applies when:

• The international economy has low growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities is poor, leading the national and regional economies to stagnated integration with global markets and low domestic incentives.

• Central and local public authorities are weakened, whether for structural and financial insufficiency reasons or due to political insufficiency (through political cooption by conservative and personal interests).

5.3 ScenariosA critical component in the discussion about BR-163 Plan is paving of sections that are yet unbuilt, which is lengthier than otherwise. Demanded by the soybean production community in the north of the state of Mato Grosso to help channel production to the port of Santarém, the paving works are, however, opposed by environmentalists and other segments of civil society who think it might lead to uncontrolled land occupation, deforestation and predatory frontier expansion, if paving were conducted in a vacuum and there was a lack of broader policy for regional development and regulation. Hence, the purpose of the BR-163 Plan is to assemble public policies required to avoid this.

Thus, paving and ability to enforce social, environmental and agrarian public policies are key elements for the scenario-building exercise.

Looking at the trends of the Level of Market Activity, paving of the road is clearly one of its determinant factors. Another is the possible economic slow-down caused by a slowing international economy, which over the past few years has been enjoying a virtuous cycle due to American fiscal deficits and China’s astonishing growth. With possible reversion, this would cause the soybean industry expansion in Brazil to slow down.

Seen in overall, PPC and LMA are precisely the core determinant factors (the exogenous variables) behind the deforestation frontier expansion cycle described above.

Both are closely correlated and even interdependent – PPC will be stronger given better State fiscal status from high economic activity, but economic activity will also be stronger given more enhancing policies. Our scenarios are based on (see Table 7):

1. Public policy capacity (PPC), strengthened or weakened. 2. Level of Market Activity (LMA), strong or weak.

Table 7: Scenario construction summary for IAP

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Soybean and Agr�bus�ness 3 Low act�v�ty rate: low pr�ces, low ga�ns, low �nvestments

Local product�on act�v�t�es 3 H�gh land concentrat�on and trad�t�onal crops, by local ol�garch�es

3 Fam�ly-based product�on very weakly �ntegrated and supported

3 Subs�stence act�v�t�es.

Poverty 3 Very h�gh

Interact�on of agr�bus�ness 3 Local conservat�ve land all�ance (�nclud�ng all other trad�t�onal �ndustr�es and

w�th all other sectors ol�garch�es)

3 Precar�ous employment relat�ons

3 Poor comm�tment towards m�t�gat�ng poverty and �mprov�ng l�fe standards

3 Poor d�alogue w�th the organ�zed c�v�l soc�ety

Publ�c Pol�cy 3 Frag�le, slow and focus�ng

3 Mitigating acts at the margin and insufficient/ineffective mitigating acts

3 Publ�c �nvestments, w�th restr�ct�ons

3 Influence of the power of local oligarchies

Env�ronmental �mpact 3 H�gh. Decreased econom�c pressure regard�ng land occupat�on, though w�th strong

encouragement to �llegal acts; �ncreased deforestat�on

Encouragement to susta�nab�l�ty 3 Weak

The scenario is strongly influenced by low tax revenues, and access to goods and services proves to be restrictive and concentrated in the most privileged segments. Benefits are significantly concentrated in the hands of traditional sectors and oligarchies, and across the entire business sector (commerce and services) which is directly or indirectly associated to them. Presence of the State, institutions, and public policies is poor. As a result, there are only a few clientele poverty mitigation measures. The fight against deforestation is also fragile. The private sector is socially, environmentally and also economically predatory, since it does not allow new segments in the economy to grow.

5.5 Scenario 2: Endogenous local development with social and environmental governance, no BR-163This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:• The international economy has low growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities

is poor (see above) .• National and local public authorities have been strengthened in their ability to pursue public policies,

due to the restoration of structural and financial capacities after deficits, and institutional and political capacities to channel government actions towards serving social and public interests.

• Public authorities are drivers of regional and local development actions, leading to income and job creation, with significant impact to compensate for the poor economic integration with the global market.

This scenario has to do with a plausible success situation of current government efforts to push forward social and environmental reforms through regulation and incentives, and increase engagement of the civil society. And this should occur at the same time with recovery of public finance and fiscal health of the State, as well as the maintenance of stable progressive stances across the various administrations.

This scenario depicts maintenance or a return to the region’s historical status before the agro-exporting boom. It is still applicable to vast areas of the North Meso-region, characterized by low degree of economic development, high poverty rates, poorly integrated local economies, economic and political power in the hands of traditional patrimonial oligarchies, absence and/or capture of public authorities, significant illegal acts and high crime rate. In specific terms, such a future scenario involves non-pavement of the road and non-implementation of the BR-163 Plan for sustainability, or other public regulation mechanisms that are currently being implemented (see Table 8).

Table 8: Scenario 1 indicators

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Soybean and Agr�bus�ness 3 Low act�v�ty rate: low pr�ces, low ga�ns, low �nvestments

3 Increased political conflict regarding soybean growers (and all other traditional

sectors) and soc�al publ�c pol�c�es

Local product�on act�v�t�es 3 Efforts to d�sperse land and trad�t�onal ol�garch�es crops

3 Fam�ly small product�on more �ntegrated and supported

3 Subs�stence act�v�t�es rema�n, but now supported

Poverty 3Med�um – h�gh

Interact�on of agr�bus�ness 3 Local conservat�ve land all�ance (�nclud�ng all other trad�t�onal �ndustr�es and

w�th all other sectors ol�garch�es), but w�th more l�m�ted power

3Work relat�ons are less precar�ous and more formal, even �f volume of jobs that �s not

yet so large.

3 Increased comm�tment towards m�t�gat�ng poverty and �mprov�ng l�fe standards

3 Increased d�alog between the sector and the c�v�l soc�ety

Publ�c Pol�cy 3 Strengthened, progress�ve and un�versal�z�ng

3 Both urgent and structural m�t�gat�ng act�ons

3 Government �nvestments under less restr�ct�ons and focused on development

and soc�al a�ms.

3 Decreased influence from the agro-exporting sector’s power and local oligarchies

3More soc�al control, st�ll more defens�ve rather than proact�ve

Env�ronmental �mpact 3 Smaller from decreased econom�c pressure of land occupat�on, and �ncreased control

and d�scouragement to �llegal acts

Encouragement to 3Major

susta�nab�l�ty

The regional GDP rate is likely to be lower within this Scenario than in Scenario 3, but income and jobs created are likely to be bigger and better distributed, and gains will remain in the region. The State may see enhanced tax collection capacity and successfully manage its expenses to foster economic sectors with potential for income and job creation, and to meet social expenses for better public access to goods and services.

There is better distribution of benefits here, with strong governance and furthering of endogenous conditions for economic and social development. The proceeds from more endogenous and local activities also translate into local income and jobs. The private sector is socially, environmental and economically positive, since it tends to be associated to new segments with a good social and environmental impact, though in economic terms they do not yet provide outstanding performance.

In this scenario, however, there is a lack of energy provided by a bustling market and, therefore, no significant pressure on the part of the agri-exporting sector. Nevertheless, some regional and local economic development has been identified, even to a limited extent. This boosts job creation and local income (from family-based agriculture, cooperatives, feedlot and diversified cattle raising, small and medium-sized industries, trade and services, and micro businesses in general) and social policies in general (education, healthcare, food safety, income distribution, etc.). The paths and initiatives pursued over the past few years by the administrations of the states of Acre and Amapá are an illustration. Economic development is not strong enough to establish a level of development that breaks the inherited poverty and inequality levels in the region (see Table 9).


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Soybean and Agr�bus�ness 3H�gh act�v�ty rate: h�gh pr�ces, h�gh ga�ns, h�gh �nvestments

3Soybean growers w�th enhanced econom�c and pol�t�cal power

Local product�on act�v�t�es 3H�gh land concentrat�on, spec�ally for agr�bus�ness and cattle-ra�s�ng

3Fam�ly small product�on weakly �ntegrated and supported

Poverty 3H�gh

Interact�on of agr�bus�ness 3Econom�c and pol�t�cal dom�nance of soybean �n the cha�n w�th other sectors

w�th all other sectors 3Precar�ous employment relat�ons, though somewhat more formal (than �n Scenar�o �)

and with a more significant volume of jobs

3Poor comm�tment towards m�t�gat�ng poverty and �mprov�ng l�fe standards:

Agr�bus�ness alleges comm�tment as �f generated by the �ncome and job themselves

generated by the act�v�ty

3Poor d�alogue w�th the organ�zed c�v�l soc�ety

Publ�c Pol�cy 3Frag�le, slow and focus�ng

3Mitigating acts are only at the margin and inefficient

3Government �nvestments under restr�ct�ons, but concentrated and a�m�ng at address�ng

the demands of the agro-export�ng sector

3Strong influence of the power of the agro-exporting sector and local oligarchies

Env�ronmental �mpact 3Major – Increased pressure regard�ng land occupat�on, w�th a strong encouragement to

�llegal acts and to deforestat�on.

Encouragement to 3Very low


With Scenario 3, the economic momentum generated by BR-163 highway leads to unpredictability in income levels in Pará and Amazonas. Family income level tends to either stabilize or drop depending on supply of formal employment.

5.6 Scenario 3 – Dependent globalized competitive growth withsocial and environmental inequality and degradation, with BR-163This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:

• The international economy has high growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities is strong, thus encouraging the national and regional economies to be strongly integrated, though a dependent one with high domestic incentives to agro-exporting sectors, but whose economic effects are concentrated.

• The central and local public authorities are weakened, whether for structural and financial insufficiency reasons or due to political insufficiency (through political cooption by conservative and personal interests and by the very prevalent agro-exporting sectors).

This scenario represents a 15-20 year forward projection of the current situation of the expanding agro-exporting sector and the weak State (see Table 10). The highway is paved and the BR-163 Plan implemented.


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Although under this Scenario a booming economy is assumed, poor enforcement capacity of the government and the high level of illegal acts cause tax revenues to remain disappointing. Santarém and all other municipalities have production operations that are not taxed. For example, in 2004, Santarém failed to collect municipal taxes on exports worth R$380 million because these were duty-free commodities under the Kandir Act. The paving works would increase the uncertainties involved in ensuing occupation, labour and social problems. An increase in urban labour livelihoods should drive up urban violence, poverty, and undercut public health indicators.

The benefits are heavily concentrated in the hands of agribusiness-related sectors, and they hardly generate local/regional effects, but they are also in the hands of traditional sectors and oligarchies, which still possess significant economic and political powers. The private sector can be socially and environmentally predatory, driven by more aggressive market forces, and the benefits favour wealth concentration.

5.7 Scenario 4 – Dynamic and autonomous economic development integrated to the international market with social and environmental governance and BR-163This scenario for the region may apply in a context where:

• The international economy has high growth and liquidity rates, and demand for agricultural commodities is strong, thus boosting the national and regional economies. The economy is an autonomous and diversified one, with significant domestic incentives to agro-exporting sectors and distinct sectors integrated into the domestic and global economies. Economic effects are more intense and de-concentrated.

• The national and local public authorities have been strengthened in their ability to pursue public policies.

In this context, the public authorities are the drivers of economic efforts in both traditional agro-exporting sectors and new thriving sectors, fostering technical development and sustainable production practices. Dynamic effects for regional and local development, with income and employment creation, promote cycles of international investment and economic growth.

This scenario has to do with a plausible success situation of current government efforts to push forward social and environmental norms, regulation and incentives, as well as to increase engagement of the civil society. The main economic engine is a booming international market, with high demand and international prices for commodities and, therefore, deforestation pressure from the agro-exporting sector. By coupling economic expansion to credit policies and incentive policies for job creation and local income, as well as encouraging social and environmental practices that are more accurate and modern, a higher level of regional and local economic development more integrated to the national and international economies and yet more autonomous and less dependent is the result. In other words, this scenario comes closer to sustainable development than ever before (see Table 11).

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Soybean and Agr�bus�ness 3 H�gh act�v�ty rate: h�gh pr�ces, h�gh ga�ns, h�gh �nvestments

3 A boom�ng status, w�th �ts effects be�ng channeled to econom�c and soc�al

modern�zat�on through more contemporary and susta�nable sectors,

and through publ�c pol�c�es by the government.

Local product�on act�v�t�es 3 Efforts to d�sperse land and trad�t�onal ol�garch�es crops

3 Fam�ly small product�on more �ntegrated and supported

3 Greater degree of technology adopt�on

3 New product�on act�v�t�es, w�th mode added values to product�on

Poverty 3 Med�um

Interact�on of agr�bus�ness 3 Reduced local conservat�ve all�ance w�th trad�t�onal �ndustr�es and ol�garch�es

w�th all other sectors 3 Work relat�ons that are less precar�ous and more formal, w�th a more substant�al

volume of jobs.

3 Increased comm�tment towards m�t�gat�ng poverty and �mprov�ng l�fe standards

3 Increased d�alog between the sector and the c�v�l soc�ety

Publ�c Pol�cy 3 Strengthened, progress�ve and un�versal�z�ng

3 Both urgent and structural m�t�gat�ng act�ons

3 More v�gorous publ�c �nvestments that focus on the needs of the most thr�v�ng

sectors and the needs of soc�al development.

3 Influence from the agro-exporting sector is more modern and proactive

3 Enhanced soc�al part�c�pat�on and control - more proact�ve ones and w�th new

methods of �ntroduct�on

Env�ronmental �mpact 3 Minor – despite significant land occupation pressure, there is more public control of

th�s process and d�scouragement of �llegal act�ons, as well as �ncreased adopt�on

of technolog�es and pract�ces that are more susta�nable by �ndustr�al sectors.

Encouragement to 3 Major


Increased dissemination of income and job opportunities is expected, with an emphasis on growth in Pará and Amazonas, due to incremental change in the number of industrial and services companies. Income levels of households are increased, thus allowing best use of social programmes for income distribution.

As a result of greater tax revenues and public spending capacity, along with an economic boom, new public infrastructure encourages the establishment of industrial plants and leads the area of influence to enjoy an increased share in Municipalities Participation Fund.

Like in Scenario 2, there is better distribution of benefits here, with strong governance and furthering of endogenous conditions for economic and social development, as well as a coordinated environmental management policy at local, state and central levels of government.

Income and job generation at local level, and a better allocation of income, derive not only from endogenously generated gains, but also from major inflows from international markets. The opportunities of an economy based on production chains of a diversified mix of products generate public policies that are able to improve the status of schooling, science and technology in order to expand fundamental requirements for development.

�0


Under this scenario, the paving works of BR-163 no longer are an undertaking of a sector-specific nature and become a major axis of integration for the country, connecting the Amazon that preserves its features and also modernizes itself to sectors of sustainable production. More wealth goes around the various segments of the economy and society, and the private sector provides dynamic effects in both the economy and also environment and social aspects.

5.8 Further evaluation of scenariosDespite all four scenarios being possible (and therefore they all have to be considered), they are not, however, equally likely. Besides their different probabilities of occurrence, different scenarios could be more likely in different sub-regions. The conditions for scenario occurrence are discussed here.

Low economic development and weak presence of the State and public policies are characteristics of the Amazon region. Scenario 1 corresponds to this historical model. Although these features still dominate in large portions in Amazon regions, they are less likely with BR-163. The region will become the focus of government attention and investments, both private and public. Scenario 1 will only occur with a serious economic or State crisis leading to regression and stagnation. Many parts of Central Meso-region recognize this model.

Scenario 2 is marked by some market forces and more strengthened State intervention. This scenario is more likely than Scenario 1, since State intervention has been growing for years to foster local development in the region. Scenario 2 is realistic, as long as: (a) large portions of BR-163 area of influence (especially Central and North Meso-regions) continue to experience weak economic dynamism, compared to Mato Grosso; and (b) an international and/or national economic slowdown or crisis occurs. Scenario 2 seems to be the most likely to happen, for even in Mato Grosso weak economic diversity makes the local economy vulnerable to international economy oscillations and shocks.

The slow-down in the soybean international market, over the last two years, already shows this possibility. Thus, a breakdown in economic dynamism may even lead soybean agribusiness to lose importance and reduce momentum for road paving.

Scenario 3 is also very likely. Its characteristics correspond to the process observed in the north of Mato Grosso over the past 15 years up to 2003. The 1990s were when the world took big steps towards globalization. It was the beginning boom of a cycle, which may or may not continue at the same rates. If State public power is restricted compared to the power of the markets, Scenario 3 shall be the most likely. This means a strong economic advance, reproducing the process in the north of Mato Grosso, but simultaneous failure to control social and environmental undesirable effects and hence implying the failure of BR-163 Plan.

Scenario 4 is seen as the most desirable situation to be achieved. While Scenario 1 corresponds to the historical characteristics of the region, and Scenarios 2 and 3 correspond much more to contemporary realities, Scenario 4 corresponds to a situation of possibility. The realism of this possibility is based, firstly, on the “maturing” of regional economic behavior in face of the national and international economy. Secondly, Scenario 4 uses more effective presence of the State currently yet unobserved. The current process of economic stabilization under way is succeeding after all.

In this scenario, promoting family-based agriculture, feed security, technology development and production diversification shall be emphasized. Scenario 4 creates a situation in which soybeans are still a dynamic segment, but not at the expense of diversification and family-based agriculture, nor do soybeans stimulate disordered and predatory land occupation. The coexistence among soybeans and other elements of a diversified

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Var�ables Ind�cators Un�ts Scenar�o � Scenar�o � Scenar�o � Scenar�o 4

Low dynam�sm Low dynam�sm H�gh dynam�sm H�gh dynam�sm

and low and h�gh and low and h�gh

governance governance governance governance

Env�ronmental Deforestat�on hectares – – – – – – – – – –

(d�rect and Pollut�on ppm – – – – – – – – – –

�nd�rect) So�l eros�on – – – – – – – – –

Soc�al Employment nº posts + ++ ++ ++++

Income R$ + ++ +++ ++++

Poverty nº poor people – – – – – – – – – – –

Educat�on IDH – E + ++ ++ +++

Malar�a Malar�a �ndex – – – – – – – – –

Econom�c GDP R$ + ++ +++ ++++ Soybeans hectares {*} (*) [* * *] {*} (*) [* * *] * * * * * * * Cattle herd growth * * * * * * * * * * * * * rate

T�mber logs (m�) * * * * * * * * * * * * * Fam�ly hectares or {* *} (*) [*] {* * *} (* *) [* *] {* * *} (*) [* *] {* * * *} (* *) [* *] Agr�culture product�on

value

Key:

Pos�t�ve effect Negat�ve effect Econom�c �nd�cator

Low + – *

Med�um + + – – * *

H�gh + + + – – – * * *

Very H�gh + + + + – – – – * * * *

The follow�ng notat�ons have been adopted for Meso-Reg�ons:

{ } Northern Meso-Reg�on

( ) Central Meso-Reg�on

[ ] Southern Meso-Reg�on

economy makes, on one hand, a different social infrastructure and also provides a “protection net” to the local economy, with less exposure and vulnerability to foreign markets oscillations and vicissitudes.For these reasons, the final recommendations in this study shall assume Scenario 4 as its main objective.

5.9 Integrated impacts of environmental and social issuesAt this stage of the assessment, considering the insufficiency of quantitative information, qualitative surveys help to present an integrated view of future options. In Table 12 below, increasing scale means rising intensity of the variable, and does not represent a judgment whether it is “better” or “worse”, since it is not dependent on the variable being “good” or “bad”.

The (+) signs denote variables deemed as “desirable” (e.g. income, health), so the bigger the number of (+), the “better” the situation. In contrast, the (–) signs denotes a variable deemed as “undesirable” (e.g. deforestation, poverty), so the bigger the number of (–), the “worse” the situation. Intensity of neutral indicators is depicted by number of (*) sign.

Table 12: Synthesis matrix of scenarios

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�. Pol�cy recommendat�ons

The recommendations of this integrated assessment project in the areas of policies and monitoring activities, in line with “best case” circumstances of Scenario 4, are:

6.1 Structuring and articulation of policy • Effective articulation between federal and state level programmes for the enforcement of BR-163 Plan’s

fundamental sustainable guidelines. State actions should be pursued in a coordinated fashion, with joint goals and control mechanisms.

• Plans for the economic and social inclusion of the poorest, with adequate credit facilities and technical assistance to overcome structural limitations and maintain economic viability in an era with more competition from economic integration.

• Implement commitment and procedural routines to streamline all government actions towards meeting the Plan’s targets.

6.2 Policy measures to reduce land grabbing, uncontrolled land occupation, and deforestation• Strengthen the functions, instruments and resources (human, financial, organizational, logistical, etc.) of

INCRA and other central agencies to fight illegal acts.

• Enhance the land use planning process with aid from BR-163 and speed up the Municipal Master Plan for the region.

• Enhance measures to combat land grabbing in a consistent fashion, by streamlining court procedures and removing squatters from lands, and also by combining law enforcement strategies with integrated control.

• Enhance the Programme for Social and Economic Emancipation of INCRA’s settlement projects, with land units established by planning of economic activities around integration with surrounding markets, infrastructure, encouragement, education, and healthcare.

• Implementation of a special programme to strengthen family-based agriculture in BR-163’s area of influence, with inter-institutional coordination for the proposals set forth in the BR-163 Plan and other proposals as needed.

• Enhance control over areas already cleared for grain production.

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• Strengthen surveillance and chemicals control by immediately enforcing removal of refuse.

• Enforce a Conduct Rectification Term (TAC) on growers who have damaged Permanent Protection Areas (APPs) and Legal Reserves.

• Implement the Brazilian Forestry Service in Santarém, Itaituba and Novo Progresso.

• Improve IBAMA’s team and operational monitoring capacity, as well as other environmental planning and control organisms.

• Amplify environmental protection areas, especially Conservation Units.

• Use socio-environmental criteria from INCRA’s definitions of productive land for agrarian reform purposes.

6.3 Policies for development• Create a scientific and technological development programme, with the Sustainable Development Centre

for the Amazon (NDSA) as benchmark, for the generation of knowledge and technologies that will add value to agricultural, forest, animal, and fish products in the region.

• Establish four additional units of NDSA in the region at Itaituba, Novo Progresso, Altamira and Óbidos. NDSA acts as an cross-institutional interface for Embrapa, INPA, UFRA, UFPA, FIEPA, and ADA in Santarém, as facilities for research, education, extension, and business incubation focusing on agroforestry economy in the area of BR-163 should be strengthened.

• Create a unit of the Amazon Biotechnology Center (CBA) with NDSA as a model with a view to integrating the region’s bio-industry.

• Publish calls for bids (from the following Ministries: MCT/ MDIC/ MAPA/ MME) to fund rural research and extension in order to build a technical and scientific development brigade that will foster and disseminate diversified economic practices for the best use of natural resources in the region.

• Develop studies and inventories of economic resources in the legal forest reserves of family-based farmers with public support for the establishment of Local Production Arrangements (APLs), in incubated non-timber forest products and conventional agricultural products (manioc, cocoa, black pepper, annatto, fruits, etc.).

• Propose to MDIC/ SUFRAMA, MI/ BASA, MTE, and ADA/ SUDAM an integrated economic leverage programme under the scope of BR-163, with credit facilities and assistance geared towards the fulfilment of high value-added production targets, tax targets, and entrepreneurial opportunities.

• Develop and implement the internal infrastructure network (ports, airports, roads, warehouses, energy, etc.) as required by the BR-163 Plan, but based on an implementation strategy that takes into consideration all other investments and promotion of all economic and social actors.

• Foster special credit facilities, based on social, environmental and technological criteria, for various aims, such as:

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- Family-based agriculture and Agrarian reform projects such as establishing PRONAF credit programme facilities.

- Addition of value and productive diversification to agribusiness products, such as poultry and swine raising, pepper, cocoa, etc., under strict environmental and quality control.

- Technology intensive activities, aiming to break the cycle of extensive, predatory or illegal activities. Specifically, two segments are paramount: (a) Timber, labelled and with sustainable management plans, to enhance a higher professional and legalized standard in timber activity; and (b) Cattle raising, performed to a higher professional and technologically efficient standard, making this activity less impacting.

- Micro-enterprises, such as mini-industries.- Environmentally sustainable activities and projects, including “green credit” lines, by official credit

organisms.- Activities and projects for sustainable use and new products from biodiversity, extractive activities

and biotechnological developments.

• Differentiation in industrial taxes (IPI) for eco-labelled timber.

• Differentiation in land tenure taxes (ITR) according to environmental and social criteria.

• Differentiation in added value taxes (ICMS) in favour of sustainable agro-forestall products.

• Income tax reductions, by reason of investments in socio-environmental projects.

6.4 Policy measures for social inclusion and impacts from uncontrolled growth of medium and small cities • Map hot spots of poverty at local level, identify their fundamental relationships (chronic social exclusion

in education, healthcare, uncontrolled urbanization, environmental citizenship, etc.), and discuss local emergency investment programmes in these areas.

• Concatenation of social policies currently in place (Zero Hunger, food allowance, social security, etc.), structuring e government to support to those regions where the State’s presence is being consolidated.

• Consolidation of rural villages to absorb internal migratory movements and movements from other states.

• Use of master plans as a management tool in the cities such as those affected by the Belo Monte hydroelectric complex.

• Education at all levels heavily oriented towards generating technological innovation, thus making competitive the economic activities based on natural resource use.

• Strengthening local organizations, with all relevant synergies, so that they can ensure specific social and cultural conditions vis-à-vis the pressure exerted by homogenizing forces. This is a key measure considering the strong presence of indigenous populations who intend to maintain their livelihoods or make their own choices regarding external integration.

Pol�cy recommendat�ons

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�. F�nal comments

The purpose of the project was to undertake the complex task of assessing an ongoing planning process, i.e., the BR-163 Plan. For the development plan, assessment required a detailed study of social, economic, and environmental components, including a determination of the soybean sector.

Although numerous studies, scientific theses, qualified reports, statistical data, and even an IAG assessment exist, the project has shed new light on the topic. Four scenarios were drawn from relevant indicators for straightforward use by stakeholders in the Plan.

The participatory approach during the project, such as the national launch workshop and several meetings to discuss its methodology and contents, provided a useful tool to major sectors in the Ministry of the Environment, Ministry of National Integration, and others.

In addition, the 1st National Workshop provided valuable data for the Federal Government in terms of expectations, elicitation of conflicts of interest, and identification of key actors from the society. Representatives of social movements and NGOs were invited to discuss government decisions that were generally restricted to cabinet discussions or lobbying actions.

Incorporation of governmental segments in the planning stage was not a new element for planners since IWG assessment had already brought together 21 Ministries. To further this assessment, the IAP project added the scenario approach, with key quantifiable indicators and an integrated analysis, establishing causal relationships among selected variables that are essential for a more transparent and measurable planning process, thus making it possible to conduct performance assessments for development policy measures.

The relevant scenarios for this study are based on strength of public policy, which will ensure sustainable development and integration with the global market, leading to less deforestation and investments in social and productive sectors, which in turn is to ensure greater social inclusion and increased job and income creation.

On operational issues currently being discussed by planners in the GTI, some ideas could be put forward as inputs to the debate:

• The need to institutionalize the planning process in order to incorporate it into the Pluriannual Plan and its annual reviews. This Plan could help improve the country’s planning system by introducing an integrated planning process that is replicable in other areas.

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• The need to institutionalize managerial coordination bodies for the Plan in each Ministry and State level governments, with oversight by the Casa Civil (Office of the Chief of Staff) and by the Ministry of Planning. The MMA has set up a workgroup that will organize internal actions, perform executive functions and coordinate with governmental peers.

• The priority according to strategic investment importance criteria or emergency status, is not a guarantee of availability of funds for implementation. With a participatory process, the Plan will start to have real meaning. Budgetary increments are sector-specific and each Ministry defines the priority level to be assigned to the BR-163 Plan. For this reason, coordination with the various relevant Ministries and States has to be placed at the level of executive secretariats and governors.

• The allocation of funds for investment in infrastructure and encouragement of sustainable and innovative activities requires a trilateral negotiation among government, private sector, and development banks at national level (BNDES and BASA) and international level (World Bank and IADB). The MMA experience with pilot projects that can be replicated on a large scale and equally crucial is the management of the Constitutional Funds to which the region under the Plan has the right to access.

• As far as social inclusion strategies are concerned, it is necessary to reinforce the current notion among the government stakeholders of the Plan that the pursuit of citizenship by traditional populations in the region cannot be at the expense of the integrity of their culture and inherited knowledge base, and will not destroy their habitat, with which they have a strong interdependence relationship. This makes the civilization process more complex than simply extending the traditional healthcare and education system, and even the production system, to this population.

• On the Plan’s monitoring and assessment, the Executive Group for Plan Coordination could use a set of economic, social and environmental indicators provided here to put together a reporting and monitoring system centralized at the Office of the Chief of Staff or at the Ministry of Planning, with assistance from researchers from the Applied Economic Research Institute (IPEA).

The Plan currently provides a list of objectives/goals and procedures, and seeks to achieve each one of them, but the goals are not interconnected so as to make them interdependent and even mutually reinforcing.

To this end, the Plan should use a multi-tier approach to organize its goals and establish priority for some. It is also important that the Plan be devised not as a straight-line sequence of parallel objectives to be achieved, but as a “tree of possibilities”, where each path taken will depend on the success or failure of the previous steps and inherently allows for different paths based on different contingencies.

IAP could be extremely valuable as it makes it possible to have a better understanding of underlying causality relationships through alternative futures (scenarios). It is necessary, therefore, that the corresponding mechanism be duly embedded into the Plan’s implementation approach. To this end, the Plan must be designed in phases, and the results achieved in each phase must shape the profile of the next phase. The relevant criteria must be made clear in advance during the planning process.

Procedures of this nature are key in a planning process such as that of the BR-163 Road, where contradictory and conflicting impacts are so significant, and where, as a result of the discrepancy of interests and of the correlation of forces, only one of the “parts” of the plan could move forward (such as the paving works) to the detriment of other “parts” that are more difficult to achieve (such as social and environmental goals).

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Appendix I: Losers from existing BR-163 Plan

1.IndigenouscommunitiesWhat is to be lost?Territorial and cultural integrity. More energy expended in internal and external conflicts caused by the disruption of lifestyles and invasion of their lands.

Why?The market becomes a disruptive element, affects land security, and causes territorial and cultural fragmentation.

How many? There are 33 indigenously owned lands in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso.

Where? Throughout the area of influence of BR-163, because the pressure over lands and culture will be unending.

2.QuilombolasWhat is to be lost?Peace and social interaction space, as their areas cannot be expanded, but may be invaded.

Why?As the rims of their lands are used for intensive grain cropping with use of chemicals, they may suffer the effects of environmental pollution. Quilombola may be attracted into the market.

How many? According to Embrapa, there are 7,000 quilombolas in Oriximiná and 3,000 in Santarém.

Where? Óbidos, Oriximiná and Santarém.

3.Family-basedfarmersestablishedinlegalareasWhat is to be lost?Accessibility to land (growing costs and dwindling lands), space for social interaction since the areas involved can no longer be expanded, loss of social, cultural and economic insertion/inclusion capacity. Competition with agricultural products from agroindustrial areas.

Why?This sector currently has the lowest average income among services, industry and agriculture activities. In Pará, 47% of municipalities are still in rural areas. Though a minority, this sector is still representative in the municipalities where the Transamazônica settlements were established, such as in the Low Amazon river area and in the state of Amazonas. Subject to being chased away from the land and to social exclusion.

How many?• Land owners located in areas that are far from neighboring areas, with poor performance of lands and

poor addition of value to products.• The ones in the northern areas and areas where the economy of family-based farmers is restricted to manioc.• Traditional communities along the Tapajós River.

F�nal comments

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• Populations settled by Incra.

Where?• Alongside the Transamazônica road where lands are already occupied and have low conversion costs. • Throughout the entire northern region.• Traditional communities along the Tapajós river.• Settlement projects in the far north of Mato Grosso.

4.CattleraiserswhofailtoincorporatetechnologiesforfeedlotcattleraisingWhat is to be lost?Space free-roaming systems and competitiveness vis-à-vis high-tech sectors coming to the region. Why?By now the expanding area is subject to existing patterns of outdoor production.

How many?Family-based cattle raisers (milk and/or beef production) and free-roaming beef cattle with low average output per hectare.

Where?Throughout the entire area under the influence of BR-163, specifically those outside production chains in far-off areas from the road.

5.LoggingcompaniesthatfailtomodernizedespiteregulationWhat is to be lost?Exploitation of non-regulated public land for raw materials. Losses from competition with more modern companies that have more capital.

Why?Legislation and enforcement/monitoring in a progressive advancement process.Expansion of conservation units and protected areas, and homologation of indigenous lands.

How many?Local companies and all informal agents involved in local chains of exporting sectors .

Where?On the advanced frontier of new extraction areas incorporated in the northwest of Mato Grosso, in the northern side of Amazonas and south of Amazonas, Verde para Sempre, Riozinho do Anfrísio and Tapajós/Arapiuns.

6.Low-skilledworkersWhat is to be lost?Job opportunities for workers with low skill, who will migrate from other regions of the country.

Why?The new economic development starts to require more skilled labor.The local education system fails to meet the demands of the labor market.As a result, external labor is attracted to settle in the region (migration).

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Where?Across the entire region, with significant presence in areas with poor educational facilities. They are located in the areas where traditional populations dwell.

7.Landlessruralworkers/LeaseholdersandsquattersWhat is to be lost?Opportunity to fill spaces closer to the markets and to infrastructure.

Why?Difficulties having access to land due to an increase in prices.

How many?Squatters account for 3.2% of land (327,234 hectares) in Pará; 4.7% (39,853 hectares) in Amazonas and 1.4% (233,212 hectares) of Mato Grosso). Leaseholders, and they cover 399,793 hectares.

Where?Leaseholders: In the most costly areas that are close to the road, considering the appreciation of the land market. Squatters in farther-off areas who tend to shift from urban economic activities and become agrarian reform clients in isolated settlements that are far from the market.

8.LocalurbanpopulationsWhat is to be lost?Conditions for acquisition of urban lands and housing properties due to the appreciation of the real-estate market, which is not matched by any increases in income.• Increased number of slums.• Worsening of public security.• Worsening of public healthcare and sanitation.• Poor urban infrastructure.

Why?• Expansion in migrating movements from rural to urban areas (structural expansion) and from outside the

region.• Agrarian-land instability.• Poor response of local authorities to meet these new demands in urban areas.• Express policies adopted by specific municipalities (especially in Mato Grosso) in the sense of not hosting

poor migrants.

How many?Percentage of the population who tend to occupy urban areas - approx. 50% in the North Meso-region, 40% in the Central Meso-region and 70% in the South Meso-region.

Where?Throughout the area of influence of the road, since in strict terms are rural populations who migrate to the cities without any money on them and without a clear professional occupation.

F�nal comments

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Appendix II: Supporting maps

1. Municipalities in the BR-163 highway area of influence.

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2. Indigenous lands, Conservation Units, and INCRA’s Settlements in the BR-163 highway area of influence.

F�nal comments

�4

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Appendix IV: Project participants and coordinatorsMinistryoftheEnvironmentOffice for Sustainable Development PoliciesEsplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco B, 9º andar 70068-900 - Brasília – DF(61) 4009-1091

Office for the Coordination of the Amazônia Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco B, 9º andar 70068-900 - Brasília – DF(61) [email protected]@mma.gov.brwww.mma.gov.br

UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeBrazil OfficeSCN Qd.02 Bl.A Ed. Corporate Financial Center, sala 110170712-901 - Brasília – DF(61) [email protected]/brasil

ProjectCoordinationCommittee:Cassio Pereira – SCA/MMAFlávia Lima – SCA/MMA Júlio Miragaya – SDR/MIOnice Dall´Oglio– SCA/MMASandra Faillace – SDS/MMAShigeo Shiki – SDS/MMA (Coord.)

Cristina Montenegro – UNEP Brazil Hussein Abaza – ETB/UNEPFulai Sheng – ETB/UNEPMaria Cecília Piñeda – ETB/UNEPYana Dumaresq – UNEP Brazil

EquipedePesquisadoresAndréa Bolzon – CDS/UnBDóris Sayago – CDS/UnBGabriela Tunes da Silva – CDS/UnBMagda Wehrmann – CDS/UnBMarcel Bursztyn – CDS/UnBMaurício César Delamaro – CDS/UnBMaurício de Carvalho Amazonas – IE/UFURaimunda Monteiro - UFRA Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Junior – Embrapa Amazônia Oriental Roberto Bartholo – CDS/UnBVanessa Castro – CDS/UnB

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References

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Bartholo, R., Delamaro, M., Tunes, G. Muito Além do Asfalto. (2005). Cenários Amazônico para a BR-163. Research Report.

Becker, B. (2004). Amazônia: Geopolítica na virada do III Milênio. Rio de Janeiro, Garamond.

Brackelaire, V., Figueiredo, C. Martins, E. (2004). Projeto de controle do desmatamento e desenvolvimento sustentável na região de Influência da BR-163. Identification Report, European Commission.

Brazil (2002). GeoBrasil 2002: Perspectivas do Meio Ambiente no Brasil. Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). Brasília, IBAMA Editions. Available online at http://www2.ibama.gov.br/~geobr (obtained on 5 September 2005).

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Brazil (2005a). Interministerial WorkGroup – Plano BR-163 Sustentável, Priorities for the final version of the Plan. Background document, July 2005.

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Castro, Ana Célia (2005). Localização e Identificação das empresas processadoras de soja, suas áreas de influência, preço e custo de transporte relacionados. WWF-Brazil.

Castro Oliveira, Bernadete (2005). Todo dia é dia de índio: terra indígena e sustentabilidade. In: Amazônia Revelada: Os descaminhos ao longo da Br-163. Maurício Torres (org.), CNPq.

Dantas, Tennyson M. E. Fonteles, and Lidianny, V. (2004). O avanço da fronteira agrícola na Amazônia. Available online at www.sustentavel.inf.br/arquivos/publica/AmazoniaTennyson.pdf (obtained on 4 August 2005).

Droos, Jan Maarten (2004). Managing the Soy Boom: Two Scenarios of Soil Production Expansion in South América. WWF, available online at http://www.panda.org/downloads/forests/managingthesoyboomenglish.pdf (obtained on 6 August 2005).

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Fearnside, Phillip (2005). Carga Pesada: o custo ambiental de asfaltar um corridor de soja na Amazônia. In: Amazônia Revelada: Os descaminhos ao longo da Br-163. Maurício Torres (org.), CNPq.

International Advisory Group (2004). Pilot programme for the protection of the Brazilian tropical rainforest. In O Plano BR-163 Sustentável no quadro das políticas governamentais para Amazônia. IAG, XXI Meeting Report, Brasília, August 2004.

Kuster, Ângela; Marti, Jaime; Fickert, Udo (2004). Agricultura Familiar, Agroecologia e Mercado no Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Konrad Adenauer Foundation, DED, Fortaleza – CE, 2004.

Nepstad, D., Carvalho, G., Barros, A.C., Capobianco, J.P., Bishop, J., Moutinho, P., Lefebvre, P., Silva Jr. U.L e Prins, E. (2001). Road paving, fire regime feedbacks and the future of Amazon forests. Forest Ecology and Management, v. 154, p. 395-407.

Nepstad, D., Lefebvre, P., Silva, JR., Tomasella, J., Schlesinger, P., Solorzano, L., Moutinho, P., Ray, D., Benito, J. G. (2004). Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis. Global Change Biology, Oxford, v.10, n.5, p. 704-712.

Oliveira, Ariovaldo (2005a). Br-163 Cuiabá-Santarém: Geopolítica, grilagem, violência e mundialização. In Amazônia Revelada: Os descaminhos ao longo da Br-163. Maurício Torres (org.), CNPq, p. 67-183.

Oliveira, B.C. (2005b). Todo dia é dia de índio: terra indígena e sustentabilidade. Amazônia Revelada: Os descaminhos ao longo da BR-163. Torres, M. (org), CNPq, 2005.

Rodriguez, L.C.E. (Coord), Miranda, S.H.G., Silva, L.M.S., Ferrari, R.C., Pizzol, S.J.S., Takashiba, E.H. (2004). Diagnóstico socioeconômico da região de influência da BR-163 (Cuiabá-Santarém). Department of Forestry Sciences, ESALQ/USP, November 2004.

Sachs, Ignacy (1999). Caminhos para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 2nd Edition, Garamond, Rio de Janeiro, 1999.

Soares Filho, B., Alencar, A., Nepstad, D., Cerqueira, G., Diaz, M.C.V., Rivro, S., Solorzano, L. Voll, E. (2004). Simulating the response of land-cover changes to road paving and governance along a major Amazon highway: the Santarém–Cuiabá corridor. Global Change Biology, v. 10, p. 745–764, 2004.

Torres, M. (2005). Fronteira: um eco sem fim: considerações sobre a ausência do Estado e exclusão social nos municípios paraenses do eixo da BR 163. In Amazônia Revelada: os descaminhos ao longo da BR-163. CNPq, 2005.

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