breaking bad equilibrium - devops connect 2017 rsac
TRANSCRIPT
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“Breaking Bad” Equilibrium John Willis Twitter: botchagalupe GitHub: botchagalupe
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• One of the founding members of “Devopsdays” • Co-author of the “Devops Handbook”. • Author of the “Introduction to Devops” on Linux Foundation edX. • Podcaster at devopscafe.org • Devops Enterprise Summit - Cofounder • Nine person in at Chef (VP of Customer Enablement) • Formally Director of Devops at Dell • Found of Socketplane (Acquired by Docker) • 10 Startups over 25 years
About Mehttps://github.com/botchagalupe/my-presentations
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• Economics• Wealth• Markets• Thermodynamics
Equilibrium
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• Techical Debt• Cooperation• Risk • Work Life Balance• Burnout
Equilibrium
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It’s a strategy that all the players in the game can adopt and converge on, but it won’t produce a desirable outcome
for anyone.
Bad Equilibrium
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False Equilibrium
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False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
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False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
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Movie Fun
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More Fun - Game Theory
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Is a state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at
least one individual worse off.
Pareto Efficiency
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A situation is inefficient if someone can be made better off even after
compensating those made worse off.
Pareto Inefficiency
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A concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one
where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after
considering an opponent's choice.
Nash Equilibrium
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
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Sarah
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Sarah
Steven
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Split
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Sarah
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Sarah
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Sarah
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Sarah
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Split Steal
Split
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
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Sarah
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Split Steal
Split
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
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50%
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Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
Split
Steal
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50%
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0% 0%
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Sarah
Steven
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Nash Equilibrium
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
50%
50%
0%
0%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0%
0%
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Ibrahim
Nick
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%50%
50%
100% 0%
0% 0%
0%
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Nick
Ibrahim
Split Steal
Split
Steal
100%
0%
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Why Michael Lewis?
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Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their papers showed the ways in which the human mind erred, systematically,
when forced to make judgments in uncertain situations. Their work created the field of behavioral economics, revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-
based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own
work possible. Kahneman and Tversky are more responsible than anybody for the powerful trend to mistrust human intuition and defer to algorithms.
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• Human Irrationality • Heuristics • System 1 (fast) • System 2 (slow) • Availability Bias • Regression to the Mean • Overconfidence • Illusion of Validity
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That’s how it’s always been done
around here!
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• Undesirable Outcomes• Pareto Inefficient • Nash Equilibrium• False Analytics
• Human Irrationality• Cognitive Bias• Overconfidence
Devops Bad Equilibrium
Good Opportunities…- Discontinuity- Dislocation
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Breaking Bad Equilibrium
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• Make work visible • Manage WIP• Manage Flow• Create high trust• Embrace failure
Devops Advanced
Good Better
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Really Hard Stuff
Better Excellent
• Psychological Safety• Blamelessness • Rethink SLA’s• Increase Headcount• Increase Buffers
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You are either building a learning organization…
or you will be losing to someone who is…
Andrew Clay Shafer