breaking the conflict trap: on the factors contributing to civil war recurrence
DESCRIPTION
This is the presentation that I delivered on my research (of the same name) at the 2nd annual Graduate Student Research Conference at George Mason's School of Public Policy on Friday, March 22. For a copy of the paper, visit http://timkovach.com/wp/6cUgT.TRANSCRIPT
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Breaking the Conflict Trap: On the Factors Contributing
to Civil War Recurrence
TIM KOVACHAMERICAN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE
MARCH 22, 2013
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Overview
Introduction to research topic
Review of literature on civil conflict
recurrence
Describe variables, data sources
Discuss preliminary results
Provide final results, analysis
Conclusion
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Introduction
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Introduction
Research Question: Which factors are the most significant determinants of civil conflict recurrence within a ten-year period?
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Literature Review Conflict recurrence literature breaks
into 3 groups:• Root causes of original conflict• How original conflict was fought• Settlement & peacebuilding process
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Dependent Variable Dependent variable: civil conflict recurrence Analyzed civil conflicts ending from 1946-2001
• Tested whether conflicts relapsed within 10-year period• Included 5-year measure for sensitivity analysis
Courtesy of Uppsala Conflict Database
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Independent Variables Conflict Termination variables
• Military Victory, Peace Agreement, Ceasefire Agreement
Conflict Context variables• Conflict duration, identity conflict, natural resource
conflict, UN peacekeeping operation Post-Conflict Development (interval variables):
• Infant Mortality Rate, Natural Resource Rents as % of GDP
Controls:• Population, Anocracy, Cold War conflict, African
state
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Descriptive Statistics
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Bivariate Statistics - Correlations
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Logistic Regression
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Logistic Regression
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Results Military victories more than 80% less
likely to relapse Natural resource conflicts 2-3x more
likely to recur Anocracies 3-4x more likely to
experience recurring conflict
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Conclusions Military victory results may support
Luttwak’s thesis Natural resource conflicts more
intractable than other conflict types Democratization process fraught with
risks