Breaking the Conflict Trap: On the Factors Contributing
to Civil War Recurrence
TIM KOVACHAMERICAN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE
MARCH 22, 2013
Overview
Introduction to research topic
Review of literature on civil conflict
recurrence
Describe variables, data sources
Discuss preliminary results
Provide final results, analysis
Conclusion
Introduction
Introduction
Research Question: Which factors are the most significant determinants of civil conflict recurrence within a ten-year period?
Literature Review Conflict recurrence literature breaks
into 3 groups:• Root causes of original conflict• How original conflict was fought• Settlement & peacebuilding process
Dependent Variable Dependent variable: civil conflict recurrence Analyzed civil conflicts ending from 1946-2001
• Tested whether conflicts relapsed within 10-year period• Included 5-year measure for sensitivity analysis
Courtesy of Uppsala Conflict Database
Independent Variables Conflict Termination variables
• Military Victory, Peace Agreement, Ceasefire Agreement
Conflict Context variables• Conflict duration, identity conflict, natural resource
conflict, UN peacekeeping operation Post-Conflict Development (interval variables):
• Infant Mortality Rate, Natural Resource Rents as % of GDP
Controls:• Population, Anocracy, Cold War conflict, African
state
Descriptive Statistics
Bivariate Statistics - Correlations
Logistic Regression
Logistic Regression
Results Military victories more than 80% less
likely to relapse Natural resource conflicts 2-3x more
likely to recur Anocracies 3-4x more likely to
experience recurring conflict
Conclusions Military victory results may support
Luttwak’s thesis Natural resource conflicts more
intractable than other conflict types Democratization process fraught with
risks