bree.gov.au the australian liquid fuel technology assessment (alfta) november 2014 presented by arif...
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The Australian Liquid Fuel Technology Assessment (ALFTA)
November 2014
Presented by
Arif SyedProgram Leader: Research and Analysis ProgramBureau of Resources and Energy Economics
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OutlineI ALFTA Overview
II Assumptions, Costs and Technologies
III ALFTA Model
IV Levelised Costs of Fuel Over Time
V Key Findings
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I. ALFTA Overview: Previous Work • International studies are not easily available on the
cost of liquid fuel technologies (for transport use).
• In 2012-13, the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism engaged the LEK consultancy to produce cost estimates of advanced biofuel production technologies.
• The study essentially remained inconclusive in producing the levelised cost of fuel estimates (production cost of liquid fuels for transport uses).
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Aim of ALFTA
• ALFTA provides the best available and most up-to-date estimate of current and future costs (component cost and levelised costs) of 18 liquid fuel technologies for transport use.
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Approach• Component costs have been developed through a
bottom-up engineering analysis of each of the
technologies. These costs include, costs such as
domestic capital costs, international capital costs,
labour productivity, etc.
• Parameters provided for each fuel generation
technology (thermal efficiency, O&M costs, fuel
costs, capacity factors, etc.
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ALFTA Report and Model
(1)ALFTA Report: Details the technologies and methods.
(2)ALFTA Model: Available upon request: [email protected]
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II. Key Assumptions
• Key assumptions include: (1) economic growth of
2.5%; (2) AUD moving to 0.86 USD/AUD by 2031-
32.
• Capital costs are provided on the basis of an Nth-
of-a-kind (NOAK) plant in Australia and at a utility-
scale.
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Component Costs
• Capital Costs (local & international components)
• Operation & Maintenance (fixed and variable)
• Feedstock-input costs (provided by ACIL Allen)
• Owner’s costs
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18 Fuel technologies covered:1. Conventional petroleum fuels
2. Liquid petroleum gas
3. Compressed natural gas
4. Liquefied natural gas
5. Gas to liquids
6. Coal to liquids
7. Biomass to methanol
8. Solar dissociation
9. Conventional bioethanol
10. Advanced lignocellulose bioethanol
11. Advanced bioethanol - synthesis gas fermentation
12. Biodiesel by transesterification
13. Hydrothermal upgrade
14. HEFA/HVO
15. Algal biomass via HEFA/HVO
16. Methanol/DME/MTG
17. Fast pyrolysis
18. Alcohol to jet
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Levelised Cost of Fuel (LCOF)
LCOF=KC + O&M fix + O&M var + FC + SC + PC
Where, the LCOF =$/GJ
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III. ALFTA Model
• Values of more than 17 cost parameters can be
altered by users to explore the LCOF estimates’
sensitivity to the user’s input.
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ALFTA Regional Costs
F. Coal to Liquids 100.00% 105.00% 105.00% 120.00%Biomass to Methanol 100.00% 105.00% 105.00% 120.00%Regional Capital Cost Modifiers
East Coast
MetropolitanEast Coast Regional
West Coast Metropolitan
West Coast Regional
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LCOF breakdown in cost components
Select Technology:M. Advanced Bioethanol - Synthesis Gas Fermentation
Select Region:East Coast Regional
LCOF Component ($/GJ) 2013 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Capital Cost #N/A 25 23 21 18 16
Fixed O&M #N/A 5 5 5 6 6
Variable O&M #N/A 8 8 9 10 11
Feedstock Costs #N/A 13 13 13 13 13
Cost of Emissions #N/A 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL LCOF #N/A 52 50 48 47 46
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IV. LCOF over time
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LCOF comparisons 2013, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
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LCOF 2020, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
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LCOF 2050, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
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V. Key Findings
• There are several currently available technologies
from which fuel production is already competitive
with conventional petroleum fuels, i.e. have a lower
LCOF.
• By 2020, multiple emerging technologies are
expected to be available at a lower LCOF than
petroleum fuels.
-- eg. Coal to Liquids (CTL) and Gas to Liquids (GTL).
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Key Findings cont.
• Advanced bioethanol fuel technologies become
cost competitive in 2020, and remain cost
competitive out to 2050.