brett stuart - u.s. and global beef update
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
December 8, 2014Brett Stuart
U.S. and Global Beef Update
Iowa CattleIndustry
Convention
![Page 2: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Global Protein Situation
– Global macro trends
– Beef sector
– Poultry/pork
• U.S. Cattle/Beef
– Supply / Demand
– Expansion
– Outlook and Watchlist
![Page 3: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Global Supply & Demand = Price
• These record beef prices are not a U.S. issue, they are a global phenomenon
• Demand has overtaken supply
• Will supply catch up? And when?
![Page 4: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global Protein Situation
![Page 5: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Fundamental Demand Drivers
Population and Income
![Page 6: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Global Demographics
• The global middle class is beginning a major wave of growth; 2 billion (2012) to 4.9 billion (2030)
– David Rohde, Reuters
• Asia’s middle class spent $4.8 billion in 2010; by 2030 they will spend $32.6 billion (+580%)– OECD, Kiplinger
![Page 7: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
More food will be needed in the next 50
years, than was consumed in the last
7,000 years
Source: US Department of Commerce, plus other published estimates
![Page 8: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Key Shortages
• Chinese beef *
• Chinese pork (pending)
• Russia beef, pork, and poultry *
• U.S., Canada, Mexico beef *
• U.S. pork (PEDv) *
Key Surpluses
• EU pork (due to Russian bans)
• Canada pork (due to Russian bans)
• India beef (buffalo expansion)
• Brazil beef (beef expansion)
* Record high prices in 2014
![Page 9: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 10: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Source: UN/FAO, Indexes: 2002-2004 = 100
![Page 12: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Rising Beef Profits
• Consumers are bidding for more beef
• Profits will translate into investment in infrastructure, R&D, product improvement throughout the global beef chain
• This is an enormous opportunity for global beef producers!
![Page 13: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 16: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Australian Cattle Beef: 2015
• 2013: Beef cow herd hits 37-year high (14.4 mil)
• 2013/2014: Drought hits Australia just as export demand skyrockets; 2014 slaughter jumps 21% from 2012
• 2015: Jan. 1 beef herd expected at 13.3 million, down -1.1 million from 2013
– Production to decline -7%
– Exports to decline -11%
![Page 17: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Australian Cattle & Beef
• 2014 beef export demand is strong; volumes are up +18%, exported value is up +23%
• Live cattle exports are up +83% (1.2 million in 2014)
– Demand is very strong (Indonesia, Vietnam)
– A deal is pending with China (~ 1 million hd/year?)
• Tighter export supplies in 2015 will fuel higher global beef prices
![Page 18: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Australian Drought (25 months)
![Page 19: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends forecasts
Higher U.S. prices to
pull MORE Aussie
beef in 2015
![Page 20: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 21: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Brazil & China (& India) in the Global Beef Complex
• Brazil: #1 Beef Exporter
• China: #1 Beef Importer*
• India: #2 Beef Exporter
* Including Hong Kong (more later)
![Page 22: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Brazil Cattle and Beef
• Brazil could surpass the U.S. as the #1 beef producer within 2 years
• Expansion is underway; beef cows up 3% on Jan. 1, 2015
• Exports to grow by 9% in 2014, 10% in 2015
• Top markets (in order)of Russia, Hong Kong,Venezuela, Egypt, Iran account for 71% oftotal beef exports
![Page 23: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 24: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Source: GTIS, AgriTrends
![Page 25: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS, carc weight equiv.
![Page 26: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Source: China NBS, AgriTrends
![Page 27: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Chinese Demographics
• China’s middle class is estimated around 300 million (roughly U.S. population) and is expected to double by 2022 (8 years)
• A recent study by Boston Consulting Group indicates that more than half of Chinese consumers prefer American products to Chinese products. Over 60% of them are willing to pay more for products that are “Made in USA.”
![Page 28: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Source: GTIS, AgriTrends, 2014 YTD
![Page 29: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS, includes China, Hong Kong, and Vietnam
2014 Imports = 3% of combined consumption
![Page 30: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Source: China Ministry of Ag, USDA/ERS
![Page 31: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
China Corn
• China corn supplies are HUGE
• Demand has fallen due to pig liquidation
and…
• Pig farmers paid 2,466 rmb/ton (US$9.62/bu) last week???
1970’s poster “Reap an abundant
harvest, store grain everywhere”(source: Fred Gale, Dimsums blog)
![Page 32: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS
![Page 33: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Indian Cattle and Beef
• India is has the largest cattle inventory in the world.
• “Cow” slaughter (Brahman-bred) is banned in most states due to the religious nature of the majority Hindu population
• Water “buffalo” slaughter is legal. This is the dairy herd. Production and exports of buffalo meat has grown significantly.
• India is now solidly the #2 exporter of bovine meat globally, and growing
![Page 34: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Source: UN/FAO
![Page 35: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends
India’s Top 15 Beef Exports2013 metric tons and % of total exports
India Brazil U.S. CanadaVietnam 474,953 35% 376 0% 3,946 0% 331 0%Thailand 167,632 12% 13 0% 219 0% 3 0%
Malaysia 121,070 9% 560 0% 34 0% 24 0%
Egypt 92,171 7% 136,594 11% 17,345 2% 72 0%S. Arabia 70,616 5% 50 0% 57 0% 1,363 1%
Jordan 46,845 3% 17,550 1% 558 0%Philippines 43,747 3% 13,911 1% 7,323 1% 359 0%
Algeria 43,163 3% 20,961 2%UAE 42,993 3% 15,103 1% 5,096 1% 271 0%Iran 40,622 3% 58,963 5%Iraq 27,950 2% 306 0%
Angola 27,035 2% 19,997 0% 1,182 2% 128 0%
Kuwait 20,521 2% 1,240 0% 2,603 0%Congo 18,158 1% 269 0% 4 0%
Oman 13,832 1% 214 0% 125 0%
India's top 15 1,251,309 93% 286,106 22% 38,492 4% 2,550 1%
![Page 36: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Forecasts / Watchlist
![Page 37: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Past 6 years: 0 mmt
Next 9 years: 9 mmt
![Page 38: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends
![Page 40: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
17% of Fed Cattle Value YTD 2014
![Page 41: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends
![Page 42: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Source: USDA/ERS, AgriTrends
![Page 43: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Source: USDA
![Page 44: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Source: USDA, Pacific Exchange
![Page 45: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Will Supply Catch-Up to Demand?
• Consumers are bidding for more beef
• Profits will translate into investment in infrastructure, R&D, product improvement throughout the global beef chain
• This is an enormous opportunity for global beef producers!
• Yes – but it will take 3-5 years
![Page 46: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Watchlist
• Beef, pork, and poultry all profitable; but expansion will take time
• China sow liquidation / supply gap ahead• China beef access? (India, Brazil, U.S., Ireland)• TPP DOA?• MCOOL timeline• Key indicator: U.S. 90% Lean Prices• Infinite price growth?
![Page 47: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
U.S. Cattle & Beef
Supply / Demand
![Page 48: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
U.S. Cattle & Beef: Record Highs
• Herd size declines to the point that production declines (2009-2014)
• PEDv drives hog futures to record highs (and then some) (2014)
• Broiler hatchers uncover breeder flock issues; breeding chicks reduced (2013/2014)
• Global beef production remains flat for 7 years (2007-2014)
• China becomes the largest beef importer (2012)
![Page 49: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Source: CattleFax
![Page 51: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Source: USDA, CF
![Page 53: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
![Page 54: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
![Page 55: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
![Page 56: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
2014 will be smallest supply
![Page 58: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
F2014 24.2 -1,300,000 hd.
F2015 23.8 -400,000 hd.
F2016 24.3 +500,000 hd.
![Page 59: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Expansion?
![Page 60: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Source: USDA, CF
![Page 61: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
![Page 62: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
1980 – 2000 average P/L of $2.04 per head
Not sustainable!
![Page 63: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
![Page 64: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
25-Year Avg. = 1.5 calves to
pay for a cow
Expansion/Stabilization
![Page 65: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
![Page 66: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Prices and Outlook
![Page 67: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
![Page 68: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
![Page 69: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
![Page 70: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Source: USDA, CF
![Page 71: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
![Page 72: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
![Page 73: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Summary• Simple economics: Tight supplies = higher prices
• The U.S. cowherd will expand over the next 2-3
years
• Highest prices will likely occur in 2015
• Key items to watch:
• Chicken and pig expansion
• Retail price spreads
• Foreign TRADE
![Page 74: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
74
Services Offered:
• Global market research
• Specific market reports
• Email alerts/analysis
• Monthly newsletter
• Webinars / presentations
Brett [email protected]
303-803-8716
@agritrends
www.globalagritrends.com
Thank You!
![Page 75: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Extra Slides – not needed
![Page 76: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Weights are currently adding the
equivalent of 14,000 cattle per week
Source: USDA, CF
![Page 77: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
2014F Down 475 Million lbs. = 1.5 lb/Capita
![Page 78: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
![Page 79: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Source: USDA/FAS, Global AgriTrends
India’s 177 million Muslims account for most
domestic beef consumption
![Page 80: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
![Page 81: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Source: GTIS, AgriTrends, includes offal
![Page 82: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
China Ag Outlook
• China’s food self-sufficiencies are slipping; China to allow managed import growth
• Rising incomes will continue shift diets; China will need more corn, pork, oilseeds, and dairy
• Economic growth will slow, yet likely remain around 7.1% in 2014; that rate will double incomes in 10 years. Where will our commodity prices be then?
![Page 83: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
China Self-Sufficiency
A 1% decline in China’s self sufficiency equals:
• 2.1 mmt of corn
• 1.45 mmt of rice
• 1.21 mmt of wheat
• 538 kmt of pork
• 135 kmt of broilers
• 58 kmt of beef
Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends
![Page 84: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Global Beef Exports
• World Exports = $42 billion in 2013
– 4 year average annual growth = 10%
– Avg export $/lb = US$2.24/lb (excl. India)
• India Exports = $3.1 billion in 2013
– 4 year average annual growth = 43%
– Avg export $/lb = US$1.24/lb
“India caters to the meat demand of major Islamic countries as the meat is genuinely halal, lean and nutritious, more healthy than beef. Indian buffalo meat is ideal for processing since it retains more moisture and binds easily with ingredients. Indian buffalo meat is witnessing strong demand in international markets due to its lean character and organic nature. Also India has a cost advantage as Indian buffalo meat is most competitively priced red meat in the world”
Overview of The Indian Buffalo meat value chain, http://www.ficci.com/publication.asp
![Page 85: Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef Update](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051617/55a58a151a28abc2138b4678/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Source: GTIS, AgriTrends