brian fuchs, climatologist national drought mitigation center university of nebraska-lincoln drought...
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Brian Fuchs, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Drought Monitoring: Challenges in the Western United
States
The Climate Impacts GroupAnnual Fall Forecasting Meeting
October 22, 2009Boise, Idaho
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The U.S. Drought MonitorSince 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought
Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners
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A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC, NCDC, and RCC’s (authors)Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) (experts)
The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions
The Drought Monitor Concept
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A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map
Trying to capture these characteristics:the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)
spatial extent
probability of occurrence
Impacts
Rates drought intensity by
Percentile Rankings
The Drought Monitor Concept
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Original Objectives
“Fujita-like” scale
NOT a forecast!
NOT a drought declaration!
Identify impacts (A, H)
Assessment of current conditions
Incorporate local expert input
Be as objective as possible
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Key Variables For Monitoring Drought
climate datasoil moisturestream flowground waterreservoir and lake levelssnow packshort, medium, and long range forecastsvegetation health/stress and fire danger
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U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators:
- Palmer Drought Index- SPI- KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture- 7-Day Avg. Streamflow- Precipitation Anomalies
Growing Season:- Crop Moisture Index- Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data
In The West:- SWSI- Reservoir levels- Snowpack- Streamflow
Created in ArcGIS
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Indices for“The West”
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USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model
Satellite Veg Health
SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings
Principal Drought Monitor InputsPrincipal Drought Monitor Inputs
Palmer Drought Index
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Use of the DM in Decision Making
USDA Dried Milk Program 2002-03
USDA CRP Release hot spot trigger
Numerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declarations)
2006 USDA Livestock Assistance
2006 IRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)
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Challenges?
NRCS Data (RAWS & SNOTEL) Data Density
Basin DataSWSI not being calculated for all basins
State DataWell/Reservoir Data sets not centralized
Climate Change
Population Shifts
New Efforts ?California Drought Tracker
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WASHINGTON –Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne has approved $9.2 million in Water 2025 Challenge Grants for water conservation projects across the West.
The grants will help fund 44 projects in 11 states. Including the matching contributions of non-federal partners, the selected projects represent a combined investment of more than $32 million in water management improvements.
July 26, 2007 www.doi.gov/water2025.
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Stresses on Western Water
Population Projections (2000-2030)
Greatest increases expected in the driest states.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NEEDS: FRESH WATER!
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It’s all about the water!
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National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu/dm