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BriefingPerth CBD Office June 2019

Savills Research Western Australia

Highlights

Leasing activity in the Perth CBD improved significantly in the year to June 2019, with volumes double the year prior;

The total vacancy rate fell 70 basis points to 18.5% as at December 2018, with Premium grade vacancy recorded at 4.5%;

Foreign and domestic investors are showing an increasing interest in quality assets in the Perth CBD, as investors recognise the “comparative value” and strong yields offered;

Signs of a strengthening economy are evident with WA boasting the highest job advertisement growth nationally.

A Grade Averages Latest 12mo Diff Outlook

Rental – N.F. ($/sq m) 590 +4.4% Incentives (%) 48.8 +00bps Rental – N.E ($/sq m) 305 +5.2% Yield – Market (%) 6.50 -50bps IRR (%) 7.15 -35bps Capital Values ($/sq m) 9,000 +12.5%

Demand & Supply Latest Yr Before

Vacancy (%) 18.5 19.8

Net Absorb. (‘000sq m) 15.3 47.3

Stock U/C (‘000sq m) 4.0 53.6

- % of market 2.2% 3.1%

- % committed 56.6% 100%

Source: Savills Research

June 2019

savills.com.au/research 2

Savills Research | Briefing Notes – Perth CBD

Executive Summary

Confidence has returned to the Western Australian economy over the course of 2018 and into the 2019, with a number of telling indicators emerging. Total job advertisements for WA, although coming off of a low base, are currently the greatest nationally, driven by the office and industrial sectors. As of July 2019 the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate to 1.00%. Savills Research expects the move will further encourage investment activity in the market and further boost employment opportunities in the state which currently has an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

Mining and Resources investment in the State has risen, with a number of larger scale projects announced and committed to. Savills Research expects this investment will have positive impacts on employment and overall economic growth. This will positively impact Office demand going forward. BHP will develop the $4.7 billion South Flank Mine in the Pilbara, generating 2,500 construction jobs and 600 positions once operational. Rio Tinto has approved its $3.5 billion Koodaideri Mine, with a total of 2,000 workers required for construction and 600 permanent roles upon completion. Fortescue has announced, Iron Bridge ($3.5 billion) and its Eliwana Mine ($1.7 billion) projects, totalling approximately $5.2 billion, resulting in $13.4 billion worth of investment committed since June 2018 from these key iron ore players alone.

In addition, investment in LNG remains a major contributor to the overall resource industry. Approximately $44 billion, specific to LNG, is currently under consideration, with Woodside and it’s JV partners Shell, BP, Japan Australia LNG, and PetroChina considering a $30 billion investment in its Browse & North West Shelf project. While BHP and Woodside are considering a $14 billion investment into the Scarborough LNG Project. As at December 2018, approximately $81.5 billion worth of resource projects are currently under construction or consideration in WA.

Tenant demand, particularly for Prime stock, has strengthened considerably with the ‘flight to quality’ trend creating a two-tiered market, where the gap between Prime and Secondary grade vacancy rates is increasing. The market is slowly starting to see incentives in Premium space taper off, as well as in higher quality A grade buildings where occupancy is normalising. Sales activity over the last 12 months indicated an increasing demand for quality assets not only from domestic funds and trusts but also foreign investors. Comparatively speaking, average market yields are still relatively high when comparing to other Australian markets, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, along with the strengthening market fundamentals that continues to be a drawcard for investors.

PCA Summary Table – Perth CBD (as at Dec-18)

Premium A Grade Prime Secondary Total AUS CBD

Total Stock (‘000) 302.2 780.0 1,082.1 677.1 1,759.2 17,902.6

Total Vacancy (‘000) 13.5 126.8 140.3 185.5 325.8 1,482.7

Vacancy (%) 4.5 (6.1) 16.3 (12.3) 13.0 (10.3) 27.4 (16.9) 18.5 (13.0) 8.3 (9.4)

Net Absorption (‘000) -45.2 (4.6) 58.9 (9.9) 13.7 (14.5) 1.7 (1.2) 15.3 (15.7) 230.7 (181.3)

Net Absorption (%)* -13.5 (1.7) 9.9 (1.7) 1.5 (1.7) 0.3 (0.2) 1.1 (1.2) 1.4 (1.2)

Net Additions (‘000) -54.2 (5.9) 55.0 (21.8) 0.8 (27.7) -10.7 (18.9) -9.8 (46.6) -46.2 (257.6)

– Stock Additions (‘000) 0.0 55.0 55.0 0.0 55.0 317.8

Report Contents

Vacancy & Availability 3Leasing Activity & Demand 4Sales Activity 6Supply & Development 8Rents & Outlook 9

Key Indicators 10 Key Contacts 11 For our latest national reports, visit

savills.com.au/research

To join Savills Research mailing list, please email [email protected]

Source: Savills Research (10yr Averages shown in brackets); NB: Secondary Rents shown are for B Grade; All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise *As a percentage of occupied stock

[email protected]

Nicson HewResearch & Consultancy

Head of Research Research & Consultancy

Phil [email protected]

June 2019



Vacancy

Vacancy within the Perth CBD office market experienced a fall of 70 basis points in the six months to December 2018, recording a total vacancy rate of 18.5%. There has recently been an uplift in leasing activity, with volumes doubling over 2018, indicating signs of a recovering economy. The significant decline in vacancy was a direct result of recentralisation to the CBD and the flight to quality, clearly evidenced by the divergence in direction of the Premium and A Grade vacancy. Savills Research expects the vacancy rate to fall further over the next 5 years, in line with limited upcoming supply and strengthening demand drivers.

Full Floor AvailabilityIn Savills’ Prime Full Floor Availability Report, the state of the leasing market is assessed in a different manner to most vacancy surveys. The report considers Premium and A grade buildings in the city on a floor-by-floor basis, identifying whole floors competing for tenants - both now and in the future - including those under construction and refurbishment, along with backfill space created by pre-commitment.

As at June 2019, 151 full floors are available in the Perth market, up from 148 a year prior, but down from and a peak of 180 available floors in August 2016. Tenants are seeking quality space and taking advantage of generous incentives on offer in the CBD. Of the 151 Prime floors vacant, 102 are available for immediate occupation, 23 are available in six to 12 months, while 4 are available in 12 to 24 months as a mix of new developments and backfill space. While overall vacancy remains relatively high, the availability of contiguous space is limited, with only six building options over 5,000 square metres and three options over 10,000 square metres available for tenants as at June 2019.

By Grade By Precinct

Total Premium A Grade West CBD Mid CBD East CBD

Total Prime Floors (No) 901 278 623 553 251 97

Total Prime NLA (sq m) 1,180,263 459,328 720,935 779,198 279,917 121,148

Prime Floors Available (No) 151 44 107 99 40 12

Prime Full Floor Avail. (sq m) 182,223 70,796 111,427 128,617 39,048 14,558

Prime Full Floor Avail. (%) 15.4% 15.4% 15.5% 16.5% 13.9% 12.0%

Max Contiguous Floors (No) 13 12 13 13 7 3

Max Contiguous Area (sq m) 19,720 19,720 12,691 19,720 11,854 3,150

Full Floor Availability by PeriodHistoric Vacancy Rate (Perth CBD)

Source: Savills ResearchSource: PCA OMR / Savills Research


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35% Prime Secondary Total

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

In 6 Mths 6 -12 Mths 1 - 2 Yrs > 2 Years

Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35% Prime Secondary Total

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

In 6 Mths 6 -12 Mths 1 - 2 Yrs > 2 Years

Premium (sq m) A Grade (sq m)


June 2019



-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000 East CBD Mid CBD West CBD

Mining - 43.2%

Govt & Community - 30.9%

Prop & Bus Serv - 19.2%

Fin & Ins - 6.6%

IT & Comm - 0.0%

Rec Serv - 0.0%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000 Annual Net Abs. - PER CBD Prof. Job Ads - WA

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Mining - 43.2%



Fin & Ins - 6.6%

IT & Comm - 0.0%

Rec Serv - 0.0%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000


Leasing Activity & DemandOver the 12 months to June 2019, Savills Research recorded 120,823 square metres of leasing activity (>1,000 square metres) within the Perth CBD office market, double the volumes seen in the 12 months prior.

The majority of activity within this period was in the 1,000 to 5,000 square metre category, accounting for approximately 49% of total leasing volumes. There were no leases recorded above 10,000 square metres in the 12 months to June 2019, with one of the larger leases being in the A grade asset at 556 Wellington Street, with the Department of Human Services signing a 10 year lease across 8,495 square metres.

The ‘Mining, Utilities and Industry’ sectors remained the most dominant tenant type over the last 12 months, accounting for 43.2% of total leasing volumes. Notably, Hammerley Iron secured 6,784 square metres at 95 William St in March 2019. The Iron ore company has renewed their existing lease for 7 years in levels 1 and 2 of the building.

Co-working giant WeWork will open their first Perth hub later in the year, recently signing a 12 year lease across 7,900 square metres at Central Park. WeWork will open seven floors of flexible office space in the Premium grade tower alongside other major tenant Rio Tinto. With flexible workspaces throughout the east coast cities growing at a fast pace, we expect to see Perth follow this trend.

The ‘Government & Community’ sector were the second most active in the 12 month period, accounting for 30.9% of total leasing activity. The Department of Human Services and Department of Social Security secured approximately 9,625 square metres across two buildings, the first in the aforementioned lease at 556 Wellington Street, and an additional 1,130 square metres at 45 St Georges Terrace on a seven year term.

We are likely to see leasing volumes continue to be supported by the recentralisation trend, as lessees look to capitalise on high incentives. This trend is further complemented with development projects such as Elizabeth Quay and Perth CityLink adding greater amenity to the area and increasing the attractiveness of the CBD to prospective tenants.

Leasing Activity by Precinct (> 1,000 square metres)


Leasing Activity by Tenant Type


-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Mining - 43.2%



Fin & Ins - 6.6%

IT & Comm - 0.0%

Rec Serv - 0.0%

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000


Source: DOE / Savills Research

Net Absorption vs. Growth in Professional Job Ads

June 2019



Professional job advertisements in Perth were up 12.04% in the 12 months to April 2019 making it the strongest growth nationally. Despite the base being significantly lower than the east coast cities, Perth has continued to show significant year on year growth over the past 18 months in line with the resurgence in the mining sector. We can expect to see this growth continue on the back of Western Australia’s strengthening economy, particularly as significant mining investment projects begin.

Recent Notable Leases (by Area Leased)

Property Tenant Date | NLA (sq m) Type | Rent | Term

556 Wellington St, Perth Department of Human Services Oct-18 | 8,495 Direct | 535 (N) | 10

152-158 St Georges Tce, Perth WeWork Feb-19 | 7,900 Direct | 620 (N) | 12

95 William St, Perth Hammersley Iron Mar-19 | 6,784 Renewal | 425 (N) | 7

1 William St, Perth Technip FMC Nov-18 | 6,346 Direct | 565 (N) | 5

556 Wellington St, Perth St John of God Healthcare Dec-18 | 5,232 Direct | n.a | n.a.

240 St Georges Tce, Perth Macquarie Bank Sep-18 | 3,311 Direct | n.a | n.a.

300 Murray St, Perth Regus Oct-18 | 1,910 Direct | n.a | n.a.

2 The Esplanade, Perth Mitsui E&P Nov-18 | 1,499 Renewal | 575 (N) | 5

45 St Georges Tce, Perth Dept of Social Services Sep-18 | 1,130 Direct | 470 (N) | 7

44 St Georges Tce, Perth SRB Legal Sep-18 | 1,100 Direct | n.a | n.a.

1 William St, Perth Jadestone Energy Sep-18 | 1,096 Direct | 575 (N) | 3

Source: DOE / Savills Research

Office Job Ad Growth by State (Apr-19)

Source: Savills Research Leasing Types: p = Pre-commitment, d = Direct, s = Sub-Lease, r = Renewal

0.08%

0.67%

4.78%

6.93%

7.37%

7.52%

8.77%

12.04%

ACT

NT

NSW

AUS

SA

QLD

VIC

WA

June 2019



Sales Activity

In the 12 months to June 2019, Savills identified approximately $526.3 million of office transactions (above $5 million) in Perth CBD. This was down from the previous 12 months of $836.2 million and lower than the 10 years average of $647.1 million.

Two major transactions above $100 million occurred in the 12 month period making it the most dominant price category. Singaporean based investor GIC purchased the Premium Grade asset Exchange Tower in December 2018 from co-owners AMP Capital and Primewest. Transacting at a net sale price of $309.4 million, the deal reflected an equated yield of 6.28% and a capital value of $9,025 per square metre.

Domestic funds remained active in the Perth CBD market over the 12 months to June 2019, accounting for approximately 41% of total sales volumes. Elanor Investors Group were key players over this period, purchasing two assets within Perth CBD. They acquired WorkZone West at 202 Pier Street in June 2018 for $125.25 million. The sale reflected an equated yield of 7.04% and a capital value of $8,028. The A grade property is part of a twin-tower complex, which includes WorkZone East that was acquired by CorVal at the end of 2016 for $68.25 million. More recently in March 2019, Elanor Investors purchased 34-50 Stirling Street for $24 million from NewsCorp in an off-market deal.

66 Georges Terrace sold in December 2018 as part of Oxford Properties divestment strategy to sell off the non-core assets that are part of the Investa Office Fund. Oxford Properties purchased the portfolio for $3.4 billion earlier in 2018. The B grade asset was purchased by CorVal for $72.25 million in an off-market deal and was the second Perth CBD office asset purchased by the fund in the last three years.

Sales Activity by Price (Perth CBD)


Vendor & Purchaser Type (> $5 million)


Source: RBA / Savills Research

Perth CBD A Grade - Yield Range to 10yr Bond

$0m$200m$400m$600m$800m

$1,000m$1,200m$1,400m$1,600m$1,800m $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Purchasers

Vendors

Fund Trust DeveloperOwner Occupier Government SyndicateForeign Investor Private Investor Other

$0m$200m$400m$600m$800m

$1,000m$1,200m$1,400m$1,600m$1,800m $5m - $50m $50m - $100m >$100m

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Purchasers

Vendors

Fund Trust DeveloperOwner Occupier Government SyndicateForeign Investor Private Investor Other

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

10yr Bond Rate Market Yield - Average IRR - Avg

June 2019



Market yields in Perth CBD (as at June 2019) are estimated to range between 5.25% and 6.00% for Premium grade buildings, between 6.00% and 7.00% for A Grade buildings, and between 7.00% and 8.00% for B Grade buildings.

Capital values in the Perth CBD, as at June 2019, are estimated to range from $10,000 per square metre to $13,000 per square metre for Premium Grade buildings, between $8,000 per square metre and $10,000 per square metre for A Grade, and between $5,000 per square metre and $7,000 per square metre for B Grade buildings. These figures recorded subtle growth over the 12 month period which we expect to see continue to rise as investors focus their attention towards the west coast.

In context, the differential between capital values for the Perth and Sydney CBD markets is the highest it has ever been, with the difference averaging at approximately $12,250 per square metre. Demand from both domestic and international capital is recognising Perth as a counter-cyclical play and an opportunity to take advantage of greater yields in comparison to the eastern seaboard.

Recent Notable Sales (by Sale Price)

Property Price ($m) | Date | NLA Yield | Type | $/sq m

34-50 Stirling St, Perth 24.00 | Mar-19 | 6,657 n.a | n.a | 3,605

179 St Georges Tce, Perth 18.25 | Feb-19 | 4,340 n.a | n.a | 4,205

66 St Georges Tce, Perth 72.25 | Dec-18 | 11,404 7.20 | e | 6,335

226 Adelaide Tce, Perth 86.00 | Dec-18 | 14,391 7.18 | e | 5,976

8 St Georges Tce, Perth 9.25 | Dec-18 | 4,554 7.36 | e | 2,031

2 The Esplanade, Perth 309.40 | Dec-18 | 34,284 6.28 | e | 9,025

202 Pier St, Perth 125.25 | Jun-18 | 15,602 7.04 | e | 8,028

125-129 Murray St, Perth 8.10 | May-18 | 6,325 n.a | n.a | 1,281

441 Murray St, Perth 22.00 | Apr-18 | 5,849 7.44 | e | 3,761

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000 Capital Value - PER CBD Market Yield (RHS)


Capital Value ($/sq m) vs. Market Yield

Source: Savills Research; Yield Types: i = Initial, r = Reported, e = Equated, v = Vacant, dev = development

June 2019



Supply Supply over the next three years is limited with only three minor projects due for completion until 2021. The next period of supply will begin in 2022 with major projects such as Lot 7 & 8 of Elizabeth Quay due for completion.

Plans for the 30-storey mixed-use development comprising over 50,000 square metres of office space (including lobby, conference facilities) for Lot 7 The Esplanade, Elizabeth Quay have now been approved. Chevron acquired Lots 7 and 8 in 2013 for $64 million, and in June 2018 reported they would be moving ahead with the project having appointed Brookfield as the developer. The oil and gas giant currently occupy a number of buildings within the Perth CBD, including approximately 28,000 square metres at QV1, with expiry estimated to be in line with the completion of the new build.

In December 2018, Brookfield gained approval for its $122 million Elizabeth Quay Bus Station redevelopment. But it is unlikely to proceed until a pre-commitment tenant is secured.

Building Address Dev Stage

NLA Exp. Comp

Precinct Tenants

300 Murray St UC 3,000 2019 West CBD

Regus

28 St Georges Tce UC 1,028 2021 East CBD RSL Cnr Murray St & Milligan St

PA 10,000 2022 West CBD

207 Murray St (Carillon) PA 20,000 2022 Mid CBD Chevron HQ, Lots 7 & 8, EQ

PA 52,355 2023 Mid CBD Chevron

Esplanade Busport, 1 & 21 Mounts Bay Rd

PA 18,000 2023 West CBD

(40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Historic Net Additions Savills Forecast15yr Avg

Net Supply by Year (square metres)

Source: PCA / Savills Research

The table below details the major upcoming and planned development projects in the Perth CBD.

Building Address Dev Stage NLA Exp. Comp Precinct Tenants

300 Murray St UC 3,000 2019 West CBD Regus

28 St Georges Tce UC 1,028 2021 East CBD RSL

Cnr Murray St & Milligan St PA 10,000 2022 West CBD

207 Murray St (Carillon) PA 20,000 2022 Mid CBD

Chevron HQ, Lots 7 & 8, EQ PA 52,355 2023 Mid CBD Chevron

Esplanade Busport, 1 & 21 Mounts Bay Rd PA 18,000 2023 West CBD

Source: Cordell / Savills Research; UC = Under Construction, EP = Early Planning, PS = Plans Submitted, PA = Plans Approved.

Development

June 2019



Rents

As at March 2019, net face rents in Perth typically range from $630 to $725 per square metre per annum for Premium Grade, $525 to $650 per square metre per annum for A Grade and $250 to $525 per square metre per annum for B Grade. There has been minimal change to these rents since 2016.

Although incentive levels still vary greatly between buildings, incentives in Prime Grade assets in the CBD range from 47% to 50% on average. Secondary grade incentives are slightly higher, averaging 50% or above in some cases.

Due to these high incentives, net effective rents over the past three years have recorded steady falls. As at March 2019, net effective rents typically range from $320 to $390 per square metre per annum for Premium, and between $245 to $335 per square metre per annum for A grade, representing only minor changes over the year to June 2019.

With Premium grade vacancy recorded at 4.5% as at December 2018, available options for tenants in this space are becoming increasingly limited. As a result, we can expect to see incentives across these assets trend downwards which would aid in effective rental growth over the short to medium term.

OutlookTenant appetite for Prime space is increasing and we expect to see a continuation of this trend moving forward with incentives beginning to pull-back. Effective rental growth is already being seen in Premium grade space, albeit at low levels.

There are several development projects in the pipeline and after three years, with no new construction outside of Woodside’s completed headquarters, there are signs that a new development cycle is emerging. In June 2018, Chevron reported they would be moving ahead with their project with Brookfield appointed as developer to build the circa 52,000 square metre building in Elizabeth Quay. Timing on the new development is estimated to align with Chevron’s current lease expiry in 2023. Tenant ‘flight to quality’ has already driven a large gap between Prime and Secondary vacancy, and with no new buildings for at least three years, the technical vacancy rate is likely to decline.

Investment capital inflows to Perth continues and is above the long-run average suggesting that Perth remains on the radar for offshore and domestic investors. While the yield premium between Perth and the eastern seaboard still exists, Savills Research expects ongoing compression as investors seek relative value.

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Premium Grade A Grade B

680

590

390 375 305

185

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Premium Grade A Grade B

Net Face Rent Net Effective Rent Net Incentive % - rhs

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Premium Grade A Grade B

680

590

390 375 305

185

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Premium Grade A Grade B

Net Face Rent Net Effective Rent Net Incentive % - rhs

Net Effective Rents by Grade ($/sq m)



Net Face & Net Effective Rents as at Jun-19 ($/sq m)

June 2019



Perth CBD Key Indicators (Q2-19)

Premium A Grade B Grade

Low High Low High Low High

Rental - Gross Face ($/sq m) 775 900 640 815 410 635

Rental - Net Face ($/sq m) 630 725 525 650 250 525

Incentive Level Net 42 48 45 53 48 58

Rental - Net Effective ($/sq m) 320 390 245 335 120 225

Outgoings - Operating ($/sq m) 125 135 95 120 95 110

Outgoings - Statutory ($/sq m) 55 65 55 65 55 65

Outgoings - Total ($/sq m) 165 185 150 185 150 175

Typical Lease Term 5 10 5 7 3 5

Yield - Market (% Net Face Rental) 5.25 6.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 8.00

IRR (%) 6.50 7.00 6.75 7.50 7.00 8.00

Cars Permanent Reserved ($/pcm) 675 750 625 725 475 625

Cars Permanent ($/pcm) 675 750 625 725 475 625

Office Capital Values ($/sq m) 10,000 13,000 8,000 10,000 5,000 7,000

Source: Savills Research NB: All rents equivalent to whole floor mid-rise

June 2019



Key State Office Contacts

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The Savills Research & Consultancy team has years of experience, and is supported by our extensive agency, property management and valuation professionals. For national-level consultancy or subscription requirements please contact:

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Valuations Mark Foster-Key +61 (0) 8 9488 4145 [email protected]

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