Saudi Arabia’s Future: A Change in LeadershipJake Madsen, The Eurasia Center November 2017

Introduction

Saudi Arabia has enjoyed a tenured history of being both a strong American ally while also maintaining its position as an economic and military powerhouse in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s economy has historically been entirely dependent upon crude oil production and its government is a Unitary Islamic Absolute Monarchy. Yet the Kingdom has seen recent efforts by the younger generation to modernize certain social aspects in conjunction with economic reform such as divestment from oil. Mohammad Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (MBS), who was named Crown Prince in 2017 after the prior Crown Prince was removed, is an unusual figure in Saudi politics due to his ability to consolidate power at such a young age, coupled with his ambitious reforms that speak of the Saudi Arabia of tomorrow. However, his time as Minister of Defense has been hardened with an ongoing civil war in Yemen and under both his and his father’s leadership, Saudi Arabia has risen to have the fourth highest military expenditure in the world.1 Perhaps his most ambitious achievement comes in the form of Saudi Vision 2030 in which MBS has touted weeding out corruption and oil divestment as the only true way to modernize Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Vision 2030

Saudi Vision 2030 is the Kingdom’s plan to modernize the country across all sectors. It is the government’s hope that Saudi Arabia will be able to build its infrastructure into something that is more akin to Europe or the United States. Additionally, Vision 2030 stresses the need for a focus on sustainable energy and its essential role in developing the

Saudi economy of the future. Saudi Arabia is currently the largest oil producer and is attempting to prepare for a world in which oil is no longer the dominant energy source.2 However, this issue also highlights another, which is the Saudi Arabian dependency on foreign producers. Saudi Vision 2030 aims to steer the Saudi economy away from its debt brought on by rampant spending. Such programs include the “Saudization” effort which forces foreign firms working in country hire mostly Saudi workers. Additionally, in the wake of large arms deal with various US contractors, Saudi Arabia has taken steps to build its own domestic arms industry. Saudi Vision 2030 is unique in that it embraces the 21st century in an era in which the Middle East appears to be sliding backwards toward instability. However, its most important attribute is that it showcases the true power that MBS wields in the Kingdom.

Figure 1: Saudi Vision 2030 statistics

2017 Saudi Arabian Purge

Saudi Arabia has long struggled with a rampant corruption problem that appears to be ingrained in their governing class. As a result, Saudi Arabia has consistently made efforts both real and fictional to attempt to curb the greed that plagues their system. However, for the first time ever senior officials were arrested in a massive anti-corruption sting spearheaded by MBS. Analysts will argue over the reasoning behind this, but is boils down to three probable reasons. First, the Saudi government may be legitimately tired of corruption and nepotism sucking capital out of their government and into the pockets of wealthy elites. Evidence of this being that the younger generation has long complained

about this issue. Second, it may be that the objective of MBS and his governing faction is to try and cut deals with these senior officials in order to gain money to fill Saudi coffers. This scenario is possible due to the fact that the Kingdom is running a large deficit and MBS has been cutting deals with certain officials in return for billions of dollars.3 The third possible scenario is that the purge was orchestrated by MBS in order to consolidate power. This is also a strong possibility as MBS is somewhat controversial amongst the old guard of the regime and likely desires to clear a path to a peaceful ascent to King. Additionally, MBS has purged officials who are critical of US President Donald Trump who has been a strong supporter of Saudi Arabia. The truth, however, is likely a combination of all three possibilities. MBS is likely attempting a power grab with the added the bonus of recovering money from corruption. Whatever the motive, MBS is

Figure 2: Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman

now in control of all three branches of the Kingdom’s security forces which will give him a clear path to the crown.

Saudi Arabia in the Future

The Kingdom’s future looks bright if you are someone who favors reform. MBS has made it clear that his faction is working to build a new Saudi Arabia that is far more economically and socially liberal than in prior eras. While the Kingdom by no means will be radically transformed we have now entered a new era in which Saudi Arabia favors adaptation of many forms. An example being that Saudi Arabia has recently made tremendous efforts to strengthen ties with the United States in a bid to draw the hegemon back into the region. Perhaps it can be said that the sun will not set on Crown Prince’s reign for a long time for at 32 he is surely to be around long enough to accomplish all of his objectives.

Figure 3: Trump in Saudi Arabia

1"Military Balance 2014 Press Statement." IISS. Accessed December 02, 2017. http://www.iiss.org/en/about%20us/press%20room/press%20releases/press%20releases/archive/2014-dd03/february-0abc/military-balance-2014-press-statement-52d7.2 "Thriving Economy Investing for the long-term." Investing for the long-term | Saudi Vision 2030. Accessed December 02, 2017. http://vision2030.gov.sa/en/node/6.3 "Saudi anti-corruption drive: Prince Miteb freed 'after $1bn deal'." BBC News. November 29, 2017. Accessed December 02, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42161552.