brisbane capital city review - exfin.com · growth pa is 7.49% for houses & 5.99% for units....

BRISBANECAPITAL CITYREVIEW

BRISBANE

15EDITION

2

REPORTBRISBANE CAPITAL CITY

E D I T I O N 1 5


E D I T I O N 1 5

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 1%

Electricity, gas, water and waste services, 4%

Wholesale trade, 6%

Mining, 2%

Manufacturing, 8%

Construction, 12%

Accommodation and food services, 2%

Transport, postal and warehousing, 8%

Information media and telecommunications, 3%

Financial and insurance services, 10%

Rental, hiring and real estate services, 4%

Professional, scientific and technical services, 7%

Administrative and support services, 3%

Public administration and safety, 8%

Education and training, 6%

Health care and social assistance, 9%

Arts and recreation services, 1%

Retail Trade, 6%

INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN

BRISBANE AT A GLANCE

$5.5BTotal infrastructure spending is

$5.5 billion or $2459 per

person in 2018.

Based on major projects worth

$10 million or more.

AVERAGE DAYS ON

MARKET: 53 days

The Brisbane house market is showing Limited Value.

It would be best suited to a Medium Term Trading Strategy or

Long Term Hold Strategy.

We classify the Brisbane house market currently as a Medium Risk

investment.

Medium Term Strategy = 4 to 7 yearsLong Term Strategy = 10+ years

Legend

In the current stage of cycle

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.4%

HOUSE YIELD 4.3% UNDEREMPLOYMENT

RATE 9.2%UNIT

YIELD 5.1%

7.49%

LONG TERM COMPOUNDED

GROWTH PA IS 7.49%

FOR HOUSES & 5.99% FOR

UNITS.

Houses the last 5 years have

seen 3.17% PA growth, units

0.38%.

CURRENT MEDIAN

$540,600 House

(-2.9% ) on previous Quarter

$402,100 Unit

(-3.6% ) on previous Quarter

POPULATION

Current: 2,3226,656Curret Growth Rate: 2.0%LT Growth Rate: 1.9%QLD NOM: 29,349QLD NIM: 22,510QLD Natural: 29,602

3


E D I T I O N 1 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKEY INDICATOR 1 - Slightly Positive

MONEY SUPPLY: Is the money supply increasing?

State Budget

Gross State Product V. Median Price Movement

Economic Benefit V Median House Price

Business Investment

Infrastructure Spending

QLD LT Housing Finance

QLD ST Housing Finance

Coal Price V. House Price Movement

KEY INDICATOR 2 - Neutral

CONFIDENCE: Is there confidence in the market?

Retail Turnover Growth

Mortgage Arrears

Unemployment

Underemployment

Job Creation Index

State Job Vacancies

KEY INDICATOR 3 - Slightly Positive

AFFORDABILITY: Is the market affordable?

Affordability Index HOUSE V. Price Movement

Affordability Index UNITS V. Price Movement

Income Growth V. Price Movement

Price to Income ratio

FHBs as % of Population


SUPPLY & DEMAND: Does demand exceed supply?

Population

QLD Population Movement Type

Population Pyramid

Foreign Investment

Airport Arrivals

Dwelling Approvals V. Population % Change

Bedroom Approvals V. Population Change

Vacancy Rate V. Rent

Stock on Market V. Days on Market


INVESTMENT VALUE: Is there value in this market compared to other markets?

Current Investment Value - Per Capital City

Yield V. Interest Rates

Rent Growth V. Price Movement

Capital City Long Term Price Comparision House

Long Term Trends

Brisbane V. Sydney HOUSE Price Movement

Positive

Slightly Positive

Neutral

Negative

Slightly Negative

4


E D I T I O N 1 5

For more information on the Brisbane market, including individual property and suburb selections, call

to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.

OUR VIEW OF THE BRISBANEPROPERTY HOUSE MARKET

AVOID

CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE

VALUE

BRIS

BAN

E SU

BU

RB

RA

NG

E -

HO

USE

SLIMITED VALUE

The market is showing some

value opportunities. Overall, most

fundamental indicators support

growth.

VALUE

The market is showing good value on

most properties. Many fundamental

indicators exist which support strong

growth.

AVOID

The market is showing no value

and price falls in the short term are

possible. There are no fundamentals

that support price growth in the short

term.

CAUTION

The market is close to being

overvalued and/or oversupplied. We

see minimal growth over the short- to

medium-term.

P O S I T I V E

5


E D I T I O N 1 5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120% $600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

House Price Unit Price % Difference (Avg 96%)

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1997

1996

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

BRISBANE UNIT V. HOUSE PRICE COMPARISONThis graph shows the comparison between house and unit price movements and the percentage difference for each year.

112%

102%

110%

98%

105%105%

100%

104%

104%

109%

109%107%

110%

114%112%

99%

85%

80%

85%

88%

86%84% 86%85%

83%

88%85% 84% 84%

80%

74%

78%

6


E D I T I O N 1 5

For more information on the Brisbane market, including individual property and suburb selections, call

to speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.

OUR VIEW OF THE BRISBANEPROPERTY UNIT MARKET

AVOID

CAUTIONLIMITEDVALUE

VALUE

BRISBANE SUBURB RANGE - U

N

ITS

LIMITED VALUE

The market is showing some

value opportunities. Overall, most

fundamental indicators support

growth.

VALUE

The market is showing good value on

most properties. Many fundamental

indicators exist which support strong

growth.

AVOID

The market is showing no value

and price falls in the short term are

possible. There are no fundamentals

that support price growth in the short

term.

CAUTION

The market is close to being

overvalued and/or oversupplied. We

see minimal growth over the short- to

medium-term.

S L I G H T L YP O S I T I V E

7


E D I T I O N 1 5

STATE BUDGETThis graph displays the State Government position of either a surplus or deficit against the change in the capital city median house

price.

20% 5

15%

4

10%

3

5%

2

1

-5%

-1

-2

-3

-4

-10% -5

0%

0

2008200720062005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20222021

QL

D B

ud

get

($ B

illio

ns)

% C

han

ge M

ed

ian

Pri

ce

QLD Budget Median House Price

2%

7%

16%

13%

-3%

9%

-6%

-3%

4%

6%

4%

5%

1%

-1%

N E U T R A L

8


E D I T I O N 1 5

GROSS STATE PRODUCT V. MEDIAN PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph displays Gross State Product charted against the median house price. Gross State Product is the measure of final goods

and services produced in the state in a period of time.

GSP ($ Mil) Median Price

1994

1993

1992

1990

1991

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

0

$600,000 350,000

250,000

200,000

300,000

150,000

100,000

$400,000

$500,000

$200,000

$100,000

$300,000

50,000

$-

GS

P (

$M

il)

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

N E G A T I V E

9


E D I T I O N 1 5

ECONOMIC BENEFIT V.MEDIAN HOUSE PRICEThis graph displays the economic benefit per person against the median house price. Economic benefit is the ratio between State

Final Demand for the state and the state’s population. State Final Demand measures the total value of goods and services that are

sold in the state and is a measure of the state’s income.

$-

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000 $600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

Economic Benefit House Price

1995

1994

1990

1991

1992

1993

1997

1996

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Sta

te F

inal D

em

an

d /

Po

pu

lati

on

S L I G H T L YN E G A T I V E

10


E D I T I O N 1 5

BUSINESS INVESTMENTThis graph displays private business investment into the state charted against the median house price.

0

20,000

10,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000 $600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

Business Investment Median House Price

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

$, M

il

$139,000$161,600

$248,300

$350,200

$444,800

$444,600

$512,800 $540,600

$144,000$165,300

$320,500

$406,100

$485,300

$462,500

$539,700

$150,900

$194,900

$327,200

$459,300$457,700

$491,600

$545,900


11


E D I T I O N 1 5

INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDINGThis graph displays the total infrastructure spend on projects over $10 million and the spend broken down into a per person figure.

The average spend per person in Australia is $3000.

$5,000,000,000

$3,000

$2,500

$6,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000 $2,000

$3,000,000,000 $1,500

$2,000,000,000 $1,000

$1,000,000,000 $500

$- $-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Spending Spend per person

$1,325

$1,917

$2,396$2,453

$2,459

$1,703

N E U T R A L

12


E D I T I O N 1 5

QUEENSLAND HOUSING FINANCE - LONG TERMThis graph displays the total value of housing finance for the state over the long term versus the median house price.

0

150,000

100,000

50,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

400,000

350,000

450,000$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

1995

1994

1990

1991

1992

1993

1997

1996

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Ho

usi

ng

Fin

an

ce (

$, M

il)

Housing Finance House Median


13


E D I T I O N 1 5

QUEENSLAND HOUSING FINANCE - SHORT TERMThis graph displays the total value of housing finance for the state in the short term versus the median house price.

110,000

100,000

105,000

95,000

90,000

85,000

8,000

Jun 2

016

Jun 2

017

Sep

20

16

Sep

20

17

Mar

20

18

Mar

20

16

Mar

20

17

Dec

20

16

Dec

20

17

Ho

usi

ng

Fin

an

ce (

$, M

il)

$560,000

$555,000

$535,000

$540,000

$545,000

$550,000

$530,000

$525,000

$520,000

$515,000

$510,000

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Housing Finance House Median

P O S I T I V E

14


E D I T I O N 1 5

$140.0 $600,000

$80.0

$400,000

$120.0

$100.0

$500,000

$60.0

$300,000

$40.0

$200,000

$20.0$100,000

Median House Price Median Unit Price Coal Price

$- 0

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

This graph shows the relationship between the coal price and the median house price.

COAL PRICE V. MEDIAN PRICE MOVEMENT

$139,600$144,100

$150,900

$161,000$165,300

$194,900

$248,300

$320,500$327,200

$350,200

$406,100

$459,300$444,800

$485,300

$457,700

$444,600

$462,500

$491,600

$521,800

$539,700$545,900

$540,600

$42$39

$56

$53

$44$46

$68

$51

$63

$104

$118

$92

$120

$110

$89

$94

$76

$72

$117

$115

$122


15


E D I T I O N 1 5

RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTHThis graph displays levels of State retail turnover charted against the median house price.

0

30,000

20,000

10,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000 $600,000

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

1995

1994

1990

1991

1992

1993

1997

1996

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Reta

il S

pen

din

g (

$, M

il)

Retail Turnover VIC Median Hosue Price

N E U T R A L

16


E D I T I O N 1 5

MORTGAGE ARREARSThis graph displays the percentage of mortgages that are 30+ days in arrears on a state and National level from 2002 to 2018,

supplied by Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings.

2.5%

1.5%

2.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0%

Mar

20

03

Jul 2

00

3

Nov

200

3

Mar

20

04

Jul 2

00

4

Nov

200

4

Mar

20

05

Jun 2

00

5

Nov

200

5

Mar

20

06

Jun 2

00

6

Nov

200

6

Mar

20

07

Jun 2

00

7

Nov

200

7

Mar

20

08

Jun 2

00

8

Jun 2

013

Jun 2

014

Jun 2

015

Jun 2

016

Jun 2

017

Nov

200

8

Nov

2013

Nov

2014

Nov

2015

Nov

2016

Nov

2017

Mar

20

09

Mar

20

14

Mar

20

15

Mar

20

16

Mar

20

17

Mar

20

18

Jun 2

00

9

Nov

200

9

Mar

20

10

Jun 2

010

Nov

2010

Mar

20

11

Jun 2

011

Nov

2011

Mar

20

12

Jun 2

012

Nov

2012

Mar

20

13

QLD AUS

0.50%

1.50%


17


E D I T I O N 1 5

UNEMPLOYMENTThis graph displays the unemployment rate for metro, state and national as a yearly average and the current rate.

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

2.0%

0%

Brisbane Queensland

4.0%

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2016

2018

7.5

8.9

9.4

7.5

6.3

9.8

9.7

10.7

9.6

7.7

8.6

9.1

7.97.7

7.8

7.4

7.9

6.5

6.0

4.9

5.0

4.0

3.6

3.3

4.7

5.2

4.8

5.5

5.7

6.3

5.85.6

6.0

6.6

6.4

N E U T R A L

18


E D I T I O N 1 5

UNDEREMPLOYMENTThis graph shows the relationship between the state and national underemployment rate as a yearly average and the current rate.

10.0%

8.0%

9.0%

7.0%

6.0%

0.0%

Queensland National

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

1992

1991

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

7.2

8.28.0

7.8 7.7

7.9

8.78.6

8.2 8.3

8.9

8.2

8.4

7.6

7.1 7.1

6.4

5.9

8.1

7.77.9

7.7

8.1

9.09.1

8.6

9.2

8.8

N E U T R A L

19


E D I T I O N 1 5

JOB CREATION This graph shows the internet vacancy index for online job advertisements on the three major job boards.

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Apr 20

11

Jun 2

011

Jun 2

012

Jun 2

013

Jun 2

014

Jun 2

015

Jun 2

016

Jun 2

017

Aug 2

011

Aug 2

012

Aug 2

013

Aug 2

014

Aug 2

015

Aug 2

016

Aug 2

017

Oct

20

11

Oct

20

12

Oct

20

13

Oct

20

14

Oct

20

15

Oct

20

16

Oct

20

17

Dec

20

11

Dec

20

12

Dec

20

13

Dec

20

14

Dec

20

15

Dec

20

16

Dec

20

17

Feb

20

12

Feb

20

13

Feb

20

14

Feb

20

15

Feb

20

16

Feb

20

17

Feb

20

18

Apr 20

12

Apr 20

13

Apr 20

14

Apr 20

15

Apr 20

16

Apr 20

17

Apr 20

18


20


E D I T I O N 1 5

STATE JOB VACANCIESThis graph displays the number of jobs created in the private and public sectors state wide.

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

10,000

15,000

5,000

0

Jun 1989

Jun 1993

Jun 1997

Jun 2

00

1

Jun 2

00

5

Feb

20

10

Jun 2

017

Feb

20

14

Feb

1986

Feb

1990

Feb

1994

Feb

1998

Feb

20

02

Feb

20

06

Jun 2

011

Feb

20

18

Jun 2

015

Oct

1986

Oct

1990

Oct

1994

Oct

1998

Oct

20

02

Oct

20

06

Oct

20

12

Oct

20

08

Jun 1987

Jun 1991

Jun 1995

Jun 1999

Jun 2

00

3

Jun 2

00

7

Oct

20

14

Oct

20

10

Feb

1988

Feb

1992

Feb

1996

Feb

20

00

Feb

20

04

Feb

20

08

Feb

20

16

Feb

20

12

Oct

1988

Oct

1992

Oct

1996

Oct

20

00

Oct

20

04

Jun 2

00

9

Oct

20

16

Jun 2

013

Private Public


21


E D I T I O N 1 5

120%

100%

40%

80%

15%

25%

35%

60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

5%

20%

0%

AI House (QLD Income) AI House (Brisbane HH Income) Median Price Movement

0% -10%

-5%

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1982

1985

1984

1983

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

AFFORDABILITY INDEX V. PRICE MOVEMENT (HOUSE)This graph displays the relationship between affordability and its impact on house price movements. The Affordability Index (AI)

is calculated using the median price, median income, an LVR of 80% and the current interest rate. PPA’s AI is a measure of the

average mortgage repayments versus the average income.

28%

35%

-4%

26%

1%

31%

3%

31%

5%

27%

18%

32%5%

28%

38%

50%

10%

45%

0%

35% 4%

30%

15%

29%

3%

33%

0%

35%

0%

28%

4%

22%

3%

22%

5%

22%

7%

27%3%

20%

18%

24%

27%

30%

29%

39%

2%

39% 7%

41%

16%

48%

13%

60%

-3%

32%

9%

47%

-6%

41%

38%

37%

-3%

34% 4%

28%

6%

29%

4%

27%

5%

30%

3%

-1%

29% 28%29%

P O S I T I V E

22


E D I T I O N 1 5

120%

100%

60%

80%

30%

50%

60%

10%

20%

40%

40%

20%0%

Gross AI Units (Avg 31%) Median Price Movement

0%-10%

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

AFFORDABILITY INDEX V. PRICE MOVEMENT (UNIT)This graph displays the relationship between affordability and its impact on unit price movements. The Affordability Index is

calculated using the median price, median income, an LVR of 80% and the current interest rate. PPA’s AI is a measure of the

average mortgage repayments versus the average income.

28%

18%

37%

8%

33%

-2%

31%

-1%

48%

6%

55%

4%

45%

9%

37%

7%

31%

1%

29%

4%

34%

3%

37%

5%

1%

31%

4%

23%

11%

23%24%

4%

31%

10%

23%

21%

24%

9%

26%

10%

31%

13%

33%

11%

36%

-3%

41%

7%

51%

-3%

27%

0%

39%

35%

1%

29%

5%

24%

4%

24%

-1%

23%

-6%

0%

24%

21%22%


23


E D I T I O N 1 5

$600,000

$1,400

$1,800

$1,600

$500,000

$1,200$400,000

$1,000

$300,000

$800

$600$200,000

$400

$100,000

Median House Price Median Unit Price Median Weekly Income Avg Household Income

$200

$- $-

20

01

20

00

199

9

199

8

199

7

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

18

20

17

INCOME GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph shows a relationship between income growth and house price growth.

$667$694

$706$737

$782$810

$859$894

$952$982

$1,111

$1,041

$1,108

$1,184

$1,244

$1,287

$1,388

$1,346

$1,423$1,448 $1,444

$1,562

$1,498


24


E D I T I O N 1 5

PRICE TO INCOME RATIOThis graph displays the price to income ratio which is the relationship between the median house price and the average annual

income. This also represents the average time taken to save a 20% deposit when assuming 20% of the average wage is saved.

9

0

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1982

1985

1984

1983

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

5

4 4 4

4

4

44

4

4

4

4

4

5

6

7

7

7

8

8

7

7

7

6 6

7

77 7

7


25


E D I T I O N 1 5

FHBS AS A % OF POPULATION

1.00%

0.90%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.50%

0.40%

0.30%

0.20%

0.10%

0.00%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

This graph shows the percentage of first home buyers (FHB) relative to the state population.

0.73%0.72%

0.69%

0.51%

0.55%

0.50%

0.60%

0.91%

0.73%

0.61%

0.48%

0.58%

0.73%

0.76%

0.55%

0.83%

0.36%

0.45%

0.43%0.41%

0.43%

0.49%

P O S I T I V E

26


E D I T I O N 1 5

CHANGE IN POPULATIONThis graph shows the percentage change in the population growth rate for the city and Australia.

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

0.5%

0%

Brisbane Queensland Australia

1.0%

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2016

2.7%

2.8%2.8%

2.1%

1.9%

1.6%

1.9%

1.8%

2.3%

2.1%

2.0%

1.7%

1.8%

1.4%

1.6%

1.3%

1.8%

1.5%

2.0%

1.7%

P O S I T I V E

27


E D I T I O N 1 5

QUEENSLAND POPULATION MOVEMENT TYPEThis graph demonstrates the breakdown of Natural Increase, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and Net Interstate Migration (NIM)

for the state.

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

10,000

-

Natural Increase NOM NIM

20,000

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2016

P O S I T I V E

28


E D I T I O N 1 5

QUEENSLANDPOPULATION PYRAMIDThe population pyramid demonstrates the breakdown of the different ages and sex percentages of the population. The dominant

consumer base of a population is the 35 to 49 age bracketsand ideally we like to see the preceeding age brackets larger as they

age to replace the existing group.

Greater Brisbane Australia

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data).Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.

Males

4.0 4.03.0

%

3.0

%

2.0 1.0 2.01.00 0

Age in years

Females85 +

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

P O S I T I V E

29


E D I T I O N 1 5

6,000

$12,000,000,000

7,000

$14,000,000,000

$16,000,000,000

8,000 $18,000,000,000

5,000

$10,000,000,000

4,000

$8,000,000,000

3,000

$6,000,000,000

2,000$4,000,000,000

1,000$2,000,000,000

Established For Development Approval Numbers

- $-

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20172016

FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPROVALS - NEW V. ESTABLISHED PROPERTYThis graph shows foreign investment approval numbers and the dollar amount into the state’s residential market since 2005.

Approvals are broken down into established property and developed/for development.

1,435

1,726

1,093

548

1,273

1,5821,734

2,940

5,023

7,444

2,378

N E U T R A L

30


E D I T I O N 1 5

10 $600,000

4

$400,000

5

6

7

8

9

$500,000

3

$300,000

2

$200,000

1

$100,000

Domestic Arrivals International Arrivals Median House Price

0 0

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

This graph shows the numbers for International and Domestic arrivals into the city’s airport plotted against the median house price.

AIRPORT ARRIVALS V. MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

$444,800

$485,300

$457,700

$444,600

$462,500

$491,600

$512,800

$539,700 $540,600$545,900

Med

ian

Ho

use

Pri

ce

Ho

usi

ng

Fin

an

ce (

$, M

il)


31


E D I T I O N 1 5

25,000 4.50%

3.50%

4.00%

3.00%

2.50%

20,000

2.00%

15,000

1.50%

10,000

1.00%5,000

0.50%

Houses Other Dwellings Population % Change

- 0.00%

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

DWELLING APPROVALS V. POPULATIONThis graph shows the relationship between population growth and dwelling approvals in the Greater City region.

2.3%

2.5%

2.4%

2.1%

1.9%

4.1%

2.7%

2.8%

1.91%1.9%

2.3%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6%

2.0%

1.8%

12,8

64

6,7

55

13,7

62

6,1

69

11,5

72

6,5

57

9,7

79

6,6

25

10,8

81

4,8

06

13,0

54

6,3

91

11,0

18

5,4

13

9,7

27

4,6

59

10,7

22

7,4

13

7,3

27

7,2

90

7,3

54

6,0

35

7,8

80

10,5

46

10,9

98

12,2

08

11,4

45

20

,34

7

11,7

62

16,6

06

12,6

78

13,4

78

11,1

48

10,7

25

N E U T R A L

32


E D I T I O N 1 5

BEDROOM APPROVALS V. POPULATION CHANGEThis graph shows the relationship between the number of bedrooms being commenced and the change in population numbers.

PPA calculates this assuming 80% of approvals commence, and multiplying by the average household size of the city.

80,000

50,000

40,000

60,000

70,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

Population Change (Number) Approvals (80% of X 2.6)

-

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

51,826

34,702

54,077

38,240

30,383 30,871

38,301

28,278

37,871

38,91638,055

47,008

42,384

35,910

49,011

40,325

67,145

46,366

50,32151,210

59,913

N E U T R A L

33


E D I T I O N 1 5

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

House Units Vacancy Rate Inner Ring (0-5km) Vacancy Rate (Middle Ring 5-20km)

0% $-

$100

$50

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$500

$400

$450

VACANCY RATE V. RENTThis graph displays the relationship between rental growth for both houses and units and the vacancy rate.

201820172016201520142013201220112010

$364

$379

$390

$394

$399 $402 $402$391

$359

$380

$394$400

$410$416

$422$427

$452

$464

2.4%

1.6% 1.6%

2.6%

3.3% 3.3%

3.50% 3.5%

4.0%

2.6%

2.4%

2.1%

2.4%

2.0%

2.3%

3.2%

2.8%

2.1%

N E U T R A L

34


E D I T I O N 1 5

40,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Stock on Market Avg Days on Market

0 0

20

10

30

40

50

60

80

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20182017

STOCK ON MARKET V. DAYS ON MARKETThis graph displays the average days on market and stock on market since 2008.

37,500

18,910

29,100 29,100 29,080 28,700

28,100 28,150

29,20029,000

30,000

40

60

6665

58

63

67

69

5354


35


E D I T I O N 1 5

CURRENT INVESTMENT VALUEThis graph displays the gross yield for houses and units in each of the five major capital cities.

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

House Units

0%

Brisbane Adelaide Perth Melbourne Sydney

3.8%

4.9%

3.8%

5.1%

3.4%

4.2%

2.6%

4.0%

2.8%

3.8%

P O S I T I V E

36


E D I T I O N 1 5

2%

1%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0%

9%

Cash Rate Variable Rate House Yield

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

4.8%

7.8%

4.1%

4.5%

4.5%

7.5%

3.0%

4.7%

6.6%

2.8%

4.6%

5.5%

2.5%

4.4%

5.5%

2.0%

4.3%

5.0%

2.0%

4.1%

5.4%

1.5%

4.4%

5.1%

1.5%

4.3%

5.1%

YIELD V. INTEREST RATESThis graph dsplays house yields against the variable and cash rates.

N E U T R A L

37


E D I T I O N 1 5

$500

$450

$600,000

$300

$350

$400

$250

$500,000

$200

$400,000

$150

$300,000

$100

$200,000

$50

Median House Price Median Unit Price Rent House (3Bed) Rent Unit (2Bed)

$100,000

$- $-

201820172016201520142013201220112010

RENT GROWTH V. PRICE MOVEMENTThis graph displays the relationship between the median price and median rents.

$380

$364

$394

$379

$400

$390

$410

$394

$416

$399

$422

$402

$427

$402

$452

$464

$391

$359

$485,300

$402,200

$457,700

$391,900

$444,600

$390,700

$462,500

$394,600

$491,600

$413,902

$521,690

$431,800

$539,700

$429,100

$555,796$545,900

$402,100

$427,900

N E U T R A L

38


E D I T I O N 1 5

CAPITAL CITY LONG TERM PRICE COMPARISON (HOUSES)This graph displays the median price relationships between the five major capital cities in Australia.

0%

10%

20%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-50%

-40%

Current Average

-60%

Perth Adelaide

-37%

-18%

Melbourne

-55%

-37%

Sydney

4%

0%

12%

6%

P O S I T I V E

39


E D I T I O N 1 5

LONG TERM TRENDSThis graph displays the annual compounded growth rates for houses and units over the long term, and the last 10 years, 7 years,

5 years and 3 years.

8.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

LT(1980) 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr

House Unit

7.49%

5.99%

1.64%

0.36% 0.37%

2.41%

3.17%

0.38%

-2.35%

1.78%

P O S I T I V E

40


E D I T I O N 1 5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120% $1,400,000

$1,200,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$400,000

$200,000

$-

Brisbane House Median Sydney House Median % Difference (Avg 61%)

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1997

1996

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2017

BRISBANE VS. SYDNEY PRICE COMPARISION (HOUSE)This graph shows a relationship between the Brisbane median and the Sydney median and the percentage difference between

them for each year.

74%

67%

51%

61%

76%

76%

73%

77%

71%

73%

64%

54%

65%

68%

69%

71%

68%66%

63%

59%

55%54%

50%

44%

42%

46%

57%

58%

60%

66%

75%74%

70%

67%66%

63%

57%

50%50%

45%

41

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