budgeting basics and beyond (4 th edition) jae k. shim joel g. siegel allison i. shim

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BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

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BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim. CHAPTER 1 The What and Why of Budgeting: An Introduction. Budget?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND

(4th Edition)

Jae K. ShimJoel G. SiegelAllison I. Shim

Page 2: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 1THE WHAT AND WHY OF BUDGETING: AN

INTRODUCTION

Page 3: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A budget is defined as the formal expression of plans, goals, and objectives of management that covers all aspects of operations for a designated time period

A budget is a financial plan to control future operations and results

Budget?

Page 4: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Effective budgeting requires the existence of the following:

Predictive ability Clear channels of communication,

authority, and responsibility Accounting-generated accurate, reliable,

and timely information Compatibility and understandability of

information Support at all levels of the organization

from upper, middle, and lower

Effective Budgeting

Page 5: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Types of Budgets

Master Budget Static (Fixed)

Budget Flexible (Expense)

Budget Operating and

Financial Budgets Cash Budget Capital Expenditure

Budget Program Budget Incremental Budget

Rolling Budget Add-On Budget Supplemental

Budget Bracket Budget Stretch Budget Strategic Budget Activity-Based

Budget (ABB) Target Budget Probabilistic Budget Life-cycle budget

Page 6: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Setting objectives. Analyzing available resources. Negotiating to estimate budget

components. Coordinating and reviewing

components. Obtaining final approval. Distributing the approved budget.

The Budgetary Process

Page 7: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

At the beginning of the period, the budget is a plan. At the end of the period, the budget is a control instrument to assist management in measuring its performance against plan so as to improve future performance. Budgeted revenue and costs are compared to actual revenue and costs to determine variances

Actual Costs vs. Budget Costs

Page 8: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Bottom-up (Participative) versus Top-down

Advantages and Disadvantages of Budgets

Budgetary Slack: Padding the Budget

Budget Issues

Page 9: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 2STRATEGIC PLANNING AND BUDGETING: PROCESS, PREPARATION, AND CONTROL

Page 10: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Planning should link short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term goals. The objective is to make the best use of the companies’ available resources over the long term. Budgeting is simply one portion of the plan.

The plan is the set of details implementing the strategy. The plan of ex ecution is typically explained in sequential steps including costs and timing for each step. Deadlines are set.

Planning and Budgeting?

Page 11: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Strategic plans are long-term, broad plans ranging from 2 to 30 years, with 5 to 10 years being most typical

The strategic plan is the mission of the company and looks to existing and prospective products and markets. Strategic plans are designed to direct the company’s activities, priorities, and goals.

Strategic Planning

Page 12: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Short-range plans are typically for one year (although some plans are for two years). The plans examine expected earnings, cash flow, and capital expenditures

Long-term planning is usually of a broad, strategic (tactical) nature to accomplish objectives. A long-term plan is typically 5-10 years (or more) and looks at the future direction of the company. It also considers economic, po litical, and industry conditions

Short-term and Long-term Plans

Page 13: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The accuracy of budget preparation may be determined by comparing actual numbers to budget numbers in terms of dollars and units. Budget accuracy is higher when the two figures are closer to each other. Ratios showing budget accuracy include:

Sales Accuracy = Actual Sales/Budgeted Sales

Cost Accuracy = Actual Cost/Budgeted Cost Profit Accuracy = Actual Profit/Budgeted

Profit

Budget Accuracy

Page 14: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 3ADMINISTERING THE BUDGET: REPORTS,

ANALYSES, AND EVALUATIONS

Page 15: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Planning reports may be short term, looking at the company as a whole, each division, each department, and each responsibility center within the department

Control reports concentrate on performance effectiveness and areas needing improvement.

Information reports assist in planning and policy formulation. The re ports show areas of growth or contraction

Types of Reports

Page 16: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Budget reports should contain the following data:

Trends over the years Comparison to industry norms Comparison of actual to budget

with explanation and responsible party for variances. Follow-up procedures are needed for control.

More on Reports

Page 17: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Periodic Reports. These are reports prepared at regular intervals

Advance Reports. Important partial information may be reported before all information is available for a periodic report

Special Studies. Special reports are issued for a specific, nonroutine purpose

More Report Types

Page 18: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A budget manual describes how a budget is to be prepared.

The manual includes: Standardized forms, lists, and reports Instructions Format and coverage of performance

reports Administrative details Follow-up procedures

The Budget Manual

Page 19: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A budget sheet should be designed to record the information used by the op erating manager and budget preparer. The budgeting sheet should include the following information:

Historical cost records used Cost formulas Changes in operating conditions Foreseeable conditions

The Budget Sheet

Page 20: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A standing budget committee is usually responsible for overall policy relating to the budget program and for coordinating the preparation of the budget itself. This committee may consist of the president; vice presidents in charge of various functions such as sales, production, purchasing, CFO, and the controller.

The Budget Committee

Page 21: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The budget planning calendar is the schedule of activities for the development and adoption of the budget. It should include a list of dates indicating when specific information is to be provided by each information source to others.

Budget Calendar

Page 22: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 4BREAK-EVEN AND CONTRIBUTION

MARGIN ANALYSIS: PROFIT, COST, AND VOLUME CHANGES

Page 23: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

What sales volume is required to break even? What sales volume is necessary to earn a

desired profit? What profit can be expected on a given sales

volume? How would changes in selling price, variable

costs, fixed costs, and output affect profits? How would a change in the mix of products

sold affect the break-even and target income volume and profit potential?

Questions Answered by Break-even and Contribution Margin

Analysis

Page 24: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Economic analysis of new product. Labor contract negotiations. Choice of production process. Pricing policy. Location selection. Financing decisions. Make or buy decision Capital budgeting analysis.

Applications of the CVP Model

Page 25: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Sales Mix AnalysisContribution Margin Analysis and Nonprofit Organizations

CVP Analysis with Step-function Costs

CVP-based StrategiesCVP Analysis under Uncertainty

Some Applications of Contribution Margin Analysis

and “What-If” Analysis

Page 26: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The selling price per unit is constant throughout the entire relevant range of activity.

All costs are classified as fixed or variable. The variable cost per unit is constant. There is only one product or a constant sales

mix. Inventories do not change significantly from

period to period. Volume is the only factor affecting variable

costs.

Assumptions Underlying Break-even and Contribution

Margin Analysis

Page 27: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 5PROFIT PLANNING: TARGETING AND

REACHING ACHIEVABLE GOALS

Page 28: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Profits are planned, they just do not happen. Profit planning involves setting realistic and attainable profit objectives and targets, and then accomplishing them

Profit Planning

Page 29: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The objective must be definite and specific

An objective states what is going to be done. The objective must be clear, quantifiable, compatible, practical, strong, realistic, and attainable (not too easy or too difficult). A general and vague objective is of little value. The objective should be in writing

Objectives in the Profit Plan

Page 30: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 6MASTER BUDGET: GENESIS OF

FORECASTING AND PROFIT PLANNING

Page 31: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Master Budget Flowchart Structure

Page 32: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Obviously these budgets cannot be prepared independently. Production is scheduled to meet the sales demand. Materials, labor, and factory overhead costs are related to production. Selling and administrative ex penses are based on sales. Cash receipts and disbursements can be esti mated only after sales revenue and costs are known. It is obvious that all of these separate budgets must be closely coordinated.

Master (Comprehensive) Budgeting

Page 33: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Sales planning and forecasting often are confused. Although related, they have distinctly different purposes.

A forecast is not a plan; rather it is a statement and/or a quantified assessment of future conditions about a particular subject (e.g., sales revenue) based on one or more explicit assumptions.

A sales plan incorporates management decisions that are based on the forecast, other inputs, and management judgments about such related items as sales volume, prices, sales effects, production, and financing.

Sales Planning Compared with Forecasting

Page 34: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Types of Budgets

Sales budget Production budget Materials

requirement budget Materials purchases

budget Direct labor budget Factory overhead

costs budget

Selling and administrative expenses budget

Cash budget Budgeted income

statement Budgeted balance

sheet

Page 35: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

       Expected   Desired  Production

= Planned sales

+ Ending — Beginning inventory

Volume   Inventory         

The Production Budget

Page 36: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 7COST BEHAVIOR:

EMPHASIS ON FLEXIBLE BUDGETS

Page 37: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

An understanding of cost -behavior is helpful to managers for four reasons:Flexible budgetingBreak-even and contribution margin analysisAppraisal of divisional performanceShort-term choice decisions

An understanding of cost -behavior is helpful to

managers for four reasons:

Page 38: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

VARIABLE COSTS. Variable costs, also known as engineered costs, vary in total with changes in volume or level of activity

FIXED COSTS. Fixed costs do not change in total regardless of the volume or level of activity

MIXED (SEMI-VARIABLE) COSTS. As previously discussed, mixed costs contain both a fixed element and a variable one.

Costs by Behavior

Page 39: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Since the mixed costs contain both fixed and variable elements, the analysis takes the following mathematical form, which is called a flexible budget formula:

Y = a + bXwhere Y = the mixed cost to be broken up (dependent variable).

X = any given measure of activity (cost driver) such as direct labor hours, machine hours, or production volume (independent variable).

a = the fixed cost component (constant). b = the variable rate per unit of X (slope).

Analysis of Mixed (Semi-variable) Costs

Page 40: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

An alternative format of income statement, known as the contribution income statement, organizes the costs by behavior rather than by function. It shows the relationship of variable costs and fixed costs a given cost item is associated with, regardless of the functions.

The Contribution Income Statement

Page 41: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Contribution margin is available to cover fixed costs.

The statement highlights the concept of contribution margin, which is the difference between sales and variable costs. The traditional format, on the other hand, emphasizes the concept of gross margin, which is the difference between sales and cost of goods sold.

More on Contribution Income

Page 42: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 8EVALUATING PERFORMANCES: THE USE

OF VARIANCE ANALYSIS

Page 43: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Variance analysis compares standard to actual costs or performances

There are two types of variances: material and immaterial

Variances

Page 44: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Standard cost, which is the predetermined cost of manufacturing, servicing, or marketing an item during a given future period. It is based on current and projected conditions. This norm is also dependent upon quantita tive and qualitative measurements (e.g., working conditions).

Defining a Standard Cost

Page 45: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

There are four types of standards Basic. These are not changed from period to

period Maximum efficiency. These are perfect

standards, which assume ideal, optimal conditions

Currently attainable. These are based on efficient activity

Expected. These are expected figures, which should come very close to actual figures

Setting Standards

Page 46: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Three cost measures: Quantity per unit of work times

actual units of work produced Standard cost equals standard price

times standard quantity, where standard quantity equals standard quantity per unit of work times actual units of work produced.

Total cost variance equals actual cost less standard cost

Cost Variances

Page 47: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The flexible budget is geared toward a range of activities rather than a single level of activity. A flexible budget employs budgeted figures at different capacity levels. It allows you to choose the best expected (normal) capacity level (100%) and to assign pessimistic (80%), optimistic (110%), and full (150%) capacity levels

Flexible Budgets

Page 48: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 9MANUFACTURING COSTS: SALES

FORECASTS AND REALISTIC BUDGETS

Page 49: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

In order to budget for manufacturing costs, a production budget needs to be established, which in turn requires a sales budget.

Manufacturing costs are subdivided into direct materials, direct labor, and factory overhead.

Manufacturing Cost Budgets

Page 50: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

After determining the number of units to be produced, the company prepares the materials requirement budget and the materials purchase budget. Purchase of materials depends on production requirements and inventories. The direct materials budget involves a balancing of raw material needed for production, the raw material inventory balances, and the purchase of raw materials. The budget may provide for allowances for waste and spoilage.

Planning and Control of Material Purchases and

Usage

Page 51: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 10MARKETING: BUDGETING SALES, ADVERTISING, AND DISTRIBUTION

Page 52: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The sales budget is the starting point in preparing the master budget, since estimated sales volume influences nearly all other items appearing in the master budget. The sales budget, which ordinarily indicates the quantity of each product expected to be sold, allows all departments to plan their needs.

Sales Budget

Page 53: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Sales forecasts are especially crucial aspects of many financial management activities, including budgets, profit planning, capital expenditure analysis, and acquisition and merger analysis. It is the key to other forecasts and plans.

Sales Forecasts

Page 54: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Percentage of sales or profit

Unit sales methodObjective-task method

Budgeting Advertising

Page 55: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Trend in advertising cost to sales Advertising cost per unit sold Advertising cost per sales dollars Advertising cost per customer Advertising cost per transaction Advertising cost by product, media, and

territory

Measures of Advertising

Page 56: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 11RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT: BUDGETS

FOR A LONG-TERM PLAN

Page 57: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Research and development (R&D) is needed to develop new products and services or to significantly improve existing ones in order to remain competitive and grow

Research and Development (R&D)

Page 58: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The R&D budget may be based on:Estimated cost of specific projectsA percentage of expected salesA percentage of current year and/or prior year salesA percentage of profitA percentage of operating incomeA percentage of investment in capital assetsA percentage of cash flowR&D per unit

The R&D Budget

Page 59: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

There are direct and indirect costs associated with R&D projects

Any project limitations have to be noted

In R&D, individual projects have to be planned, appraised, and controlled

Costs and Planning

Page 60: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 12GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS: BUDGETS FOR MAXIMUM PRODUCTIVITY

Page 61: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Administrative departments include general administration, personnel, accounting, legal, insurance, computer services, and treasury. Administration is personnel existing because of the organization structure. Examples are office managers and staff.

General and Administrative Expenses

Page 62: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

In the nonmanufacturing functions of a business (such as general administration, R&D, marketing, and product engineering), the most significant expense usually is salaries. Some companies have developed formal procedures for projecting and controlling such expenses. These methods are known as headcount forecast algorithms.

Headcount Forecasting

Page 63: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 13CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: ASSETS TO BE

BOUGHT, SOLD, AND DISCARDED

Page 64: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Capital expenditures include replacing machinery to economize on costs, expanding production to increase volume, marketing of a new product, improving the quality of products or services, and manufacturing under proposed contracts. Capital expenditures should take into account current and needed facilities. Commitments must also be considered.

Capital Expenditures

Page 65: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The four steps in the capital expenditure budgetary process are:Approving the projectApproving the estimateAuthorizing the projectFollow-up

Capital Budget Process

Page 66: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 14FORECASTING AND PLANNING: REDUCING

RISK IN DECISION MAKING

Page 67: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Forecasts are needed for marketing, production, purchasing, manpower, and financial planning. Further, top management needs forecasts for planning and implementing long-term strategic objectives and planning for capital expenditures. More specifically, marketing managers use sales forecasts to determine optimal sales force allocations, set sales goals, and plan promotions and advertising. Market share, prices, and trends in new product development are also required.

Who Uses Forecasts?

Page 68: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Sales Forecasts and Managerial Functions

Page 69: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Qualitative approach—forecasts based on judgment and opinionExpert opinionsDelphi techniqueSales force pollingConsumer surveys

Qualitative Forecasting Methods

Page 70: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

a. Forecasts based on historical dataNaive methodsMoving averageExponential smoothingTrend analysisClassical decompositionb. Associative (causal) forecastsSimple regressionMultiple regressionEconometric modeling

Quantitative Forecasting Methods

Page 71: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 15MOVING AVERAGES AND SMOOTHING

TECHNIQUES: QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING

Page 72: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Naive modelsMoving averagesExponential smoothing

Quantitative Forecasting

Page 73: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Exponential smoothing is a popular technique for short-run forecasting by managers. It uses a weighted average of past data as the basis for a forecast. The procedure gives heaviest weight to more recent information and smaller weight to observations in the more distant past. The reason is that the future is more dependent on the recent past than on the distant past.

The method is known to be effective when there is randomness and no seasonal fluctuations in the data. One disadvantage of the method, however, is that it does not include industrial or economic factors such as market conditions, prices, or the effects of competitors’ actions.

Exponential Smoothing

Page 74: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 16REGRESSION ANALYSIS: POPULAR SALES

FORECAST SYSTEM

Page 75: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The least-squares method is widely used in regression analysis for estimating the parameter values in a regression equation. The regression method includes all the -observed data and attempts to find a line of best fit. To find this line, a technique called the least-squares method is used.

Least-Squares Method

Page 76: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R2)

Standard error of the estimate (Se) and prediction confidence interval

Standard error of the regression coefficient (Sb) and t-statistic

Regression Statistics

Page 77: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Excel has an easy-to-use regression routine. To utilize Excel 2010, for example, for regression analysis, three steps need to be followed:Click the Data menu.Click Data Analysis.Click Regression.

Using Regression on Excel

Page 78: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Excel on Regression

Page 79: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

SUMMARY OUTPUT                         

Regression Statistics

          

Multiple R 0.7800           R Square 0.6084           Adjusted R Square

0.5692           

Standard Error

2.3436           

Observations

12           

                Coeffici

entsStandard Error

t Stat P-value

*

Lower 95%

Upper 95%  

Intercept 10.583643

2.1796 4.8558

0.0007

5.7272 15.4401

 

DLH 0.563197

0.1429 3.9414

0.0028

0.2448 0.8816

 

*The P-value for X Variable = .0028 indicates that we have a 0.28% chance that the true value of the variable coefficient is equal to 0, implying a high level of accuracy about the estimated value of 0.563197.

Regression Output

Page 80: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 17CASH BUDGETING AND FORECASTING

CASH FLOW: TWO PRAGMATIC METHODS

Page 81: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A forecast of cash collections and potential write-offs of accounts receivable is essential in cash budgeting and in judging the appropriateness of current credit and discount policies. The critical step in making such a forecast is estimating the cash collection and bad debt percentages to be applied to sales or accounts receivable balances.

Cash Flow Forecasting

Page 82: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The cash budget presents the amount and timing of the expected cash inflow and outflow for a designated time period. It is a tool for cash planning and control and should be detailed so that your know how much is needed to run your business

The Cash Budget

Page 83: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The cash receipts section, which is cash collections from customers and other cash receipts such as royalty income and investment income.

cash disbursements section, which comprises all cash payments made by purpose.

cash surplus or deficit section, which simply shows the difference between the total cash available and the total cash needed including a minimum cash balance if required

financing section, which provides a detailed account of the borrowings, repayments , and interest payments

Cash Budget Components

Page 84: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 18FINANCIAL MODELING: TOOLS FOR BUDGETING AND PROFIT PLANNING

Page 85: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A financial model is one in which:One or more financial variables appears (expenses, revenues, investment, cash flow, taxes, and earnings).The model user can manipulate (set and alter) the value of one or more financial variables.The purpose of the model is to influence strategic decisions by revealing to the decision maker the implications of alternative values of these financial -variables.

A Financial Model

Page 86: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The use of financial modeling, especially a computer-based financial modeling system, is in wide use. The simple reason is the growing need for improved and quicker support as a decision support system (DSS) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) and wide and easy availability of computer software.

Use of Financial Modeling in Practice

Page 87: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 19USING SOFTWARE PACKAGES AND E-

BUDGETING: COMPUTER-BASED MODELS, AND SPREADSHEETS, AND

WEB-BASED SYSTEM SOFTWARE

Page 88: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Spreadsheet programs such as Excel and a stand-alone package such as Up Your Cash Flow can be used to develop a financial model. These packages are an effective tool for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis is a "what-if" technique that examines how a result will change if the original predicted data are not achieved or if an underlying assumption changes. to For illustrative purposes, we present some examples of projecting an income statement.

Use of a Spreadsheet Program for Financial Modeling and

Budgeting

Page 89: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A Rolling budget, often called continuous or perpetual budget is a 12-month (four-quarter) budget that rolls forward one month (or quarter) as the current month (or quarter) is completed. In other words, one month (or quarter) is added to the end of the budget as each month (or quarter) comes to a close. This approach keeps managers focused at least one year ahead so that they do not become too narrowly focused on short-term results. Also, markets are changing so fast that the traditional budget is quickly out of date within weeks of its publication. Many companies adopt a rolling-forecast process so that budget allocations can be constantly adjusted to meet changing market conditions.

Construction of a Rolling Budget

Page 90: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Six-Month Budget (March through August)  March April May June July August Total

Sales$210,0

00 $216,0

00 $224,0

00 $208,0

00 $190,0

00 $180,00

0 $1,228,0

00 Cost of goods sold

84,000 86,400 89,600 83,200 76,000 72,000$491,200

Gross margin126,00

0129,60

0134,40

0124,80

0114,00

0108,000$736,800

Selling expenses

52,000 53,000 55,000 51,000 49,000 47,000 307,000

G&A expenses 26,000 27,000 27,000 25,000 24,000 24,000 153,000Operating income

48,000 49,600 52,400 48,800 41,000 37,000 276,800

Interest expenses

1,000 1,000 1,200 1,200 900 900 6,200

Income (before taxes)

47,000 48,600 51,200 47,600 40,100 36,100 270,600

Income taxes (40%) 18,800 19,440 20,480 19,040 16,040 14,440 108,240

Net income$28,20

0 $29,16

0 $30,72

0 $28,56

0 $24,06

0 $21,660 $162,360

Rolling Budget Example 1

Page 91: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Revised Six-Month rolling Budget (April through September)

  April May June July AugustSeptem

berTotal

Sales$220,0

00 $225,0

00 $210,0

00 $192,0

00 $182,0

00 $195,00

0 $1,224,

000 Cost of goods sold

88,000 90,000 84,000 76,800 72,800 78,000$489,60

0

Gross margin132,00

0135,00

0126,00

0115,20

0109,20

0117,000

$734,400

Selling expenses

53,000 55,000 51,000 49,000 47,000 50,100 305,100

G&A expenses 27,000 27,000 25,000 24,000 24,000 25,000 152,000Operating income

52,000 53,000 50,000 42,200 38,200 41,900 277,300

Interest expenses

1,000 1,000 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,100 6,500

Income (before taxes)

51,000 52,000 48,800 41,100 37,100 40,800 270,800

Income taxes (40%) 20,400 20,800 19,520 16,440 14,840 16,320 108,320

Net income$30,60

0 $31,20

0 $29,28

0 $24,66

0 $22,26

0 $24,480

$162,480

Rolling Budget Example 2

Page 92: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The e in e-budgeting stands for both electronic and enterprisewide; employees throughout an organization, at all levels and around the globe, can submit and retrieve budget information electronically via the Internet.

Budgeting software is utilized and made available on the Web (in a cloud computing environment), so that budget information electronically submitted from any location is in a consistent companywide format.

E-budgeting

Page 93: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

There are much user-oriented software specifically designed for corporate planners, treasurers, budget preparers, managerial accountants, CFOs, and business analysts.

Web-based (Web-enabled) Intranet or Internet Cloud computing Enterprise Resource Management

(ERM)

E-budgeting Software

Page 94: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 20CAPITAL BUDGETING: SELECTING THE

OPTIMUM LONG-TERM INVESTMENT AND REAL OPTIONS

Page 95: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Rate of return Budget ceiling Probability of success Competition Tax rate Dollar amounts Time value of money Risk Liquidity Long-term business strategy Forecasting errors

Factors to Consider in Determining Capital

Expenditures

Page 96: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Payback Period Payback Reciprocal Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of return (IRR) Probability Index

Evaluation Methods

Page 97: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Almost all capital budgeting proposals can be viewed as real options. Also, projects and operations contain implicit options, such as the option as to when to take a project, the option to expand, the option to abandon, and the option to suspend or contract operations. Deciding when to take a project is called the investment timing option.

Real Options

Page 98: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Several methods to incorporate risk into capital budgeting areSimulationSensitivity analysisDecision (probability) trees

Other means of adjusting for uncertainty includeDecreasing the expected life of an investmentUse of pessimistic estimates of cash flowComparison of the results of optimistic, pessimistic, and best-guess estimates of cash flows

Capital Budgeting under Risk

Page 99: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 21BUDGETING FOR COST MANAGEMENT: ACTIVITY-BASED BUDGETING AND LIFE-

CYCLE BUDGETING

Page 100: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

In contrast to functional budgeting, Activity-based Budgeting (ABB) is activity-oriented. Activity-based budgets focus on the budgeted cost of activities required to produce and sell products and services. An activity-based budgetary system emphasizes the planning and control purpose of cost management.

Activity-Based Budgeting

Page 101: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

  Quarter  Year

1st 2nd 3rd 4thUnit-Level CostsUnits 18,000 9,600 13,800 21,600 63,000 Indirect material ($.20 per unit) $3,600 $1,920 $2,760 $4,320 $12,600 Electricity ($.18 per unit) 3,240 1,728 2,484 3,888 11,340Total unit-level costs $6,840 $3,648 $5,244 $8,208 $23,940 Batch-Level CostsProduction runs 30 16 23 36 105 Setup ($110 per run) $3,300 $1,760 $2,530 $3,960 $11,550 Purchasing and material handling ($125 per unit)

3,750 2,000 2,875 4,500 13,125

Inspection ($75 per run) 2,250 1,200 1,725 2,700 7,875

Total batch-level costs $9,300 $4,960 $7,130 $11,16

0 $32,550

Product-Level Costs+A42Engineering designs 3 3 3 3 12Design ($600 per design) $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 $7,200

Total product-level costs $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 $7,200 Facility-Level Costs

Supervisory salaries $14,00

0 $14,00

0 $14,00

0 $14,00

0 $56,000

Insurance 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 5,600Property taxes 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000Maintenance 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 10,400Utilities 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 10,000Depreciation 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 60,000

Total facility‑level costs$36,50

0 $36,50

0 $36,50

0 $36,50

0 $146,00

0

Total Factory Overhead $54,44

0 $46,90

8 $50,67

4 $57,66

8 $209,69

0

ABB Example

Page 102: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A relatively recent focus of the budgeting process is to plan for all of the costs that will be incurred throughout a product's life cycle, before a commitment is made to the product. Product life-cycle costs encompass the following three phases in a product's life cycle. Development (product planning, concept designpreliminary design. detailed design, and testing)Manufacturing (conversion activities)Logistics (distribution and customer service)

Life-cycle Budgeting

Page 103: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Budgeted CostsItem

Item   2X12 2X13 2X14 Total

Units produced

40,000 60,000 Development costs $195,000 $195,000

Manufacturing costs

240,000

360,000

600,000

Logistics costs   80,000

120,000

200,000

Annual subtotal $195,000 $320,000 $480,000$995,000

After-purchase costs   80,000

120,000

200,000

Annual total $195,000 $400,000 $600,000$1,195,0

00

Life-cycle Budget Example

Page 104: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Kaizen budgeting incorporates expectations for continuous improvement into budgetary estimates. Kaizen costing determines target cost reductions for a period, such as a month. Thus, variances are the differences between actual and targeted cost reduction. The objective is to reduce actual costs below standard costs.

Kaizen Budgeting

Page 105: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 22ZERO-BASE BUDGETING: PRIORITY

BUDGETING FOR BEST RESOURCE ALLOCATION

Page 106: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

ZBB begins with a zero balance and formulates objectives to be achieved. All activities are analyzed for the current year. The manager may decide to fund an existing project as last year after his or her yearly review. However, it is most likely that funding will be increased or decreased based on new information. It is also possible that an alternative way may be used for that project based on current cost or time considerations

Zero-base Budgeting

Page 107: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Developing assumptionsRanking proposalsAppraising and controllingPreparing the budget Identifying and evaluating decision units

ZBB Process

Page 108: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 23MANAGERS’ PERFORMANCE AND

BALANCED SCORECARD: EVALUATION ON THE DIVISION LEVEL

Page 109: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

With responsibility must come authority to carry out decisions. Profit planning requires that managers be held accountable for their results as long as they have authority over the items in question. If responsibility is assigned without authority, the profit planning system fails and manager frustration occurs.

Responsibility

Page 110: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Responsibility accounting is the system for collecting and reporting revenue and cost information by areas of responsibility.

It operates on the premise that managers should be held responsible for their performance, the performance of their subordinates, and all activities within their responsibility center.

Responsibility Accounting

Page 111: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Responsibility centers can be one of the following types:

Cost center. A cost center is the unit within the organization which is responsible only for costs

Investment center. An investment center is the unit within the organization which is held responsible for the costs, revenues, and related investments made in that center

Profit center. A profit center is the unit which is held responsible for the revenues earned and costs incurred in that center

Responsibility Centers

Page 112: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

A Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a set of performance measures --constructed for four dimensions of performance. Financial CustomerInternal processesLearning and growth.

The Balanced Scorecard

Page 113: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

  Description Measures Financial

 

Is the company achieving

its financial goals?

 Operating incomeReturn on assetsSales growthCash flow from operationsReduction of administrative expense

 Customer

Is the company meeting customer expectations?

 Customer satisfactionCustomer retentionNew customer acquisitionMarket shareOn-time deliveryTime to fill orders

 Internal Processes

 Is the company improving critical internal processes?

 Defect rateLead timeNumber of suppliersMaterial turnoverPercent of practical capacity

 Learning and Growth

 Is the company improving its ability to innovate?

 Amount spent on employee trainingEmployee satisfactionEmployee retention Number of new productsNew product sales as a percent of total salesNumber of patents 

Balanced Scorecard Dimensions

Page 114: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Web resources that you can log on to learn more about industry “best practices” or examples of successful implementations at other firms when developing measurement programThe Balanced Scorecard Institute (www.balancedscorecard.org). American Productivity and Quality Center (www.apqc.org). Management Help (www.managementhelp.org). Performance Measurement Association (PMA) (www.performanceportal.org).

Balanced Scorecard –Web Resources

Page 115: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 24BUDGETING FOR SERVICE

ORGANIZATIONS: SPECIAL FEATURES

Page 116: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

There are two reasons why special attention should be devoted to budgetary planning and control techniques in the service industry

First, planning and control are critical functions in all business, whether they produce and sell goods or provide services. Many service businesses have become more competitive in recent years

Second, the practice of budgeting is probably not as well developed in service companies as it is in manufacturing firms

Why Service industries?

Page 117: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

• A profit or target for the company is established.• An annual plan is developed that indicates

expected revenues and expenses by the organizational segments and in total, by month.

• The cash budget is established.• A planned statement of financial position is

developed and tested against selected standards.• Actual performance is measured against plan by

specific levels of management position.• Corrective action is taken as deemed necessary.

Common Six-step Pattern

Page 118: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 25BUDGETING FOR NONPROFIT

ORGANIZATIONS: DIVERSE TYPES

Page 119: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Nonprofit organizations can be broken down into three major types

The first is comprised of voluntarily supported organizations, such as hospi tals, churches, colleges, foundations, health and welfare agencies, and privately funded schools

The second type includes organizations supported through tax assessments, such as government units and state-supported schools

The third type operates primarily for the benefit of its supporters, such as cooperatives, country clubs, and other community-based organizations.

Nonprofit Organizations

Page 120: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

The objective of financial reporting is accountability to the public rather than to investors. There is no profit distribution. The accounting equation associated with fund accounting is: Assets = Restrictions on Assets. A nonprofit entity may have a surplus or deficit depending on whether revenues exceed expenditures

Objective Of Financial Reporting

Page 121: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

CHAPTER 26USING MANAGEMENT GAMES

FOR EXECUTIVE TRAINING

Page 122: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Improve decision making and analytical skills Facilitate participants’ understanding of the external

environment simulated Interactively apply the knowledge, concepts, and skills

acquired in various business courses Develop awareness of the need to make decisions without

complete -information Improvise appropriately and adapt constructively from

previously learned concepts, theories, and techniques Develop ability to recognize the need for additional

factual material Develop an understanding of the interrelationships of the

various functions within the firm and how these interactions affect overall performance

Some Goals of Management Games

Page 123: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Students use a Capstone spreadsheet, called capstone.xls, to create and analyze decision tactics in each round. Capstone.xls provides the capability to evaluate alternate worst-case/best-case scenarios, to help students optimize planning.

The Strategy menu in the capstone.xls spreadsheet is organized around several primary functional areas:Research and Development (R&D)MarketingProductionFinance

Several additional optional modules include:Total Quality ManagementHuman ResourcesLabor Contract NegotiationAdvanced Marketing

The Capstone Business Simulation

Page 124: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

Sample Individual Participant Results Report

Page 125: BUDGETING BASICS AND BEYOND (4 th  Edition) Jae K. Shim Joel G. Siegel Allison I. Shim

END OF PRESENTATION