building construct economics ii

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Polytechnic of Namibia

TERMS OF REFERENCE

Development of course materials for the MICOA Project

COURSE: URBAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION ECONOMICS 2

1 Objectives of the Task

The consultant must develop and compile teaching and learning materials for the courseURBAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION ECONOMICS 2 for MICOA, Mozambique,according to the specifications and draft syllabus in Section 4 of this Terms ofReference. The consultant must:

Develop and compile the study material for the course as described in the syllabus inSection 4 below.

Compile tutorial material, exercises and assignments for the course. Develop datasets required for practical exercises and case studies included in the

tutorial and assignment document. Compile a list of recommended further reading material per topic. Include all references used per topic.

The consultant is encouraged to be innovative in order to give a personal professionaltouch and experience to enhance the learning outcomes of this course.

2 Format of the study guides

Language: English Format: Microsoft Word Margins: Left and right margins must be 30mm, with 25mm top and bottom Font: Arial size 11, single spacing

Number of pages: minimum 90 pages of reading text without

assignments/exercises/case studies, or minimum 120 pages inclusive ofassignments/exercises/case studies. Binding: no spiral binding will be accepted

All sources, including figures, charts and tables, must be properly referenced if notowned by the consultant

The Polytechnic will supply an example of a study guide, and/or a digital template, butthis should be used only as a guide.

3 Expected deliverables from the consultant

The consultant must deliver the following for the course:

Two bounded copies of each study guide per course All datasets needed for practical exercises and case studies where applicable per

course A CD/DVD ROM of softcopies of all the course material developed.

The Polytechnic of Namibia will retain full ownership, including full ownership of copyright, of all study material developed under this project.

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4 Draft syllabus of the course to be developed

Course Name URBAN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTIONECONOMICS 2

3RD Year Contact Hours:54

Contents 1.0.0 VALUE AND INVESTMENT

1.1.0 The concept of value and investment

The cornerstone of the economic theory of value is that an object must bescarce relative to demand so that it can have value.

Value in economics has a specific meaning which distinguishes it from priceand cost. Value represents the monetary worth of a property, good or serviceto a buyer or seller. Types of value include Market value, Use value,Investment value, Going concern value, Insurance value, Assessed value.Value is extrinsic to the commodity or good to which it is ascribed. Typically

four independent factors create value Utility, scarcity, Desire and effectivepurchasing power.

Price is the actual figure at which an item exchanges hands. It is anaccomplished fact.

Cost is used in relation to production, not exchange. It may either be anaccomplished fact of a current estimate.

Price is an indication of value, where as value is an function of cost

1.2.0 Factors affecting property demand, Investment

1. Location2. Population changes3. Changes in standards of living or taste4. Inflation trends5. Availability of finance6. Government policies7. Changes in communication8. Nature of adjoining buildings, services/uses9. Changes in society10. Population movement11. Changes in social services

12. Security

1.3.0 Characteristics of property1. Relative durability2. Can be used over a long period of time3. Factors that affect desirability to invest in property4. Degree of security5. Regularity of payment6. Period of investment

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7. Ease of convertibility of capital8. Cost of acquiring and disposing off.9. Inflation tendencies10. Taxation methods

1.4.0 Differences between property investment and other forms of investment No central market for comparison of prices like a stoke exchange. Not possible to divide property into small units like shares Management of property creates problems Income from property can normally be varied after long leases.

2.0.0 CONSTRUCTION OF VALUATION TABLES (refer Roy Pilcher)

These assist to find a suitable way of investing resources among alternatives.Valuation tables are used in cost planning calculations, especially in situationswhere returns are spread over a number of years or the calculations involveinitial capital cost, annual running and maintenance costs, with possiblereplacement costs at intervals throughout the life of product or service.

Before making a decision concerning investment in any major project,organizations need to consider the following sots and benefits:

Initial cost of investment Running costs Estimated financial return/savings arising Degree of risk involved.

Symbols and definitions

P = Initial amount of money invested

i = initial rate per unit of time.

n = time, the number of units of time over which interest accumulates.

I = Simple interest, total sum paid for the use of money at simple interest.

F = Compound amount, sum of money earned at the end of n units at interest

i. It is made up of Principle + Interest payable.

A = Uniform series of end of period payment or receipts that extend for n

periods.

S = Salvage value or resale value at the end of n years.

2.1.0 Simple interest

I = (Principle)(Interest rate)(Time)

I = Pin

2.2.0 Compound interest

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The process of paying interest on interest as well as on the initial investment.

F = P(1 + i) n

The factor (1 + i) n is known as the simple payment compound factor.

2.3.0 Present worth

Rearranging F = P (1 + i) n to make P the subject.

P = F(1 + i) -n

The formula establishes the principle that must be placed for n periods @interest i in order to generate an amount F at the time.The factor (1 + i) -n is known as the present worth factor.

2.4.0 Uniform series

A series of equal payments made at the end of equal periods is called anannuity. Firstly a payment can be made at the end of each period at interest atinterest i and the payments allowed to gather interest when the final sum willaccumulate. F is the sum of compounded amounts of each individual payment.

An amount invested at the end of the first period will earn interest rate (n-1)years.

F = A [(1+i) n 1]i

(1+i) n 1]

iThis is known as the Uniform series compound amount factor

A = i .F [(1+i) n 1]

Thus the amount A to be invested at the end of each period in order to producea specific amount at the end of n periods can be calculated for a given interestperiod. Such a fund is called a sinking fund and

i .(1+i) n 1

is known as the Uniform series sinking deposit factor

2.5.0 Capital recovery

A = P [ i (1 + i) n ](1 + i) n - 1

i (1 + i) n

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(1 + i) n 1is known as the Uniform series capital recovery factor. This is equal to sinkingfund factor plus interest rate.

P = A [ (1 + i) n - 1 ]i (1 + i) n

This is the uniform series present worth

(1 + i) n - 1i (1 + i) n

is the uniform series present worth factor.

3.0.0 CAPITAL INVESTMENT APPRAISAL

This is a situation in which an organizations funds to be committed to projectswhich will return profits during future periods are evaluated.

Capital = principal or initial amount.Investment = outflow of cash in return of anticipated flow of future returns.

Investment appraisal methods only act as guide; they do not give definitedecisions. Decisions dont spring from a formula but other factors e.g.personnel, social, financial, etc.

3.1.0 Traditional methods of investment

3.1.1 Payback periodThis has an aim of determining the number of years which it takes to pay

back the original investment from profits arising from the investment.Projects can be considered on the accept or reject basis depending on thepay back period.

Disadvantages of using the payback method

1. It takes no account of the timing of cash flows2. Negative cash flows may be ill defined.3. It does not allow for the time value of money

3.1.2 Rate of return on capital (Accounting rate of return ARR)ARR is concerned with profits rather than cash flows. Annual profit is

expressed as a percentage of the capital required to produce thatprofit. Investment is taken as the initial outlay on the project, whileprofit is calculated as an average annual figure after deduction ofdepreciation, operating costs and expenses over the life of the project.Projects can be considered on the accept or reject basis depending onthe minimum target set.

The ARR is calculated as follows

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Average net profit (after depreciation) x 100%Original capital investment

Disadvantages of using the Rate of return on capital method

It takes no account of the timing of cash flows

It does not take into account that the initial investment might vary fromyear to year, neglecting the higher returns in the earlier years.

It ignores the possibility of differing lengths of project lives.

3.2.0 Discounted cash flow (DCF)Operates on the principle that he sum of money received today isworth more than the same money received on a latter date. Interest isa reward for foregoing the use of money or payment for its use. Theprinciple works on the disadvantages of traditional methods of capitalinvestment appraisal. DCF has two principle advantages

1. They take account of the time value of money where incomes andexpenditures may vary over the anticipated life of the project.

2. The significant effects of investment incentives and taxation can beallowed for.

3.2.1 Net present value (NPV)

Given a choice between $3000 now or in ten years, you would take it nowbecause the cash can be invested. By rearranging the compound interestformula, its possible to calculate the present value of money to be received infuture.

F = P(1 + i) n

If the present value of inflows is greater than the present value of outflows, theproject is regarded as being economically worthwhile, though furtherconsiderations are needed.

3.2.2 Equivalent annual

Future cash flows are first discounted at a predetermined rate of interest to findtheir NPV. The present value is then divided by the sum of the discountedfactors known as the cumulative discounted factor for the life of the project tofind the equivalent annual cost.

3.2.3 Internal rate of return (IRR)

In the NPV method, when the result is positive it means that the return isgreater than the interest rate used. The IRR of the project is the rate ofdiscount that, when applied to the project cash flows, it produces a zero (0)NPV. Therefore IRR is the value which satisfies the equation

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n

Pt = 0t=0 (1 + r)t

The formula works only up to the third year, beyond that, apply linearinterpolation.

References for this topic David Comican Roy Pilcher Ivor Seeley R D Shutt

Exercises

Discuss with the aid of examples and calculations

Evaluation of alternative schemesSensitivity and risk analysisCost benefit analysisInflation.

3.3.0 Evaluation of alternative schemes

Most construction projects can be accomplished by more than one methodmainly due to

Different levels of capital investment

Giving rise to different incomes Having varying economic lives.

Mutually exclusive alternatives are those from which one is to be selectedrendering others automatically rejected.

Example

Year ExistingArrangement

Alternative Alternative

A B C

0 - 100,000 200,0001 200,000 170,170 144,5202 200,000 170,170 144,5203 200,000 170,170 144,5204 200,000 170,170 144,5205 200,000 170,170 144,520

Assuming the project is considering reorganization of a present concreteproduction plant. Currently the total cost of labour inclusive of holidays is equal

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to $200,000 p.a.

There are two alternativesMechanizing the handling (B)Placing of concrete into moulds (C)

In (B) initial investment is K100, 000, reducing labour to K170,170In (C) initial investment is K200,000, reducing labour to K144,520

Duration = % years for the 3 alternatives. Assuming interest of 11% which isthe necessary minimum for the rate of return.Note all cash flows are negative since they are payments.

Year Compare A withB

Compare C withB

Compare C withA

0 (100,000) (100,000) (200,000)1 29,830 25,650 55,480

2 29,830 25,650 55,4803 29,830 25,650 55,4804 29,830 25,650 55,4805 29,830 25,650 55,480

IRR 15% 9% 12%

The difference in the net cash flows is found.On A and B, $100,000 s being invested to save $29,830 p.a. for 5 years. TheIRR of 15% exceeds, alternative B will be accepted.

For B and C, an additional investment of $100,000 brings an IRR of less than9% is not an accepted investment.

3.4.0 Incremental analysis

It has two concepts Subtraction of one cash flow from another The application of DCF to the difference.

The project with smaller capital investment is subtracted from the project withthe larger capital investment. Its necessary to know the profitability of anextra/incremental investment.Incremental analysis in this case is useful for comparing projects with differentlives because it directly relates the extra profitability to the extra investment.

Ref: David Comican

3.5.0 Sensitivity analysis

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Sensitivity analysis measures the impact on project outcomes of changing akey input value about which there is uncertainty, with other things heldconstant. It also applies the different combinations of input values. Then ameasure of worth can be computed for each combination. One can see whenone component becomes more attractive than the other.

Advantages of Sensitivity analysis

It shows how significant a single variable is in determining the projectoutcomes.

It recognizes the uncertainty associated with the input. It gives information about the range of output variability. It does all these when there is little information, resources or time to use

more sophisticated techniques.

Disadvantages of Sensitivity analysis It gives no specific probabilistic measure of risk exposure. It includes no explicit treatment of risk attitude The findings of Sensitivity analysis are ambiguous.

3.6.0 Risk analysis in Investment appraisal (Roy Pilcher)

Risk is concerned with chances or probability of a loss being made. It is ameasure of the probability and the severity of adverse effects. Virtuallyanything that people do has some degree of risk attached. Risk managementcan be either Structured or Unstructured.People carry out simple forms of risk analysis in their daily lives. Investmentappraisal deals with events of the future. Cash flows of many kinds need to bepredicted in order that potential returns may be evaluated.Methods of risk analysis have been developed to deal with problems ofuncertainty. Theses provide a clearer and more detailed understanding of therisks involved and decision making.

3.6.1 RisksConcerned with situations in which statistical data are available concerning thevariability of the environment in which a decision problem exists.

3.6.2 UncertaintyConcerned with situations in which no such data are available subjectiveprobability assessments due to lack of data.

4.0.0 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

Cost benefit Analysis (CBA) is a technique of analyzing an investment. It is areview or appraisal of the costs and/or benefits of adopting specified courses ofaction.It aims to setting out the factors which need to be taken into account in makingeconomics choices. It also aims to maximize the Present values of all benefits

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less than the costs, subject to specific restraints.

Basic objectives of CBA

Identifying and measuring the costs and benefits which stems from either theinvestments of monies, the operation of a service, but in particular it isconcerned with examining not only the costs and benefits which have a directimpact on the providing authority but also those which are of external nature

and accrue to other persons, and through out the life of a project.

Methodology Define the problem Identify the alternative courses of action Identify the costs and benefits both to the providing authority and the

external parties Evaluate the costs/benefits Draw alternatives to be adopted.

Constraint types in project developments Physical constraints Legal constraints Administrative constraints Uncertainties Distributional and budgeting constraints

4.1.0 Inflation

Inflation is caused by an increase in the stock of money that is available forspending while the quantity of goods available for purchase does not increaseby a proportionate amount. It is defined as the rate of increase in the generalprice level. It is measured by taking a typical basket of goods and measuring

the increase in price over a given period.

4.2.0 Life cycle costing (LCC)

Life cycle costing is an economic evaluation method which accounts for allrelevant costs the investors time horizon adjusting for time differences. TheLCC of an asset can be understood as the total cost (in terms of present worth)of the asset over its operating life, including initial acquisition costs,subsequent running costs and disposal costs.So it is concerned with the line string of costs and benefits converted topresent values by the use of discounting techniques hence assessing the

economic worth of an option

Two main ways of bringing life cycle costs to a comparable time basis Present value Annual equivalent

4.3.0 Cost in use

Building costs do not mean the capital costs of providing a new building only

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but also the cost of maintenance, decoration, repair, heating, etc. Cost-in-useis a modern technique to encompass the mixture of capital and running costs.

The shorter the period involved the more accurate the forecast is likely to be.While the results of the study are factors to bear in mind, its unwise to come toa decision about alternatives basing on the sot-in-use only.

Uses of Cost in use

To fix rentals of a development To see whether a client can afford to run the project when it has been

erected.

Merits of Cost-in-use Helps to consider the long term implications of a decision It provides a way of showing the cost consequences of short sighted

economics.

Demerits of Cost-in-use Initial and running costs cannot be equated.

Where the building is to be sold, the purchaser will bearmaintenance costs hence little importance to the vendor who isresponsible only for construction.

Where the building is to be let or used commercially, initial costscomes out of capital, while repairs and maintenance arededucted from economic receipts i.e. profits.

The future cannot really be forecast While capital costs can be estimated quite accurately,

maintenance costs are a pure guess. Interest rates cannot be forecast with any certainty, particularly

overlong periods, say 20 yrs.

5.0.0 DESIGNING DECISIONS

Effects of designing decisions on maintenance, running and replacement costs

5.1.0 Life Cycle CostsLife cycle of an asset = total cost of that asset

Operation lifeMaintenance seeks to serve a building in its initial state, so that it continues to

serve its purpose. A designer of buildings is supposed to understand theproblems connected with the running costs and maintenance of buildings andapply his knowledge at the design stage.In maintenance, acceptable standards actually meanFunction performanceStructural, fire, electrical and other safety aspects.Preservation of the asset and its units.

Over the life of a building, the running costs are usually greater than the costs

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of construction, though seemingly small because they are paid at differenttimes over long periods.

The design also affects the way a building is used and hence the cost ofoperating within it.

5.2.0 Design and Sizing

You use LCC method to select the cost effective design and size of a building,provided that alternative designs and sizes meet performance standards.When computing the LCC, make sure that the cost elements for evaluation aresame. You can choose the design that minimizes the LCC.

5.3.0 Location

LCC can assist in selecting a buildings location when a decision hinges oncosts, revenue and other benefits. You can choose the location that minimizesthe LCC with other factors being held constant.

5.4.0 Predicting future costs (PA Stone)

In order to calculate the estimated cost-in-use, the following assumptions aremade

Assumptions relating to the design being made Assumptions relating to the economic conditions under which the

building will subsequently be operated e.g. future prices, rates ofdiscount, lives of buildings and their component parts and levels oftaxation.

Factors of predicting

Future prices : prices change in two ways In relation to the value of the currency To conditions of their supply and demand

Price increases as the value of units of currency fail. When there areinflationary periods, units of currents lose some of their purchasing power andall prices rise. The real cost does not change, what changes is the purchasingpower of the currency.Prices can sometimes move out of line especially when government interfereswith market operations by way of

Wage policies Currency markets Price controls Monopoly pricing of raw materials from only a few sources.

1. Rates of discount: Building developers either borrow money to finance thebuilding or sacrifice an alternative use of their money. The real rate ofinterest in this case is the market charge of money used and/ or theaverage return which could have been obtained from money invested inother businesses. Low rate interest encourages higher class construction.

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Vise versa is true.

2. The lives of buildings: the period should be over which the building isexpected to earn an income. Substantial life of buildings is above 50years. Others to consider are physical obsolesce, financial obsolesce andfunctional obsolesce.

3. The lives of building components: the physical life of building componentsdepends on adequate maintenance. Building components may bereplaced when functionally obsolete to extend or improve the building life.

4. Levels of taxation: The effect of taxation, grants and subsidies on the costof the building varies with type of building and location.

5.5.0 Building elements and design development ( Pilcher)

Building elements

The first step in comparing the costs-in-use of design alternatives is toexamine the design in physical terms and to determine which of thebuilding elements are common to the design alternatives

Common design elements are then eliminated from the cost studies The design alternatives comparison is made in terms of relative rather

than absolutes. Elements with the same costs are eliminated.

However all elements which are affected by the differences in design are fullyconsidered.

5.6.0 Design development

The purpose of this technique is not simply to enable one design to becompared against another but try to find the optimum solution. The order ofcost analysis can be arranged to facilitate the development of the optimumdesign and for this task relative costs and not absolute are the ones thatmatter.

5.7.0 Design variability

Number of storeys and cost-in-use (I Seeley)The cost in use will vary both the cost of providing the building itself and thecost of operating and running it. The greater the numbers of storeys, the

smaller the area of the site which will be necessary, the greater the work to thefoundation and the frame. The larger the area of the walls, the lower the areaof the roof. The more storeys the building has, the greater the area of thesuspended floor. Vertical axis turns out to be more expensive than horizontalaxis.

5.8.0 Development appraisal and feasibility studies (Clive Darlow)

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5.8.1 Development appraisalThe most important objective of any development is maximizing the potentialvalue or income accruing from the investments by

Completing development on time Within budget And to the required quality

5.8.2 Feasibility studies (Lavender D Stephen)Prior to the purchase of a site for development, a developer must know whatforms of development will be permitted on the site and should have access tothe financial appraisal.The developer needs to be advised on

Fair price for the land Probable building cost Probable rent/selling price of the completed building.

This will help you determine how feasible the project will be

6.0.0 DEVELOPMENT COSTS AND FEES

6.0.1Development costsThis depends on the size and complexity of the project. Development costsinclude

1. Purchase of site2. Cost of actual construction3. Professional fees4. Markup of contractor5. Local authority charges6. insurance of the works7. financial arrangements (interest)8. running and maintenance costs9. legal fees

6.0.2 Factors affecting development costs

1. completion time2. location3. design and specification criteria4. contract arrangements5. prevailing market conditions

6.1.0 The basic criteria for development(Seeley)

Market value should be the underlying factor. Note the cheapest is not thebest. For an investor the concern is financial appraisal, the feasibility study is todetermine the likely capital expenditure and the probable revenue in order toarrive at the anticipated return on the money invested.

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6.2.0 Problem of land acquisition (Seeley and lavender)Land may be sold by

Tender Negotiation Auction

Problems of market land use

Market imperfections preventing the market from operating in accordancewith the market theory.

Distribution issues i.e. distribution to satisfy all is very difficult. Externalities effects of economic activities e.g. pollution etc.

7.0.0 VALUATION METHODS

Although the methods of valuation differ significantly, underlying each one ofthem is the need to make comparisons since this is the essential ingredient inarriving at the market value

a. Comparative method: this is the simplest method. You compare the objectto be valued with the prices obtained for other similar objects. Works wellfor identical objects.

b. Contractors method: this is a valuation of the erections costs.c. Profits and loss method this is valuation of property based on the value of

various factors which combine to produce a potential level of business inthe property.

d. Residual method: this is the valuation of land or buildings which are to bedeveloped or redeveloped.

e. Investment method: this is valuation of an interest in property where thevalue is the amount of capital required to purchase the interest, and thisvalue is clearly dependent on the amount of rent which an occupier wouldbe prepared to pay for the right to occupy and the level of return which aninvestor would require on his capital.

f. Cost of replacement approach: this is a valuation of properties that aredesign and used for a special purpose to meet specific requirements whichare outside the general range of commercial and residential properties,e.g. churches, police stations, hospitals etc.

8.0.0 ECONOMICS OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTIONSFactors which affect the cost of building

1. Plan shape: the simpler the shape of the building ,the lower will be theunit cost.

2. Size: increase in the size of a building will increase the cost, simplyfrom the understanding of cost/m2

3. Perimeter floor area ratio: the lower the wall/floor ratio, the more

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economic will be the proposal.4. Circulation space : and economic outline is one that minimizes

circulation space

5. Storey heights/ Total height: the main construction costs which may beaffected by variation in storey heights are walls and partitions, hoistingservices, staircases and lifts, need for costly foundations to support theincreased loads.

6. Fenestration7. Form of contract8. The period of construction9. The structural form10. Extent of prefabrication and standardization11. Consideration of maintenance and running costs.

References

1. Briscoe B (1994) The economics of the construction industry.Macmillan, UK.

2. Comican David3. Darlow Clive (1998) Valuation and Development appraisal.

Butterworths, UK.4. Ferry D J (1978) Cost planning of Buildings. Crosby Lockwood and

Sons, UK5. Halpin W and Woodhead (1998) Construction Management. Oxford

Press. UK.6. Lean W (2002) Aspects of Land Economy. The Estates Gazette.

London7. Pilcher R (1996) Construction Project Management

8. Ruegg R T et al (1988) Building economics9. Seeley I (2002) Building Economics10. Shutt R C (1997) Economics for the Construction Industry11. Stone PA (1992) Design Evaluation cost in use12. Stephen D and Lavender (1995) Economics for Builders and

Surveyors. Longman Group, England.13. William Britton et al (1989) Modern Methods of Valuation. The Estates

Gazette. London

Tutorial Questions 1. What planning decisions taken by a local authority could lead tochanges in the prices of housing?

2. What would be the most effective way of attracting new industry andemployment for a local authority?

3. In a market economy, is it likely that firms will generally produce whatconsumers want?

4. Does privatisation benefit society?

5. Are economies of scale significant in the construction industry?

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6. What are the implications of reducing the proportion of the nationsresources expended on investment?

7. Is the conversion of large houses into smaller flats a reasonablesolution to a housing shortage?

8. To what extend should market forces be relied upon to revive andeconomy and activities of cities?

9. Why might builders be interested in undertaking projects in inner cities?10. Explain the relationship between the price of land and the housing

market generally

Teaching andlearning material

Course reader - Building Economics by I Seeley

Exercises: Use Construction Project Management by R Pilcher

Hardware andsoftwarerequirements

Laptop and LCD projector for class presentations

White board and White board markers for lectures

Models for demonstrations

Calculators for calculations

Graph papers

Programme(s) Physical Planning and EnvironmentalManagement

NQFCredits

14 (Level 5)

Objectives Upon completion of the course the participants should be able to:

- Calculate the construction costs of a proposed school, house and anoffice building.

- Develop construction or self-help labor alternatives to reduce the costof the proposed construction

- Calculate and compare the cost of different building materials

5 Project Management and Deadlines

DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION OF FIRST DRAFT: 31 August 2007 16:30 hrsDEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION OF FINAL MATERIAL: 30 September 2007 16:30 hrs

The consultant must present a draft table of contents for approval by the Polytechnic,before starting to write the material. This shall be submitted to the Polytechnic at least

two months before the deadline for the first draft.

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building construct economics ii

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