KOF Swiss Economic Institute

BulletinNo. 110, September 2017

ECONOMY AND RESEARCH• Structural Budget Underruns at the Swiss Federal Level →• Global Economy is Picking up Speed →• Does Vocational Education and Training Improve Young People’s Situation on the Labour Market? →

KOF INDICATORS• KOF Business Situation: Companies More Satisfied →• KOF Economic Barometer Falls →

AGENDA →

EDITORIAL

Dear readers,

The Swiss debt brake is generally considered a success story. Nevertheless, there are voices who believe it may be too successful since it has led to surpluses that appear to be of a structural nature. Given this background, the Feder-al Council has engaged an expert commission chaired by KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm to investigate a possible extension of the debt brake. The recommendations of the expert commission have been summarised in our first arti-cle. After the summer break, our second article takes a look at the development of the global economy. Signs that the Chinese engine may be starting to splutter are increas-ing in number. The third article is dedicated to the subject of vocational education and training. A new study has exam-ined the question whether work-based or school-based vocational training is more effective in improving the situa-tion on the youth labour market. Furthermore, the ‘KOF Indicators’ section presents the KOF Business Situation Indicator and the KOF Economic Barometer, both of which project robust economic development in Switzerland.

We hope you enjoy your read,

David Iselin and Anne Stücker

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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It was, after all, not the budgeted surpluses that allowed the budget to exceed the minimum target under the debt brake concept, i.e. the permanent balancing of income and expenditure (Art. 126 para. 1 Swiss Federal Constitu-tion [BV]). Around half of the non-budgeted surpluses are due to budget underruns on the expenditure side. It is not unlikely that such budget underruns will also occur in the future. According to Graph G 2, the underruns have quite a tradition by now. As one of the consequences of the under-runs, the federal accounts have systematically exceeded the budget, and debt has been gradually reduced. In the period from 2003 to 2016, the average expenditure-based budget underruns amounted to 1.2 billion Swiss francs a year.

Given this background, the Swiss Federal Council engaged an expert committee to examine the question whether future budget underruns should be used to stock up the expenditure fund rather than reducing debt even further. Chaired by KOF’s Director Jan-Egbert Sturm, the members of the expert committee, Marius Brülhart (University of Lausanne), Patricia Funk (Università della Svizzera Ita-liana), Christoph A. Schaltegger (University of Lucerne) and Peter Siegenthaler (Board of Directors of SBB and BEKB, former Director of FFA), arrived at two essential conclusions1:

ECONOMY AND RESEARCH

Structural Budget Underruns at the Swiss Federal Level

Both in Switzerland and abroad, the Swiss ‘debt brake’ is often seen as one of the country’s big success stories. Since its entry into force in 2003, the government’s gross debt has declined from 124 billion Swiss francs to 99 billion Swiss francs (2016), despite the financial crisis and the Swiss franc shock (see G 1). Nevertheless, some politicians are worried.

1 The expert committee would like to thank Mr Florian Chatagny (KOF) for his research support.

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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1. An extension of the debt brake is currently not recommendedAccording to the group of experts, substantial interventions in the current regulations would not be astute. The experts expect a natural reduction of budget underruns in the com-ing years on at least two grounds. Firstly, the so-called New Management Model of the Swiss Federal Government (NFB), which was introduced on 1 January 2017, may result in lower underruns. Secondly, in the past few years, Swit-zerland has been in the extraordinary position of overesti-mating its inflation and interest rate forecasts while simul-taneously underestimating growth rates. These forecast errors have made compliance with the budget require-ments easier on the expenditure side. If the economic and currency trends change, however, compliance with the budget requirements should become a lot more difficult than suggested by the development of the last few years.

Even if it looks now as if budget underruns are on the decline, they are unlikely to disappear altogether. Never-theless, as long as they are of a modest nature, the expert committee sees no reasons to amend the current regula-tions. According to the committee, the potential negative effects of feasible alternatives are too high.

The committee therefore recommends leaving the current regulations as they are, at least for the foreseeable future. However, in addition to the NFB, they could imagine a reg-ulation according to which overdrafts would only need to be justified in the accounts in the case of loans that the Fed-eral Council and the administration do not control in the budget implementation context. The incentive for the administration to include safety margins in the budget can be further reduced by a materiality limit as a percentage of the preliminary borrowing budget and a maximum ceiling for the other loans. The group of experts believes that any further non-budgeted debt reduction is not problematic.

G 1: Trend in the Swiss Confederation’s Gross Debt, 1990–2016

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G 1: Trend in the Swiss Confederation’s Gross Debt, 1990–2016

G 2: Trend in Budget Underruns, 1994–2016

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m CHFG 2: Trend in Budget Underruns, 1994–2016

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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2. Potential tax cuts in the case of sustainable and substantial budget underruns Should the budget underruns turn out to be both sub-stantial and sustainable over the coming years, this may indicate that taxes and charges have been higher than necessary. Since taxes go hand in hand with macroeco-nomic losses, low taxes appear attractive from a macro-economic perspective.

The expert committee has identified a feasible option in connection with one of the next few tax reforms associated with loss of revenue. Compensatory savings measures or tax increases could be waived in the amount of the antici-pated budget underruns.

However, the group of experts is currently not advising this procedure. Since it is not clear whether or not substantial budget underruns should be expected in the future, the regulations should, at present, remain unchanged.

ContactFlorian Chatagny | chatagny@kof.ethz.chJan-Egbert Sturm | sturm@kof.ethz.ch

LiteratureExpert committee investigating the debt brake (2017): Appraisal of a debt brake extension. Bern: Federal Department of Finance (in German):www.newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/ attachments/49483.pdf →

Upswing on a broader basisThe current global economic dynamics are not only strong-er than in the past few years but also supported by a wider basis on the demand side. Until autumn 2016, the upswing was moderate and mostly driven by consumption, while investment and external trade remained on the weak side. Since the winter of 2016/17, investment has been expand-ing much faster and has even remained robust at the begin-ning of the year, despite significant political uncer tainty.

This recovery pattern is, however, rather atypical. Usually, it is the investment economy that recovers first after an eco-nomic downturn. One likely reason for the lengthy slump in investments is the debt reduction programmes and more

prudent strategies adopted by many companies due to the massive economic crises witnessed in the recent past (major recession, European debt crisis, emerging market crisis). Other economists believe that weak investments are a long-term phenomenon1.

Slow monetary divergence continuesAs expected, the gradual divergence between the big eco-nomic regions is continuing. In mid-June, the FED raised the Federal Funds Rate – the US key interest rate – by a further 0.25 percentage points. The Funds Rate target range is now between one and 1.25 per cent. Towards the end of the year, a further adjustment is likely.

Global Economy is Picking up Speed

1 Cp. discussion on ‘Secular Stagnation Theory’, e.g. in Baldwin, R. and C. Teulings (2014): Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, CEPR Press, London.

The global economy has been growing substantially for over a year now. The tempo even acceler-ated in the second quarter of 2017. Growth rates in the USA, Japan and the Eurozone significantly exceeded the potential. In the USA, the economy is close to full capacity, in Japan already above. In contrast, the production gap has not yet closed in the Eurozone. The Chinese economy is slowly passing the peak of its boom.

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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Last winter, the Chinese central bank also adopted a less expansive approach with the aim of reducing outflows of capital and mitigating the Yuan devaluation. In contrast, the Japanese central bank is adhering to its extremely loose monetary policy. Given persistently low inflation rates, the bank has had to postpone its two per cent infla-tion target for the fourth time in five years – most recently to the year 2020.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also pursuing its pre-vious expansive monetary policy with little change. In April, according to schedule, the government and corporate bond buying programme was reduced by 20 billion euros to a monthly volume of 60 billion euros. The programme is set to continue until the end of the year. If the upswing contin-ues in the Eurozone, the ECB is likely to gradually reduce its purchases thereafter.

A rise in key interest rates in Europe is not likely before the middle of 2018. Increasingly, ECB communications in the first half of this summer contained intimations of an

envisaged monetary turnaround. In a speech held in July, ECB President Draghi mentioned ‘reflationary forces’ in the Eurozone and indicated that tapering may be intro-duced next year. However, sceptical voices on the ECB council have been gaining ground again. Due to positive economic news in the Eurozone and less uncertainty after the French elections, the euro has gained significantly against the US dollar and other important currencies (around 10 per cent against the US dollar since April 2017). This trend puts a break on Eurozone inflation and has an opposing effect on the ECB’s reflationary policy – at least in the short-term.

According to the purchasing power parity concept, the euro is highly undervalued vis-à-vis the US dollar (see G 3). At least in the long term, this concept has a certain predictive power in respect of exchange rate movements2. It is there-fore possible that increasing price pressure in the course of the Eurozone’s economic upswing will be thwarted by a further appreciation of the Euro. This phenomenon has been observed in Japan in the recent past.

Positive outlook, lower risksThe global upturn is likely to continue apace in the coming quarters. Thereafter, dynamics are likely to flatten to some degree. Recently, economic/political uncertainty at the international level has declined substantially from its high level at the beginning of the year. This trend is affecting both the USA and Europe. In the USA, Republican Con-gressmen are increasingly standing up to President Trump while also showing greater political fragmentation. As a consequence, KOF estimates that the implementation of the Trump administration’s radical but extremely vague plans in the fields of trade agreements, tax reform and infrastructure investment will proceed at a very gradual pace. Hence, no major deviations from previous trade and fiscal policies are expected.

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G 3: USD/EUR Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power ParityG 3: USD/EUR Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power Parity

2 Cp. for instance Cheung, Y.-W.; M. Chinn; A. G. Pascual and Y. Zhang (2017): Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies, ECB Working Paper 2018 (February), European Central Bank, Frankfurt a. M.

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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G 4: Outstanding Loans in the Enterprise Sector (Excluding the Financial Sector) as a Percentage of GDP

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G 4: Outstanding Loans in the Enterprise Sector (Excluding the Financial Sector) as a Percentage of GDP

The risk of political distortions within Europe has also declined. EU-sceptic parties lost the elections both in the Netherlands and in France. According to the latest statements made by the UK government, KOF believes that a Brexit with an additional two-year transitional period is becoming more likely. Although this will extend uncertainty caused by the departure process, the UK government will have more time to negotiate free trade agreements with the EU and other countries.

The Chinese economy continues to pose a substantial risk to global economic development. In the last few years, debt in the enterprise sector has risen enormously and is now at

an extremely high level, even in international comparison (see G 4). It is rare that a country’s economy can avoid a substantial longer-term slowdown after a debt explosion. A structured debt conversion and relief process initiated by the Chinese government would put a dampener on growth dynamics. However, since the government is most-ly refraining from implementing such a process, for the time being, the economy is likely to continue expanding significantly at rates above or close to six per cent. At the same time, the danger of a crisis-laden slump increases.

ContactHeiner Mikosch | mikosch@kof.ethz.ch

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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First of all, what is vocational education and training?At the upper secondary level, vocational education and training (VET) comprises all courses that prepare students for transition into the labour market. At least 25 per cent of the course contents are of a vocational nature. In contrast, general education, such as offered by grammar schools, prepares students for academic programmes. Principally, we distinguish between two types of vocational education and training courses. School-based VET predominantly takes place at school. Programmes where more than 25 per cent of the curriculum is taught at work are referred to as dual vocational education and training, or ‘Berufslehre’ in Switzerland.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Develop-ment (OECD) has used this definition to determine the percentages of students in general education, school-based VET and dual VET in 35 countries in the period from 2004 to 2014. However, this study does not reflect the considerable differences in education systems in regard to further dimensions, for instance different professions or quality standards.

Measuring the situation of young people on the labour market To reflect the complex situation on the youth labour mar-ket, the authors have used a series of indicators in their study. Indicators such as the unemployment rate relate to the integration of young people into the labour market while others relate to employment conditions, such as temporary work or income.

Impact of vocational education and training on the situation of young people on the labour market The study is based on the hypothesis that rising percentag-es of students in vocational education and training improve the situation of young people on the labour market. In addi-tion, the authors assume that, thanks to the substantial weighting of work-based training, dual VET programmes are more successful than school-based VET. Nevertheless, the economy needs both graduates with vocational qualifi-cations and those with general qualifications, leading to a

Does Vocational Education and Training Improve Young People’s Situation on the Labour Market?

In many countries, the youth labour market deteriorated substantially after the financial crisis. Political interest in vocational education and training programmes as a means to improve this situ-ation increased significantly. However, as yet little is known about the impact of vocational educa-tion and training on the youth labour market. The authors of a new KOF study aim to close this gap.

Higher chances on labour market because of VET?

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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certain complementarity of general and vocational educa-tion and training on the labour market. Bolli, Oswald-Egg and Rageth therefore also investigated whether the posi-tive impact of vocational education and training declines with a rising percentage of students in the respective train-ing programmes.

Contrary to expectations, more school-based VET hampers the integration of young people into the labour market. Even though the quality of the training conditions does not generally deteriorate, the results indicate that school-based VET does not fully meet the needs of the labour mar-ket. This could be due to the fact that the courses do not include any work-based training where young people can apply their vocational skills and develop soft skills such as teamwork ability. Furthermore, school-based VET may not involve any communication between the education system and the employers, which may result in obsolete education standards. Consequently, school-based VET is no panacea, but its form and quality play a significant role. This is also supported by the fact that the negative impact of school-based VET does not occur in countries with a high percent-age of vocational education and training in schools. This indicates that the form and quality of school-based VET is better in these countries.

In contrast, the high percentage of work-based training in the dual system seems to provide young people with optimum preparation for the labour market. Both labour

market integration and employment quality improve if the percentage of students in dual vocational education and training increases. However, the results also show that the positive impact of dual VET diminishes with higher per-centages. This confirms the hypothesis that the economy needs an optimum combination of workers with different complementary qualifications.

ContactThomas Bolli | bolli@kof.ethz.chLadina Rageth | rageth@kof.ethz.ch

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The project was implemented with the financial sup-port of the Gebert Rüf Foundation. KOF Working Paper No. 429 ‘Meet the need – The role of vocational educa-tion and training for the youth labour market’ by Thomas Bolli, Maria Esther Oswald-Egg and Ladina Rageth is available at: www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/129532 →

An extended version of the article appeared in KOF Analyses, 2017, No. 1 spring (in German):www.researchcollection.ethz.ch/bitstream/ handle/20.500.11850/166310/2017_1_SA_2.pdf ?sequence=47&isAllowed=y →

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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KOF INDICATORS

KOF Business Situation: Companies More Satisfied

In August 2017, the KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private economy rose again after a slight decline in the previous month (see G 5). The improved European economy was the main additional driver of economic growth in Switzerland.

The improvement of the business situation is due to a more favourable appraisal of the situation in the manufacturing sector. Financial and insurance service providers are also more satisfied with their situation than in the preceding month (see T 1). The positive situation in the construction and project engineering sectors is mostly unchanged. The more unfavourable situation in the retail trade has also hardly changed compared to the previous month. Whole-salers, hotel and catering businesses and the other service providers were last surveyed in July. Both the wholesale trade and the hotel and catering industry had reported a significant improvement of their business situation at the time. The indicator for the other service providers declined slightly.

KOF Business Situation

G 5: KOF Business Situation Indicator

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G 5: KOF Business Situation Indicator (balance, seasonally adjusted)

T 1: KOF Business Situation for Switzerland (seasonally adjusted balances)T 1: KOF Business Situation for Switzerland (seasonally adjusted balances)

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Private sector (overall) 10.4 10.9 11.5 9.9 9.3 10.0 11.7 13.8 20.1 20.3 21.6 20.6 21.8

Manufacturing -8.2 -7.9 -6.2 -9.5 -8.4 -9.3 -7.2 -5.1 -1.5 -1.0 3.9 3.9 5.7

Construction 28.0 23.2 24.8 26.7 24.6 28.4 28.1 31.9 31.8 29.6 32.9 32.7 32.5

Project engineering 46.2 46.1 45.9 42.1 46.4 47.6 47.5 49.4 50.0 47.3 46.7 46.2 46.1

Retail trade -11.7 -10.0 -8.6 -13.2 -9.0 -7.5 -10.4 -7.2 -3.2 -11.2 -1.0 -2.6 -2.5

Wholesale trade - - 3.8 - - -7.3 - - 14.6 - - 20.3 -

Financial services 22.3 23.0 24.7 22.1 18.0 22.4 32.0 33.4 32.6 38.3 37.0 29.9 32.8

Hotel and catering - - -16.5 - - -17.8 - - -14.2 - - 5.6 -

Other services - - 21.9 - - 26.7 - - 35.0 - - 32.0 -

Answers to the question: We assess our business situation as good/satisfactory/bad. The balance is the percentage of ‘good’ answers minus the percentage of ‘bad’ answers.

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From a regional perspective, the Business Situation Indica-tor has risen, or at least remained about the same, in almost all of the main FSO (Federal Statistical Office) regions. Only the Lake Geneva region reported a slowdown of the business situation. An improvement was reported in Ticino, Central Switzerland, North-West Switzerland and Espace Mittelland. In the Zurich region and Eastern Swit-zerland, the situation hardly changed in August (see G 6).

Explanation of graphsGraph G 5 shows the KOF business situation for all sectors of the economy covered by the survey. For sectors of the economy that are only surveyed quarterly, the business situation is maintained at the same level during the inter-vening months.

Graph G 6 reports the business situation in the major regions used by the Federal Statistics Office. The regions are coloured differently depending on the business situa-tion. The arrows within the regions indicate the change in the business situation compared to the previous month. An arrow pointing upwards means that the situation has improved compared to the previous month.

The KOF business situation is based on over 4,500 reports by Swiss companies. Every month, businesses are sur-veyed in the following sectors: industry, retail trade, con-struction and project engineering as well as financial and insurance services. Businesses in the hotel and catering sector, wholesalers and the other service providers are surveyed in the first month of every quarter. Among other questions, the businesses are asked to assess their cur-rent business situation. They may rate their situation as ‘good’, ‘satisfactory’ or ‘bad’. The balance of the current business situation is the percentage difference between the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ responses.

ContactKlaus Abberger | abberger@kof.ethz.ch

The angle of the arrows reflects the change in the business situation compared to the previous month Source: KOF

Net balances55 to 100 30 to under 55 16.5 to under 309 to under 16.5 5 to under 9 -5 to under 5-9 to under -5 -16.5 to under -9 -30 to under -16.5-55 to under -30 -100 to under -55

G 6: KOF Business Situation in the Private Sector

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G 6: KOF Business Situation in the Private Sector

You can find more information about the KOF Business Tendency Surveys on our website:www.kof.ethz.ch/en/surveys/business-tendency-surveys →

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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KOF Economic Barometer Falls

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 3.9 points. It thus more than reversed its previous month’s climb. With a new reading of 104.1, however, it still points to a level clearly above its long-term average (see G 7). This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above-average rates.

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 108.0 in July (revised up from 106.8) by 3.9 points to a level of 104.1. Accordingly, the barometer more than revised its climb in July. It still stands markedly above its long-term average; and the last few months do not reveal any clear down- or upward trend. It thus indicates a continuation of growth with rates above average, but no further accelera-tion should be expected.

The strongest negative contributions to this result come from the hotel and catering industry, followed by the man-ufacturing sector, the indicators relating to exports and those to construction, whilst the indicators from the finan-cial sector have practically remained unchanged. A slightly positive signal stems from the indicators relating to domes-tic private consumption.

Within the manufacturing industry, the negative overall outlook can be attributed to somewhat diverging signals. A deteriorating sentiment is mainly visible in the textile and timber industries. Positive signals, on the other hand, come from the food processing industry. The remaining industry branches recorded hardly any change.

Moreover, the sentiment amongst the architects has also deteriorated, which is not an encouraging signal for the construction sector.

The deteriorating sentiment reflected in current dynam-ics of the barometer is largely driven by a more pessimis-tic assessment of the domestic firms’ competitiveness. Accordingly, the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc has apparently not yet alleviated the pressure.

KOF Economic Barometer and reference time series: annual updateIn September 2016, the scheduled annual update of the KOF Economic Barometer took place. The annual update of the Barometer includes the following stages: redefinition of the pool of indicators that enter the selection procedure, update of the reference time series, a new execution of the

variable selection procedure and a procedure to estimate missing monthly values of quarterly variables. The updated reference series is the smoothed continuous growth rate of Swiss GDP according to the new System of National Accounts ESVG 2010, released at the end of August 2015, which takes into account the release of the previous year’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. As a result of the indicator varia-ble selection procedure, the updated KOF Economic Baro-meter is now based on 272 indicators (instead of 238 as in the previous vintage) from a pool of more than 400 potential indicator series. They are combined using statistically determined weights.

ContactMichael Graff | graff@kof.ethz.ch

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KOF Economic Barometer(Index values; long-term average 2006–2015=100; left scale)Month-on-month change of the Swiss business cycle(Reference series; SECO/KOF, right scale)

G 7: Economic Barometer and Reference Series

For detailed information on the KOF Economic Baro meter, visit our website: www.kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-economic-barometer →

KOF Bulletin – No. 110, September 2017

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AGENDA

KOF Events

KOF Forecast Conference Herbst 2017

Drohende wirtschaftliche Abschottung in der Welt –was sind die Aussichten für die Schweiz?Donnerstag, 5. Oktober 2017, 17.45 Uhr UBS Konferenzgebäude GrünenhofNüschelerstrasse 9, 8001 ZürichGastreferenten:Prof. Simon J. Evenett, Universität St. Gallen – SIAW – Schweizerisches Institut für Aussenwirtschaft und Angewandte WirtschaftsforschungProf. Dr. Tobias Straumann, Universität Zürich, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Historisches Seminarwww.kof.ethz.ch/news-und-veranstaltungen/event-calendar-page/kof-prognosetagung →

Swiss National Bank’s Karl Brunner Distinguished LectureIdeas and Institutions for Monetary Policy Making by John B. TaylorThursday, 21 September 2017, 5:30 pm, ETH Zurichwww.kof.ethz.ch/en →

KOF Research Seminar:www.kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/event-calendar-page/kof-research-seminar →

KOF-ETH-UZH International Economic Policy Seminar:www.kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/event-calendar-page/kof-eth-uzh-seminar →

Conferences /Workshops

You can find current events and workshops under the following link:www.kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/event-calendar-page/konferenzen →

KOF Media Agenda

Here you can find our media events:www.kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/media/media-agenda →

KOF Publications

You will find a complete list of all KOF publications (KOF Analyses, KOF Working Papers and KOF Studies) on our website.www.kof.ethz.ch/en/publications →

Imprint

Publisher KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Director Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm

Editors Dr. David Iselin, Anne Stücker

Layout Vera Degonda, Nicole Koch

Pictures Shutterstock

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ISSN 1662-4289 | Copyright © ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, 2017The reproduction of this Bulletin (including excerpts thereof) is permitted only with the written permission of the publisher and with the citation of the original source.

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