business barometer survey 16 the business pulse• deloitte’s 16th business barometer survey was...

Business Barometer Survey 16 The business pulse

2011年03月

第16期商务环境调查报告企业的脉搏

©2009 Galaz, Yamazaki, Ruiz Urquiza, S.C. Todos los derechos reservados. 2 第16期商务环境调查报告 - 墨西哥中国服务组

Business Barometer

商务环境调查报告

• Business Barometer is a study of the perception of the current business climate in Mexico, which is

prepared based on the answers of CEO´s of the most important companies in Mexico.

• The main purpose of this survey is aimed at compiling and quarterly disclosing business trends,

business climate and expectations in our country, as well as those contingent effects of concrete

issues and occasional circumstances over a specific time frame.

• It is a tool designed to satisfy the information requirements of the business sector based on its

growth priorities.

• 商务环境调查报告是对墨西哥当前商务景气所做的研究，是根据墨西哥数家指标性公司的总裁的回答而完成的。

• 这份报告的主要目的是为了汇整及按季揭露我们国家的商务概况，商务景气和预期，以及在某个特定期间内发生的具体事件和特殊环境下所产生的暂时影响。

• 这是可以满足商务部门资讯需求的工具。

©2011 Galaz, Yamazaki, Ruiz Urquiza, S.C.

©2009 Galaz, Yamazaki, Ruiz Urquiza, S.C. Todos los derechos reservados.

Business Barometer / 商务环境调查报告

3 第16期商务环境调查报告 - 墨西哥中国服务组

Business

trends (商业趋势)

and

business

Climate (商务环境)

Current situation (vs. last year) and

expectations (vs. next year )

现实情况比去年的比较以及现实展望比明年的比较

Investment 投资

Business environment

商务环境 Credit 信贷

Insecurity 不安全

Unemployment 失业

Production 生产

Profitability 盈利能力

Company situation

公司情况

Wages 工资

Prices 价格

Government administration

政府绩效评估

Threats to the economy (next months)

经济面临的威胁 (将来的几个月)

Actions

政府行动

Economic indicators and

special section

经济指标以及热点问题


Participants profile 问卷反馈人员的职务


Business Barometer Survey 16

第16期商务环境调查报告 • Deloitte’s 16th Business Barometer Survey was conducted between November 29 and December 20, 2010 and collected the

opinion of 370 executives of the most prominent companies located in Mexico.

• 德勤第16期商务环境调查报告是于2010年11月29日至2010年12月20日间，征询搜集墨西哥境内指标性公司370位高级管理人员之意见而完成的。

Participants profile / 问卷反馈人员的职务:


平均年收入问卷反馈企业所涉及的行业

Survey results 调查结果


Business environment

商务环境

• An increased number of positive responses suggest the executives’ appreciation about the business environment

improvement compared with one previous year.

• The evolution is worthy of notice, specially compared to the participants’ view in December 2009 with regard to

economic situation, investment climate, employment and credit availability.

• Although the respondents’ expectation respecting insecurity is better now than in previous quarter, it has not

rebounded measured up against one previous year.

• Executives’ expectations regarding the business environment within a year remained practically unchanged,

barely showing slight improvement of their prospects about the investment climate and credit availability.

• Their outlook reveals increased caution, likely influenced by the insecurity issue.

• 与前一年相比，高层管理人员对商务环境的信心有所恢复。

• 相较于2009年12月反馈人员对于经济情势，投资景气，失业率和信贷可得性问题的评价，这项进展值得被注意。

• 虽然反馈人员信心期待较上一季佳。

• 反馈人员对于一年内商务环境之信心期待大致没有改变，这表示他们对于投资景气和信贷可得性的信心期待有些微地增进。

• 他们的观点反映出警告，很可能受信心影响。



Business environment . Current situation

商务环境 . 现实情况


越高

越乐

观

越低越

悲观


Business environment. Future situation

商务环境. 未来情况


越高

越乐

观

越低越

悲观


Company situation. Current Situation

公司情况。现实情况

• Prospects have improved. For instance, in December 2010, the average score with regard to the

companies’ general situation compared with one previous year was 72 in a 0-100 scale, higher

than December’s 2009 (47). Actually it is higher than previous quarters’ in 2010: September (67),

June (71) and March (66).

• The executives’ responses on their companies’ performance within 12 months previous to the

survey show, although with ups and downs, the Mexican economy is recovering. The average

score about the six enterprise indicators –products, wages, production capacity, prices,

employment and profitability- are more positive (67) than the same month in 2010 (50); yet it is

important to point out it also surpasses these same indicators average score in previous quarters

in 2010: 63 in September,62 in June and 60 in March.

• 企业的乐观增强了。举例来说，2010年12月公司整体情况平均分数为72分（100分为满分），较前一年高出许多（2009年12月的分数为47分）。事实上这分数也比2010年前几季高出许多（9月的分数为67分，6月的分数为71分，3月的分数为66分）。

• 参照高管人员所任职公司过去12个月的业务发展，他们的回答显示墨西哥经济一步一步的复苏。产品，薪资，生产力，价格，职业，盈力能力-的平均分数为67分，相较于2010年同月份的50分高出许多这也重要地反映出这分数高于2010年前几季对相同企业指标的平均分数（9月的分数为63分。6

月的分数为62分，3月的分数为60分）。



• A fairly large 57% of survey panelists reported production as better now compared with one previous year, (27%)

showing a remarkable progress. Similarly the remaining enterprise indicators highly improved: production

capacity (44% vs. 25%), wages (46% vs. 28%), profitability (42% vs. 25%), prices (41% vs. 37%) and

employment (37% vs. 14%).

• Although nearly one fifth of respondents believe their companies’ demand will remain low (19.6%), the proportion

is significantly lower compared with a sizable 44.8% % in December 2009, and also lower than September 2010

(27%). Now the majority of executives (54.1%) report their demand as normal, while only 40% said so one

previous year.

• Another positive indicator is related to inventories: while in December 2009, 16% of executives said their

inventories’ level was high, and 18.9% in September 2010, the share decreased in December 2010 (14.6%)

• 超过半数的调查小组人员（57％）认为目前的产量较前一年（27％）佳，这是值得注意的进展同样地，其他的企业指标也有高度的提升：。生产力（44％比25％），薪资（46％对比28％），盈力能力（42％对比25％），价格（41％对比37％），员工（37％对比14％）。

• 尽管五分之一的反馈人员（19.6％）相信他们的公司需求仍低，但这比例已远低于2009年12月的44.8％，也低于2009年12月的27％。这次有超过半数的高管人员（54.1％）认为他们的需求正常，而去年只有40％的高管人员这么认为。

• 另一项正向指标是存货：2009年12月有16%的高管人员表示他们的存货量很高，2010年9月有18.9%的高管人员表示如此，而该比例在2010年12月明显下降(14.6%)。









越高

越乐

观

越低越

悲观


Company situation. Future Situation

公司情况。未来的展望

• Notwithstanding increased confidence compared with one previous year, the executives’ views about the future

reveal cautious optimism, and thus prospects with regard to the companies’ general situation within 12 months

remained about the same as they were in December 2009: 83 versus 82 in a 0-100 scale. Likewise, the

respondents average score regarding six indicators remained practically unchanged from previous year.

• Fifty nine percent of panelists say they expect their companies’ production will grow, yet only 41% forecast to

expect to hire and 46% anticipate price increases within their company.

• By contrast, participants to the survey improved their views regarding the future, as 54% believe their companies’

profitability will grow and 43% forecast higher production capacity (43%).

• 虽然今年比去年的预期更乐观，反馈企业对将来的12个月还是谨慎（2010年12月的分数为83分)，相较于2009没有很大的变化（12月的分数为82分)。

• 根据经济复苏，59%的反馈企业有望这事情对生产将起到积极的影响，41%预期雇佣新的员工以及46%预期提高价格。

• 另外，有54%的高层管理员预期2011年比2010年企业经济效益将提高，和43%预期扩大生产能力。




Company situation. Future Situation

公司情况。未来的展望

越高越乐观

越低越悲观


Exchange rate

汇率

• After several consecutive quarters of instability, beginning March 2010 the survey panelists revised

their expectations downwards, anticipating substantial progress with regard to exchange rate

stability.

• Whereas in December 2009 a sizable majority of executives (82.5%) said that the exchange rate

within 12 months would be over 13 pesos per dollar, the proportion has been decreasing

considerably. In September 2010 the share edged down markedly (60.5%) and only three months

later, in December, the trend reversed dramatically.

• Presently, the portion of respondents expecting the exchange rate to be over 13 pesos to the dollar

by year-end has substantially reduced, (28.1%) while a plurality (71.9%) predicts it will close below

that number.

• 在连续几季的不稳定后，自2010年3月调查小组将他们的期待向下修正，预期汇率稳定性会有实质进展。

• 在2009年12月，有超过半数的高管人员（82.5％）表示12个月内的汇率超过1美元兑13比索，这比例已大幅降低。2010年9月明显降至60.5％。而三个月后，2010年12月这趋势却戏剧性反转。

• 目前，反馈人员预期汇率在年底前会超过13比索兑1美元的比例已降至28.1％，但仍有71.9％的人员预期汇率会收低于该数字。




Exchange rate

汇率




Inflation

通货膨胀


• Downward behavior of inflation in 2010 and less pressure toward s the Mexican economy, seems to have

influenced positively to the surveyed companies.

• They are more positive about financial stability in Mexico.

• Participants to the survey suggest inflation is not a serious downward risk to economic prosperity, as their

expectations in this regard have changed. Whereas in previous quarter some 5% of panelists expected

annual inflation to close over 5%, the proportion lessened to only 3.8% in December 2010, and more than

half of respondents predicted it will close between 4% and 5% by year-end

• Prospects for 2011 improved even further, and the majority of executives (45%) expect annual inflation to

close between 3.5% y 4% by year-end.

• 2010年通货膨胀降低的惯性以及国家一步一步的经济复苏稳健，有可能对反馈企业有机积极的影响。

• 他们对于墨西哥财政稳定度抱持较积极正面的态度。

• 本报告的反馈人员认为通货膨胀对经济繁荣不是严重的下降风险，因为他们对通货膨胀的预期心理已改变。上一季有5%的人员预期年通货膨胀率将超过5%，到了2010年10月该比例降至3.8%，这次超过半数的反馈人员预期年底前年通货膨胀率会介于4% 到5%间。

• 大多数的高管人员(45%)预期年底前年通货膨胀率会介于3.5% 到4%间。



Inflation

通货膨胀




Threats to the economy

经济面临的威胁

• Survey results show widespread concern regarding insecurity as the leading hurdle to economic

expansion.

• The respondents uneasiness is also highlighted by the fact that the plurality believes insecurity

represents almost 60% of crucial deterrents for economic prosperity, posing biggest threat and

largest potential to hinder Mexico’s growth pace.

• Likewise, Banco de Mexico’s monthly survey results revealed that the main domestic factors that

could limit Mexican economic recovery are insecurity problems, followed by the lack of structural

reforms.

• 调查结果显示对于信心的普遍担忧成为经济发展的最大障碍。

• 从短期来看大多数的高管人员认为靠不住比墨西哥依靠美国经济的因素以及政治分歧是经济复苏面临的最大风险。

• 预期年底前年通货膨胀率会介于3.5% 到4%间。

• 墨西哥银行上月的报告也表示了目前墨西哥复苏面临挑战是国内不安全和还没达成需要进行改革的协议。




Threats to the economy

经济面临的威胁



越高越乐观

越低越悲观


Government administration

政府绩效评估



越高越乐观

越低越悲观


Special section

企业2011年热点问题



全球商业问题

时间

技术

股东需求

人才

客户需求

留住客户


Conclusions

结论

• Survey outcome reveals that the executives’ outlook has markedly improved from December 2009 to December 2010. Expected

results for their companies are much better now compared with one previous year.

• However, expectations regarding their companies’ future denote caution, so their prospects within 12 months are similar to those in

December 2009 and not either improved significantly in previous quarter.

• On the other hand, although they foresee financial stability and anticipate moderate inflation within the next 12 months, the

executives’ perceptions about insecurity are likely influencing their economic prospects.

• respondents responses reveal increased uneasiness respecting insecurity as they believe it is the threat with the largest potential to

hinder Mexico’s growth pace.

• The respondents perception with regard to the governments’ administration has improved gradually, yet the one exception is their

performance to reduce insecurity, and hence deserving low grades.

• Participants to the survey strongly recognized the government’s ability to control inflation once more。

• 调查结果显示，从2009年12月至2010年12月高管人员的看法已有显著的改善。他们对任职公司的预期较去年好的多。

• 然而，他们对任职公司未来展望的预期显得谨慎，故对12个月内的预期与2009年12月相似，与前几季的的预期亦相去不远。

• 另一方面，尽管高管人员预见未来12个月内财政的稳定度和预期平缓的通货膨胀，他们对信心缺乏的预期很可能影响他们对经济的预期。

• 反馈人员的回应反映出对缺乏信心的担忧日与俱增，因为他们相信这是阻碍墨西哥成长速度的最大潜在威胁。

• 反馈人员认为政府行政能力已逐渐增强，但降低不安全感的作为，导致其因此得到低分。

• 本报告的反馈人员再次强烈认可政府对控制通货膨胀的能力。



Conclusions

结论

越高越乐观

越低越悲观


Chinese Services Group 德勤中国服务组

©2009 Galaz, Yamazaki, Ruiz Urquiza, S.C. Todos los derechos reservados. 26

中国服务组

中国服务组全力支持中国企业进行海外扩张--扩大企业规模，通过各种手段募集资金，收购海外资产。我

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家和地区的德勤成员所参与其中，并且还有多个成员所准备加入。


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电话： +52 (656) 688 6568

电子邮箱：[email protected]

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电话： +52 (55) 5080 6017


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business barometer survey 16 the business pulse• deloitte’s 16th business barometer survey was...

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