business case for building climate resilience at bc … · carbon neutral by 2010 energy...
TRANSCRIPT
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BUSINESS CASE FOR BUILDING CLIMATE
RESILIENCE AT BC HYDRO
Stephanie Smith
Manager, Hydrology & Technical Services
October 31, 2013
Overview
BC Hydro overview
Motivation
Steps to assess risk
Internal Challenges
Partnerships and collaboration
Financing
Future work
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Definition: In Canada, “Hydro” = Electricity
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BC HYDRO
Third largest electric utility in
Canada
Owned by the Province of BC
Regulated by the British
Columbia Utilities
Commission
Serve 94% of population of
BC (1.8 million customers)
$4,684M annual revenue
($975M in energy trade)
BRITISH COLUMBIA’S MAIN SUPPLIER OF ELECTRICITY
VISION: Powering BC with Clean, Reliable Electricity for Generations
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GENERATION BRITISH
COLUMBIA ALBERTA
90% Hydro-electric
31 generating stations
11,300 MW capacity
80% from Peace and Columbia
rivers
Energy varies from 43,000 to
54,000 GWh, dependent on the
weather
Increasing supply from
Independent Power Producers
(20% in 2011)
Small & large hydro, wind,
thermal
Peace River
Columbia
River
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TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
18,500 km of transmission
lines
Across rugged remote
terrain
56,550 km of distribution
lines
230kV line undercut by high river
MOTIVATION FOR BUILDING CLIMATE
RESILIENCE
Risks Today and in the future
Regulatory
Highly Weather-dependent / sensitive
Aging Infrastructure (also opportunity)
Reputation / stakeholder expectations
Long-term Agreements
Vulnerabilities
Changes to Water Supply
Environmental / Fish
Changes to Storm severity
Changes to planning record
Deterioration of predictability
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Assessing Risk
Develop an adaptation strategy using risk-based prioritization schemes
Identify vulnerabilities
Use BC Hydro’s risk-based approach to prioritize
Vuln
era
bili
ty
Consequence Severity
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CLIMATE POLICY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
2007 – BC provincial government Climate Action Plan
Regulatory Requirements
Reduce GHGs from 2007 levels by 33% by 2020
Carbon neutral by 2010
Energy self-sufficient by 2016
BC Hydro Climate Action Strategy
Reducing GHG emissions as a priority;
Continuing to provide clean or renewable energy;
Participating in offset markets to contribute to broader,
regional goals;
Understanding the impacts of climate change to our
operations and activities;
Building capacity among employees to drive change
and achieve results.
Adaptation Strategy Framework
Taken from: National Academy of Sciences, 2010. “Adapting to the Impacts
of Climate Change” National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
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Impact assessment process
Long-term planning models
Develop long-term
acquisition plans
Integrated Electricity Plan
Acquire resources
Build, Buy, Conserve
Operate with new resources
and operating criteria
Flow scenarios Assess impact on
Finance, Environment, Society
- Energy capability
- Operating criteria
- Dam safety
“Average Water”
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Understanding the Science
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
Formed in 2007 as a consortium of researchers, provincial
and federal government, and industry to build capacity
within British Columbia for understanding climate change
and its impact in BC
• Funded by endowment from BC Government, Research
Agreement with BC Hydro
Western Canadian Cryospheric Network
• Federal research grant
• Small contribution from BC Hydro for focused study on
Columbia glaciers
University of Victoria
- Industrial Partner in Federal Research grant
- Dynamical Downscaling over Western Canada
Financing Resilience
Climate change studies
External Costs
~$900,000 2007-2011
~$1.6M 2012-2015
Internal Costs
0.5 FTE senior
hydrologist
$20K communications
Current Operating
Budget: $4.5M/yr
- Hydrometric
monitoring: $2M
- Climate monitoring:
$400K
- Snow monitoring:
$600K
- $100K forecast data
- 17 staff
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Internal Challenges
• Relevance to business
• Internal capacity
• Integrating projections into existing planning
tools
• How to adapt??
• Managing expectations
• Corporate resistance to expressing
uncertainty
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Success Factors
Support from Top – Down
Support from Bottom – Up
Government Policy and Direction
Significant in-house understanding of climate–
related impacts to business
Mature climate change community
Early and open engagement with stakeholders
Regulatory pressure
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Incorporating Climate Change Scenarios
Planning for new hydro generation resources:
“Site C”: third hydro dam project on Peace River – Environmental Impact
Assessment
John Hart generating station refurbishment – Regulatory Approval process
Additional generating units at Columbia River generating stations
Long-term planning
20-year integrated electricity plan – supply and demand
Columbia River Treaty Review process
• Joint set of scenarios agreed with U.S. and Canadian parties
Water license review process
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Transmission Adaptation Examples
Identify tree failure risks as a function of storm severity (UBC)
Modify current maintenance and design standards for lines
Research and demonstrate dynamic thermal ratings for lines and equipment
Researching and applying high performance corrosion resistant materials for
transmission hardware and structures
Building additional redundancy
Rethinking dispatch of storm response personnel
Crossarm made of advanced
high performance composite
material (developed with BC
Hydro R&D)
Transmission Innovations Inc
Future Work
Climate Science
Renewed funding for Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
Expand geographic coverage of hydrologic studies
Incorporate new CMIP5 emission scenarios
Examine other parameters (wind)
Explore impacts to severe / extreme events
Adaptation
Complete System Generation impact assessment of future hydrology
Incorporate climate future into load projections
Assess integrated electricity plan
Communicate results with BC Hydro staff, key stakeholders, regulators, First
Nations, government
Continue investigating technological adaptations
Assess impacts to independent power production
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What does it mean to be a climate-resilient
business?
Understand your risks and vulnerabilities
Involve your stakeholders (internal/external)
Start with highest impact areas
Leverage and share resources (government /
academic / industry associations)
Build local capacity / innovation
Adapt existing tools / practices
Take advantage of times of renewal
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