business jet aircraft industry structure and factors affecting … · 1 morane-saulnier 1955 1967...
TRANSCRIPT
United States International Trade Commission
September 28, 2011
Mike Chase
Chase & Associates "Knowledge is Power"
Business Jet Aircraft Industry
Structure and Factors Affecting Competitiveness
2
The Business Jet Market
Since 1955, Business Jet manufacturers has seen a reduction in the
number of companies from 19 to 7 in 1999. This reduction has come
about as a result of both consolidation and stopped production.
No. Airframe Years
From To Comments Current Owner
1 Morane-Saulnier 1955 1967 Stopped Production of the Paris Jet None
2 Gulfstream 1958 Current Produces Large Cabin Corporate Jets General Dynamics
3 Lockheed Jetstar 1961 1980 Stopped Production of the Jetstar None
4 Rockwell 1963 1982 Stopped Production of the Sabreliner None
5 Lear 1963 Current Produces Mid & Small Cabin Corporate Jets Bombardier
6 Hawker-Siddeley 1964 1976 Produced Mid & Small Cabin Corporate Jets Raytheon
7 Dassault* 1965 Current Currently produces Large, Mid Cabin Corporate Jets Dassault
8 Messerscmitt-Bolkow-Blohm 1966 1982 Stopped Production of the Hansa Jet None
9 IAI 1969 Current Produces Mid-Cabin Corporate Jets General Dynamics
10 Piaggio 1969 1972 Stopped Production of the PD-808 None
11 Cessna 1971 Current Produces Mid & Small Cabin Corporate Jets Textron
12 Aerospatiale 1973 1981 Stopped Production of the Corvette None
13 British Aerospace 1977 1992 Produced Mid Cabin Corporate Jets Raytheon
14 Canadair 1980 Current Produces Large Cabin Corporate Jets Bombardier
15 Mitsubishi 1982 1987 Stopped Production of the Diamond None
16 Beechcraft 1985 Current Produces Small Cabin Corporate Jets Raytheon
17 Bombardier 1986 Current Produces Large, Mid & Small Cabin Corporate Jets Bombardier
18 Boeing 1998 Current Produces Bizliner Corporate Jet Boeing
19 Airbus 1999 Current Produces Bizliner Corporate Jet Airbus
* Dassault stopped producing their small-cabin aircraft in 1990
3
Business Jet Industry Consolidation
1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 1961 1958
Years
General Dynamics
Rockwell American Aero Commander
IAI
Gulfstream
Airbus
Boeing Boeing
Airbus
Dassault
Textron
Raytheon
Bombardier
Raytheon
Bombardier
Raytheon
British Aerospace
British Aerospace
Hawker Siddeley
Learjet
Mitsubishi
Bombardier
Canadair
Learjet
Dassault
Cessna
General Dynamics 1947 - 1976
General Dynamics
1986 - 1992
IAI/Galaxy
2003
Beech
NEW Business Jet Deliveries
New Business Jet Deliveries have been on a steady increase since
2003 with a new record in 2008. In 2009 declined 33.7% to 870. Again
declining in 2010 at 763 just below the peak at 784 recorded in 2001.
Source: Bus Av Wk; GAMA; Analysis and presentation by Chase & Associates
Air
craf
t D
eliv
ere
d
1313 ‘08
New Record
1964 to 2010
US Recessionary Periods
Dec. 1969 to Nov. 1970 11 months
Nov. 1973 to Mar. 1975 16 months
Jan. to July 1980 6 months
Jul. 1981 to Nov. 1982 16 months
Jul. 1990 to Mar. 1991 8 months
Mar. to Nov. 2001 8 months
Dec. 2007 to June 2009 18 months
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
14001964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
“ No Change Years”
Chase & Associates
"Knowledge is Power"
4
870
„09
-33.7%
784
„01
578
763
„10
Worldwide Business Jets* by Continent
In the past five years, the North America Business Jet Market has declined from January
2006 at 77% to 68% in January 2011 of the total worldwide business jets in operation
North America, Canada & Mexico
(3.7%)
2011 11,215
2006 9,344
South America (14.8%)
2011 1,029
2006 516
Africa (9.8%)
2011 386
2006 242
Europe (12.8%)
2011 2,715
2006 1,487
Asia (includes Middle East )
(16.4%)
2011 993
2006 464
Australia/Oceania (13.7%)
2011 188
2006 99
Worldwide (6.3% CAGR)
Jan. 2011 16,526
Jan. 2006 12,152
Source: JETNET/AvData Star Report – Based at; Presentation and Analysis by Chase & Associates
* In operation
wholly owned
(excludes fractional
and shared aircraft)
New versus Pre-Owned
• NEW business jet sales are driven by strong economic activity, corporate profitability, wealth creation, and business investment.
• It is important to understand that business jet markets tend to be bifurcated – purchasers tend to be either NEW aircraft buyers or Pre-Owned aircraft buyers.
JETNET >>KNOW MORE 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0200400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400
New Deliveries
and
Pre-owned
Sale
Transactions
Year
New
Pre-owned
New and Pre-owned Business Jet Delivery
Cycles are different……... NEW DELIVERIES AND PRE-OWNED SALE TRANSACTIONS, WORLDWIDE
Source: GAMA – New; JETNET – Pre-owned
Presentation and Analysis by Chase & Associates
763
„10
1,888
„10
2,232
„07
1,313
„08
1,479
„01
517
„03
8
Are we there yet?
How long is this going to take? The reality is the current business down cycle will last
"longer than you would like"
- But the good news is that we are on the right track.
Chase & Associates
"Knowledge is Power"
9
“Not only is Business Aviation Good For
America, It is Essential For America” An American Perspective by Dave Higdon
“The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time” – Abraham Lincoln
Mike Chase
Chase & Associates
Dallas, TX Web Site: www.mdchase.aero
Cell Phone : 214-226-9882 Email: [email protected]