business update - bernard hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • falling nz...
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AUGUST 2011
Business UpdateBrought to you by:
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The porridge is cooling
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Confidence weakens:Why businesses and consumers are less
confident, but economy is likely to keep growing
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Plenty of automatic stabilisation
The NZ dollar’s fall and lower interest rates will cushion the blow, and
Auckland remains strong.Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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• 2% growth + no inflation• Falling NZ interest rates• What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest• The dairy shock matters• But it’s not everything• China’s slowdown is a thing• What it all means for NZ’s economies & property marketsAuckland Chamber Aug 19
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An elephant in the room
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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But it has been as bad before
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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And other farmers are doing OK
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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An emerging middle class
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Driven by China
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Tourism surges past dairy
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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But China is slowing
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Where’s the inflation?
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Retail prices down for 4 years
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Inflation below RBNZ target
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Real wage growth is v. strong
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Confidence down, but not dire
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Surprise construction drop
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Farming hit hardest
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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So Auckland went vertical
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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On planet Auckland
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Landlords targeted
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Yield doesn’t matter…
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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Another planet
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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A migration correlation
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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• Thank you• Questions• Challenges
Auckland Chamber Aug 19
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• Bernard Hickey•[email protected]• 027 866 0011• www.twitter.com/bernardchickey
Auckland Chamber Aug 19