c1113835 short assignments 1-2

YAccessibility (decreasing)A

BC

D

Key: O: CBDBid rent lines/land use:/A: Retail/B: Offices/C:Residential/D:IndustryLand price curveEquilibrium location

£ XRent- earning capacity (maximum amount which land use can bid for a location)

O Accessibility to central business district (CBD)

Figure 1: Bid Rent Function.

Student Number: c1113835

Short Assignment 1: Land Value & Bid Rent(a)

Both Aristotle's (384-322BC) summary that value is determined by item use/exchange and Menger's (1841-1921) view that "value depends entirely on utility" (Forgarty, 1996), filters into Harvey and Jowsey's (2004: 234-238) definition of land value: the exchange price for property rights to land and its associated resources. Land value is determined by supply and demand of land use, yet indicate that use and value are created simultaneously.

Von Thunen's Agricultural Land Use Theory demonstrates how uses outbid each other for land. William Alonso (1964) modified this concept to the urban discourse, calling it the Bid Rent Function.

Source: Harvey and Jowsey (2004: 237)

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Figure 2: The broad pattern of urban land use.

1

Declining accessibility and density of use.1: CBD2: Transition zone Inner-city, office blocks, labour intensive, low income multi-family dwellings.3: Suburban zone4: Rural-urban fringe.

2

3

4


Harvey and Jowsey (2004: 239) categorize accessibility under two sub-headings: 'general' –

movement cost and 'special' – the result of complimentarity (congregation of synergetic firms/services). Firms require accessibility for factors of production, customer attraction and synergetic establishments. Households require minimal movement cost. Bid rent assumes that the CBD holds the greatest access to these requirements. Thus, land is valued by proximity to the CBD. Uses with higher rent-earning capacity dominate the land nearer the CBD. Figure 1 shows retail outbidding offices due to higher rent-earning capacity. However, as accessibility decreases, retail is dominated by offices, creating concentric land use. Equilibrium location occurs when bid rent intersects with the land price curve.

This essay will investigate the urban morphology of Cardiff by examining land use patterns along Newport Road. A site visit from the CBD periphery to City Road shall provide input for Alonso's bid rent model. The findings shall be categorised under these headings:

1. Land use pattern of Newport Road.2. Changing land use.3. Changing density of use.4. Land use efficiency

1.For full profiles of every building on the

site visit see Table 1 (appendix). The main uses are residential, offices, retail , public institutions and leisure, no particular land use dominates – indicating Newport Road is part of the concentric 'transition zone' identified in Figure 2.

Figure 3 shows the bid rent curve of Newport Road. Where two lines are parallel there are multiple uses at that location. Retail dominates the land closest to the CBD for the advantageous

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Source: Harvey and Jowsey (2004: 254).

Figure 3: Accessibility, rent-earning capacity and land use on Newport Road.

£ XRent- earning capacity

O 100 200 300 400 500

Y metres

Distance (accessibility decreasing)

Key: O: CBDBid rent lines:RetailPublic institutionsResidentialOffices (public)Offices (private)Hotel


accessibility. There is a clustering of synergetic firms; solicitors, public tribunal offices and service stores, e.g. printers (picture 1).

Source: Edge, A. 2013.

Picture 1: Longcross Court with clustering of synergetic shops. (Source: Edge, A. 2013).

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O 100 200 300 400 500

Figure 4: Past Bid Rent Function for Newport Road.

Y metres


Key: O: CBDBid rent lines:RetailPublic institutionsOffices (private)Land price curveEquilibrium location


2.Land use change can be exemplified by five case studies:

Mercure Hotel: office block redeveloped to hotel The Aspect: office block redeveloped for residences and retail Skyscraper News Admiral House: redeveloped office block, repurposed to (2008)

residential use after failing to attract business. Maison Shand House: repurposed to student letting after Cardiff Institute For The Blind shut

down. St James' Church: Non-residential institution, proposed residential scheme (James, D. 2008).

Figures 4-5 illustrate the past and present bid rent of the case studies. They reflect a change in demand; from offices to residential development. Land value is high due to CBD proximity and scarcity in land supply, resulting in intensification of land use by construction of high-rise buildings. Collectively, multiple dwellings generate greater return than leasing less-demanded office space. The decrease of private office space is further demonstrated by dereliction of leaseholds (see pictures 2-4).

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O 100 200 300 400 500

Figure 5: Present/Future Bid Rent Function for Newport Road.

Y metres


Key: O: CBDBid rent lines:RetailPublic institutionsResidential Proposed residentialHotelLand price curveEquilibrium location


Pictures 2-4: Vacant private office space. (Source: Edge, A. 2013).

Government land use is incongruous because it creates market imperfection (Harvey and Jowsey, 2004: 242). Offices (National Resources Wales, UK Border Agency etc) have been located in an area of high residential demand.

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Figure 6: Bid Rent Function for Eastgate House.

Y metres

Building height (accessibility decreasing)

Key: O: Ground floorBid rent lines/land use:/A: Retail/B1: Offices (public)/B2: Offices (private) Land price curveEquilibrium location

O B1 & B2

A


Figure 7: Bid Rent Function for Longcross Court. Key: O: Ground floorBid rent lines/land use:/A: Retail/B2: Offices (private) /E: Available to letLand price curveEquilibrium location


3.Density of use is number of uses on a single location. Figures 6 and 7 show multiple land

uses within two buildings. On an intra-building scale the ground floor acts in a similar fashion to the CBD, it is the area of highest accessibility and highest land value. Retail's high rent-earning capacity outbids all other uses for the ground floor. This is the case for both Eastgate House and Longcross court (as shown in pictures 5-6).

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Pictures 5 and 6: Eastgate House and Longcross Court.


4.Market efficiency occurs at supply and demand equilibrium; the achievement of maximum

rent-earning capacity. Market supply shifts to meet demand, explaining Newport Road's development of high-rise residential. However, the recent construction of Garley House (Picture 7) is inefficient: it has been developed as a three storey office (Planning Committee, 2011). This could be the result of height restriction and a Tree Preservation Order. The restrictions may reduce land value such that offices outbid residential land use. This is an example of Government intervention; an additional factor that infringes development and land use, resulting in land value adjustment.

In conclusion, Newport Road is part of the ever-changing transition zone. Past and present bid rent lines account for land use changes: private office blocks have been dominated by high-rise leasehold accommodation or leisure (Mercure Hotel). In addition, public offices have clustered together most likely for administrative convenience. Bid rent applies on an intra-building scale. Overall, land value does determine land use, as the use with highest rent-earning capacity dominates. However, intensity and type of use creates land value. Demand and supply interaction is shaping Newport road, but market imperfections are caused by governmental restrictions on development.

Word count: 897

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Picture 7: Garley House redevelopment. Source: Edge, A. 2013.

WS N E


References:

Cardiff County Council Planning Committee. 2011. List of development applications for consideration by the planning committee on 16th November 2011 at 2:30pm [Online]. Available at: www.cardiff.gov.uk/objview.asp?Object_ID=26879&[Accessed: 13 November 2013].

Forgarty, M. 1996. A History of Value Theory [Online]. Available at: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/SER/archive/1996/MFOGARTY.HTM [Accessed: 10 November 2013].

Harvey, J. & Jowsey, E. 2004. Urban Land Economies. 6th ed. China: Palgrave Macmillan.

James, D. 2008. Church spire to be converted into seven-floor flat [Online]. Available at: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/church-spire-converted-seven-floor-flat-2141363[Accessed: 13 November 2013].

McCann, P. 2001. Urban and Regional Economics. 1st ed. Oxford: University Press.

Plainview Planning. 2013. Use Classes Order 2012/2013 [Online]. Available at: https://www.canterbury.gov.uk/media/184805/use_class_order.pdf [Accessed: 11 November 2013].

Skyscraper News. 2008. Admiral House [Online]. Available at: http://www.skyscrapernews.com/buildings.php?id=967[Accessed: 12 November 2013].

Skyscraper News. 2006. Holland House [Online]. Available at: http://www.skyscrapernews.com/buildings.php?id=277[Accessed 12 November 2013].

Skyscraper News. 2008. The Aspect [Online]. Available at: http://www.skyscrapernews.com/buildings.php?id=717[Accessed 12 November 2013].

Appendix: Table 1.

Table 1. Land use and distance on Newport Road. (Distance is measured from the Capitol Shopping Centre in the CBD).

The Capitol Shopping Centre Uses: – RetailDistance from CBD: 0mFloors: 2

NewportRoad

133-139 Queen StreetUses: – Retail (Sainsbury's).Distance from CBD: 0mFloors: 3

Page | 8

http://www.skyscrapernews.com/buildings.php?id=717



https://www.canterbury.gov.uk/media/184805/use_class_order.pdf

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/church-spire-converted-seven-floor-flat-2141363

http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/SER/archive/1996/MFOGARTY.HTM

WS N E


NewportRoad

The AspectUses: – Retail – ResidentialDistance from CBD: 13mFloors: 15

Queens BuildingsUses: – Public institution (Cardiff University). Distance from CBD: 100mFloors: 5

Brunel House Uses: – Offices (public) – Public institution (nursery)Distance from CBD: 87mFloors: 16

Williamson House/Garley HouseUses: – Offices (GMB trade union)Distance from CBD: 261mFloors: 3

Waterloo HouseUses: – Offices (private) Distance from CBD: 146mFloors: 4

Oddfellows House Uses: – Offices (societal)Distance from CBD: 274mFloors: 3

Mansion Shand HouseUses: – Residential (Maison Student)Distance from CBD: 186mFloors: 4

Trinity Court Uses: – Office (private) – Public institution (Cardiff Sixth Form College). Distance from CBD: 293mFloors: 5

Hallinans HouseUses: – Offices (private)Distance from CBD: 229mFloors: 5

Cambria HouseUses: – Offices (public: National Resources Wales).Distance from CBD: 329mFloors: 6

Holland HouseUses: – Hotel (Mercure Hotel)Distance from CBD: 246mFloors: 15

31-33 Newport RoadUses: – Offices (public: General Buildings, UK Border Agency).Distance from CBD: 369mFloors: 5

MeKenzie HouseUses: – Offices (Cardiff University finance)Distance from CBD: 347mFloors: 11

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Source: Plainview Planning, 2013.


Admiral HouseUses: – ResidentialDistance from CBD: 383mFloors: 15

St James' ChurchUses: – Public institution (Non-residential).Distance from CBD: 432mFloors: 1

Eastgate HouseUses: – Retail – Offices (public & private)Distance from CBD: 399mFloors: 14

Cardiff Royal Infirmary Uses: – Hospital (Residential Institution). Distance from CBD: 524mFloors: 3 (4 including the tower).

Longcross CourtUses: – Retail – Offices (private) Distance from CBD: 489mFloors: 6


List 1.

Short Assignment 2: Gravity Model

Question 1:

Newton's law of gravity can be extended to socio-economic movement between places (Calhoun, C. 2002). Humanity can be viewed as capital, a factor of production in terms of culture,

Page | 10


economy and society. Humans congregate in settlements which cumulatively increase human capital, leading to an increase in idea and commodity production. Settlements interact with each other for supply and demand of ideas and commodities (Shiode 2013). Settlements compete for interaction;

Source: Shiode, N. 2013

Figure 1 shows the gravity model of i and j's interaction with x. Factors which determine settlement interaction include distance and population. City i has greatest human capital but is more remote than city j, in this situation both j and i have equal socio-economic pulling power on location x. Interaction is calculated by the equation below (Figure 2):

I ij=k (PiP jd ijb )

Where:I is the interaction of settlements i and jk is the constantP is the population at i and jd is distance between i and jb is the power of the distance function

Source: Shiode, N. 2013

This essay shall investigate the socio-economic interaction of Birmingham with London, Manchester and Leeds, the major destinations on the proposed High Speed 2 (HS2). Population figures are obtained from the 2011 Census. For this question distance, shall be measured in a straight line linking city centres. Centres aren't always in the middle of a settlement. City halls are political centres located within CBD, the home to greatest human capital, commodity and idea creation. Therefore distance shall be measured by town/city hall location.

Birmingham's interaction with the other cities shall be measured by gravity models. Firstly, William Reilly's Trade Proportion Model (Figure 3):

Trade proportion of i and j : BiB j

=( PiP j )(did j )

2

Where:B is the proportion of tradeP is the population at i and jd is distance between i and j Page | 11

Pop: 300,000 Pop: 200,000

30 miles 20 miles

Figure 3: Reilly's Trade Proportion

Figure 2: Gravity Model Factors


Trade proportion of London and Manchester:

BLondonBManchester

=( 81739412682528 )( 102.970.6 )2

=6.473(3decimal places)

BManchesterBLondon

=0.154(3d . p .)

Trade proportion of London and Leeds:

BLondonBLeeds

=( 8173941751485 )( 102.992.5 )2

=13.460 (3d . p .)

BLeedsBLondon

=0.066(3d . p .)

Trade proportion Manchester and Leeds:

BManchesterBLeeds

=( 2682528751485 )( 70.692.5 )2

=2.079(3 d . p .)

BLeedsBManchester

=0.481(3d . p .)

Page | 12

Pop: 8,173,941 Pop: 2,682,528

102.9 miles 70.6 miles

Birmingham

London

Manchester

Pop: 8,173,941 Pop: 751,485


Birmingham

London

Leeds

Pop: 2,682,528 Pop: 751,485


Birmingham

Manchester

Leeds


The calculation results are indicative indices which can only be deciphered by comparison. Manchester has a gravity of 2.079 compared with Leeds which has just 0.481. When the result is > 1, the numerator city has higher gravitational pull than the denominator. When the result is < 1, the numerator city has lower gravitational pull than the denominator. Trade proportion indicates that London has a greater trade with Birmingham than the Manchester/Leeds. This could be explain why HS2 has prioritised the London to Birmingham as phase 1. The Attraction Model in Figure 4 further exemplifies London's superior gravitational pull:

Figure 4: Reilly's Attraction of Cities

Ai=P id xi2

Where: A is attraction of i P is the population at i d is distance between x (Birmingham) and i

ALondon=8173941

102.92=771.971(3d . p .)

AManchester=2682528

70.62=538.189(3d . p .)

ALeeds=751485

92.52=87.829(3d . p .)

The Attraction Model can turn these indicative indices into a percentage (Figure 5), giving a clear statistic to arguing for the prioritisation of linking London and Birmingham:

Figure 5: Attraction of Cities (%)

Ai%=A i

A i+A j

Page | 13


Where: A% is the percentage of attraction at i A is attraction at i and j

Attraction of London versus Manchester: ALondon%= 771.971771.971+538.189

=58.9%

Attraction of London versus Leeds: ALondon%= 771.971771.971+87.829

=89.8%

Attraction of Manchester versus Leeds: AManchester%= 538.189538.189+87.829

=86.0%

London's 58.9% share of gravitational pull versus Manchester again reinforces the need to first establish a London-Birmingham link. HS2's second phase has two parts, one travelling from Birmingham to Leeds and one to Manchester (see picture 1). From this data it is clear that the Birmingham-Manchester track must be prioritised.

Source: Backbencher, 2013.

The Breaking Point is the market boundary that effectively sets a mid-point between two settlements (Shirode 2013). The formula in Figure 6 can identify if Birmingham is the boundary between the UK's two largest cities:

Figure 6: Breaking Point

BPij=d ij

1+√ PiP j Where: BP is the breaking point of settlements i and j P is the population at i and j d is distance between i and jBPLondon∧Manchester=

164.2

1+√ 81739412682528

=59.8miles

Page | 14Pop: 8,173,941 Pop: 2,682,528

59.8 miles 43.1 miles 70.6 miles

BirminghamBreaking Point

London

Manchester


In conclusion, London domination of all gravity models, suggesting it is the strongest centre of human capital, ideas and commodities. Limitations of the models include the assumption that human behaviour is rational, never going beyond the breaking point. In reality, anyone from anywhere can shop outside such a boundary. But what about realistic non-linear movement and time constraints? These shall be investigated in question 2.

Question 2:

Birmingham's interaction with the other cities shall be re-measured using road distance for the Trade Proportion Model (Figure 7):

Figure 7: Reilly's Trade Proportion (using road distance).

Trade proportion of London and Manchester:

BLondonBManchester

=( 81739412682528 )( 12587.6 )2

=6.204 (3decimal places)

BManchesterBLondon

=0.230(3d . p .)

Trade proportion of London and Leeds:

Page | 15

Pop: 8,173,941 Pop: 2,682,528London

BirminghamManchester

125 miles 87.6 miles

London


BLondonBLeeds

=( 8173941751485 )( 125121 )2

=11.608 (3d . p .)

BLeedsBLondon

=0.086(3d . p .)

Trade proportion Manchester and Leeds:

BManchesterBLeeds

=( 2682528751485 )( 87.6121 )2

=1.871(3d . p .)

BLeedsBManchester

=0.53(3d . p .)

Measuring via the road network has slightly strengthened the gravitational pull of the northern cities but London still dominates. In terms of travel time London to Birmingham takes 2 hours and 32 minutes compared with 1 hour 24 minutes on HS2, allowing increased settlement interaction (HS2, 2013).

Question 3:

Adjusting relative gravity can be done by using logarithms or changing powers as shown in Figure 8-9 (using attraction of cities):

Figure 8: Attraction of cities (with power adjustment).

ALondon=8173941

102.93=7.502(3d . p .)

Page | 16

Pop: 8,173,941 Pop: 751,485

125 miles 121 miles

Birmingham

London

Leeds

Pop: 2,682,528 Pop: 751,485 87.6 miles 121 miles

BirminghamManchester

Leeds


AManchester=2682528

70.63=7.623(3d . p .)

ALeeds=751485

92.53=0.950(3d . p .)

Figure 9: Attraction of cities (with logarithm adjustment).

log10 A London=log10771.971=2.888(3d . p .)

log10 AManchester=log10538.189=2.731(3d . p .)

log10 A Leeds=log1087.829=1.944 (3d . p .)

Increasing the power function by one has relatively adjusted gravity such that Manchester is more attractive to Birmingham than London. Introducing a logarithm makes the gravity difference comparably smaller.

Further Thoughts:

(a)There are methods that can account for interaction between more than two places. The

Potential Model measures intensity of possible contact between populations at i and all other locations (Rich, D. 1980). There are two models, market potential (Figure 10) and aggregate travel (Figure 11). Market Potential indicatively rates any applicable interaction between one settlement and others. The market potential of London with other HS2 terminals can be compared against Birmingham's' market potential with other terminals:

Figure 10: Market Potential Model

M i= ∑i , j∈N

P jd ij

Where:M is the market potential of settlement iPage | 17


P is the population at i d is distance between i and jM London=∑ ( 8173941102.9 )+( 8173941164.2 )+( 8173941170.3 )=105721.248 (3d . p .)

MBirmingham=∑ ( 1073045102.9 )+( 107304592.5 )+( 107304570.6 )=37227.461(3d . p .)

London appears to have in total higher interaction with the north than Birmingham does with all surrounding HS2 terminals. The cost of transportation between the same competitors shall now be compared using Aggregate Travel (Figure 11):

Figure 11: Aggregate Travel Model

AT i= ∑i , j∈N

Pid ij

Where:AT is the aggregate travel (miles, time cost) of settlement i P is the population at i d is distance between i and j

AT London=∑ (8173941×102.9 )+(8173941×164.2 )+(8173941×170.3 )

¿3,630,847,793

AT Birmingham=∑ (1073045×102.9 )+ (1073045×92.5 )+(1073045×70.6 )

¿285,429,970

London has a higher aggregate travel score, suggesting transportation cost is cheaper, perhaps because cost is spread over eight times as many people.

(b)The Breaking Point model (page 15) shows the boundary line of London at 59.8 miles. It can

be assumed that travelling towards Birmingham results in a continual decline of the socio-economic

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influence of London. The % of attraction model (page 14) demonstrates gravitational pull of a settlement on a straight line, this could be used to assume that as % of attraction decreases, influence decay increases.

Word count: 843

Total word count: 1740

References:

Backbencher. 2013. High Speed Boondoggle [Online]. Available at: http://thebackbencher.co.uk/high-speed-boondoggle/[Accessed: 15 November 2013].

Calhoun, C. 2002. Dictionary of the social sciences. Oxford: University Press.

HS2 Engine for Growth. 2013. Facts, Figures and Journey Times [Online]. Available at: http://www.hs2.org.uk/phase-two/facts-figures [Accessed: 15 November 2013].

Office of National Statistics. 2011. 2011Census: KS101EW Usual resident population, local authorities in England and Wales [Online]. Available at: https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fons%2Frel%2Fcensus%2F2011-census%2Fkey-statistics-for-local-authorities-in-england-and-wales%2Frft-table-ks101ew.xls&ei=ThmFUraSNIeqhAeG1oEo&usg=AFQjCNEH9EOmb-z0rcai6Ht6aQ3iGoxF5w&sig2=Oz8Bga25sAY4t8sBBeHmog&bvm=bv.56343320,d.ZG4 [Accessed: 14 November 2013].

Rich, D. 1980 (Digitised in 2008). Potential Models in Human Geography [Online]. Available at: http://www.qmrg.org.uk/files/2008/12/26-potential-models-in-geography.pdf [Accessed 13 November 2013].

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http://www.qmrg.org.uk/files/2008/12/26-potential-models-in-geography.pdf

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fons%2Frel%2Fcensus%2F2011-census%2Fkey-statistics-for-local-authorities-in-england-and-wales%2Frft-table-ks101ew.xls&ei=ThmFUraSNIeqhAeG1oEo&usg=AFQjCNEH9EOmb-z0rcai6Ht6aQ3iGoxF5w&sig2=Oz8Bga25sAY4t8sBBeHmog&bvm=bv.56343320,d.ZG4



http://www.hs2.org.uk/phase-two/facts-figures

http://thebackbencher.co.uk/high-speed-boondoggle/

c1113835 short assignments 1-2

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