47%

22%

17%

7% 7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Bera Ose Birman Emken Undecided

Bera in First Place, Followed by Ose and Birman

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Christina Coloroso, DCCC Director of Targeting and Analytics

RE: CA-07: Republicans Ose and Birman in Tough Fight for Primary Finish

DATE: May 6, 2014

While Democratic Representative Ami Bera maintains a commanding lead among likely primary election

voters in California’s 7th

Congressional District, Republican challengers Doug Ose and Igor Birman are

locked in a tough fight for second place finish, according to the DCCC’s latest IVR survey of likely primary

voters. Birman’s strong personal favorabilities mean that a last-minute push to grow his profile with

voters could propel him past Ose and on to the general election.

When asked which candidate

voters are likely to support in the

June 3rd

open primary election,

Democratic Representative Ami

Bera draws more support than all

three Republican candidates

combined (47% support), a signal

of his strong, early standing among

voters heading into the general

election. Republican Doug Ose

finishes in second place with 22%

support, followed closely by

Republican Igor Birman (17%

support) and Republican Elizabeth

Emken (7% support). Just 7% of

voters remain undecided.

However, Birman is the Republican challenger with the most room for growth. Only half of likely voters

(50%) are familiar with Birman, compared to 74% name recognition for Ose. More importantly, voters

who are familiar enough with Birman to form an opinion about him view him more positively than

negatively, while voters familiar with Ose are evenly divided. This indicates that as additional voters get

to know Birman in the remaining weeks, his rate of support is likely to improve and he may surpass Ose

in overall support. Birman already leads Ose by 9 points among younger primary voters, and 2 points

amongIndependent/ DTS voters – a solid foundation from which he may stand to gain in the closing

weeks.

The Republican nominee will face Representative Ami Bera in the November general election.

Representative won CA-07 in 2012 with 53% of the vote, and both the Rothenberg Report and Larry

Sabato rate this district as a “Lean Dem” seat.

These results are based on a survey of 567 likely primary election voters conducted May 1-2, 2014 in

California’s 7th

Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents

were interviewed over the phone via an automated (IVR) survey. The margin of error for this survey is

approximately 4.1%.