cai asia / moef better air quality conference agra india, 6-8 december 2004 planning the energy...
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CAI Asia / MoEFBetter Air Quality ConferenceAgra India, 6-8 December 2004
Planning the Energy Scenarios for Asia: How to Minimize Negative Air
Quality Implications
Lew Fulton
Office of Energy Technology and R&DInternational Energy Agency
Talk Outline
Energy use: where are we headed globally and in Asia?
A word on stationary sourcesTransportation, oil and AsiaWhat transport solutions for both
energy use and emissions? Conclusions
What is the IEA?
International Energy Agency is part of OECD
Created in 1975 in response to oil supply disruptions
26 Member countries, mainly in Europe, plus US, Canada, Japan, Korea, Aus/NZ
Secretariat and “think-tank”
www.iea.org
New IEA PublicationsNew IEA PublicationsOil Crises and Climate Challenges: Oil Crises and Climate Challenges: 30 years 30 years
of energy use in IEA countriesof energy use in IEA countries
Biofuels for TransportBiofuels for Transport: An International : An International PerspectivePerspective
World Energy Outlook 2004World Energy Outlook 2004
www.iea.org
Projected Fuel Consumption 2002-2030
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
MTO
E
Growth,2002-2030
2002
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MTO
E
Growth,2002-2030
2002
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004Notes: “Asia” includes East Asia and South Asia except Japan and S. Korea. Excludes Former Soviet Union and Middle East. MTOE = thousand tonnes oil-equivalent; note difference in scaling of the Y axes.
WORLD: fossil energy use increases by 64% by 2030
ASIA: fossil energy use increases by 128% by 2030
Projected Growth in Asian Fuel Consumption, 2002-2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MT
OE
2002 Growth, 2002-2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
MT
OE
2002 Growth, 2002-2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004Notes: “East Asia” excludes China; MTOE = thousand tonnes oil-equivalent; note difference in scaling of the Y axes.
East Asia South Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
MT
OE
2002 Growth, 2002-2030
China
Projected Growth in Fuel Consumption By Sector and Fuel, 2002-2030
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004Notes: “East Asia” excludes China; MTOE = thousand tonnes oil-equivalent; note difference in scaling of the Y axes.
East Asia South AsiaChina
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
MT
OE
Coal Oil N. Gas Other
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MT
OE
Coal Oil N. Gas Other
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MT
OE
Coal Oil N. Gas Other
Coal Use: What Are the Implications?
Clearly a “dirty” and high CO2 fuel, but much cleaner coal use is possible Advanced technologies for coal cleaning/emissions
scrubbing can reduce all pollutants dramatically Carbon capture and storage may eventually offer near-zero
CO2 emission coalUS planning to build a large prototype zero-emission
(for all pollutants) coal plant (“Future Gen”) Will rely on coal gasification to extract hydrogen; technology
has many possible applicationsTrouble is higher costs; China and other Asian
countries are showing interest in these technologies but uptake through 2030 expected to be relatively small.
Strong emissions control regulations and incentives will be needed and could make a huge difference.
Oil Use, 1971-2030Supply to Transportation v. Other Sectors
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
MT
OE
Other
Transport
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
MT
OE
Other
Transport
Source: IEA historical data and projection from World Energy Outlook 2004
World Asia
1971 2002 2030Asia Share of World Oil Demand 5% 16% 25%Transport share of Asian Oil Demand 28% 36% 47%
Decomposition of Projected Asian Energy Use by Passenger Mode, 2000-2050
(average annual pct change)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
LDVs Mini-buses
Largebuses
2-wheelers
Vehicle travel
Stock EnergyIntensity
Energy Use
Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004
Car ownership will continue to rise, especially in the developing world
Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004
Cars per 1000 people
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD NorthAmericaOECD Europe
OECD Pacific
FSU
Eastern Europe
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
2-wheeler growth could also be substantial
Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004
2-wheelers per 1000 people
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD NorthAmericaOECD Europe
OECD Pacific
FSU
Eastern Europe
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
IEA/World Energy Outlook 2004Crude Oil Price Projections
Oil prices are assumed to drop back from recent highs over thenext 2 years, but rebound after 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
do
llars
pe
r b
arr
el
Real $ (2000) Nominal
1st oil shock
2nd oil shock
Invasion of Kuwait
Invasion of Iraq
Saudi netback deals
Asian economic crisis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
do
llars
pe
r b
arr
el
Real $ (2000) Nominal
1st oil shock
2nd oil shock
Invasion of Kuwait
Invasion of Iraq
Saudi netback deals
Asian economic crisis
A Key Variable: Oil Demand Growth
Annual demand growth
1% annual growth rate
3% annual growth rate
mb/d
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
mb/d
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
What do the trends mean for emissions?Projected total Non-OECD road transport emissions if
countries eventually adopt euro-type standardsIEA/SMP Projections; Reference case assumes a 10-year lag time; all
scenarios assume fairly strong enforcement
PM-10
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
per
yea
r Extra five-year lag
ReferenceCase
Five yearsshorter lag
NOx
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
nn
es p
er
yea
r
Extra five-year lag
ReferenceCase
Five yearsshorter lag
VOCs
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
per
yea
r Extra five-year lag
ReferenceCase
Five yearsshorter lag
CO
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
per
yea
r
Extra five-year lag
ReferenceCase
Five yearsshorter lag
Changing the travel/energy use trends: What are some fuel/vehicle options?
The following slides outline some areas for where we see promise:Vehicle efficiency improvementNear-term alternative fuelsHydrogen / Fuel cell vehiclesGreater attention to travel demand
management and non-motorised modes
Vehicle Efficiency OptionsThere are many technologies available to
improve vehicle efficiency at relatively low cost
IEA estimates that 25% reduction in new car fuel use/km could be achieved by 2020 at fairly low cost Strong policies will be needed; China has
taken an important step in this regardSomewhat lower potential for other
modes, but still significantThis will save fuel but won’t directly
impact pollutant emissions (except hydro carbons to a small degree)
HybridsHybrid-electric vehicles are somewhat
different from other “incremental” technologies
By running the engine at more constant load, significant pollutant emissions reductions can be achieved. Prius is certified SULEV in California
Though still expensive, there may be significant market potential for hybrids in Asia
There is no inherent reason why hybrids can’t run on any fuel specification (e.g. higher sulfur fuels)
Gaseous Fuels and Liquid Biofuels
CNG and LPG are very clean fuels and can provide important emissions reductions Quality of vehicle conversions and availability of fuels is
at issueBiofuels (ethanol from grains, biodiesel from oil
seeds): Provide significant GHG reductions (20-50%) (sugar
cane up to 90%) Can cost 2-3x gasoline before taxes Ethanol provides some emissions benefits (PM,CO) but
also higher volatility (evaporative HC) Biodiesel clearly cuts diesel PM, HC; NOx may rise No major vehicle compatibility issues for either fuel,
though slight modifications needed to ensure proper running
Hydrogen / Fuel Cells: Promise, but when?
Potential for zero pollutant emissions and near-GHG-free road vehicle sector by 2050, but: Vehicle costs must come down by at least 10x before
large volume production can begin Large investments in refueling infrastructure will be
needed, perhaps €0.5 trillion across IEA countries Sources for large-scale low-GHG hydrogen production
are neededThus many questions to resolveNew technology appears likely to come first for
cars, then coaches then trucksShould Asia lead or follow?
Travel Demand ManagementAny reduction in travel growth rates
reduces emissionsKey is to provide mobility without
emissionsGrowth in car ownership is
inevitable but it can be slowed and alternatives provided
A model: cars in Europe are driven far less than in the US because of travel alternatives
Travel Demand Management: Promising Options
Many important measures; will mention three here: Get the prices right
Tax vehicles and fuels in line with social costs; Differential taxation based on vehicle emissions is a
powerful tool
Invest in strong transit systemsLearn from Latin America – BRT makes a huge
difference
Encourage cities to be friendly to non-motorized transit and pedestrians
One Possible Alternative Transport Future Worldwide
Average Vehicle Energy Intensity Improves by 10% (beyond improvements expected in reference case); Hybrids reach 40% of LDV and medium-duty truck market share by 2030
Biofuels reach 20% share of all motor fuels worldwide by 2050
Fuel cell vehicles start to be sold in 2020 and reach 35% of global sales market by 2050 for light-duty vehicles and medium-duty trucks
Possible Future: Resulting Reduction in Global Transport Oil Use
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Oil
Us
e I
nd
ex
(2
00
0 =
1.0
)
Reference Case Combination of measures
Conclusions The world is likely to experience strong growth in fossil energy
use over next 50 years, and Asia set to lead the way Coal is inexpensive and will be used; but much cleaner coal is
possible if somewhat higher costs are accepted and investments are made
Though oil use will increase substantially, we may not see oil prices rise much through 2030 (in real terms)
In any case, oil use does not have to mean much higher pollutant emissions over this time frame
Oil will be with us, but the potential exists for significant reductions in oil use in transport even in 2020-2030 time-frame
Some transportation options look especially promising for pollutant emissions reductions Hybrids Gaseous fuels Hydrogen fuel cells (in the very long run) Changes to travel demand and structure