calculating the reproductive ratio. reproductive ratio, r 0 the average number of new infections we...
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![Page 1: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Calculating the Calculating the Reproductive Reproductive RatioRatio
![Page 2: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Reproductive Reproductive Ratio, RRatio, R00
• The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic.
• For Standing Disease, R0 is 2
Step 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
No. new infection
s1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128
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Counter Counter PlaguePlague11stst scenario scenario
No. on die
No. of new infections
1 0
2 0
3 1
4 1
5 2
6 3
What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person?•Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R0 for this scenario.
![Page 4: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Counter Counter PlaguePlague11stst scenario scenario No.
on die
No. of new
infections
Av. no. new
infections
expected
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 1
4 1
5 2
6 3
What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person?•Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R0 for this scenario.
R0 =
1
61
62
63
6
7
6
![Page 5: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Counter Counter PlaguePlague22ndnd scenario scenario
No. on die
No. of new infections
1 0
2 0
3 1
4 1
5 1
6 2
What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person?•Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R0 for this scenario.
![Page 6: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Counter Counter PlaguePlague22ndnd scenario scenario No.
on die
No. of new
infections
Av. no. new
infections
expected
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 1
4 1
5 1
6 2
What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person?•Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R0 for this scenario.
R0 =
1
61
61
62
6
5
6
![Page 7: Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022082917/5514d06c55034640138b6050/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Counter Counter PlaguePlague
No. on die
No. of new
infections
Av. no. new
infections
expected
1 ? ?
2 ? ?
3 ? ?
4 ? ?
5 ? ?
6 ? ?
How could you set up Counter Plague so that R0 equals:
1.54
•What is the largest value of R0 you can get in Counter Plague?
2
3