Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016

S. Chabrillat (BIRA-IASB), H.J. Eskes (KNMI) and the CAMS-84 team

Evaluation of the upcoming version of the global production system

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o-suite versus e-suite • o-suite = operational run delivering global

AN, FC of Reactive Gases and Aerosols (GHG not considered here)

• Model = C-IFS (Cy41R1) - CB05 (from TM5 model)

• e-suite = experimental run will be o-suite next week

• 2 FC/day: from AN at 0UTC and 12UTC. FC from 12UTC available at 22UTC: 12h earlier than o-suite

• Same model, same vert. grid, same assim. obs.

• Horiz. resol. ↗ from T255 (~80km) to T511 (~40km) model better uses horiz. resol. of emissions (0.5° anth+bio, 0.1°x0.1° fires)

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Evaluation approach• Compare o-suite and e-suite vs same indep obs. as

quarterly reports, w/same methodology & for same species: tropo O3, tropo NO2, CO, CH2O, aerosols, strato O3

• Schedule:• End of March: quicklooks to ECMWF - in case major

issues are found which could imply aborting the e-suite run.

• 20 April: deadline for input (to KNMI & BIRA)• 21-26 April: telecon to discuss findings, agree on

conclusions • 26-29 April: report to ECMWF, decision on upgrade • week of 2 May: publish report including possible

feedback

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Exemples of quicklooks used for “early green light”

CO vs MOPPIT, IASI NO2 vs MAXDOAS at Xianghe (Beijing)O3 vs surf GAW surf at HPB

O3 vs sondes: N. mid-lat bias Aer OD550 model comp.

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Evaluation of tropo O3 : vertical profiles

biases slightly change but not significant

more differences in lower layers

O3 sondes IAGOS aircrafts

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Evaluation of tropo O3 : surfaceUse GAW, ESRL, AIRBASE networksAt most stations, no significant differences (both underestimate obs over EU region) except for stations located in complex terrain where significantly improved resultslikely due to the increased model resolution.Largest improvements: Boulder, HPB (close to mountain ranges) and

Mediterranean best case: Al Cornocales, Spain

Station (ESRL)

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o-suite vs e-suite model resolution around Al Cornocales

Current o-suite grid does not resolve Gibraltar strait at latitude of this station; e-suite grid starts doing it

80 km

40 km

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Evaluation of tropo NO2

• vs GOME-2 tropo column avg over std regions no improvement

• vs DOAS at Xianghe (near Beijing, high pollution): significant improvement from surface to 2km

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Evaluation of tropo CO

• no significant/consistent improvement vs IAGOS profiles or MOPITT, IASI satellites or ground-based FTIR (NDACC, TCCON)

• Exemple: IAGOS, 3 East Asia airports varied results

Evaluation of CH2O, strato O3

• no significant differences

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Evaluation of aerosols• vs Aeronet sun

photometers: very similar.

• e-suite simulates slightly less sea salt and dust AOD than current o-suite.

• Maps of Angstrøm coefficient (low values = coarse particles = more dust) confirm less dust in central Asia in the e-suite.

• Maybe cause for slight degradation of performance (against AOD) in China?

• Elsewhere: no consistent degradation/improvement.

e-suite o-suite

AOD

Angström

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• New version operational next week. Full eval report publised 29 April at http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/quarterly_validation_reports

• No significant differences should be expected from this global production system upgrade. Exceptions:

• Decrease of dust aerosols in central Asia; not in obs slight degradation of performance

• Improvements may be expected close to surface due to horiz resol increase (~80km ~40km) especially in • regions with complex terrain (O3 ; noted on Boulder,

HPB)• Highly polluted regions (NO2 ; noted in Xianghe)

• Good training for next model upgrade (expecting more impact!)

Conclusions