Canadian Demographics to the present

Background to Current Population

• Future directions are combinations of present and future trends

+ ?

• The most important demographic fact in Canadian history

Census

• An official, usually periodic enumeration of a population, often including the collection of related demographic information.

• An official count of the population of a particular area, such as a district, province, or nation

Canadian Census

• First census is 1851

• Census is every ten years until the 1950’s when a change is made to every 5 years

• The ‘current’ census is available on CD rom

• Pressure to return to decennial pattern - impact on business (US pattern)

Pre WWIpre 1914

• Born in the first decade and half of this century (high birth rates, high immigration rates)

• Very large cohort for the time

Pre WWIpre 1914

• Most of present group are female

• Seniors are not like homogenized milk– an 85 yr. old is different than a 65 yr. Old

• As this century unfolds their numbers still are considerable

• Their impact will also be felt on the 40 and 50 yr. olds who will have to care for them

• 2006 – Males 47 300 Females 131 100

– Total (aged 90 +) 0.5% of pop • Cannot separate out those 95+

WWI1914 - 1918

• Smaller cohort

• 2006 – Males 115 700 Females 228 700

• Total 1.1% of population aged 85 - 89

• Non-expansion in the last part of the previous century

• 1900 start of higher CBR and migration

• Impact of war at bottom of pryamid

• Minimal impact from world depression after WWI

• CBR up and migration a factor -link to baby boom

• 2006 – Males 629 900• - Females 880 900

• Total 4.7 % aged 75-84

1920 - 1929

Depression1930 - 1939

• The ‘Dirty Thirties’

Woody Guthrie

• Tragedy of forced migration

• Out migration increases and the CBR drops

• Cohort fairly low in size

Advantages

• Cohorts that encounter a situation of full employment around labour force entry age, such as the cohorts born in the 1930s, may experience higher lifetime levels of employment and savings potential than cohorts that experience the opposite

• Such differentiated cohorts deal with each life stage in different ways, and are likely to require (and demand) quite different retirement experiences.

• Relatively advantaged ‘seniors’ with seniors discounts

• 2006 Males 1 081 400 Females 1 191 700

• Total 7.0 % aged 65-74

• Some still with senior jobs (right place, right time)

WWII1939 - 1945

• The government closes the country to migration (as it did during the Depression)

• The CBR sinks to a then record low

• Slow escalation of the CBR as it is apparent after 1943 that the war will be won– not as many troops overseas as in WWI and not as

many killed (60,661 in WWI and 42,042 in WWII)

• The cohort length is only 7 years compared to the 10 years of the Depression so this group is slightly smaller

• 2006 Males 778 500 Females 805 800

• Total 4.9% aged 60 - 64

• The expansion of pop. Until the 1920’s - pop now 70’s and up

• The diminishing of the base - CBR linked to Depression and War - pop now late 50’s to early 70’s

Post War - “The Boom”

• Canada has the 2nd highest living standard in the world

• One of the world’s military powers

• Booming economy

• Migration is opened and the CBR soars

– Growth rate 1951 - 1961 is 2.7% per year, the highest in the western world

• Note change starting about 1943

• Massive increase in young

• Baby boom stretching over decades

• Boom ‘officially’ starts in 1946 or 1947

• Lasts until 1964 or 1966 (census)

• Only a few countries have this baby boom and Canada’s per capita rate is the largest

• During the peak year Canadian women average over 4 births

One Third of Our Population

• There are different boomers

A Front end or Old Boomies (1947 – mid 50’s)

– early entry means advantages in schooling and jobs (entrenchment)

B Mid Boomies (mid 50’s – 1961)

– Later entry, more competition, less advancement and money

C Back End Boomies or Generation X– Born 1961 to 1966 and forever in the shadow of the

other boomies– more competition for school space, high house prices,

lower end jobs + recession in the 70’s and 80’s

• By age 30 front enders are earning 30% more than their parents but back enders are earning 10% less

• It has been argued that large cohorts experience greater intra- and inter- cohort competition for available resources (such as education, jobs and income) than do small cohorts.

• As a result, large cohorts are likely to have a more negative labour market and earnings experience, and, subsequently, to have later and lower fertility, than small cohorts.

• Potentially substantiating the argument, both the extremely large cohort born in 1971, and those immediately surrounding it, have been strongly affected by unemployment, and have the lowest and latest fertility to date.

• (Easterlin 1988 and others)

• 2006 Males 4 898 800

• Females 4 934 300

• Total 30.2% aged 40 to 59

The Unexpected Conclusion

Baby Busters• Born 1967 ? to 1979 (note data stretch to 1981)

• Better access to higher education, poor economy but younger than Gen. X, higher computer skills

• 2006 Males 3 436 800 Females 3 379 400

• Total 20.8% aged 25 to 39

• Note the passing through of older generations

• Rapid increase in the Boomies

• Quick drop in CBR showing up by 1966 but still higher % of the population – note higher than some boom cohorts

Trends of the 70’s

• The society as a whole is female dominant since 1976 (still variation by age)

• Fewer migrants that quickly adopt patterns of lower birth rates

• Migration patterns change - female dominant

• End results - society that is aging and changing in sex ratios

• 2/3 of Canadians are of working age and the YDR is at an all-time low

– implications for saving/spending

• Dominance of Boom Generation

• Sharp and unexpected decline continuing past 1976

• In 1996 - 5.4 million aged 17 to 29

The Echo1980 - 1995

• Perhaps starts earlier

• There are fewer births than in the Boom but close

– 1959 17.5 million produce 479,000 Boomers

– 1990 27.7 million produce 406,000 babies

Trends of the 80’s

• The CBR continues to drop– Historical low (lower than the Depression)

• Average age for Canadian women to have their first child moves into the 30’s (baby boom - 22)– link to baby echo delay

• CDR’s fall but the number of deaths increases (more elderly but large numbers in low risk years - 30’s)

• Natural increase still accounts for 77% of our growth (government push for increased migration)

• Marriage rates drop. The marriage rate for singles is at an all-time low

• Divorce rates rise - peaks at 70,000 per year (every 100 marriages - 37 divorces)

• Implications for family structure, disposable income, demands on time

• An all-time low for TDR - except for government taxes

• Note that the Baby Busters are still greater in number than the Depression and War cohorts

Baby Boom Echo

• 2006 Males 3 338 200 Females 3 180 400

• Total 20.0 % aged 10 - 24

• The Future?

Millenium Busters

Born 1996 to 2010

2006 Males 1 821 200 Females 1 736 000

Total 11.0% aged 0 to 9

Relatively small cohort - advantages

2002

Where Are We Going?

• Canada's total fertility rate has been declining.• In 1999, Canadian fertility hit a record low

of 1.52 children per woman• From 1979 to 1999, the fertility of Canadian

women aged 20 to 24 decreased nearly 40%, and fertility among those aged 25 to 29 declined about 25%.

• Fertility rates among women aged 30 and over have increased but this increase did not offset the decline in the fertility rates of younger women.

Why?

• Canadian women use more effective contraceptive methods at a high rate

• In Canada, among women aged 15 to 19 who use contraceptives, 86% used a pharmaceutical method, primarily the pill, and 14% use a natural or barrier method, mainly the condom.

• The average age at first childbirth is at 30 in Canada

• There is some evidence that young people in Canada may be experiencing more difficulty entering the labour market and may postpone forming a couple or having children.

Consequences• Because of low birth rates, migration has

already become the main contributor to population growth in Canada, a trend expected to continue.

• Currently, natural increase - the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths - is relatively low, but remains positive in all provinces.

• If fertility remains at the current level, deaths are expected to exceed births in Canada in about 20 to 25 years