Canadian Foundation for the Canadian Foundation for the Americas and The North-South Americas and The North-South

InstituteInstitute

Ottawa, CanadaOttawa, Canada

October 19, 2009October 19, 2009

Migration in the Americas: Migration in the Americas: social insurance and social insurance and

management challengesmanagement challenges

Our topics for today:Our topics for today:

What is going to happen with What is going to happen with migratory flows?migratory flows?

How will social insurance How will social insurance respond?respond? PolicyPolicy AdministrationAdministration

The Mercosur developmentThe Mercosur development

Renewed international Renewed international migration migration

International migratory flows have International migratory flows have become a major social and economic become a major social and economic force for the Americas. force for the Americas. In the US: 1.25 million annually or 40% In the US: 1.25 million annually or 40%

of total population growth. of total population growth. Around 35-40% come from Mexico and Around 35-40% come from Mexico and

Central America and are undocumented.Central America and are undocumented. Another 25% come from China and India an Another 25% come from China and India an

tend to be high-skill workers. tend to be high-skill workers.

The economic balanceThe economic balance

Naturally, immigrants are drawn to expanding Naturally, immigrants are drawn to expanding high-demand cities, which in turn end up with high-demand cities, which in turn end up with a higher share of both types of immigrants.a higher share of both types of immigrants.

It is now generally accepted that immigrants It is now generally accepted that immigrants pay more taxes than the benefits they receive pay more taxes than the benefits they receive in the short-run. in the short-run.

However, if their children are eligible for However, if their children are eligible for poverty benefits and they end up receiving poverty benefits and they end up receiving subsidized social benefits (such as minimum subsidized social benefits (such as minimum pensions), the balance may be reversed in the pensions), the balance may be reversed in the long-run.long-run.

•

The demographics of the Americas favor a The demographics of the Americas favor a continuation of migration for “some time”:continuation of migration for “some time”:• The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to comeyears to come• The large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties are entering The large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties are entering the market, and women are working much more.the market, and women are working much more.

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Per

cent

age

Andean Central America

Southern Cone North America and British Caribbean

Mexico and the Latin Caribbean

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

Per

cent

age

Andean Central America

Southern Cone North America and British Caribbean

Mexico and the Latin Caribbean

Labor Force Participation Rate

Men Women

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004)

Migration is an important social and Migration is an important social and economic phenomenon for many small and economic phenomenon for many small and large countries of the region:large countries of the region:

• Temporary and return migration has become much more common, causing a larger increase in gross flows that in net flows.

• The Americas will continue to be an important place for migration, particularly for within-continent, where Canada, United States and Argentina will remain as net receivers of migration for the next half century.

Total 791,568 North america 769,266 South America 8,456

Subtotal 773,947 Mexico 693,592 Canada 764 Guatemala 22,670 Honduras 23,789 El Salvador 17,911 Other LA 15,221

DEPORTABLE FOREIGNERS FOUND IN 2008 IN THE UNITED STATES

Other LA: Cuba, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Brazil. Ecuador,

Colombia.

Total. 1,949,695

Africa. 25,234Asia. 664,607Europe. 497,821North America. 576,997Oceania. 45,674South America. 133,834Unknown. 5,528

Subtotal 1,334,604Canada 159,878China 32,625France 68,637Germany 85,153India 315,674Japan 164,724Mexico 360,903United Kingdom 147,010

TEMPORARY WORKERS AND FAMILIES ENTERING WITH VISA TO THE UNITED

STATES IN 2008

In the United States the main sources In the United States the main sources of temporary workers are in the of temporary workers are in the

AmericasAmericas

2001 to 20062 Before 1991 1991 to 1995 1996 to 2000 2001 to 20062Share of period in total Canadian

immigration 55% 13% 14% 18%

Country of BirthShare of countries in table 0.87 0.84 0.83 0.79 United Kingdom 0.15 0.03 0.02 0.02 People's Republic of China 0.04 0.08 0.13 0.14 India 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.12 Philippines 0.03 0.08 0.06 0.07

Western Europe and Japan 0.25 0.04 0.04 0.04 United States 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.03

Eastern and South East Asia 0.08 0.15 0.09 0.03 Eastern Europe 0.09 0.12 0.11 0.08 Latin America and Caribbean 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.06 France, Belgium, Switzerland 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 Muslim Asia, North Africa 0.03 0.13 0.17 0.18

Number of immigrants in 2006 6,186,950

Share of total immigration in period of immigration to Canada

According to the study by According to the study by CardCard

Cities with higher rates of immigration have Cities with higher rates of immigration have experienced higher population growth (the experienced higher population growth (the offsetting out-migration of natives is relatively small)offsetting out-migration of natives is relatively small)

There is a modest widening of the wage gap There is a modest widening of the wage gap between more and less-skilled natives as in impact between more and less-skilled natives as in impact of foreign immigration.of foreign immigration.

Local fiscal effects seem to be small, as effects on Local fiscal effects seem to be small, as effects on rents are also small. rents are also small.

Neighborhood and school externalities posed by the Neighborhood and school externalities posed by the presence of loe-income and minority families may be presence of loe-income and minority families may be larger and may explain the negative reactions of larger and may explain the negative reactions of natives.natives.

Asian Hispanic

All US 2.7 5.6Outside Top Cities 1.5 3.3All Top Cities 5 104

By City (CBSA)New York 5.8 9.4Los Angeles 5.2 20.1Chicago 3.4 6.5Dallas 3.4 12.4Filadelphia 2.6 1.6Houston 3.1 13.4Miami 1.6 23.6Washington DC 5.5 8.6Atlanta 2.6 6Detroit 2.4 0.9Boston 4.3 3.4San Francisco 13.7 10.9Phoenix 1.9 11.8Riverside 2.9 15.2Seatle 6.9 1.6Minneapolis 4.1 2.4San Diego 6.6 12.1

Immigrant Presence and Minority Shares in Urban Labor Force

Data Transfers and Validation System in Mercosur

The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. It covers countries with a population of nearly It covers countries with a population of nearly

one quarter of the Continental population one quarter of the Continental population (200 million out of 800). (200 million out of 800).

Migration is high in the area. Migration is high in the area. A satisfactory administrative arrangement has A satisfactory administrative arrangement has

also been worked out.also been worked out. In the NAFTA region, Central America and the In the NAFTA region, Central America and the

Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by international social security agreements.international social security agreements.

New technologies allow countries a radically improved New technologies allow countries a radically improved administrative management of migrants’ cases.administrative management of migrants’ cases.

The administration of social security agreements can The administration of social security agreements can also benefit substantially from the application of new also benefit substantially from the application of new technologies.technologies.

Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forumsmultilateral forums

See the difficulties governments face in achieving See the difficulties governments face in achieving agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and Geneva (2006)Geneva (2006)

The risk is that the space for global governance can end The risk is that the space for global governance can end up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest nations at the marginnations at the margin

Conclusions Conclusions

Conclusions Conclusions Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights

has proven to be one of the most difficulthas proven to be one of the most difficult

Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with

commercial negotiationscommercial negotiations

Social security works on a territorial base, with rights Social security works on a territorial base, with rights

and obligations defined by national governmentsand obligations defined by national governments

Despite totalization agreements the great majority of Despite totalization agreements the great majority of

international migrants on the American continent are international migrants on the American continent are

not covered by them not covered by them

Uncertain expectationsUncertain expectations

The bilateral way cannot go much farther The bilateral way cannot go much farther without the leadership of some of the large without the leadership of some of the large countries.countries.

The multilateral way has advanced through The multilateral way has advanced through the Ibero-American Agreement.the Ibero-American Agreement.

Countries have begun linking the social Countries have begun linking the social protection issue with the migration issue:protection issue with the migration issue:

Questions related to human rights.Questions related to human rights.

Issues on fairness of global economic system.Issues on fairness of global economic system.