Urban Task Force Cancun 2006

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Acknowledgements

Arq. Carlos ConstandseIng. Sigfrido Paz ParedesArq. Jorge LoboIng. Alberto OrizaSr. Herbert CarrilloIng. Rodrigo de la PeñaIng. Diego de la Peña SánchezIng. José Enrique ChacónLic. Margarita MartínezSr. Oscar CadenaLic. Luis Arce Lara Sr. Ernesto Muñoz

Dr. Chis Pyke, US EPA, Global ChangeResearch ProgramLindy Dingerson, PerotSystems, RemoteSensing Hazard, NOAA CoastalServices Center.Dr. Jim Titus, US EPA, Sea Level RiseAlan E. Strong, NOAADr. Bruce Richmond, USGSChristopher Junkins, Meteorologist,National Hurricane Center, TropicalPrediction CenterWayne P. Szameitat, Sales Manager,Optech IncorporatedDr. Edward Olsen, NASA, Jet PropulsionLaboratoryDr. Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, NASA, JetPropulsion Laboratory

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Contents

About the Urban Task Force 4Team 5Background 6Scenario Planning 9Context 14Scenario A 16Scenario B 24Scenario C 31Summary of Scenarios 35Tourism Planning 37Environmental assessment 38Hurricane Wilma 41Conclusion 52

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About the Urban Task Force

The Urban Task Force (UTF) is aninitiative form the International Society ofCity and Regional Planners (ISoCaRP)directed at reinforcing its position as arecognised international association ofindependent professionals concernedwith urbanism whilst reaching out tolocal authorities, and communities atlarge, to provide expert and unbiasedadvice on pressing planning issues.

The UTF is organised as a one weekworkshop sponsored by Cancun's localauthorities and undertaken by speciallydesignated ISoCaRP Senior Planners.

The UTF taking place in Cancun inFebruary 2006 intends to provide localauthorities with a fresh, rational,sustainable and implementable set ofideas towards urban improvement afterthe incidence of hurricane Wilma inOctober 2005. The diagnosis andensuing planning recommendations aimfor Cancun to be better prepared forpotential natural disasters whilstinspiring an urban model that balancesgrowth and a sustainable horizon,aiming for a dynamic economy, anintegrated society, and an improvedquality of life for all citizens in the region

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Team

ISoCaRPAlvaro Arellano MexicoKrystyna Mieszkowska PolandJim Reilly USARic Stephens USAHein Struben NetherlandsGijs Wolfs Netherlands

Ismael Fernandez Mexico, VicePresidentPablo Vaggione Spain, UTF Team Leader

Pierre Laconte PresidentMilica Bajic Secretary GeneralJudy van Hemert Executive Director

IMPLANEduardo Ortíz Jasso DirectorMargret BongersRocío Garza LeonardLuis Ernesto Pérez FernándezIsaac Rincón GarcíaGerardo García BeltránÁngel Loreto ViruelPaul Blanchon

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Background

Cancun's population is approximately500,000 inhabitants on the tip of theYucatan peninsula, in the state ofQuintana Roo, Mexico.

Brief history In the early 1950sCancun was an almost unpopulated andundeveloped island just off theCaribbean Sea coast of the Yucatanpeninsula. It was the home to threecaretakers of a coconut plantation andsmall Maya ruins. The government ofMexico decided to develop a touristresort on Cancun, which was originallyfinanced by a USD $27 million loan fromthe Inter-American Development Bank.A causeway was built to link Cancun tothe mainland, together with aninternational airport and an entire city forworkers, with housing, schools andmedical facilities.

Development of Cancun started in 1970and grew rapidly in the 1980s. Despiteinitial scepticism that forced the Mexicangovernment to finance the first eight

hotels, Cancun soon attracted investorsfrom all over the world. The city hasgrown rapidly, covering the former islandand the nearby mainland. Most'cancunenses' here are from Yucatanand other Mexican states. A growingnumber of residents are from the rest ofAmerica and Europe.

Urban form Three main areas canbe identified in Cancun's urban form.The first area consists of a narrow stripof 22 km extending North-South alongthe axis of Boulevard Kukulkan, betweenthe Nichupté Lagoon and the CaribbeanSea. This linear development, aptlycalled the Hotel Zone, concentratestourism-related development withmultitude of resorts, hotels and supportbusinesses, as well as historical ruins.

The second area is known as Pueblo deApoyo (literally, Support Town), and islocated North of the Kukulcan strip. Itsdistinctive pentagonal shape wasplanned by Enrique Landa. This area is

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otherwise known as centro (downtown)and concentrates a number of civilamenities such as the city hall. Itscharacter is mainly residential.

The third area, Zona de las Regiones,located to the North of the centro, is anattempt to cope with Cancun'sconsiderable growth. The urban fabric inthis area consists of a large orthogonalcarpet, dedicated to residential use, withsingle family housing the dominanttypology. Its capacity is for a remarkablehalf a million of people. However, itsroads are narrow and open areas andcivic amenities scarce.

Hurricane Wilma Wilma wasthe third Category 5 hurricane of the2005 season. At its peak, it was themost intense tropical cyclone everrecorded in the Atlantic basin and thetenth most intense globally, with thelowest atmospheric pressure everrecorded in the Western Hemisphere of882 millibars at sea level, exceeding the

record previously held by HurricaneGilbert, which also had impacted theYucatan Peninsula.

On 21 October, Hurricane Wilma madeits landfall on Mexico's YucatanPeninsula as a powerful Category 4hurricane, with winds in excess of 150mph. The hurricane's eye first passedover the island of Cozumel, to reachPlaya del Carmen at around midnight on22 October EDT, with winds near 140mph. Portions of the island of Cozumelexperienced the calm eye of Wilma forseveral hours with some blue skies andsunshine visible at times. The eye slowlydrifted northward, with the centrepassing just to the west of Cancun.Some portions of the Yucatan Peninsulaexperienced hurricane force winds forwell over 24 hours. The hurricane beganaccelerating in the early morning hoursof 23 October, exiting the north-easterntip of the Yucatan Peninsula andentering the Gulf of Mexico as aCategory 2 storm.

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Wilma made several landfalls, with themost destructive effects felt in theYucatan Peninsula, particularly inCancun. At least three deaths havebeen reported, numerous personsreported missing, and the insureddamage is estimated at between US$5and US$8 billion. The devastation wasalmost total with many of the principalroadways from the Hotel Zone, whichwas completely flooded. It has beenestimated that 95% of the tourisminfrastructure was seriously damaged.Once the storm left the peninsula, anumber of the beautiful beaches ofCancun had been washed away.Thousands of local and foreign touristswere hosted in improvised refuges. Allairport and harbour operations werecancelled between 21 and 25 Octoberdue to weather conditions. It isestimated that the local tourist industrylost over US $15 Million daily. Manyhouses were devastated, and many jobswere lost.

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Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a method forlearning about the future byunderstanding the nature and impact ofthe most uncertain and important drivingforces affecting our future. It is a groupprocess which encourages knowledgeexchange and development of mutualdeeper understanding of central issuesimportant to the future. The goal is tocraft a number of diverging stories byextrapolating uncertain and heavilyinfluencing driving forces. The methodis widely used as a strategicmanagement tool, but has also beenused for enabling other types of groupdiscussion about a common future suchas territorial planning.

The team adopted the scenario planningmethodology with the aim of provoking athorough reflection on the challengesand opportunities facing Cancun.Therefore, the outcome should beviewed as a tool to support theMunicipality and its stakeholders inpreparing the Strategic Plan 2030.

Informed by a series of presentationswith local experts in regional andmunicipal planning, GIS andmeteorology, and a number of dialogueswith representatives of the privatesector, the team was in position topropose alternatives that illustratehypothetical yet possible futures for theregion, each associated with a uniqueset of public benefits and costs.

The team elaborated the followingscenarios for consideration:

Scenario A The economic base ofthis scenario focuses on mass tourism.In this setting, the competitive factor forCancun can be described as "sun andsand at an attractive price". Cancun'scompetitors are those destinations whichcan offer comparable climate conditionsat comparable prices.

The target consumer of this scenario arethose tourist concerned with price, agroup that generally chooses all-inclusive packages for their holidays.Hence, the main actors in this model arethe tourism industry integrators,international tour operators and hotelchains, such as Barceló, Melia andStarwood.

In tourism industry models based in thequantity of visitors, the role of the hostterritory can be described as a providerof natural resources and workforce for afee. In most such cases, resourceconsumption (i.e. land, water, energy,waste) is very high and the economic

margin for locals rather low. Theworkforce's required skills can beconsidered as low. The model's labourforce comprises mainly low wageservice industry workers, who havereduced opportunities for culturaldevelopment and little access to broaderskills such as Information Technology asthis is not usually required in most jobscreated.

In this scenario the role of institutionalpolicy making can be considered asmarginal. The main actor in thescenario is the private sector, specificallytravel industry integrators who controlkey elements in the value chain (visitor'stransport from and to their origin,accommodation, leisure and food anddrink consumption) and commoditiselocal resources and labour. This is theno-action scenario as it is the most likelyto happen should no policy initiative beundertaken to redirect currentdevelopment trends.

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Scenario B This hypotheticalfuture contemplates a change inCancun's economic base towards amixed model by which Cancun wouldact as a services hub of regional stature.

The economic base consists of acombination of the currently existingtourism industry, which would beretained to some extent, with theaddition of a cluster of services focusingon the tourism industry reaching theYucatan peninsula and the nearCaribbean region. Services provided tothe region can include financial services,telecommunications, education, health,transportation, logistics and distribution,and light manufacturing.

The scenario's competitive factor can bedescribed as "employment in paradise"as the capacity to attract skilled humanresources to operate the model is vital.As said, the target consumers are theprofessionals in addition to a lessrelevant visitor figure. The model's main

actors are the public sector, which isresponsible for providing the enablingpolicy and the required infrastructure,and the corporations, which are requiredto address a location commitment tocreate a services critical mass.

Cancun's resource consumption, as aregional centre providing services tosupport the regional tourism industry,can be described as medium as themodel calls for a compact, higherdensity urban development. Margins forservice-focused cities tend to be high ifthey are capable of aggregatingsignificant value for their surroundingregion. Education and culturaldevelopment are crucial in this scenario,as the economic model requires highworkforce skills, with special mention toinformation and communicationstechnology.

The role of institutional policy making iscritical. Without the vision and initialimpulse from the public sector it is

unlikely that the private sector canindependently undertake suchtransformation as it does neither haveenough human resources to implementsuch complex, comprehensive vision northe financial mechanisms to avoid shortterm obligations.

Scenario C Keeping its focus onthe tourism industry, this Scenariocontemplates a switch in target marketfrom mass tourism to a qualitative-basedprofile with less number of visits. In thissetting, Cancun's competitive factor is itscapacity to offer a distinctive touristexperience adding cultural, educationaland health related activities to those pullfactors expected to be found in a sunand sea destination. The targetsegment consists of tourists looking forenvironmental quality, historic andcultural heritage, unique design andconstruction, and unparalleled service.

To make this model possible, a closecooperation between sectors is required.

Institutional instruments must be put inplace in order to ensure quality in newdevelopment and standards of service,and to financially support thetransformation of the built stock frommass-oriented to increase itscompetitiveness in terms of quality. Thedynamism of the local entrepreneur isvital as the model is based on a numberof local private sector ventures ratherthan relying in large tourism industrymultinationals. The concordance withenvironmental lobbies in developmentpolicy is also indispensable as themodel needs the highest environmentalstandards to be competitive.

The Cancun role can be thereforedescribes as a quality provider of visitorexperiences capitalising on natural andbuilt resources and innovative businessinitiatives. As concentration of visitors islower compared to mass-driven models,it is viable to think that the burden on theenvironment would decrease. A modelbased on quality requires achieving

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significant margins. For that, anunparalleled service level is needed;hence, workforce skills are important aswell as an efficient ICT system.

The role of institutional policy making isvery important. Besides guaranteeingthat the development model preservesboth environment and built heritage, thepublic sector has to provide the initialimpulse in the transformation of theeconomic model, including educationalcampaigns, financial support forrenovation of the hotel infrastructure,micro credits for local entrepreneurs,workforce capacity building, andproviding mechanisms to ensure servicequality.

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Economic base Focused on mass tourism Mixed, cluster tourism services, convention destination, tourism

Focused on quality tourism

Cancun role Provider of natural resources and workforce for a fee

Regional centre providing logistics and services support in tourism industry to a broad region; transportation hub

Quality provider of visitor experiences capitalising on natural and built resources and innovative business initiatives

Urban policy role Marginal Crucial Important

Competitive factor Sun and sand at an attractive price

Employment in paradise Preserved environment and unique cultural heritage

Consumer Tourist concerned with price, generally opting for all inclusive packages

Professionals; tourists to a lesser extent

Tourists looking for environmental quality, historic and cultural heritage, unique design and construction, and unparalleled service

Main actors Tourism industry aggregators, international tour operators and hotel chains

Public sector infrastructure and corporations

“Quality police”, hotel entrepreneurs (perhaps local), environmental lobbies

Required amount of consumers in economic model

High Medium Low

Margin

Low High High

Required workforce skills

Low High Medium

Culture and human development

Low High Moderate

Information Technology development / use

Low Crucial Low

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Implications In Scenarios A and C,Cancun continues to be a major tourismdestination and consequently the touristindustry remains the predominanteconomic sector. The differencebetween them is that scenario Acontinues to focus on the tourism marketpresently drawn to Cancun, whilescenario C envisions a market shifttowards the luxury or exclusive nichemarket.

Whilst "A" shows immediate stableconditions, in the long term we foreseeonly a modest growth perspective, if nota decline. Scenario C, whichaccommodates tourism programme in amore distributed development pattern,would offer stability in the long term bypreserving the natural beauty of theregion.

Scenario B hypothesises a rather radicaldiversification of the economy and aconsolidation of the metropolitan area.This means a need for higher

investments in infrastructure on the shortterm, but with strong benefits on a longterm. The following table illustrates theprogrammatic assumption for eachscenario.

The tourist scenarios A and C willalways show urban growth mainly drivenby tourist accommodation as well ashousing for tourism industry employees.Scenario B however depends highly onmetropolitan density for reasons ofinterdependence of diversified urbanfunctions.

Thus it can be concluded that growth inscenarios on A and C, strongly related tothe tourism industry, will always leadtowards extending territorial boundaries,while scenario B will have toaccommodate growth by theconsolidation of the metropolitan area byincreasing the existing density within thecity boundary.

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Scenarios

Base Base +30 Escenario A +30 Escenario B +30 Escenario C+30

Cancun - población 800,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 900,000Riviera Maya - población 100,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 600,000Población total 900,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000

Cancun - personas por vivienda 5 160,000 3 333,333 333,333 500,000 300,000Riviera Maya - personas por vivienda 5 20,000 3 166,667 166,667 166,667 200,000Total personas por vivienda 5 180,000 3 500,000 500,000 666,667 500,000

Cancun - habitaciones 30,000 60,000 60,000 30,000 45,000Riviera Maya - habitaciones 45,000Total - habitaciones 105,000

Densidad constante, incremento de área Area actual urbana de Cancun ha 14,000 17,544 17,544 26,316 15,789Densidad hab/ha 57 57 57 57 57Viviendas por ha 11Incremento de área ha 3,544 3,544 12,316 1,789

Area constante, incremento de densidad Area actual urbana de Cancun ha 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000Densidad hab/ha 57 71 71 107 64Vivioendas por haIncremento de densidad hab/ha 14 14 50 7

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Context

Topography Ancient systems ofsand mounds exist along the coast.Lowlands between these high featurestrap water during hurricanes and cancause extensive flooding and waterdamage. While the development of anumber of drainage channels willcontribute to solve local flooding duringnormal rain events, it would not be costeffective to design a drainage system tocope with hurricane-induced flooding.

Additionally, improved drainage into theexisting mangrove lagoons and wetlandscould incur negative ecological impacts.Therefore, a design principle thatfocuses growth along the tops of thesemounds and avoids development in low-lying locations has been considered.The team has also proposed a seconddesign principle that creates a limitednumber of horizontal integrations,crosswise through the mounds, whichmight be developed as interconnectingroadways and visual corridors.

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Context: Cancun today

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Scenario A: "Ciudad Turismo"

This scenario assumes that the region'stourism infrastructure, residentialneighbourhoods and commercialdistricts will continue to develop much asthey have done in the past 35 years.

Future development is assumed topreserve the current lineal growthpattern and other tendencies previouslyestablished. The actual Zona Hotelerawill increase its density. The Pueblo deApoyo where support workforce residesis expected to grow, although to a lesserdegree, based on the existing gridpattern extending in a North Westdirection. This scenario has a strongparallel with the coast development ofWaikiki, Hawaii, dominated by large-scale tourism developers.

Further expansion of the Hotel Zonealong the coastline would increase thepressure on infrastructure and urbanservices such as the provision of energyand waste management. Emission willalso increase, as well as land and water

consumption. A larger service sector willresult in increased stress to the work-force residential areas outside the city.

It is expected that the density increaseof the Zona Hotelera will lead to higherpressures on traffic and very likely acongested situation at the connectingintersection nearby the city centre.

This suggests that abroad andcomprehensive traffic strategy needs tobe prepared, considering publictransport as a vital element.

In this regard, it was made known to theteam that the local government isalready considering a multi-million dollarbridge across the Nichupte lagoon.Whist Scenario A is the only of thatwould create conditions which mightsupport this investment, the UTF teamrecommends reconsidering the bridgeproject as perhaps increasingintersection options and improving thecirculation pattern at both ends of the

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Hotel Zone could render the bridgeunnecessary.

In contrast, the area existing betweenthe airport and the city centre is to beconsidered as an independent projectthat can be implemented in parallel or ata later stage. It is believed that thisdevelopment evidences little synergywith the scenario of mass tourism.

Scenario A: Urban form

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Scenario A: Mobility

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Scenario A: Mobility

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Scenario A: Transport

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Scenario A: Land use

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The local government is evaluating thebenefits of constructing a bridge acrossthe Nichupte lagoon. Two possiblelayouts over the lagoon are beingconsidered. An analysis of trafficvolume showing the current status andthe situation after the construction of thebridge do not show a significantdifference in the Boulevard Kukulkansegment, and the congestion in the Eastend on the boulevard is still remarkable.This suggests that broadening theboulevard with a bridge is less importantthan solving the intersection at the endof the Boulevard, and hence, the bridgewill not solve congestion.

Scenario A: A new bridge?

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Current

New Bridge

Scenario A: Possible location of government-proposed bridge

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Scenario B: "Ciudad Central"

This scenario sees Cancun develop as aleading commercial and service centreserving its surrounding region and alarger influence zone in Yucatan and theCaribbean. The tourism industry will beretained, but the main source ofemployment would be in service relatedjobs.

The model will require a remarkabletransformation in the accommodationstock, from hotel rooms tocondominiums in order to providehousing for professionals moving in. Inaddition, hospitals, schools, and othersupport facilities need to be upgraded orbuilt from scratch. As much as theinvestment in infrastructure such asroads and airports is critical, so is a highexpenditure in education and culturalactivities to both attract and prepareprofessionals.

To fulfil the growth perspective foreseenin this Scenario, urban development willneed to be carefully planned including a

series of catalytic projects. Specifically,these comprise the site of the new civiccentre in Malecon and the creation ofthree major corridors in addition to theHotel Zone.

1. Via Lopez Portillo Corridor: Amixed use district with an emphasis onsmall commercial/service developmentsthat serve both local residents and thebuilding industry in the Hotel Zone.

2. Libramiento Merida -Playa delCarmen Corridor: An industrial districtintended to serve the import-exportactivities of the region with relevanttrade/logistics components andinfrastructure.

3. Cancun-Puerto MorelosCorridor: A Regional District that wouldcontain a myriad of corporateheadquarters and professional offices,major health facilities, universities andspecialised services. The internationalairport becomes an important node for

commerce as well as tourism, and thetwo ports are to be developed aspotential doors to the Caribbean.Somewhat like San Diego, California,this balanced economic scenarionecessitates a new vision for futuredemographics and investment.

Future urban development is structuredin three distinctive axes: between theairport and the city centre, along theextension of the highway goingwestwards, and a bypass between thetwo main highways, connecting theairport and creating a compact,triangular urban lay out.

These new city strips induce increase ofurban density within the existing citygrid. The distinctive urban areas expressa variety of programmatic clusters thatrepresent a diversification of economicactivity. In general terms, the WesternCorridor acts as a small scale yetregional production and service area,the Southern Corridor as a more

extensive industrial zone specialised ontransport and value added logistics,taking advantage of the proximity of arelatively well equipped airport. TheEast Corridor will feature a cluster ofuniversities, research, technologyservices and government institutions.The model banks on the quality oflandscape and climate in attractinghighly educated human recourses fromall over the world.

The Scenario assumes a diversificationof economical activities in the city itself,an efficient infrastructure network that ishighly based on connectivity and astrengthening of social networksbetween management, knowledge,technology and production. It isproposed that the existing bus servicebe complemented by a light rail system.

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Scenario B: Urban form

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Scenario B: Mobility

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Scenario B: Mobility

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Scenario B: Transport

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Scenario B: land use

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Scenario B: Section at Boulevard Colosio and lagoon

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Scenario C: "Ciudad de Comunidades"

The "City of Communities" model wouldplace emphasis on preserving theenvironmental quality or the region andthe redevelopment of a number ofcommunities within the region, such asPuerto Juarez and Puerto Morelos whichhave grown organically around smallports to the north and south on theCancun city proper.

Tourism would continue to be a primaryeconomic driver, but its territorialfootprint will show a dispersedarrangement which peaks marking thesecommunities as well as other attractorssuch as the cenotes (immense, deep,open wells) located to the southwest ofCancun.

With some similarity to the smaller-scaledevelopment of Oregon or New Englandcoastlines, this model woulddecentralise the tourism economy. Itwould also facilitate opportunities formore diverse tourism experiences andsupport ecotourism development at thecenotes and coastal villages

In many ways, this scenario is theopposite of Scenario A: tourism isscattered around in a much bigger areaalong the Mexican Riviera. Smallcommunities of high quality touristcompounds are imbedded in the naturalbeauty of the landscape. For thedemanding tourists, it provides a senseof privacy, almost a thematic approach,which might as well be one of theunique selling points of the region. At thesame time, the relative separation of thecontained settlements makes it possibleto diversify the tourism opportunities.The sprawl of the communities can beseen as an archipelago of differentexperiences, there's something tochose.

To reduce daily commuting, each villageis to be accompanied by housingfacilities for local inhabitants that work inthe tourist industry. The small scale inthe mix of locals and tourists could evenbe one of the attractions of the vacation(authentic informality).The sprawl ofsmall communities makes it possible

that the ecological green zones functionlike a whole; the urban settlements arejust 'plug-ins'. Normally, such lay outscause negative effects on theenvironment because of increasedmobility. To prevent this, thecommunities should have an autarchic(self-sufficient) character: Cancun as thecity of villages.

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Scenario C: Land use

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Scenario B: Mobility

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Scenario C: Transport

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Summary Scenario B

2030 Population 2,000,000

Identity Cosmopolitan

Nodes Malecon – Airport Corridor

Districts Airport Corridor, Hotel Zone, Ejidos

Landmarks Malecon

Limits Sea, lagoon, airport

Axis Malecón-Aeropuerto-Puerto Morelos Libramiento - Carretera Mérida-Puerto Morelos José L. Portillo

Summary Scenario A

2030 Population 1,500,000

Identity Globalised

Nodes Isla Cancun—Zona Hotelera

Districts Zona Hotelera

Landmarks Hotels

Limits Sea, lagoon, airport

Axis Hotels-Airport Corridor New Bridge over Nichupté Lagoon

Summary Scenario C

2030 Population 1,500,000

Identity Mexican Caribbean

Nodes Malecón, Isla Cancun, Puerto Morelos, Puerto Juárez

Districts Zona Hotelera, Puerto Morelos, Ejidos, Ruta de los Cenotes

Landmarks Malecon

Limits Sea, lagoon, airport

Axis Malecón-Aeropuerto-Puerto Morelos Libramiento - Carretera Mérida-Puerto Morelos José L. Portillo

Summary of Scenarios

New urban development

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Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Tourism Planning

It is relevant to mention that the tourismindustry in Cancun will be an enduringelement in city planning. Therefore it isto be noted that the tourism supply anddemand economics for tourism dictatespecific planning requirements. On thesupply side, tourism destinations musthave five essential components:

1. Attractors - Cancun has numerousattractors that include sunny tropicalweather, beaches, surf and sea,cenotes, and close proximity to manyarchaeological sites. Preservation andenhancement of these attractors shouldbe a tourism planning priority.

2. Infrastructure - Access andaccommodation are key components. Inparticular, the airport establishes the first"sense of arrival" setting the stage forthe tourism experience. Improved publictransportation ensures visitor travel tobroaden the economic benefits.

3. Services - Integrated services (as inland use) is fundamental to expandingtourism.

4. Information - This element includessignage (symbols preferred overtranslation), website(s), kiosks, and formany public spaces, a visibleinformation officer.

5. Promotion - Advertising, news media,websites, publication, and all kinds ofpromotional activities/events shouldkeep Cancun in the hearts and minds ofinternational travellers.

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Environmental assessment

The following evaluations have beenprepared to allow stakeholders in theCancun region to compare the impactsof the alternative development scenarioson the environmental and their relativeresistance to the destructive forces ofhurricanes. The accuracy of assessmentis limited by the general nature of theassumptions and information used, sothe analysis operates only withqualitative estimates which aremeaningful solely for comparisonpurposes.

The analysis has been presented in theform of matrices. For each alternativethe following plan components havebeen assessed: hotel zone, urban shape(city of Cancun), development of theother settlements within Benito Juarezmunicipality, mobility (understood asflows of people and goods as well asmeans of their transportation), airportand public utilities (excludingtransportation).

The environmental impact matrixcompares both environmental andquality of life issues. The environmentalfeatures assessed are: Nichupté lagoon;mangrove areas along the coast (southof Cancun); forest systems; and finally,reef/beaches. The quality of life issuesexamined include water resources;noise level; air quality; and urbangreenery /landscaping. The overallmatrix shows the impact of eachcomponent within each scenario oneach of the environmental and qualitylife variables. The classicalenvironmental impact matrix analysesseparately its magnitude and importancebut due to the general form of scenariosthis impact estimation is limited to a fourgrade scale of effects: adverse; lessadverse; neutral; and favourable.

The matrix estimating the potentialhurricane impact uses three variables -the principal detrimental factors of thehurricane: high-speed wind; rainflooding; and, storm surge. The impact

strength is estimated within a three-grade scale: from the least to the mostserious potential damage (or from themost to the least resistant item).

Scenarios and their environmentalimpact

Although the overall impact of allscenarios (measured by the number offilled matrix cells for each of them) canbe considered as similar, it should bepointed out that its differing planelements are affected differently in eachscenario.

Scenario A shows the greatest numberof adverse environmental effects.Further and intensive development ofthe hotel zone around the lagoon, andthe possibility of creating a new bridgeacross it, threaten the fragile ecosystem.It will also exploit most intensively thebeach on Cancun's Zona Hotelera. Thetransport of tourists, if still by buses and

taxis, will adversely affect the acousticand air quality. Both hotel and municipalgrowth will increase the demand forwater supply and public utilities. Asecond landing strip for the airport willbe needed and its construction will resultin loss of forest and increased noise,which will have a negative effect onfauna in the surrounding zone. Growthof mobility between the city, airport andRiviera Maya as well as within thesprawling area of the city itself willproduce great volumes of air pollutionand high level of noise. Lower emphasison the development of the othersettlements within the municipality willhave less adverse environmental impact.

In Scenario B the development impactlessens on the lagoon (it is assumed toreceive a nature conservation areastatus) and beach but increases on theforest as the city will need to grow,despite the higher densities. Theterritorial expansion can threaten theaquifer zone, which supplies the

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Cancun's drinking water. The problem ofworsening the life quality within the citywill be similar to the scenario A.

In scenario C the environmental impactof the development is generally lessstrong than in the other scenarios (in thehotel zone even the favourable effectscan be expected) but it affects a muchgreater area. The pattern of dispersedtourism will affect above all the naturalareas south of Cancun - the mangroves,forest, reef and beaches althoughprobably not so badly as in the scenarioA. The necessary mobility increase willstill have strong effect on the quality oflife.

Impact on environmental factors

Factors related to quality of life(especially the levels of noise and airquality) are most strongly threatened bythe developmental forces within allscenarios. The adverse effects

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario C

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario B

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario A

Urban greenery

Air quality

NoiseWater re-sources

Reef/beach

ForestMan-groves

Lagoon

Factors of the life qualityEnvironmental variablesEffect on

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario C

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario B

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario A

Urban greenery

Air quality

NoiseWater re-sources

Reef/beach

ForestMan-groves

Lagoon

Factors of the life qualityEnvironmental variablesEffect on

accumulate also on the lagoon in theScenario A, the forest in Scenarios Aand B and all environmental variablesoutside the city in the Scenario C.

An analysis of the hurricane impactmatrix shows that the biggest potentialdamage should be expected within theScenario A due to the concentration ofgrowth adjacent to the ocean. Amongdevastating hurricane powers, the strongwinds and flooding can affect the wholearea of Benito Juarez municipality whileonly the coastal strip is prone to thestorm surge. From this point of viewScenarios A and C, developing touristactivities in this area, are almost equallylittle resistant in the case of the nexthurricane. The potentiality of damagefrom flooding depends on the size of thesurface prone to such disaster so it isthe greatest in the Scenario B, whatresults from increase in the built-up areaand possibility of affecting the greaterutilities network.

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario C

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario B

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario A

Storm surgeFloodingWindPotental damage

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario C

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario B

Urban utilities

Airport

Mobility

Other settlements

Urban shape

Hotel zone

Scenario A

Storm surgeFloodingWindPotental damage

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Less More

Hurricane Wilma

A brief history of Hurricane Wilma

On October 14, 2005, a large monsoon-like system over the entire Caribbeanand an upper level cyclone over thesouthwest Atlantic spawned a lowpressure disturbance near Jamaica. ByOctober 15th, the storm was designateda tropical depression centered 190nautical miles east-southeast of GrandCayman Island. Moving slowly anderratically westward, the storm slowlystrengthened and was designatedtropical storm Wilma on 17 October.Then turning northward, on 18 October,the growing storm was designated ahurricane, and within a few hours Wilmaunderwent the most remarkableintensification ever recorded. Between11PM UTF on 18 October and 5AM UTFon 19 October the sustained wind speedincreased from 109 MPH to an amazing172 MPH, peaking 3 hours later at 175MPH over open water.

According to the official 'report1' issuedby the NOAA National Hurricane Center:"In a span of just 24 hours, Wilma had

intensified from a 60 kt2 tropical storm toa 150 kt category 5 hurricane, anunprecedented event for Atlanticcyclones…During the strengtheningepisode, Air Force reconnaissanceobservations indicated that the eye ofthe storm contracted to a diameter of 2n mi3; this is the smallest eye known toNational Hurricane Center staff."4

Fortunately, this extremely violentcategory 5 storm abated somewhat dueto the effect of other weather systemsover the Gulf of Mexico. Then, it turnednorthward and at 2145 UTC October21st, the eye of this strong category 4storm made land fall on Cozumel Island.Six hours later the hurricane centercrossed to the coast of the YucatanPeninsula, in the vicinity of PuertoMorelos.

Overland, it quickly lost some of itspower, dropping first to a category 3 andfinally to a category 2, still a large andpowerful hurricane, before passingnorthward and out Mexico early on 23October. Illustration 1 shows the track ofthe storm and its maximum wind speedas it crossed over Mexico.

Although Wilma's intensity weakenedonce inland, the storm had beenundergoing a cycle of eyewallreplacement prior to making landfall andhad formed a double eyewall structurethat was clearly visible on local radar.This unusual structure (not illustrated inthe following discussions of wind)subjected the coast of Quintana Roo tofour eyewall passes rather than thenormal two and led to a doubling in sizeof the area affected by the hurricaneforce winds5.

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1 Pasch, Richard J., Blake, Eric S., Cobb III, Hugh, D. and Roberts, David ,P., "Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Wilma, 15 -25 October 2005", NOAA National Hurricane Center, 12 January 2006. 2 Kt = knots. 1 knot = 1.15 Miles per hour = 1.852 Kilometers per hour3 nautical miles. A nautical mile = 1 knot4 Ibid. Page 1

5 National HurricaneCenter release 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005THE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA....THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH ADIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI. WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALLREPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN ALMOST 48 HR AGO....

Hurricane Damage Mechanisms

There are three forces that cause thedamage from hurricanes:

1. Wind;2. Waves; and,3. Flooding.

Wind - The flowing diagrams producedby the United States NationalOceanographic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) display winddirection and intensity at various timesduring Wilma's page through Mexico.

These views illustrate Wilmaapproaching Cozumel and the YucatanPeninsula. At the time of the firstillustration, on October 20th, the windsnear the center of this category 4hurricane were sustained at 149 milesper hour (MPH). North-northeastbreezes of 20 mph were felt in theCancun region. However, a day later, asthe 145 mph category 4 hurricaneapproached Cozumel, winds had pickedup near Cancun to 45 mph coming fromthe north.

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In diagrams W2 and W3, the winddirection shifts to the east and intensifiesto 85 mph, as the hurricane approachesand then begins to cross CozumelIsland.

Diagrams W5& 6 show the hurricanepassing through the Peninsula. Becausethe storm begans to pass over asubstantial landmass and it lost itssource of energy (heat from the ocean),and lessened from a Category 4 stormto a Category 2 event - still a large anddangerous storm. Sustained winds nearthe center of the storm dropped from135 mph to 100 mph. Diagram W5illustrates the period of time whenCancun received its highest winds andits most severe damage. Sustainedwinds from the east-southeastapproached 100 mdp and gusts likelyreached 119 mph. Eighteen hours laterthe storm had passed south of the cityand then up the peninsula to the east ofCancun, which was now only buffeted by50 MPH south southeast winds.

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Finally on 23 October the hurricaneenters the Gulf of Mexico and headednorthward, not to return. Winds duringthis period continued to be southsoutheasterly and gradually declinedfrom to 45 mph, as shown in W8.

Wind damage can be from debris orfrom structural failure induced by thewind itself. "It is relatively rare for glassor other components of the cladding tofail under the action of wind alone"6

according to reports. However there wasan enormous amount of glass brokenduring Wilma, likely caused by wind-borne debris. Once the building shell isviolated, water damage is inevitable andeven structural failure can result as windenters the structure and can cause acascade of interior door and even wallfailures. Most studies of glass damageidentify roofing gravel as a main causeof the damage7. However it is possiblethat beach sand and gravel did much ofthe damage to the oceanfront hotelproperties.

Branches, wood and landscapematerials also can become dangerousprojectiles during hurricanes; a coconutis reported to have penetrated a windowand then an interior wall of house nearPuerto Morelos, as if shot from acannon. Roofs and signs are especiallyprone to wind induced failure. Roofs tearoff and signs and various outdoorstandards bend and break. Winddamage is responsible for mostelectrical service failures during a storm.Landscape materials also are blownover by the wind. In fact landscapedamage is such a reliable predictor ofstorm intensity that it is one of themetrics used to categorize hurricanes onthe Saffir- Simpsons scale.

446 Ibid. cochran page 7 see: http://www.wbdg.org/design/env_wind.php

Overwash is the term for wave-drivenseawater that flows over low areasalong the coast and floods interiorareas. Overwash was not a majorproblem from Wilma, as the mainland islocated on limestone bedrock that gentlyslopes upward from the sea. There wassome localized overwash, which mostlyaffected mangrove vegetation.

Beach transport consists of the erosionand deposition of sand along theshoreline. It is influenced by the winddirection and waves, and in the case ofWilma, the highest winds occurred fromthe east southeast, which resulted in thescouring of sand along the northernreaches of the coastline - this effect wasespecially evident along the Barrierisland off of Cancun, and sanddeposition at southerly locations alongthe coast. In Puerto Morelos, severalsmall piers are now buried in sand.Besides causing the obvious damage toswimming beaches, erosion exposedfoundations in some locations.

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Waves - There are three types of wavedamage: storm surge; overwash andbeach transport. Surge is water pushedby the force of the storm. In fact thereare five processes which act on stormsurge: "pressure effect, the direct windeffect, the effect of the earth's rotation,the effect of waves, and the rainfalleffect" . Of these processes, the mostinfluential are pressure and wind. Theextremely low pressure found in Wilma'scenter pulled water higher near thecenter of the storm so, as the center ofthe storm approached the coastline, thewater in the ocean and its waves werehigher. In addition the friction of thewaves piled the water up, and as seenin the preceeding diagrams Wilmaproduced very high winds. Winddirection also pushes waves higher, aneffect termed 'wind set-up', so thatwaves are higher downwind and lowerat upwind locations. If we refer back todiagram W5, we can imagine the surgehitting the Cancun region. The stormcenter was near by, so the water levels

were lifted by the lower barimetricpressure, the winds were at their peak inthe area of Cancun picking up morewater into waves and the shape of thepurple isobars in the diagram illustratesthat wind set up must have beenpushing the surge waves higher yet.

The slope of the seabed near the shoregreatly influences the amount of damageon the shore from waves. If the seabedapproach to the shore is deep, there isless friction and the waves do not buildup. The Seabed along the YucatanPeninsula is shallow, characterized by agentle rise approaching the shore. Withthis seabed condition, surge builds intolarge powerful waves, with the potentialfor great damage to structures near theshore. Mitigating this situation areoffshore reefs, which allow waves tobreak, losing much of their power. Offthe barrier island at Cancun, there areno reefs - the waves build and roll inunabated. But south of Cancun, theoffshore reefs protect shore properties.

Flooding - Rainfall on the YucatanPeninsula from Wilma ranged from 9 to14 inches. As the soil is thin and theunderlying geology consists of fractured,but only moderately porous, limestone,water drained slowly in many locations.In urban areas, consisting of largeamount of impervious surfaces, naturaldrainage was further challenged by thehigher amounts of run-off. Flooding wasa major problem.

However, a major factor contributing tothe extent, duration and damageresulting from flooding was the naturaltopography of the region. Along theexisting coast line are dunes, built ofsand deposited by storms. Behind thedunes lie Mangrove swamps, coastalwetlands important to the marineecological system that extends to theoffshore reefs.

"The importance of mangrove swampshas been well established. They functionas nurseries for shrimp and recreational

fisheries, exporters of organic matter toadjacent coastal food chains, andenormous sources of valuable nutrients.Their physical stability helps to preventshoreline erosion, shielding inland areasfrom severe damage during hurricanesand tidal waves."

While providing a buffer from surge,mangrove swamps also absorb runoffand shallow percolation from themainland, and act as short actingretention ponds, as the outlets from themangrove swamps is overwhelmed bythe flood water.

But there are historic dunes andmangrove swamps, now fossilized,

which also affect the regions responseto flooding. Map 1, a new map producedas part of the UTF based on originalresearch, displays a series of three setsof dunes is located along the coast line.Farthest to the right is today's narrowdune band and next to it in light greenlies today's existing mangrove swamps.To the east of today's mangroveswamps are located two elevatedridgelines made of ancient dunes. Theseare shown in darker shades of yellow.Behind each of these ancient dunesystems are low-lying areas, thefossilized remains of ancient mangroveswamps. These areas are shown inshades of darker green. All the fossilstrandline and mangrove units wereformed during PleistoceneInterglaciations when the sea level wasequal to, or higher, than the modernlevel. The one nearest the highway(strandline and mangrove couplet)formed during the last interglacial whichwas centered at 125 thousand yearsago. The other couplets likely formed

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during earlier interglaciations butresearch has not determined the agefrom these units.

Flood water falling behind the fossildunes is collected and held in the lowerancient mangrove areas. To drain, floodwater must slowly percolate though thefossilized sand dunes, a process whichcan take several days or more.Therefore, the ancient mangrove areasact as a reservoir for flood waters.

Sea Level Rise -An important issue toconsider in this discussion of hurricanedamage is that the water level in theocean is rising. This is not a newphenomenon, the level of the ocean hasrisen approximately 120 meters in thelast 18,000 years, as water stored as icein glaciers slowly melted. However, afteran estimated 3000 years with littlechange in the oceans, a renewed rate ofrise has been observed since 1900. The planning Team secured informationand actual measurement data about sea

level change in the region from a varietyof sources, including US EPA , andpublished reports . However much of theactual data was collected over a periodof time which makes interpretationunreliable . As a result it was thoughtprudent to reply on global coastalaverage of 3.7 mm/yr obtained byHolgate and Woodworth 2004 (GRL 31,L07305) as the best estimate for thePeninsula. If this rate continues somesources project "a sea level rise of 0.09to 0.88 m for 1990 to 2100, with acentral value of 0.48 m" . Developmentsalong the beachfront coastal areas needto take sea level rise and its possiblecontribution to hurricane damage intoserious consideration.

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Planning Considerations to Mitigate Future Hurricane Damage

Wind - First, of all it is important to notethat the concrete block and reinforcedconcrete construction methodsuniversally employed in urban centerssuch as Cancun region are far lesssusceptible to wind damage thanstructures built with methods commonlyfound in the United States. Photos andbuildings examined by the UTF did notdisplay any evidence of major directwind-induced structural failures. Thereappeared to be a small number ofprogressive failures, where the roofsfailed and then some, or all, of thestructure failed. Such financial loss canbe avoided by including building coderequirements for improved tie-downs,especially at edges . Despite the lack ofstructural failures, it is a good idea torequire large buildings, especially thosein the urban environment, to undergowind tunnel testing both of the buildingand to include the building'sneighborhood environment and to insistthat structural engineers perform loadcalculations on the building envelope

and rood top equipment . In rural areas,however, it was reported that traditionalwood and thatched dwellings sustainedserious damage.

However, damage to the glass was amajor problem resulting from Wilma.Engineers have extensively studied thethis kind of damage and several studiesconfirm that small missiles, such asroofing gravel and other missiles havesufficient strength to shatter even thickhotel windows when propelled byhurricane force winds . While wind bornedebris may have been a major cause ofbroken glass in the downtown, itappears likely that glass damage tooceanfront structures might have beenthe result of wind-induced changes inpressure along the outer shell ofbuildings, perhaps as a result of gusting.If this is to be prevented methods toshield the glass on new and existingbuilding need to be developed andimplemented. The only reliableprotection is to cover windows with other

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materials, such as wood sheets. Othertypes of wind damage from Wilma needto be collected and the newer buildingcodes now in effect in Florida should bescrutinized for ideas to be incorporatedin the local building codes. It also isimportant, once specific mitigationtechniques have been established, tocommunicate these ideas to the localdesign professionals and builders.

Another way to reduce damage is toutilize decorate planting materials whichare less susceptible to wind damage, orto producing wind borne debris andprojectiles.

Waves - Surge can be modeled usingprograms such as SLOSH. Bathymetryalong the coastline, which wascompleted in the mid-1990's needs to beobtained from the Mexican Navy andmade available for surge simulations.Care should be taken to simulateseveral storms, varying in intensity anddirection. Since these computer

simulations have fairly large standarderrors in their predictions, the manyresulting areas prone to surge might beoverlaid into a sort of probability surface.Areas identified with higher surgedamage probabilities might be deemedless suitable for development. Existingbuildings in areas prone to surgedamage should be informed of thehazard, so the owners can implementmitigation efforts (such as theestablishment of energy reflectiveseawalls).

Beach transport can be mitigated inhighly developed areas, such as thehotel on the barrier island, through theconstructions of groins. However, theeffectiveness of groins to mitigate beachtransport during a hurricane is doubtful.There also is evidence that theconstruction of vertical seawallsexacerbates beach erosion . Beacherosion and sand transport duringhurricanes can only be mitigated byimplementation of set-back limits and

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Beach erosion Overwash

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restoration of natural dunes and theirassociated vegetation. Whenever that isnot possible, the construction of energy-dissipating types of sea walls can beused but set-back limits are stilladviable. More detailed engineeringstudies should be made of this issueand possible some consideration givento removing the existing verticalseawalls if possible, and definitelyprohibiting the construction of newvertical seawalls along the beach frontareas of the region.

It also is recommended that the pre-Wilma and Post-Wilma aerials collectedby IMPLAN during the course of theUTF be used to accurately assess anddocument beach transport as well asdocument areas where overwashoccurred. Such analysis can assist todocument areas more or less suitablefor development, especially along thecoast to the south of Cancun.

Flooding - Every effort must be made topreserve the existing natural outfalls forflood water from Mangrove swamps.Extensive construction in low-lyingareas, the former locations of ancientmangrove swamps, should be avoided,as these area capture flood waters andare slow to drain. Development parallelto the coast should be focused on thedune areas and to preserve futuredevelopment options the continuation ofquarrying of these areas needs to becarefully considered. Similarly, areasexcavated by the quarrying nowrepresent areas prone to surge-inducedflooding and any construction in theseareas should recognize this fact.

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CONCLUSION

It is likely that the scenario that bestmatches the future of Cancun resultsfrom a combination of the threescenarios presented in this report.

Therefore, many of the issues discussedon each scenario would have to beaddressed and planned. Since asuccessful urban planning strategy in acomplex urban fabric such as thisrequires a strong determination toimprove existing conditions by creatingstrong relations with the context througha clear sense of location, position andorientation.

This establishes a coherent urbanenvironment that not only unlocksprivate sector development possibilitiesbut most importantly redefines theregional center structure with thecreation of a coherent public place thatenhances the activity of its residents andusers.

The Ciudad Turismo Scenario isbelieved to be the most likely if thegovernment does not support a revisionof the current development approach.The Urban Task Force estimates thatCancun will recover from Wilma andfollow a continued moderate growthpattern with this scenario.

The Ciudad de Communidades wouldhave an improved growth pattern with amore distributed socio-economic base.And the Ciudad Central scenario wouldhave the highest potential by capturingregional and international commercecomplementary with an expandingtourism industry.

Population projections for 2030 basedon these scenarios range from1,500,000 to 2,000,000 but the densitywould vary considerably, with the "masstourism" model showing the highestdensity and the "ciudad decomunidades" model the lowest.

In the end, Implan's challenge will be tocreate a master plan for the municipalitythat considers the same factors formingthe basis for the UTF program: promoteeconomic opportunities, social equityand environmental quality.

Cancun and the Mexican Riviera is anextraordinary place that has the potentialto be one of the most memorabletourism experiences; a vital Caribbeantrade centre; and an environmentalheritage for the people of the Yucatan,Mexico and the world.

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International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP)

Mailing Address:P.O. Box 9832501 CZ The HagueThe Netherlands

Visiting Address:Papestraat 272514 AV The HagueThe Netherlands

Tel: +(31-70) 346-2654Fax: +(31-70) 361-7909Email: isocarp@isocarp.org