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Car of the Future

Personal Mobility Solutions by 2035

Tom De VleesschauwerAssociate Director

Consulting

Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE

Introduction

• The Day After Tomorrow

– Why?

– What?

• Product and Market Defined

• Drivers for Future Mobility Solutions

• Scenario Based Foresight

• What Could the Impact Be?

• Conclusions


Three Billion Vehicles by 2035! That is Only Three Major Vehicle Updates Away…

• If our current model of mobility is maintained, there will be three billion vehicles on the roads of the world by 2035

• Imagine what this world will be like, considering the mobility challenges we face today when there are only 800 million vehicles in-use globally

• Imagine what your business will be like?

Just Imagine!

1) Gott, Philip; Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable? International Automotive Mobility Forum, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland

…It is Only the Day After Tomorrow!


Gridlock!

Mobility

is out

of control


Why? Just Imagine the Day After Tomorrow!

• What will we drive if there are three billion motor vehicles on the roads of the world in 2035?

• If most of us live in cities by then (already over 50% of us do), will we use public transportation in the city and buy bigger cars (or SUVs!) for weekend journeys?

• Will we own cars or just borrow them from car-sharing fleets when we need one?

• Will regulators allow such a massive number of vehicles or will there be measures taken to reduce vehicle ownership and use?

• How will mobility solutions evolve and what are the implications for the car and the way it is marketed, sold, and even owned?


What? The Day After Tomorrow

• So what can we do to prepare ourselves for the day after tomorrow?

– Understand the product and its usage/function

– Understand the market

– Understand what drives the world around us

• Foresight versus forecast

– Scenario: a tool of foresight

• Not a guess of the exact future

• Future roots in today’s trends and weak signals

• An array of possible futures


What is an ‘Acceptable’ Vehicle Today/Tomorrow?

• Slowly, society has come to accept that ‘oversized’ vehicles are morally not acceptable

• So is the January 2008 launch of the TATA Nano an indication of the ‘acceptable’ future?

• Or do we face moral concerns regarding the launch of a very low-cost car onto a market of one billion people?

• Is there a single global solution?


Markets Defined by the Wealth-Motorization Curve

• Mature markets– Very wealthy– Established industry– Motorization rate leveling off

• Growth markets– Wealth is building– Growing local industry– Rate of motorization is

increasing rapidly as a function of wealth

• Emerging markets– Breaking the $5,000 per capita

threshold– Indigenous industry just

beginning to emerge– Motorization will

increase rapidly

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Vehicle Density vs. Income(for 2002 and 2007)

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

W. Europe & Japan


Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions

1. Economy/Per Capita Income

2. Population

3. Wealth Distribution

4. Oil Prices

5. World CO2 Regulations

6. Values

7. IT/Technology Use


Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions

• Market Dependant Mobility Solution Drivers

1. Energy

2. Attitudes (Resource Conservation)

3. Mobility Regulations

4. Lifestyle

5. Free-Time

6. LD Infrastructures

7. Local Infrastructures

8. Technology and Safety


What Could the Impact be?


Let’s Look Ahead to the Day After Tomorrow

2030

20102008

2025

2015

Disruptive

Business As

Expected

Cornutopia

Market TypeMobility Drivers

• Scenario Based Foresight


Scenario: Business as Expected

• Keywords: No Change, On and On…


Scenario: Business as Expected

• Economic growth follows oil prices with ups and downs until the world’s different regions have developed their own complementary alternative energy solutions

• All countries in the world agree to reduce greenhouse emissions, but only those without large fossil resources do engage themselves in a precise reduction target

• Environment and sustainable development is a major issue, but most people in emerging and growth markets still dream of a nice house and a beautiful car, just like in

the movies



• Business as expected

– Renault eco2 – Citroen Airdream

– London congestion charging

– Continuation of the same, with little breakthrough

• Evolutionary (carry-over)

• Some intelligence


Scenario: Cornutopia

• Keywords: Responsibility (People and Corporate)


Scenario: Cornutopia

• Surging oil prices have boosted the world’s understanding that this planet has limited resources and that we must all find a more sustainable model of development to allow mankind to live in a decent way

• Social networking due to fast developing IT/technology and world media increases awareness, first in mature markets, then emerging and growth markets, about sustainable development

• Responsibility to save the planet’s resources and to maintain social peace by a more even distribution of revenues. This applies to individuals as well as corporations

• Sustained wealth growth with a decreasing energy intensity per capita speeds up urbanization and demographic transition



• Cornutopia

– Venturi / Think

– Car sharing / club

• Velib/Auto

– Advanced evolution for the greater good

• Technology

• Alternatives


Scenario: Disruptive

• Keywords: Security Control


Scenario: Disruptive

• The world is exposed to a recession, more political tension, and risk of war. This forces a political answer to control mobility by mandatory means

• Forced optimisation of daily tasks/habits allow people and corporations to save resources

• Necessity to mitigate mobility



• Disruptive

– Better place

– Pay as you drive

– Forced revolution

• Accident free

• Mobility solution ≠ Car

• Intelligent, integrated


Conclusions

• Is mobility as we know it sustainable?

– Clearly, the answer to this is “no”

• Instead, the global model of mobility will need to change to embrace all possible solutions and more

– A holistic approach must adopt political, market, regulatory, and fiscal measures to develop our current model towards one that minimizes the fundamental energy intensity of personal and goods transport


Conclusions

• What we must do is view the current regulatory standards for the next decade as the first steps, not the final objective!

– These are the foundation upon which we can build a new era of mobility

• The challenge before us is to recognize on a global scale that these are the necessary choices and to act soon enough

– We need to ensure that the transition to this holistic approach is managed as an opportunity rather than reacted to as a crisis


Conclusions

• Out of our three scenarios, at first it appears that disruptive is the ‘bad’ one, but is it?

• Business As Expected

• Cornutopia

• Disruptive

• These are just scenarios—the truth lies somewhere in the middle—but one thing will be true:

– Cars might be perceived as a problem now but let’s treat cars like a possible solution…


Finally…

• Have we lost our ability to ‘dream’?

• We need more visionaries!

– The predictions of Jules Verne prove to have been astutely correct

• The man who invented the future?

– One European OEM has a ‘DREAM’ department

– Project Better Place (Mr. Shai Agassi)

Thank You!

Tom De VleesschauwerAssociate Director

[email protected]

Presentations are available for download at:www.globalinsight.com/events/GAC2008Paris

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