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Global Climate Change: Global Climate Change: What the Future Holds and What What the Future Holds and What
We Can Do About It:We Can Do About It:
Carbon Capture and Carbon Capture and SequestrationSequestration
Life‐Long Learning AcademyWMU, Fall 2011
Dave Barnes, [email protected]
Nov 10, 2011
1
Secretary Chu Announces $2.4 billion in Funding for Carbon Capture and Storage Projects, May 2009
• Overwhelming scientific evidence demonstrates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have already caused the climate to change. The world is on a perilous course that poses clear threats to the well‐being and economic prosperity of our people.
• We also know that prosperity depends on reliable, affordable access to energy. Coal accounts for 25 percent of the world's energy supply and 40percent of carbon emissions, and is likely to be a major and growing source of electricity generation for the foreseeable future.
• For this reason, I believe we must make it our goal to advance carbon capture and storage technology to the point where widespread, affordable deployment can begin in 8 to 10 years.
Nobel Laureate (Physics)and Secretary of EnergyDr. Steven Chu
2
Carbon Capture and Storage, CCSCarbon Capture and Storage, CCS
• CCS is various methods for capturing and permanently storing anthropogenic CO2* that would otherwise contribute to global climate change.
*Carbon extracted from the inactive carbon reservoir of the Geosphere and introduced into the active carbon reservoirs of Soils, the Atmosphere, Biosphere and Hydrosphere
Carbon Cycle, Active (surface) and Inactive (geological) reservoirs
3
SinkAmount in Billions of Metric
Tons
Atmosphere 578 (as of 1700) ‐ 766 (as of 1999)
Soil Organic Matter 1500 to 1600
Ocean 38,000 to 40,000
Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks
66,000,000 to 100,000,000
Terrestrial Plants 540 to 610
Fossil Fuel Deposits 4000
Carbon Capture and Storage, CCSCarbon Capture and Storage, CCS
• CCS is various methods for capturing and permanently storing anthropogenic CO2* that would otherwise contribute to global climate change.
*Carbon extracted from the inactive carbon reservoir of the Geosphere and introduced into the active carbon reservoirs of Soils, the Atmosphere, Biosphere and Hydrosphere
Carbon Cycle, Active (surface) and Inactive (geological) reservoirs
4
Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget
5
Billions of tons of carbon
“Doubled” CO2
Today
Pre‐Industrial
Glacial
800
1200
600
400
billions of tons carbon
ATMOSPHERE
( ppm )
(570)
(380)
(285)
(190)
2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil Fuel Burning
+
8
800billion tons carbon
4billion tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added every year
S. Pacala and R. Socolow,
6
StabilizationWedges
• Addressing GHG emissions/ climate change for the next 50 years* with current technologies
• Reducing GHG emissions to ensure atmospheric CO2
concentration < 500ppm!
S. Pacala and R. Socolow*
*Unfortunately, some believe that the *Unfortunately, some believe that the emissions growth estimate in the P&S BAU emissions growth estimate in the P&S BAU curve is far too low (developing countries curve is far too low (developing countries energy utilization) energy utilization)
!!Also some believe that, at an atmospheric Also some believe that, at an atmospheric COCO22 concentration in excess of 380ppm, we concentration in excess of 380ppm, we are already at a climate change tipping are already at a climate change tipping pointpoint…….. (climate sensitivity concerns).. (climate sensitivity concerns) 7
• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
8
Geosequestration
• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
9
Geosequestration
From: CO2CRC
10
Geological Sequestration (GS)• Geological media suitable for storage of CO2 in Michigan
– depleted oil reservoirs (+/- CO2/EOR) and– deep, saline (brine-filled) reservoir formations
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CO2CRC
The New Energy‐Technology Challenge
• 8 Energy Technology Categories and the pathway to GHG Emissions Mitigation
International Energy Agency, 2008
transportation
IEA11
DOE‐NETL Carbon Sequestration Research
12
DOE‐NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration
Partnership Program:
Midwest Region Carbon Sequestration Partnership
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DOE‐NETL RCSP Carbon Sequestration Atlas
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• Variation in the Earth's global climate, or in regional climates, over time
• In recent usage the term "climate change" refers to the ongoing changes in modern climate,
• This includes the rise in average surface temperature known as
Global Warming with a presumption of human
causation
15
Climate Change
20th Century Global Temperature & Atmospheric CO2 Change
US Energy Flow, 2008(Quadrillion BTU; QUADS)Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2008
US Energy Flow, 2008(Quadrillion BTU; QUADS)Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2008
CO2 Emissions Flow, 2008Energy Information Administration Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report 2008
US CO2 Emissions by Sector:Impact of Coal for Electric Power
GDP vs Electric Power (2004)
Frank van Mierlo; 2006 Key World Energy Statistics from the International Energy Agency
Rapidly transforming U.S. Fossil Fuel Intensive energy infrastructure to a low/no GHG
emissions infrastructure on the time frame necessary to address climate change
Is a Formidable Challenge
22
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgCGrowth rate: -1.3%1990 level: +37%
2000-2008Growth rate: +3.2%
2010 (projected):Growth rate: >3%
CO
2em
issi
ons
(Pg
C y
-1) C
O2 em
issions (Pg CO
2 y-1)
Growth rate1990-1999
1 % per year
Growth rate2000-2009
2.5 % per year
Time (y)
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Car
bon
Emis
sion
s pe
r yea
r(C
tons
x 1
,000
,000
)
China
USA
Japan
Russian Fed.India
07
2009
Time (y)
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Time (y)
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)
Developed Nation
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
1990 2000 2010
5
4
3
2CO
2em
issi
ons
(PgC
y-1) 57%
43%
86% of world Population20% of historic emissions
20% of world Population80% of historic emissions
CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
CO
2em
issi
ons
(PgC
y-1)
Oil
Coal
Gas
Cement
4
3
2
1
01990 2000 2010
40%
36%
Time (y)
Current Global Energy Use
Can we REALLY wean ourselves from Fossil Fuels and GHG emissions in Time??
85% Fossil Energy
Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gasesBy Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, Nov 4, 2011
WASHINGTON – The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global warming.Output of carbon into the atmosphere increased 6% from 2009 to 2010.
o The world pumped about 564 million more tons (512 million metric tons) of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009. That's an increase of 6%.
o The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.
o "The more we talk about the need to control emissions, the more they are growing," said John Reilly, co‐director of MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
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• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
29
Geosequestration
From: CO2CRC
• Non‐interference with USDT’sunderground sources of drinking water <10,000 ppm TDS
• Storage Capacity– Storage volume compared to anthropogenic CO2 sources
i.e. 600 Mw power plant {Port Sheldon} = ~5 million tons of CO2/year, for 50 years = 250 million tons for the 50 year life of a big power station
– Pore volume, storage efficiency, temperature/pressure (>2,600 ft, MD)
• Injectivity/Storage Potential– Permeability, porosity, and thickness
• Containment/Security– Seal and trap suitable for CO2; No vertical nor lateral (upwards) migration
• Site Details– Site technical and economic viability – Distance from source, depth to reservoir
• Non‐interference with Existing Natural Resources: oil gas, coal, etc
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Key Factors for GeosequestrationAssessment
MRCSP Regional Geological Setting:Mid‐West Basins and Arches
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Modified from :Howell and Van der Plujim
Michigan Basin Structure
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St. Peter Sst (M. Ordovician)
Trenton Fm (U. Ordovician)
Brown Niagaran(U.- M. Silurian)
Dundee Fm(M. Devonian)
0-4500’
600-9000’
1000-10500’
BedrockSubcropShallow
Deep
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Michigan’s Deep Saline Geological Sequestration Zones
As much as 16,000ft of bedrock sedimentary strata (below glacial drift)
Deep Sandstone Injection and Confinement Zones
34
Mount Simon Sst in Michigan
• Depth in the Subsurface (Overburden Thickness)
– ~3,200 ‐ >15,500 ft
• Thickness (Isopach)
– 0 ‐ >1,500 ft
• Viable Saline Aquifer– <~6,500‐7,500 ft
35
Kelley, 2010
Mount Simon Sst in Michigan• Storage Capacity Estimates:
–43 – 3.8 Gmt statewide (depending on assumptions
–as much as 4 Gmt in some counties (depending on assumptions)
36Kelley, 2010
*Michigan stationary CO2 emissions in 2009 = ~90 mil. tons of CO2
Mount Simon sequestration zone could accommodate stationary emissions in MI for as much as 400 years!
37
St. Peter Sst in Michigan
Depth in the Subsurface (Overburden Thickness)
2,600 ‐ >13,000 ft
Thickness (Isopach)
0 ‐ >1,100 ft
Viable Saline AquiferMost prospective on the basin margins
St. Peter Sst in Michigan
38
• Storage Capacity Estimates:
–1.5 – 6 Gmt statewide; (depending on assumptions)
–>263 Mmt in some counties
Intermediate Carbonate Reef Injection and Confinement Zones
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern and Southern Lower Michigan
40
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Southern Lower Michigan
41
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Southern Lower Michigan
42
Top Niagaran Structure (ss)
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields
43
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern Lower Michigan
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern Lower Michigan
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend Oil Fields In Northern Lower Michigan
• A giant hydrocarbon resource in closely‐spaced, but highly compartmentalized oil and gas fields
• Most fields have either reached or are nearing their economic limit in primary production mode
• Over 400 MMBO and 2.4 TCF of natural gas produced
46
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend Oil Fields In Northern Lower Michigan
• Incremental CO2/EOR for the NPRT is estimated at almost 160 MMBO using CO2/EOR recovery efficiency of 40% relative to primary production.
• Two different estimation methodologies indicate greater than 330 Mmt but less than 810 Mmt of GCS capacity is available in the NPRT.
47
Shallow Carbonate and Sandstone Injection and Confinement Zones
48
Silurian Bass Islands Dolomite
49
Middle Devonian Sylvania Sandstone
50
Sylvania Sandstone All Reservoir typesStorage Capacity in Michigan2.9 billion metric tonnes(@ 4% storage efficiency)
Sylvania Sandstone Conventional ReservoirsStorage Capacity in Michigan1.9 billion metric tonnes(@ 4% storage efficiency)
CO2 Emissions Sources and Sinks
51Kelley, 2010
St. Peter Sst
CO2 stationary emission sources in MI (~85 Mmt/year)
St. Peter Sst
Sources and sinks
52
Sylvania Sst
CO2 stationary emission sources in MI
Northern Reef TrendOil Fields
Non‐technical Challenges to Implementation of Carbon Capture and Geological Storagefor Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction
• Public understanding and acceptance
• Clear legal and regulatory framework to stimulate investor confidence
• Sufficient financial penalty for GHG emissions (exceeding cost of CC&GS; currently ~115‐130% of current power generation costs) through regulation– Regional, National, and International Cap and Trade Programs/Carbon Tax
Game Changers in the Last Couple Years
—It’s Politics and the Economy, STUPID, including— The Iron Law of Climate Policy
Roger Pielke Jr. (2009, The Climate Fix)— “when environmental and economic objectives are placed into opposition with one
another in public or political forums, the economic goals win out every time”— “people are often willing to pay some price for achieving environmental objectives, but
that willingness has its limits”
—Major shifts in conventional (fossil energy) supply—The Shale/Unconventional gas revolution;
transformation of the energy market place
—Recent EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) Regulations for Class VI UIC (underground injection control {waste disposal}) CO2 injection well s—Strong Negative Impact on demonstration projects
54
The Economy and Politics
55
U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays
56
U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays
57
Technology Responsible for theShale Gas Revolution
58
Horizontal drilling and hydro‐fracturing technology
Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
59
Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
60
Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
61
Some Last Thoughts (Think Globally act Locally)
• Michigan has tremendous Geological Sequestration (as well as CO2/EOR) and biomass production potential– Hundreds of years of sequestration capacity in many different areas in many different
storage zones– Large agricultural and forestry resources (much fallow land for energy crops)
• Consider:– Local (township/county?) deployment of high efficiency NGCC (natural gas
combined cycle: elec. & steam) turbines (compare to WMU power plant ~10 Mw)– Gradual Incorporate of biofuels (methane) into fuel mix at NGCC facilities– Use carbon capture technology (i.e. NG processing plants ) at NG electric
power plants and – Use nationally significant geological sequestration opportunities in MI
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• Validate negative emissions potential • Contribute to sustainable electric power production • Address rising CO2 emissions during energy tech transition period
Acknowledgment to:
Congressman Fred Upton and his Staff for support of our
work through Congressional Earmark Funding