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Climate Change: Global, Regional, and Local Effects on Ecosystem and Human Health

Dr. David KaroweDepartment of Biological Sciences

Western Michigan University

10 warmest years in history: 2002-2007, 2009-2011, 1998*

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Since 1900, Earth has warmed by ~ 0.8o C

- warmest year: 2010- rate of warming is 10-100 times faster

than in at least the last 800,000 years- likely faster than in 55 million yr

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Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

Earth’s climate has always been changing

~ 100,000 year climate cycles, due to cyclic changes in amount of incoming solar radiation

Over the past 800,000 years:

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Can current climate change be due to “natural variation”?

For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been decreasing

Since 1900, natural factors would have caused a slight cooling of Earth

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Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming is due to human activities

Fossil fuel use (~80%) Deforestation (~20%)

Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming?

“Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities."

Scientific organizations endorsing this statement:

United States:National Academy of SciencesAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Medical AssociationAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Physics

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Geological Society of AmericaAmerican Academy of PaediatricsAmerican College of Preventive MedicineAmerican Public Health AssociationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric ResearchUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchEcological Society of AmericaAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersBotanical Society of AmericaCrop Science Society of AmericaNatural Science Collections Alliance

American Statistical AssociationOrganization of Biological Field StationsAmerican Physical SocietySociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaFederation of American ScientistsNational Research CouncilNational Association of Geoscience TeachersAmerican Quaternary AssociationAmerican Association of Wildlife VeterinariansAmerican Society for MicrobiologySociety of American ForestersAmerican Astronomical Society

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Europe:European Academy of Sciences and ArtsEuropean Science FoundationEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Physical SocietyEuropean Federation of GeologistsRoyal Society of the United KingdomAcademie des Sciences (France)Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)Royal Irish AcademyRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRoyal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the ArtsRoyal Meteorological SocietyBritish Antarctic SurveyUnited Kingdom Institute of Biology

Other countries (≥ 35):Chinese Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanRussian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science AcademyRoyal Society of New ZealandAustralian Academy of SciencesAustralian Medical AssociationPolish Academy of SciencesAcademia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)Royal Society of CanadaAfrican Academy of SciencesCaribbean Academy of SciencesAcademy of Sciences of MalaysiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesAcademy of Science of South Africa

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Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:

American Institute of Petroleum Geologists (but not since 2007)

Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific evidence?

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Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific consensus?

85% of U.S. energy comes from fossil fuels

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U.S. emits the most carbon per person

Midwest would be 4th highest emitting country

In just the last 150 years, atmospheric CO2

increased from 280 to >390 parts per million (ppm)

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Arctic summer sea ice is disappearing

Worldwide, what’s already happening?

Glaciers are melting worldwide

1978 2000

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Greenland is melting and Antarctica is shattering

Permafrost is melting and destabilizing

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Severe rainstorms have become more common

- 50% increase in southwest Michigan since 1948

Flooding has increased worldwide

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2011 was Michigan’s 3rd wettest spring on record

As a result, Michigan experienced flooding this spring

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And there was extensive flooding along Mississippi

1950-1959

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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Droughts have also increased worldwide

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2000-2009

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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Much of the U.S. had an unusually warm summer

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In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought

South central states experienced “Exceptional Drought”

September 27, 2011

September 27, 2011

Right now, 61% of U.S. is in drought

April 10, 2012

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This year, 23 states had their warmest March on record

What will the future bring?

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Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4o C by 2100

2o

4o

Climate change is very likely to accelerate

“Business as usual”

Alternate energy sources

On average, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for ~100 years

Global warming is likely to persist for >1,000 years after we stop emitting greenhouse gasses

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Will a 4-5o temperature rise matter?When Earth was 5o cooler:

Severe rainstorms will continue to increase

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In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far

In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far

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1950-19592000-2009

2060-2069

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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How are plants and animals likely to be affected by future climate change?

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By 2100, many species are predicted to experience “disappearing climates”

Low Moderate High

Probability of a “Disappearing Climate”

African mammals are likely to be adversely affected

Of 227 species, 20-40% are predicted to be extinct by 2080 due to climate change

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Most Western Hemisphere amphibian species are predicted to be adversely affected by climate change

37% of 413 species are predicted to decrease

by >90%

area of greatest

vulnerability

Birds in high northern latitudes are particularly vulnerable to climate change

27 species lose, on average, 80% of suitable

habitat by 2080

White-wingedCrossbill

Eurasian Dotterel

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Possible loss of all coral reefs with 3o rise and >650 ppm CO2

2100

Overall, tree species richness is predicted to decline substantially throughout the U.S. by 2100

Current

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2100

In Michigan, sugar maple is predicted to decline by >80% by 2100 under “Business as Usual”

Current

In Michigan, 8 of the 15 most abundant tree species are predicted to decline by at least 50%

sugar maple

northern white cedarbig tooth and trembling aspen

balsam fir paper birch

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white-throatedsparrow

common loon blackburnianwarbler

yellow-belliedsapsucker

juncored-breastednuthatch

evening grosbeak

magnolia warbler

36 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by 75-100%

additional species predicted to decline by 75-100%:

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15 new species are predicted to occur in Michigan

northern bobwhite

yellow-billed cuckoo

little blue heron

cattle egret

painted bunting

scissor-tailed flycatcher

summer tanager

Mississippi kite

Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C, 20-50% of species may be committed to extinction

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1. Increased heat stress and decreased cold stress

2. Increased disease (e.g. malaria, dengue)

3. Reduced air quality (e.g. higher ozone)

4. Increased malnutrition

5. Increased conflict

How is climate change likely to affect human health?

1900 2100Year

By 2100 in Europe, every other summer could be like 2003, when a heat wave killed up to 80,000 people

2003

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Michigan will experience many more days over 90o F

For many Midwestern cities, dramatic increases predicted in the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves

Number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade

- responsible for ~ 700 deaths

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e.g. malaria

Climate change is likely to cause an increase in several vector-borne diseases

Anopheles

1,000,000 deaths annually

+2o C +10% summer rain- 10% winter rain

Most studies predict increase in malaria, but change depends on climate scenario

+4o C +20% summer rain- 20% winter rain

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Fossil fuel induced increases in tropospheric ozone is predicted to cause ~2 million deaths by 2050

- health costs estimated at $580 billion per year

Annual deaths due to O3 above pre-industrial level

In the U.S., corn and soybean yields are predicted to decrease dramatically

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By 2030, most of the important crops in India and Pakistan are predicted to have reduced yields

- 30% of world’s malnourished people

Climate change is predicted to increase civil wars in six African regions by 5-10% by 2030

- overall increasein sub-SaharanAfrica of about about 50%

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Developed countries are causing the problem, but developing countries experience most health costs

Countries proportional to CO2 emissions (1950-2000)

Countries proportional to climate-sensitive health effects

What can I do to minimize climate change?

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1. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car

20 mpg 30 mpg

50 mpg34 mpg

- would reduce CO2 emissions by 56 million tons per year

2. Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately insulate attic, and replace single-pane windowswith triple-pane windows

- would reduce CO2 emissions by 25 million tons per year

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3. Next time, buy energy star appliances

- would reduce CO2 emissions by 15 million tons per year

4. HVAC equipment: when necessary, replace older furnace and AC unit with Energy Star model

- would reduce CO2 emissions by 12 million tons per year

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5. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs

- one per household = taking 6 million cars off the road

- can save 7 tons of CO2 per year for a family of four

6. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer)

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7. Buy green electricity

- one GreenBlock = driving 3,300 fewer miles per year ($1.50/month)

Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution

- really just delays the inevitable

50 mpg

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Emissions reductions need to be rapid and large

- 80% reduction by 2050 to avoid worst scenarios

Urgent need for alternate energy sources

Solar Wind

The TRUE COSTS of wind and solar are already lower than coal-generated electricity

True cost per kilowatt hour of power

Coal: 26¢

Offshore wind: 3¢Onshore wind: 6¢Solar troughs: 11¢Solar towers: 20¢

Solar PV: 40¢

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Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S. electricity demand using only onshore turbines

- Michigan can supply 12 times our current use

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising

Parabolic troughCentral tower

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A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of U.S. electricity needs today

- excess energy captured during the day could be stored as heat and used to produce electricity at night

A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world’s electricity

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Who has the largest impact on Earth’s future?

8. Contact your representatives!

Fred Upton is “…one of the biggest threats to planet Earth on planet Earth.” LA Times, December 2011

9. Vote

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10. Educate others

Worst case scenario: