CAREER PEAKS

IN THE NETHERLANDS

FOR LABOUR MARKET ENTRY COHORTS FROM THE

1950s 1960s, 1970sTesting Goldthorpe’s assumption of occupational maturity around age 35

MAARTEN WOLBERSRADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN

RUUD LUIJKX TILBURG UNIVERSITY

WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN

RC 28

YALE UNIVERSITY

NEW HAVEN

AUGUST 3-6, 2009

FOUR RC28 GENERATIONS (GANZEBOOM, TREIMAN & ULTEE 1989)

FIRST LIPSET TWO-MOMENT DATA PERCENTAGES

SECOND DUNCAN THREE-MOMENT DATA PATH MODELS

THIRD HAUSER- FOUR-MOMENT DATA GOLDTHORPE LOG-LINEAR MODELS

FOURTH MAYER- FULL JOB HISTORIES BLOSSFELD EVENT MODELS

THIS PAPER IS A FOURTH GENERATION PAPER

THE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GENERATIONS :

LATER GENERATIONS SAY OF EARLIER ONES

THAT THEIR QUESTIONS

POSE THE ISSUE POORLY (DUNCAN) ,

ARE NOT DETAILED ENOUGH (HAUSER) ,

NOT SPECIFIED PROPERLY (BLOSSFELD)

THE FOURTH GENERATION UNTIL NOW BYPASSED THE QUESTION OF CAREER PEAKS

PRIME DUTCH FOURTH GENERATION STUDY

PAUL DE GRAAF 1992

RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR 427 MEN COLLECTED IN 1982

AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS FOR THREE COHORTS AFTER THE NUMBER OF YEARS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY

STATUS RISES DURING A LIFETIME AND IS HIGHER FOR LATER COHORTS

UNDERUSE OF JOB HISTORY DATA

FIGURES LIKE THIS BYPASS THE IDEA THAT AN

INDIVIDUAL’S CAREER PEAKS

YETTHE QUESTION OF THEAGE AT WHICH AN

INDIVIDUAL’S CAREER PEAKS HAS SOME PERTINENCE

ACCORDING TO GOLDTHORPE (1981: 51-52) THE CAREERS OF MOST INDIVIDUALS HAVE

MATURED AROUND AGE 35

THE OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY ASSUMPTION ALLOWS FOR ANSWERING

QUESTIONS ABOUT TRENDS WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY ONLY

THE QUESTION :HAS THE AGE AT WHICH A PERSON’S CAREER PEAKS

SHIFTED UP OR DOWN WITH EACH NEW LABOUR MARKET

ENTRY COHORT ?

IS A SECOND GENERATION

QUESTION

IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY THE FOURTH GENERATION

QUESTION :

AFTER OVERVIEWING A PERSON’S JOB HISTORY AND DETERMINING THIS PERSON’S PEAK,

ARE THE ODDS FOR THIS PERSON TO HAVE MOVED IN A CERTAIN PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK

TO PEAK

HIGHER , THE SAME , OR LOWER IF THIS PERSON BELONGS TO A LATER LABOUR MARKET ENTRY

COHORT ?

THE GOLDTHORPE HYPOTHESIS :

THE EFFECTS OF FACTORS LIKE

FATHER’S OCCUPATIONAL STATUS ,

EDUCATION ,

STATUS FIRST OCCUPATION

AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

ON THE AGE AT WHICH MEN REACH THEIR PEAK

HAVE MORE OR LESS RUN OUT BEFORE AGE 35

THIS PAPER’S ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS :

THE EFFECTS OF THE FACTORS

AGE (MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET)

EDUCATION

AND NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

ON MOVING DURING SOME FIXED PERIOD FROM NON-PEAK TO PEAK

IMPLY HIGHER ODDS OF PEAKING AFTER AGE 35

MORE IF THIS PAPER’S HYPOTHESES :

PERSONS DURING A FIXED PERIOD ARE MORE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THEIR PEAK

IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THAT PERIOD WAS LOWER

IF THAT PERSON IS OLDER (HAS BEEN LONGER ON THE LABOUR MARKET)

IF THAT PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION

IF THAT PERSON’S FATHER HAD A HIGHER STATUS

IF THAT PERSON’S FIRST JOB HAD A HIGHER STATUS

THIS PAPER’S DATASERIES OF FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION

WITH NEW SAMPLES FOR

1993

1998

2000

2003

TO BE ADDED 2009

PLUS HIN 2005

RETROSPECTIVE JOB HISTORIES FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 18-70

HERE SELECTED :

ALL MEN AT LEAST AGED 45 AT TIME OF INTERVIEW

WOMEN DESERVE SEPARATE TREATMENT

IT WOULD BE UNWISE AND UNNECESSARY TO SELECT ONLY

MEN WHO HAVE DEFINITIVELY RETIRED FROM THE LABOUR

MARKET

20

30

40

50

60

70

Occ

upat

iona

l Sta

tus

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480

LM Entry cohort 1950s LM Entry cohort 1960s

LM Entry cohort 1970s

THE CLASSICAL GRAPH FOR THE PRESENT DUTCH DATA SET :

FOR LATER COHORTS,

AVERAGE ENTRY OCCUPATIONAL STATUS , MEASURED AS ISEI RANGING FROM 10 TO 90 , RISES

BUT PEAKS EARLIER WITH INCREASING NUMBER OF MONTHS ON THE LABOUR MARKET

ANOTHER CLASSICAL GRAPH

20

30

40

50

60

70

Occ

upat

iona

l Sta

tus

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480

Primary and Lower Secondary Higher Secondary

Tertiary

AVERAGE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS

INCREASES MOST FOR MEN WITH SECONDARY EDUCATION,

AND LEAST FOR MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION

DETERMINE FOR EACH MAN HIS CAREER PEAK

NOW MAKE A MEN-MONTHS FILE

DETERMINE WHETHER A MAN AT THE BEGINNING OF A MONTH IS AT THE PEAK OF HIS CAREER

IF YES, DELETE THESE CASES

IF NO, DETERMINE WHETHER THIS MAN AT THE END OF A MONTH IS AT HIS PEAK

TAKE AGE OF THE MAN OR THE NUMBER OF MONTHS SINCE LABOUR MARKET ENTRY AS A

TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE

MEAN PEAK AGE FOR EACH COHORT :

1950s COHORT 34.8

1960s COHORT 34.0

1970s COHORT 32.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Perc

enta

ge n

ot a

t max

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480

LM Entry cohort 1950s LM Entry cohort 1960s

LM Entry cohort 1970s

PERTINENT GRAPH

50% OF THE 1950s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 90 MONTHS

50% OF THE 1960s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 60 MONTHS

50% OF THE 1970s COHORT MEN IS AT THEIR PEAK WITHIN 30 MONTHS

OF THE MEN IN THE 1970s COHORT,

AFTER 300 MONTHS

ABOUT 40% PERCENT IS NOT AT THEIR PEAK

THIS MEANS THAT QUESTIONS ON MAKING THE PEAK

SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTED WITH QUESTIONS

ON SLIDING FROM THE PEAK

GOLDTHORPE’S MATURATION NOTION :

MATURATION NOT ONLY AS STAYING AT A PEAK

BUT ALSO AS BELOW EARLY PEAK STABILIZATION ?

MEAK PEAK AGE FOR SIX LEVELS OF EDUCATION :

PRIMARY 34.5

LOWER SECUNDARY 33.9

INTERMEDIATE SECUNDARY 33.8

HIGHER SECUNDARY 32.6

LOWER TERTIARY 34.7

HIGHER TERTIARY 34.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Perc

enta

ge n

ot a

t max

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480

Primary and Lower Secondary Higher Secondary

Tertiary

ANOTHER PERTINENT GRAPH

OF MEN WITH PR + LS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS

OF MEN WITH IS + HS EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 50 MONTHS

OF MEN WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION, 50% AT PEAK WITHIN 100 MONTHS

SECOND GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LINEAR REGRESSION OF THE AGE AT WHICH A CAREER PEAKS ON VARIOUS FACTORS

N = 1163

SIGN COEF SE

CONST ** 34.423 1.545

FOCC ns -.016 .020

EDU2 ns -.326 1.105

EDU3 ns -.361 1.157

EDU4 ns -.915 1.731

EDU5 ns .952 1.231

EDU6 ns 1.388 1.473

FISTOCC ns .018 .023

COHORT2 ns -.749 .672

COHORT3 ** -2.340 .991

ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER

THAT ONE IS FOR COHORT3

IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB IS DROPPED

AND IF THE STATUS OF THE FIRST JOB AND THE DUMMIES

FOR EDUCATION ARE DROPPED

STILL ONLY COHORT3 IS SIGNIFICANT

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE

N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL

SIGN COEF SE

CONS ** -6.823 .336

FOCC ns .001 .002

EDU2 ns .046 .109

EDU3 ns .110 .114

EDU4 ns .202 .174

EDU5 ns .138 .124

EDU6 ns .170 .149

FISTOCC ns .000 .002

AGE ** .035 .018

AGE SQUARED ns .000 .000

COHORT2 ** .149 .067

COHORT3 ** .488 .088

SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR THE TWO

COHORTS

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING AGE

N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL

SIGN COEF SE

CONS ** -7.174 .352

FOCC ns .002 .002

EDU2 ns .067 .109

EDU3 ns .146 .114

EDU4 ns .253 .173

EDU5 ns .100 .123

EDU6 * .277 .147

FISTOCC ns - .003 .002

AGE ** .064 .019

AGE SQUARED ns -.000 .000

UNEMPRATE ** -.027 .012

NEXT TO SIGNIFICANT

PARAMETERS FOR AGE AND FOR

HIGHEST EDUCATION

SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER FOR TIME-DEPENDENT

NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING

ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING THE LABOUR MARKET

N = 208,546 , ONE-LEVEL MODEL

SIGN COEF SE

CONS ** -6.097 .164

FOCC ns .003 .002

EDU2 ns .106 .110

EDU3 ** .224 .115

EDU4 ** .437 .174

EDU5 ** .306 .123

EDU6 ** .669 .148

FISTOCC ns .001 .002

MONTHS ns .001 .000

M SQUARED ** 6.24e-06 1.79e-06

UNEMPRATE ns -.003 .011

MORE EDUCATION

PARAMETERS ARE SIGNIFICANT

BUT THE UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE NOW IS INSIGNIFICANT

EFFECTS HAVE THE PREDICTED

SIGN

FOURTH GENERATION MODEL FOR THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF REMAINING BELOW PEAK AGAINST PEAKING ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING MONTHS SINCE ENTERING

THE LABOUR MARKET N = 208,546 , TWO-LEVEL MODEL

SIGN COEF SE

CONS ** -7.136 .409

FOCC ** .007 .003

EDU2 ns .109 .186

EDU3 ** .413 .201

EDU4 ** .882 .318

EDU5 ** .599 .221

EDU6 ** 1.259 .289

FISTOCC ns .002 .003

MONTHS ** .008 .002

M SQUARED ns 4.68e-06 2.76e-06

UNEMPRATE ** -.040 .016

AFTER CORRECTION FOR

GROUPING OF MONTHS WITHIN

PERSONS (WITH STATA),

YET MORE SIGNIFICANT

PARAMETERS

INCLUDING FATHER’S

OCCUPATIONAL STATUS AND

NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE

RUNNING MODELS HAS NOT PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH

TO SIMULATE THEM FOR

THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN VARIOUS CONDITIONS

ON THE PERCENT OF PERSONS WHO PEAK

BEFORE AGE 35

INTERACTION TERMS SHOULD BE INCLUDED

FIRST

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