carly and erin additions (1) final draft

The Evolution of Technology

Where Will Technology Be in 2023?

• Communications Students do not need a Swami!

The Umbrella Perspective on Communication Technology


• Stems from the work of Everett M. Rogers (1931-2004) and Sandra J. Ball –Rokeach (b. 1941). (August E. Grant, Jennifer H. Meadows, Communication Technology Update, p. 2)


• Understands Communication Technology on Five Levels:

• Hardware: the technology itself

• Software: the content of the technology

• Organizational Infrastructure: those involved in the production/distribution of the technology

• Social System - the political, economic and media systems environment etc.

• Individual Users - Users of technology, both actual and potential

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations


• “Diffusion is the process in which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.” – Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations: 5th Edition, p. 5


• Elements:• Innovation• Communication• Time• Social system


• Process:• Knowledge• Persuasion• Decision• Implementation• Confirmation

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate

• In his book Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey A. Moore (b. 1946) built upon Rogers’ work and published a theory of innovation of adoption rate.

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate• Moore posits that innovations are adopted

gradually in phases.• These consumers are characterized as:• Innovators• Early adapters • Early majority• Late majority• Laggards

Moore’s Innovation Adoption Rate

• “We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations fall” (Moore, Crossing the Chasm, p. 11)

Critical Mass Theory

• Critical Mass Theory is another topic addressed thoroughly in Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations.

Critical Mass Theory

• Critical mass is the sufficient number of adopters of a particular innovation in a social system to make the rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining and create further growth.

Uses and Gratifications Theory

• Uses and gratifications theory is an audience-centered approach to understanding why and how people actively seek out specific media to satisfy specific needs. It is unique in it focus on how people use media.


• Uses and Gratifications Theory has been developed over time. In 1944, Herta Herzog (1910-2010) interviewed soap opera listeners and discovered three gratifications categories: emotional, wishful thinking, and learning.


• The theory underwent a revival in the 1970s. Elihu Katz (b. 1926), Jay Blumler (b. 1924), Michael Gurevitch (1930-2008) and others have expanded upon Herzog's work, making great contributions to Uses and Gratifications Theory.


• There are many reasons people use media. Four primary factors for which one may use the media:

• Diversion: Escape from routine and problems; an emotional release

• Personal Relationships: Social utility of information in conversation; substitution of media for companionship

• Personal Identity or Individual Psychology: Value reinforcement or reassurance; self-understanding, reality exploration

• Surveillance: Information about factors which might affect one or will help one do or accomplish something

Media Systems Dependency Theory

• Media systems dependency theory was developed by Sandra Ball-Rokeach (b. 1941) and Melvin DeFleur (b. 1923) in 1976 in an article titled “A dependency model of mass-media effects”. Communication Research 3 (1): 3–21.


• Media System Dependency Theory argues that there is a positive correlation between media and dependency: The more dependent a person is on media to meet needs, the more prevalent media will be in the person's life, and consequently the person will be more affected by media.


• Ball-Rokeach and DeFleur identify three media needs which determine how important media is to a person at any given moment:

• 1. Surveillance: The need to understand one's social world

• 2. Social Uitlity: The need to act meaningfully and effectively in that world

• 3) Fantasy-Escape: The need to escape from that world when tensions are high

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

• Social cognitive theory postulates that knowledge acquisition can be directly related to observing others within the context of outside media influences.

Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory

• Social cognitive theory developed from the social learning theory proposed by Neal E. Miller (1909-2002) and John Dollard (1900-1980) in 1941.

The Theory of the Long Tail• The theory of the Long Tail states that society

is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number mainstream products at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail.

The Theory of the Long Tail• A big factor in the

Theory of the Long Tail is the Internet. The web allows consumers to find less popular items and subjects. Products with lesser demand can now find an audience. For instance, Amazon, Netflix and iTunes can afford to feature lesser known books, movies and songs. respectively

The Theory of the Long Tail

• The Theory of the Long Tail is obviously relatively new. It was popularized by Chris Anderson (b. 1961) in an article in the October 2004 issue of Wired magazine article. He expounded on the theory in his book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More (2006).

The Principle of Relative Constancy

• The Principle of Relative Constancy claims that the popularity of new media will not completely eliminate established forms of media. For example, the internet will not make TV, radio or newspapers obsolete.

The Principle of Relative Constancy

• For instance, the rise of television in the 1950s cut into the market shares of movies, radio and newspapers. But those media survived.

Smartphones• The smart phone is a

is a mobile phone with advanced computing capacity and connectivity. The device was conceptualized in 1973 but was not produced until 1994. The term “smart phone” debuted in 1997, when Ericsson dubbed its GS 88 “Penelope” concept as a Smart Phone.

Smartphones

• In June 2013, the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project, reported that 61% of Americans own a smart phone. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/)

Smartphones

• 61& marks a significant jump is smart phone ownership. According to Pew’s previous reports, the figure is up from 46& in February 2012 and 35% in May 2011. (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/)

• Based on Moore’s Innovation Adaptation Rate, the smart phone has surpassed the point of innovators , early adopters and early majority and entered the point of a late majority.

Smartphones

• In May 2013, smartphone ownership reached critical mass for the first time in the United States. The device is now self –sustaining. (http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57587932-94/smartphone-ownership-reaches-critical-mass-in-the-u.s/)

Smartphones• Smartphones have the

capacity to meet most needs of the Uses and Gratifications Theory. In June 2013, research by Parks Associates reported that 48% of U.S. smartphone users currently use apps for day-to-day information and entertainment. In addition, 15% a smartphone phone to order food while 12% use the device to shop.(http://www.mobilesecurityzone.com/topics/mobile-security/articles/343963-what-people-use-their-smartphones.htm)

Smartphones• Smartphones are also

exemplars of the Media Systems Dependency Theory. In May 2013, a study from Experian discovered that users spend an average of 58 minutes per day on their smartphones. Talk time still outweighed times spent on other applications. (http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/tech/mobile/smartphone-time-study)

Smartphones• Smartphones are here

to stay. It is predicted that by 2015, 84% of mobile users in North America and 88% in Western Europe will be smartphone users.(http://www.mobilesecurityzone.com/topics/mobile-security/articles/343963-what-people-use-their-smartphones.htm)

The Internet

• The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite. Developed in the 1960s, the Internet has had a tremendous impact on culture and commerce since the mid-1990s and now serves several billion users worldwide.

The Internet

• In 1964, some researchers had begun using their mainframe computers to occasionally trade information through an early, informal form of email.

• This, however, wasn’t trying to create a research network, but rather get their work done more efficiently.

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The Internet• In 1969, critical work on the first network was

being computed.

• APARNET was developed during that time connecting 4 universities.

• APARNET- Advanced Research Projects Agency. One of the world’s first operational packet switching networks.

• This system provided computer scientists and engineers the opportunity to refine ideas for a more ideal communications network.

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The Internet • The ARPANET went on public display for the

first time at the international conference on Computer Communication in October of 1972.

• The first electronic mail delivery engaging two machines was accomplished in 1972 by Ray Tomlinson

• By 1973, 75% of all traffic on the network was e-mail… still mostly researchers sharing information.

• The National Science Foundation started the Computer Science Research Network (CSNET) and had more than 70 sites online by 1983.

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The Internet • Berners- Lee brought his

“World Wide Web” to life in 1990 writing the first html source code. It wasn’t actually online and used by others until a year later.

• 1990 was also the year the ARPARNET was dismissed and replaced by NSFNET- which was said to be 25x faster.

• By 1995, the internet had an estimated 16 million users.

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The Internet

• By 2002, there were between 600 and 800 million users in over 218 countries.

• Now, the internet is a everyday factor in billions of our lives. It is crazy to think way back when the internet was simply just a way to communicate with another person, or group of people more efficiently.

• Today we use it for much more than that, whether it be for education, shopping, paying bills, recreation, work or anything else under the sun, it is something most of us wouldn’t be able to go without.

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The Internet

• As you can see, the internet has come a long way since the 1960’s, and once it became open to the public, there was no slowing it down.

• It took 38 years for radio to get a market of at least 50 million users; it took television 13 years to achieve 50 million users… It took just FOUR years for the internet to achieve 50 million users after becoming public.

• With that being said, it makes it very easy to apply the Critical Mass theory to the internet, as the rate of adoption became self sustaining and allowed for further growth and development.

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The Internet in the years to come

• The internet will continue to become a major part in our everyday lives, and even on a higher level than before.

• It is estimated that by 2015, the number of internet users will double.. Meaning over 60% of the world will be using the internet in one way or another.

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Continued• As for the years in the

2020’s, we can expect virtual reality worlds. It will be as if you can go on vacation while in the office, or be in a conference with someone across the world and literally feel you are in their office with just the click of a button.

• This life size, 3D image will allow people to essentially be several places at once.

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Social Networking• A social networking service is a platform to build

social networks or social relations among people. Numerous social networking applications are available to contemporary users.

Social Networking

• In 1969, CompuServe was the first major commercial internet service provider for the public in the U.S. Played a major role up into the early ‘90s.

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Social Networking

How we got to where we are…

•1971- first email

•1978- bulletin board system was introduced, was able to inform friends of meetings and make announcements. This was considered our first “small virtual community”.

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Social Networking• 1984- The Prodigy online

service came about, quickly becoming the second largest online service provider.

• 1985- AOL opened.

• 1991- The World Wide Web was introduced to the public.

• 1993- more than 200 webservers were online.

• 1994- Yahoo opened as a major interent search engine.

• The internet was referred to as “information superhighway”…

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Social Networking • 1997- The web has one

million sites. Blogging begins. AOL instant messager lets people chat. Blackboard is founded as an online course management system for educators and learners.

• 1998- Google opens.

• 2000- 70 million computers were connected to the interent.

• 2001- Wikipedia was started.

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Social Networking • 2002- Friendster, a social

networking website, opened to the public.

• AOL had 34 million memebers.

• 2003- Myspace was created.

• Linkedln was started as a business-oriented social networking site of professionals.

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Social Networking• 2004- Facebook was created.

• 2006- Twitter became public.

• 2008- Facebook had more users than Myspace.

• 2009- Facebook ranked as most-used social network.

• 2011- Social media was accessible from anywhere!! There were more than 550 million users on FB, 65 million tweets, 2 billion video views on YouTube and 90 million professionals on LinkedIn.

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Social Networking • As you can see, Social

Networking definitely blew up in the last few years, especially since smart phones came about.

• Not only is social networking used for personal reasons, but it is really growing on the business end in terms of advertising.

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Social Networking• When applying a theory to

explain the phenomena of social media it only makes sense to apply the Uses and Gratifications theory, which explains the many reasons of why people use media.

• Whether it be diversion, personal relationships, personal identity or surveillance, millions of people have found social media to become an integrated part of their life.

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Application • While social networking may

appear a little different in the years to come, it certainly isn’t going anywhere.

• We may see the disappearance of some social media, like Facebook, if they don’t do a little renovation, so to speak. Studies show that around 34% of Facebook users say their time on the site has decreased, with only 3% saying they will spend more time on the site in the next year.

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Application cont. • While the use of Facebook

may be declining, social media is still on the rise. This rise has much to do with smart phones.

• Social media in the future will be critical on the business end in terms of creating a brand. In fact, studies show with this rise of social networking, businesses will suffer without social media strategy.

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Television• Television is a medium

for transmitting and receiving moving images and sounds. Kenjiro Takayanagi demonstrated the first working television in Japan in 1926. The technology became commercially available in the late 1920s and has been a primary means of communication since the 1950s.

Television

• The first electronic television picture was produced in 1927 by Philo Farnsworth.

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Television

• Experimental broadcast television began in the early 1930’s, however it wasn’t until 1947 that television’s growth really escaladed.

• By the 1950’s, there were over seven million TV sets being used.

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Television • While the television has

been a big part of the American life for sometime now, it wasn’t all smooth sailing, yet it survived.

• It survived World War II when all but one network was cancelled.

• It survived game show and live T.V. scandals.

• And it has survived with the advancement of other technologies.

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Application • With it’s survival

throughout the years and continual usage by millions of households, one could apply The Principle of Relative Constancy. With other technology advancements with the internet and smart phones, the television will also continue to survive and adapt in the future.

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Television • While there has been fear

of “cord cutting” and losing television to the internet, the internet could actually be helping television live a longer life. Although it isn’t the tradition television we think of when one mentions Netflix, Hulu plus or just watching videos through YouTube, it is providing more ways to watch and favor television shows, creating a larger audience.

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Television • In short, the future of the

television is being able to watch our favorite shows any time what we want through different mediums. Whether it be through a tablet, laptop, traditional television or a smart T.V., it will adapt and adjust to fit the mold of the advancement in technology.

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Sources • Geoffrey A. Moore, Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to

Mainstream Customer, New York: Harper Collins, Inc. 2002, p. 11

• August E. Grant and Jennifer H. Meadows, Communications Technology Update, Focal Press, 2013 p. 2

• Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations: 5th Edition, New York: Harper Collins, Inc., 2002, p.11

• Joanna Stern, ABC News. “More Than Half of Americans Own Smartphones.” June 6th. 2013.

• Retrieve at: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/technology/2013/06/more-than-half-of-americans-own-smartphones/

• Dana Kerr, “Smartphone ownership reaches critical mass in the U.S.: For the first time ever, more than half of the U.S. population now owns a smartphone. And people are choosing Android devices and iPhones almost equally. June 5, 2013

• Nicholas Hoin. “What Do People Use Their Smartphones For?” June 28th, 2013

• Retrieve at http://news.cnet.com/8

• Heather Kelly. “People use smartphones nearly an hour a day, study says” May 29, 2013.

• Retrieve at: http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/tech/mobile/smartphone-time-study

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Sources cont.• Social Media Today (2013, April 29th) The Future of Social Media.

• Retrieve from: http://socialmediatoday.com/starrknight/1423216/future-social-media

• Dr. Anthony Curtis. (2013) The Brief History of Social Media.

• Retrieve from: http://www.uncp.edu/home/acurtis/NewMedia/SocialMedia/SocialMediaHistory.html

• Graeme Mcmillian (7/30/2013) Why the Internet may actually be good for the Future of TV.

• Retrieved from: http://www.wired.com/underwire/2013/07/cord-cutting-television/

• Elon University School of Communications: Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast.

• Retrieve from: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/2016.xhtml

• http://www.emmytvlegends.org/resources/tv-history

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arpanet

• Google images

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http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/2016.xhtml

http://www.emmytvlegends.org/resources/tv-history