carolinas integrated sciences & assessments (cisa) work to support nidis july 31 st – august 1...
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Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA)
Work to Support NIDIS
July 31st – August 1st, 2012Wilmington, NC
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Regional Integrated Sciences & AssessmentsNOAA’s RISA program supports research that addresses climate sensitive issues in the following areas:
• Water• Fisheries• Wildlife• Agriculture• Public Health• Coastal Management
There are 11 regional programs, including Alaska and the Pacific.
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Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA)
CISA works with a variety of stakeholders to incorporate climate information into water and coastal management, public health, and related decision-making processes.
Southeast Regional Climate CenterNC Sea Grant SC Sea Grant ConsortiumState Climate Offices (NC & SC)Federal, state, local agenciesPrivate sectorNon governmental organizations
Core focus areas:• Drought• Climate and watershed
modeling• Coastal climate• Health• Adaptation
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CISA Project Partners• East Carolina University
• Water resources scenarios • National Integrated Drought Information System
• Planning meetings on drought and coastal ecosystems• NOAA, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular
Research• Monitoring Carolina estuaries for Vibrio
• North Carolina State Climate Office• Drought research project
• South Carolina State Climate Office• Workshops for SC DNR staff working on wildlife action plans
• USGS, SC Water Science Center• Saltwater intrusion scenarios and tool
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Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT)• Map
Navigation Tools
• GIS Tools
• Metadata
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Assessing Drought Indicators and Triggers
USDM KB
DI
Streamflow
Groundwater
PDSI
SPI6
CMI
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Frequency of Drought Class Severity Measured by Different Indices
Adapted from Mizzell (2009)
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Communicating the Certainty of Drought Data
1 = Extreme drought with a large residual (Low certainty)2 = Extreme drought with a minimal residual (High certainty)3 = Extreme drought with a medium residual (Medium certainty)
• Project examined ways to communicate drought data, as well as its corresponding degree of certainty, and tested the effectiveness of different symbols.
• Results to be used in future work to develop decision support tools and maps.
Adapted from Fowler (2010)
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• Pee Dee River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Salinity Intrusion Model (PRISM)
Assessing the Impact of Saltwater Intrusion in the Carolinas Under Future Climatic and Sea-Level Conditions
Adapted from Conrads (2011)
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Understanding Needs for a Drought Early Warning System: Drought Impacts and Stresses on Coastal Ecosystems
• March 2010 workshop• 29 participants: researchers, resource managers, education-
outreach specialists – federal, state, local
• Concerns• Lack of data, knowledge, understanding: hydrological
processes, long-term biological or ecological data, appropriate management tools or actions
• Management: reactive, lack of integration, lack of awareness (public and local decision makers)
• Lack of funding to support monitoring, research
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Needs and Preferences: Management• Empirical data that demonstrates drought-
related impacts
• Online decision-support tools to improve access to information
• Coordination or partnerships across organizations
• Public education and outreach – accessible and locally relevant information
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Needs and Preferences: Scientific Information and Tools• Long-term datasets
• Science-based models to analyze and link hydrology, ecological impacts, socio-economic variables
• Information regarding climate variability and change impacts on river systems and ecosystems
• Forecasts to indicate estuarine salt water gradients
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State of Knowledge Report
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•Geographic scope
•About the research
The Impact of Drought on Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas
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Key Themes and Findings• Coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to long-term
and recurrent severe droughts• Changes in freshwater inflows, salinity
• Difficulties in defining and measuring drought
• Some systems, processes, and locations have been well-studied and researched
• Estuarine systems• Salt marshes• Tidal freshwater forested wetlands• Non-alluvial wetlands
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Literature Gaps and Research Needs
• Specific ecosystems and species
• Long-term studies and causal linkages
• Tools, models, and ecological indicators to research and monitor drought
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NIDIS Pilot Project in the Carolinas
• Spring 2012• Identified interested organizations, agencies,
individuals• Informal meeting: NOAA in the Carolinas, March 2012• Steering Committee, May - present
• Scoping Workshop (July 31-August 1)• Identify concerns and needs• Identify and/or begin to prioritize key needs• Consider the types of activities needed to support a
drought early warning system: monitoring, applications, communications, related research