case financials szln
DESCRIPTION
Working fileTRANSCRIPT
Forecasted 1,250 1,650 2,200 2,200 1 2 3 4
2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Operat (10.06) 11.94 42.19 42.19 Capex (4.45) (3.11) (5.90) (5.90)Cash Flow (14.51) 8.83 36.29 36.29 Debt Repa (5.88) (2.12) - - Finance Co (1.07) (0.76) (0.68) (0.68)Equity Fre (21.46) 5.95 35.61 35.61 Equity Fre (32.72) 9.07 54.30 54.30
Discount
8% (30.30) 7.78 43.11 39.91 10% (29.75) 7.50 40.80 37.09 12% (29.22) 7.23 38.65 34.51 14% (28.71) 6.98 36.65 32.15 16% (28.21) 6.74 34.79 29.99
Investment in Exploration(PV Ignored)
2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 5 6 7 8
2013 2014 2015 2016
38.35 34.87 31.70 28.82 (5.90) (5.90) (5.90) (5.90) 32.45 28.97 25.80 22.92 - - - (9.05) (0.68) (0.68) (0.68) (0.68) 31.77 28.29 25.12 13.19 48.45 43.14 38.30 20.11
DCF 32.98 27.18 22.35 10.86 153.87 30.09 24.35 19.66 9.38 139.11 27.49 21.85 17.33 8.12 125.97 25.16 19.65 15.31 7.05 114.25 23.07 17.70 13.55 6.13 103.77
15.00
Current Valuation of equity
Number of shares outstanding 196.88 MillionShare Price 0.14 AU $
Market Value 27.56 AU $ MN
Valuation based on average stock price
Six months avg stock price 0.41 AU $One year avg stock price 0.94 AU $
Market Value at six month average 81.38 AU $ MNMarket Value at one year average 185.73 AU $ MN
Valuation offered by CBH (Oct' 08)
Swap Ratio - 4.2:1Share price of CBH (Sep'08) 0.07 AU $No of shares CBH will offer 826.91 Million
Market Value of offer 57.88 AU $ MN
Net Book Value (Jun 2008) 148.00 AU $ MN
Date Jun'08 Dec'07 Broken Hill FlindersMount Oxide
Ownership 55%Amount RMB 341mn
ReserveOre (MT) 19.7 17.3 10.02 0.210933Zinc 3.31% 13.10% 6.10%Lead 1.05% 7.60% 4.50%Silver
Zinc (MT) 0.65207 2.2663 0.61122Lead (MT) 0.20685 1.3148 0.4509
0.85892 3.5811 1.06212
Net Asset RMB 620mn AU $138mnValuation RMB 620mn AU $576mn AU $24mn
620 575.7
96.04808601343.9578008 Current Valuation
Mount Oxide
4.4821 0.22311 1.5249336.8349 8
12.19946
859AU $24mn 125.6785
57.8835 27.56357 191.6471
Current Valuation 27.56357
-21.46 1485.94
35.61
Grading on Chinese mines were low as compared to Australian mines
Prices of base metals delined greatly in 2008Mining companies suffered significant operating losses and experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining finance.2008 - Global Prodn of Zinc - 11.9MT and consumption 11.8MT55% of domestic zinc was used in hot-dip galvanizing. More galvanizing units expected to be put into operations, hence Zinc demand expected to grow.Lead-acid batteries (the main lead consuming industry) had grown 20% and 35% domestically and exportsSupply side constraints bcoz of lack of high quality mines andlimited smeltring capacity