CASE STUDIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND AFRICAN COASTAL FISHERIES: A VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS

FIPI/C1113 (En)

FAO Fisheries and

Aquaculture Circular

ISSN 2070-6065

Cover photos: Clockwise from top: Melita Samoilys, Melita Samoilys, Matt Richmond.

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No.1113 FIPI/C1113 (En)ISSN 2070-6065

CASE STUDIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND AFRICAN COASTAL FISHERIES: A VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Edited by

Jim Anderson Independent Consultant Ville-la-Grand, France

Timothy AndrewDirector, Outreach and Resource Mobilization Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association Zanzibar, Tanzania

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSRome, 2016

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ISBN 978-92-5-109218-7

© FAO, 2016

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PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT

This circular has been compiled as part of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD)–FAO Fish Programme (NFFP) Component C (FMM/GLO/003/MUL) and the FAO’s EAF-Nansen Project. The objective of this circular is to investigate the nature of the impacts of climate change on four case study fisheries in Africa, to gauge the vulnerability of their corresponding social-ecological systems and to identify current and potential coping mechanisms/strategies and biophysical and social characteristics/attributes that increase resilience to these impacts. The case studies were selected according to a set of criteria defined by the NFFP and the EAF-Nansen Project. The criteria included geographic location (the Gulf of Guinea, the coast of Northwest Africa and the western Indian Ocean) and the inclusion of a small island developing state. The case studies are:

• the small pelagic fisheries of the United Republic of Tanzania;

• the coral reef fishery of Seychelles;

• the small pelagic fisheries of Ghana; and

• the small pelagic fisheries of Senegal.

The coral reef fishery of Seychelles was included because of the importance and widespread nature of this kind of fishery in the western Indian Ocean; the fact that the vulnerability of fisheries in small island states is often more easily observed than for other fisheries; and as an alternative case study for comparison to the pelagic fisheries chosen for the three other case studies.

FAO. 2016. Case studies on climate change and African coastal fisheries: a vulnerability analysis and recommendations for adaptation options, edited by Jim Anderson and Timothy Andrew. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1113. Rome, Italy.

ABSTRACT

The NEPAD–FAO Fish Programme (NFFP) and the EAF-Nansen Project are currently collating and exploring evidence for the current and potential impacts of climate change on fisheries in Africa. The overall goal of this activity is to contribute to the design and implementation of appropriate interventions, with a view to reducing these impacts, both on the ground at a local level and at the national and regional policy level.

To this end, the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA) was contracted to coordinate four specialist authors who were asked to produce case studies on small-scale fisheries in different parts of Africa. The objective was to investigate in detail the nature of the impacts (of climate change) on, and vulnerabilities of the selected social-ecological systems and, to identify current and potential coping mechanisms/strategies as well as biophysical and social characteristics/attributes that increase resilience to these impacts.

The report consists of five chapters. The opening chapter introduces the general approach and methodology used to compile the case studies and a definition of terms. It also provides a brief overview of the phenomenon of ocean acidification − to which all four case study fisheries are vulnerable − and an introduction to some key observations on the ecology of small pelagic species, the focus of three of the four case studies. The remaining four chapters deal in turn with the individual case studies, providing ecological and socio-economic details on the four fisheries and collating a wide range of available knowledge on their exposure and potential sensitivity to climate change or climate variability. Each chapter includes observations on the adaptive capacity of the social-ecological system and concludes with observations on the potential role of fisheries management institutions to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

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ACkNOwLEDGEMENTS

This report was researched and written by a team of specialist authors − Jim Anderson, Melita Samoilys, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Francis K.E. Nunoo and Djiga Thiao − under the auspices of the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA). The compilers of this report are grateful to these authors, to the NEPAD FAO Fish Programme team and the EAF-Nansen Project, in particular Florence Poulain, Kwame Koranteng, Tarub Bahri, Cassandra DeYoung and Merete Tandstad. Thanks also go to Claire Attwood and Marianne Guyonnet for their contribution to the finished publication.

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CONTENTS

Abstract ....................................................................................................................................iii

Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................................iv

List of acronyms ..............................................................................................................................vi

Executive summary .........................................................................................................................ix

Chapter 1: Background ................................................................................................................1

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania Jim Anderson, Melita Samoilys ......................................................................................................19

Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles Jim Anderson, Melita Samoilys ......................................................................................................61

Chapter 4: The small pelagic fisheries of Ghana Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Francis K.E. Nunoo .............................................................................101

Chapter 5: The small pelagic fisheries of Senegal Djiga Thiao ....................................................................................................................................127

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LIST OF ACRONYMS

AEW African easterly waves

AMO Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation

APW Ali-Poli-Watsa (gear)

AVHRR Advanced very high resolution radiometer

BMU Beach management unit

BR Bleaching response

CBFMC Community-based fisheries management committees

CCC Central Coordinating Committee

CCLME Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem

CECAF Fishery Committee for the Eastern Central Atlantic

CFMA Collaborative fishery management area

CORDIO-EA Coastal Oceans Research and Development Indian Ocean − East Africa

CPUE Catch per unit effort

CRODT Oceanographic Research Centre of Dakar-Thiaroye

DFID Department for International Development (of the United Kingdom)

DFMR Department of Fisheries and Marine Resources (Zanzibar)

DFO District-level fisheries officers

DHM Degree heating months

DHW Degree heating weeks

DIC Dissolved inorganic carbon

DNA Deoxyribonucleic acid

DoC Drivers of change

DSFA Deep Sea Fishing Authority

DWFN Distant water fishing nations

EACC East African Coastal Current

EAMFRO East African Marine Fisheries Research Organization

EEZ Exclusive economic zone

EIA Environmental impact analysis

EMPS Environment Management Plan of Seychelles

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation

EU European Union

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FD Fisheries Division (of Tanzania mainland)

FDD Fisheries Development Division (Tanzania mainland)

FEC Fishermen’s Executive Committee

GCLME Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem

GCRMN Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network

GDP Gross domestic product

GEF Global Environment Facility

GFCM General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean

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GHG Green house gas

GOG Gulf of Guinea

ICOADS International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set

ICZM Integrated coastal zone management

ILO International Labour Organization

IOBM Indian Ocean Basin Mode

IOC/COI Indian Ocean Commission

IOD Indian Ocean Dipole

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone

ITF Indonesian throughflow

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

LOA Length overall

MBCA Menai Bay Conservation Area

MBREMP Mnazi Bay-Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park

MC Municipal or District Council

MCA Marine conservation area

MISD Management and Information Systems Division (Ministry of Information Technology and Communication) of Seychelles

MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation

MLD Mixed layer depth

MOFA Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Ghana)

MOFAD Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture Development (Ghana)

MPA Marine protected area

MSY Maximum sustainable yield

NBS National Bureau of Statistics

Nd No date

NE Northeast

NECC North Equatorial Counter Current

NEMC Northeast Madagascar Current

NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development

NFFP NEPAD-FAO Fish Programme

NGO Non-govermental organization

Nmi Nautical miles

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA-AVHRR National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

NOAA-ESRL National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (of the United States) Earth System Research Laboratory

OISO Oceanic intraseasonal oscillations

Ppm Parts per million

QBO Quasi biennial oscillation

ReCoMaP Regional Programme for the Sustainable Management of the Coastal Zones of the Countries of the Indian Ocean

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RNA Ribonucleic acid

R/V Research vessel

SC Somali Current

SD Standard deviation

SE Southeast

SEC South Equatorial Current

SECC South Equatorial Counter Current

SEMC Southeast Madagascar Current

SFA Seychelles Fishing Authority

SFC Shehia Fishermen’s Committees

SIDA Swedish International Development Agency

SLP Sea level pressure

SRES Special Report Emissions Scenarios

SST Sea surface temperature

SWIOFP Project for the Development and Management of Fisheries in the Southwest Indian Ocean

SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

TAC Total allowable catch

TAFICO Tanzania Fishing Corporation

TCZCDP Tanga Coastal Zone Conservation and Development Programme

TEK Traditional ecological knowledge

Tsh Tanzanian Shilling

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNEP/NCS UNEP/Nairobi Convention Secretariat

UNEP-WCMC United Nations Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre

UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund

URT United Republic of Tanzania

USAID United States Agency for International Development

UV Ultraviolet (radiation)

UVC Underwater visual census

VA Vulnerability assessment

WAM West African Monsoon

WARFP World Bank West Africa Fisheries Project

WGI AR5 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

WIO Western Indian Ocean

WIOLaB Addressing Land-based Activities in the Western Indian Ocean

WIOMSA Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association

WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

ZAFICO Zanzibar Fishing Corporation

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. Assessment approach

The four case studies were guided by the widely-adopted Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment framework, and its definitions and concepts. They also took into account the insights contributed by Marshall et al. (2010) and Cinner et al. (2013) (Figure 1). Therefore, each chapter includes, where feasible, sections that relate to the various components of the framework: exposure, sensitivity, recovery potential/adaptive capacity, etc.

In addition to the overall structure provided by the framework, the three case studies on small pelagic fisheries were informed by a schematic diagram of a small pelagic ecosystem and the likely pathways of influence of climate change developed by Fréon et al. (2009).

The extent to which the various components of the framework and the climate change pathways may be analysed for a particular assessment clearly depend on the resources available – both human and financial – and on the information that is available or can be generated. In this instance, the case studies are based entirely on existing data, and information sourced and collated by the authors of the individual chapters.

Figure 1: Vulnerability assessment framework (source: adapted from IPCC, 2007; Marshall et al., 2010; Cinner et al., 2013)

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2. Findings

United Republic of Tanzania (URT)The principle ocean currents of the western Indian Ocean (WIO) are presented in Figure 2. The westward-flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) is the major current and flows throughout. It is located in a band at approximately 15 to 20 °S. The SEC is driven by a number of processes, including forcing by the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) and − through the southeast Trades − by atmospheric processes associated with the heating of the Indian/South Asian landmass.1

The marine ecosystemMahongo and Shagude (2013) described Tanzania’s coastal waters as “nutrient-poor water resulting in low productivity”, lacking upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters and largely characterized by downwelling. There is, however, a pronounced seasonality in primary productivity, as measured by pigment concentrations of chlorophyll-a. Higher levels of primary productivity are associated with the southeast monsoon, during which time the mixed layer increases in depth as a result of the increased velocity of the southeast trade winds and their interaction with the SEC.

1. E.g. Han et al., 2006; Schott et al., 2009.

Figure 2: Representation of WIO currents during the SE Monsoon (source: adapted from Schott et al., 2009)

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There is some evidence that observed “upper-ocean warming in the south Indian Ocean can be attributed to a reduction in the southeast trade winds and associated decrease in the southward transport of heat from the tropics to the subtropics”.2 Changes to the southeast Trades might feasibly reduce the strength of the downwelling, but lower windstress may also lead to increased ocean stratification, thereby reducing the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. However, the evidence for a climate change-driven reduction in the velocity of southeast trade winds is highly equivocal and recent behaviour of the SEC may be a part of a decadal cycle of meridional ocean circulation in both the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, the explanation for which “needs further investigation”.3

Rainfall and freshwater influx into coastal waters are important for local productivity of small pelagic fish and the relationship between river discharge, nutrient supply and concentrations of chlorophyll-a in coastal waters off Tanzania was discussed by Lugomela et al. (2001) and by authors referenced therein. There are eight main rivers that discharge into Tanzania’s coastal waters, with a total basin drainage estimated at 438 000 km2.4 Preliminary analyses provided by the IPCC (2013) for changes in rainfall across East Africa suggest an increase through to 2100, particularly during the period of the northeast monsoon. Downscaling of these analyses shows an increase in precipitation in the watersheds of some of the major Tanzanian rivers that drain into the western Indian Ocean, with concomitant increases likely in water discharge and presumably terrigenous nutrient load. On the other hand, rather than there being an evenly distributed increase in the mean seasonal precipitation level, increased rainfall may be irregular and arrive in the form of storms. Therefore, the timing of rainfall anomalies, the increase in supply of nutrients and any subsequent increase in primary productivity, may not necessarily match the life cycle of the small pelagic fish populations.5

A number of researchers have reported on the trend of increased sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean6 and the IPCC (2013) reported that “The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) has a strong warming trend (significant at 1 percent since the middle of the 20th century)”.

The causes of the SST warming trend are complex however, and may not be simply a result of climate change. For example, Xie et al. (2002) suggested that the SST variability in the western tropical South Indian Ocean (up to 50 percent of the total variance in certain seasons) is not locally forced, but is instead a result of oceanic subsurface Rossby waves propagating from the east, which in turn are forced by El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (Figure 3). Furthermore, a phenomenon known as oceanic intraseasonal oscillations (OISOs) in the SEC are also believed to be important in determining SST. OISOs propagate in the south-eastern Indian Ocean as a result of baroclinic instability in the eastern Indian Ocean, and are then transmitted westward across the Indian Ocean (as Rossby waves) through the SEC. OSIOs are believed to contribute more to SST variability than surface heat fluxes. OISOs are also key determinants of rainfall anomalies in East Africa (Zhou et al. op cit.). Meyer and Weerts (2009) reported that long-term variability in the ITF from the Pacific Ocean “may be associated with changes in SST in the tropical Indian Ocean” and indeed the baroclinic stability that leads to OSIOs is itself strongly forced by the ITF.

2. IPCC, 2007.3. Lee, 2009.4. Bwathondi & Mwamsojo, 1993.5. Cushing, 1974; Bakun, 2010.6. e.g. Han et al., 2006; Luffman, 2009; Zhou et al., 2008; Cai et al., 2008.

Figure 3: Indian Ocean SST anomalies and size of correlation with El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean (source: redrawn from Schott et al., 2009)

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Schott et al. (2009) stated that a 20-year time series of annual mean heat fluxes indicates that the net heat flux in the Indian Ocean has not increased and went on to suggest that ocean dynamics play a more important role than previously understood in the observed warming trend (as opposed to ocean basin climate or climate change effects). They also suggested, as other researchers have done, that SST anomalies may involve teleconnections between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean’s ENSO phenomenon (Figure 3). The possible link with ENSO is important because the IPCC has reported only “low confidence in the current understanding of how (or if) climate change will influence the behaviour of ENSO and other long-term climate patterns”,7 while Collins et al. (2010) stated that “As far as we know, [ENSO] could intensify, weaken, or even undergo little change depending on the balance of changes in the underlying processes”. In summary, observed SST anomalies may reflect natural climate variability rather than anthropogenic climate change per se.

Socio-economic sensitivityThe most detailed investigation into the biodiversity of the waters off the URT was undertaken in the 1960s and suggests upwards of 95 species of small pelagic fish, with 19 species reported as being abundant in the catch. The first surveys of fisheries resource abundance (including small pelagic fish) off Tanzania’s coast were undertaken in 1976/77 by the research vessel (R/V) Professor Mesyatsev. Additional fisheries surveys were undertaken by R/V Dr Fridtjof Nansen in 1982/83. The Nansen cruises identified the most abundant small pelagic species as Amblygaster sirm, Sardinella gibbosa, S. albella and S. leiogaster, as well as a number of Scads (Decapturus maruadsi, D. macrosoma, and Atule mate). The anchovy, Stolephorous punctifer, was important in trawl surveys in the Zanzibar Channel.8

The small pelagic fishery of the URT is generally a small-scale commercial operation using ring-net gears; the small-scale industrial fishery ceased operations in the late 1980s. Catch statistics suggest a figure of approximately 8 000 tonnes of small pelagic fish for mainland Tanzania and 3 000 tonnes for Zanzibar. However, there is significant interannual variability in both yield and species composition.

Fisheries management activities are delivered separately by the two members of the URT (Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar), but fisheries resource managers across the URT continue to face many challenges in delivering a sustainable fishery, even without the added threat of climate change. There are relatively few accurate data on the total catch and effort in the small pelagic fishery, and limited accuracy in family, genus and species identification.9 For example, recent (2000 to 2012) data from Zanzibar report anchovies as members of the Clupeidae family, whereas they are actually Engraulidae. In terms of overall catch estimates, this problem seems to persist for a number of reasons. Firstly, the accurate sampling of catches across all fisheries is problematic because of logistical and human resource challenges. Secondly, most coastal districts aggregate much of the data, losing resolution before it is entered into a database. And thirdly, because of the sampling of large numbers of individual fish, catches of small pelagic fish can be difficult to sample accurately without a well-designed catch subsampling protocol.

Poor quality data present enormous challenges to fishery managers seeking to deliver a sustainable fishery, and for tracking (and subsequently adapting to) any impacts of climate change.

In terms of total fishing effort, a “rapid” frame survey10 recorded 1 148 ring-nets for mainland Tanzania, although the historical accuracy of frame surveys in Tanzania has been problematic, not least in terms of defining a standard unit for a ring-net. And, because of the challenges with the data, direct employment in the small pelagic fishery is difficult to estimate. However, it is estimated there are between 5 000 and 13 000 fishers, the latter figure equating to approximately 37 percent of all mainland fishers. For Zanzibar, the 2010 frame survey recorded 209 ring-nets, with an estimated direct employment of approximately 2 500 fishers, or 7 percent of the total number of fishers.

7. IPCC, 2014.8. Iverson et al., 1984.9. Van der Elst et al., 2005; Jacquet & Zeller, 2007.10. Van der Knaap, 2013.

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There is limited contemporary information available on the economics of the small pelagic fishery and therefore it is difficult to make any informed comments on the sensitivity of the fishery to possible declines in abundance of fish. For example, the opportunity cost of capital for vessel owners or of traders to participate in this particular fishery is not known at this point in time, and therefore the scale of variation in landings or unit production costs that would be necessary for participants to leave the fishery is also unknown. Similarly, the opportunity cost of labour (crew) for the fishing operations is unknown and the use of the catch is also poorly understood. For instance, reports from 1997 indicate that there is significant trade with the battery-chicken industry, but this trade has not been accurately quantified.

Small pelagic fish are generally low value fish, although the prices vary significantly from district to district and on a day-to-day basis. A 2013 fisheries economics study11 in Zanzibar indicated that “sardines” fetched a mean price of less than USD0.5/kg. The next highest “category” of fish (surgeonfish) was priced at approximately USD1.5/kg. The only recent information identified on the trade in small pelagic fish (from Zanzibar) was the study by Fröcklin et al. (op cit.) for which 42 traders from ten fish markets around Zanzibar’s Unguja Island were interviewed. The selling of “sardines” ranked last in economic importance for the traders, with only 10 percent of women traders stating it was economically important to them; the equivalent figure for male traders was approximately 15 percent. By contrast, more than 75 percent of all traders stated that the trade in the “emperors” category (broadly covering Lethrinidae) was economically important to them.

In terms of estimated economic value, for mainland Tanzania in 2012 the small pelagic fishery was worth approximately USD16.9 million, about 12 percent of total first sales revenues from coastal marine fisheries. For Zanzibar the estimated value for 2012 was USD5.9 million, or approximately 11 percent of the first sales value of marine fisheries.

Tanzania is a country where employment opportunities are relatively scarce; the official unemployment rate was 10.7 percent in 2011, although this excludes the informal sector that is estimated to employ 10 percent of the available labour force. The employment challenge is particularly serious for young people; 900 000 young Tanzanians enter the job market each year, but the economy only creates 50 000 to 60 000 new jobs in the formal economy12. Given the lack of data, it is currently impossible to realistically determine the sensitivity of fishing crews’ livelihoods to any reduction in opportunities in the small pelagic fishery. It is not known whether the individuals who work in the fishery are full-time, “career” crew, or participate on a part-time or seasonal basis, or even on a casual and ad hoc basis. Certainly, any reduction in the size of the small pelagic fishery, whether as a result of natural fluctuations or fluctuations exaggerated by anthropogenic climate change, would be unwelcome, but little more than that can be said at this stage.

The only data identified on the biology of small pelagic species in fisheries landings dates back to 1970 and includes length-frequency data. This raises concerns about current knowledge of the fishery, especially given the fact that the data suggest that the species investigated (Sardinella gibbosa and S. albella) were both fished at sizes well below the estimated length at first maturity. And if, as seems probable, the stocks of small pelagic fish are shared between the mainland and Zanzibar, there is clearly an urgent need to establish a mechanism whereby, in future, the management of the fishery is coordinated between the two members of the URT.

The characteristics of small pelagic species demand fishery management strategies that are flexible and responsive.13 The response of the government of mainland Tanzania to the lack of management of the fishery has been to prepare the management plan for the Tanzanian artisanal fishery for small and medium pelagic fish species.14 The plan currently lacks any specific details about the regulations (for example limits on fishing effort) that are to be applied in the fishery, but the expectation is that the content will be developed in the near future.

11. Fröcklin et al., 2013.12. Kushner, 2013.13. Ommer et al., 2013.14. Anon, 2013.

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The plan has six objectives, but for the purposes of this case study only three are commented on, as follows:

i. Maximize long-term economic and socio-economic sustainability of the fishery (e.g. improve catch rates & size structure): the high natural variability of abundance (and population structure) of small pelagic species presents significant challenges to ensuring “long-term” sustainability in Tanzania’s particular fishery management context, which is characterized by largely non-existent effort controls and very sparse and unreliable data. The choice of catch rates as an indicator of sustainability is high risk, particularly for small pelagic fish, which are schooling fish and aggregate naturally, even at very low levels of abundance. What this means in practice is that catch rates tend to decline more slowly than abundance, increasing the risk of a stock collapse because declines are not easily detected by the chosen indicator.15

ii. Manage stocks to ecologically sustainable levels (trophic interactions): given the multi-species complexity of the small pelagic ecosystem, and the lack of knowledge about what genera/species currently dominate the system, the challenge is to clearly define ecologically sustainable levels.

iii. Rebuild stocks to minimize risk to the resource (recruitment, etc.): this would require regular (e.g. annual/biannual) updates of biomass estimates in order to set quotas or total allowable catches (TACs) to limit fishing mortality. Biomass estimates (such as through the egg-production method) require relatively expensive research vessels and appropriate technical capacity. Furthermore, the management authorities would need the means to actually implement the effort controls and partners in the industry that would agree to such limits. Currently the plan proposes licensing through the Central Coordinating Committees (CCCs), which manage the Collaborative Fishery Management Areas (CFMAs), via local government authorities for the small-scale fishers, and by the Ministry for semi-industrial fisheries. However, the CCCs currently lack the capacity to perform this role.16 Negotiation will be required to allocate quotas or permits to both the small-scale fisheries and the semi-industrial/industrial fisheries, and to demarcate the fishing grounds.

Under a forthcoming World Bank/Global Environment Facility (GEF)-funded programme entitled “SWIOFISH”, the small pelagic fishery is identified as a priority fishery (along with five others). This presents the URT with a good opportunity to develop the information and management structures required to rigorously apply the management plan. However, during various preparatory meetings and workshops held under the SWIOFISH pre-appraisal mission (pers. obs.) the small pelagic fishery appears to be targeted for expansion, partly to reduce fishing pressure on other fisheries, particularly on coral reef fisheries. The productivity of the latter fisheries is threatened both by overfishing and by environmental disturbance, principally from dynamite fishing as well as bleaching episodes. Given the complexity and natural variability of small pelagic ecosystems, the lack of data on the fishery and the difficulties in predicting the response of small pelagic species to anthropogenic climate change, caution is required by decision-makers who may be tempted to see the small pelagic fishery as a fishery that can absorb excess capacity from other fisheries.

SeychellesThe marine ecosystemThe Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) estimates the total area of coral reef around Seychelles to be 1 690 km² with an area of 40 km² around the inner islands,17 while Andréfouët et al. (2009) estimated the total coral reef area at 5 443 km². A possible reason for this difference is presented by Andréfouët as the inclusion of “deep terraces with constructions found in barrier reef, banks and atolls respectively”; this contributed 70 percent (or 3 490km²) to the overall estimate. The reefs of the

15. Hilborn & Walters, 1992; Walters, 2003.16. Anderson & Mwangamilo, 2013.17. Wilkinson, 2008.

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Seychelles comprise an estimated 174 species of coral in 55 genera,18 although recent estimates suggest up to 217 species are present.19 There are an estimated 400 to 749 species of coral reef associated fish.20

Lagabrielle et al. (2009) undertook an assessment of the relative importance of eight drivers of change (DoC) to coral reef ecosystem functions in the WIO. The assessment was based on the expert opinion of 50 workshop participants. The results for Seychelles suggest coastal fisheries, tourism and sedimentation to be the most significant DoC for the Seychelles.

A Reefs at Risk21 assessment of the spatial distribution of threats to Seychelles’ coral reef ecosystems has been carried out. These threats cover coastal development, marine-based pollution, watershed-based pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing, and are combined into an “integrated local threat” index. The data relate only to coastal reefs and do not provide any insight into the extent of threats to the deeper reef systems on the banks.

Graham et al. (2013) observed that “…much of the ongoing deterioration of coral reefs is attributable to centuries of local human impacts, including overfishing and declining water quality…, further highlighting the need to address local chronic drivers of change in order to reverse phase shifts and maintain coral-dominated reefs”.

However, SST rise and ocean acidification associated with climate change may also be important threats. The key characteristic of the physiology of reef-building (or scleractinian) corals, and one that makes SST a key factor in their survival, is that they are obligate hosts of dinoflagellate symbionts of the genus Symbiodinium, which are more commonly known as zooxanthellae.22 In the situation of high (or at least anomalous) sea surface temperature (SST), the “photosynthetic machinery”23 of zooxanthellae is degraded and the resulting over production of oxygen radicals can lead to cellular damage to both the zooxanthellae and the host coral, leading to a reduction in pigment concentration or expulsion of the symbiont.

The duration of the SST anomalies is one of the most crucial factors in determining the occurrence and extent of bleaching events, and this is captured by the term degree heating weeks (DHW) or degree heating months (DHM). The Seychelles was exposed to significant levels of DHW prior to, or during, the catastrophic 1998 bleaching event.

However, the predictive power of simple SST/DHW is somewhat limited.24 Maina et al. (2008), building on earlier work of McClanahan et al. (2007b) among others, incorporated SST and a number of other potential oceanographic and atmospheric factors into their models. They reported that an interplay of three variables − SST variability, temperature and ultraviolet (UV) incidence − are the variables best able to predict bleaching. They argued that SST variability actually conferred an advantage because it exposed corals to sub-lethal periods of high temperatures, allowing acclimation and adaptation. However, Seychelles is characterized by low temperature variability, high UV incidence and high mean SST.

In the WIO, there are two principle drivers that can lead to SST anomalies (and critical DHW scenarios): ENSO that takes place in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).25 The IOD is usually triggered by ENSO events but it can occur independently, which was first demonstrated in the late 1990s. McClanahan et al. (2007b) noted that the ENSO events of 1982 to 1983, 1987 to 1988 and 1997 to 1998 correlated with the highest mean SSTs in the WIO. Subsequent ENSO events occurred in 2002, 2003 and 2010 and also led to some bleaching in Seychelles.26

18. McClanahan et al., 2000.19. Obura et al., 2012.20. Payet et al., 2005.21. Burke et al., 2011.22. Baker et al., 2008.23. Baker et al., Ibid.24. e.g. Maina et al., 2008; Logan et al., op cit.25. e.g. Baker et al., 2008.26. Government of Seychelles, 2011.

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In terms of the potential outlook for the ocean temperature regime in the vicinity of the Seychelles, Meyer and Weerts (2009) argued that climate change-forced shoaling of the mixed layer may lead to significant decreases in surface and subsurface temperatures in the WIO between Seychelles, Madagascar and the Mozambique Channel. This would imply a reduced exposure to warm SST anomalies. Chang-seng (2007) notes that existing time series SST data for the WIO region, and for Seychelles in particular, are somewhat contradictory, although the SST anomaly data for Mahé generated by the United Kingdom’s Climate Research Unit suggested an increase in the number of positive (warm) SST anomalies since the 1980s. However, Chang-seng also reported National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data for the WIO, which suggests that Seychelles has not been exposed to an overall increase in SST. In summary, evidence that the WIO is undergoing a mean warming as a result of climate change appears equivocal but is discussed in more depth in the chapter on Tanzania.

The potential impact of isolated ENSO events and the IOD in forcing conditions with resulting significant SST anomalies remains an important threat to coral reefs, but, the IPCC has only “low confidence in the current understanding of how (or if) climate change will influence the behaviour of ENSO and other long-term climate patterns”.27 Furthermore, Collins et al. (2010) stated that “As far as we know, [ENSO] could intensify, weaken, or even undergo little change depending on the balance of changes in the underlying processes”.

Whether or not SST anomalies are the result of climate change, they are real and their effects have been dramatic, particularly the 1998 event. One risk associated with climate change is that their frequency may increase, reducing the time available for coral reef ecosystems to recover. Payet et al. (2005) reported an 80 percent mortality of coral reefs in Seychelles in 1998. Buckley et al. (2008), citing various authors including Teleki et al. (1999), Spencer et al. (2000), Spalding and Jarvis (2002) and McClanahan et al. (2007a) reported that coral mortality on the outer reefs of the southern Seychelles ranged from 60 to 75 percent and losses of live coral cover were as high as 60 percent. The World Heritage Site of Aldabra Atoll and the islands of Assumption, Astove and St Pierre, showed losses of up to 50 percent of live coral. Pratchett et al. (2011), citing Jennings (unpub. data), reported a reduction in coral cover from 23 to 50 percent before the bleaching and 0 to 17 percent after.

However, the impact of bleaching events on corals is not uniform on all taxa. McClanahan et al. (2007a) reported on their analysis of the differential response of coral taxa across the WIO to the bleaching events of 1998 and 2005. Porites coral were less vulnerable to bleaching compared to Pocillopora and Acropora.

The effects of the loss of coral reef cover and structure is significant. Wilson et al. (2006) undertook a meta-analysis of 17 independent studies and observed that 62 percent of fish species declined in abundance within three years after a loss of more than 10 percent of coral cover. Loss of structural complexity (or rugosity) is important for a number of reasons, not least being increased post-settlement mortality owing to a lack of hiding places and appropriate food for newly settled juveniles.28 While some local extinctions of albeit highly coral-dependent fish species have been reported,29 the most significant effect is likely to be in reduced ecological function, particularly as it relates to herbivorous species.

There is a wealth of information available on the impact of coral bleaching on reef structure and its subsequent impact on coral reef fish species. For example, Graham et al. (2006) studied the effect of the loss of coral reef cover and structure on species richness by habitat type. Their key finding is that loss of physical structure is the most important factor in driving down species richness on coral reefs, with the declines most notable on carbonate and patch coral reefs, compared to the granite-based reefs. The authors of this study argue that this explains why more instantaneous impacts on fish assemblages are not observed, given that coral structures do not collapse immediately after bleaching occurs. Another useful finding is that the results did not provide evidence of any sort of a threshold of structural complexity below which no further decline of species richness was observed. In other words, the greater the loss of structural complexity, the greater the loss of species richness. For Seychelles, which has experienced at least four bleaching episodes of varying degrees of severity over the past 15 or so years, the loss of significant habitat complexity is a real threat and its concomitant impact on fisheries obvious.

27. IPCC, 2014.28. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007.29. e.g. Pratchett et al., 2006.

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Coral bleaching and its effect on reef structure elicit a range of responses across fish species. Research by Pratchett et al. (2011) looking at four primary functional groups (corallivores, herbivores, planktivores and carnivores), showed that corallivores, for example, displayed a strong trend towards decreased abundance with loss of coral, while carnivores showed a range of responses, both positive and negative. Overall, more species showed a reduced abundance than an increased abundance.

Assessing the recovery potential of Seychelles’ coral reefs from climate change is therefore challenging. GCRMN30 summarized reports on coral reef health by 240 contributors in 98 countries and found that 40 percent of reefs that were seriously damaged by bleaching in 1998 had either “recovered” or were “recovering well”, but no additional quantitative assessments had been undertaken. There is also the danger of phase shifts, however. For example, Ledlie et al. (2007) highlighted the longer-term effect of bleaching on mean coral cover around Cousin Island marine reserve, where extensive coral mortality led to a phase shift from coral to algal dominance (more than 40 percent cover of macroalgae in some areas) and a reduction in live coral cover to less than one percent.

Graham et al. (2006), reporting data on diversity and abundance of 39 species of herbivores sampled in 1994 (17 sites) and 2005 (21 sites) across Seychelles’ inner islands, revealed a lack of recovery over the intervening decade. For example, a 61 percent decline in mean abundance for 11 species of grazers in carbonate-based and a 48 percent decline in mean biomass in patch reef habitat for 10 species in granitic-based reef habitat.31 On the other hand, biomass data was relatively stable. The authors suggested that many of the species are long-lived and therefore biomass remained high because of the presence of larger individuals of cohorts recruited pre-1988. The authors raised concerns over “at most a slow recovery in the Seychelles”, both in absolute terms and in comparison to reefs elsewhere; in East Africa for example. They suggested that this may be a result of the physical isolation of the Seychelles, the loss of habitat complexity and the inability of herbivorous groups to control algal growth.

No data on ocean acidification specific to the Seychelles was reported. However, global research shows that the critical value of aragonite saturation (Ωarag) is 3.3, which is a value expected at CO2

concentrations of 480 parts per million (ppm) and when carbonate ion concentrations drop below 200 mmol kg-1.32 The derived mean global value of Ωarag was 3.8 [standard deviation (SD) = 0.09] in 1999, a decline from 4.6 since 1900, suggesting net calcification has already decreased on some reefs,33 although rates of acidification are not uniform across the oceans. Acidification is believed to play a role in determining bleaching sensitivity.34

There is generally insufficient understanding to provide a detailed assessment of the sensitivity of coral fishes found around the Seychelles to increased ocean dissolved CO2 levels in the ocean and the resulting acidification. At least in the near future, the major threat is going to be indirect, from the loss of habitat and ecosystem function of coral reefs owing to reduced calcification and periodic coral bleaching, a phenomenon that is predicted by some researchers to increase in frequency.35 In any case, the direct effects on coral reef fish populations of increased CO2 concentrations in the water and associated acidification are as yet poorly understood. There are potential threats to recruitment, with eggs and larval fish likely to be vulnerable to both CO2 and low pH levels, although known lethal levels of CO2 are outside the range through to 2100.36 A more likely scenario is the impact of pH, both on eggs and larvae and on their planktonic food sources, reducing survival rates. Acidification may also constrain growth rates, which in turn may affect fertility or possibly cause sub-lethal physiological effects.37

30. Wilkinson, 2008.31. Graham et al., 2006.32. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007.33. Kleypas et al., 1999.34. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2005.35. e.g. Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999.36. Kita et al., 2014.37. Fosså et al., Nd.

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Socio-economic sensitivityThe largely coral reef-based, small-scale coastal and banks fisheries contribute between 1 and 2 percent to national gross domestic product (GDP). National per capita fish consumption is estimated at 55 to 75 kg per annum38 and much of this is derived from the coral reef-based fisheries, which make an important contribution to food security. The Seychelles economy also benefits from the generation of foreign currency through the export of an average 7.5 percent (for the years 2000 to 2009) of the small-scale fishery catch39. The ASCLME Project (2010) quoting 2002 data from the Ministry of Information Technology and Communication (Management and Information Systems Division, MISD) stated that 10 percent of households in Seychelles are “to some extent dependent on small-scale fisheries, which provide livelihoods to 11 percent of the population”.

UNDP (2006) reported that “demersal and reef resources targeted by line and trap fisheries are locally overexploited, especially around the main granitic islands”. Although more recent work40 indicated that yields from Siganidae at least may be sustainable, a retrospective stock assessment of the important emperor Lutjanus sebae (1977 to 2006), which alone contributed 16.7 percent of the total catch (1998 to 2011), with a peak yield of more than 1 200 tonnes (29.5 percent of total catch) in 2007 was less optimistic.41 The assessment found that for the majority of the years in question “fishing mortality rates and spawner-biomass-per-recruit approximated to the limit reference point of F30 percent”. And that in 2004, for example, 67.5 percent of the catch was made up of fish smaller than the mean size at first sexual maturity.

Grandcourt and Cesar (2003) reported on the net income of Seychelles’ principal reef fisheries gears before and after the 1998 bleaching event. The remarkable feature of these data is the dramatic decline in the net income per unit effort for the demersal handline fishery. However, analyses revealed that the decrease in net income per fisher, per trip in the demersal handline fishery was not as a result of the 1998 bleaching event. The authors went on to observe that, in fact, some components of the inner island fishery of Seychelles were facing severe constraints, not only as a result of a reduced resource base, but also because of increasing costs associated with inflation and they argued that “participants will be running at an overall loss in the immediate future. These results corroborate predictions that if fishing continues at the current level around the central granitic islands it will not be cost effective or sustainable”.42 Based on size spectra analysis of the coral reef fishery target species, Graham et al. (2007) predicted that there would be a recruitment failure in the fishery.

Adaptive capacitySeychelles has benefited from research into the adaptive capacity of coastal communities. The mean adaptive capacity score for Seychelles was 0.50 (SD = 0.03), a similar score to that reported for Mauritius (0.45).43 The dominant components of adaptive capacity among the sampled Seychellois coastal households (N = 243) were material assets and infrastructure.

In fact, Grandcourt and Cesar (2003) suggested that fishers may have already begun to adapt, even if this was not likely to be specifically as a result of climate change. Of course, “high” adaptive capacity does not imply that it is necessarily high enough to allow fishers to move away from the commercial fishery. And, in fact, there are several issues to consider. For example Daw et al. (2012) found a distinct unwillingness among a sample of fishers in Seychelles to leave the fishery (to adapt), even if relative catch declined by 50 percent.

In addition to the recommendations available from the outputs of coral reef ecosystem (and marine protected area, MPA) research taking place globally, there are also a number of quite detailed recommendations available to decision-makers in Seychelles regarding opportunities to build resilience in coral reef ecosystems. The recommendations are the result of the high level of coral reef ecosystem research that Seychelles has enjoyed over recent decades. For instance, Graham et al. (2007) propose that the reefs north of Praslin

38. ASCLME Project, 2010; Government of Seychelles, 2011.39. Seychelles Fishing Authority (SFA), 2012.40. e.g. Robinson et al., 2011.41. Grandcourt et al., 2008.42. Grandcout & Cesar, 2003, p. 548.43. McClanahan et al., 2009; Cinner et al., 2011.

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and south of Mahé, and granitic habitats would be suitable locations for future MPAs. But, they go on to argue that areas of coral reef ecosystems outside MPAs should be managed to minimize other stressors, notably overfishing and nutrient enrichment, so that sufficient stocks are available for replenishment.

Seychelles has the second highest per capita GDP in the African region and ranked 50th in 2007 on the UNDP Human Development Index, with high investments in education, health, housing and the environment.44 Seychelles also possesses a vibrant tourism sector, which contributed more than 25 percent of GDP in 201045 and has enjoyed continued rapid growth since at least 2008, with an 84 percent growth in hotel and restaurant sector employment. There has been a 50 percent growth in the private sector overall.46 Although Seychelles has a high level of public debt and a vulnerability to external economic shocks, there are encouraging signs for the potential adaptive capacity within the fisheries sector if appropriate training can be delivered and fishers either moved out of the sector entirely or provided with opportunities to adapt aspects of their existing skill set, while remaining in the fishery sector.

GhanaGhana’s oceanography is dominated by the Guinea Current, which flows east in a band at approximately 2 °N along the coast and has a mean velocity of 0.5 m s-1 and a maximum velocity of 0.7 m s-1.47 The Guinea Current is primarily an extension of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) (Figure 4).

The principle atmospheric features that dominate climate outcomes are the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the associated development of the West African Monsoon (WAM). The northerly passage of the ITCZ from approximately March to July delivers the main wet season, while the returning southerly passage, from September to November, drives a shorter wet season.48

The Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem (GCLME), in which Ghana’s ocean is included, is ranked among the most productive coastal and offshore waters in the world, with rich fish resources.49

44. The Seychelles National Climate Change Committee, 2009.45. ASCLME Project, 2010.46. National Bureau of Statistics, op cit.47. Djakouré et al., 2014.48. McSweeney et al., 2010.49. Ukwe et al., 2006.

Figure 4: The major currents of the Gulf of Guinea (source: adapted from Ukwe et al., 2006; Toualy et al., 2012; Djakouré et al., 2014)

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Approximately 850 marine species have been recorded, including 745 fish species50 and a large assemblage of algal species.51 High productivity is largely the result of upwelling which occurs during two periods: a period of major upwelling for approximately three months, from late June, and a minor upwelling during winter, from January through March.52 The zonal (east–west) alignment of the coast makes the presence of this upwelling somewhat unusual and although its drivers are complex and not well understood, they may include a) seasonally diverging currents; b) the vertical motion of coastal cyclonic eddies; c) Ekman pumping caused by windstress curl; and d) the effect of oceanic Kelvin waves.53

Minta (2003), citing Binet (1997), reported on the apparent relationship between sardinella catches and along-shore windstress. Minta noted however, that the timing of any increased (or reduced) windstress associated with climate change was crucial because offshore advection increased larval mortality. There was no evidence available to suggest that windstress is likely to increase as a result of climate change processes.

Mensah (1991) identified some approximate correlations indicating that the nutrient-rich sediment discharge resulting from the dominant pattern of rains just prior to the upwelling, in part at least, contributes to the degree of biological production during the upwelling itself. The IPCC54 analysis suggests a mean decline in rainfall over Ghana for the period 1951 to 2010, while McSweeney et al. (2010) reported a decrease in the period 1960 to 2006 at an average of 2.3 mm per month (2.4 percent) per decade. The climate of Ghana is also influenced by African easterly waves (AEWs), which can trigger the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic55 and there are atmospheric teleconnections between North Africa and the Indian Monsoon.56 Similarly, the even more distant ENSO events in the Pacific Ocean can lead to reduced rainfall across West Africa.57 A further complication is the role of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) − a phenomenon of changes in SST in the North Atlantic, which is itself linked to atmospheric temperature and freshwater influx that can increase rainfall over West Africa. The IPCC observes that “the ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify”. The characteristics of the Indian Monsoon are also expected to alter, with the IPCC reporting that its extent and duration are likely to increase, therefore there may be impacts on West Africa through teleconnections. For the WAM itself, the IPCC (WGI AR5, 2013) stated that “There is low confidence in projections of a small delay in the West African rainy season, with an intensification of late-season rains”.

Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5)Historically, there has been significant variability in SST in the Gulf of Guinea region, with varying periodicity. For example, there was a pronounced cooling period in the early 1980s, following by a significant warming period from 1987 to 1990; these warming periods coincided with weaker scores in the annual upwelling index.58 There is some evidence that shorter-term regional SST fluctuations are quasi-cyclical, perhaps over a period of approximately two to four years59 and are at least in part linked to ENSO events in the tropical Pacific Ocean.60 There is also evidence to suggest that recent warming of the North Atlantic is linked to a warm phase of the (natural) AMO, in addition to any forcing from climate change. In fact, as the AMO moves into an anticipated cooler phase, it is “likely to influence regional climates at least as strongly as will human-induced changes”.61

50. FAO, 1994.51. Nunoo & Ameka, 2005.52. Bakun, 1978; Djakouré et al., 2014.53. Djakouré et al., op cit.54. Niang et al., 2014.55. Thorncroft, 2013.56. Janicot et al., 2009.57. Perry & Sumaila, 2006; McSweeney et al., 2010.58. Minta, 2003.59. Dontwi et al., 2008.60. e.g. Toualy et al., 2012, citing Hardman-Mountford & McGlade, 2003; Perry & Sumaila, 2006; Toualy et al., 2012.61. IPCC/WGI, 2013.

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Wiafe et al. (2008) determined that 82 percent (p < 0.001) of the total variance in zooplankton biomass data for the period 1969 to 1992 was accounted for by SST, suggesting that the predicted reduction in mean rainfall may have only local effects on primary production, in nearshore areas. The authors also observed that “A month’s lag exists between the peaks of Sardinella larval abundance and total zooplankton biomass, suggesting a ‘match’ between the predators and larval food and, hence, the potential for a climate change induced “mismatch” to compromise recruitment in S. aurita stocks”. More specifically, Wiafe et al. (op cit.) demonstrated a reduction in the copepod Calinoides carinatus with respect to the sea surface warming.

Dontwi (2008) developed some simple models, including SST and precipitation, to understand drivers of small pelagic stock size and catchability. For E. encrasicolus (anchovy) Dontwi determined that (reduced) SST was the more important driver of (increased) stock size. On the other hand, for S. aurita (round sardinella) higher SST led to larger stock size. Data for S. maderensis (flat sardinella) were interpreted as indicating relative insensitivity to SST.

Socio-economic sensitivityFishers in Ghana operate in the context of a highly variable annual biomass, as evidenced by the results of acoustic surveys in the Gulf of Guinea conducted by the R/V Dr Fridtjof Nansen62 and annual fluctuations in the total landings of the important sardinella group. In addition to natural interannual variation that affects fisheries livelihoods and economies, fishers of small pelagic species also operate in a highly seasonal context.

Against the background of this natural variability, FAO (2013) observed that “In general, catches of the western stock for Sardinella aurita have shown a declining state since 2004”. Not surprisingly, therefore, analysis by the Fishery Committee for the Eastern Central Atlantic (CECAF) scientific committee suggests that the western stock of S. aurita is overexploited, while the western stock of S. maderensis is fully exploited. The western stock of S. encrasicolus is also believed to be fully exploited (Fcur/F0.1 = 0.89).63

Small pelagic fisheries are significant components of the coastal fisheries in Ghana and support an estimated 210 000 fishers based at 344 landing centres along the coast. Fisheries contribute 60 percent of total annual per capita animal protein intake in Ghana with an estimated 85 percent of Ghana’s total fish production contributed by marine fisheries.64 In addition to those that are directly employed in marine fisheries, ten times that number are employed in associated economic activities, including boat building, trade in fuel and fishing gears, post-harvest processing and trade in fish. Total annual domestic fish production in Ghana for 2012 was estimated at 456 148 tonnes, with exports of 62 984 tonnes valued at USD209 million.65 Despite this substantial production volume, there is an annual deficit of fish supply of approximately 450 000 tonnes, of which only about half is met through imports.66

Data from two major fishing centres, at Ahwiam (Western Region) and Elmina (Greater Accra), indicate that fisheries were the main occupation for 93.3 and 90 percent of respondents, respectively, and they provide 80 and 85 percent of fishers’ overall income in Ahwiam and Elmina respectively. Just 6 percent and 10 percent of respondents at these two sites reported being engaged in alternative livelihoods.67 Looking at the wider social-ecological system of small pelagic fisheries in Ghana, Asiedu et al. (2013) interviewed respondents on their perceived sources of vulnerability. The scope of vulnerabilities included conflict, the weather, lack of infrastructure, etc. The three principal vulnerabilities, measured as intensity, at the two coastal sites of Ahwiam and Elmina were education and capacity, fish stocks and the availability of finance and income streams.

Given the role of small pelagic fish in contributing to food security, employment and social welfare, the sensitivity of fisher communities (and wider Ghanaian society) to significant changes in production is clear. In a wide-ranging analysis across West Africa, assessing the potential impact of two climate

62. FAO, 2013.63. FAO, op cit.64. MOFA, 2010; Asiedu & Nunoo, 2013.65. MOFA, 2012.66. MOFA, 2010.67. Asiedu & Nunoo, 2013.

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change scenarios, Lam and her colleagues (2012) projected significant, if not quasi-catastrophic climate change impacts. While it is important to acknowledge that the primary production data and estimated climate change effect parameters that drive the outputs are being applied in a highly complex and variable environment − and to species for which detailed knowledge is relatively scarce − it is however a useful point of departure. For Ghana, a reduction in landings of 41 percent (as measured against average levels in the 2000s) was predicted by 2050 for a low-range green house gas (GHG) emission scenario. For a high-range scenario (the Special Report Emissions Scenarios SRES A1B model), the reduction in landings was projected to be in the order of 55 percent. The reduction for Ghana under the low-range model was the most significant of all 14 countries included in the analysis. Given the strong reliance on fish for the supply of dietary protein in Ghana this would result in a 4.5 to 6.0 percent reduction in protein supply under the low-range emission model and 6 to 8 percent under the SRES A1B high-range emissions scenario. The implications for employment are significant, with projections of a loss of approximately 37 percent and 52 percent in fisheries-related jobs (relative to mean employment numbers during the 2000s) for the two emissions scenarios, respectively.

Evidence of adaptive capacityThe ecological component of the social-ecological system on which the fisheries are built, is dynamic and variable, with important within-year and interannual cycles of production; stocks themselves are migratory and together these features demand that fishers adopt flexible livelihood strategies, including fisher migrations, in order to operate profitably.

There appear to be relatively few contemporary data available on the precise numbers of fishers who migrate, where they move and for how long, and their interactions with the domestic fisheries systems to which they migrate. Fregene (2007) reported figures for Nigeria indicating that there were approximately “…300 000 coastal migrant fishermen, mostly Ghanaians”, although this figure perhaps should be treated with caution as it appears to exceed the total number (about 210 000) of Ghanaians fishing in Ghana itself. Jentoft and Eide (2011) argued that the high mobility of Ghanaian fishers was not only in response to the migration of fish stocks, but also the result of coastal erosion, local population pressures and overfishing. Migration also affords an opportunity to earn revenue in the stronger currencies of neighbouring countries during periods of economic downturn in Ghana itself.

Declines in the catch of small pelagic species and presumed improvements in fishing technology, appear to have prompted a trend towards an increase in the fishing power of vessels targeting small pelagic fish, particularly for APW (Ali-Poli-Watsa) gear deployed by both the semi-industrial and the artisanal fleets. In particular, those using Watsa gear are increasingly using lights at night, powered by small onboard generators, to increase their fishing success and extend the season for targeting small pelagic species. Recent interview-based research in the western region of the country, for example, indicated that the number of Watsa fishers using lights to improve their fishing success has increased from less than 10 percent in 2002 to more than 90 percent in 2010.68

More generally, Tietze et al. (2011) reported that “Fishers in the artisanal and semi-industrial sectors do not have the requisite skills to move into other sectors”, in part because of low levels of literacy and other skills. Asiedu and Nunoo (2013) questioned whether, even if the capacity of existing fishers was increased, alternative job opportunities actually exist in sufficient numbers in coastal Ghana to have a significant impact on current and future overcapacity in coastal fisheries. And, there is a large pool of potential new (replacement) entrants to the coastal fishery arriving from the drought-affected interior69 which will be difficult to manage. However, the willingness of fishers to change livelihoods was reported to be very high; 100 percent of respondents in the major fishing centre of Ahwiam, and 93 percent in Elmina, wished to change their source of livelihoods.

68. Finegold et al., 2010.69. Perry & Sumaila, 2006.

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In fashioning strategies, proponents should recognize places where climate change could benefit local fisheries and places where climate change may have a negative impact70. Conservation strategies such as allowing the use of fishing nets of an approved mesh size or designating no take zones will play a major role in adaptation and help to reduce overfishing.71 For instance, the EAF-Nansen Project, in search of a management solution to the degradation of fish stocks by beach seine gear, has concentrated on the enforcement of larger mesh sizes, as required by law.

The government of Ghana has developed management plans and is addressing critical socio-economic issues pertaining to fisheries and fishers. For example, premix fuel for outboard motors has been subsidized; storage facilities for fish have been built close to fishing communities; micro-finance resources have been made available, etc. Unfortunately, there is no documented success story related to the management of small pelagic fisheries in Ghana. Kraan (2009), for example, reports on the failure of the implementation of an alternative livelihood programme in Ghana under the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID)-funded Sustainable Fisheries Livelihoods Project.

There are two key contextual problems that constrain actors and affect the ability to implement policy. The first is that Ghana’s artisanal fisheries are unable to supply enough to meet demand and to match prices of imported fish. The second is that given the livelihood options and low income levels of artisanal fishers, and the livelihoods of those dependent on the processing and trading of coastal-caught fish, hundreds of thousands of mostly poor people are locked into a process that gives them perverse incentives to fish (with many using subsidized fuel) when stocks are collapsing and unsustainable.

SenegalSenegal extends from 12° to 17 °N, and from 11° to 18 °W. Oriented north–south, its coastline is approximately 700 km long. The continental shelf is 23 092 km2 and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) 158 861 km2. The Canary Current is the main feature of the so-called Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), of which Senegal is part (Figure 5). The Canary Current is considered to be a Class 1 ecosystem, corresponding to the highest level of productivity. Its total primary production is more than 300gCm-2y-1.72

The major driver of the high levels of productivity is a process of wind-driven upwelling. There are two principal wind patterns in Senegal, associated with the relative position of the ITCZ. During the winter/spring months (December to May), the wind is predominantly from the northeast and drives upwelling; during the summer months (June to August) the wind is predominantly from the southwest and drives downwelling processes. In the north of Senegal, upwelling is year-round.

70. Badjeck et al., 2010.71. Grafton, 2010.72. Sherman & Hempel, 2009.

Figure 5: Major ocean currents off West Africa (source: redrawn from Arístegui et al., 2009)

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The cool and nutrient-rich upwelled waters along the coastal shelf edge are a consequence of longshore wind forcing (Ekman transport). An important feature of the Canary Current system is that the upwelling takes place relatively far from the coast owing to the width of the continental shelf. The result is that there is relatively little movement of water masses perpendicular to the coast (cross-shore) compared to other eastern boundary upwelling systems. The importance of this for ecosystem production is that the system has relatively high rates of retention of nutrients in the coastal area because they are not advected offshore by the upwelling cell. The relatively shallow continental shelf also means that nutrients are not lost from the system by sinking into the abyss.73

The strength and position of the wind depends on the latitudinal migration of the ITCZ and the associated Azores high pressure area, both oscillating between their northernmost and southernmost positions in summer and winter respectively. Cropper et al. (2014) presented evidence that may support the realization of the so-called “Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis” off Northwest Africa. However, the windstress indices for the Mauritania-Senegalese zone actually showed a decreasing trend (although it was significant for only one of the indices) during the winter upwelling period, but with an increase in downwelling-favourable winds south of 19 °N during the summer. The IPCC (2014, chapter 30) highlights the challenges of determining any sort of trend given the often contradictory nature of available data and analyses. For example, the panel cites Gómez-Gesteira et al. (2008), who found a 20 percent (winter) and 45 percent (summer) decrease in the strength of upwelling for the Canary Current as a whole over the period 1967 to 2006, as a result of decreasing wind speed. On the other hand, the IPCC reports the work of Barton et al. (2013), which did not indicate any clear trend in wind strength over the past 60 years.

There are, however, also variable but non-GHG emission-related background atmospheric processes that can drive windstress variability. For example, the NAO explained as much as 53 percent of the variability of windstress delivered by northeasterly trade winds off Mauritania, to the north of Senegal.74 Given the cause-effect relationship between wind and upwelling, a positive NAO (NAO+) is also likely to explain a high percentage of upwelling variability in the region. During NAO+ phases (e.g. 1990 to 2000) upwelling was more intense and more widely extended along the coast of Northwest Africa.

There are several major river systems along the Senegalese coast and the Casamance, Senegal and Gambia rivers are important contributors of terrigenous nutrients that further enhance ocean productivity. Available data indicate a very high interannual variability, but a general decreasing trend in rainfall in Senegal since 195075 (although at a single weather station, interannual variation may be hundreds of millimetres). There was a partial recovery in the 1990s but between 2000 and 2009, the recovery slowed down and the 2000 to 2009 mean remained about 15 percent lower than the 1920 to 1969 mean. The IPCC WGI AR5 (2013) stated that “There is low confidence in projections of a small delay in the West African rainy season, with an intensification of late-season rains”.

In terms of SST, the IPCC,76 reporting the work of various authors, states that the Canary Current in its entirety has shown a warming trend since the 1980s (0.09°C decade-1, p-value<0.05) and goes on to provide a mechanism that could drive such warming, i.e. a mean decrease in wind speed (windstress) in the region. However, the evidence of an apparent decrease in wind speed is acknowledged in the same IPCC report as being contradicted by other, apparently equally plausible, analyses. There are also important subregional variations. For example, a closer look at an analysis completed by Arístegui et al. – research that was also cited by IPCC as evidence for a general warming trend in the Canary Current – reveals distinct regional differences in the SST trend, particularly at the southern extreme of the current system. In the waters off Senegal, for instance, cooling was observed, albeit using a relatively short time series of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data from 1998 to 2007.

73. Lachkar & Gruber, 2012.74. Meiners et al., 2010.75. Thiao, 2009.76. IPCC, 2014 (chapter 30).

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The IPCC77 reports that there is “medium evidence and medium agreement that primary production in the Canary Current has decreased over the past two decades”, but the picture is complex and characterized by huge local variations. Sherman and Hempel (2009), reporting on data from the period 1998 to 2006, indicated chlorophyll-a concentrations were declining at an average of 0.0139 mg/m3 per year along the Canary Current as a whole. A more nuanced regional analysis by Arístegui et al. (2009) suggested important regional variations, with significant increases off coastal Mauritania but significant decreases off coastal Senegal.

Acidification is expected to play an important role in determining future plankton productivity. Citing the work of Barton et al. (2012), the IPCC notes that eastern boundary upwelling systems such as found off Northwest Africa are typically low in pH, and have relatively high concentrations of CO2 which increases their vulnerability to acidification. However, modelling by Lachkar and Gruber (2012) suggests that the Canary Current may be less sensitive to acidification than appears to be the case in the California upwelling system, for example. Nevertheless, they find that continued emissions of atmospheric CO2 will increase the volume of undersaturated water in the Canary system from current levels of about 5 to 25 percent by 2050 as atmospheric CO2 levels increase to about 540 ppm. This will “lead to substantial habitat compression for CO2-sensitive species in both systems, particularly organisms that use CaCO3 to build mineral structures”.78

Socio-economic sensitivity/adaptive capacityFisheries resources are an important part of Senegal’s economy and food security, with fish protein contributing 80 percent of total animal protein consumed by the coastal population.79 Small pelagic species are mainly exploited by artisanal fisheries, using a range of purse seines and gillnets. With annual total landings of around 450 000 tonnes in recent years, the artisanal fisheries are responsible for more than 80 percent of total fisheries production in Senegal.80 The country has the highest level of fish consumption in West Africa, with a mean annual per capita consumption of approximately 25.9 kg/person/year.81 Only about 15 percent, or approximately 45 000 tonnes of the landings of small pelagic species are exported. In the interior of the country, small pelagic fish are almost the only type of fish available and are marketed fresh (transported by refrigerated trucks) and in dried and smoked form.

There is a substantial degree of cross-border fishing activity, with Senegalese fishers operating in Mauritanian waters to the north of Senegal. However, much of their catch is landed in Senegal, at the port of Saint-Louis. The production of the small pelagic fisheries is essentially dominated by two sardinella species, the round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) and Madeiran sardinella (Sardinella maderensis).

In terms of total landings, S. aurita is the dominant species; landings for this species were characterized by a rapid increase during the 1980s, before experiencing a downward trend in the 1990s with the lowest catch of 83 000 tonnes recorded in 1999. Since 2001 a reversal of this trend has been noted, with the highest catch of S. aurita (263 594 tonnes) recorded in 2009.82 This recent increase is believed to be the result of a bilateral agreement between Senegal and Mauritania, which annually grants about 300 fishing licenses. For S. maderensis, the landings showed an upward trend that reached its highest level in 2003 with 164 469 tonnes. Since then, the landings have generally decreased. The two species of S. aurita and S. maderensis constitute approximately 47 percent and 20 percent of the total artisanal fisheries production, respectively. Ethmalosa fimbriata is the third most important small pelagic species. A record catch of 24 471 tonnes was achieved in 2001, but production of this species has seen a significant downward trend over the past decade.

Under the auspices of the FAO’s CECAF working group, a stock assessment was carried out for S. aurita in the Morocco−Senegal subregion and the most recent output is presented in Table 1.

77. IPCC, 2013.78. Lachkar & Gruber, 2012, p. 8.79. Failler & Lecrivain 2003..80. FAO, 2013.81. Lam et al., 2012.82. FAO, op cit.

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Table 1: Results of FAO working group on small pelagic fish (source: FAO, 2013)

Stock / indicator of Biomass Bcur/B0.1 Bcur/BMSY Fcur/FMSYyr Fcur/FMSY Fcur/F0.1

S. aurita / CPUE EU Fleet 53% 58% 228% 323% 359%

Current biomass is just 58 percent of the estimated biomass required to produce a sustainable yield. Current fishing mortality is estimated to be more than three times the optimal limit for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The assessment also indicated that the strong year classes of 2002 and 2007 were largely fished out within two years – such is the level of fishing effort and fishing mortality. The clear implication is that weak year-classes will not be able to sustain the fishery.

Small pelagic fisheries in Senegal are extremely important in terms of employment. According to the most recent artisanal fisheries census the highest average crew (16.1 permanent fishers/vessel) is recorded aboard artisanal purse seiners that specifically target small pelagic fish.83 It has been estimated that approximately 60 000 artisanal fishers operate in Senegal, with 20 percent (about 12 000) being engaged exclusively in small pelagic fisheries. In addition to direct employment, pelagic fisheries also provide an estimated 40 000 additional jobs in the post-harvest industry. There are believed to be about 7 000 women working in fish processing and trading and their income typically plays a crucial role in household budgets.

The 2006 artisanal fisheries frame survey reported that only 34 percent of fishers had any formal education.84 Among those who attended school, less than 13 percent pursued their studies beyond primary school. Consequently, small-scale fisheries provide significant employment opportunities for the least well educated, and often the poorest people of Senegal. The relatively low level of skill required to work as a member of a beach-seine team, for example, allows for easy mobility from other sectors, for example by farmers for whom agriculture is no longer profitable. However, the fisheries sector makes significant physical demands on participants, many of whom start fishing at a young age. An International Labour Organization (ILO)-commissioned study found that the average age of children entering the fishing sector was 10.6 years85 and that fishers tend to retire at 40 to 50 years of age because they are physically unable to continue. Such a situation further reduces fisher mobility out of the sector.

Senegal has high levels of poverty. Low purchasing power encourages people to buy small pelagic fish because they are the cheapest and most accessible source of protein available to them. Therefore, Senegal’s food security would appear to be very sensitive to changes in the availability of these species, whether driven by climate change, overfishing or as a result of natural variability. The decrease of fish availability on the national markets, with the associated rise in prices, is currently a major concern.

Good governance is essential to support effective climate change adaptation.86 Governance includes political stability, institutional frameworks, legislation and enforcement, regulations and adaptation strategies. However, in Senegal, all the fisheries sector public institutions are facing operational constraints, including a lack of finance and a lack of technical staff and equipment, while the non-state actors involved in fisheries governance – including fisheries organizations that act at national and local levels – do not always have a clear vision regarding the challenges facing the sector, including those associated with climate change. Women make up only approximately 5 percent of the membership of fisheries-related management institutions nationally.

Although the Government of Senegal has initiated the formation of local fisheries councils and has been working closely with some international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and donors, their interventions have had limited success. The current Fisheries Code is outdated and the evidence of overfishing (although acknowledging the difficulties of managing such a naturally dynamic fishery and resource base) suggests the Code has not succeeded in delivering on its main objective of sustainable fisheries. Attempts to update the Code, not least to include a reference to climate change, have been stalled for five years.

83. Thiao et al., 2006.84. Thiao et al., op cit.85. Thiao et al., 2012.86. Glantz, 1992; Allison et al., 2009; Fluharty, 2011.

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Serious socio-economic and managerial constraints have to be overcome by the Senegalese government in their attempts to reduce fishing pressure, but recent attempts have met with limited success. For example, a fishing permit system for the artisanal sector has been in existence since 2006, but remains difficult to implement.87 There is essentially no implementation of, or voluntary compliance with, regulations on minimum size limits or minimum mesh sizes.

Small pelagic fish populations off Northwest Africa are shared by different countries. Thus, beyond the local and national level, regional management measures and strategies are necessary to mitigate the negative effects of overfishing and climate change on small pelagic fisheries. No concrete action has yet been taken to implement the management recommendations that have been made by different FAO/CECAF working groups. Nationally, the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Affairs, scientists and professional organizations need to be better sensitized and trained to assess and monitor climate change impacts and integrate them into fisheries management policies and adaptation strategies.

Specific actions also have to be undertaken for the benefit of coastal communities whose livelihoods are strictly dependent on small pelagic fisheries, although some coastal communities are traditionally so intricately linked to aquatic resources that alternative livelihood options are believed to be very limited.88 The lack of funds (and their sustainability) is one of the major constraints to developing alternative/additional livelihood programmes. In order to overcome this problem, the World Bank West Africa Fisheries Project (WARFP) is piloting an alternative livelihoods and poverty reduction programme using a “Reconversion Fund”. It aims to provide financial support to fishers in 12 localities so that they may leave the fishery sector and develop livelihoods in other sectors. The success of this initiative has yet to be evaluated.

3. Overall conclusionsThere are significant gaps in current understanding of the socio-ecological systems of the four case study fisheries. These pertain particularly to interactions between system elements, although Seychelles and to a degree Senegal (and the CCLME region) have a stronger knowledge base than Tanzania or Ghana. However, as far as climate science, oceanography and marine ecology is concerned, this reflects a global challenge and the words of Professor Andrew Bakun are useful in this context. When referring to natural climate systems and their variability, Bakun says “… (despite) decades of effort, an adequate understanding of the linkages of climate to fish population dynamics continues to largely elude us”.89

Even though understanding of complex natural systems is inevitably imperfect, a number of complex mechanisms have been identified, or are proposed, through which increased concentration of GHGs might go on to change the characteristics of these systems, through climate change. And these changes are likely to be in atmospheric processes and phenomena (e.g. the extent of monsoonal phenomena, in wind regimes and the amount and timing of precipitation); in oceanographic processes (e.g. modifications of ocean current velocities, of ocean stratification, of upwelling/downwelling phenomena and changes in SST profiles); and through changes to ocean chemistry (e.g. acidification, salinity).

Differentiating the effects of climate change from short-term natural variability, longer-term atmospheric and oceanographic cycles and from the impact(s) of decades of fishing pressure is usually complicated, especially because many of the potential changes relate to reinforcing or increasing (or even in some cases dampening) natural climate variability and the variability of ecosystem features.

To date, the evidence for specific climate change effects on the three small pelagic case study fisheries is somewhat equivocal. In Senegal (and the CCLME region in general) – arguably the best equipped of the three countries in which case studies on small pelagic fisheries have been conducted, at least in terms of information on the oceanography and ecology of the region – some trends are apparent in primary productivity, SST profiles and certain stock distributions, but these have not yet been unequivocally

87. Thiao et al., op cit.88. Thiao, Dème & Bailleux, 2012.89. Bakun, 2010.

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attributed to the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions.90 It is even possible that climate change may increase the upwelling index off Northwest Africa. The degree and potential impact of acidification remains unclear at the present time.

For the Seychelles, the situation is perhaps less equivocal. The coral reef ecosystems have recently been negatively affected by a number of pulses of high SST, notably in 1998 and 2005, causing the expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae, the subsequent mortality of corals and the loss of coral reef structures. SST anomalies are, of course, features of the natural variability of oceans and are primarily caused by ENSO events in the Pacific Ocean. The IPCC has only “low confidence in the current understanding of how (or if) climate change will influence the behaviour of ENSO and other long-term climate patterns”,91 but nevertheless, the overall perspective is for an increase in the frequency and intensity of bleaching events, with concomitant effects on the productivity of Seychellois fisheries. Ocean acidification is likely to increase the sensitivity of these reefs to SST anomalies and have direct effects on their capacity to regenerate.

For all the case studies, fisheries are highly significant at the national level for employment, wealth generation and food security, but the flow of these ecosystem services is already subject to system variability, particularly within the small pelagic fisheries. There is a dearth of knowledge on how fishers adapt to these natural variations in productivity, although migration (across different scales) plays a key role, as does the application of new fishing technology. Climate change-driven increases in system variability, and outright damage caused by acidification, will likely have important social impacts on top of the challenges already faced by these fisheries. However, as economic and food security pressure continues to build and opportunities in other sectors or other fisheries shrink, there is a significant imperative that sustainable solutions be identified and the political will is found to implement them.

4. Recommendations1. There is a need for improved understanding of how, and to what extent, fishers (particularly those in

the highly dynamic small pelagic fisheries) are able to adapt their livelihoods to absorb seasonal and interannual variations in yield. For example, what other fisheries might they target? Is there participation in agriculture? Is there a savings tradition that allows households to survive the lean months? The value of this kind of knowledge is in its ability to determine the extent to which these adaptations have the potential to absorb further perturbations and variability caused by climate change. Certainly, current adaptations such as migration and increasing fishing power are no longer valid. There also needs to be a stratification of the knowledge generating process because participants in the sector are by no means identical. Some are vessel and net owners who may or may not actually venture out to sea, others are experienced fishers who are sought out as vessel skippers, while yet others are crew (labourers) who may drift in and out of the sector. Fish processors and traders, chandlers, boat builders, etc., also play key roles in fisheries and their livelihoods may be equally vulnerable to shocks. Therefore, they too must be included in the knowledge generating process.

2. The concept of alternative livelihoods, of de-coupling local economies from natural resource dependence, is a familiar one in the fisheries sector. However, there are precious few examples of the successful application of this concept. While it might be more feasible in the context of a relatively small fishery such as is the case in Seychelles, the provision of alternative livelihoods to tens of thousands of fishers in a developing country context is a major challenge. And this challenge is complicated by the need to ensure that those fishers who leave a particular fishery, or the entire sector, are not simply replaced by new entrants. While there are no panaceas, the alternative livelihood approach must take a multi-sector perspective, engaging expertise from outside fisheries to explore and identify opportunities. Such an approach is rarely taken and alternative livelihood programmes are often naïve and parochial.

3. A much talked about alternative, and one that also addresses the critical issue of food security (which may be threatened at least in the short-term by changes in management regimes) is aquaculture,

90. Arístegui et al., 2009; Henson et al., 2010.91. IPCC, 2014.

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specifically mariculture. Aquaculture presents important opportunities and there is an urgent need for this growing sector to be better protected from the impacts of climate change.

4. Even though they are diminishing in number, where new fisheries are deemed to have the potential to absorb excess fishing capacity, effective controls must be established from the outset, and implemented effectively.

5. In a perfect world, fisheries management systems − particularly for the dynamic small pelagic fisheries − would be redesigned in such a way that fishing pressure could be adjusted to accommodate variability in productivity. Clearly this is easier said than done, given the relative level of capitalization of even the small-scale artisanal fleets. However, such a flexible management system represents a logical means to adapt to the impact of climate change. It should be acknowledged that such an approach would come with a price tag, notably for trying to determine annual variations in productivity, although the tools are already available to provide this information. In coral reef systems, where interannual variability tends to be less important, the same issues of overcapacity are still to be dealt with. MPAs are regarded as a key tool for sustaining local ecosystem diversity and productivity. Although they are by no means a panacea, investment in their implementation must be improved and the implications of effective implementation (in terms of lost opportunities for fishers, supply of fish, etc.) must be honestly addressed.

6. Globally, fishing pressure and habitat degradation caused by pollution, dramatically reduce the ability of ecosystems to adapt to climate change. However, many national fisheries institutions, albeit with some notable exceptions, demonstrably lack sufficient human and financial resources (and in some cases legal instruments) to achieve many of their statutory obligations towards artisanal fishers and their communities. They are failing institutions. This situation has persisted for decades and, at the risk of stating the obvious, requires a substantial infusion of political will and financial and technical support if it is to be addressed. Such an effort should ideally be provided by the national governments themselves.

5. Limitations of the studyIn order to undertake the sort of vulnerability assessment required for these fisheries it is necessary to process, integrate and synthesize a vast body of technical knowledge on social-ecological systems. This knowledge, particularly that which relates to the ecological domain, is generated over a range of temporal and geographical scales, in different languages and across a number of disciplines – from plankton physiology to atmospheric physics – and it is constantly being updated, refined and re-interpreted.

The approach taken for these case studies was to task individual authors to undertake literature reviews, without the resources for consultation or validation through workshops or Delphi processes, for example. This inevitably reduces the value of the outputs. Further limits are placed on the value of outputs when one considers the importance of boundary interactions between different social-ecological systems and how shocks in one can affect the other. A good example is the migration of farmers facing drought conditions to the coast to seek opportunities in fishing. Politics and macroeconomics may also play a role in the behaviour of a system, often feeding through the social into the ecological component. A more complete assessment requires at least some expertise to be sourced from other sectors so as to better understand how climate change is impacting, or is projected to affect those sectors.

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Meiners, C., Fernández, L., Salmerón, F. & Ramos, A. 2010. Climate variability and fisheries of black hakes (M. polli and M. senegalensis) in NW Africa: a first approach. Journal of Marine Systems, 80: 243−247.

Minta, S. 2003. An assessment of the vulnerability of Ghana’s coastal artisanal fishery to climate change. University of Tromsø, Norway (M.Sc. Thesis).

MOFA. 2010. Medium term agriculture sector investment plan (METASIP) 2011−2015. Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana.

NBS. 2013. Seychelles in figures. Government of Seychelles, National Bureau of Statistics. 37 pp.

Niang, I., Ruppel, O.C., Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J. & Urquhart, P. 2014. Africa. In V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White, eds. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press. P. 1199−1265.

Nunoo F.K.E. & Ameka, G.K. 2005. Occurrence of macro-algae in the by-catch of beach seine fisheries at Sakumono, Ghana. West African Journal of Applied Ecology, 8: 79–87.

Obura, D., Suleiman, M., Motta, H. & Schleyer, M. 2000. Status of coral reefs in East Africa: Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. In C. Wilkinson, R.A. Payet, N. Soogun, E. Ranaivoson, R.J. Payet & F. Ali Abdallah, eds. Status of coral reefs of the world: 2000 (2004). Indian ocean Islands, GIWA regional assessment 45b. University of Kalmar, Kalmar, Sweden. UNEP.

Ommer, R.E., Jarre, A.C., Perry, R.I., Barange, M., Cochrane, K. & Moloney, C. 2013. Human dimensions of the fisheries under global change. In D.M. Checkley, J. Alheit, Y. Oozeki & C. Roy, eds. Climate Change and Small Pelagic Fish. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press.

Payet, R.A., Soogun, N., Ranaivoson, E., Payet, R.J & Ali Abdallah, F. 2004. Indian Ocean Islands. GIWA Regional assessment 45b. Kalmar, Sweden, University of Kalmar, and Nairobi, Kenya, United Nations Environment Programme.

Perry, R.I. & Sumaila, U.R. 2006. Marine ecosystem variability and human community responses: the example of Ghana, West Africa. Marine Policy, 31: 125−134.

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Robinson, J., Samoilys, M.A., Grandcourt, E., Julie, D., Cedras, M. & Gerry, C. 2011. The importance of targeted spawning aggregation fishing to the management of Seychelles’ trap fishery. Fisheries Research, 112(1): 96−103. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.08.015

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Seychelles National Climate Change Committee. 2009. Seychelles National Climate Change Strategy.

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Thiao, D.M., Dème, R., Bailleux, P., Failler, P. & Sall, A. 2012. Etude des liens entre pauvreté et exploitation des écosystèmes côtiers en Afrique de l’Ouest - Etude de cas au Senegal, au Cap Vert et en Guinée. Rapport final, UICN, 116 pp.

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Chapter 1

BaCkground

1

Chapter 1: Background

Contents ...............................................................................................................................................Page

1. Background ........................................................................................................................................ 3

1.1. The vulnerability assessment framework .................................................................................... 3

1.2.Definitionofterms ...................................................................................................................... 5

1.3.Oceanacidification ...................................................................................................................... 7

1.4. Ecology of small pelagic species................................................................................................. 8

2. References ........................................................................................................................................ 15

ListoffiguresFigure 1: Heuristic framework for linked social-ecological vulnerability ......................................... 3

Figure 2: Nested model of a vulnerability assessment ....................................................................... 4

Figure 3: Interactions between temporal and spatial scales ............................................................. 10

Figure 4: Time series of deposits of sardine and anchovy scales, SantaBarbaraBasin,PacificOcean ................................................................................. 10

Figure5: Pathwaysofclimatechangeinfluencesonanoceanecosystem ....................................... 11

Figure 6: Bakun’s predator pit function ........................................................................................... 14

List of tablesTable 1: California Current anchovy and sardine life histories by productivity regime ................. 14

2

1 Background

This report is the product of assessments of the apparent and potential impacts of climate change on fourcasestudycoastalfisheriesontheAfricancontinentandtheislandsofthewesternIndianOcean.TheresearchwascommissionedbytheNFFPandtheEAF-NansenProject.TheNFFPiscollatingandexploringevidenceforthecurrentandpotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonfisheriesinAfrica.Theoverall goal of this activity is to contribute to the design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these impacts, both on the ground at a local level and at the national and regional policy level.

ThecasestudieswereselectedaccordingtoasetofcriteriaidentifiedbytheNFFPandtheEAF-NansenProject.Thecriteriaincludedgeographicallocation(theGulfofGuinea,thecoastofNorthwestAfricaand the western Indian Ocean) and the inclusion of a small island developing state. The case studies are:

• thesmallpelagicfisheriesoftheUnitedRepublicofTanzania;

• thecoralreeffisheryoftheSeychelles;

• thesmallpelagicfisheriesofGhana;and

• thesmallpelagicfisheriesofSenegal.

TheWIOMSAwascontractedtocoordinatetheprocessanddevelopacommonmethodologyandtableof contents for the individual case study authors to follow.

Thereportconsistsoffivechapters.Thisfirstchapterintroducesthegeneralapproachandmethodologyusedtocompilethecasestudies.Italsoprovidesabriefoverviewofthephenomenonofoceanacidification–towhichallfourcasestudyfisheriesarevulnerable–andintroducessomeofthecommonecologicalaspectsofsmallpelagicfish,whicharethefocusofthreeofthefourcasestudies.Chapterstwotofivearethedetailedcasestudyreports.ChaptertwodealswiththesmallpelagicfisheriesofTanzania;chapterthreecoversthecoralreeffisheryofSeychelles;andchaptersfourandfivecoverthesmallpelagicfisheriesofGhanaandSenegalrespectively.Thefourcasestudieseachdescribethebasiccharacteristicsofthefisheriesandtheirenvironmentalcontext,andseektoprovideaninitialvulnerabilityanalysisandidentifysome early adaptation options.

1.1 The vulnerability assessment frameworkThefourcasestudieswereguidedbythewidely-adoptedIPCCvulnerabilityassessment(VA)framework,anditsdefinitionsandconcepts.1 They also took into account the insights contributed by Marshall et al. (2010)andCinneret al.(2013).AmodifiedversionoftheframeworkispresentedinFigure1.Inthisversion,theterm“adaptivecapacity”hasreplacedtheoriginalterm(andconcept)“recoverypotential”intheecologicalcomponentoftheframework;thereasonforthisisexplainedinSection1.2.

1. IPCC, 2007.

Figure 1: Heuristic framework for linked social-ecological vulnerability(source:adaptedfromCinneret al., 2013)

3

Chapter 1: Background

When considering this framework, it is important to bear in mind the nested structure of the social-ecological systems of interest, as shown in Figure 2.2Toemphasizethisnestedstructureitispossibletoconceptualizesomesortofsuperdomain(title(1)inthefigure)ofclimateandoceanographicconditionstowhichanumberofmarineecologydomains(2)aremoreorlesssimilarlyexposed.

Eachdomain,whethertheyarecoralreeforsmallpelagicfishecosystems(orseagrassbeds,largepelagicecosystems, etc.), will express a particular suite of sensitivity and adaptive/recovery potentials for a given exposure. In turn, each of these ecological domains is likely to be exploited by a number of socio-economic subdomains(3)whichgeneratearangeofgoodsandservices.Definingthebiologicalboundariesoftheecologicaldomainsisincreasinglyrecognizedasbeinglargelyfutile,butsuperimposedoverthesedomainsare very real political boundaries. Therefore, it is apparent that some ecological domains may be fairly easilycharacterizedasbeingsharedacrosscountries(andthereforemanagedunderdifferentpoliciesandperhapsexploitedunderdifferenteconomiccontexts).Thecasestudiesonthesmallpelagicfisheriesprovideclearexamplesofthis–individualstocksareexploitedbyfishersfromanumberofcountriesoperatingunderarangeoffisherymanagementregimesandsocio-economicconditions.

Thecharacteristicsofthesocio-economicsubdomains(whichmaybenumerous)arepartlydeterminedbyhigherlevelcharacteristicsoftheirparentdomainandsuperdomain;andpartlybyintrinsicattributes,which are likely to include environmental, geographical, historical, political, social and economic features. Thisisanecessarysimplificationofrealitybecauseitisclearthattherearecertainattributesthatmaybesharedbyanumberofsubdomains(e.g.nationalmacroeconomicpolicies)andothersspecifictoindividualsubdomains(e.g.marketopportunities).

The overall suite of attributes will determine the socio-economic sensitivity, social adaptive capacity and, subsequently, the overall social-ecological vulnerability, which is most detailed at the subdomain level. The extent to which the various domains can be analysed for a particular assessment will clearly

2. Smit & Wandel, 2006.

Figure 2: Nested model of a vulnerability assessment

4

dependonthehumanandfinancialresources,andthedataandinformationresourcesavailable,orwhichmaybegenerated.Forthefourcasestudiesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,nonewdatawasgeneratedand they are based entirely on existing data and information sourced and collated by the authors of the individual chapters.

Anaspectthatisnotexplicitlyidentifiedinthisnestedmodelisthatoftime.Allthecomponentsarelikelyto be more or less dynamic over time, with feedback mechanisms between the various components of the system explicitly captured in the framework shown previously in Figure 1.

BeforedealingwiththedefinitionsoftermsintheVAframework,contributorstoVAthinkinghaveidentifiedsomeimportantpracticalissuestoconsiderwhenundertakingaVA.ManyoftheseissueswerecollatedduringtheFAO’sExpertWorkshoponAssessingClimateChangeVulnerabilityinFisheriesandAquacultureinNamibia.3

Clarity of objectivesThemotivationfortheinitialdecisiontoundertakeaVA,includingdefiningtheobjective(s)andhowthese may contribute to higher level goals, must be clearly elucidated.4 In the four case studies that are thesubjectthisreport,theobjectiveistoinvestigateindetailthenatureoftheimpactsofclimatechange,the vulnerabilities of the selected social-ecological systems and to identify current and potential coping mechanisms/strategies as well as biophysical and social characteristics/attributes that increase resilience totheseimpacts.Threeofthecasestudyfisherieshavenotyetbeenunequivocallyimpactedbyclimatechange and therefore the assessments presented here are primarily ex ante assessments. They aim to identify what is known and, by logical extension, what are the important gaps in knowledge for the individual systems.And,theyseektoprovidesomereflectionsontheextenttowhichcurrentpolicies,managementplans,regulations,informationsystems,etc.provideamatch(ormis-match)foreffectiveadaptationandthe building of adaptive capacity.

ConstraintsTheVAsweredevelopedbasedonexistingliterature,researchpapers,governmentreports,etc.andnonew data were collected. This has obvious implications because direct inputs and observations have not been incorporated.5Themostsignificantgapisanunderstandingoftheadaptivebehaviourwithinthefisheries,fromtheperspectiveofthefishers,traders,investors,etc.Thecasestudies,andtheresearchreferenced therein, provide a starting point for the national administrations and other relevant parties to subsequentlyengageprimarystakeholders,tocapturetheirperceptionsandunderstandingofthe(potential)impacts of climate change, and their ideas for actions that might mitigate these impacts.

1.2 Definition of termsExposureTheIPCCglossaryofterms,definesexposureas“Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystem(humanandecological)isexposedtosignificantclimaticvariationsandassociatedhazards”.Thecasestudiesdescribethe broad climatic and oceanographic conditions of the marine environment in which the various social-ecologicalsystems(thefisheries)arenested(tovaryingdegreesofavailabledetail)andexaminetheactualand potential variations and changes resulting from climate change.

Thecasestudiesarefocusedonfisheriesthathavedevelopedtoexploittheavailablemarineecologyanditisthatecologywhichistheinterfacebetweenclimatechangeandclimatevariationsandthefisherysocio-economic subdomains. This is consistent with the structure of the framework described earlier. Because of constraints on the resources available for the completion of these case studies, and the limited data available, they do not include an assessment of direct effects of exposure to climatic variations, such

3. FAO/PaCFA,2013.4. FAO/PaCFA,opcit.5. FAO,2013.

5

Chapter 1: Background

as the potential for an increased frequency of extreme weather events and its implication for safety at sea, for example.

SensitivityTheIPCCdefinessensitivityas“…thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,by climate-related stimuli”.6Thiselementoftheassessmentsseekstobrieflydescribetheecologyoftheindividual system in question, and to describe how that ecology is expected to be affected by the climate/oceanographicchangesidentifiedunderthesectionthatdealswithexposure.

Itisclearthatthereisasignificantdegreeofuncertaintyinvolvedindetermininghowasystemmayactuallybeaffectedbyclimate-relatedstimuli.Intermsoffisheriessystems,DrAndrewBakunobserved,“…afterdecadesofeffort,anadequateunderstandingofthelinkagesofclimatetofishpopulationdynamicscontinuestolargelyeludeus…”7 while Fréon et al.(2009)commentedthat“Predictingtheeffectofclimatechangeonmarineecosystems…presentsaformidablechallenge”.Inthecasestudies,observationsonsensitivityarebasedonthemostrecent,peer-reviewedscientificpublications–thebestavailableknowledge.

TheoriginalIPCCframeworkandtheassociateddefinitionofsensitivityimplybothecologicalandsocialelements,buttheframeworkappliedheremakesanovertdistinctionbetweenthetwo.AusefuldefinitionofsocialsensitivityisprovidedbyCinnerandBodin(2010),whodefineitas“thedegreeofsusceptibilitytoharmresultingfromexposuretoclimaticstressesandshocksandinthecontextofcoastalfisheriesislikely to be related to dependence on marine resources”.

Recovery potential/adaptive capacityTheIPCCdefinitionofadaptivecapacityis“Theabilityofasystemtoadjusttoclimatechange(includingclimate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences”.

Thepreferenceforincludingtheconceptofadaptivecapacityoftheecologicalsystem(whichwasintheoriginal IPCC formulation), as well as recovery potential, which was used by Cinner et al.(2013),stemsfrom the recognition of the likely stochastic and dynamic nature of responses by the various components of an ecological system to perturbations. Change will no doubt occur, but to conceive of a process of recovery to some sort of baseline status is not always appropriate given that the basic characteristics of atmosphere and oceanography to which the individual ecological systems are exposed have been, or will be,modified.

Inreferencetotheadaptivecapacityofsocio-economiccomponents,thedefinitionofCinneret al.(2013)isuseful.Theydefinesocialadaptivecapacityas“theabilityofhouseholdstoanticipateandrespondtochangesinecosystemsandfisheries,andtominimize,copewith,andrecoverfromtheconsequences.”However, it is also necessary to broaden the scope of social adaptive capacity to incorporate economic andfisheriespolicies;fisheriesmanagementplans;informationsystems;socialandeconomicnetworks;theresponsesofvessel/gearownersandfishtraders,etc.8 These factors will play a role in determining thescopeoftheabilityoffisherhouseholdsthemselvestorespond.Forexample,Brooks(2003)observedthat “the extent to which adaptation occurs will be decided by processes operating at a range of scales”. Brooks went on to note another important point about adaptive capacity, namely that capacity to adapt is onethingbutthatitsrealizationisoftendependentonanumberoffactorsincludingpoliticalwill.Brooksargues that his term “adaptation likelihood” was perhaps a more appropriate term. In reading the case studies, the adaptation likelihood must be borne in mind.

Socio-ecological vulnerabilityVulnerabilityisthecombinationofthethreebasiccomponentsoftheframework,namelyexposure,sensitivityandadaptivecapacity.TheIPCCdefinitionofvulnerabilityisthe“degreetowhichasystem

6. IPCC, 2001.7. Bakun, 2010.8. Smit & Wandel, 2006.

6

is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability andextremesandrelatedhazards.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity”.AsAdger(2006)observed, “the assessment of vulnerability is the end point of a sequence of analyses”, from determining thenatureandextentofcurrent(andpotential)exposureofasystem,evaluatingthesensitivityofthesystem to that exposure, and then identifying the capacity to adapt to the outcomes of that sensitivity. For the four case studies, the framework selected to guide the assessments makes the distinction between ecological and socio-economic exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. So there are effectively two assessments taking place, with the ecological assessment feeding into the socio-economic assessment. Where the adaptive capacity of the ecology is high, impacts on the socio-economic component will be mitigated. Similarly, if social adaptive capacity is also high, the net impact of climate change will be lower thanwouldotherwisebethecase.Therefore,“…atthefinalstage,anyresidualconsequencesdefinelevelsofvulnerability;thatis,thelevelofvulnerabilityisdeterminedbytheadverseconsequencesthatremainafter the process of adaptation has taken place”.9

1.3 Ocean acidificationForthe400000yearspriortotheindustrialrevolution,atmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2) concentrations ranged between 200 and 280 pp10.Theglobalmeanconcentrationin2013was396ppm,asmeasuredattheMaunaLoaObservatory(NOAA-ESRL).Approximately26percentofthemeanannualatmosphericCO2

emissions from 2002 to 2011 were absorbed by the ocean “sink”11 and global data collected over several decades indicate that the oceans have absorbed at least half of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that have occurred since 1750.12 This carbon dioxide has combined with water to form carbonic acid, which,likeallacids,releaseshydrogenions(H+)intosolution,makingoceansurfacewater30percentmore acidic on average.

The IPCC estimates suggest that by 2100 the concentration of CO2 will exceed 800 ppm, resulting in a12percentincreaseinsurfacewaterdissolvedinorganiccarbon(DIC)anda60percentdecreaseincarbonate ion concentration. Such a change in water chemistry would cause a decrease in pH of about 0.4 units.13Dependingontheextentoffuturecarbondioxideemissionsandotherfactors,theIPCC(2007)predicts that ocean acidity could increase by 150 percent by 2100.

Evidencefromexperimentsandobservationsindicatethatfutureoceanacidificationwillaffectmanymarineorganisms,withimplicationsforecosystemsandecosystemservices.Attentiontodatehasmostlyfocusedonspecies-specificresponses,revealinghightaxonomicvariability.Forinstance,adultmarinefisharegenerallytolerantofhighCO2 conditionsbutresponsesbyjuvenilesandlarvaeincludediminishedolfactory and auditory ability which affects predator detection. Some species may be unaffected, at least directly, while the most sensitive ones may experience near total recruitment failure.14 There may also be indirect effects mediated through food webs, together with interactions with other stressors and combined effects that could be additive, synergistic or antagonistic. More optimistically, there might also be inter-generational adaptation to high CO2 conditions, by at least some groups of species.15

CoralsTheimpactofoceanacidificationoncoralsisreducedcalcificationandgrowth.EvenanincreaseintheCO2

concentrationtojust560ppmmayreducecalcificationandgrowthbyupto40pecent.Hoegh-Guldberg(2005).reportedtheworkofLoughandBarnes(2000),whoarguedthatreducedcalcificationincoralsfromchangesinpHwouldbeatleastpartiallycompensatedforbyincreasedratesofcalcificationasa

9. Adger,2006.10. Feely et al., 2004.11. Le Quéré et al., 2012.12. Sabine et al., 2004.13. Feely et al.,2004;Doneyet al.,2009.14. Barton et al., 2012.15. Kelly & Hofmann, 2012.

7

Chapter 1: Background

result of a rise in the temperature of the oceans. In addition, Hoffman et al.(2011)arguedthatthenaturalvariabilityinpHwasinsufficientlyintegratedintoanalysesofacidificationandthat“Naturalvariabilitymay occur at rates much higher than the rate at which carbon dioxide is decreasing ocean pH”.16 They suggested that coral reef organisms may in fact have adaptive capacity to deal with a range of pH, but also thattherearemanyfactorsindeterminingcalcificationratesbeyondjustseawaterchemistry.Theauthorsfurther argued that sustained reduction in pH may be the critical issue regarding organisms’ responses to theoveralldeclineinpHthatisexpectedtobecausedbyclimatechange.Acidificationisalsobelievedto play a role in determining coral bleaching sensitivity.17

PlanktonTheacidificationoftheoceansisanareaofclimatechangethatisattractingincreasedattentionandthereisparticular concern about the saturation rates of CaCO3(botharagoniteandcalciteforms)whichisessentialto, for example, coccolithophore and formaminerfera groups of calcereous plankton.18 Pre-industrial rates of CaCO3saturationweretypicallyverylow(afewpercentbyvolume).CitingtheresearchofBartonet al.(2012)theIPCCnotesthateasternboundaryupwellingsystemssuchasfoundoffNorthwestAfrica,are typically low in pH and have relatively high concentrations of CO2 which increases their vulnerability toacidification.However,modellingbyLachkarandGruber19 suggests that the Canary Current system maybelesssensitivetoacidificationthanappearstobethecaseforothersystemssuchastheCaliforniaCurrentupwellingsystem,forexample.TheyfindthatcontinuedemissionsofatmosphericCO2 will increase the volume of undersaturated water in the Canary Current system from current levels of about 5 percent to 25 percent by 2050 as atmospheric CO2 levels increase to approximately 540 ppm. This will “lead to substantial habitat compression for CO2-sensitive species in both systems, particularly organisms that use CaCO3 to build mineral structures”. However, this is compared to 75 percent volume of undersaturated waters in the California Curent system, as a result of different fractions under current atmospheric CO2

levels(5percentfortheCanaryCurrentsystemversus25percentfortheCaliforniansystem).Ontheother hand, when upwelling favourable winds are increased in the model for the Canary Current system, the volume of undersaturated nearshore water actually declines. In the model for the California Current system, similar scenarios result in an increase in volume up to about 40 percent. The authors put this downtothetopographyandthewidthofthecontinentalshelfoffNorthwestAfrica.Thesecharacteristics(whicharesummarizedintheSenegalcasestudy)appeartoplayanimportantroleinnutrientretentionin the Canary Current upwelling system.

Research is now addressing the more complex issues surrounding the response of marine ecology to ocean acidificationandotherstressors,overlongertimescales,buttherearemanyuncertainties.Theserelatetothescaleanddirectionofsocio-economicimpacts,primarilyimpactsoncommerciallyimportantspecies;biogeochemically-drivenfeedbackstotheclimatesystem;andglobalelementcycles.20

1.4 Ecology of small pelagic speciesFréon et al.(2009)proposedthreelevelsofknowledgeontheecologicalvulnerabilityofanecosystem,employingtheterminologyofJonathanDickau(1999).Heconsideredtheknown,theunknownbutknowable, and the unknowable.

Climatechangeinducedalterationsinoceaniccirculation,stratificationandprimaryproductionareknown(ormoreorlesspredictable).Itisalsoknownthatthesechangeswillaffectecosystemservices,populationdistributionsandabundanceandthattherewillbesomespeciesthatbenefitandsomethatloseout. However, the detailed location of changes in circulation, of productivity, etc. are generally unknown but can be empirically observed and therefore measured in the future at least, and are therefore potentially knowable. The third term covers the unknowable, which includes the timing and intensity of any changes,

16. Hofmann et al., 2011, p.7.17. Hoegh-Guldberg,2005.18. e.g. Doney et al.,2009.19. Lachkar&Gruber,2012,p.8.20. Williamson, 2013.

8

howspeciesmayadapt(evolve)tothenewconditions,andthetimingofanysubstantiveregimeshifts.One reason for these being unknowable is because, as Checkley et al.(2009)andBakun(2010)alludedto,lineartrendsinGHGconcentrationsarenotnecessarilytranslatedintolineartrendsintheresponseofecosystems.Overlayingthisarethenaturaloscillations,cycles,etc.,andfishingpressure,whichmayact to mask or, alternatively, accentuate ecosystem responses.

ThechallengeofdeterminingthesensitivityofafishpopulationtoclimatechangeisrecognizedbybothBakun(2009)andFréonet al.(2009)whowentontodescribethecomplexityofthepotentialimpactsofclimateonpopulationsofsmallpelagicspecies(andwhichisrelevantregardlessofanyanthropogenicclimate change) that derive from:

• “directandindirecteffects;

• laggedorunlaggedeffects;

• feedbacks;

• thresholdeffects;

• non-linearresponses;

• spatialheterogeneityinthechanges;

• interactionsbetweendifferenttemporalscales(naturalandsocial);and,

• ecosystem effects.”

In an attempt to create a manageable framework for thinking about possible mechanisms through which climatechangemayimpactsmallpelagicfisheries,theworkofBakunisausefulstartingpoint.Anumberofoceanographicprocessesarethoughttoinfluencesmallpelagicspecies’reproductivesuccess,naturalmortality, recruitment, growth, migration and overall spatial distribution. These processes were neatly encapsulated by Bakun21 in what has subsequently been termed “Bakun’s Triad”.22 They are as follows:

(1)enrichmentprocesses(upwelling,mixing,etc.);

(2)concentrationprocesses(convergence,frontalformation,watercolumnstability);and

(3)processesfavouringretentionwithin(ordrifttoward)appropriatehabitat.

The development of a favourable triad of conditions is in turn determined by a number of underlying geomorphological characteristics of the coast and by wider oceanographic and atmospheric processes. In terms of enrichment processes, for example, the case study site of Senegal is located in the northern hemisphere,thecoastlinehasameridional(north−south)alignmentanditissituatedonaneasternboundarycoast,andthereforeitscoastalwatersareupwelledbyseasonalnortheasterly(i.e.offshore)windsthroughtheprocessofEkmantransport.InthecaseofGhana,thecoastiszonal(i.e.alignedmoreorlesseast−west)andtheprocessesthatdrivetheseasonalupwellingaremorecomplex.Theyarelikelytoincludeeddies,oceanicKelvinwavesandseasonallydivergingcurrents.ForTanzania,thesituationisquite different: it is in the southern hemisphere but with dominant southeasterly winds and is a western boundary coast and therefore largely a downwelling system.

In all the case study sites, an important observation is that local processes in the case study regions are in turn driven by atmospheric and oceanographic processes operating at a far larger scale, or by processes that takeplaceelsewherearoundtheglobe,butinfluencethecasestudysitesthroughso-calledteleconnections.For example, an important atmospheric driver for all the case study systems is the ENSO, while both sides oftheAfricancontinentareaffectedbyimportantoceanographicteleconnections;anexampleforEastAfrica(andthewiderIndianOcean)istheITF.

Itisalsoimportanttobearinmindtheexistenceofdifferent(natural)temporalscalesofclimatevariations.Anthropogenicclimatechangeisnottakingplaceinthecontextofsomesortofsteadystateorbalanced

21. Bakun,1996;Bakun,1998.22. e.g. Checkley et al., 2013.

9

Chapter 1: Background

set of environmental conditions. In fact change, or at least variability in climate, is the norm, not only temporallybutalsospatially.Scalesofglobalclimatevariabilityhavebeenidentifiedthatsuggestatleastquasi-biennial(2to3years),interannual(3to7years),quasi-decadal(8to13years),interdecadal(17to23years)andmultidecadal(40to80years)periodicity.23AdiagrammaticrepresentationofthenatureofpotentialtemporalandspatialinteractionswithfisheriesispresentedinFigure3.

Small pelagic species may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate and the associated effects on the marine environment because of their trophic position within marine ecosystems and because of certain features of their reproductive and feeding physiology and ecology. There is a body of evidence, forexample,thatshowsthatcertainfamilieswithinthesmallpelagicgroup(e.g.sardines)experiencedramaticfluctuationsinpopulationsize,whichmaybequasi-synchronous,orasynchronouswithotherfamilieswithinthisgroup(e.g.anchovies)andelementsofthesefluctuationscanbestronglycoupledwith,or at least triggered by, climate variations. Figure 4 presents an example of relative population densities of

23. Tourre et al., 2007.

Figure3:Interactionsbetweentemporalandspatialscales(source:redrawnfromBertrandet al., 2004)

Figure4:Timeseriesofdepositsofsardineandanchovyscales,SantaBarbaraBasin,PacificOcean(source:redrawnfromFieldet al.,2009)

10

sardines(Sardinops sagax)andanchovy(Engraulis mordax) derived from analyses of the abundance of fishscalesinsedimentsintheSantaBarbaraBasinoffCalifornia,datingbacktotheyear400.24 The nature ofthesechangesinpopulationsizesandrelativedominancearesymptomaticofwiderecosystemregimeshifts.Regimeshiftscanbedefinedas“low-frequency,high-amplitudechangesinoceanicconditionsthat may be especially pronounced in biological variables and propagate through several trophic levels”.25

Isaacs(1976,citedbyFieldet al.,2009)observedthat“thereareprobablyagreatnumberofpossibleregimes;multifariousregimesinvolvingbiologyorclimate,oroceanography,ormigrations,temperature,orweather,orcombinationsofthese”.Whatiscertainisthatthevastmajorityofthesefluctuationsoccurredcenturiesbeforeanthropogenicclimatechangewasfirstproposed,andbeforeanysignificantfishingeffortwould have been directed at these species.

ThesimplifiedVAscopingapproachthatisemployedinthisdocument,beginswith“Understandingtheexposure of the human and aquatic system to change” and seeks to identify “biophysical changes expected overdifferenttimescales(annual,decade,century)andtheirimpactsonthesystemunderevaluationand the larger communities dependent on the system”.26A“system”hereistakentomeananecosystem.

AnecosystemisdefinedbytheFAOas“Aspatio-temporalsystemofthebiosphere,includingitslivingcomponents(plants,animals,micro-organisms)andthenon-livingcomponentsoftheirenvironment,withtheir relationships, as determined by past and present environmental forcing functions and interactions amongst biota”.27

Asimplified,butneverthelessveryuseful,schematicdiagramofasmallpelagicfishecosystemandthelikelypathwaysofinfluenceofclimatechangewasdeveloped by Fréon et al.(2013)andispresentedinFigure 5. Within the overall structure of this case study,asdefinedbytheVAapproach,subsectionsof the ecological component of the small pelagic assessments will be approximately structured around this schematic idea.

Some examples of how the various ecosystem componentsmaydrive(and/orinteract)withsmallpelagic species are described as follows:

Freshwaterinfluxes(throughincreasedrainfall)may be irregular and arrive in the form of storm run-off, rather than being an evenly distributed increase in mean seasonal precipitation. Therefore the timing of rainfall anomalies, an increase in the supply of nutrients and any subsequent increase in primary productivity, may not necessarily match thelifecycleofthesmallpelagicfishpopulations.28 The actual storm events may themselves be important. In a series of laboratory experiments and field studies off California, Lasker and colleagues concluded that anchovy larvae required acertainperiodofstabilityintheirenvironment−subsequentlyreferredtoas“Laskerwindows”−

24. Field et al.,2009.25. Collie et al., 2004.26. FAO,2013.27. Garcia,2009.28. Cushing,1974;Bakun,2010.

Figure5:Pathwaysofclimatechangeinfluencesonanoceanecosystem(source:adaptedfromFréonet al.,2009)

11

Chapter 1: Background

inordertosecuresufficientfoodparticlestopassthroughthecriticalearlygrowthphase.FailureofsuchLasker windows to remain open for a minimum period, as a result of storm events, could result in cohort recruitment failure.29

Windvelocities(referredtoaswindstress)willinfluencethedepthofthemixedlayer;reductionsinmeanwindstress,apotentialoutcomeofclimatechangeinsomesituations,canleadtoincreasedstratificationofwaters above the thermocline. This in turn can reduce nutrient availability and recycling and thus impact negatively on primary productivity. On the other hand, a deepening of the mixed layer would increase the vertical distribution of limited nutrients beyond the “critical depth” for phytoplankton production, also leading to reduced primary production.30Theimpactonsmallpelagicfishspeciesmayalsobedifferentdepending on the particular family. For example, Field et al.(2009)describedasituationthatwouldfavouranchovies.Inthisscenario,increasedsurfacemixing(owingtoincreasedsurfacewinds)wouldleadtorelativelycoolertemperatureregimesintheupperlayersoftheocean,whichwouldbenefitdiatomsandlargecalanoidcopepods,thepreferredpreyofanchovies.FieldcitedtheworkofAlheitandNiquen(2004)in the Humboldt Current ecosystems, and van der Lingen et al.(2006)intheBenguelaCurrentecosystemas evidence for this. The reverse of this was also reported, by the same authors cited by Field et al. (2009).Inthissecondscenario,morestablewatercolumns,owingtoreducedwinds/currents(characteristicofElNiñoevents),ledtowarmersurfacewaters,aflagellate-dominatedfoodchainandashiftinthesizespectrumofcrustaceanzooplanktontosmallercopepods.Thishabitatfavouredthefilter-feedingsardines.

Wind plays a role in current strength and current strength can determine the connectivity between and withinpopulations.Agostini(2005)notedthemigrationofPacificsardine,Sardinops Sagax, along the coast ofCaliforniafromspawning(andadjacentnearshorenurseryareas)northtofeedinggroundsinOregonand Washington states, and into British Columbia. The key point is that migrations at different stages of thelifecycleneedtobe“closed”(Bakun,opcit.)inordertomaintaintheviabilityofthepopulation,butthesemigrationscouldbedisruptedby,forexample,weakenedcurrentflows.

Sea water temperature is a direct, key determinant in the distribution and life history of small pelagic fishspecies.Forexample,temperatureisknowntoaffectthedurationofeggandlarvalstagesofsmallpelagicspecies,therateatwhichtheymatureandthesizeandageoffirstreproduction.31 Indirect effects include the abundance and distribution of their predators and their prey.32

Richardson et al.(1988),instudiesoftheCapeanchovy(Engraulis capensis)inSouthAfrica,observedthat the species had greater spawning success in areas where the water temperature was between 16 and 19°C,andwherethermalstabilitywashigher.And,providinganexampleofanindirecteffectoftheSSTregime, this may relate to the fact that copepod prey abundance was greater in those waters. Fréon et al. (opcit.)citedearlierworkbyRobinsonandWare(1994)andRobinson(1994),whichshowedthat“hightemperaturesenhancephytoplanktonproductionandtrophictransferfromphytoplanktontozooplanktontofish…”.Chavezet al.(2003),usinga70-yeardataset(1925to1995),showedthatsardineandanchovypopulationsinthePacificOceanvariedaccordingtoSST(andsealevelpressure,SLP)anomalies.However,they went on to point out that interpretation of small pelagic population responses to SST anomalies is complicated by the fact that the temperature range of sardine species is wider than that of anchovies.33

Bothanchoviesandsardinesexhibithighbatchfecundity.Agostini(2005)indicatedthatS. sagax had an annual fecundity of about 200 000 eggs. In contrast, an important Sardinella species in the context ofEastAfricaforexample,Amblygaster sirm, was reported to produce about 20 000 eggs per batch and Herklotsichthys quadrimaculatusbetween3000and8000eggsperbatchinthePacificOcean.34 Milton et al.(1994)reportedbatchsizefecundityof500to1900eggsandthiswascorrelatedwithSSTandzooplanktondensityonthefeedinggrounds(aswellasindividualbodylength).

29. Bakun, 2010.30. Sverdrup,1953.31. e.g. Butler et al.,1993;Takasukaet al., 2007.32. Fréon et al. op cit.33. Chavezet al.,2003;Twatwaet al., 2005.34. Milton et al.,1994.

12

Agostini(opcit.)alsoreportedthatSSTvariationsaffectedboththetiminganddistributionofsardinespawning. In cold years, spawning generally occurred in the late boreal spring/early summer and in more southerly(warmer)watersofftheBajaPeninsula.Inwarmeryears,earlierspawningpeaksweremorepronounced and extended north to the coasts of central California, Oregon and British Columbia. The movement north during warmer years and the earlier spawning times may yield higher recruitment owing tobothincreasedavailabilityoffoodandreducedpredationpressureonlarvaeandjuveniles.

Therefore higher SSTs may bring a dividend of higher productivity and increase the suitability of the environmentforsardines(butdecreaseitforanchovies)bycausinglocalized,nearshorefallsinsalinityowing to associated increased rainfall.

However, increases in productivity can, paradoxically, cause negative impacts as well as positive ones. ThereissomeevidencethatfallsinprimaryproductivityintheeasternPacificassociatedwithElNiñoare correlated with higher than average year-class biomass of sardines.35BakunandBroad(2003)arguedthatapossibleexplanationforthiswastheconcomitantreductioninthelevelofzooplanktonpredationon sardine larvae. This predation-release dividend compensated for the reduced food availability for sardinejuvenilesandadults.Agostiniobservedlowerzooplanktonabundanceduringwarmeryears,butalsoobservedreducedvarianceinmeasuresofzooplanktondensity.Agostiniarguedthatthezooplanktonpredators were less aggregated and that this would also reduce the probability of an encounter between predator and sardine larvae prey.

Thereverseofthisphenomenon,termedthe“loopholehypothesis”byBakunandBroad(opcit.),isthatinyearsofhigherprimaryproduction,andthereforegreaterzooplanktonabundance,thenegativeeffectsof predation outweighed the positive effects of greater food availability for the sardine larvae. When favourable(low-predation)conditionspersistforsardines,thehigherlarvalsurvivalratesarerapidlymanifestedinlargesize-classes,buttheseconditionsneedtopersistfortwotothreeyears.

Taylor et al.(2012),workingintheCaribbean,arguedthatclimatechangeislikelytohavebeenresponsibleforashiftinphytoplanktoncommunitystructure−fromdiatoms,dinoflagellatesandcoccolithophoridstosmallertaxa−anincreaseinthebiomassofmeso-zooplanktonandacollapseinthelandingsofsardines.It is possible that the collapse is not necessarily the result of a change in the prey species available to the (omnivorous)sardines,butcausedbyincreasedpredationby(themoreabundant)zooplanktononthelarval stage of the sardines. Thomas et al.(2014)reportedthatmigratorypatternsofSardinella gibbosa have been correlated with the availability and seasonality of planktonic prey.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that adult small pelagic species will have “top-down” impactsontheirpreyandalsoexert“bottom-up”controloverspeciesthatpredateonthemasadults(thisis because small pelagic species consume the larvae of their predators). This phenomenon is known as “wasp-waist” control36 and could lead to substantive regime shifts in a small pelagic ecosystem and, given what Shannon et al.(2009)describeasthekeyecologicalroleofsmallpelagicspecies,“climatechangeislikelytoexpressitselfintheecosystemviaitsimpactsonsmallpelagicfish.”.37

ChangesinSSTarelikelytoresultinafundamentalre-distributionofsmallpelagicsfishspecies.38 Fishbase hascollatedinformationandprojectedapossiblere-distributionofspeciesintheyear2100.AnumberofsmallpelagicspeciesareexpectedtoextendtheirrangessouthwardfromtheArabianGulfregionandthecoastofSomalia,toKenya,TanzaniaandperhapsasfarsouthasMozambiqueandMadagascar.Interestingly,twoofthesespecies(e.g.S. gibbosa and Dussumieria acuta)arealreadyidentifiedaskeycomponentsofthecatchinTanzania.

Thediscussionsofarhashighlightedthepossiblesensitivityofsmallpelagicfishspeciestoclimatechangeeffects, with a complex array of both positive and negative impacts conceivable. So what is the adaptive orevolutionarycapacityofsmallpelagicfishpopulationswithinthismodifiedecosystem?Ithasbeen

35. e.g.Arntz&Fahrbach,1996;Niquen&Bouchon,2004.36. Cury et al., 2000, cited by Shannon et al.,2009.37. Shannon et al.,2009.38. Wooster&Bailey,1989.

13

Chapter 1: Background

observedpreviouslythatchangeissomethingthathascharacterizedsmallpelagicspeciesecosystemsandpopulationsformillennia.ThefishscaledepositsfromSantaBarbaraindicatehowsubstantialthesechangescanbe,andalsohowsmallpelagicspeciesareabletosurvive,albeitinnewconfigurationsofpopulation abundance, distributions, etc.

Thelifehistorystrategiesofsmallpelagicfishappeartoprovideasignificantdegreeofadaptabilitytochangingenvironmentalconditions.Anchovies,andparticularlysardines,arecharacterizedbyasignificantinvestmentinreproductiveoutput;thisnotonlyreflectstheveryhighmortalityandlossofeggsandlarvaebutisalsosomethingofacalculated,albeithighrisk,strategy.Agostini(opcit.)describedthestrategyasoneofinvestmentofenergytosamplethewiderenvironment;indeedsomeresearchsuggeststhatthehugeseasonalsardinemigrationnorthfromtheAgulhasBankinSouthAfricaisundertakenpreciselyforthat reason. This suggestion is based on the observation that higher plankton abundance is found on the AgulhasBankcomparedtothenorthernKwazulu-Natalcoast,thedestinationofthemigrantsardines.Cury(1994)arguedthatwhenafavourablehabitatisdiscovered,individualsareimprintedtoreturnthere and therefore the population can rapidly increase its biomass if favourable conditions persist there formorethanoneyear.Anchovy,withreportedlyrathermorespecificpreferencesforaparticularsuiteof environmental conditions, is perhaps less adaptable. However, both sardine and anchovy display life historyplasticity.Agostini(opcit.)producedasimpletableofcomparisonoflifehistoryresponsesacrossthetwofamiliestowarmandcoolconditions,whichhighlightsthisplasticity(Table1).

Table 1: CaliforniaCurrentanchovyandsardinelifehistoriesbyproductivityregime(source:Agostini,2005)

regime

Family Productive unproductiveClupeidae Warm CoolAgeofmaturity 2−3years 1−2years~ Maximum age >13 yrs 4 yrsEngraulidae Cool WarmAgeofmaturity 2 yrs 1 yr~ Maximum age 6 yrs 4 yrs

Anoftenmentionedfeatureofsmallpelagicpopulationdynamicsisthat,ratherthantherebeingadensity-dependentvariationaroundsomesortofequilibriumcarryingcapacity,smallpelagicfishpopulationstendtobeateitherveryloworveryhighbiomass,witharapidtransitionbetweenthetwo.Bakun(2006;2010)proposedamechanismforthiscalledthepredatorpitloop(Figure6).Theexplanationofthismechanismbeginswiththeideathatbelowacertainprey(i.e.smallpelagicfish)abundancelevel,predatorinterest

Figure6:Bakun’spredatorpitfunction(source:redrawnfromBakun,2010)

14

declinestoverylowlevels(therebysafeguardingthepreyspeciesfromextinction).Abovethisminimumlevelofabundance,predatormortalityisconstantandhigh,untilapointofsatiationisreached.Astheabundanceofsmallpelagicfish(theprey)increasesabovethepredatorsatiationlevel,thepredationrate(percentageofthepreyconsumedperunittime)significantlydeclinesandapproacheszero(i.e.percentagepreysurvivingperunittime=100percent).Thecriticalintersectionpoint(markedonFigure6)isthelevelofproductionbelowwhichtheprey(i.e.smallpelagicfish)populationwillcollapseowingtopredation (itfallsintothepredatorpit),butabovewhichthepopulationwillrapidlyaccelerateitsgrowth.

The status of a small pelagic population vis-à-vis the critical intersection point is obviously determined by theproductivityofthewiderecosystem,whichdeterminestheabundanceofphytoplankton(thepreyofthesmallpelagicfish)andzooplankton(apredatorofjuvenilesmallpelagicfishandthepreyofadultsmallpelagicfish).Inmoderntimes,thesignificantreductioninpopulationsofcommerciallyvaluabletunaspecies,majorpredatorsofadultsmallpelagicfish,hasalsoplayedaroleininfluencingtheirpopulationtrajectories.Ifthepredatorpitfunctiondoesindeeddescriberealcharacteristicsofsmallpelagicfishpopulationdynamics,it might represent a mechanism that can shield populations already stressed by climate change induced reductions in their populations from the additional stress of background natural predation.

Anotherconsiderationrelatingtotheabilityofsmallpelagicfishtoadapttochangingecosystemcharacteristicsistheability,likealllifeonEarth,ofbeingabletoevolve.Bakun(2010)arguesthatevidencefromsomethingas prosaic as domestic animal breeding programmes shows how rapid evolutionary change can be. He notes that,underselectivepressuretodoso,fishareabletoaltertheirgrowthrates(citingConoverandMunch,2002);theirageofmaturityandreproductiveoutput;thedateofreturntonatalrivers(e.g.salmon);femalebodysize;malebodydepth;andembryotraits,includingsurvivaltohatching,developmentrateandsizeat emergence.39 These adaptations have been observed to take place over between nine and 30 generations, depending on the particular trait. The summary of the apparent life history plasticity of sardines and anchovy, presentedinTable1pointstoasignificantgeneticdiversityinsmallpelagicfishpopulationsthatprovidesforsuch adaptation to take most advantage of a particular set of environmental conditions. For example, Thomas et al.(opcit.)recentlyreportedongeneticanalysesofdifferentstocksofS. gibbosa in the Philippines and theirresultsindicatedsignificant(cryptic)geneticdiversityacrossthestocks.

Afinalobservationonsmallpelagicfishspeciesrelatestotheissueofchangeandrecovery.Fieldet al. (opcit.)observedthat“Thepatternofsardinefluctuationsimpliedbythepaleosedimentaryrecordcouldnot be reconciled with the conventional equilibrium view of an approximately constant ‘reference’ state oftheresourcecorrespondingtoanunfishedcondition(i.e.,carryingcapacity,inecologicalterms)”.Inotherwords,smallpelagicfishpopulationsdon’trecoversomuchasmoveontoanewpatternofdistribution,populationsizeandrelativeabundance.Thisconceptisoftenreferredtoasaregimeshift.40 Anyconsiderationofthemanagementofsmallpelagicfisheriesmustbearthiscrucialobservationinmind.

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Le Quéré, C., andres, r.J., Boden, T., Conway, T., Houghton, r.a., House, J.I., Marland, g., Peters, g.P., van der Werf, g.r., ahlström, a., andrew, r.M., Bopp, L., Canadell, J.g., Ciais, P., doney, S.C., Enright, C., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C., Jain, a.k., Jourdain, C., kato, E., keeling, r.F., klein goldewijk, k., Levis, S., Levy, P., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., raupach, M.r., Schwinger, J., Sitch, S., Stocker, B.d., Viovy, n., Zaehle, S. & Zeng, n. 2012. The global carbon budget1959–2011.Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.,5:1107–1157.

Lough J.M. & Barnes, d.J. 2000 Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol.,245:225–243.

Marshall, n.a., Marshall, P.a., Tamelander, J., obura, d.o., Mallaret-king, d. & Cinner, J.E. 2010.Aframeworkforsocialadaptationtoclimatechange:sustainingtropicalcoastalcommunitiesandindustries.Gland,Switzerland.IUCN.36pp.

17

Chapter 1: Background

Milton, d.a., Blaber, S.J.M. & rawlinson, n.J.F. 1994.ReproductivebiologyandeggproductionofthreespeciesofClupeidaefromKiribati,TropicalcentralPacific.Fishery Bulletin,92:102−121.

Ñiquen, M. & Bouchon, M.2004.ImpactofElNiñoeventsonpelagicfisheriesinPeruvianwaters.Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,51(6–9):563–574.

Quinn, T.P., Wetzel, L., Bishop, S., overberg, k. & rogers, d.E.2001.Influenceofbreedinghabitatonbear predation and age at maturity and sexual dimorphism of sockeye salmon populations. Canadian Journal of Zoology,79:1782–1793.

reznick, d., Bryga H. & Endler, J.a.1990.Experimentallyinducedlife-historyevolutioninanaturalpopulation. Nature,346:357–359.

richardson, a.J., Mitchell-Innes, B.a., Fowler, J.L., Bloomer, S.F., Verheye, H.M., Field, J.g., Hutchings, L. & Painting, S.J. 1988.TheeffectofseatemperatureandfoodavailabilityonthespawningsuccessofCapeAnchovyEngraulis capensis in the Southern Benguela. African Journal of Marine Science,19:275–290.

robinson C.L.k.1994.Theinfluenceofoceanclimateoncoastalplanktonandfishproduction.Fish. Oceanogr.3:159–171.

robinson, C.L.k. & Ware, d.M.1999.SimulatedandobservedresponseofthesouthwestVancouverIslandpelagicecosystemtooceanicconditionsinthe1990's.Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.,56:2433–2443.

Sabine, C.L., Feely, r.a., gruber, n., key, r.M., Lee, k., Bullister, J.L., Wanninkhof, r., Wong, C.S., Wallace, d.W.r., Tilbrook, B., Millero, F.J., Peng, T-H, kozyr, a., ono T. & rios, a.F. 2004. The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2, Science,305:367–371.

Shannon, L., Coll, M., neira, S., Cury, P. & roux, J-P.2009.Impactsoffishingandclimatechangeexploredusingtrophicmodels,p.214–284.InD.M.Checkley,J.Alheit,Y.Oozeki&C.Roy,eds.2009.Climate change and small pelagic fish.Cambridge,UK.CambridgeUniversityPress.

Smit, B. & Wandel, J.2006.Adaptation,adaptivecapacityandvulnerability.Global Environmental Change,16:282–292.doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008.

Sverdrup, H.u.1953.Onconditionsforthevernalbloomingofphytoplankton.Journal du Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer,18:287–295.

Takasuka, a., oozeki, Y. & aoki, I. 2007. Optimal growth temperature hypothesis: why do anchovy flourishandsardinecollapseorviceversaunderthesameoceanregime?Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,64(5):768−776.

Taylor, g.T., Muller-karger, F.E., Thunell, r.C., Scranton, M.I., astor, Y., Varela, r., Troccoli, L., ghinaglia, L., Lorenzoni, L., Fanning, k.a., Hameed, S. & doherty, o. 2012. Ecosystem responses inthesouthernCaribbeanSeatoglobalclimatechange.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica,109(47).doi:10.1073/pnas.1207514109.

Thomas Jr., r.C., Willette, d.a., Carpenter, k.E. & Santos, M.d. 2014. Hidden diversity in sardines: genetic and morphological evidence for cryptic species in the goldstripe sardinella, Sardinella gibbosa (Bleeker,1849).PLoS ONE,9(1):e84719.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0084719.

Tourre, Y.M., Lluch-Cota, S.E. & White, W.B.2007.Globalmulti-decadaloceanclimateandsmallpelagicfishpopulation.Environ. Res. Lett.,2.doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/3/034005.

Tulley, L.2013.SIO210:Indianoceancirculation-monsoons,tropicalandoverturning.Availableathttp://www-pord.ucsd.edu/~Italley/sio201/Indian/

Twatwa, n.M., van der Lingen, C.d., drapeau, L., Moloney, C.L. & Field, J.g. 2005. Characterising and comparing the spawning habitats of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem. African Journal of Marine Science,27(2):487−499.

van der Lingen, C.d., Hutchings, L. & Field, J.g. 2006. Comparative trophodynamics of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax in the southern Benguela: are species alternations between anchovyandsardineinthesouthernBenguelatrophodynamicallymediated?Afr. J. mar. Sci.,28:465–477.

Williamson, P.2013.Impactsofoceanacidification.Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Science Review:34–48.

Wooster, W.W. & Bailey, k.M.1989.Recruitmentofmarinefishesrevisited.In R.J. Beamish, & G.A.McFarlane,eds.Effectsofoceanvariabilityonrecruitmentandanevaluationofparametersused in stock assessment models. Can. Spec. Pub. Fish. Aquat. Sci.,108:153−159.

18

Chapter 2

THE SMaLL PELagIC FISHErIES oF TanZanIa

By Jim Anderson

Independent consultant Ville-la-Grand, France

Melita Samoilys Coastal Oceans Research and Development – Indian Ocean (CORDIO East Africa)

Nairobi, Kenya

photo credit: Matt Richmond

19

Chapter2:ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofTanzania

Contents ...............................................................................................................................................Page

1. IntroductiontothesmallpelagicfisheriesofTanzania .................................................................... 22

1.1. The marine environment of the WIO ........................................................................................ 22

1.2.Smallpelagicfishspeciesdiversity .......................................................................................... 23

1.3.Thefishery ................................................................................................................................ 25

2. The WIO marine environment and its exposure to climate change .................................................. 28

2.1.Atmosphereandclimate ........................................................................................................... 28

2.2. Ocean circulation and thermal dynamics .................................................................................. 31

2.3. Primary productivity ................................................................................................................. 33

3. Thesensitivityofthesmallpelagicfishcomponentoftheecosystem ............................................. 34

3.1.Atmosphereandclimateeffects ................................................................................................ 34

3.2. Ocean thermal dynamics and circulation .................................................................................. 35

4. The socio-economic context ............................................................................................................ 35

4.1. Ecological vulnerability ............................................................................................................ 35

4.2. Socio-economic sensitivity ....................................................................................................... 36

4.3.Adaptivecapacity ..................................................................................................................... 36

5. Socio-ecological vulnerability ......................................................................................................... 39

6. Smallpelagicfisheriesmanagement ............................................................................................... 39

7. References ........................................................................................................................................ 55

ListoffiguresFigure 1: Representation of currents during the southeast monsoon ................................................ 22

Figure 2: Representation of currents during the northeast monsoon ................................................ 23

Figure3: AreconstructionofTanzania’smarinefisheriescatch ...................................................... 26

Figure4: Weightoflandings(tonnes)ofsmallpelagicfishbyregion(1988and2010) .................. 26

Figure5: Landingsofsmallpelagicfish(andtotalcatch),Zanzibar2000to2012 .......................... 27

Figure6: AtypicalEastAfricanring-netvesselwithnets ............................................................... 28

Figure7: MajorcoastalriversofTanzania ....................................................................................... 29

Figure8: MeanmonthlyrainfallforDaresSalaam1990to2009 .................................................. 29

Figure9: Precipitationchanges(southeastmonsoon)inEastAfrica ............................................... 30

Figure10: Precipitationchanges(northeastmonsoon)inEastAfrica ............................................... 30

20

Figure11: PredictedprecipitationforcoastalTanzania ..................................................................... 30

Figure12: SeasonalSSTfortheIndianOcean1998to2002 ............................................................. 31

Figure13: SSTanomalies(relativeto1970to2005climatology) ..................................................... 31

Figure14: IndianOceanSSTanomaliesandsizeofcorrelationwith ElNiñoeventsinthePacificOcean .................................................................................. 32

Figure15: Tanzanianeddyduringsoutheastmonsoon ...................................................................... 33

Figure 16: Seasonal variations in chlorophyll-a, WIO ....................................................................... 33

Figure17: HistoricalsmallpelagicfishinggroundsaroundDaresSalaam ....................................... 36

Figure18: Approximatedistributionofring-netfishinggroundsincentralTanzania ....................... 37

Figure19: Timeseriesofsmallpelagic(Sardinellas nei)landingsfromTanzania ............................ 39

Figure20: StatbasedataforsmallpelagicfishinTanzania(1989to1997) ....................................... 39

Figure 21: Distribution of D. acuata(source:Fishbase) .................................................................... 40

Figure22: Clupeidaecatch(tonnes)formainlandTanzaniabydistrict,2010to2012 ...................... 40

Figure23: Weightoflandings(tonnes)ofsmallpelagicfishbyregion(1988and2010) .................. 41

Figure24: Length−frequencydistributionforS. gibbosa,1970to1971 ........................................... 41

Figure25: CatchdataforsmallpelagicspeciesinZanzibar,ZAFICO1968to1997 ........................ 42

Figure26: Landingsofsmallpelagicfish(andtotalcatch),Zanzibar2000to2012 .......................... 43

Figure27: CompositedataforsmallpelagicfishcatchesinZanzibar,1968to2012. ........................ 43

Figure28: Marketretailpricedata(USD/kg)forcategoriesoffishinZanzibar ................................ 45

Figure29: Comparisonofprices(USD)forfishinZanzibar ............................................................. 45

Figure30: Evolutionofbeachpriceforsmallpelagicfish(USD/kg)inZanzibar,2005to2012 ...... 45

Figure31: Relativeimportanceoffishgroupforresidentvsmigrantfishers ..................................... 48

Figure32: Benefitsreportedbyhostcommunitiesfrommigrantfishers ........................................... 49

Figure33: PercentageofhouseholdsinZanzibarparticipatinginfisheriesactivities ........................ 50

Figure34: MarineconservationareasofUngujaIsland ..................................................................... 51

List of tablesTable1: SummaryinformationonselectedsmallpelagicfishspeciesinEastAfrica .................... 24

Table2: Summaryframesurveydataforring-netsinmainlandTanzania ...................................... 38

Table3: FramesurveydataforZanzibar ........................................................................................ 43

21

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

1. IntroductiontothesmallpelagicfisheriesofTanzania

Thiscasestudywillfocusonagroupoffishfamilies,generaandspeciesthataretypicallyreferredtoassmallpelagicfish,andthefisheriesforthesespeciesoffthecoastoftheURT.ItwillfocusonClupeidae(herrings,sardinesandsprats),Dussumieriidae(roundherrings)andEngraulidae(anchovies)andincludesZanzibarandmainlandTanzania,eventhoughinshorefisheriesmanagementisundertakenindependentlybythetwopartnersintheURT.ThemanagementofEEZfisheriesisundertakenjointlybythepartners,undertheauspicesoftheDeepSeaFishingAuthority(DSFA).

1.1. The marine environment of the WIOTheprincipleoceancurrentsoftheWIOarepresentedinFigure1(forthesoutheastmonsoon)andFigure2(forthenortheastmonsoon).Themajorcurrentthatflowsthroughouttheyearisthewestward-flowingSEClocatedinabandatapproximately15to20°S.TheSECisdrivenbyanumberofprocesses,includingforcingbytheITFand−duringthesoutheastmonsoon−byatmosphericprocessesassociatedwiththeheatingoftheIndian/SouthAsianlandmassandbyequatorialoceanicheatingandtheformationoftheHadley cells.1

1. e.g. Han et al.,2006;Schottet al.,2009.

Figure1:Representationofcurrentsduringthesoutheastmonsoon(source:adaptedfromSchottet al.,2009)

22

Figure2:Representationofcurrentsduringthenortheastmonsoon(source:adaptedfromSchottet al.,2009)

Duringtheborealsummer,withsignificantheatingoftheIndiansubcontinentandAsia,theSECisatitsstrongest,reachingvelocitiesofapproximately1.5–2.0m/s.2InFigure1theSECisseentobedeflectedbothtothenorth(NEMC)andtothesouthofMadagascar(SEMC).ItimpactsonthecoastofAfricaaroundsouthernTanzania,whereitsplitstoformtheEastAfricanCoastalCurrent(EACC)flowingnorth,andtheMozambiqueCurrentflowingsouthintotheMozambiqueChanneltoformtheAgulhasCurrent.

TheEACCcontinuestoflownorth,subsequentlyformingtheSomaliCurrent(SC)alongthecoastasaresultofthestrongairflowtowardstheIndiansubcontinent.Strongcoastalgyres(SocotraGyreandGreatWhirl)alsodevelopwithintheSCandupwellingtakesplaceoffthecoastofSomalia(wedgeshapes).TheEACCeventuallyturnseasttoformaneasterly-flowingcurrentnorthoftheEquator.

Inthenortheastmonsoonconfiguration,duringtheborealwinter,themonsoonreversesasaresultofsignificantcoolingoftheIndiansubcontinentandAsia.TheSEC(andthesoutheasttrades)thereforealsoweakentoameanvelocityofapproximately0.5m/s,whiletheSCeffectivelyreversesandcanflowsouthasfarasabout4°S,beforebothcurrentsturneastandformtheSouthEquatorialcountercurrent(SECC).Note that during the northeast monsoon, the direction of the meridional Ekman transport reverses.

1.2. Small pelagic fish species diversityThesmallpelagicfishspeciesofcoastalEastAfrica(includingTanzania),alongwithsomeaspectsoffisheriesforsmallpelagicfish,werefirstdescribedbyLosse(1964)andWhitehead(1965;1972).Thefisheriesforthesespeciesweresubsequentlydescribed,tovaryingdegreesofdetail,byNzioka(1981),

2. ASCLMEProject,2012.

23

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Iverson et al.(1984),NhwaniandBianchi(1988),Nhwani(1988),NhwaniandMakwaia(1988),JiddawiandPandu(1988)andDeSousa(1988);withcontributionsalsomadebyBrownell(1982),Johnsen(1984),MakwaiaandNhwani(1992),JiddawiandÖhman(2002),Nyunjaet al.(2006),Maina(2012)andCochraneandJapp(2012).

Losse’smajorcontributionwasmadeundertheauspicesofthenowdefunctEastAfricanMarineFisheriesResearchOrganization(EAMFRO)whichwasbasedinZanzibar.ThestudiesidentifiedrepresentativesofthemainsmallpelagicfamiliesoffthecoastofEastAfricaandsomeaspectsoftheirspatialandseasonaldistribution,andtheirfisheries.Overall,Losseidentified95smallpelagicspeciesthatwerecaughtinthevariouscommercialandartisanalpurseseine/ring-net/dip-netfisheriesintheregion,with19ofthe95speciesbeingreportedasabundant.ThefirstsurveysoffisheriesresourceabundanceoffTanzania’scoastwereundertakenin1976and1977bytheR/VProfessor Mesyatsev.Smallpelagicfishspecieswereincludedinthesurveys.Analysesofdatageneratedfromthisacousticsurveysuggestedanoverallbiomass estimate of 43 000 tonnes.3FurtherfisheriessurveyswereundertakenbyR/VDr Fridtjof Nansen in1982and1983,andtheseyieldedtotalbiomassestimates(acrossallfamilies,includingsmallpelagicfish)ofbetween90000tonnesand170000tonnes,althoughnodetailedestimateswereprovidedforsmallpelagicfish.TrawlsurveysconductedbytheDr Fridtjof Nansenidentifiedthemostabundantsmallpelagic species as Amblygaster sirm, Sardinella gibbosa, S. albella and S. leiogaster, and a number of scads(Decapturus maruadsi, D. macrosoma, and Atule mate). The anchovy Stolephorous punctifer was importantintrawlsurveysconductedintheZanzibarChannel.4GiventhatthefirstoftheEastAfricansurveyswascarriedout38yearsagoandthatfluctuationsinbiomassareafeatureofsmallpelagicfishspecies,usingtheestimatesofthe1970sasabasisforcurrentdaysmallpelagicfisherymanagementwouldbeinappropriate.AlistoftheprincipalsmallpelagicfishspeciesfoundoffEastAfricaispresentedinTable1.ItisbasedontheworkofLosse(opcit.),withperiodsofparticularabundanceindicatedwithan“X”.

Table 1: SummaryinformationonselectedsmallpelagicfishspeciesinEastAfrica

SpeciesMonth

observations from Losse (1964)nE monsoon SE monsoono n d J F M a M J J a S

Dussumieria acuta (Rainbowsardine) X X X X X Shallowwaterbanks16−36m;notinbays,

estuaries, etc.Herklotsichthys quadrimaculatus (Spottedherring)

X X X X X Vicinityofcoralreefareaswhereitwasoccasionally abundant, rare elsewhere.

H. spilurus (Commonherring) X X X X X

Mainly in bays, harbours and the shallow watersveryclosetotheshore.Anereticspecies which rarely extends seawards.

Sardinella longiceps (Indianoilsardine) X X X X X

Inwaters1−40mindepth,inbaysandovershallow banks, not found elsewhere in this area;occurrencemaybeassociatedwiththeSomali Current during the NE monsoon.

Sardinella albella (Whitesardinella) X X X X

Inshallowbays(juveniles)inthevicinityofestuaries,butalsofurtheroffshore(adultsonly) in waters 40 m in depth. Present throughout the year and abundant in the ZanzibarChannelduringJuly,AugustandafterrainyseasonsinAprilandNovember.

3. Venema,1984,quotedinJiddawi&Pandu,1988;Nhwani,1988.4. Iverson et al.,1984.

24

Month

SpeciesnE monsoon SE monsoon

observations from Losse (1964)o n d J F M a M J J a S

Sardinella gibbosa (Goldstripesardinella)

X X X X X X

Is the most abundant sardine in the East Africanregionandoccurredthroughouttheyear;seasonalabundancewasmarkedduring the NE monsoon and also during and following the rainy seasons.

Amblygaster sirm (Spottedsardinella) X X X X

AdultfishappearedinNovemberanddepartedbeforeMarch,juvenilesremainedinthe coastal waters in small numbers.

Pellona ditchela (Indianpellona) X X X X

Apparentlyconfinedtowatersofloweredsalinity;inestuaries,mangroveareas;seasonally abundant during the latter part of the SE monsoon, also further offshore during and following the rainy seasons.

Encrasicholina punctifer(alsoknown as S. buccaneeri) (Buccaneeranchovy)

X X X X X X XOccurred throughout the year but was seasonally abundant in the surface waters close to the shore during the NE monsoon and followingtheheavyrainsinApril/May.

Engraulis indicus (Indiananchovy) X X X X X

EntireEastAfricancoast,intheshallowwaterswithinthe20fathom(37m)contour;inbays,lagoonsandharbours(Mombasa).Seasonally abundant during the NE monsoon when it appeared close to the shore.

Engraulis heteroloba (Long-head anchovy)

X X X X X X X

EntireEastAfricancoast,inshallowwaterswithinthe100fathom(183m)contour,in bays, harbours and lagoons. Occurred throughout the year but seasonally abundant in surface waters close to the shore in NE monsoon and following the heavy rains in April/May.

Stolephorus commersonii (Commerson’sanchovy)

X X X X X X X

EntireEastAfricancoast.Entirelyconfinedtoestuarine waters and mangrove lagoons, not found elsewhere in this area. The species was seasonally abundant during the NE monsoon and also following the short and long rains.

1.3. The fisheryRelativelylittleisknownaboutthesmallpelagicfisheryofTanzania(neitherthemainlandnortheZanzibarifishery)andthisrepresentsaseriouschallengetounderstandingitspotentialsensitivitytoclimatechange.Byimplication,theagenciesresponsibleforthemanagementofthefishery(whoarepartof,andthereforestakeholdersin,thefishery)arelikelytobeinsensitivetochangestakingplaceinthefisheryasaresultof climate stimuli, simply because they would be largely unaware of them.

ThelackofknowledgeofthesmallpelagicfisheryreflectsthesomewhatparlousnatureofthecollectionoffisheriesstatisticsinTanzaniaingeneral.5Morespecificallykeyinformation,suchasforcatchandeffort, seasonality and geographic scope is scarce, generally lacking in accurate resolution to the species level(orperhapsevengenus)andisunreliable.Similarly,thereismoreorlessnoknowledgeofthepopulationdynamicsofsmallpelagicfish,noroftheirmigrationsorconnectivitywithneighbouring

5. VanderElstet al.2005;Jacquet&Zeller,2007.

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

countries(e.g.KenyaandMozambique).6TheextentoftheproblemsfacedbythefisheriesagenciesofTanzaniainestimatingtheirnationalmarinefisherieslandingswashighlightedbyJacquetandZeller(opcit.)throughtheirreconstructionofestimatesofactualtotalcatches;theirfindingssuggestapproximately100 percent under reporting in the year 2000, and indications of diverging estimates from 2000 to 2005 (Figure3).Therearealsofewdataonthehistoricalresponsesofthefishery,e.g.howfishers,investorsinthefisheryortradershaveadaptedtonaturalfluctuationsinabundance.Noraretheredataonhowchanges in abundance have affected consumers of small pelagic species.

This problem persists regardless of the many programmes that have attempted to address the issue in recent decades. In spite of a general lack of data, a very small number of discrete pockets of reasonably goodgeneralfisheriesdatahavebeen,orcontinuetobe,generated.Forexample,datageneratedduringthesecondhalfoftheTangaCoastalZoneConserv-ationandDevelopmentProgramme(TCZCDP)inTangaRegion(1996to2004),undertheongoingFisheriesDivision(FD)/WorldwideFundforNature(WWF)programmeinRufijiandMafiaDistricts(2006topresent)andthroughvariousfocusedresearchor academic studies.

TheestimatedcatchesofsmallpelagicspeciesformainlandTanzaniain1988and2010arepresentedinFigure 4.

6. Anon,2013.

Figure3:AreconstructionofTanzania’smarinefisheriescatch(source:redrawnfromJacquet&Zeller,2007)

Figure4:Weightoflandings(tonnes)ofsmallpelagicfishbyregion(1988and2010)(source:FisheriesDevelopment Division, FDD)

26

The contribution of small pelagic fish to the overall tonnagelandedinZanzibar,and a summary of a 12-year time series of catch data is presented in Figure 5.

The fishing gearInTanzania, themajorityofsmallpelagicfishing isconducted with ring-nets and lights.Thefisherybeganin1961(Losse,1964).Thisgearis also referred to as “purse seine” in some literature and wasknownas the“Greekmethod”, because it was introducedbyGreekfishers.7 Fishing takes place at night and mainly during the new moon phase, although some smaller, local vessels may operate during the full moon periods as well. Fishing duringthenewmoonphaseisatleastpartlydrivenbytherelativelyhigherabundanceofzooplanktonatthis time of the lunar cycle8althoughpressurelamps,usedtoattractfish,arealsomoreeffectiveagainstdarkskies.Thereissomeleveloffishingusingbeachseinesandfencetraps.Numbersoffence-traps(Uzio) are recorded in frame surveys but beach seines are probably under reported because they are illegal. Monitoringofcatchestakenbythesegearsislogisticallydifficultandconsequentlyrare,andasaresultthe catch composition is largely unknown.

AnearlyreportoftheProjectfortheDevelopmentandManagementofFisheriesintheSouthWestIndianOcean(SWIOP)describedthesmallpelagicfisheryasbeingsemi-industrial,withtheparastatalTanzaniaFishingCorporation(TAFICO)deployingsevenvesselsoffthemainlandandtheZanzibarFishingCorporation(ZAFICO)deployingsixoffZanzibar;withthemothervesselsbeing8to20minlengthoverall(LOA)andthelampdinghies4mLOA.9TAFICOalsooperatedaprawnfishingtrawlerfleet.Thering-netsusedinthisoperationwere170mlongby30mdeep.Thering-netsofTAFICO’ssmallpelagicfishingfleetwereupto400minlengthand65mdeep(Brownell,1982).JiddawiandPandu(1988)reportedontheZanzibarring-netfisheryandnotedthatatypicalring-netwasapproximately115minlength,andabout15mindepth.Nhwani(opcit.)reportedthedimensionsas100to150minlength,withthesame15mdepth.Atthetimeofthesereports,thesmallsemi-industrialfisherydescribedbyBrownellwas apparently still operational.

Arecent(2011)guidebooktotheartisanalfishinggearsofKenya(wherering-netsareusedinsimilarwaysandwheremigratoryTanzanianfisherssometimesoperate)producedbyCoastalOceansResearchandDevelopment−IndianOcean(CORDIO)10 provides an up-to-date description of a typical ring-net (Figure6).

The depth of the nets reported by Samoilys et al. are similar to those described by Jiddawi and Pandu but smaller than those reported by Brownell, with dimensions of 15 to 30 m. The length range reported

7. Nhwani&Makwaia,1988.8. Losse,opcit.;Subramaniam,1988.9. Nhwani,1988.10. Samoilys et al., 2011.

Figure5:Landingsofsmallpelagicfish(andtotalcatch),Zanzibar2000to2012(source:DFMR,2014)

27

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

in the CORDIO guidebook wasfrom90to300m,withameshsizerangeof1.2to7.6 cm. Presumably, there isanoptimalsizeofring-net that balances weight, volume and ease of setting/retrieving against catching effectiveness and thus the economics of a fishing event.

2. The WIo marine environment and its exposure to climate change2.1 Atmosphere and climateThe evidence from observations and from climate modelling studies suggests that Hadley cells are widening.11Thenorthernedge(whereairisheatedandrises),identifiedbytheITCZ,remainslockedintheequatorialregion(althoughitspreciselocationvarieswithseason).However,thesouthernedge,wherecoolingairdescends,isextendingfurthersouthfromthenormallocationaround30°S,andthedatasuggestthatithasmovedtwotothreedegreessouthsincethe1980s.TheIPPC(2013)presenteddataonthepolewardmovementofthesoutherntropicaledge(wherethenowcoolerairsinksanddissipates heat), although it notes that “large interannual-to-decadal variability is found in the strength oftheHadley(andWalkercirculation)”andthereforeitsconfidenceinthisanalysiswasdeemed“low”.The implications of a southward movement of the Hadley cell’s descending arm is increased heat transfer at higher latitudes and a decreasing meridional pressure gradient and hence decreasing trade winds.12 Solomon et al.(2007)citedLee(2004)whoproposedthat“upper-oceanwarminginthesouthIndian Ocean can be attributed to a reduction in the southeast trade winds and associated decrease in the southward transport of heat from the tropics to the subtropics”. Note that Lee has since updated the2004analysis(1993to2000)andthemorerecentresults(fortheperiod2000to2006)appeartoindicate that the behaviour of the SEC may be part of a decadal cycle of meridional ocean circulation, inboththePacificandtheIndianOceans,theexplanationforwhich“needsfurtherinvestigation”.13 In Lee’s most recent analysis, the southeast trades are reported as having strengthened once more, a result supported by other researchers.14Tanzaniaisadownwellingareaforreasonsthatwillbeexplainedin Section 2.2 and therefore changes to the southeast trades might feasibly reduce the strength of that downwelling.However,bythesametoken,windstressmayalsoleadtoincreasedoceanstratification,thereby reducing the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth.

Freshwater influx (rainfall) and terrigenous nutrient supplyRainfallandsubsequentfreshwaterinfluxintocoastalwatersareimportantforlocalproductivityofsmallpelagicfish.ThereareeightmainriversthatdischargeintoTanzania’scoastalwaters15 with a total basin drainage estimated at 438 000 km2(Figure7).ThemajorriveroutflowsareinthenorthernTangaRegion,whichbordersKenya,(thePanganiandWamirivers);thecentralCoast/PwaniRegion(theRuvuandtheRufiji,thelatterbeingthelargestriverinTanzaniawithacatchmentareaof177429km2, which is

11. e.g. Taylor et al.,2012;Hanet al., 2010.12. Vecchiet al., 2006.13. Lee,2009.14. Backenberg et al., 2012.15. Bwathondi&Mwamsojo,1993.

Figure6:AtypicalEastAfricanring-netvesselwithnets(source:Samoilyset al., 2011)

28

approximately20percentofthesurfaceareaofTanzania);andinLindiRegion(theMatandu,MbwemkuruandtheLukeledi).TheRuvumaRiver,inMtwaraRegion,formstheborderwithMozambiquetothesouth.

TherainfallofcentralandeasternTanzaniaintothesemajorwatershedsislowduringthesoutheastmonsoon months of May/June through to September/October.Themajorrainsfallduringthenortheastmonsoon, with the so-called “short rains” in the months of October and November, and the main wet season being from February/March to May, as thenortheastmonsoon subsides (Figure8).Theextentofthefreshwateroutflowinthelatterpart of the northeast monsoon is substantial, with 65to85percentoftheRufijiRiver’sdischarge,for example, taking place between February and June16andwithmaximumfloodflowsof14000m3/sec.17ThemeanannualdischargeoftheRufijiRiver is estimated at 3 500 km3. Data for the Pangani Riversuggestsameanmonthlyflowof309m3 to 509m3, with a mean total annual run-off estimated at 84 km3.18Shagude(2005)suggestedthesedimentloadoftheRufijiRiverrangedfrom15to25milliontonnes/year. Run-off from the Ruvuma River was estimated at 15 km3.Shagude(2005)suggestedthatrainfallintheRufijiBasin“isassociatedwithquasibiennialoscillation(QBO)andENSOinthespectralbands 1.5 to 3 years and 3 to 8 years respectively. High frequency spectral bands are associated with annual and seasonal cycles e.g. 12 months, 6 months and 4 months”.

TheoutflowfromTanzania’sriverscancausesignificantshort-termreductionsinsalinityofcoastalwaters19 and provide large volumes of sediment input.

Potential effects of climate changePreliminary analyses provided by the IPCC (2013)forchangesinrainfallacrossEastAfrica,bymajorseason,arepresentedinFigure9(forthesoutheastmonsoon)andFigure10 (for thenortheastmonsoon).Rather more significant increases are proposed for the northeast monsoon, depending on the reference climate model. Ausefulvisualizationofthegeographyofthe expected changes, based on the same climate models, is available on the World Bank’sClimateKnowledgePortal(http://climateknowledgeportal.climatewizard.org/).Amapoftheoutputs,redrawnfor

16. Iverson et al.,1984;Shagude,2004.17. RufijiRiverBasinBoard.18. Shagude, 2004.19. Nyandwi & Dubi, 2001.

Figure8:MeanmonthlyrainfallforDaresSalaam1990to2009(source:redrawnfromWorldBankClimateChangeKnowledge Portal)

Figure7:MajorcoastalriversofTanzania

29

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Figure9:Precipitationchanges (southeastmonsoon)inEastAfrica (source:IPCC,2013)

Figure 10: Precipitation changes (NEmonsoon)inEastAfrica (source:IPCC,2013)

Figure 11: Predicted precipitation for coastal Tanzania(source:redrawnfromWorldBankClimate Change Portal)

Tanzania,ispresentedinFigure11.Notethat the models suggest an increase in precipitation in the watersheds of some of themajorriversthatdrainintothewesternIndian Ocean, with concomitant increases in water discharge and presumably sediment load.

30

2.2 Ocean circulation and thermal dynamicsWIO sea surface temperatures (SST)Figure12presentsmapsofmeanseasurfacetemperatures(SST)overtheperiod1998to2002,withquarterlyperiodsindicated(i.e.OND=October,November,December).Thefigurecanbereadinclockwiseorder;thereforethetwomapsatthetopofthefigurelargelycorrespondtothewarmeraustralsummer(theapproximateperiodofthenortheastmonsoon),andthemapsonthebottomofthefiguretothecooleraustralwinter(approximateperiodofthesoutheastmonsoon).

Potential effects of climate changeAnumberofresearchershavereportedon the trend towards increased mean SST in the Indian Ocean.20TheIPCC(2013)reported that “The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM)hasastrongwarmingtrend(significantat1percentsincethemiddleof the20thcentury)”.Apictureof thefrequencyofSSTanomaliessince1970ispresented in Figure 13.

20. e.g. Han et al.,2006;Luffman,2007;Zhouet al.,2008;Caiet al., 2008.

Figure12:SeasonalSSTfortheIndianOcean1998to2002(source:Luffman,2007)

Figure13:SSTanomalies(relativeto1970–2005climatology)(source:redrawnfromSmith&Reynolds,2005)

31

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Thecausesofthiswarmingarecomplex,however.Forexample,Xieet al.(2002)suggestedthattheSSTvariabilityinthewesterntropicalSouthIndianOcean(upto50percentofthetotalvarianceincertainseasons) is not locally forced, but is instead a result of oceanic subsurface Rossby waves propagating from the east, which in turn are forced by ENSO. Furthermore, a phenomenon known as OISOs in the SEC are also believed to be important in determining SST. OISOs propagate in the southeastern Indian Ocean as a result of baroclinic instability in the eastern Indian Ocean, and are then transmitted westward acrosstheIndianOcean(asRossbywaves)throughtheSEC.OSIOsarebelievedtocontributemoretoSSTvariabilitythansurfaceheatfluxes.OISOsarealsokeydeterminantsofrainfallanomaliesinEastAfrica(Zhouet al.,2008.opcit.)MeyerandWeerts(2009)reportedthatlong-termvariabilityintheITFfromthePacificOcean“maybeassociatedwithchangesinSSTinthetropicalIndianOcean”andindeedthe baroclinic stability that leads to OSIOs is itself strongly forced by the ITF.

ThepossibleeffectoftheapparentreducedstrengthofthesoutheasttradeswasanalysedbyAloryandMeyers(2009),whoscrutinizedhistoricaldataandmodeloutputs.Theysuggestedthatthemaincauseofthe Indian Ocean surface warming was a decrease in the subequatorial upwelling related to a slowdown of the southeast trades-driven Ekman pumping. To refer to Solomon et al.’scitingofLee(2004)oncemore, “upper-ocean warming in the south Indian Ocean can be attributed to a reduction in the southeast trade winds and associated decrease in the southward transport of heat from the tropics to the subtropics”. In addition, Schott et al.(2009)statedthata20-yeartimeseriesofannualmeanheatfluxesindicatesthatthenetheatfluxintheIndianOceanhasnotincreased,andwentontosuggestthatoceandynamicsplay a more important role than previously understood in the observed warming trend. For example, one potential explanatory factor for SST anomalies involves teleconnections between the Indian Ocean and thePacificOcean’sElNiñophenomenon(Figure14).

Ekman transportForTanzania’scoastalwaters,locatedinawesternboundarysystem,theoutcomeoftheinteractionbetween the prevailing southeast trade winds and the Ekman transport phenomenon is downwelling (so-called“Ekmanpumping”),ratherthanthemoreproductiveupwellingofeasternboundarysystems,suchasthoseoffChileandPeru,andWestAfrica,forexample.Ontheotherhand,inthenorthernhemispherecoastal regions of Kenya and Somalia, the onset of the southeast trade winds leads to upwelling. This upwelling falters during the northeast monsoon, although there may be a limited short-lived upwelling featureinsouthernKenyaandnorthernTanzania(Tangaregion)asaresultofthesameEkmanwindandcurrent interaction. It is not clear whether the Ekman transport effect leads to upwelling in the deep water off the west coast of Pemba Island.

Figure14:IndianOceanSSTanomaliesandsizeofcorrelationwithElNiñoeventsinthePacificOcean(source:redrawnfromSchottet al.,2009)

32

Localized featuresResearchbyMahongoandShagude(2014)identifiedtheexistenceofaTanzanianeddy(Figure15).Theinteresting feature of the eddy is that it should lead tolocalizedupwellingofnutrient-richcolderwaters,whichmaythenbedistributedintotheZanzibarandPemba Channels through SEC current branches. The process for such a forced eddy upwelling are well known and are well described by physics, while their potential role in recruitment of, for example, sardines isdescribedbyMacCall (2002)anddevelopedfurtherbyBakun(2010).

Potential effects of climate changeAny reduced strength in the southeast trades,and subsequently the strengthof theSEC (therole of the ITF notwithstanding) may reduce the strengthandthedegreeofEkmantransport(coastaldownwelling), but it has also been noted previously that the southeast trades may actually be in cycle and therefore previously reported weakening may not be actually be the case.

2.3 Primary productivityNarvekarandKumar(2009)describedtheequatorialIndianOceanasa“biologicaldesert”.Althoughthereissomelimitedsubequatorialopenoceanupwelling,between5°Sand10°S−asaresultofEkmantransport−theparticularorientationofprevailingwindsandcurrentspreventsanysubstantialequatorialupwelling.MahongoandShagude(2013)describedthecoastalwatersofTanzaniaas‘nutrient-poormid-ocean water resulting in low biological productivity along the coast’ and comment has already been made on the effect of Ekman transport in the western boundary currents of the southern hemisphere leading to downwelling, rather than the more productive upwelling. Having said that, there is a pronounced seasonality in primary productivity, as measured by chlorophyll-a pigment concentrations, across a broad expanse of the WIO. Higher levels of primary productivity are associated with the southeast monsoon, during which time the mixed layer increases in depth as a result of increased interaction between the southeast trade windsandtheSEC(Figure16).However,McClanahan reported the highest plankton biomass during the northeast monsoon21 for Kenya, which is more significantlyinfluencedbythesouth-flowingSomaliCurrentatthattime[seethe“Summer(NEmonsoon)”framein

21. McClanahan,1988.

Figure 16: Seasonal variations in chlorophyll-a,WIO(source:SeaWifs)

Figure15:TanzanianeddyduringtheSEmonsoon(source:MahongoandShaghude,2014)

33

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Figure12].Asnotedpreviously,theSomaliCurrentreachesasfarsouthas4°S,andwouldleadtosomeupwellinginthezonesouthoftheequator.

Lugomela et al.(2001)citinganumberofotherauthors22 reported a similar picture, with the highest planktonicbiomassforTanzania’scoastalwatersobservedduringthenortheastmonsoon.Lugomelaand his colleagues argued that this was as a result of the combined effects of a number of oceanographic and atmospheric conditions. For example, during the northeast monsoon a more stable water column develops that provides more optimal conditions for phytoplankton growth. Residence time of the water overthecontinentalshelfisincreased,againpromotingenhancedgrowthconditionsforplankton(andzooplankton).And,thenortheastmonsoonistheperiodofhighestrainfallinTanzania,leadingtolocalincreases in the supply of terrigenous nutrients, including phosphorus, whose availability can limit primary productivity.Themajoroceanicsourceofphosphorusisriverineinputs.23Alltheseobservationsarefocusedverymuchonthenearshorecoastalzone,thelocationofthesmallpelagicfisheryinTanzania,and do not apply to the open ocean, as is clear from the SeaWifs observations presented in Figure 12. The pulse in coastal plankton biomass during the northeast monsoon in turn promotes an increase in theabundanceofzooplankton,particularlyfromaroundFebruary(latenortheastmonsoon)throughtoAugust(thesoutheastmonsoon);thereturnofthesoutheastmonsoonandtheincreaseinthemixedlayerdepth(MLD)actstorecyclesomeofthenutrients,includingphosphorus.24

3. Thesensitivityofthesmallpelagicfishcomponentofthe ecosystem

3.1 Atmosphere and climate effectsThe observations here will be limited to the potential effects on small pelagic species of changes in atmosphericconditions,principallytheamountofprecipitationforecastforEastAfrica.However,inadditiontoprecipitation,theremaybeanumberofclimaterelatedmodificationsintheatmosphericandclimateconditionsinthewiderIndianOcean(aswellasforcingfromtheIODandfromthePacificOcean, through ENSO, etc.) that may indirectly impact the marine environment through effects on ocean thermal dynamics and circulation. These are discussed under the heading "Ocean thermal dynamics and circulation", below.

It was not possible to determine estimates of the expected increased volume of river discharge from the available literature, and much will depend on the construction of additional dams for hydro-electric power generation and the off-take for large-scale irrigation of farmland, in particular in the watershed oftheRufijiRiver.Thereis,however−allthingsbeingequal−likelytobeanincreaseddeliveryofterrigenousnutrientstoTanzania’scoastalwaters,whichwouldleadtoanincreaseintheprimaryproductivity available to small pelagic species. The relationship between river discharge, nutrient supply and concentrations of chlorophyll-a, was discussed by Lugomela et al.(opcit.)andbyreferencesreportedtherein.Theincreasedproductivityislikelytofeedthroughthefoodchainandbenefitpopulationsofsmallpelagicfish;theremaybemorebenefitforEngraulidaethanClupeidae,owingtotheformer’spreference for inshore and estuarine habitats. Increased rainfall will also cause local reductions in salinity.And,thereissomeevidencefromsmallpelagicfisheriesinneighbouringKenya,wheresardinecatches(predominately S. gibbosa and A. sirm) positively correlated with the heavy rains associated with the northeast monsoon.25 However, this observation is complicated by the relatively improved access tofishinggroundsduringthisperiodofcalmerseasandthelikelyhigherproductivityassociatedwithseasonalupwellingonthenorthernbanksofKenya.Twatwaandcolleagues(2005)observedthatonthe

22. e.g.Bryceson,1977;Kithekaet al.,1996.23. Paytan & McLaughlin, 2007.24. Lugomela,opcit.;Paytan&McLaughlin,opcit.25. Nyandwi&Dubi,2001;Wakwabia,1981.

34

AgulhasBankincreasedSSTandhighersalinity(andmixedlayerdepth)waspositivelycorrelatedwithhigher abundance of anchovy spawning biomass, with sardine spawning biomass positively correlated with lower SST and low salinity.

On the other hand, increased rainfall may be irregular and arrive in the form of storms, rather than being an evenly distributed increase in the mean seasonal precipitation level, the point being that the timing of rainfall anomalies, the increase in the supply of nutrients and any subsequent increase in primary productivity,maynotnecessarilymatchthelifecycleofsmallpelagicfishpopulations.26

3.2 Ocean thermal dynamics and circulationCurrents and the thermoclineMention has been made of the potential changes in the souteast trades and the link to the strength of the SECaswellasthepresenceofalargeeddyoffthecoastofTanzania.Theprocessesforsuchaforcededdyupwelling are well known and are described by physics, while their role in recruitment of, for example, sardines,isdescribedbyMacCall(2002)andfurtherdevelopedbyBakun(2010).ChangesinthestrengthoftheSEC(whetherclimatechange-inducedincreases,orasaresultofnaturaldecadalcycles),andhencethe strength of the eddy, would presumably have impacts on larval retention and reproductive success. Larval retention would presumably increase if the strength of the eddy increased and likewise the strength of any local upwelling associated with the eddy.27AdeclineintheoverallstrengthofthesoutheasttradesandthustheSEC(aspostulatedbyanumberofauthors),wouldlikelyreducethesizeoftheeddyandthecorollary would be reduced retention of larvae.

The strength of the southeast trades and SEC is also critical for determining the depth of the mixed layer andthethermocline.Againthiscanhavebothpositiveandnegativeeffects.Increasedwindstrength,leadingtoashallowermixedlayerandincreasedstratificationofwatersabovethethermocline,canreducenutrient availability and recycling and thus impact negatively on primary productivity. On the other hand, a deepening of the mixed layer would increase the vertical distribution of limited nutrients beyond the “critical depth” for phytoplankton production, leading to reduced production.28

4. The socio-economic context

Inprevioussections,apicturehasbeenbuilt-upofafisherybasedonahighlydynamicgroupofspecieswhichalsoplayacentralroleincoastalmarineecosystems.Smallpelagicfishareparticularlyabundantintheupwellingzonesfoundontheeasternboundariesofoceans,suchasinthePacificOcean,offthecoasts of Peru and Chile. However, while they appear to be far less abundant in the less productive, downwelledwatersoffthe(westernboundary)coastofTanzania,theavailabledata−tobepresentedinthissection−suggeststhattheyhave,atleastuntilrecently,contributedanimportantproportionoftheoverallcatchofTanzania’scoastalmarinefisheries,withfiguresofupto27percentoftotallandings(byweight)quotedfromasrecentlyasthemid-2000sonZanzibar.Thissectionwilldealwiththesocio-economic component of the assessment framework.

4.1 Ecological vulnerabilityTheprevioussectionshavedescribed(albeitinbrief)thevariousmechanismsthroughwhichthemarineecologyoftheWIO,includingthecoastalzone,maybeexposedtoclimatechangeandthesensitivityofthe small pelagic ecosystem to climate, and therefore to climate change. Some qualitative observations havealsobeenmadeontherecoverypotential/adaptivecapacityofsmallpelagicspecies.Atthisstage,avulnerabilityassessmentpractitionerwouldideallybringthesethreecomponents(ecologicalexposure,

26. Cushing,1974;Bakun,2010.27. Bakun, 2010.28. Sverdrup,1953.

35

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

sensitivity and recovery potential/adaptive capacity) together under an umbrella term of ecological vulnerability and develop a metric to describe this ecological vulnerability. While establishing metrics of these components is appealing, it may be futile in certain circumstances. In this particular case it is arguedthatcautionisrequiredbecauseoftheuncertaintiesrelatedtoclimatechangeeffects−asopposedtonaturalclimate(andoceanographic)variability−thecomplexityofthemarineecosystem,andthecriticallackofinformationontheecologyofthesmallpelagicspeciesinthewatersoftheURT.ThereforenoattempttodevelopaVAwillbemadeinthisparticularstudy.

4.2 Socio-economic sensitivityThe assessment will therefore move directly on to examining the sensitivity of the socio-economic component and how that may affect the overall vulnerability of the small pelagic ecosystem, starting withobservationsonthefisherymanagementcontext.Thepurposeofthissectionistohighlightpartsofthehistoryofthefisheryandtodrawattentiontothelackofinformationonitscurrentstatus.Suchalackconstrainseffortstoincreasetheresilienceofthefisheryinthecontextofclimatechangeanditsfuturesustainable management in general.

Tanzania mainlandNhwani(opcit.)indicatedatotalcatchof5400tonnesof“smallpelagicfishes”in1977(representing11.6percentofthetotalannualmarinefishcatchofabout46550tonnes.By1986,thetotalcatchofsmallpelagicfish(termed“sardines”byNhwani)wasreportedtobeapproximately2070tonnesforDaresSalaam, with the commercial vessels landings 720 tonnes and artisanal vessels landing 1 350 tonnes. The total estimated catch of small pelagics along the entire coast was reported by Nhwani to be in the region of4800tonnes,withafurther2250tonnesof“smallmackerels”.Nhwaniseemedtoimplythatby1988theTanzaniamainlandsemi-industrialring-netfleetwasonlyfishingaroundDaresSalaamwithtwosteel-hulledvesselsof12mand20mLOA.

Figure17:HistoricalsmallpelagicfishinggroundsaroundDaresSalaam(source:redrawnfromNhwani&Makwaia,1988)

36

Figure17presentsthemainfishinggrounds(hatchedshading)aroundDaresSalaamduringthe1980s,asidentifiedbyNhwaniandMakwaia(opcit.),withSindaIslandaccountingfor40percentofthefishingeffortfortheyearof1986andMsasaniBay19percent.Nhwani(1988)reportedthespeciescompositionofcatchesfromthecommercialTAFICOvessels(albeitonlyfortheperiodOctobertoMarchduringthe northeast monsoon) to be Amblygaster sirm(51percent),Sardinella gibbosa(19percent)andthecarangid, Decapterus maruadsi(11percent).NhwanialsoreportedonsomeTAFICOcatchdatafromTanga(1981),wherethespeciescompositionwas73percentClupeidae,andjust1percentEngraulidae.Catch composition data for traditional mashua vessels off Dar es Salaam29 indicated S. gibbosa dominated the catch, with 41 percent of the landings, A. sirm at 24 percent, Herklotsichthys punctatus at 5 percent and Sardinella albella at 1 percent.

Bythelate1980sthesemi-industrialfisheryhadceasedtooperate.Nospecificreportsonthereasonsforthecessationofthesemi-industrialfisheryhavebeenidentifiedsoitisnotclearwhetherthiswascausedbyadeclineintheavailabilityofresources,orifitwasduetosomeothereconomicfactornotspecificallyrelated to abundance. However, the Sunday News,reportingonthe1999bankruptcyofTAFICO,arguedthat“Thefishingoperationswererunningataheavylossduetopooradministration,poormaintenanceof boats and low productivity”.30

Bythe1990sGibbon(1997)notedthattheDaresSalaam-basedartisanalfisheryhadmovedoperationsawayfromthecoast,intothenorthernpartoftheZanzibarChannelbecause“fishstocksintheimmediatevicinity of Dar es Salaam harbour and Msasani became exhausted”. The apparent “exhaustion of the stocks”maygiveacluetothereasonwhythesemi-industrialfisheryceasedoperations,althoughthereisnospecificevidencetosupportthisconjecture.

Thefisherybythattimemainlyinvolved10to12mLOAmashua, usually equipped with either inboard or outboard engines, again with small dinghies used to deploy kerosene lamps or karabai.31Atypicalcrewcomprisedsixtosevenmen.GibbonalsoreportedthepresenceinDaresSalaamofninelargervessels(upto20mLOA),usuallywithinboardengines,alargernumberofkarabai, larger nets, and a crew of up to 10 or 12 men.

Thecurrentdistributionofthering-netfisheryisrelativelylittleknown(andevenlessisknownaboutthe range of the small pelagic stocks or the feeding or breeding migrations they might undertake). Losse(1968)reportedinsomedetailonthe distribution of each species recorded in his The Elopoid and Clupeoid fishes of East African coastal waters. In general, thesmallpelagicfishwerefoundtobedistributed according to their known environmental preferences. Therefore the Engraulidae were typically observed closer to shore, in bays and estuaries in the vicinity of the Pangani, Wami, Ruvu andRufijiRivers,southtoKilwa.NospecificmentionismadeofMtwaraandthe Ruvuma River. The Clupeids were typically observed in clearer waters, often around coral reefs, in waters of up to to 200mdepth,particularlyintheZanzibarChannelandtheMafiaChannel,southto Kilwa.

However, recent nighttime observations ofthe(illuminatedbutdistant)fleethave

29. Nhwani&Makwaia,1988.30. Sunday News, 1 January 2011.31. Gibbon,ibid.

Figure18:Approximatedistributionofring-netfishinggroundsincentralTanzania(source:redrawnfromWWF-Tz)

37

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

beenmadefromtheshoresofDaresSalaamandfromStoneTowninZanzibar(pers.obs.).ItisalsoknownthatsomeoftheDaresSalaam-basedfleettravelssouthasfarastheRufijiDeltatofish.TheWWF/FDRufiji-Mafia-KilwaSeascapeprogrammehasbeenmonitoringfishingactivitiesinthatcentralcoastal area and at least one chart has been produced showing concentrated ring-net activity targeting sardines.Theapproximatefocusforthering-netfisheryisshowninFigure18,althoughthisisbasedonlyoninterviewswithlocalfishers.32

Anadditionalsourceofinformationonthedistributionofthefisheryisthenationalfisheriesframesurveydata.Datafromthe2009and2013framesurveysarepresentedinTable2,aswellassome(regionalscale) ring-net data sourced from the 2010 FDD’s annual statistics report.33 The 2010 report contains updatedinformationprovidedbydistrictfisheriesofficers.34 There are some contradictions in the data. The2009mainlandframesurveyreportedatotalof435ring-netsforthecountry(mainland),whilethe2010FDDreportupdatedthe2009estimateto1241ring-nets,althoughtheadditionintherelevanttableofthereportisactuallyincorrectandthetotal(thesummationofdataforeachregion)shouldread959.Asecond“rapid”framesurvey35 recorded 1 148 ring-nets. The obvious feature of the data presented in Table2isnotonlythedramaticriseinnumbersofring-netsbetween2009and2010,butalsothemarkedchange in the distribution of the gear between the districts. Some of the particularly striking changes are highlighted in the table.

Table 2: Summaryframesurveydataforring-netsinmainlandTanzania(source:FisheriesDevelopmentDivision;vanderKnaap,2013)

number of ring-nets

region district 2009 Frame survey

2010 Fdd annual statistics

2013 Mini frame survey

Tanga

Mkinga 46

83

180Tanga city 36 50Muheza 1 4Pangani 2 2

Coast (Pwani)

Bagamoyo 36

417

9Mkuranga 2 0Mafia 32 43Rufiji 12 12

dar es salaamIlala 65

2350

Kinondoni 40 47Temeke 87 210

LindiKilwa 63

70150

Lindi 1 393

MtwaraMtwara Rural 4

15425

MtwaraUrban 8 23Total = 435 959 1 148

Accordingtothe2009data,thebiggesthomeportsarefoundaroundDaresSalaam,accountingfor44percentofthetotalnumberofring-nets(235/435).Althoughthetotalnumberofring-netsintheDar es Salaam area is similar across the two frame surveys, the percentage drops to 22 percent in 2013 (257/1148).Ontheotherhand,theLindiRegionincreasessignificantlybetween2009and2013,both

32. H. Machano, pers. comm., 2014.33. FDD, 2010.34. F. Sobo, pers. comm., 2014.35. VanderKnaap,2013.

38

intermsofabsolutenumbers(64to543)andasapercentageofallthering-netgearsalongthecoast (from15percentto47percent)in2013.

Animportantcaveattobearinmindwhentryingtointerpretonce-offframesurveydataisthefactthatthesmallpelagicfisheryischaracterizedbyasignificantseasonalmigration,withsomeofthefleetmigrating along the coast, usually driven by the prevailing winds, although the motivation was reported to be largely economic in the sense of market access, higher prices, etc.36

Asecondcaveatisthatthedataaresometimesinconsistentlyrecorded(pers.obs.),withsomerecordersnoting the number of panels of a net that actually make up a single piece of gear, others recording a single net.And,insomecases,gearsmayberecordedinaccuratelybydatacollectors(e.g.registeredasgill-nets,ratherthanring-nets).Afurtherconstraintisthedifficultyofsupervisingsuchframesurveys;boththesupervisionofdatacollectorsbythedistrictfisheriesofficers,andofdistrictofficersbytheFDstaffwhocommissioned the frame survey.37

There are concerns over the accuracy of contemporary data on the total catch and catch composition forsmallpelagicfishandthereareanumberofreasonsforthis.Firstly,thesamplingofcatchesacrossallfisheriescontinuestobebesetwithproblems,specificallythemaintenanceofsamplingaccuracybecause of logistical and human resource challenges.Secondly,themajorityofthe coastal districts aggregate much of the data, losing resolution before it is enteredintoadatabase.Andthirdly,theaccuratesamplingoflarge(intermsofnumbers)catchesofsmallpelagicfishcan be difficult to achieve without a well-designed catch subsampling protocol. Such a subprotocol is quite different from the usual sampling protocolemployedforotherfisherieswherenumbersofindividualfishperspecies,perfishingtrip,arerelativelylow.A final challenge is tobe ableto accurately identify the species that are being sampled. Poor quality data present enormous challenges to fisherymanagersseekingtodeliverasustainablefishery,andfortracking(andsubsequently adapting to) any impacts of climate change.

Data quality notwithstanding, a time series of small pelagic fish catches, including contemporary estimates, basedonFAOdata, is presented inFigure19.38Nhwani’s1988estimateof9200tonnesofsmallpelagicfishdoesnotmatchwiththeseFAOdata,even if the two datasets are aggregated (medium-sizedpelagiccarangidsareincluded).Furthermore,theFAOdata

36. e.g.WIOMSA,2011.37. pers.obs.;MartinvanderKnaap,pers.comm.,2014.38. Groeneveld,2013.

Figure19:Timeseriesofsmallpelagicfish(Sardinellas nei) landingsfromTanzania

Figure20:StatbasedataforsmallpelagicfishinTanzania(1989to1997)

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

forsardinellasactuallydeclinesfromabout5250tonnesin1977toabout4000tonnesin1986,whereasNhwani reported an increase in the catch from 5 250 to 7 050 tonnes. What is striking about the data is the apparentdramaticinterannualvariationsincatchsince1970,whichappearstobeatypicalfeatureofsmallpelagicfishcatches(andpopulations)globallyandunlikelytobeexplainedbysamplingproblemsalone.

AretrospectiveanalysisofsmallpelagiccatchdataforTanzania39 using data from Statbase, reported a mean annual catch of 3 561 tonnes for Dussumieria acutaovertheyears1991to1996(Figure20,solidline),althoughthismeanisnotparticularlysignificantgiventherangeofdata between <2 000 tonnes and 8 000 tonnes (SD=2349tonnes).ThedashedlineinthefigurerepresentsapartofthetimeseriesFAOdatapreviously discussed, but has been superimposed overtheStatbasedata.Thedatapointfor1990should perhaps be treated with caution and may be simple misreporting, given that the catch of D. acuta is reported to be more or less exactly the same as for all sardinellas combined, which is unlikely given the apparent diversity of the overall small pelagic species assemblage reported by Losse and by the Dr Fridtjof Nansen surveys, for example.

Note that D. acuta doesn’t feature in the species composition reported by Nhwani and Makwaia (opcit.),althoughLosse(opcit.)reportedthisspecies as being seasonally abundant during the northeast monsoon. The Fishbase distribution for the speciesispresentedinFigure21;notetheapparentabsenceinEastAfricanwaters.

ThemostrecentcatchdataforClupeidaeavailablefrommainlandTanzania’sFDDindicatesatotalmeancatchof7777tonnes(SD=209.9)overtheyears2010to2012.Perhapsthemoststrikingaspectofthedataisits lack of variation between the three years. The annual catches for this family equate to exactly 15.21 percent ofthetotalannualcatchacrossallfisheriesinmainlandTanzania.ThesedataarepresentedinFigure17.

Note that, in addition to the lack of interannual variation in total catches, there is very little interannual variationinlandingsbydistrict/municipalcouncil(MC).Thesedataarecuriouswhenoneconsiderstheapparent distribution of the ring-net fleet following the 2013 mini-frame survey(Table2).ThissurveyreportedthatLindi/Kilwadistricts(Lindiregion)had47percentofthering-netfleet(543nets), but the catch data indicates that only about 3 percent of the recent annual Clupeid catches are landed in those two districts. The three municipal councils ofDaresSalaam(Kinondoni,IllalaandTemeke) were home to 22 percent of the ring-nets,butlanded49percentofthecatch.IllalaMCactuallyreportedzeroring-net vessels in the 2013 frame survey, but reference to Figure 22 indicates the

39. Cochrane & Japp, 2012.

Figure 21: Distribution of D. acuata(source:Fishbase)

Figure22:Clupeidaecatch(tonnes)formainlandTanzaniabydistrict, 2010 to 2012

40

significanceoftheClupeidaecatchthatwasactuallylandedthere.ThesecondmostimportantdistrictwasTanga (about28percentofClupeidaelandingsbutjust4percentofthering-nets)andBagamoyo(about10percentofthelandingsand<1percentofthering-nets).ThedistrictofMkinga(borderingKenya)reported16percentofthering-netsbutonlyabout1percentofthelandings.Oneexplanationforthesefiguresistheroleofthemajormarketsinattractingfishlandings.BothTangaandIllala(DaresSalaam)aremajorpopulationcentreswithrelativelylargemarketsforfish.Thereisalsoaquestionaroundthecostandbenefitsoftransportingcatchesbyseafromnorthernfishinggrounds(e.g.Tanga)toDaresSalaam,versuslandinginTangaandtransporting by road. The questions are principally around the relative time taken and the need to maintain thequalityofthecatch.Nocontemporarydatawereidentifiedonthemovementoffishproducts,norontheuse of these products,40althoughapotentialsourceofinformationwouldbethereceiptsofinter-districtfishmovement permit fees.

Figure 23 shows changes in the geographical focus of landings from the small pelagic fishery from 1988to 2010. For example, Lindi region contributed 1293tonnesofthenationallandingsofsmallpelagicfishin1988,butby2010thishaddeclinedtojust202tonnes.What cannot be said with anyconfidenceiswhetherthisreflectsdeficienciesinthedatacollection, some underlying changeinthedistributionofsmallpelagicfishpopulationsalongthecoastor,whetheritrepresentsachangeintheindustry’soperation,wherebyfishmaybecaughtlocally,butarelandedatthemaincentres(e.g.TangaandDaresSalaam).

Biological data from the fisheryBiologicaldatafromthesmallpelagicfisheryappeartobescarce.Okera(1974)collectedmorphometric,condition and gonad development data for S. gibbosa and S. albella off the coast of Dar es Salaam from

40. e.g.Gibbon,opcit.

Figure23:Geographicalfocusoflandings(tonnes)ofsmallpelagicfishbyregion(1988and2010)(source:FDD)

Figure 24: Length-frequency distribution for S. gibbosa,1970to1971(source:redrawnfromOkera,1974)

41

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

January1969toMarch1970.Therearetwoimportantobservationsfromthisresearch.Firstly,itraisesconcernsoverthecurrentknowledgebaseonthefishery.Andsecondly,thatS. gibbosa recruited to thefisheryat4cminlength,whilelengthatfirstmaturity(Lm) for S. gibbosa was reported at 10.5 cm. S. albella appeared to have recruited at 8 cm, but with an Lmof10.5cm.AplotofOkera’slength-frequencydistribution data for S. gibbosa is presented in Figure 24, with the estimated Lmaddedtothefigure(dashedhorizontalline).

ZanzibarReliableanddetailedcatch/effortdataarealsorelativelyscarceforZanzibar,forsimilarreasonstothoseidentifiedforthemainland.Nhwani(1988)reportedthatthetotalsmallpelagiccatchin1986wasapproximately5500tonnes,withapproximately50percentbeingcaughtbythefleetoperatingoutofStoneTownonthemid-westcoastofUngujaIsland.ThetotalestimatedsmallpelagiccatchfortheentireURTin1986was13000tonnes,representingapproximately65percentoftheFAO’sestimateforthepotentialyieldofthesestocks(FAO/IOP,1979).Jiddawi&Pandu(1988)alsoprovideddetailsoncatchestimates,catchcompositionandcatchratesforthelightfisheryforsmallpelagicfishoffZanzibar.Anestimateof3000tonneswaslandedbythetraditionalfleetof25vessels,withtheZAFICOvesselscatchinganadditional200to 300 tonnes. Note the discrepancy with the Nhwani estimate of 5 500 tonnes for the same period, which is perhaps accounted for by the inclusion of small mackerel species. The data reviewed by Jiddawi & Pandu indicated a catch composition dominated by S. gibbosa(41percent)andA. sirm(30percent),thisspeciescompositionisratherdifferenttothatreportedbyNhwani&Makwaia(opcit.)forthemainland(51percentA. sirmand19percentS. gibbosa)butthismayreflectdifferencesinthetimingatwhichthesamplesweretaken.Again,thereisno D. acuata mentioned. The catch also comprised Rastrelliger kanagurta(8percent),Carangidae(6 percent) and (a ratherinsignificantcontributionfrom)Engraulidae(2percent).

Jiddawi and Öhman (2002)presented histor ical small pelagic catch data from the semi-industrialZAFICOfleetfortheperiod1971to1997andthesedata are redrawn in Figure 25. As with the mainland semi-industrialfishery,ZAFICOisnolonger in operation.

DFMRdatafor2012reportedcatchesforanchoviesandsardinesas1893and798tonnesrespectively,accountingforabout9percentofthetotalartisanalfisheriescatch(estimatedat29410tonnes)recordedforZanzibar(for2007).However,cautionisrequiredinlookingatthesedatabecauseofconcernsaboutidentification;forexample,inthesedataanchovieswerereportedasbeingmembersoftheClupeidaefamily, whereas they are actually Engraulidae. Note also that the species composition reported by Jiddawi andPandusuggestedthatanchovycontributedjust2percenttotheoverallsmallpelagiccatch,comparedtoabout70percentfortheso-calledClupeidae/anchoviesintheDFMRdata(orabout50percentifoneincludestheso-calledEngraulidae/mackerelgroup).Apossibleexplanationforthelargedifferencesincatchcompositionisthatthecommercialfishery(thesourceofJiddawiandPandu’sdata)mayhaveoperatedindeeperwaterthantheartisanalfleetthatgeneratedthedatafromDFMR.Deeperwatermaybelessfavourabletoanchovy.Alternativelythedifferencesreflectproblemswithspeciesidentification.

IntermsofthecontributionofsmallpelagicfishtotheoverallcatchlandedinZanzibar,asummaryofa12-yeartime series of catch data is presented in Figure 26. In the mid-2000s, anchovies appear to contribute very significantly(15to25percent)totheoveralllandedcatchforZanzibar(acrossallfamilies)beforedecliningalmost precipitously to less than 2 000 tonnes in 2012. The very stable weight of landings of anchovies and sardines between 2007 and 2010 perhaps signals challenges with the data collection procedures.

Thetwodatasets(fromJiddawiandPanduandfromDFMR)aremergedinFigure27.

Figure25:Catchdataforsmall-pelagicspeciesinZanzibar,ZAFICO1968to1997

42

Frame survey data for Zanzibar Table3indicatesthatthemajorityofthering-netfleetislocatedinwesternUnguja(UrbanWestDistrict),intheproximityofthemajorconurbationofStoneTown(DFMR,2010).ThisislogicalbothfromtheperspectivethataccesstothebulkoftheresourceislikelytobeintheadjacentZanzibarChannel,althoughanimportantcaveatisthatthetruespatialextentofthefisheryisunknown.StoneTownisalsoZanzibar’slargestsinglemarket,aswellasthehuboftheUngujaIsland’stransportnetwork(includingto the mainland markets). There are few ring-nets recorded from Pemba.

Table 3: FramesurveydataforZanzibar(source:DFMR,2010)

region district no. of ring-nets

UrbanWest Urban 42West 115

NorthUnguja NorthA 35North B 5

SouthUnguja South 3Central 0

North Pemba Micheweni 4Wete 0

South Pemba Chake Chake 5Mkoani 0

Total = 209

Mainlandcatchdata,datingbacktothe1970s,suggestslargefluctuationsinthepopulationofsmallpelagicfishavailabletothefishery(althoughdatafrom2010to2012appeartobeanomalouslyconsistent,year-on-year).Thesehistoricalfluctuationswouldpresumablynothavebeenasaresultofanthropogenicclimatechangeforcing.InZanzibar,datafromthelastdecadeorsoalsosuggestsignificantfluctuations.Anexampleisthefallinoveralltonnageofsmallpelagicfishfrommorethan6000tonnesin2005tolessthan 2 700 tonnes in 2012, although much of this change was in the “anchovy” catches, with “sardines”

Figure 26: Landings of small pelagicfish(andtotalcatch),Zanzibar2000to2012

Figure 27: Composite data forsmallpelagicfishcatchesinZanzibar,1968to2012.(source:“ZAFICOdata”=Jiddawi&Öhman,2002;“various sources” = Jiddawi & Pandu,1988;Nhwani,1988;“anchovy” & “sardines” = DFMR, pers. comm., 2014)

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

apparentlymorestable.Thischangereflectsyear-on-yeardeclinesinexcessof35percentwhichsuggeststhatthefisheryisextremelydynamic.Thismayalreadyrepresenttheeffectsofanthropogenicclimatechangebutcouldequallyreflectnaturalclimate(andecosystem)variabilitytowhichsmallpelagicfishpopulations are, according to the evidence provided elsewhere in this report, known to be so sensitive.

Direct employment in the small pelagic fisheryIntermsofemployment−atleastdirectemploymentascrewonthering-netvessels−onlyestimatescanbepresentedbecauseoftheapparentlackofdataontheoperationalsideofthefishery.Forthemainland,usingthenumberofring-netsfromthe2009framesurveyandapplyingameancrewsizeof12(alsoderivedfromthe2009framesurveydata),atotalof5220individuals(14percentoftheestimatedtotalnumberoffishers)wouldbeearningatleastsomeoftheirlivelihoodfromthesmallpelagicfishery.Ifoneappliesthe2013data(equatingonering-netpervessel)thendirectemploymentwouldriseto13776,whichrepresentssome37percentofallfishersinthemainlandfishery.ForZanzibar,againusingthesamemeancrewsizeof12fisherspervessel,thesmallpelagicfisherymay be creating employment opportunities for about 2 500 individuals, which equates to approximately 7percentofthetotalnumberoffishersoperatingonZanzibar(deGraaf&Garibaldi,2014).Again,theemploymentprovidedbythefisheryisanimportantcomponentofoverallfisheriesemploymentinZanzibarandonthemainland.Tanzaniaisacountrywhereemploymentopportunitiesarerelativelyscarce;theofficialunemploymentratewas 10.7 percent in 2011, although this excludes the informal sector that is estimated to employ 10 percent of theavailablelabourforce.Theproblemisparticularlyseriousforyoungpeople;forexample,900000youngTanzaniansenterthejobmarketeachyear,buttheeconomyonlycreatesonly50000to60000newjobs.41 However, given the lack of data, it is currently more or less impossible to realistically determine the sensitivity ofthecrews’livelihoodstoanyreductioninopportunitiesinthesmallpelagicfishery.Dotheindividualswhocrewtendtobefull-time,“career”crew,ordotheyparticipateonapart-time(e.g.seasonal)orevenonacasualandadhocbasis?Certainly,anyreductioninthesizeofthesmallpelagicfishery,whetherasaresultofnaturalfluctuationsorbecauseoffluctuationsexaggeratedbyanthropogenicclimatechange,wouldbe unwelcome, but little more than that can be said at this stage. This is particularly the case for the Dar es Salaam-basedfishery,whichislikelytohaveratherdifferentcharacteristics(forexamplewithrespecttobusiness plan and employment, etc.) than the vessels that operate out of more rural areas.

The economics of the small pelagic fisheryGiventhechallengesindeterminingaccuratetotalcatchesofsmallpelagicfish,thereareclearlyconcomitantdifficultiesindeterminingtherevenuesgenerateddirectlyfromtheirsale(nottomentiontheadditionalmultipliereffectastheproductsaretradedthroughtheeconomy).Consequently,therearerelateddifficultiesindeterminingthepotentiallivelihoodandeconomicrisksassociatedwithanychange(decline)inthesmallpelagicfishery.

Generally,smallpelagicfisharelowvaluefish,althoughthepricesvarysignificantlyfromdistricttodistrictandonaday-to-daybasis.A2013fisherieseconomicsstudy42inZanzibarindicatedthat“sardines”fetchedameanpriceoflessthanUSD0.5/kg.Thenexthighestpricecategoryoffish(surgeonfish)fetchedaboutUSD1.5/kg(Figure28).Nostandarderrorswereprovidedforthemeans.

DatafromDFMRfor2012suggestaratherhigherbeachauctionpriceforZanzibarsardinesthanwasobserved by Fröcklin et al.inurbanretailmarkets.AggregatefiguresindicatedameanpriceofTsh3456kg,whichequatestoaboutUSD2.20/kg(atanexchangerateofTsh1600totheUSdollar),comparedtoFröcklin’sUSD0.5/kg.ThedifferencesinpricerecordedforsardinesbetweenFröcklinandDFMRisconfusing.Figure29presentsacomparisonofpricesacrossallfishcategoriesinZanzibarbetweenFröcklin’sdataandthoseofDFMR.(Notethatlobster,sellingat>USD13/kg,arenotincludedinthisanalysistomaintainareasonably legible y-axis scale). DFMR data reported on sardines and anchovies separately, while Fröcklin et al.onlyreportedonsardines.Nosamplesizesorstandarderrorswereprovided.

41. Kushner, 2013.42. Fröcklin et al., 2013.

44

Theapproximateevolutionofprice(USD/kg)foranchoviesandsardinesinZanzibarispresentedinFigure 30, based on DFMR data. The circles represent the trend in total catches for each year by family.

Figure28:Marketretailpricedata(USD/kg)forcategoriesoffishinZanzibar(source:redrawnfromFröcklin et al., 2013)

Figure29:Comparisonofprices(USD)forfishinZanzibar(source:retailpriceFröcklinet al.,2013;beach value DFMR, 2013

Figure30:Evolutionofbeachpriceforsmallpelagicfish(USD/kg)inZanzibar,2005to2012(source:DFMR)

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Data provided by FDD for the mainland,43 indicate a 2012 market price of Tsh3 550/kg for “dagaa” (amoreorlessgenericnameforsmallpelagicfish),whichequatestoaboutUSD2.18/kg.ThisissimilartotherecentDFMRdataforZanzibar.

Basedonthemainlandmarketprice(USD2.18/kg)andthetotalcatchdataprovidedbytheFD(7619tonnes)thesmallpelagicfisheryin2012wouldhavebeenworthapproximatelyUSD16.6millionThemainlandsmallpelagicfisherythereforecontributesabout12percentoftotalfirstsalesrevenuefromcoastalmarinefisheries.Thisrepresentsabout0.3percentofoverallGDP(deGraaf&Garibaldi,2014).

ForZanzibartheestimatedvalueforthecatchofsmallpelagicspeciesprovidedbyDFMR(DFMR,pers.comm.)for2012was2691tonnesandthereforeapplyingDFMR'sownpriceestimateofUSD2.1/kgyieldsavalueofUSD5.9millionorabout11percentofthetotalvalueofthefirstsalesvalueofmarinefisheriesonZanzibar.Thisequatestoabout0.6percentofGDP(deGraaf&Garibaldi,2014).ThepotentiallossofrevenuesfromthesmallpelagicfisheryarethereforenotinsignificantfortheeconomiesofthetwopartnersintheURT.

Operational costsNo up-to-date information was available to determine wages, fuel costs, the costs of ice, maintenance and depreciationcosts,etc.ofthesmallpelagicring-netfleet.Neitherwasanycurrentinformationavailableaboutthemarketchainforthesubsector.However,Gibbon’sreport(opcit.)providesvaluableinsightintothebasicinvestmentsrequiredtoenterthefishery,albeitfrom1997,andsomeinsightsintothemarketchain. These observations urgently need to be updated to properly understand the economics of the small pelagicfishery.

AccordingtoGibbon,asinglering-netcostsbetweenUSD8250andUSD20500(in2014,pricesadjustedforinflation)dependingonitssize.Afullyfitted10to12mvessel,equippedwitharing-netandengineswasestimatedtocostbetweenUSD19000andUSD33000.Asecondhand20mvesselandring-netwasestimatedtocostaboutUSD70000,againinequivalent2014pricesthatclearlyneedtobebroughtup-to-date.

Allthevesselswere(andinalllikelihoodcontinuetobe)ownedbybusinesspeoplewhotypicallyownedmorethanonevesselandemployedthenecessaryskippersandcrewstorunthefishingoperation.Aninterestingfeatureofthesmallpelagicfishery,atleastinthe1990s,wasthat(perhapslikethestocksthemselves)therewasastronglinkbetweentheZanzibarandDaresSalaamfleets.Gibbonalsoreportedthat when vessels or ring-nets were sold, the trade would often be between owners from either side of the ZanzibarChannel,andthatZanzibarivesselskippersandevencrewwereactiveinbothfisheries.

Finally,Gibbonreportedoncatchrates:withasinglevesselofthesmaller(10to12m)categorylanding500kg/day(whichheraisedtoatotalof100tonnes/yr),comparedtothelargercategory(20m)expectingtoland1.25tonnes/day(about300tonnes/yr).Note,thatthesedataarenotbasedonarigoroussamplingofcatchesanditisnotclearwhethertheannualtotalcatchorthedailymeanisthemoreaccuratefigure.However,onthebasisthatthereareapproximately72entirelymoonlessnightsperyear(whichwouldyield,forexample,500kg×72=36tonnesforthesmallervessels),thereisarequirementthatthefleetisactiveacrossawiderrangeofmoonphasesthanjustfullymoonlessnightstoachievethetotalcatchesGibbonreported.Thesedataalsoindicatethatfishingmusttakeplacemoreorlessthroughouttheyear,althoughGibbondiddescribethesoutheastmonsoonmonthsasa“periodofshortage”,reflectedinpricesup to 300 percent greater than those quoted for the northeast monsoon period.

Toenterthering-netfisherythereforerequiresasignificantinvestment.Gibbon’sanalysissuggeststhatforthosewhodoinvestinthefishery,itisperhapsonlyoneactivityinasuiteofbusinessactivities.Witha diversity of economic eggs in their investment basket, investors hedge against the risks of participating inafisherythatvariessignificantlybetweenyears(totalcatch)andwithinyears(priceperkilogram).Forthosewhoparticipateinthesmallpelagicfishery,theapparentdramaticincreaseandthendeclineinthefisheryfrom2000to2006(asdescribedpreviously)wouldpresumablyhavehadsignificanteffectsontheir

43. L.Ibengwe(FDD),pers.comm.,2014.

46

business plans. Perhaps the optimum strategy for investors is to follow the same approach as the small pelagicspeciesthemselves,i.e.towidelysamplethe(businessopportunityenvironment)andthengrowrapidlywhenopportunitiesarrive(inproductiveyears),buttoacceptsignificantreductionsinrevenuesduringpoorcatchyears.Unlikesmallpelagicfishofcourse,humanscanexitthefisheryifnecessary.Butagain,therelativeimportanceofthesmallpelagicfisherytothebusinesspeoplewhoinvestinitislargelyunknown,sotheimpactofanyreducedprofitabilityisimpossibletocommentonatthisstage.

MarketingIntermsofmarketingofsmallpelagicfish,Gibbon’s1997reportappearstoprovidetheonlyinformationavailable,atleastforthemajorDaresSalaam(Ferry)market.Althoughonlydirectlyrelevantto1996,itis instructive nonetheless.

Thereweretwomaindestinationsforthesmallpelagicfish,eitherforhumanconsumptionoraschakula cha kuku(lit.foodforchickens)forthebatterypoultryindustry.Tradingfrequencyvariedbetweenbuyers,with some active daily, others only once or twice each month, depending on their access to working capital topurchasethefish.Butagain,thisinformationneedstobeupdated.Sometradingwasalsoconductedonacontractbasis,directlywiththevesselowners.Gibbonreportedthatthelargestdrier-traderswouldbuyupto7.5tonnespermonth(whichisequivalentto3tonnesdryweight).

Themajorityof thesmallpelagic fishpurchasedatFerrymarketduring thesoutheastmonsoon (dryseason)weresundried(peakingbetweenJulyandOctober)andsoldlocallyandasfarsouthasMtwara(throughagents).Gibbonalsonotedthatabout20percentofthetradewasinwetfishwhichwasalso sold to traders from elsewhere, including from Morogoro Town located inland from Dar es Salaam. Thesmallpelagicfishwouldthenbesoldontofishfryers.AninterestingaspectofthetradewithMtwara(forexample)wasthattraderswouldusuallyreturntoDaresSalaamwithaconsignmentofsomeotherproduct, such as fruit, to sell in the capital.

Inthenortheastmonsoon,thewetfishandchakula cha kuku traders apparently dominated the purchases, with at least some of the trader/driers who were active in the southeast monsoon switching to trading in reef-caughtfish.

TheonlyinformationonthetradeinZanzibarthatwasaccessibleforthisdesk-basedreportwasfromthestudy conducted by Fröcklin et al.(opcit.),forwhich42tradersfromtenfishmarketsaroundZanzibar’sUngujaIslandwereinterviewed.Thesellingof“sardines”rankedlastineconomicimportance,withonlyabout10percentofwomentradersstatingitwaseconomicallyimportanttothem;theequivalentfigurefor male traders was about 15 percent. By contrast, more than 75 percent of all traders stated that the trade in the “emperors”category(broadlycoveringLethrinidae)waseconomicallyimportanttothem.

GiventhatthecatchdataprovidedbyDFMRsuggestanoverallcontributionofsmallpelagicfishofabout9percent(sardines6.44percentandanchovies2.7percent)tothetotalcatchin2012(comparedto7 percent for the emperors)itmightbethatthetradein“sardines”isratherspecializedandlimitedtoafewmain dealers, possibly operating on contracts, as was observed at the Ferry market in Dar es Salaam by Gibbon.Thesedealersmayhavedirectlinksestablishedwithwholesaleand/orretailoutletsandthereforethesmallpelagicfishthatthesedealerspurchaseandsellonwouldnotnecessarilyappearinfishmarkets,whilethemajorityofunspecializedtradersbuyandsellsmallpelagicfishonamoreadhocbasis.BasedonthisevidencetheunspecializedfishtradersinZanzibarwouldnotbeparticularlysensitivetodeclinesintheavailabilityofsmallpelagicfish.Butthespecializedtraders,perhapsundercontractwithmainlandbuyers,wouldappeartobemoresensitivetochange(declines)intotalyields.

Itisworthnotingthatthecatchofsmallpelagicfish(sardinesandanchovies)contributedanestimated26percent(5600tonnes)toZanzibar’stotalcatchin2003andasimilarpercentage(buthighertonnageof6223tonnes)in2005.Themarketingofthiscategoryoffishmayhavebeenverydifferentduringyearsofhigherabundance.Analternativeinterpretationcouldbethatthetradeinsmallpelagicfishisincreasinglydominatedbythemainlandmarketsandthemajorityofsmallpelagicfisharelandedtheredirectly, explaining the recent declines in the recorded catch of these species.

47

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

Giventhelimitedhistoricalandcontemporaryinformationavailableonthesmallpelagicfishery’seconomicsandmarketchain,itisdifficulttomakeanyinformedcommentsonthesensitivityofthefisherytopotentialdeclinesintheabundanceofsmallpelagicfish.Forexample,theopportunitycostofcapitalforvesselownersandtraderstoparticipateinthisparticularfisheryisnotknownatthispointintime.Therefore,the scale of change in landings or unit production costs that would be necessary for existing participants toleavethefisheryalsoremainsunknown.Similarly,theopportunitycostoflabour(crew)forthefishingoperations is unknown.

Migrant fishersAfinalfeatureofthesmallpelagicfisherythatisimportanttodiscussisitsapparentsignificancetomigrantfishersinbothmainlandTanzaniaandZanzibar.WIOMSA(2011)studiedthemigrationoffishersacrossfourcountriesoftheWIOincludingTanzaniaandtheiranalysesrevealedthat30percentofmigrantfishingoperationsinvolvedtheuseof“purseseinegears”,whichwouldlargelytargetpelagicfish.AkeypartoftheWIOMSAstudywasthecollectionofself-reporteddatafromresident(N=19)andmigratory(N=44)fishersontheircatchcomposition(Figure31).Resultsfromthissamplingindicatedthatcertainsmallpelagicspeciesgroups(the“saradini”, using Swahili nomenclature, or Clupeidae)aremorefrequentlymentionedinthecatchformigrants(35percent)thanforresidentfishers(about10percent)(Figure31),althoughthisdoesnotsayanythingabouttherelativeimportanceofthedifferentgroupsoffishintermsofrevenues,forexample.

Apossibleexplanationforthehigherimportanceofsmall-pelagicfishinmigrantfishers'catch,isthattheytargetspecificallypelagicmigratoryfish.Thisreducestheneedtodevelopin-depthknowledgeonlocalfishinggroundsorothertraditionalecologicalknowledge(TEK)thatmayrequirelongerperiodsofresidenceinacertainlocale.Thekeyknowledgerequiredisthelong-shoremovementofthefishandtheuseofthefishinggear.Furthermore,thetargetspeciesformschoolsandthereforecanproduceinstantaneousandlargeyields.Targetingmigratorypelagicfishalsoreducestheneedformigrantfisherstoenterlocalcoralreeffishinggroundsandpotentiallycompetewithlocalfisherswhowouldhabituallyusethesamegrounds.Onthe

other hand, the dagaa group (also a smallpelagic fish) appears to be caught more frequently by resident fishers than migrants. This appears anomalous and may ref lect the targeting of inshore anchovies(Engraulidae)with beach seine nets. However, no evidence was available to support this idea.

Afurtherobservationfrom the research of the WIOMSAresearchers(op cit .) was theresidents’ perception of the contribution of migrant fishers to hos t com mu n it ie s (Figure32).Althoughthe sample sizes aremodest g iven the likely variance in the

Figure31:Relativeimportanceoffishgroupforresidentvsmigrantfishers(source:redrawnfromWIOMSA,2011)

48

population,morethan90percentoftheresidentsinterviewedforthestudyreportedthatthemigrantsdeliveredaboosttothelocaleconomy;withvarioussupplementarybenefitsincludingincreasedlocalsupplyoffishandjobopportunities.Additionalsocialbenefitsincludedinter-marriageandprovisionofassistancetoresidents.TheWIOMSAstudywasnotabletoquantifythevalueoftheeconomicbenefitstotheirhostcommunitiesbuttheypresumablyincludefishtradingrevenues,expenditurebymigrantsinlocalfoodmarkets,etc.Whatevertheprecisenatureoftheeconomicbenefit,theperceptionwasclearlyasignificantlypositiveone.

Themigrantfisherstudyalsosoughtinformationonthemotivationforfisherstomigrate.Themostcommonlycitedreason(45percentofrespondents)formigrationwas“thesearchformoremoneyorbetter income”, while a further 30 percent cited the reason of “a general desire to improve one’s life”, whicharguablyismuchthesamethinginthiscontext(WIOMSA,opcit.).Perhapssurprisinglyonly18percentcited“thesearchforbetterfishinggrounds”asthemaindriver.AstheWIOMSAresearchersnote,thesethreedriversandthesearchforbettermarkets(33percent)areratherinextricablylinked.Itwouldbeusefultobetterunderstandthebreakdownofthedriversamongthedifferenttypesoffisher,inparticulartheprimarymigrationdriverforvesselsthattargetsmallpelagicspecies.Giventhemigratorynatureofthesmallpelagicresources,thereisanimperativetobeamigrantfisherifoneistobenefitfromthefisheryonamoreorlessfull-timebasis,asopposedtoopportunisticfishingwhentheresourceentershomefishinggrounds.Thesensitivityofthemigrantfleetisdependentontherelativecontributionofsmallpelagicfishtotheoverallcatchprofile,butthistypeofinformationisscarceornon-existent,asitisforsomanyotherfeaturesofthefishery.Itisclearhoweverthatforsectionsofthefleet,whichhaveinvestedinthenecessarytechnologytotargetschoolsofsmallpelagicfish,thesensitivityisratherhigherthanfortheremainderofthefleet.Similarly,improvedstatisticsontheactualeconomiccontributionofthemigrantsmallpelagicfleettohostcommunitieswouldallowformoreinformedcommentontheirsensitivity to declines in yields, or indeed changes in the distribution of the stocks.

Thelackofdataonthesmallpelagicfisheriesmakessensitivityanalysesdifficult.Butonecanpartiallyinformtheanalysisthroughreferencetoexistingliteratureonthewiderfisheriessector.Forexample,Figure33presentsdataonthemeanpercentageofhouseholdsineachregionofZanzibarthatparticipateinfisheries.ThesefiguresprovideahintoftheroleofmarinefisheriesinthelivelihoodsofZanzibaris.FormainlandTanzania,MalleretandSimbua(2004)analysedthedependenceofcoastalvillagesintheMnaziBay-RuvumaEstuaryMarinePark(MBREMP).Theyobservedthatofatotalof4958households(representingmorethan17000adultsandchildren),1737(35percent)couldbedescribedasdependentonmarineresource-associatedactivities.More recently, Cinner et al.(2011)developedametricofthesensitivityofcoastalhouseholdstoclimatechangeinduceddisruptionofcoralreeffisheries.Theresearchtookplacein29sites(villagesand/orlanding

Figure32:Benefitsreportedbyhostcommunitiesfrommigrantfishers(source:WIOMSA,2011)

49

Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

sites) across five WIO statesincludingTanzania.The sensitivity metric was based on ranked household dependency across a range of livelihood options. Tanzania, as a country,revealed the highest level of sensitivity, while the highest level of sensitivity within the country was in a community “near Dar es Salaam”, in which 73 percent of households wereengagedinfishery-related occupations. The precisedefinitionsofthetypesoffisheriesthatthesehouseholds were engaged with was not reported in the publication and this is the type of additional data that urgently needs to be generatedtobetterunderstandtheextenttowhichfishingcommunitiesparticipateinthesmallpelagicfishery.

4.3 Adaptive capacityFisheries management institutionsThegovernmentinstitutionsresponsibleforthemanagementoffisheriesintheURTaretheFDDonthemainlandandtheDFMRonZanzibar.Analysisoflength-frequencydataforS. gibbosa provided byNhwaniandBianchi(1988)suggestedthatthestocksfishedoffZanzibarwerecontiguouswiththosefishedoffDaresSalaam.If,asseemsprobable,thestocksofsmallpelagicfishareinfactsharedbetweenthemainlandandZanzibar,thereisclearlyanurgentneedtoestablishamechanismwherebythe(future)managementofthefisheryiscoordinatedbetweenthetwopartnersintheURT.

AsfarastheFDDisconcerned,itsrolesincethegovernment’sdecentralizationhasbeenoneofoverallpolicy-setting,developingoverarchingnationalfisheriesmanagementlawsandregulations,leadingdevelopmentcooperationprogrammesandfulfillingtheveryimportantroleofsupervisionandguidanceofdistrict-levelfisheriesofficers(DFOs),whoarenowemployeddirectlybytheirrespectivelocalgovernmentauthorities.

Thislatterarrangementhasnotbeenwithoutitsdifficulties,largelyowingtothelackoffinancialsupportforfisheriesmanagementfromthebudgetconstraineddistrictsandthereforethelimitedabilityofDFOstofulfiltheirquitenumerousstatutoryduties.Thisinpartexplainswhyeffectivedatacollectionhasbeen so problematic in recent years. The other explanations include the technical capacity of the DFOs themselves and a degree of institutional inertia with regard to modifying the data collection system. This isurgentlyrequiredtoensurethatitismoreappropriatetothesituationinTanzania,wheremorethan200,oftenremote,coastallandingsitesserveacomplex,tropical,multi-speciesfishery.ThemannerinwhichtheFDDanditspartnersimprovethegenerationofknowledgeonthesmallpelagicfisheryinthefuturewillbecriticaltoattemptstosustainthefisheryforthisdynamicgroupofspecies.

Since2007,community-basedmarinefisheriesmanagementinstitutions−BeachManagementUnits(BMUs)−have been established, and there are now at least 30 that can be considered to be functioning at something approaching the expectation of the FDD.44MembershipofalocalBMUisobligatoryforallfishersfromalocale,whoarerepresentedatBMUlevelthrougha15-memberelectedcommittee.FullBMUassembliesprovidefurtheropportunitiestodiscusslocalfisheriesissuesandconcerns,andBMUsareformallynestedwithin

44. Anderson&Mwangamilo,2013.

Figure33:PercentageofhouseholdsinZanzibarparticipatinginfisheriesactivities(source:DFMR)

50

localgovernancestructures,althoughtherehavebeenconflictsbetweenBMUsandvillagegovernments.45 BMUsplayaroleinanumberofaspectsoffisheriesmanagementinTanzania,includingthecollectionofdataattheirrespectivelandingsites.AsthesystemmaturesandwiththecontinuedsupportoftheFDD,NGOsanddonor-fundedfisheriesmanagementanddevelopmentprogrammes,thepresenceoftheselocalmanagementbodieswillnodoubtservethefishercommunitieswell.

AmorerecentdevelopmenthasbeenthelegalabilityofBMUstoaggregateintoso-calledCollaborativeFisheriesManagementAreas(CFMAs),althoughasimilarmodelwasrolled-outintheTangaRegioninthelate1990s.TheFisheriesRegulations(2009)state“ABeachManagementUnitmayassociatewithotherBeachManagementUnitsandco-managementstructurestoformhigherlevelBeachManagementUnitsforthepurposesoffisheriesplanning,managementanddevelopment”.CFMAsthereforegosomewaytoaddressingoneofthemajorconstraintsofthevillageBMUapproach,namelytheirinabilitytomanagefisheriesatascalethatismeaningfulinecologicalterms.WhiletheCFMAapproachisrelativelynewanduntested,theyareseenashavingaroletoplaywithinthenew(2013)managementplanforsmallandmediumpelagicfisheries.Theplanreadsasfollows:

“…aCo-managementconcepthasbeendevelopedandadoptedfortheestablishmentofBeachManagementUnitsandCollaborativeFisheriesManagementAreas(CFMA’s)thatprovidesforcommunityparticipationinfisheriesmanagementcomprisingofallstakeholderswhowillworkincollaborationwiththegovernmentagenciesandNGO’sattheirrespectiveareas.”

However,theplanthengoesontostatethat“ManagementUnits(BMU)andCollaborativeFisheriesManagementAreas(CFMAs),havebeenonlypartlyeffective,butcanbeusedtoexplorerightsbasedmanagementinthefuture.”(Anon,2013).ThisappearstodefinitivelydefertheparticipationofBMUsandCFMAsinmanagementdecision-making.

InZanzibar,theproblemswithdatacollectionarecausedbymanyofthesameissuesasonthemainland.Nosmallpelagicfisheriesmanagementplanexists.

Overall,thereisagenerallackoftechnicalcapacityandlimitedfinancialsupportforDFOstogettothefieldandmentorandsupervizelocaldatacollectors(orBwana Diko),aswellasdeficienciesinthedesignof the sampling and data collation protocols. It has been noted previously that even the allocation of the catchtothedifferentfishfamiliescanbeproblematic.

However, in terms of coastal marine resource management, much of the coast is now under the management ofMarineConservationAreas(MCAs)(seeFigure34forUngujaIsland).ThisinstitutionprovidesforShehiaFishermen’sCommittees(SFCs)andtheMCA-scaleadvisorycommittee−theFishermen’sExecutiveCommittee(FEC).

AlthoughSFCshavequiteadifferentroletotheBMUsonthe mainland, being rather more advisory than decision-making, they do provide a useful pathway for information and knowledge exchange. They remain in their infancy and have a number of important challenges to overcome beforetheycanfullyachievetheirobjectives;thesamecanalsobesaidfortheCFMAs.46 Nevertheless, they are something to work with.

InZanzibar,someofthefishinggroundstargetedbythesmallpelagicfleetarewithintheboundariesofMCAs47 and certainly do occur within the management boundaries of theCFMAs(andBMUs)onthemainland.Thisprovidesbothanopportunityandaconstrainttothefishery.TheBMUs,CFMAsandMCAsclearlyprovideanopportunity

45. Ibid.46. Anderson&Mwangamilo,2013.47. M.Jumbe(DirectorofFisheries)pers.comm.,2013.

Figure 34: Marine conservation areas of UngujaIsland(source:Anderson&Shalli,2013)

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

to control effort through regulations and/or by-laws aimed at managing access, without the need to establish anyadditionalmanagementstructuresorlegalprovisionspecificallyforthesmallpelagicfishery.Withtheexceptionofthemoremobile(non-resident)elementsofthesmallpelagicfleet,theselocalmanagementunitscouldpotentiallylimitaccesstothefishery,therebyreducingtheflexibilityofthefisherydevelopedpriortothelaunchingoftheBMUs/MCAs.Forexample,regulationsofMenaiBayConservationArea(MBCA)alreadylimitsomemigrantfishersthatformallycampedonuninhabitedislandsintheBay.Thisislikelytohaveconsequencesforthelivelihoodsofthoseinvolvedinthefishery.Indeed,Anderson&Mwangamilo(opcit.)recommendedthatmigrantfishersbeformallyintegratedintoBMUmanagementstructurestoprovidethem with an opportunity to at least observe, if not fully participate in, the decision-making processes of their hostcommunities.Giventhegenerallypositiveattitudestowardsmigratoryfishersbyhostcommunities,asreportedbyWIOMSA(opcit.),thiswouldappeartobeintheinterestsofthehostcommunitiesaswell.OnecaveatisthatthespecificfisheriestargetedbymigrantsthatcontributedtolocaleconomieswerenotidentifiedintheWIOMSAreport,anditisofcoursepossiblethatthesmallpelagicfleetdoesnotinteractwithhostcommunitiesinthesamewayasothercomponentsofthemigrantfleetmaydo.

Oneofmanymajorchallengesforthemanagementofsmallpelagicfish,isthattheoperationalboundariesofCFMAsandMCAsprobablydonotincludeallthesmallpelagicfishinggrounds,particularlythosefoundintheZanzibarChannel.HowthismiddlegroundisgoingtobeeffectivelymanagedbetweenthetwopartnersoftheURTremainstobedetermined.However,aprecedenthasbeenestablishedforcooperationinfisheriesmattersthroughthecreationoftheDSFA,whichisresponsibleforthelicensingofdistantwaterfishingnations(DWFN)tunavesselsinthesharedEEZ.Clearlyacost-benefitanalysisisrequiredtodeterminewhethersuchanapproachwouldbewarrantedforthesmallpelagicfishery,andsuchananalysiscanonlybecompletedwhenamorecomprehensivesetofdataonthefisheryhasbeendeveloped, not least on its geographical distribution.

LivelihoodsThe paucity of up-to-date information on households that derive a livelihood from the small pelagic fisherypreventssubstantivecommentsontheirabilitytoadapttoapotentialdeclineinyields.Whatisclearisthat,becauseofthelargeinvestmentsrequiredtoenterthefisheryanditsinherentlymobilenature, it generally cannot be viewed in the same light as, for example, the village based artisanal coral reeffishery.Itisprobablethatfurtherinvestigationwillrevealthatthesmallpelagicfisheryoperatesmorelikeastructuredbusiness,withinvestors,management(skippers)andemployees(crew).Keyinformationrequired to better understand the potential for adaptation would include, inter alia:

i The economic structure of the fishery:• Theownershipstructureofthefleetandhowtheindividualunitsofproduction(i.e.vessels,engines

andgears)fitintothewiderlivelihood/economicportfoliooftheowners.ThisisparticularlyrelevanttothefleetbasedinDaresSalaamandTangaandthesmallpelagicmigrantfleet,whichislikelytohaveratherdifferentcharacteristicsfromthemorelocalizedoperationselsewhere.

• Moreinformationisrequiredtounderstandthecontributionthatthesmallpelagicfisherymakesto the overall catch and incomes of the vessels that are not owned by a larger enterprise, and whetherfishingisseasonal.

ii The labour structure: • Informationisrequiredtounderstandhow,andfromwhichareas,crewarerecruited;therange

ofoccupationalmobilityofthecrew;theiroccupationalmultiplicity(whethertheirworkisfull-time or not and whether it precludes participation in other livelihood activities). Information is alsorequiredonthecapacitiesandassetsofthefishingcrewsandwhethertheyareabletomovebetweenlivelihoods.Theremaybeimportantseasonalaspectstotheiremploymentif,asGibbonsuggested,thesoutheastmonsoonperiodischaracterizedbyreducedlandingsofsmallpelagicspecies.

iii Marketing structure:• Aretherecontractfishingoperationsandwhataretheirmodalitiesofoperation?

52

• Whattypeoftraderparticipatesinthemarketingofsmallpelagicspecies?Arethereopportunisticanddedicatedtraders?

• Whatarethecharacteristicsofthesmallpelagicvaluechain?

• Whatarethepatternsofconsumptionofsmallpelagicfish?Howdoeshumanconsumptioncomparewithconsumptionbythebatterypoultryindustry,forinstance?

iv Adaptive experience:• Thefisheryappearstobeverydynamic.InZanzibar,forexample,theavailabledatasuggesta

fall in overall tonnage from more than 6 000 tonnes in 2005 to less than 2 700 tonnes in 2012. These data show year-on-year declines of more than 35 percent. How have the owners, operators andtradersinthefisheryadaptedtothesechanges?Andwhatarethethresholdsforcontinuedparticipationinthefishery?

5 Socio-ecological vulnerability

“Vulnerabilityisthestateofsusceptibilitytoharmfromexposuretostressesassociatedwithenvironmentaland social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt”.48

Smallpelagicfisheriesappeartobecharacterizedbynaturallyhighlevelsofvariabilityintheirpopulationdynamics, many or perhaps most of which are forced by environmental factors beyond the control of any fisheriesmanagementintervention.Expertanalysesofthelikelyresponsesofthemarineenvironmentto climate change do not tend towards a consensus, while these responses in turn are likely to trigger a variety of non-linear, and probably different, responses in Clupeid and Engraulid species. To apply Dikau’s terminology again, there are many simply unknowable factors in the overall picture. On the other hand, socialvulnerabilityispotentiallyknowable,butthereiscurrentlyinsufficientdataandknowledgeonthefisherytodeterminewithanyconfidencethepossibleoutcomes,northepotentialforthehumanelementofthefisheriestoadapt.

6 Smallpelagicfisheriesmanagement

Thecharacteristicsofsmallpelagicspeciesdemandfisherymanagementstrategiesthatareflexibleandresponsive.49ThemainlandTanzaniagovernment’sresponsetothelackofmanagementofthefisheryhasbeen the preparation of the management plan for the Tanzanianartisanalfisheryforsmallandmediumpelagicfishspecies.50ThePlancurrentlylacksanyspecificdetailsastowhatregulations,forexamplelimitsonfishingeffort,wouldbeappliedbuttheexpectationisthatthecontentwillbedevelopedinthenearfuture.

Thereareoverallsixobjectivesoftheplan,butforthepurposesofthiscasestudyonlythreearediscussedin a little more detail, as follows:

i. Maximize long-term economic and socio-economic sustainability of the fishery (e.g. improve catch rates and size structure):

Thisisalaudableobjective,butnotwithstandinganyclimatechangeeffects,thehighnaturalvariabilityofabundance(andpopulationstructure)ofsmallpelagicspeciespresentssignificantchallengestoensuring“long-term”sustainabilityinTanzania’sparticularfisherymanagementcontext,whichischaracterizedby largely non-existent effort controls and very sparse and unreliable data. The choice of catch rates as anindicatorofsustainabilityishighrisk,particularlyforsmallpelagicfish.Thisisbecausetheyare

48. Adger,2006.49. Ommer et al., 2013.50. Anon,2013.

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schoolingfishandwillnaturallyaggregate,atevenverylowlevelsofabundance.Therefore,therelationshipbetween catch rates and abundance tends to be hyper stable. What this means in practice is that catch rates tend to decline more slowly than abundance, increasing the risk of a stock collapse because declines are not detected by the chosen indicator.51 New knowledge of the stocks in question should deliver new understandingofstocksizestructure,butitalsoseemsproblematictohaveasanobjective“improvement”ofthesizestructureofsuchashortlivedgroupofspecies.

ii. Manage stocks to ecologically sustainable levels (trophic interactions):

The reference to trophic interactions is sensible because of the key role of small pelagic species in transferringbiomassandenergyfromshorttrophicwebs(phyto-andzooplankton)towardshighertrophiclevels(e.g.tunas)(GFCM,Nd.).Butthechallengeisdefiningwhatecologicallysustainablelevelsactuallymeans in practice.

iii. Rebuild stocks to minimize risk to the resource (recruitment etc.):

Thisisausefulobjectiveinprinciplebutagainrebuildinginthecontextofsuchshortlivedanimalsseemslikeananathema.Whatthiswouldrequireisregular(e.g.annualorbiannual)updatesofbiomassinordertosetquotasorTACstoconstrainfishingmortalityinyearswhenrecruitmentislow.Suchbiomassestimates(suchas through the egg production method) require relatively expensive research vessels as well as appropriate technical capacity. Furthermore, the management authorities would need the means to actually implement the effort controls and partners in the industry that would agree to such limits on their activity. Currently theplanproposeslicensingthroughtheCFMAs,vialocalgovernmentauthoritiesforthesmall-scalefishers,andbytheMinistryforsemi-industrialfisheries.TheCFMAscurrentlylackthecapacitytoperformthisrole.52 There will also be a need for negotiation for the allocation of quotas or permits between small-scale fisheriesandthesemi-industrial/industrialfisheriesandintheallocationoffishinggrounds.

UnderaforthcomingWorldBank/GEFprogrammeentitled“SWIOFISH”,thesmallpelagicfisheryhasbeenidentifiedasapriorityfishery(alongwithfiveothers).ThispresentstheURTwithagoodopportunitytodevelop the necessary information and management structures to rigorously apply the plan. However, during variouspreparatorymeetingsandworkshopsheldunderthepre-appraisalmission(pers.obs.)thesmallpelagicfisheryisbeinglinedupforexpansion,partlytoreducefishingpressureonotherfisheries,particularlyoncoralreefbasedfisheries.Theproductivityoftheselatterfisheriesisthreatenedbothbyoverfishingandbyenvironmentaldisturbance,principallyfrombleachingepisodes(whichmayormaynotbedirectlyrelatedtoanthropogenicclimatechange).Giventhehighcomplexityandnaturalvariabilityofsmallpelagicecosystems,thelackofdataonthefisheryandthedifficultiesinidentifyingclearpotentialresponsesofsmallpelagicfishto anthropogenic climate change, caution is required by decision-makers who may be tempted to look at the smallpelagicfisheryasago-tofisherythatcanabsorbexcesscapacityfromotherfisheries.

51. Hilborn&Walters,1992;Walters,2003.52. Anderson&Mwangamilo,2013.

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richardson, a.J., Mitchell-Innes, B.a., Fowler, J.L., Bloomer, S.F., Verheye, H.M., Field, J.g., Hutchings, L. & Painting, S.J.1988.TheeffectofseatemperatureandfoodavailabilityonthespawningsuccessofCapeAnchovyEngraulis capensis in the Southern Benguela. African Journal of Marine Science,19:275−290.

Samoilys, M.a., Maina, g.W. & osuka, k.2011.ArtisanalfishinggearsoftheKenyanCoast.Kenya,Mombasa.CORDIO/USAID.

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Solomon, S., Qin, d. Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., avery, k.B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L., eds. 2007.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA.CambridgeUniversityPress.Availableathttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html.

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Taylor, g.T., Muller-karger, F.E., Thunell, r.C., Scranton, M.I., astor, Y., Varela, r., Troccoli, L., ghinaglia, L., Lorenzoni, L., Fanning, k.a., Hameed, S. & doherty, o. 2012. Ecosystem responses in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,109(47).DOI:10.1073/pnas.1207514109.

Tulley, L.2013.SIO210:IndianOceancirculation−monsoons,tropicalandoverturning.Availableathttp://www-pord.ucsd.edu/~ltalley/sio210/Indian/.

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Twatwa, n.M., van der Lingen, C.d., drapeau, L., Moloney, C.L. & Field, J.g. 2005. Characterising and comparing the spawning habitats of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem. African Journal of Marine Science,27(2):487−499.

Van der Elst, r., Everett, B., Jiddawi, n.S., Mwatha, g., Santana-afonso, P. & Boulle, d. 2005. Fish, fishersandfisheriesoftheWesternIndianOcean:theirdiversityandstatus.Apreliminaryassessment.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society,363:263−284.

Vecchi, g.a., Soden, B.J., Wittenberg, a.T., Held, I.M., Leetmaa, a. & Harrison, M.J. 2006. Weakening oftropicalPacificatmosphericcirculationduetoanthropogenicforcing.Nature,441:73–6.

Wakwabi, E.o.1981.SardinefisheryinKenya.KenyaMarineandFisheriesResearchInstitute,Mombasa,Kenya.

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Chapter 2: The small pelagic fisheries of Tanzania

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Chapter 3

THE CoraL rEEF FISHErIES oF SEYCHELLES

By Jim Anderson

Independent consultant, Ville-la-Grand, France

Melita Samoilys Coastal Oceans Research and Development – Indian Ocean (CORDIO East Africa),

Nairobi, Kenya

photo credit: Melita Samoilys

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Chapter3:ThecoralreeffisheriesofSeychelles

Contents ...............................................................................................................................................Page

1. The Seychelles .................................................................................................................................. 64

2. Ecological component ...................................................................................................................... 66

2.1. Exposure ........................................................................................................................... 66

2.1.1. Sea surface temperature ................................................................................................... 68

2.1.2.Oceanacidificationandcoralreefs ................................................................................... 70

2.2. The sensitivity of Seychelles’ coral reef ecosystems ........................................................ 71

2.2.1. Coral reefs ......................................................................................................................... 71

2.2.2.Reeffish ............................................................................................................................ 73

2.2.3. Coral reef macro-invertebrates ......................................................................................... 76

2.3. Recovery potential ............................................................................................................ 76

2.3.1. Coral reefs ......................................................................................................................... 76

2.3.2.Reeffish ............................................................................................................................ 78

3. Social component ............................................................................................................................. 80

3.1. Ecological vulnerability .................................................................................................... 80

3.2. Social sensitivity ............................................................................................................... 81

3.2.1. The economic value of coral reef ecosystems in Seychelles ............................................. 81

3.2.2.Thecoralreeffishery ........................................................................................................ 82

3.3. Adaptivecapacity ............................................................................................................. 85

4. Socio-ecological vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 89

5. Coralreeffisheriesmanagementimplications .................................................................................. 90

6. References ........................................................................................................................................ 93

Appendix1:MarineprotectedareasofSeychelles ............................................................................... 99

ListoffiguresFigure 1: Location of Seychelles in the WIO ................................................................................... 64

Figure 2: The inner islands of Seychelles ......................................................................................... 65

Figure 3: Mean expert weighting attributed to DoC of Seychelles’ coral reef ecosystems ...................... 67

Figure 4: Reefs at Risk assessment of Seychelles inner islands ....................................................... 67

Figure5: WIODHWandbleachingsusceptibilityinApril1998 .................................................... 68

Figure6: NOAAchangeinSSTfrom1948to2006relativetothe1960to1990period ................. 69

Figure7: Ωaragonitefor280,380and450ppmofatmosphericconcentration .............................. 70

Figure 8: Relative diversity of coral taxa across the WIO ................................................................ 71

Figure9: LivecoralcoveratSeychellesGCRMNsites1997to2007 ............................................. 72

62

Figure 10: Relative abundance and bleaching response of coral genera ............................................ 73

Figure 11: Fish species count across the WIO.................................................................................... 73

Figure12: Temporalchangesinspeciesrichnessbytrophicgroup(Seychelles) ............................... 74

Figure 13: Relationship between the change in structural complexity and the changeinfishspeciesrichnessofSeychellesreefsfrom1994to2005 ............................ 75

Figure14: Responsediversityinfourprimaryfunctionalgroupsofreeffishaftercoralbleaching .. 75

Figure15: Coralreefhabitatsbefore/after1998bleachingattwositesinSeychelles ....................... 77

Figure16: ChangeincoralcoveratAldabraAtoll1999to2006 ....................................................... 78

Figure 17: Changes in abundance and diversity of piscivores at four sites in Seychelles .................. 79

Figure18: Scaledscientificevidenceforfactorsdeterminingrecoverypotential .............................. 80

Figure19: Ecologicalfeedbackprocessesonacoralreefshowingpathwaysof disturbance caused by climate change .............................................................................. 81

Figure 20: Components of economic value of coral reef ecosystems ................................................ 81

Figure21: Estimateofcatchbyvesseltype(2006to2011) ............................................................... 83

Figure22: CatchdataforSeychelles(1998to2011) ......................................................................... 83

Figure23: Small-scalefisherycatchcomposition(2000to2011)bySFAcategory .......................... 84

Figure24: Abundanceindices(±SE)forSeychelles’principalreeffisheries beforeandafterthe1998bleachingevent ........................................................................ 85

Figure25: Netincome(±SE)ofSeychelles’principalreeffisheriesgear beforeandafter1988bleachingevent .............................................................................. 85

Figure 26: Weighted contribution of eight indicators of adaptive capacity ........................................ 86

Figure27: Small-scalefishingeffortbymajorvesseltype(1998to2011) ........................................ 87

Figure28: Catchdeclinethresholdsforexitingthesmall-scalefisheryinSeychelles ....................... 87

Figure29: Socialadaptivecapacityindexandecologicalpristineness .............................................. 89

Figure 30: Model of conservation priorities and actions within the three axes of environment, ecology and society .................................................................................... 90

List of tablesTable1: SummaryofmajormarinehabitattypesofSeychelles ..................................................... 65

Table 2: Summary of threats to Seychelles coral reef ecosystems .................................................. 66

Table 3: The components of value of marine/coastal ecosystems in Seychelles ............................ 82

Table4: MonitoringofMPAsinSeychelles ................................................................................... 88

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

1. The Seychelles

The Seychelles is an archipelago of 115 atolls and granitic islands, with an EEZ extending from approximately 0˚34’Sto12˚34’S,andfrom43˚Eto59˚E.TheEEZ,withanareaofapproximately1 1 374 000 km² and the islands are presented in Figure 1. The population was 88 311 in 2010.2

Themajorgeologicalcharacteristicofthearchipelagoisthattheso-called“innerislands”(e.g.Mahé,Praslin,Silhouette)aregranitic,whilethe“outerislands”(e.g.Aldabra)arelargelycoralline(Figure2).Theareaoflandisestimatedat246km².Theestimateoftotalareaofcoralreefdependsonthesource;forexample,theGCRMNestimatesatotalarea3of1690km²withanareaof40km²aroundtheinnerislands,whileAndréfouëtet al.(2009)estimatedthetotalcoralreefareaat5443km².AreasonforthisdifferenceisproposedbyAndréfouëtasbeingtheinclusionof“deepterraceswithconstructionsfoundinbarrierreef,banksandatollsrespectively”,whichcontributed70percent(or3490km²)totheoverallestimate.Thus5443minus3490equals1950,whichisacloserfittotheGCRMNestimate.

Table1presentsasummaryofthemajormarinehabitatsofSeychelles.

1. Jennings et al., 2000.2. TheWorldBankGroup,2012.3. Wilkinson, 2008.

Figure 1: Location of Seychelles in the WIO

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Figure 2: The inner islands of Seychelles

Table 1:SummaryofmajormarinehabitattypesofSeychelles

reef type aldabra atoll

The amirantes

Seychelles Bank

Cosmoledo & Farquhar Coëtivy Ile

desroches

atoll lagoon 168 152 129

atoll patch 5 14

atoll rim 72 270 62

Bank barrier 2 135 41

Bank lagoon 1 614 279

Bank patch 34

drowned bank

Island lagoon 31194

Shelf patch-reef complex 5 366

ocean-exposed fringing reef 505

(source:Andréfouëtet al.,2009)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

2. Ecological component

2.1. ExposureThere are a number of threats to coral reef ecosystems and a summary of these as they relate to Seychelles is presented in Table 2.

Table 2: Summary of threats to Seychelles coral reef ecosystems (source:Anderson,2011)

Globalchangethreats The Seychelles context

Coral bleaching

ThemajorityofreefsinSeychellessufferedaveryhighdegreeofbleachingin1998.Onestudyconductedat14sitesaroundSeychellesrevealedbetween50and90percentmortalityasaresultofrecentbleaching.4 It is possible that up to 10 percent of corals bleached and died in 2010.5 Recovery has been slow, especially around the granitic islands.6

Diseases, plagues and invasive species

Nosignificantdata.In2005,withthesupportofTotalCorporateFoundationandincollaborationwiththeGovernmentoftheSeychelles,theInternationalUnionforConservationofNature(IUCN)conductedabaselinesurveyofMahéPortandsomeoutlying sites. No records of invasive species were detected outside the Port although sevenspeciesofbryozoans,amphipods,anascidianandaspongewererecordedthatwere not native, or whose origin was unknown.7

Direct human pressures

Overfishing

SpawningaggregationsofEpinephelidaeandSiganidaearethreatened.Lutjanidpopulationsareunderpressure.Seacucumberfisheriesarenowunderstrictmanagement but there is a high degree of pressure from export markets. The lobster fisheryhasexperiencedboomsandbustsbutisbelievedtoberelativelyrobustowingto depth refugia.

Sedimentation

LandreclamationaroundVictoria,butarelativelyshort-livedphenomenon.Remnantcoral cover was highest on reefs dominated by low diversity coral communities largely composed of stress tolerant species such as Porites and Goniopora, with low structuralcomplexity.TheseoccurredinareasofhighturbidityinBeauVallonBayandadjacenttotheharbouronMahé,whichmayhaveescapedhighsolarradiationduring the bleaching event, but were at risk from land-based activities. Sedimentation is an increasing problem owing to uncontrolled slope clearance, poor agricultural practices and a lack of resources for planning.8

Nutrients and chemical pollution

Run-off from coastal settlements/hotels.9AnEIAsystemisinplacebuttherearenospecificstandardsforpollutioncontrol.TheStrategicActionProgrammedevelopedbytheproject“Addressingland-basedActivitiesintheWesternIndianOcean (WIO-LaB)”indicateseutrophicationandchemicalpollutioninPortVictoriaandeastcoastMahé,andeutrophicationinBeauVallonBay.10

Development of coastal areas

Significantdevelopmentoftourismfacilities,onMahéinparticular.TheEnvironmentManagementPlanofSeychelles(EMPS)hasatourismthematicareato ensure standards are met for development in terms of waste disposal, etc. The Tourism Master Plan is cognisant of potential damage from tourism development on theenvironment.LandreclamationaroundVictoriaonMahéIsland(e.g.EdenIsland)and on Praslin Island covering 345 ha for tourism and local housing development. Thenumberofvisitorsincreasedfromabout129000in2000toabout175000in201011andtourismcountsfor25.5percentofnationalGDP(2008figures).

4. Goreau,1998.5. Cauvin et al., 2010.6. GEF,2010.7. Abdullaet al., 2007.8. Dogley,2005;Cauvinet al., 2010.9. AdaptationFund,2011.10. UNEP/NCS,2009.11. SeychellesNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS),2013.

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Lagabrielle et al. (2009)undertookanassessmentof the relative importanceofeightDoCs tocoralreef ecosystem functions in the WIO. The assessment was based on the expert opinion of 50 workshop participants. The results for Seychelles were extracted from the analyses and are presented in Figure 3 withcoastalfisheries,tourismandsedimentationdeterminedbytheexpertstobethemostsignificantDoC for the Seychelles.

Thisanalysisdidnot specifically includeany climate change-related variable such as coral bleaching, which is therefore an additionalDoC.TheeightDoCidentifiedhere will continue to affect the coral reef ecosystem and interact with climate change-relatedeffects.Grahamet al.(2013)observed that “…much of the ongoingdeterioration of coral reefs is attributable to centuries of local human impacts, includingoverfishinganddecliningwaterquality…furtherhighlightingtheneedtoaddress local chronic drivers of change in order to reverse phase shifts and maintain coral dominated reefs”.

Figure 4 presents a summary of the Reefs at Risk12assessmentofthespatialdistributionofthreatstoSeychelles’coralreefecosystems;thesethreatscovercoastaldevelopment,marine-basedpollution,watershed-basedpollution,overfishinganddestructivefishingandarecombinedintoan“integratedlocalthreat”index.Thesedatarelateonlytocoastalreefsanddo not provide an insight into the extent of threats to the deeper reef systems on the banks.

12. Burke et al., 2011.

Figure4:ReefsatRiskassessmentofSeychellesinnerislands(source:Burkeet al., 2011)

Figure 3: Mean expert weighting attributed to DoC of Seychelles’coralreefecosystems(source:redrawnfromLagabrielle et al.,2009)

Fisheries: Coastal

Watershed Pollution

Tourism Activities

Shipping activities

Proximity to urban areas

Fisheries: Shore Gathering

Fisheries: Pelagic

Land-sourcedsedimentation

Industrial

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

NotwithstandingtherangeofexistingDoCandriskfactors,themajorclimatechange-associatedthreatfaced by coral reef ecosystems that will be addressed in this assessment is that of coral bleaching, withadditionalobservationsonoceanacidification.Thefollowingsectionswillpresenttheavailableinformation on the potential exposure of Seychelles to these threats.

2.1.1. Sea surface temperature Tropical surface waters are often depleted of phosphorus and nitrogen, which are important nutrients formarineorganisms,forexampleforthesynthesisofDNA,RNA,proteinsandphospholipids.13 The keycharacteristicofthephysiologyofreef-building(orscleractinia)corals–andonethatmakesSSTakeyfactorintheirsurvival–isthattheyareobligatehostsofdinoflagellatesymbiontsofthegenusSymnbiodinium,whicharemorecommonlyknownaszooxanthellae.14 The driver for this symbiosis is that the zooxanthellae can concentrate scarce dissolved nutrients and transform them, throughphotosynthesis,intoorganicmolecules(aminoacids,sugars,complexcarbohydratesandsmallpeptides)that are then transferred back to their host corals;15 in some taxa the zooxanthellae also acceleratecalcification.Zooxanthellaeontheotherhandarealsolimitedbytheselowconcentrationsofdissolvednutrientsandbenefitfromtheexcretoryammoniumproducedbytheirhosts.16

Inthesituationofhigh(oratleastanomalous)SST,the“photosyntheticmachinery”17ofzooxanthellaeis degraded and the resulting over production of oxygen radicals can lead to cellular damage to both the zooxanthellaeandthehostcoral,leadingtoareductioninpigmentconcentrationorexpulsionofthesymbiont.Thisistermedcoralbleaching.Alltaxadonotshowthesamedegreeofwhiteningthatledtothe term bleaching being used.

In fact, it is the duration of the SST anomalies that is one of the most crucial factors in determining the occurrence and extent of bleaching events. This is conveyed by the terms “degree heating weeks”, or months.DHWrepresentsthecumulativeheatstressthatismanifestedandsignificantcoralbleachingoccurswhenDHWreach4°C-weeks(fourweeksofSSTof1°CabovethehistoricalsummermaximumSST).18WhenDHWreaches8°C-weeks,rathermorewidespreadbleachingisprobableandsignificantmortalityofcoralsislikely.TheSeychelleswasexposedtosignificantlevelsofDHWprior/duringthecatastrophic1998bleachingevent.Figure5presentsdataontheDHWforApril1998andassociatedsusceptibility for the entire WIO, with Seychelles marked.

13. Bythell,1990;Godinotet al., 2011.14. Baker et al., 2008.15. e.g.Muscatine&D’Elia,1978;Hoegh-Guldberg,1999.16. Bythell,1990.17. Baker et al., 2008.18. Logan et al., 2012.

Figure5:WIODHWandbleachingsusceptibilityinApril1998(source:Mainaet al., 2008)

68

However, the predictive power of simple SST/DHW is actually somewhat limited.19 Maina et al. (2008),buildingonearlier researchbyMcClanahanet al. (2007b)amongothers,developedamorecomplex analysis by incorporating a number of other potential oceanographic and atmospheric factors intotheirmodels.Theyreportedthataninterplayofthreevariables−SSTvariability,temperatureandUVincidence−arebestabletopredictbleaching.TheyarguedthatSSTvariabilityactuallyconferredan advantage because it exposed corals to sub-lethal periods of high temperatures, allowing acclimation andadaptation.However,SeychellesischaracterizedbylowtemperaturevariabilitybuthighUV,andhigh mean SST. The persistence of the deeper thermocline in the WIO results from interactions with the normally shallow Chagos Seychelles thermocline ridge.20 These phenomena enhance each other and lead to a deepening of the thermocline and the warming of the WIO’s surface waters because of their isolation from the cooler waters found at depth.21

IntheWIO,therearetwoprincipledriversthatcanleadtoSSTanomalies(andcriticalDHWscenarios):theENSOthattakesplaceinthePacificOceanandtheIOD.22 The IOD is usually triggered by ENSO events butitcanoccurindependently,whichwasfirstshownonlyinthelate1990s.McClanahanet al.(2007b)notedthattheENSOeventsof1982to1983,1987to1988and1997to1998correlatedwiththehighestmeanSSTsintheWIO.AlthoughsubsequentENSOeventsoccurredin2002,2003and2010andalsoled to some bleaching in Seychelles,23 there are important differences in the ways in which ENSO and IODeventsleadtoSSTanomalies;ENSO-forcedSSTanomaliesaredrivenbychangesinsurfaceheatfluxes (themselvesdrivenbySSTanomalies in thePacific that effect theWalker circulation),while IOD-forced SST anomalies are forced by wind-driven changes in thermocline depth.24

In terms of the potential outlook for the ocean temperature regime in the vicinity of Seychelles Meyers andWeerts(2009)arguedthatclimatechange-forcedshoalingofthemixedlayermayleadtosignificantdecreases in surface and subsurface temperatures in the WIO between Seychelles, Madagascar and the MozambiqueChannel.ThiswouldimplyareducedexposuretowarmSSTanomalies.Chang-Seng(2007)notes that existing time series SST data for the WIO region, and for Seychelles in particular, are somewhat contradictory,althoughSSTanomalydataforMahégeneratedbytheUnitedKingdom’sClimateResearchUnitsuggestedanincreaseinthenumberofpositive(warm)SSTanomaliessincethe1980s.

Chang-Seng also reported NOAA data for the WIO(Figure6),whichsuggeststhat the Seychelles (blackbox on figure 6) has notbeen exposed to an overall increase in SST, although the potential impact of ENSO events and the IOD in forcing conditions with significant SST anomaliesremains.

The IPCC has reported only “low confidence inthe current understanding of how (or if) climatechange will influence the

19. e.g. Maina et al.,2008;Loganet al., 2012.20. Hermes&Reason,2009;Currieet al., 2013.21. Xieet al.,2002;Currieet al., 2013.22. e.g. Baker et al., 2008.23. GovernmentofSeychelles,2011.24. Currie et al., op cit.

Figure6:NOAAchangeinSSTfrom1948to2006relativetothe1960to1990period

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

behaviour of ENSO and other long-term climate patterns”,25 while Collins et al. (2010) stated that “Asfarasweknow,(ENSO)couldintensify,weaken,orevenundergolittlechangedependingonthebalance of changes in the underlying processes”.

Bleachingcanalsotakeplacewhennutrientlevelsarehigh(e.g.nitrogen)becauseofthe“over-population”ofhostsbyzooxanthellaepreviouslylimitedbynutrientsupply.ThereisunlikelytobesignificantexposuretothisthreatinSeychelles,exceptperhapsverylocallyowingtourban/tourismdevelopment(whichin2002ranked119thoutof162countries,withanindexof0.7intermsoffertilizerused,withjust170gramsper hectare of arable land, compared to Sri Lanka, for example, with a use of 3 103 grams/ha).

2.1.2. Ocean acidification and coral reefsAn introduction to the phenomenonof ocean acidification was providedin the general introduction and this section will focus on acidification asit relates to coral reefs. The principal impact of acidification on corals isreduced calcification and growth. Evenan increase in the CO2 concentration to just 560 ppm may reduce calcificationand growth by up to 40 percent. The mechanism causing this reduced calcification relates to the formation ofaragonite, the principal crystalline form of calcium carbonate that is deposited as coral skeletons. With increased acidification,andtheassociateddecreasein carbonate ion concentrations, formation of aragonite is inhibited. Field studies show that the critical value of aragonite saturation (Ωarag) is 3.3 which is a value expected at CO2 concentrations of 480 ppm and when carbonate ion concentrations drop below 200mmol kg-1 (Figure 7).26 The derived mean global value of Ωarag was 3.8 (SD = 0.09) in1999, a decline from 4.6 since 1900,suggesting net calcification has alreadydecreased on some reefs.27

There are likely to be three main effects:

• Reducedgrowth(linearextensionrate),afeaturealreadyobservedontheGreatBarrierReefatarateequivalenttoa20.6percentfallingrowthrateovera16-yearperiodofobservations;

• Corals may maintain their physical extension or growth rate by reducing skeletal density. If erosion (causedbygrazerssuchasparrotfishorincreasedstormdamage,alsoassociatedwithsomeanalysesofclimatechangeimpacts)outstripscalcification,thiswillfurtherdiminishcoralreefstructures,withconcomitanteffectsonorganismsthatrequirecertainhabitatquality,complexity,etc.(Ironically,fisheries are reducing abundance of coral reef fishes, including parrotfish, therefore presumablyreducingthecontributionofgrazingfishtoerosion).Reducedstructuralintegritywillinturnreducethe coastal protection provided by coral reefs.28

25. IPCC, 2014.26. Hoegh-Guldberget al., 2007.27. Kleypas et al.,1999.28. Sheppard et al., 2005.

Figure7:Ωaragonitefor280,380and450ppmofatmosphericconcentration(source:Hoegh-Guldberg,2005)

70

• Coralsmaymaintaingrowthandskeletaldensitybutonlybyinvestinggreaterenergyincalcification.This will divert energy from other processes, such as reproduction and therefore reduce the population’sabilitytosustainand/orrecolonize.

Unsurprisingly there is no consensus within the scientific community on the potential impacts ofacidification.Hoegh-Guldberg(2005)reportedtheresearchofLoughandBarnes(2000),whoarguedthatreducedcalcificationfromchangesinpHwouldbeatleastpartiallycompensatedforbyincreasedratesofcalcificationowingtotheriseinthetemperatureoftheoceans.WhileHoffmanet al.(2011)arguedthatnaturalvariabilityinpHwasinsufficientlyintegratedintoanalysesofacidificationandthat“Naturalvariability may occur at rates much higher than the rate at which carbon dioxide is decreasing ocean pH”, theirresearchfound“astrikinglyconsistentpatternofdielfluctuationsoverthe30-dayrecordingperiod”at their coral reef sites.29 They suggest, therefore, that reef organisms may be adapted to deal with a range of pH,althoughtheyrecognizethattherearemanyfactorsindeterminingcalcificationratesbeyondseawaterchemistry and it may be a question of sustained reduced pH that is the critical difference associated with climatechange.Acidificationisalsobelievedtoplayaroleindeterminingbleachingsensitivity.30

2.2. The sensitivity of Seychelles’ coral reef ecosystems 2.2.1. Coral reefsDetermining the sensitivity of a coral reef ecosystem to climate change is particularly challenging becauseof thediversityofspeciesofbothcoralsandfish thatcomprisesuchanecosystem,and thecomplexity of their interactions. The exposure of Seychelles’ reefs to thermal conditions likely to lead to bleaching may be mitigated or exacerbated by a number of other variables. Bleaching susceptibility may also be determined by the coral taxa present, and by the genetic characteristics of the symbiont zooxanthellae.Coralsmay be able to adjust their physiologicalmechanisms to reduce bleaching oracquirezoonxanthellaethataremorethermallyresistant.31

The reefs of the Seychelles comprise an estimated 174 species of coral in 55 genera,32 although recent estimates suggest up to 217 species are present.33 The Seychelles by no means has the most diverse coral reefecosystemsintheWIO,particularlywhencomparedtothecoastalareasofsouthernKenya,Tanzania,northernMozambique,Comoros,MayotteandnorthwestMadagascar.Figure8presentsdatagatheredby McClanahan et al.(2007a)ontherelativediversityofcoraltaxaintheWIO.UNEP(2011)suggestsarather more diverse ecosystem, however, stating that 67 percent of the genera-level and 88 percent of the family-level diversity of hard corals in the region are represented in Seychelles.

Theeffectsofcoralbleachingevents inSeychelleshavebeendramatic,particularly the1998event.Payet et al.(2005)reportedan80percentmortalityofcoralreefs in Seychelles. Buckley et al. (2008), citing variousauthors, including Teleki et al.(1999),Spenceret al.(2000),SpaldingandJarvis (2002),andMcClanahanet al. (2007a)reported that coral mortality on the outer reefs of the southern Seychelles ranged from 60 to 75 percent, and losses of live coral cover were as high as 60 percent. The World Heritage SiteofAldabraAtollandtheislandsofAssumption,Astoveand St Pierre showed losses of up to 50 percent of live coral. Pratchett et al.(2011),citingJennings(unpub.data),reporteda reduction in coral cover from 23 to 50 percent before the bleaching, to 0 to 17 percent after.

29. Hofmann et al., 2011, p.7.30. Hoegh-Guldberg,2005.31. Carilli et al., 2012.32. McClanahan et al., 2007a.33. Obura et al., 2012.

Figure 8: Relative diversity of coral taxa across the WIO (source:McClanahanet al., 2007a)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

TheWilkinson(2008)reportedonthemortalityofcoralsatoneofitsmonitoringsites(TernayBay,onthewestcoastofMahé)andatSilhouetteIsland.TernayBayexperienceda95percentcoralmortality,with complete mortality of Acropora spp.Anoverallpictureofthedramaticreductioninlivecoralcoverin theWIOsince1997wasalsopresented in theGCRMN2008GlobalAnnualReport; thedataforSeychelleswereextractedtocreateFigure9.

McClanahan et al.(2007a)reportedontheiranalysisofthedifferentialresponseofcoraltaxaacrosstheWIOtothebleachingeventsof1998and2005.Usingunderwatervisualcensus(UVC)coralswereidentifiedtogenusandallocatedintooneofsevenbleachingintensities(c1=normal;c2=palelivecoral;c3=0−20%;c4=20−50%;c5=50−80%;c6=80−100%of thelivecoralsurfaceareafullybleached;andc7=recentlydead).Thebleachingresponse(BR)forasitewascalculatedasaweightedaverageandnormalized.Hierarchicalclusteranalysiswasusedtoidentifysimilaritiesofcompositionbygenusacrossthe91sitesthatweresampled,fromwhicheightdistinctcommunitieswereidentified.Thefivesites/coralcommunitiesofSeychellesweremembersoftwoclusters:

• Cluster5(IleCoco,BaieLaizare,BeauVallonandBaieTernay,post-1998data)withLaReunion,andtheMPAsofsouthernKenya;and,

• Cluster6(LaRéserve,2005data)withnortheastMadagascar(1998and2005data),Mauritius(2004data)andKenya(1998data).

Figure 10 presents the results of the relative abundance of each genus and its BR for Cluster 5, in whichthemajorityoftheSeychellessiteswerelocated.Forthisclusterthedominantgeneraintermsof relative abundance were Pocillopora, Porites(massive)andAcropora, which were observed to vary in terms of BR, with the Porites being the least vulnerable to bleaching compared to Pocillopora and Acropora. It has been shown, for example, that Porites cylindrica was able to tolerate exposure to elevated temperatures (and inorganic nutrients)without losing symbioticmicroalgae or chlorophyllpigments, although the photosynthetic capacity was affected.34 The BR of Cluster 6, in which Seychelles alsohasrepresentation,wassignificantlyhigherthanforCluster5.

34. Nordemar et al., 2003.

Figure9:LivecoralcoveratSeychellesGCRMNsites1997to2007(source:redrawnfromWilkinson,2008)

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2.2.2. Reef fishThereareanestimated400 to749speciesofcoral reefassociatedfish.35 Figure 11 presents data on fishspeciescountsacrosstheWIO(withSeychelleshighlighted),where0−1representsincreasingfishspecies counts.

ThereisgenerallyinsufficientunderstandingtoprovideadetailedassessmentofthesensitivityofcoralreeffishesinSeychellestodirectclimatechange-relatedenvironmentalchange,suchasincreasedlevelsof dissolved CO �andtheresultingacidificationoftheocean.Atleastinthenearfuture,themajorthreatis going to be indirect, from the loss of habitat and ecosystem function as a result of periodic coral bleaching, a phenomenon that is predicted by some researchers to increase in frequency.36

Inanycase,thedirecteffectsoncoralreeffishpopulationsofoceanacidificationareasyetpoorlyunderstood.Itispossible that recruitment will be affected, with eggs and larvalfishlikelytobevulnerabletobothCO2 and low pH levels, although known lethal levels of CO2 are outside the range predicted for 2100.37Amorelikelyscenarioisthatacidificationwillhaveanimpactonbotheggsandlarvae, and on their planktonic food sources, therefore reducingsurvivalrates.Acidificationmayalsoconstrainlater growth rates, which in turn may affect fertility or have other sub-lethal physiological effects.38 Ferrari et al. (2012) showed that, at least over the short-termand in laboratory conditions, raised CO2 concentrations (at levels predicted for the future), could reduce the

35. Payet et al., 2005.36. e.g.Hoegh-Guldberg,1999.37. Kita et al., 2014.38. Fosså et al., Nd.

Figure10:Relativeabundanceandbleachingresponseofcoralgenera(source:McClanahanet al., 2007a)

Figure 11: Fish species count across the WIO (source:McClanahanet al., 2007a)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

cognitiveabilityofjuveniledamselfish(Pomacentrus amboinensis) to learn appropriate responses in the presence of visual or odour cues from a common predator.

Theeffectsofthelossofcoralreefcoverandstructureissignificant.Wilsonet al.(2006)undertookameta-analysis of 17 independent studies, and observed that 62 percent of fish species declined inabundance within three years of a loss of more than 10 percent in coral cover. Loss of structural complexity(orrugosity)isanimportantfeatureforanumberofreasons,notleastbeingtheresultantincreased post settlement mortality. This would be because of a lack of hiding places and appropriate foodfornewlysettledjuveniles.39 While some local extinctions of albeit highly coral-dependent species have been reported,40 an important effect is likely to be in reduced ecological function, particularly as it relates to herbivorous species.

Grahamet al. (2006)examinedchanges inspeciesrichness inrelation tovariations in thestructuralcomplexityofcoralreefsovertheperiod1994to2005at21sitesinSeychelles.Figure12showsthechanges in species richness for each site by trophic grouping. It is clear that where sites have lost coral reefstructure(therighthandsideofthehistorgram)thereareimportantlossesofspecies,particularlyamongst corallivores, herbivores and omnivores, and to a lesser extent piscivores. Where sites have retainedtheirreefstructure(thelefthandsideofthehistogram)therearenetgainsinspeciesnumbers,except for corallivores and planktivores.

FurtherresultsfromGrahamet al.(2006)arepresentedinFigure13,thistimelookingatlossesbyhabitattype.Thekeyfindinghereisthatlossofphysicalstructureisthemostimportantfactorindrivingdownspecies richness on coral reefs, with the declines most notable on carbonate and patch coral reefs, compared tothegranite-basedreefs.Grahamet al.(2006)arguethatthisexplainswhymoreinstantaneousimpactsonfishassemblagesarenotobserved,giventhatcoralstructuresdonotcollapseimmediatelyafterbleachingoccurs.Anothersalutaryfindingisthattheresultsdidnotprovideanyevidenceofanysortofthresholdofstructural complexity below which no further decline of species richness was observed. In other words, the greater the loss of structural complexity, the greater the loss of species richness. For the Seychelles, which has experienced at least four bleaching episodes of varying degrees of severity over the previous 15 or

39. Hoegh-Guldberget al., 2013.40. e.g. Pratchett et al., 2006.

Figure12:Temporalchangesinspeciesrichnessbytrophicgroup(Seychelles)(source:Grahamet al., 2006)

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soyears,thelossofsignificanthabitatcomplexityisarealthreatanditsconcomitantimpactsonfuturefisheriesopportunitiesobvious.

Alsolookingathowspeciesandtheir functional groups of fishrespond to coral beaching and the loss of coral cover, Pratchett et al.(2011)showedthatwithinfour primary functional groups (corallivores, herbivores,planktivores and carnivores) there was a range of responses in terms of increased or decreased abundance. These findings arepresented in Figure 14. The arrows are median responses for each group and the open/white column represents “no change”. The response variable was calculated for each individual species relative to the proportional loss of coral. Therefore, a 10 percent decrease in coral cover and a 30 percent decrease in fishabundancewouldrepresentathree-folddecreaseinabundance.

Pratchett et al.(2011)showedthatcorallivoresdemonstratedthelowestrangeofresponse(asquantifiedbyakurtosisof5.2),comparedtoakurtosisofgreaterthan45fortheothergroups.Andtheseresponseswerelargely declines in abundance. This is perhaps not surprising given the feeding ecology of corallivores.

However, the negative median response in all four of the groups indicates that, despite the relative diversity of responses in carnivores for example (which showed the highest kurtosis at 219),more

Figure14:Responsediversityinfourprimaryfunctionalgroupsofreeffishaftercoralbleaching (source:redrawnfromPratchettet al., 2011)

Figure 13: Relationship between the change in structural complexity and thechangeinfishspeciesrichnessofSeychellesreefsfrom1994to2005(source:Grahamet al., 2006)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

species showed a reduced abundance than showed an increased abundance. For the carnivores, which contribute significantly to Seychelles’ small-scale reef fishery (mean of 33.5 percent of total catchannually since2000), themedian responsewasnegative (albeit<1-folddecrease in abundance) butwith more than 20 percent of species within the group showing a greater than 10 percent reduction in abundancetoa(relativelymodest)10percentreductionincoralcover.

This researchhighlightsnotonly thecomplexityof the responsesoffish tohabitatdisturbance,butalso that further bleaching events and the likely subsequent reduction in habitat complexity is going toresult inreducedopportunities in thesefisheries, includingfor thedetritivore/herbivorousSiganidfishery(6.2percentoftotalcatchsince2000).TheLethrinidae,whicharebenthicomnivores(includedinPratchett’sfigurewithintheplanktivoregroup)andarealsofairlyimportant inSeychelles’small-scalefishery(6.5percent),appear,atleastfromPratchett’sdata,toshowameanpositiveresponsetocoral bleaching.

However,thereisalsoevidencethatcertainconditionscanmitigateagainstnegativeresponsesoffishcommunities. Buckley et al. (2008)undertookresearchontheWorldHeritage(andthereforelargelyunfished) site ofAldabraAtoll (and adjacent atolls) in Seychelles and failed to observe significantdirectionalchangeinthereeffishassemblage.Althoughtherewasanimportantandrapidchange–aphaseshift–onAldabratoadominanceofRhystimasoftcoral, thiswasn’tthecaseontheadjacentatolls, so it appears that under certain circumstances, perhaps related to the pristineness of the ecosystem and the nature of any post-bleaching structural loss, complex but dead coral habitats can provide the functionsrequiredbyreeffishthatarenotdependentonlivecoral.

2.2.3. Coral reef macro-invertebratesAlthough this case study focusesoncoral reeffisheries, a researchpaperbyFabriciuset al. (2014)proposes some important potential impacts of acidification of oceans to macro-invertebrates, thatthemselves are prey to a rangeoffish species, includingbenthic omnivores such asLethrinidae. Inbrief, the research, focused on volcanic CO2 seepsoffPapuaNewGuinea, in thePacificOcean.Theconclusions are presented as follows:

• “The loss of live coral cover owing to climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances will causeseverelossesnotonlytocoralcoverbutalsotoreef-inhabitingmacro-invertebrates;

• Thelossofrefugiaandhabitatisanimportantadditionalmechanismofhowoceanacidificationwillaffectmacro-invertebratecommunities;

• Oceanacidificationwilldirectlyaffect thephysiology,calcification, reproduction,behaviour,neuronal functions and survival ofmany groups.As sensitivities to these disturbances varybetween groups, we anticipate shifts in food webs, altered competitive advantages and functional replacements in reef communities.”41

2.3. Recovery potential 2.3.1. Coral reefsIn terms of the effect of coral bleaching, there is evidence that both phase shifts and time lag effects are inplaceandbothlinearandnon-linearinteractionsbetweencoralsandfisharelikelytobeimportantindeterminingthecharacteristicsofanyrecovery.Forexample,infieldexperimentsundertakenafterthe2002bleaching event by Hughes et al.(2007)usingcagedversusnon-cagedreefareas,coralpopulationswererecoveredinthoseareascontainingherbivorousfishspeciesthreetimesfasterthanthosewhichdidnot.AssessingtherecoverypotentialofSeychelles’coralreefsfromclimatechangeisthereforechallenging.

Globally,GCRMN42summarizedreportsoncoralreefhealthby240contributorsin98countries,statingthat40percentofreefsthatwereseriouslydamagedbybleachingin1998hadeither“recovered”orwere“recoveringwell”,buttheGCRMNstatedthatnofurtheradditionalquantitativeassessmentshadbeen undertaken.

41. Fabricius et al., 2014, p.7.42. Wilkinson, 2004.

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SpaldingandJarvis(2002)presentedarangeofbefore/afterplotsofhabitatcompositionofcoralreefecosystemsintheSeychellesrelatedtothe1998bleachingevent.TwoofthesesitesarepresentedinFigure15forWestAlphonseandNorthStPierre,bywayofexample.

Note that live coral cover fell dramatically; forWestAlphonse from51 to 7 percent and forNorthStPierrefrom64tojust3percent.InWestAlphonsetheecosystembecamecharacterizedbyrubble,while in North St Pierre algal mat became the dominant feature. This stark difference in resulting habitat characteristics highlights the range of potential outcomes of coral reef bleaching events.

GCRMNcompared data from1997 to 2000 at their Seychellesmonitoring sites and noted importantchangesinthecompositionofcoralcommunities.AtBaieTernay,forexample,thecoverofAcroporawasreducedfrom29percentin1997tozeropercentin1998and1999;andhadonlyrecoveredto0.5percentby2000.Softcorals,ontheotherhand,hadincreasedfrom37percentin1997to87percentin2000.

Payet et al. (2005) reported thatdespite thehighmortalityofcoralcover inSeychelles,many reefshave shown signs of recovery, notably the granitic reefs. It has already been reported in Section 2.2.1 that reefs growing on granitic substrate may have reduced sensitivity to the longer-term effects of coral bleachingevents.However,referencetoFigure9showingthelivecoralcoveratGCRMNsitesintheSeychelles suggests that view is generally rather optimistic.

Ledlie et al.(2007)highlightedthelonger-termeffectofbleachingonmeancoralcoveraroundCousinIsland Special Reserve, where extensive coral mortality led to a phase shift from coral to algal dominance (greaterthan40percentcoverofmacroalgaeinsomeareas)andareductioninlivecoralcovertolessthan 1 percent.

GCRMN43 reported recovery of live coral cover to 24.6 percent off Mahé Island and in Curieuse Marine National Park by 2007. However, these positive signs have been tempered by observations that recovery

43. Wilkinson, 2008.

Figure15:Coralreefhabitatsbefore/after1998bleachingattwositesinSeychelles(source:Spalding&Jarvis, 2002)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

is patchy at best,with some sitesmaintaining very low live coral cover of just 5 percent.Overall,across the inner islands, live coral cover was estimated to have increased from 3.7 percent in 2000, to 10.2percentin2004and11percentin2007.Aldabra,AstoveandAssumptionwerereportedtohaveminimalrecoveryovertheperiod1999to2006,exceptforStPierrewherePocilloporahasincreasedrapidly, a genus that is known to respond well to environmental disturbances (see section 2.2.1). AtAldabra, the encrusting soft coralRhystima has significantly increased, particularly at shallowerdepths.DataforAldabraarepresentedinFigure16.44

Nocommentarycanbeusefullyprovidedonthepotentialrecoveryfromacidificationgiventhelackof evidence of impact to date, but recovery would have to be in the form of adaptation by marine organismsgiventhatacidificationis(atleastintheshort-tomedium-term)aone-waytrip.Inanyevent,acidificationisgoingtoexacerbatetheeffectsofcoralbleaching.

2.3.2. Reef fishFigure 17 presents data on the changes in abundance and diversity of piscivores at four sites in Seychellesaroundthetimeofthe1998bleachingevent(APW=AlphonseWest;SPS=SouthStPierre; SPN=NorthStPierre;CE=CousinIsland).45 These data, although dating from closer to the bleaching

44. Buckley et al., 2008.45. Spalding & Jarvis, 2002.

Figure16:ChangeincoralcoveratAldabraAtoll1999to2006(source:Buckleyet al., 2008)

78

event than those of Pratchett et al., further highlight the diversity of responses, in this case for the importantpiscivoregroupthatarethetargetofimportantcomponentsofthefishery.

ReturningtotheresearchofGrahamet al.(2006)atthe21sites,theiranalysisofdataondiversityandabundanceof39speciesofherbivoressampledin1994(17sites)and2005(21sites)acrossSeychelles’inner islands revealed a lack of recovery over the intervening decade, i.e. a 61 percent decline in mean abundancefor11speciesofgrazersincarbonate-basedreefhabitatandfor10speciesingranitic-basedreef habitat, and a 48 percent decline in mean biomass in patch reef habitat.46 On the other hand, biomass datawasrelativelystable.Grahamet al. suggested that this was because many of the species are long-lived, and therefore biomass remained high owing to the presence of larger individuals of cohorts recruitedpre-1988.Theauthorsraisedconcernsover“atmostaslowrecoveryintheSeychelles”,bothinabsolutetermsandincomparisontoreefselsewhere,inEastAfricaforexample.Theysuggestedthatthis may be a result of the physical isolation of the Seychelles, the loss of habitat complexity and the inability of herbivorous groups to control algae growth. They pointed out that with maximum dispersal limits of about 600 km, the inner Seychelles would be reliant on self-recruitment.

46. Grahamet al., 2006.

Figure17:ChangesinabundanceanddiversityofpiscivoresatfoursitesinSeychelles(source:Spalding& Jarvis, 2002)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

3. Social component3.1. Ecological vulnerabilityMcClanahan et al.(2012)providedasummaryofscaled“weightofscientificevidence”fortheroleofecological factors that support recovery of coral reef communities, with the highest scoring 15 factors presented inFigure18.The list includesa smallnumberof factors related to recoveryofcoralfishspecies that do not appear in the original paper but were included in a subsequent presentation quoting McClanahan et al. (2012) as a source.47 It should be noted that for Seychelles at least, three of the toprankingfactors−nutrients/pollution,physicalhumanimpactsandsedimentation−areunlikelytoconstrainreefcommunityrecoveryowingtotheirlow/localincidence.Ontheotherhand,Grahamet al. (2006)havehighlightedthepotentialconstraintofrecruitmentandconnectivity.

recovery Potential Indicators

Weight of scientificevidence (-5 to 5)

recovery Potential Indicators

Weight of scientificevidence (-5 to 5)

autotrophs/Corals Heterotroph/FishRecruitment 3.85 Fish biomass 4.5Coral to macro-algae cover 3.37 Fishsizedistribution 4Nutrients/Pollution 3.15 Fish species richness 4Resistant coral species 3.07 Herbivore biomass 3.32Fishing pressure 2.96 Herbivore functional diversity 2.46Physical human impacts 2.85Rapidly growing species 2.79Sedimentation 2.58Substrate suitability 2.57Connectivity 2.52Coralsizedistribution 2.5Coral richness 2.5Temperature variability 2.5Coral cover 2.27Coral growth rate 2.26Coral diversity 2.07Proximity to other coastal habitats 2.04Stress-resistant symbionts 2Tidal mixing 1.91Mature colonies 1.74Habitat complexity 1.52Coral disease 1.5Coral-sizeclassdistribution 1.38Upwelling 1.17Topographic complexity 1.04Calcifying to non-calcifying cover 1Light(stress) 0.84

47. Cinner et al., 2013.

Figure18:Scaledscientificevidenceforfactors determining recovery potential (source:McClanahanet al., 2012)

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AusefulprocessdiagramoftheinteractionsbetweenmanyofthefactorsthatappearlikelytodeterminecoralreefrecoverywasdevelopedbyHoegh-Guldberg(2013)andispresentedinFigure19.

3.2. Social sensitivity 3.2.1. The economic value of coral reef ecosystems in SeychellesThewidediversityofcomponentsandprocessesthatcharacterizecoralreefecosystemsarecapturedbynationalandlocaleconomiestogenerateawiderangeofuseandnon-usevalues.Usevaluesincludedirectuse(e.g.fisheries,recreation,tourism,etc.)andindirectuse(e.g.coastalprotection,waterqualitycontrol, etc.). So-called “non-use” values include the categories of existence and bequest values. Existencevaluesareratherdifficulttoquantify,whilebequestvaluesrelatetosafeguardingresourcesforfuturegenerations,andinthatsensemaybemoreeasilyquantified.Examplesofthesevaluesarepresented in Figure 20.

Acidi�cation

Acidi�cation

Acidi�cation

Rugosity

Macro algaeUrchindensity

Grazing�sh

Corallinered algae

Reef scalecoral

fecundity

Density of fecund corals

Bleached and dead

corals

Distancebetweenpatches

Coral recruitment & growth

bio erosion

bioerosion

shelter

grazing

reef accretion reduced connectivity

reduced connectivity

gra zingfo od

competition

algal colonization & reduced grazing intensity

larval supplycoral cover

coral growth habitatloss

reduce allee e�ect

coral loss

competition

settlement of individuals

post-settlementmortality

Figure19:Ecologicalfeedbackprocessesonacoralreefshowingpathwaysofdisturbancecausedbyclimatechange(source:Hoegh-Guldberget al., 2007)

Figure20:Componentsofeconomicvalueofcoralreefecosystems(source:Ahmedet al., 2005)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

Table 3 presents the outputs of a 2004 workshop in which Seychellois participants provided a simple ratingofthemajorareasofvaluegeneratedfrommarineandcoastalecosystemsinSeychelles.48 The tableindicatesimportantfisheries,tourism,coastalprotection,biodiversityandculturalvaluesderivedfrom the coral reefs.

Table 3: Thecomponentsofvalueofmarine/coastalecosystemsinSeychelles(source:Cesaret al., 2004)

ComponentEcosystem

Sea grass Coral reefs Mangroves Beach Shelf /plateauFisheries +++ +++ ++ + +++International tourism 0 +++ ++ +++ +

Local recreation 0 + 0 +++ +

Coastal protection + +++ + +++ 0

Waste treatment + 0 + 0 0

Sediment retention ++ 0 ++ ? 0

Carbon fixation ++ ? ++ 0 +

Biodiversity ++ +++ ++ + +Culture 0 ++ 0 +++ 0

3.2.2. The coral reef fisheryThe largely coral reef-based coastal and bank fisheries are small-scale fisheries that contributebetween1and2percenttonationalGDP.Nationalpercapitafishconsumptionisestimatedat55to75kg per annum49andmuchofthisisderivedfromthecoralreef-basedfisheries,whichthereforemakeanimportantcontributiontofoodsecurity.TheSeychelleseconomyalsobenefitsfromthegenerationofforeigncurrencythroughtheexportof(onaveragefortheyears2000to2009)7.5percentofthesmall-scalefisherycatch.50

TheSFAreportof2011statedthatanestimated5000peoplewereemployed,eitherdirectlyorindirectlyinthefisheriessectorin2011;thisrepresentsabout11percentofregisteredemploymentinSeychelles.However, employment in the Indian Ocean Tuna canning factory accounted for approximately 50percentoftotalfisheriesrelatedemployment.TheASCLMEProjectcoastallivelihoodsanalysisfortheSeychelles(2010)estimatedthetotalemploymentfiguretobecloserto6000,or17percentofallformalemployment,quotingSFAreportsfrom2006.TheASCLMEProject,quoting2002datafromMISD, stated that 10 percent of households in Seychelles are “to some extent dependent on small-scale fisheries,whichprovidelivelihoodsto11percentofthepopulation”.

Therearethreemainfisheriestypesthatconcentratetheireffortonthecoralreefsandtheinshorebanks.Themajorityoffishersareemployedinthedemersallinefishery,whichoperatesontheplateauofMahéandAmirantes.This fishery utilizes “whalers” and “schooner” vessels and so-called “outboards” andtargetsLutjanidae,Serranidae/Epinephelidae,LethrinidaeandCarangidae.Catches,excludingCarangidae,exceeded 1 300 tonnes in 2003, representing about 34 percent of the total catch, with a value of approximately USD2.7million.51Oneofthemajortargetspeciesofthedemersallinefisheryistheemperorredsnapper

48. Cesar et al., 2004.49. ASCLMEProject,2010a;GovernmentofSeychelles,2011.50. SFA,2012b.51. Robinson, et al., 2005.

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(Lutjanus sebae)andthereareconcernsaboutpotentialrecruitmentoverfishingowingtoitsslowgrowthand low rate of recruitment. Catches more than doubled between 2003 and 2005 from about 350 tonnes to about825tonnes.Morerecentdatasuggestthatthetotalcatchhasdeclined(toanestimated500tonnesin2011)butthismayjustreflecttheoveralldeclineincatchandeffortthatisthoughttobeasaresultofthe risk posed by Somali pirates. The percentage contribution of red snappers to the catch has, however, alsodeclinedfromapeakof29.5percentin2007to17.6percentin2011.52Thedemersallinefisherywasreportedtoemployabout1000fishersorapproximately60percentofthetotal,53althoughdatafromSFA(2012)indicatesthatin2011therewereatotalof1039registeredfishers,with716boat-owners.Ofthetotalof1039fishers,120werereportedtohavenewlyregisteredwiththeSFAin2011.

Thetrapfisher,ontheotherhand,generallytargetsSiganidae,LethrinidaeandEpinephelidaeinhabitingshallower,nearshorereefsusingtheso-called“mini-Mahé”typevesselaswellascanoes(pirogues).54 Thereisalegallimitmeshsizeof4cm.55Thenetfisherytargetsmackerelandsardines(e.g.Scombridaeand Clupeidae).

Smallfisheriesalsoexistforoctopus(about50tonnesperannum/approximately60fishers),forlobster(Panulirus penicillatus and Panulirus longipes)withlandingsof2.4tonnes(20licencesin2011)andgiraffe-crab(Ranina ranina)(10to30tonnes/approximately10fishers).

The proportion of the total catch by each vessel type is presented in Figure 21. Importantly, the most recent reporting from theSFAstatesthat the outboard category includes part-time fishers;this may explain the increase in historical vessel numbers reported by SFA in 2012,compared to the previous reports. The trap fishery isestimated to employ about 350fishers.56

The capital island of Mahé dominates the distribution of the landings (Figure 22).Thecomposition of the small-scale fishery catch is presented inFigure 23. Note the dominance of two families, Carangidae and Lutjanidae. These twofamilies constituted an average of 61 percent of the landings over the period 2000 to 2011.57 However, there has been a shift in the relative contribution by these two families from

52. GovernmentofSeychelles,2011;SFA,2012a.53. UNDP,2006.54. Robinson et al., op cit.55. Grahamet al., 2007.56. UNDP,2006.57. SFA,2012a.

Figure21:Estimateofcatchbyvesseltype(2006to2011)(source:SFA,2012a)

Figure22:CatchdataforSeychelles(1998to2011)(source:SFA,2012a)

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Chapter 3: The coral reef fisheries of Seychelles

Carangidaedominanceintheearly2000s,toadominanceofLutjanidaeinthemid-2000s,tosomethingapproaching parity in 2010/2011.

A sea cucumber fishery hasgrown rapidly since 2006, with the number of animals harvested increasing from 338 792 to642 404 in 2011. Exports of sea cucumber increased by 57 percent between 2010 and 2011, which yielded a 76 percent increase in value.58Asmall recreational/gamefisheryalso operates on the Mahé plateau, but data are scarce.

Coral reef fishery resource statusHistorical data from Seychelles suggests a long-term decline in some coral reef-based fisheries inSeychelles.In2003,GrandcourtandCesar(2003)observedthatyieldsfromthemainfisheriestargetingSerranidae, Lethrinidae, Siganidae and Octopodidae in Seychelles had been in decline for some years. Serranidae,Lethrinidae andSiganidae fisheries alone contribute an average of 15.5 percent to totalcatch(1998to2011)withamaximumof19.8percentin2007.59 They reported that yields of demersal resourceshadbeenindeclineforatleastthefivepreviousyearsandthatfishersweremovingawayfromthefisheryorparticipatingonapart-timebasis.UNDP(2006)reportedthat“demersalandreefresourcestargetedbylineandtrapfisheriesarelocallyover-exploited,especiallyaroundthemaingraniticislands”.Thesefisherieswouldincludetheemperorredsnapper,whichalonecontributed16.7percentofthetotalcatch(1998to2011),withapeakyieldofmorethan1200tonnes(29.5percentoftotalcatch)in2007.Althoughmore recent research60 indicated that yields from Siganidae at least may be sustainable, a retrospective stock assessment of L. sebae(1977to2006)waslessoptimistic.61 The assessment found thatforthemajorityoftheyearsinquestion“fishingmortalityratesandspawner-biomass-per-recruitapproximatedtothelimitreferencepointofF30%”.Italsofoundthatin2004,forexample,67.5percentofthecatchcomprisedfishsmallerthanthemeansizeatfirstsexualmaturity.

Octopusandlobsterpopulationsarealsothreatenedbyoverfishing.62TheseacucumberfisherywasthefirstinSeychellestohaveaparticipatorymanagementplandeveloped.Licencesarelimitedto25vesselsandaTACisinplace.63

GrandcourtandCesar(2003)undertooktodeterminethebio-economicimpactofthe1998bleachingeventinSeychelles.Basedonlargesamplesizesoffishingtrips,withcatchperuniteffort(CPUE)asthe indicator of abundance, the results are complex, and even contradictory for some families within the sameprimaryfunctionalgroup;complexitysubsequentlyobservedbyPratchettet al. in 2011.

Figure24presentstheCPUEdata(inkg/man/hrunlessotherwisestated).PerhapsthetwomostnotablefindingsweretheapparentsignificantdeclineintheabundanceoftheSiganidaefamily(herbivore)andSerranidae(carnivore),whichbothfeatureinthefishery,althoughthemoreimportantfamilies(intermsofthefishery)ofLutjanidae,LethrinidaeandCarangidaeshowedeitherlittlechangeoranincreaseinabundance(Carangidae).ThedeclineinCPUEforSiganidaewasnotbelievedtobeasaresultofthebleaching event, but was characteristic of a longer-term decline, although subsequent analysis, including datafrom1991to2006,indicatedthatthefisherywasbeingexploitedwithinsustainablelimits.64

58. SFA,opcit.59. SFA,2012a.60. e.g. Robinson et al., 2011.61. Grandcourtet al., 2008.62. UNDP,2006.63. GovernmentofSeychelles,2011.64. Robinson et al., 2011.

Figure23:Small-scalefisherycatchcomposition(2000to2011)bySFAcategory(source:SFA,2012a)

84

Figure25presentsdata fromGrandcourtandCesar (2003)on thenet income(±SE)ofSeychelles’principalreeffisheriesgearsbeforeandafterthe1988bleachingevent.Theremarkablefeatureofthesedataisthedramaticdeclineinthenetincomeperuniteffortforthedemersalhandlinefishery.Again,however, analyses revealed that the decreaseinnetincomeperfisher,pertripwasnotasaresultofthe1998bleachingevent.Nomorerecentdatawereidentifiedthat could determine the trajectoryof fishers’ income since the work ofGrandcourtandCesar.Notealsothattheother main gears did not show changes on thescaleofthedemersalhandlinefisheryand even increased marginally.

GrandcourtandCesarwentontoobservethat in fact some components of the inner island fishery of Seychelleswere facingsevere constraints, not only because of a reduced resource base, but also because of increasing costs associated with inflation. They argued that “participantswill be running at an overall loss in the immediate future. These results corroborate predictions that if fishingcontinues at the current level around the central granitic islands it will not be cost effective or sustainable”.65

However, the work of Graham et al. (2007),whichalsospecificallyexaminedtargetspeciesoftheSeychellesfisheries,suggested that thereare time lags in the responseoffishpopulations to theeffectsofamajorcoralbleachingevent,suchasthatwhichafflictedtheSeychellesin1998.Althoughthebiomassof70percentofthetargetfishspeciesdidnotchangesignificantlyovertheperiod1994to2005,thedecreasingsizespectra slope was the result of a relative decline in smaller fish (<30 cms) and anincreaseinthelargerindividuals(>45cms).They judged, therefore, that there wouldbearecruitmentfailureinthefishery.Themechanism for this recruitment failure was proposed as being high mortality of small andjuvenilefishowingtolossofstructuralcomplexity in the reef.

3.3. Adaptive capacityTheIPCC(2001)definedadaptivecapacityas “Theabilityofasystemtoadjusttoclimatechange (including climate variability andextremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences”. With a focus on social adaptive capacity,

65. Grandcout&Cesar,2003,p.548.

Figure24:Abundanceindices(±SE)forSeychelles’principalreeffisheriesbeforeandafterthe1998bleachingevent(source:redrawnfromGrandcourtandCesar,2003)

Figure25:Netincome(±SE)ofSeychelles’principalreeffisheriesgearsbeforeandafter1988bleachingevent(source:GrandcourtandCesar,2003)

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McClanahan et al. (2009)definedadaptivecapacityas“a latentcharacteristicofpeople that reflectstheirabilitytoanticipateandrespondtochangesincoralreefecosystemsandminimize,copewith,andrecoverfromtheconsequencesofalossinfisheriesproduction.”(p.663).

Inthissection,adaptivecapacityintheSeychellescoralreeffisherieswilldrawonresearchoutputsthatassessed adaptive capacity at the community level. It will also discuss aspects of national governance and economics in Seychelles that may confer additional adaptive capacity.

McClanahan et al.’s 2008 analysis of adaptive capacity considered 24 coastal communities in fivecountries in theWIO: Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Tanzania and Seychelles (four communitiesin Seychelles). These communities were selected using a systematic random sampling and were not necessarilyfisherhouseholds.Adaptivecapacitywasassessedaccordingtoeightindicators,asfollows:

• recognitionofcausalagentsandhumanagencyinfluencingmarineresources;

• capacity to anticipate change and develop strategies to respond (measured by organizingresponsestoopen-endedquestionsrelatingtoahypothetical50percentdeclineinfishcatch);

• occupationalmobility;

• occupationalmultiplicity;

• socialcapital(e.g.totalnumberofcommunitygroupstherespondentbelongedto);

• wealth(acrossasuiteof15materialassets);

• technology(measuredasthediversityoffishinggearsused);and,

• infrastructure(20factors,suchaswhetherthecommunityhadahard-toproadandmedicalclinic,etc.).

The eight indicators were weighted by social scientists, with the highest mean weighting allocated to occupationalmultiplicity(0.19)comparedtomaterialassets(0.15).Recognitionofcausality,changeanticipationandoccupationalmobilityreceivedthelowestratings(0.10,.011and0.11respectively).

The lowest overall adaptive capacity score across the WIO region was 0.28 for a site in Madagascar, and theoverallmeanforallcountrieswas0.41(SD=0.07).ThemeanadaptivecapacityscoreforSeychelleswas0.50(SD=0.03),asimilarscoretothatreportedforMauritius(0.45).66

The details of the adaptive capacity index for the four Seychelles sites are presented in Figure 26.

The dominant components of adaptive capacity among the sampled Seychellois coastal households were materialassetsandinfrastructure.Ofthe243coastalhouseholdssampled,only30fisherswereinterviewed,so it is important to bear in mind that this is a relatively modest sample from which to draw conclusions on theadaptivecapacityofSeychelles’fisherhouseholds,ratherthancoastalhouseholdsingeneral.

Section 3.2.2 noted that some of the most important small-scale fisheries targeting reeffish species are either likely tobe overfished or at least at thelimit of sustainable exploitation and calls for reducing fishingmortality have been made. There is therefore already a need for the participants in this fishery to adapt, even ifmanagement initiatives for most of the important fisherieshave yet to be taken.67 In fact,

66. McClanahan et al.,2009;Cinneret al., 2011.67. SFA,2012a.

Figure 26: Weighted contribution of eight indicators of adaptive capacity (source:adaptedfromMcClanahanet al., 2008)

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GrandcourtandCesar(2003)suggestedthatfishersmayhavealreadybeguntoadapt,evenifthiswasnotlikelytobespecificallybecauseoftheimpactsofclimatechange.Theyobservedthattherehadbeen“afluxofeffortawayfromtripsthattargetdemersalspeciesandthelargereductioninincomescouldalsobeassociatedwithanincreaseintherelativeproportionoffishingunitsoperatingonapart-timebasis.The remaining units targeting demersal species are probably represented by those fishing forpersonal consumption rather than a primary source of income.”68

Nodatawereobtainedforthiscasestudythatcouldinformhowfishersmayhaveadaptedtheirlivelihoodportfolio as a result of apparent reduced participation in the fishery, orwhether this reported trendtowardspart-timefishinghaspersisted.The2011annualstatisticsreportfromSFAdoesreportfishingeffort but with the caveat that data for the pirogue and outboard vessel categories include part-time fishers.Nodefinitionordescriptionof“part-time”isprovided.

Thesamereportalsoincludesatimeseriesoffishingeffortdata(maximummeannumberofvesselsactiveonamonthlybasis)andthedataindicateanincreaseinthisparticularmetricoffishingeffortsince1998(Figure27).69

Ofcourse,“high”adaptivecapacitydoesnotimplythatitisnecessarilyhighenoughtoallowfisherstomoveawayfromthecommercialfishery.Infactthereareseveralissuestoconsider.ForexampleDawet al. (2012)foundadistinctunwillingnessamongasampleoffishersinSeychellestoleavethefishery,evenif relative catch declined by 50 percent (Figure 28). Theauthors proposed three possible explanations for the lack of willingness to exit the fishery,despite the proposed decline in catch. Among these are thefact that the relatively high level of economic development in Seychelles has allowed the development of specializedfishers and their respectivehouseholds have not had to develop multiple livelihoods to survive. However, the extent to which fishers are able toparticipate on a part-time basis, as proposed byGrandcourt andCesar(2003),maynothavebeencaptured by Daw et al.’s research.

Iffisherswere toexit thecoralreef fisheries, are there optionsto expand other fisheries thatmay be less exposed and/or sensitive to climate change effects?

While the demersal fisheryis not likely to be universally affected by bleaching impacts owing to the depth of fishing,concerns have been raised over

68. Grandcourt&Cesar,2003,p.548.69. SFA,opcit.

Figure27:Small-scalefishingeffortbymajorvesseltype(1998to2011)(source:SFA,2012a)

Figure28:Catchdeclinethresholdsforexitingthesmall-scalefisheryinSeychelles(source:Dawet al., 2012)

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its sustainability.70An alternativefisheryoptionmaybe the semi-pelagicfishery,which is currentlycontributing at least 40 percent of the total catch.

AnotheraspectofSeychelles’capacitytoadapttoclimatechangeimpactsonthecoralreefecosystemis at thenational institutional level; e.g. its ability tomonitor andmanagefisheries and to establishandmanageMPAs.TheSeychelleshas set aside,undervaryingdegreesofprotection, anestimated19percent(about255km2) of coastal coral reef habitat,71ofwhichsixareasareMPAsadministeredbytheNationalParksAuthority.ThelargestsingleMPAisAldabra(231km2), which is managed by theparastatalSeychellesIslandFoundation.Therearefourshellreserves,twospecialreserves(ArideIslandandCousinIsland)andthreefisheriesreserves.ThetotalcoverageofMPAsaroundthegraniticinner islands is about 62 km2.72ThegovernmentofSeychellesandNGOpartnersthatmanagesomeoftheseMPAs(e.g.ArideandCousin)areveryactiveinresearchactivitiesandencouragetheparticipationofinternationalorganizationsintheMPAs.AnimportantaspectoftheworkrelatingtotheMPAsismonitoring their status and there are a number of programmes that can provide baseline or current information that may be used for management improvements as the effects of climate change become apparent.(Table4)

Table 4: MonitoringofMPAsinSeychelles

Monitoring programmes area monitored AldabraMarineProgramme Aldabraatoll;Assumption;Astove;St.PierreGlobalVisionInternational(GVI) (e.g.800volunteersinsevenyears) NorthWestCoastofMahe;Praslin;Curieuse

Seychelles National Coral Reef Network MahéCORDIO CosmoledoAtoll(notregular)EarthWatch SilhouetteIsland;NorthIsland;DesrochesIslandCambridgeCoastalResearchUnit AlphonseIsland

FisheriesmanagementistheresponsibilityoftheSFA,andagainthisorganizationhasbeenveryactiveinundertakingresearchactivitiesandpartneringwithvarious internationalorganizations,NGOsandresearchinstitutions.TheresearchofMcClanahan,Graham,Robinsonandtheircolleaguespreviouslycited in this document are good examples of this, their work having been funded by various partners includingWIOMSA/SwedishInternationalDevelopmentCooperationAgency(SIDA),theWorldBankGroup,theEuropeanUnion(EU),andDFID.However,overthelastthreetofouryearsSFAhaslostanumberofkeystaffworkingoncoastalfisheriesmanagement,althoughinsomecasestheindividualsremainactiveinfisheriesandcoralreefecosystemresearchandmanagementwithSeychellesNGOs.While many of the research outputs on climate change in coral reef ecosystems in Seychelles is incorporatedintonationalpolicymaking,thereislittleinclusionasyetintofisherymanagementplans,which themselves are very limited in number.73

Theconceptof IntegratedCoastalZoneManagement (ICZM)hasbeenmuchpromoted in theWIOin recent years (e.g. through the IndianOceanCommission (IOC)/EUReCoMaPprogramme).Thiscollaborative approach to environmental governance can play an important role in reducing other, non-fisheries stressorsoncoral reef ecosystems, includingnutrient and sediment loading from terrestrialsources.Thesereducetheresilienceofcoralreefs;highnutrientlevelscantriggerbleachingandleadtothe proliferation of macro-algae, while sediment can smother corals. The Seychelles’ ICZM initiative is guided by the EMPS.

70. Grandcourtet al., 2008.71. McClanahan et al., 2008.72. UNDP,2006.73. SFA,opcit.

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TheSeychelleshasalsobeenanactiveparticipantinanumberofrecentregionalcoastalzoneprogrammes.Forexample,asamemberoftheIOC[e.g.theRegionalEnvironmentProgrammeofIOC;NetworkofMPAsofthecountriesoftheIndianOceanCommission,RAMP;Acclimate(withtheFrenchGlobalEnvironmentFund);AfricanMonitoringoftheEnvironmentforSustainableDevelopment(AMESD)];theEU-fundedACPFishIIprogramme"StrengtheningFisheriesManagementinAfrica,theCarribeanandPacificgroupofstates",etc.),andwithUNEP(e.g.WIOLaB)andGEF/UNDP(e.g.theASCLMEProject).Through thisparticipation, theSeychelleshasbenefited fromvarious formsof institutionalcapacitybuilding,technicalsupport,equipment,policydevelopment,MPAsupport,etc.

On a larger scale what are the macro-economic characteristics of the country that might confer additional adaptivecapacitythatcanbenefitfishers?TheSeychelleshasthesecondhighestpercapitaGDPintheAfricanregionandranked50thin2007ontheUNDPHumanDevelopmentIndex,withahighlevelofinvestment in education, health, housing and the environment.74 However, the Seychelles is not without problems, with a high external public debt and, owing to the high level of imports, a vulnerability to oil andfoodpriceshocks.Inflationreached63.6percent,fallingto37percentin2008,to−2.4percentin2010andwas7.1percentin2012.Fishpriceshavealsoexperiencedinflation,withtheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)forfishinflatingto219.6in2012,againstabaseline100in2007.Thebalanceoftradein2012wasadeficitof−7903millionRupees.75 On the positive side, the tourism sector, which contributed morethan25percentofGDPin2010,76hasenjoyedcontinuedrapidgrowthsinceatleast2008,withan 84 percent growth in hotel and restaurant sector employment, and a 50 percent growth in the private sector overall.77Prayag(2011)reportsthat“travelandtourism”actuallycontribute46.4percentofGDP.Theseareencouragingsignsforthepotentialadaptivecapacitywithinthefisheriessectorifappropriatetrainingandjob-switchingcanberealized.

4. Socio-ecological vulnerability

It was observed in Section 1.2 that there are effectively two assessments that need to takeplace−ecologicalandsocio-economic.The difficulty lies in usefully integratingthe results of the two. McClanahan and colleagues have attempted this and the outputsof thefirst step in theprocessarepresented in Figure 29. Note that openshapes(andxandshortdash(-)forTanzaniaand western Madagascar respectively) refer tounfishedclosedsites.Theclosedshapes(and star and long dash forTanzania andwestern Madagascar respectively) refer to fishedsites.Fromthisanalysis,Seychellesappears relatively low on the pristineness scale for both coral andfish (largely as aresultofthe1998andsubsequentbleachingevents) but high on the social adaptive capacity scale, scoring relatively well on

74. TheSeychellesNationalClimateChangeCommittee,2009.75. NBS, 2013.76. ASCLME,2010.77. NBS, op cit.

Figure29:Socialadaptivecapacityindexand ecological pristineness

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material assets and infrastructure, but not necessarily better on occupational multiplicity, occupational mobility, human agency or social capital than other sites in the countries that scored less well on overall adaptivecapacity.AsimilarfigureproducedbyMcClanahanet al.(2008)butwithpredictedbleachingsusceptibilityintheplaceofecologicalpristineness(basedontheresearchofMainaet al., 2008) also located Seychelles in the right hand quadrant but with high environmental susceptibility.

Putting the three axes of environmental susceptibility, pristineness and social adaptive capacity together, the recommendations of McClanahan et al. are therefore determined by where a site/country is located in the space of ecological pristineness, environmental susceptibility and social adaptive capacity. The space occupied by Seychelles is shaded in Figure 30.

The critical observations are that pristineness is low, environmental susceptibility is high but so is adaptive capacity. McClanahan et al. (2008) observed that climatechange impacts cannot be reduced per se, and therefore the conservation of coral reef ecosystems through, for example, the creation of more MPAs,reductioninfisherieseffort,etc. are “likely to be consistently undermined by the impacts of extreme climate events”.78 On the other hand, Graham et al. (2007) agreed that “althoughMPAs seem to offer no long-termresilience to the populations and assemblages”, they did recognizethat there are spatial variations in exposure and resilience and that MPAs should still be an option inthe overall management portfolio. They recommended MPAs in theSeychelles should be sited north of Praslin and south of Mahé, with granitic habitats offering the most hope for recovery.

5. Coralreeffisheriesmanagementimplications

McClanahan et al. (2008) argued that countries with high environmental susceptibility and higheradaptive capacity should devise “economic development strategies that lessen dependence on coral reef resources (to) reduce the vulnerability of their economies and livelihoods to climate change”.McClanahan et al.(2009),whileacknowledgingthatecosystemswouldcontinuetobetransformedbyenvironmental disturbances (e.g. bleaching and acidification, etc.) observed that enhancing adaptivecapacity may demand “allowing sustainable resource extraction of species that will not be adversely affected by climate change, re-evaluating the sustainability for those species most affected by climate change, and decoupling local economies from natural resources”. Some of these recommendations are moreeasilysaidthandone,butareworthreflectingoninthecontextoftheSeychelles.

78. McClanahan et al., 2008, p.54.

Figure 30: Model of conservation priorities and actions within the threeaxesofenvironment,ecologyandsociety(source:redrawnfrom McClanahan et al.,2009)

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Decoupling local economies from natural resourcesThe recommendation of McClanahan et al.(2009)wasthatincircumstancesofhighsusceptibilitybutalsorelativelyhighadaptivecapacity,participantsinthefisheryshouldmovetowardsothereconomicopportunities,suchastourism,offshorefisheriesandservicesbasedoninformationtechnology.Butthepreviously referenced observations of Daw et al.(2012),Cinneret al.(2009),andothers,indicatethattheavailabilityofalternativestofishingdoesnotguaranteesubsequentup-takebyfishers,atleastbythecurrent generation.

Describingthefullscopeofopportunitiesoutsidethesmall-scalefisherysectorisbeyondtheambitofthis case study, although tourism is certainly a growth industry with an increase in the number of visitors of about 30 percent since 2008.79 In fact, the government of Seychelles has been looking at the needs foradaptationtoclimatechangeimpactsonfisheriessinceatleast2001.Forexample,therewereplansdeveloped to diversify marine-based tourism opportunities that would require the sort of marine skill setthatfishersalreadyhave,totaketouristsonsnorkellingandSCUBAdivingtrips,etc.Theeffectofclimate change disturbance to coral reefs may of course directly affect the attractiveness of these reefs to tourists, potentially leading to a reduction in demand for dive tourism.80 Note also that the industry isverysensitivetoglobaleconomicperformance(Payet,2007)and(ironically)thecarbonfootprintoftourism to Seychelles is high because of its distance from the main European markets.81

In terms of decoupling local economies from natural resources, the development of mariculture may be an intermediate intervention but one that warrants a cautious approach. Historically, mariculture inSeychelleshasachieved limitedsuccess,with theonlymajordevelopment,CoetivyPrawnFarm,filingforbankruptcyin2007.82 In any case, of the approximately 300 employees at Coetivy, only about 20percentwereSeychellois(theremainderbeingofThaiandSriLankannationality).Currently,thereis only the Praslin Ocean Farm with three employees, and a small subsidiary giant clam facility. The opportunities for mariculture in Seychelles have been reviewed by various consultants in recent years, includingNageondeLestang(2005)andHecht(2009),whoproposedanumberofoptions,andEeckhautandMéraud(2011).EeckhautandMéraud’sreportproposedthepilotingofseacucumberranchingonCoetivy and Poivre Islands, although this would likely employ as few as six individuals in what is seen as a hardship posting for Seychellois owing to its isolation from Mahé. Potential gross revenues were estimatedatUSD1.6million,soitwouldbearelativelymodestventure.Hecht’sreport,ontheotherhand,estimatedpotentialrevenuesofupto11to13percentofGDP.HechtincludedaSWOTanalysisofmaricultureandtheimportant“weaknesses”wereidentifiedasfollows:

• lowlevelbio-technicalaquaculturecapacity;

• absenceofacomprehensiveassessmentofopportunities;

• lowlevelappreciationandunderstandingoffuturefisheriesscenariosbysomestatutorybodies;and

• absenceoffuturefishdemandanalyses(particularlyinviewofincreasingtouristnumbers).

The “threats” included the dominance of the public sector in business activities and a certain lack of visionwithintheGovernmentofSeychellesregardingfuturedemandforfish.Hecht’smainproposalwasthedevelopmentofsmalltomedium-sizedfinfishcagefarmingventuresof50to200tonnesperannum to supply the Seychelles tourism markets.

Following Hecht’s report, various donors have supported the ongoing development of a Mariculture Masterplan for Seychelles, in partnership with the SFA. The objective of developing maricultureis to enhance “food security and boost the contribution of fisheries to economic growth” and to“enableSeychelles todiversify theeconomiesoffishingcommunitiesand improve the resilienceoftheir livelihoods in the face of climate change”. One aspect of the Masterplan is the inclusion of a

79. NBS, op cit.80. Chong-Seng et al., 2012.81. NBS, op cit.82. Eeckhaut & Méraud, 2011.

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private-sectorinitiative.ThemostrecentdonorpartnerisNEPADaspartofitswidersupportfortheSeychellesNationalFoodSecurityPolicy.TheMasterplanmakesprovisionforfishcagefarmingofyellowtail(Carangidae),groupers(Serranidae)andbourgeois(Lutjanidae),withanexpectedproductionvalueofUSD100million,whichwould equate to about 7.7percent ofGDP (2012figures).This issomewhat in line with Hecht’s estimate of mariculture’s potential contribution of 11 to 13 pecent of GDP.Nodataorinformationwereavailabletoevaluatetheemploymentopportunitiesthatmayarisefrom these cage farming systems, although they tend to be relatively intensive in terms of employment.

Allowing sustainable resource extraction of species that will not be adversely affected by climate change In terms of sustainable use of species not adversely affected by climate change, the pelagic and small pelagicfisheriesareresourcesthatmightbetargeted,althoughtheacidificationoftheoceanmayalsonegatively impact the larval stages of these species and their planktonic prey in the longer-term. In fact, Carangidae were already the dominant family in the early 2000s, although they were superseded byLutjanidae from2005.Overall, therehasbeenadeclining trend in the total catchofCarangidaesince 2000. The reasons for this decline are probably numerous and may include an increased demand forLutjanidae(andotherdemersalspecies)inthetouristhotelsandrestaurants,aswellasthethreatofpiracy.Pricesare reported tobehighlyvariableowing toseasonalpeaks inabundance.Asfarastargeting tunas and billfish, this strategywas already applied to reduce inshorefishing effort in the1990s;in2005thefisheryemployedabout50fishers.83

Re-evaluating the sustainability for those species most affected by climate changeGrahamet al.(2007)predictedrecruitmentfailureforarangeoftargetspeciesinSeychellesfisheries,particularlythosecaughtbythetrapfishery.ThisimportantobservationwaslinkedtothedeclineofcoralreefdominatedecosystemsintheSeychelles,largelyasaresultofmajorbleachingevents.Theauthorsestimatedthatgiventhephysicaldistributionofthefishery,with50to60percentofthefishingefforttakingplacewithinthedepthrangerelevanttothedataonwhichthefindingswerebased,therearelikelytobeimportanteffectsonthetrapfishery.Thisimpliesthatfisheriesmanagersshouldapplyrestrictionsofefforttoatleasttheseparticularnearshoreandshallowgrounds.Althoughthereislikelytobesignificantconnectivitybetweenshallowanddeeperwaterpopulationsofthesamespecies,Grahamet al.(2007)didpropose,however,thatmanagerscouldsupporttherelocationoftrapfishingeffort.

Anumberofotheraspectsofcoralreeffisheriesmanagementareworthincluding.Hoegh-Guldberget al.(2007)observedthat,giventhecontinuedincreaseintherateofCO2 emissions, it was important for decision-makerstoreducetheimpactofpre-existingstressors,includingfishingeffortonkeyfunctionalgroups such as herbivores.

Grahamet al.(2013),alsolookedindetailattargetedfisheriesmanagementregulationsforparticularfunctional groups, particularly various herbivores, which might help to maintain or facilitate the recoveryofcoral reefecosystems.Forexample, theyconsidered thefishingmortalityonherbivoressuchas speciesofScaridaeandAcanthuridae (of thegeneraAcanthurus and Ctenochaetus) that are importantforthecontrolofthedevelopmentofturfalgae(andthereforepromotecoralrecruitment)andonSiganidae,ofwhichabout250tonneswerelandedin2011(8.6percentofthetotalcatch)aswellasKyphosidaeandAcanthuridae(genusNaso), which are important consumers of mature macroalgae.84 In a situation where a phase shift to macro algal domination has already occurred, they proposed that stocks ofbothfunctional“subgroups”neededtobesufficientlyhealthy.Ifthephaseshiftwassubsequentlyreversed(bythepresenceofSiganidae,Khyphosidae,etc.)backtoacoraldominatedsystem,asufficientabundanceofspeciesthatcanpromotethepersistenceofthisstate(i.e.theturfalgaegrazers)mustbealready established. They proposed gear-based management as an approach that could help to achieve thissortoffishspecies/genusassemblage.InformationonthedetailedcompositionoftheharpoonandtrapfisheryintheSeychelleswerenotaccessibleforthepreparationofthisreport.

83. Nageon de Lestang, 2005.84. Citing observations by Bellwood et al.2006;Ledlieet al., 2007 and by Hoey & Bellwood, 2011.

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Sustaining coral reefs with MPAsTheroleofMPAsinsustainingcoralreefsunderthreatfromcoralbleachinghasbeenwidelydiscussedintheliterature.TheevidencefromSeychelles(aselsewhere)isthatthecreationofMPAsper se(andanyassociatedreductioninfishingeffort,etc.)doesnotconferanysignificantresilienceagainstcoralbleaching.Infact,Grahamet al.(2007)suggestedthattheeffectsofreducedrecruitmentofsomefishspecieswillpersistlonger(andmaybemoresevere)inMPAsbecauseoftheloweroverallmortalityratesand subsequent extended age structures. Presumably the extent of this would depend on the particular characteristicsoftheMPAs,includingthehistoryoffishingeffortpriorto,andthetimelapsedsince;itsgazettingandthenatureofrestrictionsonfishing;andthecharacteristicsoffishingpressureoutsidetheMPAitself.

However, the recommendations fromrecent researchsuggest thatMPAsshouldcontinue tocontributetothesuiteoffisheriesmanagementactivities,but that their locationshouldbe“strategicallyallocatedto areas where they can have the greatest impact”.85 Baker et al. (2008) proposed two approaches toidentify appropriate sites, based on 1) known environmental or physical characteristics are likely to confer protectionfrombleaching;and2)usingclimatemodelstoidentifysuitableareasthatwouldmostlikelynotbesubjecttosignificantbleachingrisk.Grahamet al.(2007)proposethatthereefsnorthofPraslinandsouthofMahé,andgranitichabitatswouldbesuitablelocationsforfutureMPAs,buttheygoontoarguethatareasofcoralreefecosystemsoutsideofMPAsshouldbemanagedtominimizeotherstressors,notablyoverfishingandnutrientenrichment,sothatsufficientstocksareavailableforreplenishment.

Anothertypeofmanagementinitiativeareso-calleddirectinterventions,86 such as reef shading, polyp feeding,etc.Anexampleofsuchadirectinterventionisthecultivationofcoralsfortransplanttoaffectedsites.ThishasbeeninprogressinSeychellessince2010,managedbyNatureSeychelles,withUSAIDandUNDPfunding.Todate,4800m2 of corals have been planted around Cousin Island.

Fisheries co-managementAkey factor in thepotential efficacyof anyof thevariousapproaches to coral reefmanagement istheinformedparticipationoftheprimarystakeholders,especiallythefishersthemselves,throughtheapplication of co-management. This approach has been introduced at various sites in the WIO, including theSeychelles,wherethefocusisinitiallyontheco-managementofthetrapandlinefisheriesaroundtheinnerislandsofPraslinandLaDigue.Theprogramme,withUNDP-GEFfundingsupportandtheparticipationofSFAandthePraslinFishingAssociation,hasenjoyedthefullsupportoftheMinisterforNaturalResources.ThefirstmanagementplanwassignedinNovember2013andisanencouragingstepforwardforcoralreefmanagementinSeychelles,andonethatshouldformthebasisoffutureMPAdesignandfisheriesregulationsdevelopment.

85. Baker et al., 2008.86. Baker et al., 2008.

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appendix

Appendix 1: Marine protected areas of Seychelles

national designation Site name ownership Mgt

authorityTotal

marine area (km2)

Total area (km2)

Special reserve

Aldabra GoS SIF 231 439

ArideIsland NGO ICS 1.1 0.70

Cousin Island NGO NS 1.2 ?

Marine national park

Baie Ternaie GoS SNPA 0.80 0.80

Curieuse GoS SNPA 11.76 14.70

Ile Cocos GoS SNPA 0.01 0.01

Port Launay GoS SNPA 1.58 1.58

Silhouette GoS(IDC) SNPA n/a 30.45

St.Anne GoS SNPA 10.73 14.53

Shell reserve

AnseFaureShellReserve GoS SFA 0.011 0.011

North East Point Shell Reserve GoS SFA 0.03 0.03

La Digue Shell Reserve GoS SFA 0.016 0.16

Praslin Shell Reserve GoS SFA 0.017 0.017

Protected area AfricanBanks (andsurroundingreefs) GoS MND

(MLUH) 0.03 0.03

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Chapter 4

THE SMaLL PELagIC FISHErIES oF gHana

By

Nana Ama Browne Klutse Ghana Space Science and Technology Institute, Ghana Atomic Energy Commission

Francis K.E. Nunoo Department of Marine and Fisheries Sciences, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana

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Chapter4:ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofGhana

Contents ...............................................................................................................................................Page

1. ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofGhana ............................................................................................. 104

1.1. The marine environment ........................................................................................................ 104

1.2. Thefishery .............................................................................................................................. 104

1.3. Species diversity ..................................................................................................................... 106

2. Ghana’smarineenvironmentanditsexposuretoclimatechangeandvariability .......................... 108

2.1. Atmosphereandclimate ......................................................................................................... 108

2.2. Ocean circulation and thermal dynamics ................................................................................ 109

2.3. Primary productivity .............................................................................................................. 111

3. ThesensitivityofsmallpelagicecosystemsoffGhana .................................................................. 112

3.1. Atmosphereandclimate ......................................................................................................... 113

3.2. Ocean circulation and thermal dynamics ................................................................................ 113

3.3. Population recovery/adaptive potential .................................................................................. 114

4. Social component ........................................................................................................................... 115

4.1. Ecological vulnerability ......................................................................................................... 115

4.2. Social sensitivity .................................................................................................................... 115

4.3. Social impact potential ........................................................................................................... 117

4.4. Adaptivecapacity ................................................................................................................... 117

5. Social-ecological vulnerability ...................................................................................................... 119

6. ThemanagementimplicationsofclimatechangetothebeachseinefisheryofGhana .................. 120

7. Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 121

8. References ...................................................................................................................................... 122

ListoffiguresFigure1: CoastalGhana ................................................................................................................ 104

Figure2: DistributionofthefishingfleetinthecoastalregionsofGhana ..................................... 105

Figure3: Contributionofartisanalfishinggearstototallandingsofsmallpelagicfish ................ 106

Figure4: Approximatedistributionoffishinggroundsbygeartype ............................................. 106

Figure5: Growthinno.offishingcanoes(1980to2014) ............................................................. 106

Figure6: Relativeabundanceofthemajorspeciessampledfromthebeachseinefishery ............ 107

102

Figure7: Speciescomposition(byweight)fortwositesinGhana ................................................ 107

Figure8: Meanscalarwindspeed−coastalGulfofGuinea ......................................................... 108

Figure9: Observeddeclineinprecipitation(inmm/yr-1/decade)forcoastalGhana(1951to2010) ...108

Figure10: ModelledchangesinprecipitationforWestAfrica,OctobertoMarch .......................... 109

Figure11: ModelledtemperaturechangeinWestAfrica,JunetoAugust ....................................... 109

Figure12: ThemajorcurrentsoftheGulfofGuinea ....................................................................... 110

Figure 13: Monthly evolution of SSTs from MODIS observations ................................................. 110

Figure14: MeanmonthlySST1995to2006 ................................................................................... 110

Figure15: SSTanomalies(°C)fortheperiod1984to2008 ............................................................ 111

Figure 16: Seasonal chlorophyll-aconcentrationsintheGulfofGuinea ........................................ 112

Figure17: DisplacementvolumesofzooplanktonoffGhana1969to1992 .................................... 113

Figure18: Projectedcatchestimatesforthreespeciesofsmallpelagicfish .................................... 114

Figure19: BiomassestimatesforSardinellaspp.(westernstock) ................................................... 114

Figure 20: Catch of S. auritaoffGhana1990to2008 ..................................................................... 115

Figure 21: Biomass estimates for E. encrasicolus(westernstock) .................................................. 115

Figure22: PlotofannualrainfallandbeachseinecatchinGhana .................................................. 116

Figure 23: Total landings for E. encrasicolus .................................................................................. 116

Figure24: SeasonalityofsmallpelagiccatchlandedbyAPWandbeachseine .............................. 116

Figure25: SourcesofincomeforfishersattwolandingsitesinGhana .......................................... 117

Figure26: MigrationdestinationsofGhanaianfishers .................................................................... 118

Figure27: Comparativeanalysisofvulnerabilitybetweenfishers attwocoastalfishingvillagesinGhana.......................................................................... 119

List of tablesTable1: SomeparametersofAfricanupwellings ........................................................................ 110

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Chapter 4: The small pelagic fisheries of Ghana

1. ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofGhana

1.1. The marine environmentThecoastlineofGhanaisapproximately540kmlong(Figure1).Thecoastalzoneischaracterizedbyrivers, creeks, lagoons and marshes which are separated from the sea by sand bars. The characteristics ofthemarineenvironmentoffthecoastofGhanaarestronglydeterminedbytheGuineaCurrent.GhanaispartoftheGuineaCurrentLargeMarineEcosystem(GCLME)zoneofoceanographicconnectivity.

TheGCLMEishighlyproductive1 and the primary factor that determines this productivity is the strength of the associated upwelling.2 Four distinct hydrographic seasons have been described: a minor upwelling takesplaceduringtheborealwinterfromDecembertoMarch,whileamoresignificantperiodofupwellingis observed in summer, between July and September. The upwelling periods are interspersed by periods ofwatercolumnstratification,withathermoclineestablishedatadepthof30to40m.3

1.2. The fisheryInGhanathemanagementoffisheriesistheresponsibilityoftheMinistryofFisheriesandAquacultureDevelopment(MOFAD).WithinMOFADthereisaFisheriesCommissionthatoverseespolicyformulationandthemanagementoffisheriesresources,withtechnicalRegionalFisheriesDirectorates.GhanaisamemberofCECAF.

Fisheriescontribute60percentoftotalannualpercapitaanimalproteinintakeinGhana,withanestimated85percentofthecountry’stotalfishproductionharvestedbymarinefisheries.4Marinefisheriesprovide

1. Ukweet al., 2006a.2. Bakun,1993.3. Wiafe et al., 2008.4. MOFA,2010;Nunoo&Asiedu,2013.

Figure1:CoastalGhana(source:GoogleEarth)

104

employment for approximately 210 000 people directly, and ten times that number through associated economic activities,includingboatbuilding,tradeinfuelandfishinggears,post-harvestprocessingandtradeinfish.

TotalannualdomesticfishproductioninGhanafor2012wasestimatedtobe456148tonnes,withexportsof62984tonnesvaluedatUSD209million.5 Despite this substantial production volume, there is an annual deficitoffishsupplyofapproximately450000tonnes,onlyabouthalfofwhichismetthroughimports.6

Thesmallpelagicfisheriestargetimportantspeciessuchasroundsardinella(Sardinella aurita),flatsardinella(Sardinella maderensis),Europeananchovy(Engraulis encrasicolus),Atlantichorsemackerel(Trachurus trachurus),roundscad(Decapterus punctatus)andchubmackerel(Scomber japonicus). Importantsmallpelagicfishlandingcentresinthecountryinclude;Keta,Ahwiam,Tema,Chorkor,Apam,Mumford,Elmina,ShamaandSekondi/Takoradi.ThesmallpelagicfisheryoperatesacrossallfourcoastaladministrativeregionsofGhana,butthemajorityoffishersandcanoesarelocatedintheCentralandGreaterAccraregions.Overall,therearesome334coastallandingsiteslocatedin195fishingvillages(Figure2).7

Althoughmostfishingforsmallpelagicspeciesisconductedbythebeachseinefisheryandamulti-gearartisanalcanoefishery,thereisalsoamulti-gearsemi-industrialfleet,whichin2008numberedsome339vessels,ranginginlengthfrom8to30m.Whilethelargercanoesusebothoutboardmotorandsailpower,withatleast50percentofvesselsbeingmotorized,thesemi-industrialvesselsareallmotorizedwithenginesof90to400hp.8

TheAPWisthemostimportant(57percent)fishinggearcombination,intermsofbothcatchweightand

5. MOFA,2012.6. MOFA,2010.7. Ayivi,2012citingAmadoret al., 2004.8. Finegold et al., 2010.

Figure2:DistributionofthefishingfleetinthecoastalregionsofGhana(source:Bannerman&Quartey,2004,citedinAyivi,2012)

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totalrevenues(Figure3).9 The Aligearisanencirclinggillnetthatwaspreviouslycharacterizedbytwodifferentformsdesignedtotargetdifferentsardinellas;currently,however,itisgenerallyusedasasinglegear.10 The Poli and Watsa are purse seine gears and, as with the original two Ali gears, Poli and Watsa werepreviouslyusedseparately,butthispracticehasnowceased.APWtargetingofsmallpelagicfishisseasonal and associated with upwelling.11

Kraan(2009)analysedcatchandvaluedatafromtheFisheriesCommissionofGhanatodetermine the importance of beach seining in Ghanaandshowedthatthebeachseineisthesecond most important gear in terms of the totalcatch(73848tonnes),afterthedifferentpurseseinegearsusedintheartisanalfisheries(APW)wereseparatedduringthe1989census.TheAPWcanoescaught154946tonnes.

Beach seines are the second most important gear and they capture a wide range of species, includingsmallpelagicfish.Beachseinesareinitially deployed close to shore from canoes and then hauled from the beach by teams of between ten and 60 individuals. The semi-industrial vessels deploy purse seines of 400 to 800 m in length and 40 to 70 m in hanging depth,with amesh sizeof 25 to40mm,although nets up to 2 km long are used by the larger vessels.

Theapproximatedistributionofthefishinggrounds preferred by each gear type was mappedbyOverå(1998)andreproducedbyKraan(2009),andisredrawninFigure4.Dataonthedistributionoffishinggroundsintheextreme west of the country appear to be sparse.

Thetrendinbasicfishingcapacity,inthiscaseinnumbersoffishingcanoes,ispresentedinFigure5(Notex-axisscalevariation).Thesedata indicate an increase in overall capacity since1980.Fortheperiod2000to2014therewas an increase of approximately 30 percent inthenumberoffishingcanoesrecorded.

1.3 Species diversityThebeachseinefisheryyieldsawidevarietyof families and species, with catch composition varying geographically, seasonally and annually.

9. “Ali”,“Poli”and“Watsa”arelocalnamesforagroupofpurseseinegears.Netdesignissimilarforeachtypeofgear,butmeshsizevaries.Poligearusesthesmallestmeshsize;Aligearusesamedium-sizedmesh;and Watsausesthelargestmeshsizeofthethreegears.10. Mensah et al., 2006.11. Kraan,2009.

Figure3:Contributionofartisanalfishinggearstototallandingsofsmallpelagicfish

Figure4:Approximatedistributionoffishinggroundsbygeartype(source:adaptedfromOverå,1998;Kraan,2009)

Figure5:Growthinnumberoffishingcanoes(1980to2014)

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Amajoreffortwasmadebetween2007and2009tosurveythecentralcoastofGhanaandthe results indicated a varying predominance of small pelagic species, including round sardinella (Sardinella aurita),flatsardinella(Sardinella maderensis)andEuropeananchovy(Engraulis encrasicolus),aswellasthecarangidAtlanticbumper(Chloroscombrus chrysurus),moonfish(Selene dorsalis),WestAfricanilisha(Ilisha africana), big-eye Grunt (Brachydeuterus auritas), boe drum (Pteroscion peli) and Europeanbarracuda(Sphyraena sphyraena). Althoughthe2007to2009surveyshowedthebeach seine catch composition to be typically dominated by just nine species,more than56 species, representing 30 families, were recorded overall.12 The relative abundance of the main species in the sampled catches is presented in Figure 6 for the three years of the survey period(thesmallpelagicspeciesareidentifiedbythe dotted boxes). The Shannon-Weaver diversity index was calculated at between 2.54 and 2.83, dependingonthesiteandyear.Animportantfeatureofthisfisheryisthatalargeproportion(upto90percent)ofthelandedcatchcomprisesjuvenilesofspeciesthatarealsoimportantinothercommercialfisheries.13 The proportion of juvenilescaughtalsohasaseasonalcomponent.Mensah et al.(2006)observedthatbothbeachseine and purse seine gear (Poli) capture largerproportionsofjuvenilesardinellas(andEngraulidae) during summer months, but the adult sardinellas contribute more to the catch during winter upwelling months when they are more accessible to both Poli and beach seine gears.

In addition to seasonal variations, there are also important oceanographic differences alongthecoastofGhanathatinfluencespeciescompositionintheadjacentmarineecosystem.NunooandAsiedu(2013)surveyedarangeofartisanalfishinggearsattwomarinelandingsites(AhwiamineasternGreaterAccraregionandElminainCentralRegion)foraperiodof22monthsbetweenJanuary2009andDecember2010.Upto64generawererecordedfromtheirsamples,butcomparisonbetweenthetwositesindicatedsignificantdifferencesinspeciescomposition.AttheeasternsiteofAhwiamcatchesweregenerallymorediverse,withfivespeciessharingapproximatedominanceandsmallpelagicspeciesbeingrelativelyscarce;atthewesternsiteofElmina,totalcatchesovertheperiodweredominatedbyS. aurita(54percent)(Figure7).

12. Aggrey-Fynn&Mensah,2012.13. Nunoo et al.,2006citedbyKraan,2009.

Figure6:Relativeabundanceof themajor speciessampledfromthebeachseinefishery(source:Aggrey-Finn & Mensah, 2012)

Figure7:speciescomposition(byweight)fortwositesinGhana(source:Nunoo&Asiedu,2013)

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2. ghana’s marine environment and its exposure to climate change and variability

2.1 Atmosphere and climateThereareanumberofatmosphericandclimateparametersthatinfluencesmallpelagicecosystemsandthesehavebeensummarizedinChapterone.Exactlyhowclimatechangemayaffecttheseparticularenvironmentalparametersisdifficulttodeterminewithanydegreeofprecision.

InGhana, the principal atmosphericfeatures that dominate climate outcomes are the ITCZ and the associated developmentoftheWAM.Thenortherlypassage of the ITCZ from about March to July delivers the main wet season, while the returning southerly passage from about September to November drives a shorter wet season.14 Local wind forcing, through Ekman transport, plays a role in driving an important seasonal upwelling in theGulfofGuineabut itdoesnotexplain the entirety of the phenomenon. The mean scalar wind speed for the coastalregionoftheGulfofGuineaispresentedinFigure8(lightshadingrepresentsdataforwesternGhana,darkershadingforeasternGhana).

Rainfall Mensah(1991)identifiedtwopatternsofrainfallinGhana:thedominantpattern(atleastatthetimeoftheresearch)deliveredmajorrainsprimarilybetweenMayandJune(i.e.justbeforethemajorupwelling),whilethesecondpatterndeliveredmajorrainsinSeptember.

AnIPCC15 analysis suggests a mean decline in rainfall overGhanafortheperiod1951to2010(Figure9),while Mcsweeney et al.(2010)reportedadecreaseintheperiod1960to2006atanaverageof2.3mmpermonth(2.4percent)perdecade.

There are complex interactions with the global atmospheric system, with storm systems propagating eastwardsasaresultoftheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO)andcoldfrontsthatdevelopoverCentralAmerica.TheclimateofGhanaisalsoinfluencedbyAEWs,whichcantriggerthedevelopmentoftropicalcyclonesintheAtlantic,16andthereareatmosphericteleconnectionsbetweenNorthAfricaandtheIndianmonsoon.17Similarly,theevenmoredistantENSOeventsinthePacificOceancanleadtoreducedrainfallacrossWestAfrica.18AfurthercomplicationistheroleoftheAMO−aphenomenonofchangesinSSTintheNorthAtlantic,whichisitselflinkedtoatmospherictemperatureandfreshwaterinflux−thatcanincreaserainfalloverWestAfrica.

14. McSweeney et al., 2010.15. Niang et al., 2014.16. Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001.17. Janicot et al.,2009.18. Perry&Sumaila,2006;McSweeneyet al., 2010.

Figure8:Meanscalarwindspeed−coastalGulfofGuinea(source:Roy,1995)

Figure9:Observeddeclineinprecipitation(inmm/yr-1/decade)forcoastalGhana(1951to2010)(source:redrawnfromNianget al., 2014)

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Potential effects of climate changeGiventhesecomplexandextensiveconnectionswithatmosphericprocessestakingplaceinotherregionsoftheglobe,itisplausiblethatglobalclimatechangeimpactswillresonatethroughoutWestAfrica.Unfortunately,thecurrentunderstandingdoesnotprovideanysortofdefinitiveanswers.

ThefuturebehaviourofENSOisofparticularimportance,buttheIPCCreportedonly“lowconfidenceinthecurrentunderstandingofhow(orif)climatechangewillinfluencethebehaviourofENSOandotherlong-term climate patterns”,19 while Collins et al.(2010)statedthat“Asfarasweknow,(ENSO)couldintensify, weaken, or even undergo little change depending on the balance of changes in the underlying processes”. However, the IPCC observes that “the ENSO-related precipitation variability on regional scales will likely intensify”. The characteristics of the Indian monsoon are also expected to alter, with the IPCC reporting that its extent and duration are likelytoincrease,andtheremaybeimpactsonWestAfricathrough teleconnections. But the characteristics of those future impacts, and the nature of changes in regional-scale atmospheric characteristics, remain unclear.

FortheWAMitself,theIPCCWGIAR5(2013)stated“ThereislowconfidenceinprojectionsofasmalldelayintheWestAfricanrainyseason,withanintensificationoflate-seasonrains.The limited skills of model simulations for the region suggest lowconfidenceintheprojections”.DownscaledforecastsforvariousclimaticzonesinGhanainevitablymirrortheIPCC’slowconfidenceinpredictingoutcomes.Forexample,thecoastalsavannahzonemayexperiencebetweena52percentreductionto a 44 percent increase in rainfall during the monsoon period by 2080, with an aggregate estimate of an increase of 3.88 percent (±13.96mm).20

The high degree of uncertainty about the mean predicted percentage change in precipitation for the region is apparent in Figure 10.

As far as atmospheric temperatures are concerned, theprojectionsareforanincreaseacrossWestAfrica.Theactualprojectedtemperatureincreasedependsontheclimatemodel,but a worst case scenario suggests a mean temperature increase ofcloseto5°Cduringthesummer(whichisalsotheperiodofthemajorupwelling)by2100(Figure11),withasimilarforecast for the winter period.

2.2 Ocean circulation and thermal dynamicsTheGuineaCurrentflowseastinabandatapproximately2°NalongthecoastoftheGulfofGuinea; it has a mean velocity of 0.5 ms-1 and a maximum velocity of 0.7 ms-1.21TheGuineaCurrentisprimarilyanextensionoftheNECCandtheproductivityofcoastalecosystemsintheGulfofGuineaislargelytheresultofthepresenceofseasonalupwellingrelatedtothiscurrent.Theapproximatelocation(basedonWorldOceanAtlas2009data)22oftheupwellingzoneisindicatedbytheshadedareainFigure12,andTable 1 presents data on upwelling parameters.

19. IPCC, 2014.20. USAID,2011.21. Djakouréet al., 2014.22. Toualy et al., 2012.

Figure 10: Modelled temperature change inWestAfricaJunetoAugust(source:IPCC, 2013)

Figure 11: Modelled changes in precipitationforWestAfrica,OctobertoMarch(source:IPCC,2013)

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Table 1: SomeparametersofAfricanupwellings(source:Roy,1995)

Location Period SST (median °C)

Wind speed (m/s-1)

upwelling index (m3/s-1/m)

Wind mixing (m3/s3)

Ivory Coast and ghana

Jan−FebJune−Oct

27.8 27

3.7 3.7

1.0 1.3

95 95

Senegal Dec−June 25.8 4.8 1.0 197Namibia Permanent 15.9 6 1.1 432

Therearetwoperiodsofupwelling,withthemajorupwellingenduring for approximately three months, from around late June.Aminorupwellingisobservedduringthewinterperiodof December to March.23 Figure 13 presents SST data for 2013 from satellite-based MODIS observations for the area between Cape Palmas and Cape Three Points, showing the trajectoryofdeclineandthenincreasedSSTastheupwellingevolves. The geography of the upwelling is clearly apparent inSSTmapsoftheregion(Figure14).

ThedriversoftheGulfofGuineaupwellingarecomplexandthesearehighlightedinSection2.1.Giventhezonal(moreorlesseast–west)alignmentofthecoast,Ekmantransportthatdrivestheupwellingofthe(meridional)coastofWestAfrica(Senegal,Mauritania)andothereasternboundarysystems, is unlikely to be the sole driver of upwelling in this case.24Djakouréet al.(2014)identifiedfourpossibledriversfromtheliterature:a)seasonallydivergingcurrents;b)theverticalmotionofcoastalcycloniceddies;c)Ekmanpumpingcausedbywindstresscurl;andd)theeffectofoceanicKelvinWaves. None of these options are mutually exclusive.25 There aretwosignificanteddiesobservedalongthiscoastline,forming east of Cape Palmas and east of Cape Three Points with a vorticity or eddy strength of up to three.26 However, theresearchofDjakouréet al. concluded that the cyclonic eddies were not responsible for the upwelling phenomenon, although they are still believed to be important in heat and nutrienttransport.AwosikaandFolorunsho(2008)reported“No evident correlation between wind forcing and coastal

23. Bakun,1978;Djakouréet al., 2014.24. Djakouréet al., 2014.25. (a)Ingham,1970;(b)Marchal&Picaut,1977;(c)Colin,1988;(d)Servainet al.,1982;Picaut,1983.26. Djakouréet al., op cit.

Figure 13: Monthly evolution of SSTs fromMODIS observations (source:redrawnfromDjakouréet al., 2014)

Figure14:MeanmonthlySST1995to2006(source:Addison,2009/NOAA-AVHRRdata)

Figure12:ThemajorcurrentsoftheGulfofGuinea(source:adaptedfromUkweet al., 2006;Toualyet al.,2012;Djakouréet al., 2014)

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temperatureduringthemajorupwellingseason”.Ontheotherhand,Wiafeet al.(2008)suggested“windstress-driven Ekman transport was more important than the windstress curl-driven Ekman pumping in affecting changes in SST. They both, however, do not entirely explain the upwelling that is observed alongtheentirecoast.ItisshownthatwindsinthewesternequatorialAtlanticforceeastwardpropagatingupwellingKelvinwavesthatleadtoloweringofsealevelandSSTalongthenorthwesternGoGcoast”.

Historically,therehasbeensignificantvariabilityinSSTintheregion.Forexample,therewasapronouncedcoolingperiodintheearly1980s,followedbyasignificantwarmingperiodfrom1987to1990;thesewarming periods coincided with weaker scores in the annual upwelling index.27 Kouakou et al.(2013)reportedona13-yeardatasetfornearshoreSSTatfoursitesacrosstheGulfofGuinea,includingTakoradiinwesternGhana.Thedataindicatedacoolingperiodbetween1998and2001(withconcomitanthigherupwelling indices)28butwithasignificantlywarmerperiodfrom2005to2011.Asimilardatasetwasreported by Toualy et al.(2012),andthisispresentedinFigure15.Toualyet al. determined that ENSO accountedfor6percentofthevariabilityinSST,withaparticulareffectduringthemajorcoastalupwelling,althoughtheyidentifiedatimelagof18monthsbetweentheENSOandtheSSTresponseintheGulfofGuinea.ThereissomeevidencethatregionalSSTfluctuationsarequasi-cyclical,perhapsoveraperiodof about two to four years,29andareatleastinpartlinkedtoENSOeventsinthetropicalPacificOcean.30

Anumberofstudieshavesuggestedarelationshipbetween rainfall overWestAfrica and SSTanomaliesintheGulfofGuinea.31TheyconfirmedthatwetterconditionsovertheGuineancoast(westernSahel)areassociatedwithwarmSSTsintheGulfofGuinea,althoughthemechanismsresponsible are not yet fully understood.32

Potential impacts of climate changeUnderstandingthelargelynon-linearrelationshipsbetweenoceancirculation,upwellingandSSTvariabilityintheGulfofGuinea,aswellaslocal,regionalandglobalatmosphericandoceanicforcingischallenging.Addingclimatechangestimulitothisalreadyverycomplexsystempresentsanadditionalchallenge.Collins et al.(2010)observedthat“…despiteconsiderableprogressinourunderstandingoftheimpactofclimate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.” There is alsoevidencetosuggestthatrecentwarmingintheNorthAtlanticislinkedtoawarmphaseofthe(natural)AMO,inadditiontoanyforcingfromclimatechange.Infact,astheAMOmovesintoananticipatedcoolerphase,itis“likelytoinfluenceregionalclimatesatleastasstronglyaswillhuman-inducedchanges”.33 In terms of sea level rise, McSweeney et al.(2010)reportedtheoutputsofthreeclimatemodelsthatprojectincreasesbythe2090sof0.13to0.43mforSRESB1;0.16to0.53munderSRESA1B;and0.18to0.56mforSRESA2.Theseincreasesarerelativetomeanlevelsovertheperiod1980to1999.

2.3 Primary productivityTheGCLMEisrankedamongthemostproductivecoastalandoffshoreecosystemsintheworld,withrichfisheryresources34supporting850marinespecies,including745fishspecies35 and algal populations.36 High productivity is largely the result of upwelling, although seasonal rainfall and associated run-off also play a

27. Minta, 2003.28. Aliet al., 2011.29. Dontwi et al,. 2008.30. Chiang et al.,2000;Hardman-Mountford&McGlade,2003;Perry&Sumaila,2006;Toualyet al., 2012.31. Lamb1978;Janicotet al.,1998.32. IPPC, 2013 and IPCC, op cit. 33. IPPC, 2013 and IPCC, op cit. 34. Ukweet al., 2006b.35. FAO,1994.36. Nunoo&Ameka,2005.

Figure15:SSTanomalies(°C)fortheperiod1984-2008(source:RedrawnfromToualyet al., 2012)

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role. Primary production is highly seasonal37 with nutrients introduced by the ascending cold waters into thewarmeruppermixedlayerleadingtoanincreasedabundanceofphytoplanktonandzooplankton.38 Productivitydeclinesastheupwellingrecedesandastablethermoclinedevelops(Figure16).39 Productivity inthecoastalzoneisalsoenhancedbyseasonalprecipitationandriverdischarge,whichoccursastheITCZmovesnorthandcoincideswiththemajorupwelling(aboutJunetoSeptember).40

Mensah(1991)identifiedsomeapproximatecorrelationsindicatingthatthenutrient-richsedimentdischargeresultingfromthedominantpatternrainsjustpriortotheupwelling,inpartatleast,contributetothedegree of biological production during the upwellingitself.Djagoua(2011)identifiedcorrelations between chlorophyll-a and upwellingintensity,butDjagouaalsoobserved that the highest concentrations of chlorophyll-a were around estuaries, the implication being that river discharge amplified the effect of the upwelling (at least locally).Productivity isalsoenhanced by the cyclonic eddies observed to the east of Cape Palmas and Cape Three Points.41

The impact of climate change may include ocean acidification that may affect the growth of calcareous plankton butthereisnospecificevidenceofthis,asyet,fortheGulfofGuinea.Variousevidencesuggeststhatrainfall may decline in the coming decades, presumably leading to decreased run-off and nutrient-rich terrigenoussedimentsreachingGhana’sestuaries.Thereisnoapparentsimplemechanismbymeansofwhich climate change effects may disrupt the coastal upwelling that provides for much of the region’s primary productivity.

3. The sensitivity of small pelagic ecosystems off ghana

TheIPCCGlossaryofTermsdefinessensitivityas“thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimate-relatedstimuli”.42 There are a number of atmospheric, climate, oceanic and productivityparametersthathavebeenobservedtoinfluencesmallpelagicfishpopulations,andthesehavebeenidentifiedinbroadtermselsewhereinthisdocument.Torecap,theseprocesseswereneatlyencapsulated by Bakun43 in what has been subsequently termed “Bakun’s Triad”44 and are as follows:

(1)Enrichmentprocesses(upwelling,mixing,etc.);

(2)Concentrationprocesses(convergence,frontalformation,watercolumnstability);and,

(3)Processesfavouringretentionwithin(ordrifttoward)appropriatehabitat.

To this suite of processes, a number of other factors including, inter alia,SST(excludingthespecificinfluenceofupwellings),preyavailability,andratesofmortalityandpredationcanalsobeconsidered.The observations in this section will be limited to the possible effects that potential or forecast changes tothesefactorsmighthaveonsmallpelagicspecies,andtoBakun’sTriad,intheGulfofGuinea.

37. Herbland et al.,1985.38. Perezet al., 2004.39. Minta, 2003.40. Mensah,1991.41. Picaut,1983;Djakouréet al., 2014.42. IPCC, 2001.43. Bakun,1996;Bakun,1998.44. e.g. Checkley et al., 2013

Figure 16: Seasonal chlorophyll-aconcentrationsintheGulfofGuinea(source:SeaWiFs)

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There is a range of historical and contemporary research that has described, to varying degrees of detail andconfidence,theinteractionofsomeofthesekeyelementswithpopulationsofsmallpelagicfishintheGulfofGuinearegion.Thissectionwillfocusonlyontheimpactsthatclimatevariabilityandclimatechange,asdescribedinSection2,mayhaveonthesmallpelagicfishpopulationsthatareharvestedbyGhanaianfisheries.

3.1 Atmosphere and climateThe sensitivity to atmospheric and climate stimuli is likely to be mainly determined by the effect atmospheric changeshaveonoceanographyandoceanthermaldynamics,butmoredirectlinksarepresent(albeitwithcomplicating feedbacks). The most important is likely to be as a result of the predicted change in the level and timing of rainfall, as evidenced in Section 2.1, which will probably have some impact on plankton abundance in the nearshore areas around the estuaries.

Mensah(1995)showedatimeseriesofzooplanktondisplacementvolumefrom1969to1992,suggestingadecliningtrendinzooplanktonbiomass(Figure17).ThisdatasetwasfurtheranalysedbyWiafeet al. (2008),whodeterminedthat82percent(p<0.001)ofthetotalvarianceinzooplanktonbiomasswasaccounted for by SST, suggesting that the predicted reduction in mean rainfall may have only local effectsonprimaryproductioninnearshoreareas.Giventheirparticularecology,thischangemaybemore important for Engraulidae, which tend to inhabit coastal waters for at least part of their life cycle.

IntermsofthepotentialimpactofanychangetothewindregimeoffGhana,Minta(2003),citingBinet(1997),reported on the apparent relationship between Sardinella catches and along-shore windstress. The mechanism for thisrelationshipwasidentifiedasthepositive effect of increased windstress on enrichment processes and consequently on sardinella larval survival. Minta noted however, that the timing of any increased (orreduced)windstressassociatedwithclimate change was crucial because offshore advection increased larval mortality. There was no evidence available to suggest that windstress is likely to increase as a result of climate change processes.

3.2 Ocean circulation and thermal dynamicsTheGulfofGuineahasshownclimatictrendsthatareconsistentwithglobalchanges.45 However, the attribution of global warming as the cause of an increasing trend in SST, for example, and the observed declineinzooplankton,shouldbeconsideredinthelightoftheapparentsignificantroleofthe(natural)AMOinforcingSSTintheNorthAtlantic.

Nevertheless,thepotentialsensitivityofsmallpelagicfishisclear.Wiafeet al.(2008)observedthat “Amonth’slagexistsbetweenthepeaksofSardinellalarvalabundanceandtotalzooplanktonbiomass,suggesting a ‘match’ between the predators and larval food and, hence, the potential for a climate change induced ‘mismatch’ to compromise recruitment in S. auritastocks”(Cushing,1974,1975,1982,1990).Morespecifically,Wiafeet al.(opcit.)demonstratedareductionintheplanktoniccopepodCalanoides carinatus with respect to the sea surface warming.

Theresponseofsmallpelagicfishtoclimatechangeinducedimpactsonoceanographyarelikelytobespeciesspecific.Forexample,Dontwi(2008)developedsomesimplemodels,includingSSTandprecipitation,tounderstanddriversofsmallpelagicstocksizeandcatchability.ForE. encrasicolus(anchovy)

45. Koranteng&McGlade,2001.

Figure17:DisplacementvolumesofzooplanktonoffGhana1969to1992(source:Mensah,1995)

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Dontwi determined that (reduced)SST was the more important driver of(increased)stocksize.Ontheotherhand, for S. aurita (roundsardinella)higher SST led to larger stock size.Data for S. maderensis(flatsardinella)were interpreted as indicating relative insensitivity to SST. The projectedcatches derived from Dontwi’s work are presented in Figure 18.

3.3 Population recovery/adaptive potentialItisnearlyimpossibletostatewithanydegreeofconfidencetheextenttowhichthestatusofcurrentpopulationsofsmallpelagicfishhavealreadybeenadverselyaffectedbyanthropogenicclimatechangeimpacts. On the other hand, it is apparent that populations are periodically affected by natural oceanographic drivers(suchastheAMO).EvidenceforthistypeofeffectisapparentfromtheanalysisofsmallpelagicfishscaledepositsrecoveredoffthecoastofCalifornia46 which was described in Chapter one.

In the case ofGhana’s (or ratherWestAfrica’s)smallpelagicfishpopulations,significantnaturalinter-annualvariabilityin sardinella biomass is evident in Figure 19,whichpresentstheresultsofacousticsurveysundertakenbyR/VDr Fridtjof NansenintheGulfofGuinea.

The general adaptive capacity of small pelagic species was described in Chapter one of this document. While it is not possibletodescribeorpredictspecificadaptivepotentialforsmallpelagicfishstocksintheGulfofGuinea,thecapacityofsmallpelagicspeciesingeneraltotoleratevariabilityintheirenvironmentwillpartly depend on the status of their populations at the time of any perturbation.

TheFAO(2013)observedthat“Ingeneral,catchesofthewesternstockforSardinella aurita have shown adecliningstatesince2004”(Figure20).Notsurprisingly,therefore,analysisbytheCECAFscientificcommittee suggests that the western stock of S. aurita is overexploited, while the western stock of S. maderensis is fully exploited.47TheassessmentbyDontwi(previouslydescribed)suggeststhatcatchesfor S. aurita could increase by 40 percent, to 140 000 tonnes in 2020, as a result of climate change influencesonSST.However,Figure20indicatesthatthereportedcatchofthisspecieshaddeclinedfrom100 000 tonnes in 2000, to less than 30 000 tonnes in 2008.

46. Field et al.,1999.47. FAO,2013.

Figure18:Projectedcatchestimatesforthreespeciesofsmallpelagicfish(source:redrawnfromDontwi,2008)

Figure19:BiomassestimatesforSardinellaspp.(westernstock)(source:FAO,2013)

Figure 20: Catch of S. auritaoffGhana1990to2008(source:FAO/CECAF,2013)

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Theanalysisofdataandprojectionsforfuturepopulationresponsesisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatpopulationsofsmallpelagicfisharenotrestrictedbynationalpoliticalboundaries.Inthecaseofthesardinellaspecies,forinstance,thereisbelievedtobeasingle(western)stockthatinhabitsthewatersofatleastfourGulfofGuineacountries(IvoryCoast,Ghana,TogoandBenin).Anyremedialfisheriesmanagementinitiativesthat might be introduced to mitigate the impacts of climate change and to bolster population resilience would have to take place across the range of the large proportion of the stock.

AcousticsurveydataforE. encrasicolus is presented in Figure 21. Stock assessment research, although hampered by generally unreliable data, suggests that the western stock of E. encrasicolus is also fullyexploited(Fcur/F0.1=0.89).Overallthesedatashowsimilarpatternsofinterannualvariabilityinstock biomass that are difficult, within the framework of current knowledge and understanding of oceanographic responses, to attribute to climate change.

4. Social component

4.1 Ecological vulnerabilityThe small pelagic ecosystem is influencedbyanumberofglobal,regional and local atmospheric and oceanographic processes. These processesinturnmaybeinfluencedby geomorphological processes (e.g.volcanicactivity)aswellasextraterrestrialphenomenasuchassunspotcycles.Theseprocessestakeplace over varying time scales, ranging from days to decades, and they are likely to have cyclical features andtointeractwithandaffecteachother.IncreasedlevelsofGHGintheatmosphereareanadditionalsourceofinfluence,butthesheercomplexityofalltheseprocessesandtherelativelackofunderstandingofthem,makesthedefinitionofanysortofquantitativeindexofecologicalvulnerabilityofsmallpelagicecosystems of questionable value. Previous sections of this case study have attempted to elucidate at least some elements of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive or recovery capacity, but no attempt will be made to estimate an index of ecological vulnerability.

4.2 Social sensitivitySmallpelagicfisheriesareasignificantcomponentofthecoastalfisheriesinGhanaandsupportanestimated210000fishersat344landingcentresalongthecoast.Fishersaregenerallymale.Ontheotherhand,muchofthefinancingofartisanalfisheries,includingtheharvestandpost-harvestcomponents,isprovidedbyentrepreneurialwomen−so-called“fishmummies”.Afurthertwomillionindividualsarebelievedtobestakeholdersinwider,fisheriesrelatedeconomicsectors.48

Withinthefishingcommunityitselfadegreeofgearspecializationhasdevelopedbetweenthevariousethnic groups, largely as a result of the local marine environment in which they operate. For example, theAnlo-EweethnicgroupmainlyusebeachseinegearswhiletheFante,EffutuandGauseAPWgears.TheincreasingmobilityoffisherswithinGhanaitselfisreportedlyleadingtoadeclineintheseethnicdistinctions in gear use.49

Anexampleofthedirectinteractionbetweenenvironmentandfisherlivelihoods50 is shown in Figure 22.

ThefigureshowsthepatternofannualcoastalrainfallandbeachseineproductioninGhanafrom2000to2009.

48. BankofGhana,2008;Nunoo&Asiedu,2013.49. Mensah et al., 2006.50. Kraan,2009.

Figure 21: Biomass estimates for E. encrasicolus(westernstock)(source:FAO/CECAF,2013)

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There is an apparent negative correlation between rainfall and catch. While on the one hand, higher rainfall and subsequent river discharge is likely to increase local primary productivity,providingsomebenefittosmallpelagicfishstocks,thenatureoftheweathersystemsthatbringtherainfall−oftenwithassociatedstormactivityandlowvisibility−reducestheabilityoffisherstooperate,hence(itispostulated)thelowercatchesinyearsofheavyrainfall(stormactivity).

In the previous subsection, catch data was reported that indicates highly variable biomass andsignificantfluctuationsinthetotallandingsof the important Sardinella group. While such variability tends to be a feature of these genera, it is also worth noting that catch levels for2008wereattheirlowestlevelsince1990.In fact, within the Sardinella group itself, the picture is varied. Landings of the less abundant S. maderensis have, in fact, remained fairly constantsince1990,withtheexceptionofthelarge harvests of 2004 and 2006.

Landing data for E. encrasicolus for the same period(1990to2008)alsoshowthesortofinterannual variability typical of small pelagic fish,butagainwithanoveralldecliningtrendinlandings(Figure23).

In addition to natural interannual variation that willeffectfisherieslivelihoodsandeconomies,fishersofsmallpelagicspeciesalsooperateina highly seasonal context. Figure 24 presents monthlycatchvolumelandedbyAPWandbeach seine gears. Recent data on catch rates fromAsieduandNunoo(2013)depictasimilarseasonal pattern.

These data highlight the strong relationship betweenthemajorupwellingperiodofJunetoSeptember and the catch rate enjoyedbythefishers,whoseactualeffortremainsfairlyconstantthroughouttheyear.Giventheoverall contribution of small pelagic species toGhana’slandings,fishersandtraderswillinevitably face months of reduced income. This is important because, at least according to data from two majorfishingcentres,atAhwiam(WesternRegion)andElmina(CentralRegion),fisheriesarerecordedasthemainoccupationfor93.3and90percentofrespondents,respectively.Fisheriesarethereforelikelytoalsobetheprincipalsourceofincome,andindeedtheyprovide80and85percentoffishers’overallincomeinAhwiamandElmina,respectively(Figure25).Just6percentand10percentofrespondentsatthesetwositesreported being engaged in alternative livelihoods.51Asieduet al.(2013)showedthat,forthetwocoastalsites

51. Asiedu&Nunoo,2013.

Figure 22: Plot of annual rainfall and beach seine catch inGhana

Figure 23: Total landings for E. encrasicolus(source:FAO/CECAF,2013)

Figure 24: Seasonality of small pelagic catch landed by APW&beachseine(Source:redrawnfromKraan,2009)

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previouslyidentified,just6percent(Ahwiam)and18percent(Elmina)ofhouseholdshadestablished pension plans and had access to formal social security. However, the picture was quite different regarding health insurance, withjust18percentofrespondenthouseholdsinAhwiamstatingtheyhadsuchinsurance,compared with 75 percent in Elmina.

Furthermore,Tietzeet al.(2011)reportedthanbeachseinefisheriesprovidedimportantcontributions to a traditional social welfare system “…and provides free fish to thehandicapped, poor and elderly members of thecommunity”.Notwithstandinganydeclineinfisheriesproductionresultingfromclimatechangeandnatural interannual variations, the apparent general decline in overall yields already taking place will have graveimplicationsforthesemarginalizedmembersofcoastalcommunitiesinGhana.

4.3 Social impact potentialThere remain important challenges in attributing change in small pelagic ecosystems to climate change effects, as opposed to interannual variations related to a range of natural atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena. However, an effort to quantify the macro social impact potential of climate change was undertaken by Lam et al.(2012).Inawide-ranginganalysis,LamandhercolleaguesassessedthepotentialimpactoftwoclimatechangescenariosacrossWestAfricaandprojectedsignificant,ifnotquasi-catastrophic,climatechangeimpactsonfisheries.Whileitisimportanttoacknowledgethattheprimaryproductiondataand estimated climate change effect parameters that drive the outputs were applied in a highly complex andvariableenvironment−andtospeciesforwhichdetailedknowledgeisrelativelyscarce−theanalysisis,however,ausefulpointofdeparture.ForGhana,areductioninlandingsof41percent(asmeasuredagainstaveragelevelsinthe2000s)waspredictedby2050foralowrangeGHGemissionsscenario.Forahighrangescenario(theSRESA1Bmodel),thereductioninlandingswasprojectedtobeintheorderof−55percent.ThereductionforGhanaunderthelowrangemodelwasthemostsignificantofall14countriesincludedintheanalysis.GiventhestrongrelianceonfishforthesupplyofdietaryproteininGhana,thiswould result in a 4.5 to 6 percent reduction in protein supply under the low range emissions model, and 6to8percentundertheSRESA1Bhighrangeemissionsscenario.TheimplicationsfortheemploymentofGhanaiansissignificant,withprojectionsofalossofbetween37and52percentoffisheries-relatedjobs(relativetomeanemploymentnumbersduringthe2000s)forthetwoemissionsscenarios,respectively.

4.4 Adaptive capacityAclimatechangedrivendisruptiontothissystemwillobviouslyleadtoconsequencesforcoastaleconomies,livelihooddiversityandthebalanceoftraderelatingtofisheryproducts.However,thereisevidenceofadaptive capacity. For example, the ecological component is, by its very nature, quite dynamic with important within-yearandinterannualcyclesofproduction,andthestocksthemselvesaremigratory;togetherthesefeatureshaverequiredfisherstoadoptflexiblelivelihoodstrategies,includingfishermigrations,inordertoprofitablyexploitthem.Widereconomicandpoliticalfactorsalsocombinewithecologicalcomponentstoinfluencefishers’behaviour.

Thereappeartoberelativelyfewcontemporarydataavailableontheprecisenumbersoffishersthatmigrate,whereandforwhatperiodtheymigrate,andtheirinteractionswiththedomesticfisheriessystemstheyvisit.In1990,Haakonsen(1992)reportedthat3000GhanaianfisherswereoperatingonthecoastofLiberiaandwereestimatedtosupplyasignificant44percentofthetotalmarinecatchofLiberiaatthattime.Chauveau’sresearch(1991)ledtotheproductionofamapoftheextentoffishingandfishtradingmigrationsacrossWestAfricaasawhole.TheGhanaiancomponentofthemigrationisredrawninFigure26.SubsequentpoliticalturmoilhasdramaticallyalteredthepresenceofGhanaianfishersinLiberia,andthenumberofGhanaiansoperatinginthewatersofneighbouringcountriesalsowaxesandwanes in response to a variety of drivers, including civil wars and political dynamics.

Figure25:SourcesofincomeforfishersattwolandingsitesinGhana(source:Asiedu&Nunoo,2013)

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Ina2002survey,Fregene(2002),reportedthatGhanaiansmadeup8.4percentofasampleacrossmarinefishingcommunities.ThemigrationofGhanaianfishers,largelyfromtheEweandFanteethnicgroup,toNigeriaisthoughttodatebacktothe19thCentury,withGhanaianfishersbelievedtohavegreaterfishingskillsandbetterequipmentthantheirNigerianhosts.Theentryintosomeregionalfisheriesbythe Fante is believed to have been itself driven by the collapse of the rubber trade in Ivory Coast in which Ghanaianswerepreviouslyengaged.52 Mensah et al.(2006)reportedthatduringperiodsoflowcatches,somefishersmigratetoinlandwaterbodies,suchasLakeVolta.Morerecently,Fregene(2007)reportedfiguresforNigeriaindicatingthattherewereapproximately“…300000coastalmigrantfishermen,mostlyGhanaians”,althoughthisfigureshouldbetreatedwithcautionbecauseitappearstoexceedthetotalnumber(approximately210000)ofGhanaiansfishinginGhanaitself.

JentoftandEide(2011)arguedthatthehighmobilityofGhanaianfisherswasnotonlyinresponsetothemigrationoffishstocks,butalsobecauseofcoastalerosion,localpopulationpressuresandoverfishing,aswellasaffordinganopportunitytoearnrevenuesinthestrongercurrenciesofadjacentcountriesduringperiodsofeconomicdownturninGhanaitself.Therearetwosidestothemigrationcoin:thedriverisonething, but there also needs to be a suitable alternative, a destination that is worth migrating to. In view of the factthatitisincreasinglydifficulttoidentifyneighbouringstocksthatarenotalreadyunderpressure,anyclimatechangeimpactswilllikelyaffectthosestocksasmuchasthehomestocksofthemigrantfishers.

The declines in catch of small pelagic species and, presumably, improvements in the available technology, appeartohavepromptedatrendtowardsincreasingthefishingeffortofvesselstargetingsmallpelagicfish,particularlyforAPWgeardeployedbyboththesemi-industrialandtheartisanalfleets.Inparticular,thoseusing Watsa gear are increasingly using lights at night, powered by small onboard generators, to increase theirfishingeffortandextendtheavailableseasonfortargetingsmallpelagicspecies.Recentinterview-based research in the Western Region of the country, for example, indicated that the number of Watsafishersusinglightstoimprovetheirfishingsuccessincreasedfromlessthan10percentin2002tomorethan90percent in 2010.53Afurtherdevelopmentthathasincreasedfishingeffortistheuseofcellphones,whichallow cooperating vessels to exchange information on the presence of schools of small pelagic species.

52. Abobi&Alhassan,2015.53. Finegold et al., 2010.

Figure26:MigrationdestinationsofGhanaianfishers(source:redrawnfromChauveau,1991)

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However,increasingfishingeffortismirroredbychangesinthebehaviourofthefleet.Finegoldet al.(2010),againreportingtheresultsofinterviewswithartisanalfishersintheWesternRegion,showedthattherelativetimetakenbyfisherstoreachtheirfishinggroundshasalmosttrebledwhencomparedtothepreviousdecadeandthisincreasehastakenplaceagainstthebackdropofincreaseduseofenginesbythefleet.Thisadaptationisnot,however,awin-winsituation,giventhatstockscontinuetodeclineandimprovedcatchefficiencyisonly likely to hasten such declines.

Ghanaian fishers have also shownadaptive capacity in thedevelopmentof a certain degreeofoccupationaldiversity,althoughpreviousevidence(e.g.seeFigure25)suggeststhatthismightbelimited.Tietzeet al.(2011)reportedthat“Fishersintheartisanalandsemi-industrialsectorsdonothavetherequisite skills to move into other sectors”, in part because of low levels of literacy and other skills. AsieduandNunoo(2013)questionedwhether,evenifthecapacityoffisherswasincreased,alternativejobopportunitiesactuallyexistinsufficientnumbersincoastalGhanatohaveameaningfuleffect,assumingthatnewfisheriesentrants(forexamplefromthedrought-affectedinterior)54 could be constrained. Despite this,thewillingnessoffisherstochangelivelihoodswasreportedinthecasestudiespresentedbyAsieduandNunoo(2013)tobeveryhigh:100percentofrespondentsinAhwiamand93percentinElmina.

AninterestingstudybyPerryandSumaila(2006)observedthatconsumersoffishproteinadaptedtochanges in supply by “prey-switching” to “bushmeat”. However, this strategy has negative outcomes for wildlife, with the authors reporting declines in 41 species in nature reserves near to the coast over the periodof1970to1999,whichtheycorrelatedwithreducedfishsupply.

5. Social-ecological vulnerabilityLookingatthewidersocial-ecologicalsystemofsmallpelagicfisheriesinGhana,Asieduet al.(2013)interviewed respondents on their perceived sources of vulnerability. The scope of vulnerabilities included conflict,theweather,lackofinfrastructure,etc.Thethreeprincipalvulnerabilities,measuredasintensity,atthetwocoastalsitesofAhwiamandElmina were education and capacity, fishstocksandtheavailabilityoffinanceand income streams. The results of their analysis are presented in Figure 27.

The results of this work are perhaps to be expected, pointing as they do to the array of factors within the social-ecological systemthatinfluencefishers’livelihoods,and ultimately the supply of fish in Ghanaianmarkets.Asieduandcolleaguesalso point out that reducing vulnerability ingeneralrequiresasufficientlybroadapproachtoaddressdirectcausesoffisherpoverty(statusoffishstocks,etc.)butalsoinfrastructure, health facilities, access to credit, etc.

ClimatechangeislikelytosimultaneouslyaffectallthesedriversofpovertyinsmallpelagicfishingcommunitiesinGhana.

54. Perry & Sumaila, 2006.

Figure 27: Comparative analysis of vulnerability between fishersat twocoastalfishingvillagesinGhana(source:redrawnfromAsieduet al., 2013)

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6. The management implications of climate change to the beachseinefisheryofGhanaWhenfashioningstrategies,proponentsshouldrecognizeplaceswhereclimatechangewillbenefitlocalfisheriesandplaceswhereclimatechangewillhaveanegativeimpact.55 Conservation methods such asusingfishingnetsofapprovedmeshsize,ordesignatingareasofnofishing,willplayamajorroleinadaptationandreduceoverfishing.56Forinstance,theEAF-NansenProject,insearchofamanagementsolutiontothedegradationoffishstocksbybeachseinegear,hasconcentratedonenforcementoflargermeshsizes,asrequiredbylaw.Thisrestrictivemeasurewillhaveanimmediatenegativeeffectonthefishersbutoverthelongterm,itwillhaveapositiveeffectonthefishstocksandthereforeultimatelyimproverevenuegenerationforthefishers.

Strategiestorenderthefishingsystemmoresustainableandeconomicallyrewardingwillbefundamentaltotheadaptationofsmall-scalefisheries.Specificadaptationinterventionsshouldbuildonfishers’currentstrategies for dealing with risk, shocks and change to avoid maladaptation. For instance, in Sakumono in Accra,beachseinefishersswitchtofishinginthenearbySakumonolagoon,andbecomemoreinvolvedin farming during bad weather periods in the rainy seasons when beach seining becomes impractical.57

ThegovernmentofGhanahasdevelopedmanagementplansandisaddressingcriticalsocio-economicissuespertainingtofisheriesandfishers.Forexample,premixfuelforoutboardmotorshasbeensubsidized;storagefacilitiesforfishhavebeenbuiltclosetofishingcommunities;micro-financeresourceshavebeenmadeavailable,etc.Unfortunately,thereisnodocumentedsuccessstoryrelatedtothemanagementofbeachseinefisheriesinGhanaandKraan(2009)reportsofthefailureoftheimplementationofanalternativelivelihoodprogrammeinGhanaundertheDFID-fundedSustainableFisheriesLivelihoodsProject.

Keystakeholdersintheindustryhaveshowntheneedforpragmaticmeasurestosafeguardthefisheryresources exploited by the beach seine operators. There are national regulations on beach seining stipulating therequiredmeshsize,dimensionoffishinggearandexclusivezones.TheNationalTaskGroupcomposedofindividualsfromthefishingindustry,theMinistryofFisheriesandAquacultureDevelopment,fisherfolk,non-governmentalorganizationsandacademiahaspreparedamanagementplaninconsultationwithvarious stakeholders. This management plan has been approved at the ministerial level and is awaiting the establishmentofamanagementtaskforceaccordingtothefisherieslaw(theFisheriesAct,2002,Act625)toensureitsimplementation.Themainstrategyofthismanagementplanistolimitindustrialfishingeffortthroughalicensingregimeandregulatethemeshsizeofbeachseinebags.AprojectpilotedbytheFisheriesCommissionthatintroducedcommunity-basedfisheriesmanagementcommittees(CBFMC)forthepurposeofensuringamoresustainableuseofnationalfisheryresourceswasnotentirelysuccessfulor sustainable on a nationwide basis.58Thisinitiativelackedastrongcommitmentandzonalapproachto the allocation of user rights on behalf of communities. There is a need to precede such efforts with sensitizationofallrelevantstakeholders,andthecontinuousengagementoffishers,districtassembliesand law enforcement agencies in the enforcement phase to ensure compliance.

Nunoo et al.(2006)recommendedthatthegovernmentofGhanainstitutes,incooperationwithfishers,athree-monthbanonbeach-seining(betweenMayandJuly).Thiswouldsupportthelong-termsustainabilityofGhanaianfishstocks.ManagersofresourcesattheFisheriesCommissionshouldadopttheecosystemapproachtofisheriesmanagementratherthantheconventionalmanagementapproach(whereasinglespecies is managed on its own). There is also a need for a uniform restriction and enforcement on mesh sizeinallcountriesalongtheGulfofGuinea.And,inadditiontotheharmonizationofmanagementplanning,thereisaneedtomainstreamclimatechangeimpactsinfisheriespoliciesinGhana.

Strategiespromotingalternativeincomegeneratingactivities,suchasfishcultureandtherearingofruminantsduringfisheriesclosedseasons,willhelptoreducetheover-dependencebyfishersonthebeach

55. Badjecket al., 2010.56. Grafton,2010.57. Nunoo et al.,2006;Nunoo&Asiedu,2014.58. MOFA,2012.

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seinefishery.AnothersignificantmanagementstrategythatGhanamayadoptisempoweringtheyouththrough formal education. This will allow them to acquire other vocations, to enable them to operate in other areas of the economy and reduce dependence on small pelagic species.

There are two key contextual problems that constrain actors and affect the ability to implement policy. ThefirstisthatGhana’sartisanalfisheriesareunabletosupplyenoughproductstomeetdemandandmatchpricesofimportedfish.Thesecondisthatgiventhelivelihoodoptionsandlowincomelevelsofartisanalfishersandthelivelihoodsofthosedependentontheprocessingandtradingofcoastal-caughtfish,hundredsofthousandsofmostlypoorpeoplearelockedintoaprocessthatgivesthemperverseincentivestofish(withmanyofthemusingsubsidizedfuel)whenstocksarecollapsingandunsustainable.The two are clearly intertwined.

Becauseofdecliningstocks(andlowerpricesofimportedfish),Ghanaisnowimportinghalfofthefishconsumedbyitspeople.TheMinistryofFisheriesandAquacultureDevelopmentattributedthistopoorgovernance,openaccessfisheriesandillegalfishing.Infact,thisisonlyapartialexplanation.Anotherfactoristhatimportedfishischeaper.TheMinisterisalsoreportedtoblameimportsforunderminingGhana’sfisheriesandhassaidthatthegovernmentwillsupporttheexpansionoffishfarminginthecountry.Imports,especiallyoffarmedtilapiafromChina,TaiwanandotherSoutheastAsiancountries,aresignificantandverypopular,eventhoughtilapiaisnotanativefish.Hence,defendingthelivelihoodsofthehundredsofthousandsofinshoreartisanalfishers,andthosewhodependonfishprocessingandtrading,isanearimpossibletask.Supportforartisanalfisheriesinthecurrentcontextwillperpetuateoverfishing,inasituationwherelandedfishpricescannotcompetewithimports.

7. acknowledgementsWearegratefultoProf.YaaNtiamoa-BaiduoftheCentreforAfricanWetlandsforherhelpfuladviceinthe preparation of this report.

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Lamb, P.J.1978.CasestudiesoftropicalAtlanticsurfacecirculationpatternsduringrecentsub-Saharanweatheranomalies:1967and1968.Monthly Weather Review,106:482–491.

Marchal, E. & Picaut, J.1977.Repartition et abondance evaluees par echo-integration des poissons du plateau ivoiro-ghaneen en relation avec les upwellings locaux. J. Rech. Oceanogr.,2:39−57.

McSweeney, C., new, M., Lizcano, g. & Lu, X.2010.TheUNDPClimateChangeCountryProfiles.Improvingtheaccessibilityofobservedandprojectedclimateinformationforstudiesofclimatechangein developing countries. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,91:157−166.

Mensah, M.a.1991.TheinfluenceofclimaticchangesonthecoastaloceanographyofGhana.In Pêcheries Ouest Africaines Variabilité, Instabilité et Changement. P. Cury et C. Roy, editeurs scientifique. ORSTOM Ed. Paris, France. Institut Français De Recherche Scientifique Pour Le Development Et Cooperation.

Mensah, M., koranteng, k.a., Bortey, a. & Yeboah, d.2006.Thestateofworldfisheriesfromafishworkerperspective:theGhanaiansituation.ICSF:SamudraMonograph.

Minta, S. 2003. An assessment of the vulnerability of Ghana’s coastal artisanal fishery to climate change. DepartmentofAquaticBiosciences,TheNorwegianCollegeofFisheryScience,UniversityofTromsø,Norway.(M.ScThesis.)

MoFa. 2010.Mediumtermagriculturesectorinvestmentplan(METASIP)2011−2015.MinistryofFoodandAgriculture,September2010.GovernmentofGhana.

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niang, I., ruppel, o.C., abdrabo, M.a., Essel, a., Lennard, C., Padgham, J. & urquhart, P.2014.Africa.InV.R.Barros,C.B.Field,D.J.Dokken,M.D.Mastrandrea,K.J.Mach,T.E.Bilir,M.Chatterjee,K.L.Ebi,Y.O.Estrada,R.C.Genova,B.Girma,E.S.Kissel,A.N.Levy,S.MacCracken,P.R.Mastrandrea&L.L. White, eds. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. ContributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA,CambridgeUniversityPress,p.1199−1265.

nunoo, F.k.E. & ameka, g.k.2005.Occurrenceofmacro-algaeintheby-catchofbeachseinefisheriesatSakumono,Ghana.West African Journal of Applied Ecology,8:79–87.

nunoo, F.k.E., Eggleston, d.B. & Vanderpuye, C.J.2006.Abundance,biomassandspeciescompositionofnearshorefishassemblagesinGhana,WestAfrica.African Journal of Marine Science,28:589–696.

nunoo, F.k.E & asiedu, B.2013.Aninvestigationoffishcatchdataanditsimplicationsformanagementofsmall-scalefisheriesofGhana.International Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2(3):46−57.

nunoo, F.k.E. & asiedu, B.2014.LivelihoodsofbeachseinefishersinGhana,WestAfrica.In C. Roscoe, ed.Ghana:social,economicandpoliticalissues.USA,NovaSciencePublishers.

overå, r. 1998.Partnersandcompetitors.GenderedentrepreneurshipinGhanaiancanoefisheries.UniversityofBergen.(PhDdissertation).ForthcomingatNordicAfricaInstitute,Uppsala.

Pérez, C., Sicard, M., Jorba, o., Comerón, a. & Baldasano, J.M. 2004. Summertime re-recirculations ofairpollutantsoverthenorth-easternIberiancoastobservedfromsystematicEARLINETlidarmeasurements in Barcelona. Atmos. Environ.,38:3983−4000.doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.04.010.

Perry, r.I. & Sumaila, u.r. 2006. Marine ecosystem variability and human community responses: the exampleofGhana,WestAfrica.Marine Policy,31:125−134.

Picaut, J.1983.PropagationoftheseasonalupwellingintheeasternequatorialAtlantic.Journal of Physical Oceanography,13:18−37.

roy, C.1995.TheCôted’IvoireandGhanacoastalupwellings:dynamicsandchanges.InF.X.BardandK.A.Koranteng,eds.Dynamique et Usage des Ressources en Sardinelles de l ’Upwelling Cotier du Ghana et de la Cote d ’Ivoire. ORSTOM Edition, Paris.

roy, C. 1996.AnupwellinginducedretentionareaoffSenegal:amechanismtolinkupwellingandretention processes. African Journal of Marine Science,19:89−98.

Servain, J., Picaut, J. & Merle, J. 1982.EvidenceofremoteforcingintheequatorialAtlanticOcean.J. Phys. Oceanogr.,12:457–463.

Tietze, u., Lee, r., Siar, S., Moth-Poulsen, T. & Båge, H.E., eds. 2011. Fishing with beach seines. FAOFisheriesandAquacultureTechnicalPaper.No.562.Rome,FAO.149pp.

Toualy, E., Stanojevic, g., kouadio, k.Y. & aman, a. 2012. Multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatureintheNortherncoastofGulfofGuinea.Asian Journal of Applied Sciences,5:552−562.

Thorncroft, C. d., & Hodges, k. 2001.AfricaneasterlywavevariabilityanditsrelationshiptoAtlantictropical cyclone activity. J. Climate,14:1166–1179.

ukwe, C.n., Ibe, C.a., nwilo, P.C. & Huidobro, P.a. 2006a. Contributing to the WSSD targets on oceansandcoastsinWestandCentralAfrica:theGuineaCurrentLargeMarineEcosystemProject.International Journal of Oceans and Oceanography,1(1):21–44.

ukwe, C.n., Ibe, C.a. & Sherman, k.2006b.Asixteen-countrymobilizationforsustainablefisheriesintheGuineaCurrentLargeMarineEcosystem.Ocean and Coastal Management,49:385–412.

uSaId.2011.Ghanaclimatechangevulnerabilityandadaptationassessment.Accra,Ghana.UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment.

Wiafe, g., Yaqub, H.B., Mensah, M.a. & Frid, C.L.J. 2008. Impact of climate change on long-term zooplanktonbiomassintheupwellingregionoftheGulfofGuinea.ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65:318–324.

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Chapter 5

THE SMaLL PELagIC FISHErIES oF SEnEgaL

By

Djiga Thiao Oceanographic Research Centre of Dakar-Thiaroye/ Centre de Reserches

océanographiques de Dakar-Thiaroye

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Chapter5:ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofSenegalContents ...............................................................................................................................................Page

1. ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofSenegal ........................................................................................... 129 1.1 The marine environment ........................................................................................................ 129 1.2 Thefishery ............................................................................................................................. 129 1.3 Species diversity .................................................................................................................... 130 1.4 Recent trends ......................................................................................................................... 1312. Senegal’s marine environment and its exposure to climate change ............................................... 132 2.1 Atmosphereandclimate ........................................................................................................ 132 2.2 Ocean currents and thermal dynamics ................................................................................... 133 2.3 Primary productivity .............................................................................................................. 1363. The sensitivity of the small pelagic ecosystem .............................................................................. 138 3.1 SocialdimensionofsmallpelagicfisheriesinSenegal ......................................................... 139 3.2 AdaptivecapacityofsmallpelagicfisheriesinSenegal ........................................................ 1404. Socio-ecological vulnerability ....................................................................................................... 143 4.1 Ecological vulnerability ......................................................................................................... 143 4.2 Social vulnerability ................................................................................................................ 1435. SmallpelagicfisheriesmanagementimplicationsinSenegal ....................................................... 1446. References ..................................................................................................................................... 147

ListoffiguresFigure1: ThecoastalzoneofSenegalandNorthwestAfrica .......................................................... 129Figure2: MajorcoastallandingssitesofSenegal ............................................................................ 130Figure 3: Common small pelagic species caught in Senegal ........................................................... 130Figure 4: The migration of S.aurita ................................................................................................. 131Figure5: Fishingeffort(days)bytheartisanalsardinellafleet,1990to2011. ................................ 131Figure6: Totalcatchofsmallpelagicspecies,1990to2011 ........................................................... 132Figure7: ModelledchangesinprecipitationforWestAfrica,OctobertoMarch ............................ 133Figure8: ModelledtemperaturechangeinWestAfrica,JunetoAugust ......................................... 133Figure9: MajoroceancurrentsoffWestAfrica ............................................................................... 133Figure10:DecadaltrendsinSSTfromtheperiod1998to2007(withSDoftrends) ....................... 135Figure11: Themonthlyclimatology(1981to2010)fortheMauritania−Senegaleseupwellingzone ...135Figure12:SEAWIFSimageofchlorophyll-a boreal summer ........................................................... 136Figure13:SEAWIFSimageofchlorophyll-a boreal winter. ............................................................. 136Figure 14: Decadal trends in surface chlorophyll-a,1998to2007(withSDoftrends) ..................... 137Figure 15: Biomass estimates for sardinella ...................................................................................... 139

List of tablesTable1: SomeparametersofAfricanupwellings .......................................................................... 129Table2: ResultsofFAOworkinggrouponsmallpelagicfish ...................................................... 139

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1. ThesmallpelagicfisheriesofSenegal

1.1. The marine environmentSenegalextendsfrom12°to17°Nandfrom11°to18°W.Oriented north−south, itscoastline is approximately 700kmlong(Figure1).Thecontinental shelf is about 23 092 km2 and the EEZ approximately 158 861 km2. The width of the continental shelf off Senegal is about 27 nautical miles (nmi)adjacenttothenortherncityof Saint-Louis, but it narrows to 5 nmi in the central Cape Verde Peninsular aroundDakar and is at its widest (about 87 nmi) in theCasamance coastal region in the south of the country. Around the Cape VerdePeninsular, the seabed is rocky, but other areas of the Senegalese coast are characterizedbyeithersandyor muddy seabeds.

The key feature of this marine environment, as it pertains to fisheries,isthepresenceofawinter upwelling and the basic parameters of this upwelling are presented in Table 1. During the summer periodtheareaoffSenegal(andsouthernMauritania)ischaracterizedbyanactivedownwelling.

Table 1: SomeparametersofAfricanupwellings (source:Roy,Nd.)

Location Period SST (Median °C)

Wind speed (m/s-1)

upwelling index

(m3/s-1/m)

Wind mixing (m3/s3)

Senegal Dec−May 25.8 4.8 1.0 197Ivory Coast & Ghana

Jan−Feb June−Oct

27.8 27

3.7 3.7

1.0 1.3

95 95

Namibia Permanent 15.9 6 1.1 432

1.2 The fisheryTheSenegalesecoastisrichinfisheriesresourcesandsmallpelagicfishspeciescurrentlyconstitutemorethan75percentoftotallandings.Smallpelagicspeciesaremainlyexploitedbyartisanalfisheries,usingpurseseinesandgillnets.Since2010,justfoursmallindustrialpurseseinershavetargetedsmallpelagicfishandaveragetotallandingshaveamountedto3500tonnesperannum.Withannualtotallandingsofaround450000tonnesduringrecentyears,theartisanalfisheriesareresponsibleformorethan80percent

Figure1:ThecoastalzoneofSenegalandNorthwestAfrica

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oftotalfisheriesproductioninSenegal.1Anestimated50percentofthetotalnationalcatchislandedatthemajorcoastalfishlandingsiteswhicharepresentedinFigure2.2

There is a substantial degree of cross-border f ishing activitybySenegalesefisherswho operate in Mauritanian waters, to the north. However, much of their catch is landed in Senegal, at the port of Saint-Louis. In 2012, 275 Senegalese canoes were issuedwithlicencestofishin Mauritanian waters for a period of three months. Among the regulationsimposed on licensees was a requirement to land 15 percent of the catch in Mauritania itself. The export of small pelagic species is an important regional trade opportunity for Senegal, particularly with Burkina Faso,GuineaandMali.3

1.3 Species diversityTheproductionofthesmallpelagicfisheriesisessentiallydominatedbytwosardinellaspecies,theroundsardinella(Sardinella aurita)andMadeiransardinella(Sardinella maderensis). Other exploited small pelagicspeciesincludebongashad(Ethmalosa fimbriata),falsescad(Caranx rhonchus), chub mackerel (Scomber japonicas),horsemackerel(Trachurus trachurus)andEuropeanpilchard(Sardina pilchardus) (Figure3).TheSenegal(andCanaryCurrent)ecosystemisunusualwhencomparedtoothereasternboundaryupwellingsystemsbecauseanchovy(Engraulidae)arenotasignificantpartofthesmallpelagicspecies assemblage.4

1. FAO,2013.2. FAO,2011.3. FAO,opcit.4. Arísteguiet al.,2009.

Figure2:MajorcoastallandingssitesofSenegal(source:redrawnfromFAO,2008)

Figure3:CommonsmallpelagicspeciescaughtinSenegal(source:Fishbase)

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AnimportantfeatureofthesmallpelagicspeciescaughtofftheNorthwestAfricancoastistheirhighlymigratorynature.Anapproximation of the temporal and spatial migration pattern of S. aurita is presented in Figure 4. Note that S. aurita is observed off Senegal during the period of the highly productive winter upwelling. It is believed that during the latter part of the upwelling phase spawning takes place, although this is also possibly triggered by the early phase of the summer downwelling, an oceanographic phenomenon that increases larval retention rates.Astheupwellingends,thefishmovenorth and take advantage of the strong summer upwelling located off Mauritania, and then possibly move as far as Morocco, before migrating south again, although that part of the migration is less well understood.5

1.4 Recent trendsAtimeseries(1990−2011)offishingeffortbytheartisanalfleetispresentedinFigure5.FAO(2013)notes thatalthough the totaleffort (in canoe days) has oscillated byapproximately 20 percent over the period of the time series, there has been an increase in themeansizeofcanoesandthereforeeffective catching effort has increased, which isnotreflectedinthesebasicdata.

In terms of total landings, S. aurita is the dominant species;landingsforthisspecieswerecharacterizedbyarapidincrease during the 1980s,before experiencing a downward trendinthe1990s,withalowestlevelof83000tonnesin1999(Figure 6). However, since2001 a reversal of this trend is noted, with the highest catch of S. aurita (263594 tonnes)recordedin2009.6 This recent increase is because of a bilateral agreement between Senegal and Mauritania which annually grantsabout300fishinglicenses.For S. maderensis, the landings recorded an upward trend that

5. Zeeburg, 2008.6. FAO,2013.

Figure 4: The migration of S. aurita(source:Zeeburg,2008)

Figure5:Fishingeffort(days)bytheartisanalsardinellafleet,1990to2011(source:FAO,2013)

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reached its highest level in 2003with164469tonnes.Since then, the landings have generally decreased. The two species of S. aurita and S. maderensis constitute about 47 and 20 percent of thetotalartisanalfisheriesproduction respectively. E. fimbriata is the third most important small pelagic species. With a maximum catch of 24 471 tonnes achieved in 2001, the production of this species has seen a signif icant downward trend during the last decade.

2. Senegal’s marine environment and its exposure to climate change

2.1 Atmosphere and climate WindstressThere are two principal wind patterns in Senegal and each is associated with the relative position of the ITCZ.Duringthewintermonths,thewindispredominantlyfromthenortheastanddrivesupwelling;duringthe summer months the wind is predominantly from the southwest and drives downwelling processes. ThetimingandextentofthemigrationoftheITCZis(generally)determinedbycross-equatorialSSTgradients and atmospheric heat gradients and therefore should be sensitive to the effects of increased GHGemissionsontheseparameters.However,thereissomeevidence7 that the position of the ITCZ may in fact be relatively insensitive, or at least the sensitivity may be highly variable regionally.

Cropper et al.(2014)presentedevidencethatsupportstherealizationoftheso-calledBakunupwellingintensificationhypothesisoffNorthwestAfrica.ThishypothesissuggeststhatglobalwarmingassociatedwithincreasedGHGemissionswillcausereducednighttimecoolingandincreaseddaytimeheatingof continental landmasses, therefore increasing the gradient between land and oceans and generating a subsequent increase in windstress and associated upwelling/downwelling. However, the windstress indicesfortheMauritania-Senegalesezoneactuallyshowedadecreasingtrend(althoughitwassignificantfor only one of the indices) during the winter upwelling period, but with an increase in downwelling-favourablewindssouthof19°Nduringthesummer.TheIPCC(2014,chapter30)highlightsthechallengesof determining any sort of trend given the often contradictory nature of available data and analyses. For example,theIPCCcitesGómez-Gesteiraet al.(2008)whofounda20percent(winter)and45percent(summer)decreaseinthestrengthofupwellingfortheCanaryCurrentasawholeovertheperiod1967to2006, as a result of decreasing wind speed. On the other hand, the IPCC reports the work of Barton et al. (2013)whichdidnotindicateanycleartrendinwindstrengthoverthepast60years.

Therearealsovariablebutnon-GHGemissionrelatedbackgroundatmosphericprocessesthatcandrivewindstressvariability.Forexample,theNAO,whichisanatmosphericphenomenondrivenbypressuredifferencesbetweentheIcelandicpolarlowpressurezoneandtheAzoressubtropicalhighpressurezone.

7. McGeeet al., 2014.

Figure6:Totalcatchofsmallpelagicspecies,1990to2011(source:FAO,2013)

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TheNAOindexexplainedasmuchas53percentofthevariabilityofwindstressdeliveredbynortheasterlytrade winds, at least off Mauritania.8

RainfallInthetropicalandsubtropicalareasrainfallplaysasignificantroleinthebalanceoftheseasonalandlong-term ecological condition of coastal waters. Therefore, its trend is a key indicator of the exposure of the Senegalese coastal environment to climate change.

Dataavailablefromthreemajorcoastalstations(Ziguinchor,DakarandSaint-Louis)indicateaveryhighinterannualvariabilitybutageneraldecreasingtrendofrainfallinSenegalsince1950,9 although at a single stationtheinterannualvariationcouldbehundredsofmillimeters.AtZiguinchorstation,forexample,the difference in rainfall between1977and1978was815 mm. There was a partial recoveryinthe1990s.Then,between 2000 and 2009,the recovery slowed down andthe2000to2009meanremained about 15 percent lowerthanthe1920to1969mean.

On a wider time–spacescale, many studies are in agreement about high rainfall variability and a general decrease in precipitation in Senegal and the whole Sahel region.10 At the sametime, the rainfall contours shifted progressively from north to south. In the whole Sahelianzone,therainfallwas also characterizedby high variability on interannual and interdecadal timescales, which make long-term trends difficult to identify, and to determine the current and potential effects of anthropogenic climate change forcing. For theWAM itself, theIPCCWGIAR5 (2013)stated that “There is low confidenceinprojectionsof a small delay in the WestAfricanrainyseason,with an intensification of

8. Meiners et al., 2010.9. Thiao,2009.10. e.g. Malou et al,.1999;Niang-Diopet al., 2002.

Figure8:ModelledtemperaturechangeinWestAfricaJunetoAugust(source:IPCC,2013a)

Figure7:ModelledchangesinprecipitationforWestAfrica,OctobertoMarch(source:IPCC,2013a)

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late-seasonrains.Thelimitedskillsofmodelsimulationsfortheregionsuggestlowconfidenceintheprojections”.Figure7presentsIPCCmodeloutputsforpotentialchangeinprecipitationinWestAfrica.

Asfarasatmospherictemperaturesareconcerned,theprojectionsareforanincreaseacrossWestAfrica,with the actual degree being dependent on the particular climate model chosen, and a worst case scenario ofameanincreaseoftemperatureapproaching5°Cduringthesummer(whichisalsotheperiodofthemajorupwelling)by2100(Figure8)andasimilarforecastforthewinterperiod.11

2.2 Ocean currents and thermal dynamicsThemajorcurrentsoffthecoastofNorthwestAfricaarepresentedinFigure9.Amongthesecoastalcurrents, the Canary Current is the main driver in the so-called Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME)region.

Sea surface temperatureThe IPCC,12 reporting the work of various authors, states that the Canary Current in its entirety has shown awarming trend since the 1980s(0.09°Cdecade-1, p-value<0.05). The IPCC goes on to provide a mechanism that could drive such warming, i.e. a mean decrease in wind speed (windstress)intheregion.However,the evidence of an apparent decrease in wind speed is acknowledged in the same IPCC report as being contradicted by other, apparently equally plausible, analyses.

There are also important subregional variations.Forexample,Arísteguiet al.(2009)citedtheworkofOuld-Dedah et al. (1999)whoanalysedInternational Comprehensive Ocean-AtmosphereDataSet(ICOADS)SSTdatafortheperiod1946to1988andreportedthatnearshorewatersbetween20°Nand26°Nwerecooling.Thisisconsistentwiththeanalysisof Cropper et al.(2014)andtheupwellingintensificationhypothesis.ButOuld-Dedahet al. also observed anoverallwarmingsouthof20°N,i.e.,inthenorthernsectoroftheMauritanian–Senegalesesubregion,possiblyconsistentwithincreaseddownwellinginthatarea.AcloserlookatspecificanalysescompletedbyArísteguiandhiscolleagues−researchthatwascitedbytheIPCCasevidenceforageneralwarmingtrendintheCanaryCurrent−revealsdistinctregionaldifferencesinSSTtrend,particularlyatthesouthernextreme of the current system where cooling was observed, albeit using a relatively short time series of AVHRRdatafrom1998to2007.ThesedataarepresentedinFigure10.Suchvariations,notunsurprisinggiventheevidenttransitionzoneinclimateandoceanographysouthofapproximately20°N,highlightthe importance of research at appropriate geographical scales and that the reporting of this research adequately captures those subregional variations.

11. IPCC, 2013a.12. IPCC,2014(chapter30).

Figure9:MajoroceancurrentsoffWestAfrica(source:redrawnfromArísteguiet al.,2009)

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UpwellingThe climatology of the coastal region of Northwest Africaresultsinthreezonesofupwelling,eachwiththeirownparticularcharacteristics.Tothenorth(fromlatitudes26−35°N)apermanentupwellingexists,but it is seasonal with increased intensity in summer months;apermanent,year-roundupwellingisobservedinlatitudes21−26°N;andfinallytothesouththereisawinterupwellingfrom12−19°N,theMauritania−Senegaleseupwellingzone.13Incontrasttothezonestothenorth,theSenegalesezoneischaracterizedbydownwellingduringthesummermonths(e.g.Jun−Jul−Aug)(Figure11).Thecoolandnutrient-richupwelledwaters along the coastal shelf edge are a consequence oflongshorewindforcing(Ekmantransport).Thestrength and position of the wind depends on the latitudinal migration of the ITCZ and the associated Azoreshighpressurearea,bothoscillatingbetweentheir northernmost and southernmost positions in summer/winter respectively.

Observations in Section 2.1 relating to windstress and the upwelling intensification hypothesis, indicated that some evidence exists that the upwelling off Mauritania/Senegal may be affected by increased windstress resulting from increased land-ocean thermal gradients driven by anthropogenic GHGemissions.

And,mentionhasalreadybeenmadeoftheapparenteffectoftheNAOonwindstressinSection2.1. ApositiveNAOhasbeenshowntoexplain53percentofwindstressvariability(offMauritania)andtherefore is also likely to explain a high percentage ofupwellingvariabilitygiventhecause–effect

relationship between the two phenomena.DuringNAO+phases (e.g.1990 to2000)upwelling is more intense and more widely extended along the coast of Northwest Africa. There is evidencethat the NAO index hasbeen increasing in recent decades (i.e. representingan increased atmospheric pressure differential) and that interdecadal variability has also increased, suggesting moreintenseNAO+aswellasmoreintenseNAO-events.

13. Benazzouzet al.,2014;Cropperet al., 2014.

Figure 10: Decadal trends in SST from the period 1998to2007(withSDoftrends)(source:Arísteguiet al.,2009)

Figure11:Themonthlyclimatology(1981to2010)fortheMauritania–Senegaleseupwellingzone(source:redrawnfromCropperet al., 2014)

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Chapter 5: The small pelagic fisheries of Senegal

Thepossibleexplanationforthisincludesnaturalforcing(e.g.volcanicaerosols;changesinsolaractivity),butalsoanthropogenicforcing,i.e.GHGemissions.14

SalinitySeawatersalinityinfluencestheseasonalandlong-termdistributionandabundanceofmanyspecies.This is particularly the case for most of the small pelagic species that are generally stenohaline, meaning that they tolerate very little variation in salinity. The exception to this is E. fimbriata whose biological cycleismoredependentonestuarineenvironments.Therefore,significantmodificationofvariabilityofsalinity constitutes a determinant exposure factor that could result from climate change. From the data collectedlocallyinfourcoastalsitesbytheOceanographicResearchCenterofDakar-Thiaroye(CRODT),until1997itwasclearthatthesalinityhadbeenincreasingsincethe1970s.Forinstance,anaverageincreaseof0.03g/lhadbeenrecordedperyearinMbourwhichisoneofthemajorsmallpelagiclandingsitesinSenegal.However,unliketheperiodfrom1970to1987,duringwhichtheincreasingtrendwasconsiderable,arelativelymoderateincreasewasnotedduringthe1990s.Thissituationisprobablylinkedto the partial recovery of rainfall patterns over the same period.

2.3 Primary productivityThe Canary Current is considered as a Class 1 ecosystem corresponding to the highest level of productivity. Its total primary production is more than >300 gCm-2y-1.15 The primary production, which corresponds toplankton,isthefirstelementoftheaquaticfoodchain.Phytoplanktonisthebasiccomponentofplankton and is generally measured as the concentration of chlorophyll. The second component that feedsoffphytoplanktoniszooplanktonandconstitutesthefoodofmostoftheexploitedsmallpelagicspecies in Senegal. Therefore, the level and evolution of primary production, which is also very sensitive toenvironmentalconditions(e.g.mineralsaltsconcentration,sunlight,turbidity,etc.),isakeyfactorfor the abundance of the small pelagic species. The seasonal variation in chlorophyll-a concentration is presentedinFigure12and13.IntheMauritania/Senegalesezone,chlorophyll-a concentrations during the winter upwelling are clearly higher.

Upwellingproductivityisaugmentedbymajorriversystems.16ThereareseveralmajorriversystemsalongtheSenegalesecoast:theCasamance,theSenegalandtheGambiarivers,whichareimportantsourcesofnutrients that further enhance ocean productivity.

AnimportantfeatureoftheCanaryCurrentsystemisthattheupwellingtakesplacerelativelyfarfromthecoast owing to the width of continental shelf. The result of this is that there is relatively little movement of watermassesperpendiculartothecoast(cross-shore)comparedtoothereasternboundaryupwellingsystems.

14. Gilletet al., 2003.15. Sherman&Hempel,2009.16. Sambe, 2012.

Figure13:SEAWIFSimageofchlorophyll-a during boreal winter

Figure12:SEAWIFSimageofchlorophyll-a during boreal summer

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Thesignificanceofthisforecosystemproductionisthat the system has relatively high rates of nutrient retentioninthecoastalarea(e.g.irondeliveredtotheocean by the substantial rivers in the region) because nutrients are not advected offshore by the upwelling cell. The relatively shallow continental shelf also means that nutrients are not lost from the system by sinking into the abyss.17

The IPCC18 reports that there is “medium evidence and medium agreement that primary production in the Canary Current has decreased over the past two decades”, but the picture is complicated and hugely variable locally. For example, Sherman and Hempel (2009),reportingondatafromtheperiod1998to2006,indicated chlorophyll-a concentrations were declining atanaverageof0.0139mg/m3 per year along the Canary Current as a whole. However, a much more nuanced regionalanalysisbyArísteguiet al.(2009)suggestedimportantregionalvariations,withsignificantincreasesoffcoastalMauritania,butsignificantdecreasesoffcoastalSenegal(Figure14).Theapparentreductionin concentrations of chlorophyll-a off Senegal may be at least partially consistent with the increase in the strength of the summer downwelling in that region observed by Cropper et al.(2014).

Anaspectofclimatechangethatisattractingincreasedattentionistheacidificationoftheoceans,withparticular concern pertaining to the saturation rates of CaCO3 (botharagoniteandcalciteforms)whichis essential, for example, to coccolithophore and formaminerfera groups of calcereous plankton.19 The crucial metric in this case is the CaCO3 saturation rate, with pre-industrial rates typically being very low (afewpercentbyvolume).Ageneraldescriptionofthephenomenonisincludedintheintroductiontothisdocument,butmorespecificallyforNorthwestAfrica,andcitingtheworkofBartonet al.(2012),the IPCC notes that the waters of eastern boundary upwelling systems, such as found off Northwest Africa,aretypicallylowinpHandhaverelativelyhighconcentrationsofCO2, thereby increasing their vulnerabilitytooceanacidification.

However,modellingbyLachkarandGruber(2012)suggeststhattheCanaryCurrentmaybelesssensitivetoacidificationthanappearstobethecasefortheCaliforniaupwellingsystem,forexample.Theyfindthatcontinued emissions of atmospheric CO2 will increase the volume of undersaturated water in the Canary system from current levels of about 5 percent to approximately 25 percent by 2050 as atmospheric CO2

levels increase to about 540 ppm. This will “lead to substantial habitat compression for CO2-sensitive species in both systems, particularly organisms that use CaCO3 to build mineral structures”.20 This is compared to 75 percent volume of undersaturated waters in the California system, as a result of different fractions under current atmospheric CO2 levels(5percentfortheCanarysystemversus25percentforCalifornia). On the other hand, when upwelling-favourable winds are increased in the Canary system model, the volume of undersaturated nearshore water actually declines. In the California system model, similar scenarios result in an increase in volume up to approximately 40 percent. The authors put this down to theparticularcharacteristicsoftopographyandthewidthofthecontinentalshelfinNorthwestAfrica(thesamefeaturesbrieflydescribedpreviouslythatappeartoplaysuchanimportantroleinnutrientretention).

17. Lachkar&Gruber,2012.18. IPCC, 2013a.19. E.g. Doney et al.,2009.20. Lachkar&Gruber,2012.p.8.

Figure 14: Decadal trends in surface chlorophyll-a,1998to2007(withSDoftrends)(source:Arísteguiet al.,2009)

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3. The sensitivity of the small pelagic ecosystem

TheIPCCGlossaryofTermsdefinessensitivityas“thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimate-relatedstimuli”.21 There are a number of atmospheric, climate, oceanic and productivityparametersthathavebeenobservedtoinfluencesmallpelagicfishpopulationsandthesehavebeenidentifiedinbroadtermselsewhereinthisdocument.Torecap,theseprocesseswereneatlyencapsulated by Bakun22 in what has been subsequently termed “Bakun’s Triad”23 and are as follows:

(1)Enrichmentprocesses(upwelling,mixing,etc.);

(2)Concentrationprocesses(convergence,frontalformation,watercolumnstability);and,

(3)Processesfavouringretentionwithin(ordrifttoward)appropriatehabitat.

To this suite of processes can be added a number of other factors including, inter alia,SST(excludingthespecificinfluenceofupwelling),preyavailability,andratesofmortalityandpredation.Theobservationsin this section will be limited to the potential effects on small pelagic species of the potential or forecast changes of these factors, and to Bakun’s Triad, off the coast of Senegal, with additional observations made fromneighbouringMauritaniaasandwhentheypertaintoSenegal’ssmallpelagicfishery.

Small pelagics species are generally stenoecious, meaning that they are capable of surviving only in specializednichesorhabitatswithspecificenvironmentalconditions.Beingunabletotoleratehightemperatureandsalinityvariations,smallpelagicfish,andmorespecificallyS. aurita, are stenothermic and stenohaline species.24ThisaffinityisalreadydemonstratedbyCuryandRoy(1989)throughtheoptimal environmental window theory. Therefore, changes in the oceanography off the Senegalese coast arelikelytoaffect,forexample,thespawningareasandseasons,foodavailability,migrationtrajectory,abundance, etc. of small pelagic species.

Areductioninphytoplanktonandzooplanktonabundance,whichtogetherformthebasisofthedietofsmallpelagicspecies,willlikelyhavesomeimpactontheabundanceofthespecies.Pelagicfisharehighlyrepresented in the suite of species that have shifted their distributions in the past and might be especially likely to experience range shifts with global climate change.25ApartfromE. fimbriata, whose distribution ismoretightlydeterminedbytheenvironmentalconditionsofmajorWestAfricanestuaries,mostofthe small pelagic species are very mobile, depending on oceanographic factors and primary production. Trends in primary productivity across the Canary Current region, reported in Section 2.3, suggest an overalldecline,whilesubregionalanalysis(albeitofrelativelylimiteddatasets)pointstoimportantlocal variations in that trend, including declines off Senegal but increases in coastal productivity off Mauritania.Althoughthesechangesmaybespecificallylinkedtoclimatechangeeffects(continentalheating)onwindstressandsubsequentupwelling/downwelling,theymayalsobe(atleastpartly)drivenbybackgroundatmosphericprocessessuchastheNAO.Ithasbeennotedelsewherethattheremaybeanorthwards shift in the distribution of S. aurita,whichmayreflectthelocalincreaseinprimaryproductivity,perhapslengtheningresidencetimesduringmigration.TheimplicationsofthisforSenegalesefisherswould not be positive.

However,Demarcq(2009)observednon-significantrelationshipsbetweentrendsinSSTandtrendsinbiomasswithinupwellingsystems.AndArísteguiet al.(2009)arguethatrecentchanges(overalldeclines) in productivity in the Canary Current ecosystem, whether or not caused by climate change, are notnecessarilyfeedingthroughintofisheriesproduction.Theyarguethatthedistributionofsardinellaspecies is primarily determined by thermal, rather than productivity, gradients. The two may be indirectly linked, of course.

21. IPCC, 2001.22. Bakun,1996;Bakun,1998.23. e.g. Checkley et al., 2013.24. Binet,1982;Fréon&Misund,2013.25. Harley et al.,2009.

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Thermal gradients are driven by the extent of upwelling, a phenomenon driven by atmospheric processes includingtheNAO,whichisalsomediatedbytheparticulargeomorphology(e.g.thewidthofthecontinentalshelf)offNorthwestAfrica.EvidencepresentedinSection2.2suggeststhatanincreaseinNAOindexisatleastpartlydrivenbyanthropogenicGHGemissions,butthatthepositivedirectionofchangeintheNAOmayresultinincreasedupwelling.Inturn,thereisevidencethattheabundanceofsardinella(andsardinesfurthernorth),asmeasuredbycatchratedata,isatleastpartlydependentontheNAOindex.ICES(2012)presented analyses that suggest S. auritahasquiteawidetoleranceofNAO-influencedenvironments,withanenvironmentalwindowbetween-1to0andat>2.TheNAOexplained32percentoftheabundanceofS. aurita. The situation was a little different for S. maderensis,withoptimalNAOvaluesfrom0−1.7,andadecliningabundanceastheNAOindexincreasedbeyondthat.TheNAOindexexplained42percentofthe abundance of S. maderensis.

Population adaptation/recovery potentialBiomass estimates generated f rom acoust ic su r veys conducted by the R/V Dr Fridtjof Nansen off Northwest AfricaarepresentedinFigure15. It is clear that there is a large amount of interannual natural variability of production, a feature characteristic of small pelagic species. Some of the adaptive ecology of these species has already been described in the introduction to this document.

Morespecifically,fortheMorocco-SenegalsubregionastockassessmenthasbeencarriedoutforS. aurita undertheauspicesoftheFAOCECAFworkinggroupanditsmostrecentoutputispresentedinTable2.

Table 2: ResultsofFAOworkinggrouponsmallpelagicfish (source:FAO,2013)

Stock / indicator of biomass Bcur/B0.1 Bcur/BMSY Fcur/FMSYyr Fcur/FMSY Fcur/F0.1

S. aurita/CPUEEUfleet 53% 58% 228% 323% 359%

Currentbiomassisjust58percentoftheestimatedbiomassthatcanyieldamaximumsustainableyield(MSY).CurrentfishingmortalityisestimatedtobemorethanthreetimestheoptimallimitforMSY.Theassessmentalsoindicatedthatthestrongyearclassesof2002and2007werelargelyfishedoutwithintwoyears,suchistheleveloffishingeffortandfishingmortality.Theclearimplicationisthatweakyearclasseswillnotbeabletosustainthefishery.

3.1 Social dimension of small pelagic fisheries in SenegalFish consumption in SenegalFisheriesresourcesareanimportantcomponentofSenegal’seconomyandfoodsecurity,withfishproteincontributing 80 percent of total animal protein consumed by the coastal population.26 Senegal has the highestleveloffishconsumptioninWestAfrica,withanestimated330000tonnesofsmallpelagicfishconsumedannually(thisrepresentsanapproximatemeanfigureoverthelastfiveyears).Themeanannualpercapitaconsumptionisabout25.9kg/person/year.27 Only about 15 percent, or 45 000 tonnes, of the landings of small pelagic species are exported.

26. Failler & Lecrivain, 2003.27. Lam et al., 2012.

Figure 15: Biomass estimates for sardinella

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Chapter 5: The small pelagic fisheries of Senegal

Intheinteriorofthecountrysmallpelagicfisharealmosttheonlytypeoffishavailableandaremarketedfresh(transportedbyrefrigeratedtrucks)aswellasindriedandsmokedform.Theavailabledatadonotseparatelyindicatethecontributionofthedifferentspeciestooverallfishconsumption.Themajorityofthefishconsumeddomesticallyisprovidedbytheartisanalfisheries,withanegligiblecontributionbyindustrialfisheries.Althoughthereareotherspeciesavailable,includingdemersalspeciesandcephalopods,these are typically more expensive and export-oriented, with close to 100 percent of the latter being exported.28ThemaindestinationforexportsareMali,BurkinaFasoandGuinea.

Availability and accessibility of small pelagic fish Economic realities also play a role in a country where poverty levels are high. Low purchasing power encouragespeopletobuysmallpelagicfishbecausetheyarethecheapestandmostaccessiblesourcesofprotein available to the population. Therefore, Senegal is very sensitive to changes in the abundance of thesespecies,whetherclimatechangedriven,becauseofcontinuedoverfishing,orasaresultofnaturalvariability.Thedeclineoffishavailabilityonthenationalmarkets,withtheassociatedriseinprices,iscurrentlyamajorconcernthatincreasesthissensitivity.

AccordingtoCRODT,whichpermanentlymonitorsex-vesselpricesatthemajorSenegalesecoastallandingsites,pricesofthetwosardinellaspecies(S. aurita and S. maderensis)thatconstitutethemajorityofthesmallpelagiccatch,havealmostdoubledfromaround30CFAFrancsperkilogramintheearly1990s,comparedtoadecadelater.Morerecently,ex-vesselpriceshaveincreasedinaspectacularwayforthesetwospecies:90CFAFrancsforS. maderensisand120CFAFrancsforS. aurita. It is important to mention that the ex-vessel prices considered here are lower than the market prices, for which data are notavailable.Thisemphasizesthatdespitetheirlowpurchasingpower,Senegalesehouseholdshavetospendmoreandmoreonfishforconsumption.Increasingdemandforfishinacontextofinsufficientlocal supply is a very worrying trend that is likely to be exacerbated by the potential negative impacts of climatechangeonsmallpelagicfisheries.

Role of small pelagic fisheries in employment SmallpelagicfisheriesinSenegalareextremelyimportantintermsofemployment.Accordingtothemostrecentartisanalfisheriescensus,thehighestaveragecrew(16.1permanentfishers/vessel)isnotedaboardartisanalpurseseinersthatspecificallytargetsmallpelagicfish.29 It has been estimated that 60000artisanalfishersoperateinSenegal,with20percent(about12000)beingengagedexclusivelyinsmallpelagicfisheries.Becausethecrewofsmallpelagicvesselsoftenrequirephysicalabilitymorethantechnicalskills,thisoccupationisalsosuitableforthosewhodidnotgrowupinthefisheriessectorandlackanyfisheriesexperience.Thus,small-scalefisheriesprovidesignificantemploymentopportunitiesfor the poorest, and least well educated, people of Senegal, including farmers for whom agriculture may nolongerprofitable(asectoralsothreatenedbyclimatechange).Inadditiontodirectemployment,pelagicfisheriesprovideanestimated40000jobsinthepost-harvestindustry.Therearebelievedtobeabout7000womenworkinginfishprocessingandtradingandtheirincometypicallyplaysacrucialroleinhouseholdbudgets.Despitethis,womenonlyconstituteabout5percentofthemembershipoffisheries-related management institutions nationally.

3.2 Adaptive capacity of small pelagic fisheries in Senegal Level of education of fisher communitiesAdaptivecapacitycompriseselementssuchas levelsofsocialandhumancapital,aswellas theappropriateness and effectiveness of governance structures.30 The assumption is that countries with high levels of economic and human development have the resources and institutions necessary to undertake plannedadaptation.Therefore,aspectsrelatedto,forexampleeducation,lifeexpectancy,sizeofeconomyand governance should be taken into account when assessing adaptive capacity.

28. Thiao&Laloë,2012;Thiaoet al., 2012.29. Thiao et al., 2006.30. Allisonet al.,2009.

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ThelevelofeducationisgenerallyverylowinSenegalesefishingcommunities.Thisisparticularlyevidentintheartisanalfisheriessubsectorwheresmallpelagicfisheriesconstituteaprincipalcomponent.The2006artisanalfisheriesframesurveyreportedthatonly34percentoffishershadexperiencedformaleducation.31Amongthosewhoattendedschool,lessthan13percentpursuedtheirstudiesbeyondprimaryschoollevel.Moreover,only5.5percentoffishershadattendedprofessionaltrainingtodevelopspecificskills,whichweremostlylinkedtotheFisheriesCodeandmanagement.Alackofinfrastructureisnotnecessarilythemainreasonforthefishers’loweducationlevels.Infact,inmostofthefishinglocalitiesalongtheSenegalesecoasttherearesufficientschoolsandthemajorsmallpelagiclandingsitesarelocatedinurbanareas(e.g.Saint-Louis,Dakar,MbourandJoal)wherearangeofeducationalopportunitiesareavailable.Therealityisthatfishers’childrenaregenerallyinvolvedfromaveryearlyageinfisheries-relatedactivities,followingintheirparents’footstepstobecomefishers.Giventhefactthatfishingrequiresapprenticeship that starts from an early age, children are occupied in learning about the sea, vessel handling andfishingtechniquesinsteadofinvestingtoomuchtimeinformaleducation,whichhastraditionallynotbeenmuchvaluedbyfishingcommunities.Byputtingchildrentoworkatanearlyagesothattheycan contribute to household income, parents are depriving their children of education. This reduces the children’s chance to develop knowledge and skills so that they might diversify their opportunities insideoroutsidethefishingsector.Consequently,theloweducationleveloffishersingeneral,andmorespecificallyforthosewhoareengagedinsmallpelagicfisheries,implieslowsectormobilityandwillsignificantlyreducetheircapacitytocopewithanyadditionalimpactsthatclimatechangemayhaveonfisheryproductivityorprofitability.

Health conditions within the fisheries sectorHealthdataspecifictothefisheriessectorarenotavailable.However,manyorganizations,suchastheILOandtheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren’sEmergencyFund(UNICEF)considerthattheearlyinvolvementofchildreninfisheriesactivitiesisharmfultotheirhealthygrowthandpsychologicaldevelopment.Whilethefishersdonotdifferentiatebetween“acceptablework”and“harmfulwork”,theissueofchildlabourisarealconcerninSenegalesefisheries.AccordingtoSenegalesemarinelaw,32 childrenbelow15yearsofagecannotbeemployedaboardfishingvessels.Howeverastudyconductedbythe CRODT for the ILO33showedthatchildrenunderthislegalminimumagecomprizeapproximatelyonethirdofthelabourforceincapturefisheries,boatbuildingandrepairservices,outboardrepairworkshops,fishprocessingandfishtrade.TheILOstudyreportedthattheaverageageofchildrenenteringthefishingsector was 10.6 years.

ExaminingtheworstformsofchildlabourinSenegalesemarinefisheries,theresultsfromthisstudyindicatedthatthelevelofparticipationofchildrenwasparticularlyhighaboardsmallpelagicfishingvessels(aboutonethirdofgillnetcrewsand15percentofpurseseinecrews).Children’sworkingconditionsarealsoparticularlyrigorousonthevessels.Forinstance,theyareengagedinnightfishingandalsoinbailingthevessels.Moreover,thelackofhygienethatgenerallycharacterizesthelivingandworkingconditionsoffishersisnotconducivetogoodhealth.Itiscommonpracticeforfisherstoretireveryearly,atbetween40to50yearsofagebecausetheybecomeunabletomeetthephysicaldemandsofthejob.Suchasituationseriously reduces their ability to cope with any change in economic circumstances, especially with the addednegativeimpactsonsmallpelagicfisheriesbroughtaboutbyclimatechange.

Availability of funds for climate change adaptationTheavailabilityoffundsisgenerallydependentonshort-andmedium-termprojectsthroughinternationaldonorsorbilateralpartners.Forexample,USD1.4millionwasgrantedtoSenegalthroughtheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR)partnershiptoimplementadisasterriskmanagementandclimatechangeadaptationproject(2012–2015).Theobjectivesincludestrengtheningthecapacityofthe Directorate for Civil Protection for supporting the disaster risk reduction platform and coordinating

31. Thiao et al., 2006.32. République du Sénégal, 2002.33. Thiao et al., 2002.

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earlywarning,preparednessandresponse.InthespecificcaseoftheSenegalesecoastalarea,existingfundsareusuallyallocatedtofightormitigatecatastrophiccoastalerosionimpacts.Therefore,insteadofinvestinginstrengtheningtheadaptationcapacityoffisheries,thepriorityistoprotectcoastalsettlementsandinfrastructure(houses,hotels,industries,harbours,etc.).Moreover,mostofthosefundsaregenerallyallocated to the Ministry of Environment while the budget of the Ministry of Fisheries remains very low despitetheconsiderableimportanceofthefisheriessectortothenationaleconomy.Atamicroeconomiclevel,populationsdependingonsmallpelagicfisheriesaregenerallyverypoor.Inacontextoffishscarcityand a rising cost of living, their overriding priority is to satisfy the basic needs of their households and consequentlytheyareunabletosignificantlyinvestinadaptationstrategiesandopportunities.Giventhese macro- and micro-economic considerations, the adaptive capacity of the Senegalese small pelagic fisheriesisveryweak.

Governance framework of the fisheries sector Effective governance is essential to support effective climate change adaptation.34Governanceincludespolitical stability, institutional frameworks, legislation and enforcement, regulations and adaptation strategies. With a democratic regime that is relatively successful, Senegal is one of the most politically stablecountriesinAfrica.FisheriesmanagementismainlytheresponsibilityoftheMinistryofFisheriesandMarineAffairs.Itactsthroughfourmajortechnicaldepartments:theDirectorateofMarineFisheries,the Directorate of Inland Fisheries, the Directorate for Protection and Surveillance of Fisheries, and theDirectorateofFishProcessingIndustries.TheMinistryissupportedscientificallybytheCRODT.However,allthesepublicinstitutionsarefacingoperationalconstraintsincludingalackoffinance,technicalstaffandequipment.Othernon-publicstakeholdersarealsoinvolvedinfisheriesgovernance,includingfisheriesorganizationsthatactatnationalandlocallevels.Unfortunately,theseorganizationsdonotalwayshaveaclearvisionregardingthechallengesfacingthefisheriessector,includingthoseassociatedwithclimatechange.Manyoftheseorganizationsarealsomotivatedbypoliticalagendas,reducingtheireffectiveness.Toaddressthisgapthegovernmenthasbeenputtinginplacelocalfisheriescouncilsforseveralyears.Severalnon-governmentalandinternationalorganizationsanddonorsareparticularlyactiveinthefisheriessectorand,incollaborationwiththegovernmentandprofessionalorganizations,havestartedincorporatingissuesrelatedtoclimatechangeintotheirprojectplans.Theseinterventionshave, however, not been well coordinated and have had limited success.

ThelegalframeworkthatcurrentlyregulatesSenegalesefisheriesisthe1998FisheriesCode.35 It clearly statesthatthemanagementoffishresourcesistheprerogativeoftheState,withaprincipalobjectiveofconserving these resources, and to ensure their sustainable use. The current Fisheries Code is, however, outdatedandhasnotsucceededinachievingthisobjective.Forinstance,theoverexploitationofmostofthefishstockshasoccurredasaresultofovercapacityinthefisheries.Thefisheriesresources,especiallysmallpelagicstocks,arestillcharacterizedbyanopenaccessregimefortheartisanalsubsector.RegulationsrelatedtoseasonalandspatialclosuresandminimumsizeatfirstcapturearenotadequatelydefinedintheCode.Theissueofclimatechangeimpactsonfisheriesisnotmentionedinthislaw.The2001EnvironmentCodetookintoaccountclimatechangebutdidnotstressthespecificcaseoffisheriesvulnerability.Consequently,toupdatethefisherieslegalframework,anewFisheriesCodeiscurrentlyunderdevelopment.Unfortunately,thisprocesshasbeenslowandremainsincompleteafterfiveyears.

Intermsofstrategicplanningforclimatechange,SenegalproducedaNationalAdaptationProgrammeofAction(NAPA)in2006,whichdetailsthecountry’spriorityadaptationresponses.However,thisProgrammeisverygeneric,focusingonreforestation,restorationofmangroves,stabilizationofsanddunes,physicalprotectionagainstbeacherosionandsalineintrusion,irrigationprojects,restorationofsoil fertility, water conservation methods, use of alternative crops and education.

34. Glantz,1992;Allisonet al.,2009;Fluharty,2011.35. République du Sénégal,1998.

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4. Socio-ecological vulnerability

4.1 Ecological vulnerability Ecosystem degradation as a constraint for ecological resilienceClimatechangeisaffectingsmallpelagicspeciesagainstthebackdropofthegeneralizeddegradationofthe Senegalese coastal ecosystems. Several combined natural and anthropogenic stresses are responsible forincreasingtheecologicalvulnerabilityofSenegalesesmallpelagicfisheries.Forinstance,overthepastfour decades, wetland areas and mangroves have been degraded and lost as a result natural factors, including droughtsthathavereducedprecipitationandincreasedthevariabilityofriverflow.Thisdegradationhasbeenexacerbatedbyhumanactivitiessuchasunsustainableagriculturalpractices,urbanization,industrializationandtheexploitationofnaturalresources(e.g.wood,salt,aquaticresources,etc.).Pollutionisalsoamajorconcerninmanycoastalareas,especiallyincoastaltownswithhighpopulationdensitiesand economic activities. This situation is particularly worrying in the cities of Saint-Louis, Mbour and Joal wheresmallpelagicfisheriesarealsoimportant.Eutrophicationandthedecayoforganicmattercreateanoxiaandsubsequentlyfishmortalitiesinareasaroundmajorcities,baysandports.Moreover,owingtoa lack of suitable disposal and management policies, industrial and domestic solid wastes lead to increased turbidityinthemajorriversandcoastalwaters.Thedegradationofcoastalecosystemspotentiallyreducesthe capacity of small pelagic species to cope with climate change impacts. It is negatively affecting primary production, spawning areas, nurseries and suitable ecological habitats in general. Multiple sources of coastalecosystemdegradationarethereforeamajorconstraintforecologicalresilience.

Recovery potential in a context of generalized overfishingOverfishingisakeynegativefactorthatcouldseriouslyunderminethecapacityofsmallpelagicspeciestorecoverfromclimatechangeimpacts.AlthoughsmallpelagicspeciesgeneratethemostimportantfisheriesproductioninSenegal,theyarefullyexploitedandevenoverexploited(FAO,2011).SubregionalstockassessmentsofsmallpelagicfishfromSenegaltoMoroccoindicatethatS. aurita is overexploited. For S. maderensis, despite a lack of data for modelling, current catches are considered to be unsustainable withariskofstockdepletion.Alltheotherspeciesareinafullyexploitedsituationandprecautionarymeasuresarerecommendedtomitigatetheharmfuleffectsofoverfishing.Thefishingpressureonsmallpelagicfishpopulations,whichisobviouslytoohigh,isalsocharacterizedbybadpracticessuchasfishingofjuvenilesandspawningindividuals.

4.2 Social vulnerability Overall socio-economic vulnerability of the fisheries sectorTacklingthedifferentattributesofvulnerability(exposure,sensitivityandadaptivecapacity),Alisonet al. (2009)conductedalargestudyacross132countriesandassessedthevulnerabilityofnationaleconomiestopotentialclimatechangeimpactsonfisheries.Thisstudyenabledthecalculationofavulnerabilityindexandaranking of all the countries according to their level of vulnerability. With a relative vulnerability index of 0.72, Senegalisrankedfifthamongthecountriesoftheworldwhosenationaleconomiesarethemostvulnerabletoclimatechange-drivenimpactsonfisheries.Thisstudydidnotstressthespecificcaseofsmallpelagicfisheries,butbecauseSenegalesesmallpelagicfisheriesaresociallyandeconomicallyveryimportantandecologicallyexposedtoclimatechangeandvariability,theyhavecertainlycontributedinasignificantwaytoraisingtheoverallvulnerabilityofthenationalfisheriessector.Thepelagicspeciesaccountforenormousbiomassbuttheyarealsoknownfortheirstrongsensitivitytoenvironmentalfluctuationsthatdeterminetheir abundance.36Therefore,significantlong-termclimatechangemighthaveconsiderableramificationsforfishavailabilityandfoodsecurity,jobcreationandincomegenerationinSenegal.

36. Sambe, 2012.

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Potential increase of exploitation-related conflictsAvailableprojectionsandscenariossuggestthatconsiderablelong-termclimatechangewithstrongseasonalvariability could occur in the Senegalese coastal areas in the future. In such a situation, Senegalese small pelagicfisherieswouldfacegreatdisturbance,withpotentiallyincreasedexploitation-relatedconflictsatlocal,nationalandsubregionalscales.Giventhesocio-economicimportanceofsmallpelagicfisheries,differentstakeholdersand,morespecifically,thefishersandthegovernmentwillbeinvolvedinsuchconflicts.Atlocal and national levels, owing to a reduction in the abundance of, and a spatial shift in the distribution ofthemajorsmallpelagicfishstocks,conflictswillariseoutoftheuseofincompatibleandconcurrentfishinggears;thecoexistenceandevenhighdensityofdifferentlocalandmigratingfishingcommunities;theintensificationoffishingactivitiesinverylimitedfishingareas;andtheuseofirresponsiblepracticesby stakeholders. In a context where climate change is likely to reduce the abundance and modify the spatial distributionofsmallpelagicstocks(e.g.northwardshifting),Senegalesefishersthatarehistoricallyknownto be very mobile along the national and subregional coast will have more incentives to migrate.37 Therefore, inanopenaccessregimewheretheseaandfisheriesresourcesareseenas“publicgoods”withoutanownerandclasheswithinfishingcommunitiesandbetweenfishersandgovernmentalofficersinchargeoffisheriesregulation, which are already common, may become more frequent and more violent.

ItisalsoimportanttonotethatoverthepastdecadeSenegalesesmallpelagicfisherieshavebecomeverydependentonMauritaniaandthishascreatedmorefrequentbilateralproblems.Giventhefactthatthenumberofsmallpelagicfishinglicenses(onlyabout300)providedannuallybyMauritaniaareinsufficienttosatisfySenegalesefishingcapacity,fisherstendtoillegallyenterMauritanianwaters.Consequently,arrestsandconfiscationofvesselsandgearsbytheMauritaniancoastguardarecommon.MoreandmoreSenegalesefisherswhotargetsmallpelagicspeciesarealsofindingwaystosettleinMauritania.Thissituationprovokesfrequentsocialandpoliticalconflictsthat,fortunately,havesofarbeenmoreorlesspeacefully resolved by these two neighbouring countries. It is important to note however, that Senegal andMauritaniaexperienceddeadlyclashesin1989owingtotheexploitationofthenaturalresourcesaround the Senegal River that divides the two countries.

5. SmallpelagicfisheriesmanagementimplicationsinSenegal

Fighting against the ecological threats and overfishingInacontextwheresmallpelagicfisherieswillfacethepotentiallynegativeeffectsofclimatechange,adequate management measures and strategies need to be urgently implemented at local, national and regionalscales.Thefirststepistoaddressallactivitiesthathavedamagingeffectsoncoastalecosystems.For example, polluting activities must be banned or better regulated so as to ensure the environmental integritythatisessentialforincreasedecologicalresilience.Anintegratedcoastalmanagementplanisrequiredtodevelopkeycoastalsectors(e.g.fisheries,tourism,etc.)whilereducingharmfulenvironmentalimpacts. Moreover, some ecologically sensitive areas, such as spawning areas and nurseries, should be protectedbyMPAsandseasonalclosures.Tacklingtheissueoffishingovercapacityandbadpracticesisalso necessary to strengthen the resilience of small pelagic species against climate change.

Althoughthereisarealpoliticalwilltoactontheseissues,manygapsandconstraintscontinuetounderminethe decision-making process and the implementation of concrete and effective actions. For instance, even iffiveMPAshavebeenofficiallycreatedinSenegalsinceNovember2004,thereisafundamentallackofsurveillanceandenforcement.SomeoftheseMPAs,especiallytheoneslocatedinJoal-FadjouthandSaint-Louisseemtobeecologicallysuitabletoprotectsensitivehabitatsofsmallpelagicspecies(e.g.S. aurita, S. maderensis and E. fimbrita)andreducefishingpressureonjuvenilesandspawningindividuals.However,inadditiontoalackofsurveillanceandenforcement,noneoftheexistingMPAsaremonitoredregularly so that their effectiveness may be assessed and improved. Seasonal closures pertain to a very

37. Binet, Failler & Thorpe, 2012.

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limitednumberofspecies,includingoctopus(Octopus vulgaris),shellfish(Cymbium pepo) and coastal shrimp(Penaeus notialis). The extension of such seasonal closures to other species, particularly small pelagic species, remain at the hypothetical38 stage because of the socio-economic implications for the fishingcommunitiesthatdependmostlyonmarineresourcesandhavenoalternativelivelihoods.Todatenoseasonalclosureshavebeenimplementedinthesmallpelagicfisheries.

Apriorityistoeradicateunsustainableovercapacityandbadfishingpractices,asrecommendedbytheFAOCodeofconductforresponsiblefisheries.39Forthatpurpose,fisheriesmanagementstrategiesshould strive towards the development of management plans that take into account the dynamic balance betweenfishingpressureandtheecologicalcarryingcapacityofsmallpelagicstocks.Suchamanagementsystem requires the establishment of catch limits and the termination of the open access regime that still characterizesSenegalesefisheries.However,theGovernmentofSenegalisrequiredtoovercomeserioussocio-economicandmanagerialconstraintsifitistoreducefishingpressure.Inrecentyears,ithastriedtoimplement some measures to reduce overcapacity, but these measures have met with limited success. For example,afishingpermitsystemwasestablishedin2006fortheartisanalfisherysubsector,asectorthathasalwaysbeendifficulttoregulate.40 The principle behind this initiative was to issue a limited number offishingpermitsperyear,takingintoaccountthestateofthemainstocks.Fishingpermitsforvesselsthattargetsmallpelagicfisharethemostexpensivebecauseofthelargesizeofthevesselsinvolvedandtheirconsiderablepotentialtoimpactthestocks.Thefishingpermitsystemwasinitiallyconsideredaboldmovetoregulatetheconsiderablefishingpressurethatisexertedonthestocks,butithasbeenineffectivebecauseofresistancefromthefishingcommunities,inspiteofthelegalsanctionstheyface.Withrespectto catch limitation, no concrete action has yet been taken to implement the management recommendations thathavebeenmadebydifferentFAO/CECAFworkinggroupsinrecentyears.Otherclassicmeasures,suchasmeshsizeandfishsizelimits,alsoneedtobeupdatedandenforced.InthecurrentFisheriesCode,41 fishsizelimitsaredefinedforsevensmallpelagicspecies(12cmforS. aurita, S. maderensis and Scomber japonicas;15cmforE. fimbriata, Decapterus rhonchus, Trachurus trecae and Trachurus trachurus). Themeshsizelimitsforthemainsmallpelagicfishinggearsare28mmforthepurseseine,60mmforthegillnetand50mmforthepelagictrawl.Unfortunately,alltheselimitsareineffectivebecauseoflowlevelsofcompliancebyfishersandlimitedcapacityformonitoring,controlandsurveillance.

Giventhedifferentmanagementexperiencesmentionedabove,itisapparentthatthemainchallengeinmanagingsmallpelagicfisheriesisrelatedtoalackofenforcement.Althoughupdatedandadaptedmanagementmeasures are necessary, the key issue is how to ensure they are effective. In such a situation, it is absolutely essentialtostrengthentheMCSsystembyfocusingmorespecificallyonthemainsmallpelagicfishingzonesandlandingsites.Becauseofpotentialsocialandpoliticalpressurefromthefishingcommunitiesandotherlobbygroups,theSenegalesegovernmentneedstoreaffirmitsauthorityandcommitmenttoenforcingthefisherieslawandregulations.Thegovernmentmayrealizebenefitsfromtheco-managementapproachcurrently being promoted in the country which is raising public awareness of the need for small pelagic fisheriestobesustainablymanaged.Inordertoimproveecologicalresilienceandmitigatepotentialclimatechangeimpacts,theavailablescientificknowledgeatnationalandinternationallevelsmustbeincorporatedintothenewFisheriesCodeandthesmallpelagicfisheriesmanagementplanthatiscurrentlybeingdeveloped.

Integrating the subregional dimension in the management strategies SmallpelagicfishpopulationsoffNorthwestAfricaaresharedbydifferentcountries.Therefore,beyondthelocal and national level, regional management measures and strategies are required to mitigate the negative impactsofclimatechangeonsmallpelagicfisheries.Statesthatsharetheseresourcesshouldfindthebestwaytoharmonizemanagementpoliciesandcombineeffortstoimplementsuitableadaptationstrategies.TheSub-RegionalFisheriesCommissioninWestAfricacouldplayanimportantroleinencouragingaharmonizedapproach.However,becauseMoroccoandSpain(CanaryIslands)arenotmembersofthis

38. Thiao et al., 2012.39. FAO,1995.40. Thiao et al., 2012.41. République du Sénégal,1998.

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Commission,itcouldbedifficulttofindsolutionsthatcovertheentiredistributionofpopulationsofsmallpelagicfish.Forthisreason,thisissuemightbetackledwiththeassistanceofFAOthroughtheCECAF.

Becausesmallpelagicfishstocksarecharacterizedbytime–spaceinstability,itisverydifficulttoestablishanequitablesystemtosharethetotalmaximumcatchrecommendbytheFAO/CECAFworkinggroupsbetweencountries.Strategiesatsubregionalscaleshouldfocusmoreonsomespecificconcreteactions.Forexample,inrecentyearstheCCLMEandtheEAF-Nansenprojectshavecombinedeffortstoassistthecountriesinbuildingthebasisofasubregionalmanagementinitiative–inadditiontotheSub-RegionalFisheriesCommissionprojectonsmallpelagicresources.TheseprojectsrelyonscientificinputsfromtheFAOWorkinggroupthathasbeeninplaceforseveralyears;theyneedtobemaintainedandstrengthened,even after they come to an end. Joint MCS activities also need to be promoted so as to facilitate the use of all available equipment and experience and the exchange of data and information about, for example, illegal,unregulatedandunreportedfishingacrossthedifferentEEZs.Thecountriesthatsharesmallpelagicfishstocksshouldalsoharmonizesomeoftheirfishingregulationsandmakesuretheyareenforced.Thiswouldincludemeshsizelimitationsandminimumfishsizes,whilecoordinatedseasonalclosuresthattakeintoaccountthespawningcyclesandmigrationtrajectoriesofsmallpelagicspeciesshouldbeinitiated.Suchaharmonizedapproachneedstofollowthenationalandsubregionalmanagementplansforsmallpelagicresourcesthatweredevelopedunderthesubregionalsmallpelagicfisheriesproject,butwhichareunfortunatelynotoperational.Moreover,itisimportanttoputinplaceanofficialsubregionalframeworkontheissueoffishingagreementsandlicensestoDWFNsthattargetsmallpelagicspeciesoffNorthwestAfrica(e.g.EuropeanUnion,RussiaandChina).

Building capacity for climate change adaptationTheimpactsofclimatechangeonsmallpelagicfishabundanceanddistributionmustbetakenintoconsideration in Senegalese management policies and legal frameworks. Moreover, owing to the uncertainties thatcharacterizeclimaticandecologicalsystems,andalackofdataandknowledge,aprecautionarymanagementapproachisnecessary.Climatechangerequiresfisheriesmanagerstomanageforresiliencein ecological and social systems.42Hence,managingsmallpelagicfisheriesinacontextofclimatechangerequires the building and strengthening of the capacity of national stakeholders. The staff of the Ministry ofFisheriesandMarineAffairs,scientistsandprofessionalorganizationsneedtobebettersensitizedandtrainedtobeabletoassessandmonitorclimatechangeimpactsandintegratethemintofisheriesmanagement policies and adaptation strategies.

Specificactionshavetobeundertakenforthecoastalcommunitieswhoselivelihoodsarestrictlydependentonsmallpelagicfisheries.Thebasicideahereistocreateafavourablecontextwherecoastalcommunitieshavetheopportunitytodiversifytheiractivitiesoutsidethefisherysector.Althoughthisideaiscurrentlyvery popular among decision-makers and other stakeholders involved in the sector, its implementation hasmetwithlimitedsuccess.Alackoffundsisobviouslyamajorconstraint.Inordertoovercomethisproblem,theWARFPistestinganalternativelivelihoodstofishingandpovertyreductionfund(aboutUSD200000)calledthe“ReconversionFund”.Itaimstoprovidefinancialsupporttofishersat12pilotlocalitieswhowanttoleavethefisherysectorandinvestelsewhere.Theachievementsofthisinitiativehave not yet been evaluated. In addition, the sustainability of this initiative after the completion of the projectistheprimaryconsideration.Moreover,inSenegal,theWARPFprojecttargetsmainlythecoastaldemersalfisheriesanditdoesnotproperlycoverthesmallpelagicfisheriessector.

Inthecaseofsmallpelagicfisheries,mostfisherscomefromrurallocalities.Itwouldthereforemakesense to develop agriculture and livestock opportunities for these communities, given that adequate and suitablelandisavailable.Anissuetoconsideristhatsomecoastalcommunitiesinvolvedinthesmallpelagicfisheries(e.g.Niominka,LebouandGuetNdarcommunities)aresotraditionallylinkedtotheaquatic resources that their alternative livelihoods options are very limited.43 In these cases a suitable adaptationstrategycouldbetodevelopaquacultureactivitiestocreatejobsandcontributetofishsupplyin the country. Building community capacity, including the skills of the youth, through targeted training willalsobeamajorenablingconditiontohelpthemtosucceedinnewbusinessinthelong-term.

42. Fluharty, 2011.43. Thiao, Dème, Bailleux, Failler & Sall, 2012.

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