case study : project risk management...case study : project risk management jeremy harrison head of...
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Case Study : Project Risk Management
Jeremy Harrison
Head of Project Risk & Value Management
The Headline
Case studyProject risk management
• Using scare resources effectively through
riskmanagement• Managing risk profile in a complex
environment• Delivering confidence to stakeholders and
customersJeremy HarrisonHead of Project Risk & Value
Management,NetworkRail
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The Possession
• The Problem
• The Response – the detail
• The Effect – the benefits.
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Possessions
• What are ‘possessions’?
– What do we want? – confidence in hand back to operation.
• Mini projects within the overall project with
Start and End points
• Worksites within possessions.
An example – possession complexity
TLP Core Area possession
TLP Other works
TLP Outer Areas possession
ATF cable works
Platform
electrical works
Harpenden
bridge works
Bi-diturnback West
HampsteadOLE works
Blackfriars
Bridge Slide
Fleet Sewer
Diversion
Farringdon
Jn
Manhole 4ATF prep works
BFR CTK ZFD
SPI
MOG ZBB
KTN WHPEPH STP
CRI HEN MIL ELS RDT SAC HPD LTN LUT LEA HLN FLT BDM
KGX FPK
BFR CTK ZFD
SPI
MOG ZBB
KTN WHPEPH STP
CRI HEN MIL ELS RDT SAC HPD LTN LUT LEA HLN FLT BDM
KGX FPK
St Albans
track slew
Luton OLE
works
KX possessionKings Cross
Platform Y commissioning
London Bridge Box Works (Maintenance
contracted to manage)
N229 Shard of Glass piling
works
N244 Gipsy Hill TP Hut prep
works
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Structure of the Process
• Worksites and hence possessions
booked months (years in advance)
• Worksites – simple risk assessment
– Risk Factor – 1 to 3
– Profile Factor – 1 to 3
– Impact Factor – 1 to 3.
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Possession Quantified Schedule Risk Assessment (QSRA)
• What is it in layman's terms?
– Modelling effect of uncertainty and risks on the deterministic plan
– The challenge
• ‘Everything should be made as simple as possible,
but no simpler’ Albert Einstein
• ‘1000 line plans’ into something that can be
modelled.
What was the job?
Tipton Level
Crossing
Replacement
Easter 2009
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The context
What is driving the schedule?
0120 - Jack the box (main push) 65%
0160 - Backfill stage 2 42%
0180 - Track ballast lower layer 24%
0190 - Ballast top layer and track laying 24%
0090 - Excvn Stage 3 & bottom up East of S&T 19%
0060 - Excavation stage 1 from West 19%
0140 - Bottom layer stone 13%
0080 - Excavation stage 2 13%
0210 - Tamp track 8%
0220 - Top up ballast etc (incl reinstate track circuit leads, H&S) 5%
0260 - Handback worksite 5%
0050 - Excavation stage 1 from East 4%
0010 - Take possession 3%
0290 - Risk - high winds/weather delays work 1%
Tipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressSchedule Sensitivity Index
Analysis
Simulation: Latin HypercubeIterations: 1000
Schedule Sensitivity Index
Values are displayed for:All tasks in the plan
Display settings
Normal tasks onlyShowing 14 highest tasks
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Delivering Confidence
Cum
ula
tive F
requency
Hits
0
29
58
87
116
145
Distribution (start of interval)
13/Apr/09 10:45 13/Apr/09 19:45 14/Apr/09 04:45 14/Apr/09 13:45
5% 13/Apr/09 15:45
10% 13/Apr/09 17:00
15% 13/Apr/09 17:45
20% 13/Apr/09 18:15
25% 13/Apr/09 19:00
30% 13/Apr/09 19:15
35% 13/Apr/09 19:45
40% 13/Apr/09 20:15
45% 13/Apr/09 20:45
50% 13/Apr/09 21:15
55% 13/Apr/09 21:30
60% 13/Apr/09 22:15
65% 13/Apr/09 22:30
70% 13/Apr/09 23:15
75% 13/Apr/09 23:45
80% 14/Apr/09 00:30
85% 14/Apr/09 01:30
90% 14/Apr/09 02:30
95% 14/Apr/09 04:00
100% 14/Apr/09 14:30Analysis
Simulation: Latin HypercubeIterations: 1000
Convergence
Plan Finish Date:Converged in 200 iterations(variation < 1% over 100 iterations)Total Plan Cost:Converged in 200 iterations(variation < 1% over 100 iterations)
Statistics
Minimum: 13/Apr/09 11:00Maximum: 14/Apr/09 14:30Mean: 13/Apr/09 21:15Max Hits: 158Std Deviation: 14.94
Selected Confidence90%: 14/Apr/09 02:30Deterministic Finish: 13/Apr/09 17:45Probability 15%
Tipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressEntire Plan : Finish Date
Network Rail
Delivering Confidence
Likelihood of completing the works
50% 80% 95%
Possession hand back Time
Tues 14th Apr 05:00
Tues 14th Apr 05:00
Tues 14th Apr 05:00
Modelled Completion Time
Mon 13th Apr 21:15
Tues 14th Apr 00:30
Tues 14th Apr 04:00
Project Float 7hrs 45mins 4hrs 30mins 1hr
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The QSRA
• Creating confidence
– 90% confidence as normal threshold
– The other 10% -
• Contingency planning for the works
• Contingency planning for the train service
– Using the QSRA to full advantage
• When do you need to react?
The QSRA Programme
ID DescriptionRemainingDuration Start Finish
XMAS 2009
XMAS 2009.4
XMAS 2009.4.0010
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0420
A5560
A5570
A5580
A5590
A5600
A5610
A5660
A5670
A5680
A5690
A5700
A5710
A5770
A5780
A5790
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0430
A5720
A5730
A5740
A5750
A5760
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0080
A5170
A5170: B
A5170:035
A5180
A5180: B
A5180:035
WK40-2100
WK40-2105
WK40-2105: B
WK40-2105:021
WK40-2175
WK40-2240
WK40-2355
WK40-3350
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0110
A5370
A5380
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0380
A1460
A2140
A2140: B
A2140:040
A2370
A3090
A3120
A5190
BF0005
BF1660
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0390
A1600
A5010
A5035
A5040
A5050
A5450
A5460
A5470
A5480
A5490
A5500
A5510
A5520
BF1640
BF1670
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0140
A5390
A5400
XMAS 2009.4.0010.3
WK40-6
WK40-6: B
WK40-6:015
WK40-6:018
WK40-6:019
WK40-6:022
WK40-6000
WK40-6010
WK40-7
XMAS 2009.4.0010.0120
Master Programme - Christmas 2009
Farringdon Integrated Programme
Possession Milestones & Key Events
HANDOVER MILESTONES
Mainline Works
N246 - Support Works Part 1 Complete
Start of CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works
CoLOR Works Part 1 Complete - Fleet Sewer Works
Start of N246 Support Works Part 2
CoLOR Works Part 2 Complete - Manhole 4 Construction
Start of N246 Support Works Part 3
N246 - Main Line Completion of Plain Lining for WSRL
WSRL - Start of Cable/Equipment Re-Instatement
0440 - CoLOR Float of 24hrs in main programme but exclude...
WSRL - Cable/Equipment Re-Instatement Complete
WSRL - Test Track Circuit in P'Way Area Complete
N246 - Support Works Part 3 Complete - Siding Reinstateme...
WSRL - Start of Wheels Free Correspondence Testing
WSRL - Wheels Free Correspondence Testing Complete
N246 - Start of Signal Documentation
Smithfield Sidings Work
WSRL - Start Recconection/Test Smithfields Sidings
WSRL - Recconection/Test Smithfields Sidings Complete
WSRL - Start Test & Correspond Track Circuits
WSRL - Test & Correspond Track Circuits Complete
N246 - Site Handback Checks
NR Possession & Handback - Main Line
Train Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)
Train Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)
RS: Class 73 loco failure
Train Movement - Train Departs (TBC)
Train Movement - Train Departs (TBC)
RS: Class 73 loco failure
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Setup Worksite/ Issue Permits
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (...
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (AC & DC)
RISK - Late Hand Over of Possession - 5% 0.25h 0.5h 0.5h
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Start of Possession (Poss R...
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Energise & Handback AC/DC
NR Possession Main Line TLP - End of Possession (Poss Re...
NR Possession Main Line TLP - Works Complete
N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding
N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding Com...
Start of N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding
WRSL Works - R North
Shorten Possession
Take Possession & Isolation
Take Possession & Isolation
Late possession and isolation for St Pancras Bi-Di
Start of Wheels Free Testing - R North
Sign Out Signalling
Sign Signalling Back Into Use - R North
COSS Briefings
Start of Possession
End of Possession - R North
WRSL Works - R South
R South Disconnection
Testing Documentation
Sign Smithfield Sidings Back Into Use
Handback Possession - R South
Start of Wheels Free Testing - R South
Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Main Line
Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Main Line
S&T Testing - Main Line
S&T Testing Completed- Main Line
Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Smithfield Sidings
Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Smithfield Sidings
S&T Testing - Smithfield Sidings
S&T Testing Completed - Smithfield Sidings
Sign-in Signalling - R South
End of Possession - R South
N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Line Dbl Jnc
Start of N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl ...
N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl Jnc Co...
CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works
Mobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)
Mobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)
RISK - RRV Breakdown - 20% 1h 2h 3h
RISK - Operator Illness - 1% 1h 2h 3h
RISK - Off track access blocked by others (Access point pending) - ...
RISK - Disruption by third Parties (NR track replacement etc) - 20% 3...
Start of CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works
CoLORWorks Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works Completed
Protect Existing Track & S&T
N246 Support Works Part 2 - Main Line Reinstatement
202.00h
201.75h
201.75h
190.25h
181.50h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
8.75h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
145.00h
0.25h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.75h
1.50h
1.50h
0.00h
0.00h
1.50h
0.00h
0.00h
6.00h
0.00h
0.00h
49.50h
1.00h
1.50h
1.50h
0.00h
0.00h
0.25h
0.50h
0.75h
0.00h
0.00h
196.75h
2.50h
1.00h
0.25h
0.50h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
29.50h
0.00h
0.00h
99.00h
6.00h
6.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
0.00h
6.00h
35.25h
24/12/2009 23:15
24/12/2009 23:30
24/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 08:45
29/12/2009 11:45
01/01/2010 15:45
30/12/2009 01:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 18:00
30/12/2009 22:00
01/01/2010 21:15
01/01/2010 21:15
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 05:45
24/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 01:45
30/12/2009 02:15
30/12/2009 02:15
25/12/2009 01:00
24/12/2009 23:30
24/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 01:00
*24/12/2009 23:30
30/12/2009 23:00
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 01:45
24/12/2009 23:30
27/12/2009 00:00
24/12/2009 23:30
24/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 11:00
25/12/2009 01:00
26/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 01:00
*24/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 01:45
30/12/2009 22:00
02/01/2010 06:15
30/12/2009 23:00
30/12/2009 18:00
29/12/2009 23:00
30/12/2009 12:00
01/01/2010 21:15
02/01/2010 03:45
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 08:45
25/12/2009 08:45
25/12/2009 08:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 08:45
25/12/2009 14:45
29/12/2009 11:45
02/01/2010 09:15
02/01/2010 09:15
02/01/2010 09:15
02/01/2010 06:00
01/01/2010 21:15
25/12/2009 07:45
29/12/2009 11:45
01/01/2010 15:45
30/12/2009 01:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 18:00
01/01/2010 21:15
30/12/2009 22:00
02/01/2010 06:00
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 05:45
31/12/2009 00:30
25/12/2009 02:00
25/12/2009 01:45
30/12/2009 02:15
30/12/2009 02:15
30/12/2009 02:15
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:00
31/12/2009 00:30
31/12/2009 00:30
30/12/2009 23:00
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 07:45
27/12/2009 01:00
27/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:00
25/12/2009 01:15
27/12/2009 00:00
25/12/2009 01:45
27/12/2009 01:00
02/01/2010 06:30
25/12/2009 04:15
30/12/2009 23:00
02/01/2010 06:30
30/12/2009 23:30
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 18:00
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 05:45
30/12/2009 23:00
30/12/2009 23:30
26/12/2009 13:15
26/12/2009 13:15
29/12/2009 11:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
25/12/2009 14:45
29/12/2009 11:45
25/12/2009 20:45
30/12/2009 23:00
MinimumDuration
MostLikely
MaximumDuration
0.50h
0.50h
0.50h
1.00h
0.25h
1.00h
1.00h
0.75h
0.25h
0.25h
0.25h
0.25h
2.00h
0.75h
0.25h
0.25h
5.00h
1.00h
1.00h
3.00h
3.00h
1.00h
1.00h
1.00h
0.75h
1.50h
0.50h
1.50h
1.00h
1.50h
0.50h
0.25h
0.50h
0.75h
2.50h
1.00h
0.25h
0.50h
6.00h
2.00h
2.00h
6.00h
6.00h
6.00h
1.50h
1.50h
0.75h
2.00h
0.50h
2.00h
1.00h
1.50h
0.50h
0.50h
0.75h
0.75h
3.00h
1.25h
0.25h
0.50h
8.00h
3.00h
3.00h
12.00h
12.00h
8.00h
25 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
26 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
27 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
28 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
29 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
30 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
31 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
1 Jan '20101 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
2 Jan '20101 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
5%
5%
5%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 08:45
29/12/2009 11:45
29/12/2009 11:45
01/01/2010 15:45
01/01/2010 15:45
30/12/2009 01:00
30/12/2009 01:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 18:00
01/01/2010 21:15
30/12/2009 18:00
30/12/2009 22:00
30/12/2009 22:00
01/01/2010 21:15
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 05:45
02/01/2010 05:45
25/12/2009 01:45
30/12/2009 02:15
*24/12/2009 23:30
31/12/2009 00:30
30/12/2009 23:00
25/12/2009 07:45
25/12/2009 01:45
25/12/2009 11:00
*24/12/2009 23:30
27/12/2009 01:00
30/12/2009 18:00
29/12/2009 23:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 12:00
30/12/2009 18:00
01/01/2010 21:15
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 03:45
02/01/2010 05:45
30/12/2009 23:00
30/12/2009 23:30
25/12/2009 07:45
26/12/2009 13:15
25/12/2009 08:45
29/12/2009 11:45
Master Programme - Christmas 2009 (Pre-mitigated)
Xmas 2009 Primavera Gantt
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Critical Review
• Robust process tested, challenged,
reliable and improving • (QSRA results data analysis)
• Confidence – where are we?
• Interdependences
• Learning
BS31100
• Governance and structure
– Are we doing what we say we are?
• Risk appetite
– What level of risk can we and are we taking?
• The risk management process
– Structured risk assessment process
• Risk response
– Do we have appropriate contingency processes in
place?
-
What have we learnt?
• Process vs Outcome for creating
confidence - THINKING
• Keep checking
• QSRA accuracy improving
• Quality of planning
• NEVER ASSUME ANY THING