CLIMATE CHAOS

AND

ENERGY

+20% in 2 Decades

• Since 1970 CO² emissions +70%Energy +145%Transport +120%Industry +65%

• Grams of CO² per passenger kilometreAir short haul 148/300car 106/150bus 93/130rail 36/100

• Options to improve train travel – increase capacity (double deck) – green fuel source

£15 billion for improving network capacity

Where should the effort be ?

renewable energy in the new millenniumAdverse Weather Conditions

Droughts & Crop Damage

Storm Damage Floods

Forest Fires

renewable energy in the new millennium

Climate Change Glacier retreat in the Himalayas

Climate ChangeLason ice sheet collapses

Muir Glacier, Alaska in 1941 Ice 200 ft thick. Since then retreated 12Miles by 2004, Barren banks now growing trees andVegetation.

renewable energy comes of age

THE “BOSS” AT NORTH POLE –Sea ice will be gone during the summer months in 5-10 years

renewable energy in the new millennium

Global Temperatures and Disasters+1.8 DEG IN 1900’S , +1.2 2020,+2.5 2050,+4.0 2080,+5.8 2100, NOW +2 DEG, CRITICAL AT +3 DEG THENIRREVERSIBLE.

Sea temperature rise 1860 to 2000

SAMPLES OVER 1 M YRSSHOW NORM 180/280 PPMNOW 380 , HEADING FOR650 PPM RISING

AT 3.1%PER YRIPCC 2007

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

• Increasing global air and ocean temperatures

• Rising global average sea level

• Reductions of snow and ice

IPCC 4th report Nov 2007

Sea level rise under warming is inevitable

Long time scales of thermal expansion & ice sheet response to warming imply that stabilisation of GHG concentrations at or above present levels will not stabilise sea level for many centuriesFigures from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

1.0-3.7m4.9-6.1°C670-7902060-2090

0.8-2.9m4.0-4.9°C570-6602050-2080

0.6-2.4m3.2-4.0°C485-5702020-2060

0.6-1.9m2.8-3.2°C440-4852010-2030

0.5-1.7m2.4-2.8°C400-4402000-2020

0.4-1.4m2.0-2.4°C350-4002000-2015

Sea level riseAverage temperature increase

CO² concentration PPM

Year

A 6m rise in sea levels is predicted with Iceland melt, this figure shows the effect, if the Antarctic melted there would be a further rise of 60m

Figures taken from Professor Chris Rapley, Antarctic Survey

Thames Barrier (opened in 1984) closes under threat from flood

Annual Thames Barrier Closures

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1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

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ASAS

1 calorie food needs 10 calorie of fossil1 pint Milk needs 1 pint oilHow sustainable are we?

ASPO the proof Price $135 @200508

OPEC says $200I say $500

China has 41 m cars , we have 41m , 600m / 60 m population

The world needs to find more oil to cope with this

6

4

2

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

6

4

2

15

10

5

15

10

5

China:Petroleum consumptionPetroleum output*

Mn

barre

ls /

day

Oil consumption per capita:JapanKoreaChina

Barr

els

/ yea

r

*Smoothed

Note: US consumes 26 barrels / year per capitaSource: BCA Research

Mn

barre

ls /

day

Barr

els

/ yea

r

Note the changes in ocpc ( oil consumption per capita ) when Japan went “industrial” ‘60 to ‘75 , and then Korea ‘87 to ‘97 , now watch for China still at the bottom of the graph !!

KLEINWORT BENSON

JAPAN KOREA

CHINA

Centralised Power Production

• Radcliff on Trent –– 400,000 homes– 6,000 MW of losses

Worse radiation than Sellafieldfrom Uranium

EU Renewable Energy Targets –share of electricity by 2010

Austria 78% (70%)Sweden 60% (50%)Latvia 49.3% (40%)Portugal 39% (38%)Slovenia 33.6% (25%)Finland 31.5% (28%)Slovakia 31% (18%)Spain 29.4% (20%0Denmark 29% (8%0Italy 25% (18%)France 21% (17%)Greece 20.1% (8%)Scotland 18%

Ireland 13.2% (5%)Germany 12.5% (4%)UK 10% (2%)Netherlands 9% (4%)Czech Rep. 8% (5%)Poland 7.5% (2%)Lithuania 7% (4%)Cyprus 6% (0%)Belgium 6% (2%)Luxembourg 5.7% (2%)Estonia 5.1% (0%)Malta 5% (0%)Hungary 3.6% (1%)

Current actual figures in brackets

UK – washout results!!UK says target of 20% by 2020 is ‘ambitious’, but present will only give 5%

THAT’S THE REALITY

Men argue, nature acts (Voltaire)

NOW FOR THE OPTIMISM

Embedded Generation

• A dwelling or building produces its own energy• Decentralisation – requires change in attitudes

and outlook• Architects must drive this process and design

sustainable energy into buildings

PPS 22 calls for 10% self generation and part L for 28% CO² saving on new build – but what about existing buildings?

Vision of Energy in Ten Years

NowUnsustainablefossil fuel economy

FutureSustainableenergy economy

TechnologyCommunity

EmpowermentInstitutional

Change

Leadership, school education, scientists, engineers and

politicians are all key to this

Woking Borough Council supply GREEN and BROWN ENERY to the ratepayers, through and ESCO (energy supply company), which pays the council a 15% dividend

Energy Strategy for London

• The Mayor of London has laid out the following targets for London by 2010– 20% CO² reduction– 14% of electricity from renewables– 10,000 PV roofs– 6 Large and 500 small wind turbines– Low carbon vehicle partnership– 20% of electricity from renewables in new

build sites

EU 2007

• 27 nation states• Almost 500 million citizens • 660 million tonnes GHG emissions in 2006• 10% total global emissions

EU Policy EU Policy Adopted March 2007Adopted March 2007-- by its 27 Member Statesby its 27 Member States

Mill

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es C

arbo

n em

issi

ons

P.A

.M

illio

n to

nnes

Car

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emis

sion

s P.

A.

0

600

1200

20202020 YearYear 20502000 2010 20402030

20% Cut20% Cut by En by En EffEff. 120 Mt . 120 Mt

Business as usual

Business as usual

20% Cut by 20% Cut by RenRen En. 120MtEn. 120Mt

12 CCS Projects say 10Mt12 CCS Projects say 10Mt

80% Cut80% Cut by 2050 500 Mt 500 Mt

BAHRAIN SHOWS US UP !

3 x 225 kw generate 11-15% of the two towers adding 3 % to the cost, face wind & sail like profiles ,make negative press at back = + 30 % yield…. plus extra yieldat hub height… first time at 160 mt (no data)

Natural History Museum1.8MW Power Electrical 3.0MW Heating & Cooling

Zoe Morgan marketing director co-op says ‘cost neutral’ generates 180 MWhrs a year

Hydrogen and China’s Energy Sustainable Development

Challenges confronting China’s energy systemHigh oil import dependency threatens supply security

Hydrogen and China’s Energy Sustainable Development

Challenges confronting China’s energy system

Pressure resulted from greenhouse gas emissionIn a global point of view, China’s per-capita carbon emission is still low. But when taken the large population into account, the whole amount ranks second.

Premier Zhu Rongji announced at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, that China has approved the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Reading, Berkshire, 2MW

SWAFFHAM, NORFOLK, two 1.5 mw SWAFFHAM, NORFOLK, two 1.5 mw WTWT’’ss next to next to SUPERMARKET and houses, 90% of 10,000 residents SUPERMARKET and houses, 90% of 10,000 residents now said yes to # 3 WT ! May 2004, NOW 3 MAY 2006, now said yes to # 3 WT ! May 2004, NOW 3 MAY 2006, 100% GREEN100% GREEN

NO NO ‘‘NIMBYNIMBY’’S HERE!S HERE!

ON SITE WIND

2 X 2 MW COST £4M POWER PRODUCTION= 8.0 GWhrs

DISPLACED COST @ £70 MWHRROC’S @ £40 “LEC’S @ £10 “CARBON CREDIT @ £ 10 “TOTAL = £ 130 “INCOME = £ 1,030,000 pa

Return On Capital = 26.2% (3.8 year pay back)

BUT COST OF DISPLACED POWER WILL INCREASE AT X % PER ANNUM , SAY 10%, THEREFORE ROC INCREASESBY £103,000 pa !!!

Other sites:- Ford Dagenham 3.5 mw, Nissan Sunderland 4.62 mw,Royal Docks Liverpool 3.6 mw, Corus Teeside 45 mw,Pirelli Carlisle 3 mw,Swaffham 2.8 mw,

Cost of the fuel (wind)

never goes up!!

Operational 06/06 126 farms 1693 MWUnder construction 22 farms 399 MWConsented 81 farms 2,510 MWIn planning 167 farms 10,984 MW26 % UK energy 2026

STOP PRESS7000 OFF SHORE2020 = 27% OF UKDEMAND (JOHN HUTTON)

Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2004

• EU 34,205MW• 48,600 MW’S• 70,000 MW’s World 05• 28% pa GROWTH RATE• 120,000 people employed $14 billion

sales

• UK reached first GW , took 14 years. • now reached 2nd GW 20 months later• Enough for 1.1 million homes

supplied in full• But compare with the rest of the

World • WE NEED TO DO A LOT MORE

Stern report:- cost of doing nothing Could be 20% of GDP

Sustainable Energy

Why should we bother?Does the world card?NO... BUT… WE DO!!

Because there is a $3 trillion market out there in providing

energy sustainably!!

Windsave B&QWind Turbine1 kw peak £1795.00 fitted

Solar TwinHot Water3 kw£3000 fitted

Air Dolphin1 to 3.6 kwFreestanding towerSupplies AC£5,000LACK OF FEEDIN eg GERMANY, ONTARIO TARRIFF( 49c)PREVENT UPTAKE

24 kw Thermomax evacuated tubes

My home collects about 90,000 litres of rainwater from the roof

97% of the earth’s water is seawater

The ‘Hydrogen Economy’• Standard view

– Energy storage is needed to balance varying supply with varying demand (even with nuclear)

Surplus Deficit

RESupply

ElectricalDemand

Time

Power Hydrogen

Storage

• Revised (holistic) view– H2 fuel production (by

electrolysis) for transport must be included

– Is also a load management technique for an RE supplied grid

Hydrogen Fuel Production (Electrolysis)

RESupply

Power

ElectricalDemand

Time

“one acre grassland = 320 Gallons ofBio Ethanol540% more energyThan used”US Nat Academy Sciences

Cost $45 a barrel ! landfill mining

Hydrogen: storing and using green energy

Hydrogen from bio-mass

Solar hydrogen generation through photosynthesis

Thermo-chemical conversion of bio-massBio-mass + Air + catalyst = CO + H2 + catalyst = Cx Hy + H2O

Direct conversion through algae or bacteria

GussingBiomasFT GTLEither ElectricityOr Crude Oil8 mw input2 mw electricity4.5 mw heat

Energy efficienciesof 81% biomas to Electricity AND heat

Energy efficienciesOf 60% biomass to Oil with reforming

Exciting Recent DevelopmentsSynthetic Oil Production (process raw CO² / H2

Grass, Straw, Forestry (any crop gasification, FT, GTC)

Algae + CO²

CO² from air + H2

Nuclear Hydrogen (thermo separation of H2O)

Renewable Hydrogen (wind + electrolysis)

Separation CO² from air, (membrane or centrifuge) can exchange membranes with air flowing past on one side and low pressure water vapour on the other (water boiled at ambient temperature, partially solar heated or heated by the compressor). CO² is drawn through to the water vapour side. The steam / CO² moisture is compressed and cooled until the CO² is a nearly pure stream

LOCAL INITIATIVES… SAMWORTH BROS…WALKERS MIDSHIRE

ENVIRON / GROUNDWORK UK WASTE RECOVERY

10,000 tons per annum of offal, £5m landfill cost

CONVERT TO FUEL OIL SELL FOR £20M

To make diesel, petrol, Jet A1, (carbon neutral)

Stops methane emission from landfill

Stops waste of landfill resource hole

PM speech 26th June 2008Ten fold increase in renewablesExploit the full potential of wasteRestriction on landfill of biomass160,000 new jobsSpeed up grid connection for windNew grid transmission to copeFeed in tariffReduce dependence on oil$3 trillion market by 2050100gms per kilometre cars by 2020Refit ol properties to low carbonPlanning process streamline, local benefit30% electricity renewable by 2020Remove delays from MoD, CAA, shippingEPSRC funding increase to £300 million Stop ‘business as usual’ thinking

A new way of thinking – starting today

China 2020, 900 million in cities

Dongtan to be carbon neutralWorlds first sustainable city

2040 population half a million

ARUP architects London

Ecological Footprint2.2 hectares per person

UK 10-12 hectares per person

Energy SourcesLarge scale wind farms photovoltaics

Integral waste treatment, anaerobic digesters to feed CHP plants

• Capture and purify H2O

• Green roofs on buildings

• Maximum height 6/8 stories

• Prevent heat island

• Not petrol or deisel engines

• Solar power water taxies

• Hydrogen powered busses

• Planned Walking

• First phase 2010 world Expo

Ken Livingstone said –‘Breathtaking we will do it in London as well!’

TOKAMAK

FUSION AS IN THE SUN

DEUTERIUM AND TRITIUM FUSION

3

HeMOON

‘D + T = He + neutron + energy’

ITER PROJECT

Professor Saffa B RiffatProfessor Saffa B Riffat

Professor Tony MarmontProfessor Tony Marmont

U S D

SinoSino--UK UK AcadamyAcadamy of sustainable citiesof sustainable cities

Nottingham University , University CollegeNottingham University , University College

Stop press . £ 1,000 million ETI grant , research

Some quotes from Amory Some quotes from Amory LovinsLovins and Buckminster Fullerand Buckminster Fuller

There isnThere isn’’t any energy crisis its simply a crisis of ignorancet any energy crisis its simply a crisis of ignorance

Best designs are taken from nature which has been refining for 3Best designs are taken from nature which has been refining for 3.8 .8 billion years, all faulty products were recalled by the manufacbillion years, all faulty products were recalled by the manufacturerturer

Invention is the sudden cessation of stupidityInvention is the sudden cessation of stupidity

Solar powered air conditioning, huge demand world wide Solar powered air conditioning, huge demand world wide

Trees as producers of water or pumps, copy natures designs intoTrees as producers of water or pumps, copy natures designs intoengineering practiceengineering practice

As we go into bat against nature , remember she owns the stadiumAs we go into bat against nature , remember she owns the stadium and and she has the last bat !she has the last bat !

It started millions of year ago…

By 1930 when I was born, there were 2.2 billion

Before there will be 7.7 billion of us

And now…

Our biomass is 100 times heavier than any animal that has ever existed…!!

“even a mass extinction “

“THE EARTH WILL SURVIVE WITHOUT HUMANS”

British Zoological SocySay 25 -33% of ALL speciesHave already died out and Now 1% a year is dying ,the great extinction is underway

“““50,000 SPECIES A YEAR 50,000 SPECIES A YEAR 50,000 SPECIES A YEAR DYING OUT DYING OUT DYING OUT ……….UN .UN .UN ”””

SOON GETS COLD

HEAT LOSS IN CONVENTIONAL HOUSE

winter

summerHEAT GAIN IN CONVENTIONAL HOUSE

SOON GETS HOT

No heating or cooling requiredMinimum spend on renewable technologies

No heat loss or heat gain in TRIPLE INSULATED HOUSE

STABLE TEMEPERATURE ALLYEAR

The Fourth Revolution

The first revolution was the change from hunter gatherer to farming and land management.

The second revolution was the industrial revolution, 10,000 yearlater and was the change from individual manufacture to mass production techniques.

The third revolution was the ‘dot comm’ revolution 200 years later in the computer/internet revolution, the large corporations did not want to know it at first, now you can’t find a company without a website.

The fourth revolution is now under way, only 20 years later, at first the large corporations did not want to know or be associated with it, now you can’t find a company not rightly or wrongly proclaiming its green products.

It is unstoppable nowTony Marmont - June 2008

SOLAR POWERIn half and hour

the Earthreceives enough energy from the sun

to powerall the activities of mankind

FOR A WHOLE YEAR

MAKE A CHANGEbuy green

electricity athome and at work

Treat the earth well,It was not given to usby our parents -it was loaned to usby our children.