• CCaR Project Background• IPCC Framework for CCA DRM • Approach to Urban Resilience• Urban Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity

Indicators• Metro Manila Profile• Designing Evidence-based Decision Support

Systems• Building a mainstreaming toolkit

• CCaR - Coastal Cities at Risk : Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities 2011-2015

• Funded under the International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change or IRIACC by IDRC and the Canadian Tri-Councils

• Gordon McBean (UWO) and Anond Snidvongs (Chula, GISTDA)

• Systems dynamics approach to urban risk reduction; develop an original city resilience simulator tool (Simonovic)

• Vancouver, Lagos, Bangkok and Metro Manila• Atmospheric physicists, coastal and marine geologists,

epidemiologists , sociologists, geomatics specialists , engineers, planners, science-policy communications experts

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and

Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

• Risk as the compounding effect of Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability

• Resilience as the ability of complex systems to respond and recover in space and over time

• Inter- and trans-disciplinary investigations and validation of physical, socio-economic, health, organizational and economic indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity

• Building evidence-based decision support systems using climate modeling (downscaling), remote sensing and geographic information systems and statistical analysis

• Designing the Risk Simulation tool • Building a toolkit for mainstreaming

• Economic – Contribution to NCR GDP, CCA-DRR related Infrastructure Investment plans and Projects

• Social – Population, Poverty Incidence, Age, Gender, School Enrollment, Literacy

• Health – Number of Hospitals and Barangay Health Centers, Physicians and beds per 10,000 inhabitants, Number Persons with Access to clean water, morbidity and mortality of waterborne and tropical diseases (dengue, malaria and TB), Nutrition, Life Expectancy, DALYs

• Governance – Evidence-based CCA-DRR Decision-Making linkages between National-Metro-City, Local CCA-DRR planning and decision-making, environmental quality and land use

Adapted from the World Risk Report 2012

• 600 sq. km.• 12 Million people in 16 cities and 1 Municipality• Quezon City has the highest population with 2.7M

people in 166 sq km• Manila has the highest population density with 1.6M in

38.5 sq km • NCR contributed 35.7 percent to Philippines GDP in

2011(NSCB)• All are 1st class cities , except Navotas which is 2nd class

and Manila and Quezon City which are in a special class• Port Area Manila had the highest poverty incidence as

of 2009

A

• From the 1960s to the 2000s there has been an increase in days with heavy rainfall

• Overall rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclones is increasing

• Increases in rainfall are due to Tropical Storms and Tropical Depressions rather than Typhoons

• Initial scenarios show a potential increase in rainfall in the monsoon season

• Missing and constricted rivers• Ground subsidence• Land use, densification• Industrial and Commercial Development• Informal Settlements

Potential changes in rainy season rainfall due to GW:

~5-20%

• 5-20% increase in rainfall in north-western regions

• Increase occurs at peak of monsoon season

• Increase is due to more frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall

Projected Rainfall Change 2020s

Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan

Missing Rivers

Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan

Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan

CHOKE POINTS IN PASIG RIVER

Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando P. Siringan

Legend

MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY

BUILT-UP 1972

BUILT-UP 1979

BUILT-UP 1989

BUILT-UP 1999

BUILT-UP 2009

1972 2009

1979 2009

1972

1979 1989 1999 2009

Areas of Concentration

1972 1979 1989 1999 2009

San Juan QCMajority can be seen in the Western fringes of Metro Manila

Some are in Pasig and Taguig

ValenzuelaValenzuela-QC

Mandaluyong

South Caloocan-Navotas

Pasig-Mandaluyong

Pasig-Marikina

Makati Pasig Pasay Taguig

Taguig Parañaque Taguig Muntinlupa

Parañaque Muntinlupa Parañaque

Marikina Taguig Las Piñas

1997

2000

2010

North Caloocan

QC

Cainta-Taytay

NavotasMalabonSouth Caloocan

North Caloocan

QC

Cainta-Taytay

North Caloocan

QC

Cainta-Taytay

NavotasMalabonSouth Caloocan

Manila Manila Manila

NavotasMalabonSouth Caloocan

Makati-Taguig

METRO MANILA RISK INDEX ?

DR. G.T. Narisma

• Dr. Emma Porio• Dr. Gemma Narisma• Dr. Celine Vicente• Dr. Kendra Gotangco• Dr Fernando Siringan• Dr. Posa Perez• FORIN Team• Jessica Bercilla• Julie Dado• Emil Gozo,Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz del

Castillo, JoEd Perez• Raul Dayawon, Patricia Sanchez

• UNESCO• ChristianAid UK• START • IRDR• ICSU • NCDR• JAXA