cd equisearch pvt ltd… · 2018. 8. 28. · beta 0.9 daily volume nse (avg. monthly) 497420 p/bv...
TRANSCRIPT
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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Aug 27, 2018
Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance
Skipper Ltd
No. of shares (m) 102.7 Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 1394/198.7
Current price (Rs/$) 136/1.9
Price target (Rs/$)
184/2.6
52 W H/L (Rs.) 293/110
Book Value (Rs/$) 61/0.9
Beta 0.9
Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 497420
P/BV (FY19e/20e) 2.0/1.7
EV/EBITDA (FY19e/20e) 6.5/5.4
P/E (FY19e/20e) 13.0/9.6
EPS growth (FY18/19e/20e) -4.9/-9.9/35.9
OPM (FY18/19e/20e) 14.6/12.0/12.3
ROE (FY18/19e/20e) 21.0/16.2/19.0
ROCE(FY18/19e/20e) 16.4/14.4/16.3
D/E ratio (FY18/19e/20e) 0.8/0.7/0.6
BSE Code 538562
NSE Code SKIPPER
Bloomberg SKIPPER IN
Reuters SKIP.BO
Shareholding pattern %
Promoters 70.2
MFs / Banks / FIs/Others 11.1
FPIs 6.3
Govt. Holding 0.0
Public & Others 12.4
Total 100.0
As on Jun 30, 2018
Recommendation
BUY
Analyst
KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043
E- mail: [email protected]
(Figures in Rs crs)
FY16
FY17 FY18
FY19e FY20e
Income from operations 1506.22 1664.60 2073.12 2407.52 2822.58
Other Income 5.17 3.16 2.19 2.31 2.44
EBITDA (other income included) 232.23 275.36 304.74 291.06 350.11
Profit after EO 95.40 124.27 118.53 106.85 145.24
EPS (Rs) 9.32 12.15 11.55 10.41 14.15
EPS growth (%) 6.7 30.3 -4.9 -9.9 35.9
Company Brief
Skipper is one of the India's leading producers of power T&D structures and
also deals in polymer pipes & fittings. It currently has an installed capacity
of 265000 mtpa for engineering products and 51000 mtpa for polymer
products.
Highlights
� To revive its polymer business, Skipper has hired Vector Consultancy to
implement structural changes such as supply chain restructuring,
retailer incentives and margin overhaul through roll out of The Theory
of Constraints (TOC). Whereupon EBITDA margin (without forex)
contracted perceptibly in Q1 from 9.2% in Q1FY18 to a meager 1.2%
now, little in sync with 46% growth in revenues; forex unadjusted the
segment posted a loss of Rs 0.75 crs from a profit of Rs 3.09 crs in the
same period a year ago.
� For engineering products business, much of its volume driven revenue
growth of 20.2% failed to prevent margin erosion for the segment
posted 8.5% drop in EBIT not least due to MTM loss on forward cover
for exports. However, adjusted for forex, EBITDA margin rose to 11.8%
from 10.1% in the same period a year ago. Rising share of non T&D
products such as telecom towers, railway and solar structures also
buttressed volume off take. Overall engineering business margin
suffered not least due to higher incidence of fixed price T&D contracts
executed during the quarter.
� Interest cost also surged by some 62% in Q1 (yoy) and 14.5% (q-oq)
largely due to higher working capital requirement on account of
lengthening debtor collection period and inventory built up to support
future supply commitments. PBT as a result dived 74.2% to Rs 6.38 crs
and PAT collapsed to Rs 4.5 crs from Rs 15.98 crs in the same period a
year ago.
� The stock currently trades at 13.0x FY19e EPS of Rs 10.41 and 9.6x FY20e
EPS of Rs 14.15. Nothing could prevent margin stress in polymer
business unless dealer margins are rationalized for volumes continue to
remain strong. Engineering business margins too have come off from
record measures over the last few years. Yet further deterioration of
margin bears little chance. With revival in polymers business sometime
by next fiscal, earnings would vigorously revive. On balance, we
recommend buying the stock with revised target of Rs 184 (previous
target: Rs 262) based on 13x FY20e earnings (forward peg: 1.2) over a
period of 9-12 months.
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Outlook & Recommendation
Order inflows
Reinforced by flurry of domestic orders (read: non -PGCIL), Skipper's engineering order inflows leapt to Rs 1900 crs last
fiscal, yet barely enough to nudge total order book tally (Rs 2627 crs Vs Rs 2589 crs), which has only scantily risen in last few
years (see chart). Thence, order book shares of both PGCIL and exports not indistinctly dived to the lowest in several years -
PGCIL's down to 44% from an average of 50% in preceding three years , thus little cushioning growing sclerosis in order
book. After averaging some Rs 500 crs (quarterly) in FY18, engineering business order inflows flutteringly plunged to Rs 225
crs in Q1, invoking not little queasiness for PGCIL ordering is facing not small distress. Yet order inflows not only from
newer regions in Americas like Paraguay, Panama but also for novel products like tubular telecom towers have filled Q1's
order book.
Capex
Nearly unceasing demand for transmission products over the years has goaded Skipper to more than double its engineering
segment capacity over the last four years. After adding some 35000 mt last fiscal, plans are on undertaken to add 35000 mt
more this fiscal (though in phases) with investments of Rs 30-40 crs. Volume growth in excess of 10% over the last couple of
years has barely helped capacity utilization to wither for Skipper posted utilization of some 90% (probably excluding new
capacities) in last two years. In no smallish feat, Skipper's 30000 mt Guwahati plant would now bid for transmission projects
of PGCIL in North East region after the recently approval for supply of galvanized tower structures.
Financials & Valuation
Burgeoning demand for electricity has prodded India to relentlessly expand capacities of both generation and transmission &
distribution. According to industry reports India reported 5.3% growth in generation capacity, ~6% growth in transmission
lines and ~12% rise in substation capacity last fiscal. Demand for power transmission projects would remain little stymied
thanks to GOI's entrenched focus on last mile connectivity with schemes like Saubhagya, IPDS and DUGJY. Radical and path
breaking measures such as migration to higher transmission voltages of up to 1,200 kV, high capacity power transmission
corridors (HCPTCs)and new technologies for bulk power transmission are being mulled to enhance energy efficiency. By
some estimates, high capacity transmission corridors comprising 765 kV AC and ±800 kV 6000 MW HVDC system along
with 400 kV AC and ±500 kV/600 kV have been planned to facilitate transfer of power from remotely located generation
complexes to bulk load centres.
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Yet pernicious execution issues does not fail to invade, most notably right of way, land acquisition, environment & forest
clearances, etc, which little lessen time & cost overruns and mobilization issues for EPC companies. The GOI projects an addition
of over 1,00,000 ckm of transmission lines and over 2,90,000 MVA of transformation capacity between 2017-2022, precipitating
investments of Rs 2.6 lakh crs. Skipper barely intends to miss rising T&D opportunities in North-East India for which GOI has
allocated Rs 100bn.
Electricity Demand by Region (TWh)
Source: World Energy Outlook 2016, International Energy Agency
Notwithstanding no mild setbacks to piping demand from demonetization & RERA, GOI's ambitious programs like Swatch
Bharat Abhiyan, AMRUT and Smart Cities Mission have enliven demand for piping products. Cost of financing would scarcely
remain elevated and funding hardly an issue for property developers post award of infrastructure status to affordable housing.
Organized sector - 60% for PVC pipes by some estimate and 80% for CPVC segment - would no longer remain thwarted post
implementation of GST. Little to count perceptible advantages of PVC/CPVC pipes over GI pipes - longer life and higher
strength - which has invigorated its demand from industry.
To tap no miniscule opportunities in micro irrigation in India, Skipper tied up with Metzerplas, a leading global player, to
manufacture and implement drip irrigation systems through a 50% partnership interest in the LLP. Higher allocations to
Government of India's far schemes like PMKSY prodded this agreement with this Israeli manufacturer. To burnish its
engineering segment, new products like solar structures (ground based module mounting structures; roof top mounting
structures; seasonal tilt structures) and railway electrification centered EPC and railway structures were rolled out last fiscal.
Blighted by MTM loss on fx derivatives, earnings withered last quarter. Yet steady engineering business volume growth
(expected at mid -teens for the next two years) coupled with steady margins (though not with positive bias) would cushion
earning setbacks from restructuring of polymer business. Its North American markets for supply of power transmission towers
and poles would now revive with clearance of Canadian Welding Bureau (CWB) audit recently. Though Indian Railways
approval has hastened its plan to manufacture and supply various types of overhead wiring support structures like portals,
masts, beams, gantries, and substation & customized steel structures, its impact now would be miniscule at best.
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The stock currently trades at 13.0x FY19e EPS of Rs 10.41 and 9.6x FY20e EPS of Rs 14.15. Revival in earnings would await barely
inefficacious restructuring of polymers business (EBIT margin estimate awfully trimmed to 1% for FY19 from 9% earlier) and
stabilization of engineering products margin. Growing uncertainties in polymer business has prompted a cut in current year
earnings by a third. Yet strong market share in domestic market of transmission towers coupled with recent inroads in to newer
segments of railway electrification, solar structures and telecom towers would rarely suppress order inflows. Stress in return on
capital would be restricted by a buoyant recovery in earnings next fiscal (though on a small base). Weighing odds, we maintain our
buy rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 184 (previous target: Rs 262) based on 13x FY20e earnings (forward peg: 1.2) over a
period of 9-12 months. For more info, refer to our September report.
Cross Sectional Analysis
Company Equity* CMP (Rs)
Market cap*
Income from ops* Profit*
OPM (%)
NPM (%)
Int. Cov.
ROE (%)
Mkt cap / sales P/BV P/E
Skipper 10.3 136 1394 2154 107 13.8 5.0 2.8 18.6 0.6 2.2 13.0
KEC 51.42 316 8119 10306 485 11.0 4.7 3.2 30.2 0.8 4.5 16.7
Kalpataru 30.69 369 5667 5897 333 11.0 5.6 5.7 12.5 1.0 2.0 17.0
*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis
Book value adjusted for goodwill and revaluation reserves where applicable
Little stymied by spurt of both domestic and international orders, KPTL's order inflows surged by over 51% last fiscal with the T&D
business recording some sizeable orders - Rs 1092 crs for substations and transmission line in West Africa; transmission line orders
from Afghanistan, Bangladesh & Nepal worth Rs 985 crs; transmission line turnkey project for Tamil Nadu Transmission
Corporation for Rs 603 crs; orders for transmission line construction, augmentation and supply in overseas markets for Rs 545 crs.
Unflinching focus on non T&D business has helped secure pipeline and railways orders with its cumulative order book share rising
to 32% from just 16% in FY17. Last fiscal it strengthened its overseas presence by bagging orders not only from established regions
such as Botswana, Sierra Leone, Thailand and Afghanistan but also from newer territories like Columbia, Mauritania and Ivory
Coast. Yet T&D overseas segment order book share pummeled to 40% from 52% a year ago.
Its most recent orders include building transmission line and substation in Tajikistan and India totaling Rs. 346 crs; design, supply,
erection, testing & commissioning for railway electrification, signaling and associated civil works from RVNL for Rs.185 crs (in a
consortium); laying of pipeline & associated works of Rs. 151 crs from Andhra Pradesh Gas Distribution Corporation; construction of
railway infrastructure from Bangladesh Railways (in consortium) wherein KPTL’s share is Rs. 553 crs.
Galvanized by record order inflows for building Indian railway infrastructure and substantial headways in T&D business in Brazil
and SAARC regions, KEC's order book surged by some 22% in FY18, marking discernible gain its railway business order inflow
share (26% Vs 12% in FY17). As a result, its order book also surged by some 37% in FY18 with the ever powerful transmission
business (including SAE) corner bulk of the pie. Some of the new orders in FY19 include turnkey order for strengthening of
transmission Systems in Bihar from Bihar Grid Company Limited (BGCL); turnkey order for 132 kV D/C overhead transmission line
at Bangladesh; overhead electrification works and associated civil works aggregating Rs. 928 crore across India; 400 kV GIS
substation in North Eastern India from PGCIL; 138 kV Transmission Line and associated substation in Nicaragua; orders for various
400 kV Transmission Lines in Dubai.
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Financials
Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs Q1FY19 Q1FY18 % chg. FY18 FY17 % chg.
Revenue from Operations 478.70 398.83 20.0 2073.72 1664.60 24.6
Other Income 0.32 0.75 -56.9 2.19 3.16 -30.6
Total Income 479.02 399.58 19.9 2075.91 1667.76 24.5
Total Expenditure 433.72 347.22 24.9 1771.17 1392.40 27.2
EBIDTA (other income incl.) 45.30 52.36 -13.5 304.74 275.36 10.7
Interest 27.40 16.86 62.6 78.45 67.08 16.9
Depreciation 11.52 10.75 7.2 45.91 31.56 45.5
PBT 6.38 24.76 -74.2 180.39 176.72 2.1
Tax 1.88 8.78 -78.6 62.63 52.51 19.3
Net Profit 4.50 15.98 -71.8 117.76 124.22 -5.2
Extraordinary Item - - - -0.76 -0.05 1473.5
Adjusted Net Profit 4.50 15.98 -71.8 118.53 124.27 -4.6 EPS 0.44 1.56 -71.9 11.55 12.15 -4.9
Segment results Figures in Rs crs
Q1FY19 Q1FY18 % chg. FY18 FY17 % chg.
Segment Revenue
Engineering Products 404.09 365.14 10.7 1807.19 1503.38 20.2
Polymer Products 56.09 43.30 29.5 214.89 213.24 0.8
Infrastructure Products 18.52 24.28 -23.7 85.54 80.55 6.2
Total* 478.70 432.72* 10.6 2107.62* 1797.17* 17.3
Segment EBIT
Engineering Products 40.19 43.95 -8.5 264.79 233.56 13.4
Polymer Products -0.75 3.09 -124.1 15.09 16.58 -9.0
Infrastructure Products 2.38 2.95 -19.2 10.81 11.44 -5.5
Total 41.83 49.98 -16.3 290.69 261.58 11.1
Interest 27.40 16.86 62.6 78.45 67.08 16.9
Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 8.05 8.37 -3.8 31.85 17.78 79.2
PBT 6.38 24.76 -74.2 180.39 176.72 2.1 *include excise duty
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Income Statement Figures in Rs crs FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Revenue from Operations 1506.22 1664.60 2073.72 2407.52 2822.58
Growth (%) 14.7 10.5 24.6 16.1 17.2
Other Income 5.17 3.16 2.19 2.31 2.44
Total Income 1511.39 1667.76 2075.91 2409.83 2825.02
Total Expenditure 1279.16 1392.40 1771.17 2118.78 2474.90
EBIDTA (other income incl.) 232.23 275.36 304.74 291.06 350.11
Interest 64.82 67.08 78.45 89.13 92.88
EBDT 167.41 208.28 226.30 201.93 257.24
Depreciation 24.12 31.56 45.91 47.08 49.74
Tax 48.17 52.51 62.63 48.00 62.25
Net Profit 95.13 124.22 117.76 106.85 145.24
Extraordinary Item -0.27 -0.05 -0.76 0.00 0.00
Adjusted Net Profit 95.40 124.27 118.53 106.85 145.24
EPS* (Rs) 9.32 12.15 11.55 10.41 14.15
Segment results Figures in Rs crs
FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Segment Revenue
Engineering Products 1503.38 1807.19 2035.33 2374.787
Polymer Products 213.24 214.89 284.95 356.20
Infrastructure Products 80.55 85.54 87.25 91.6
Total 1797.17 2107.62 2407.52 2822.58
Segment EBIT
Engineering Products 233.56 264.79 264.59 314.66
Polymer Products 16.58 15.09 2.85 14.25
Infrastructure Products 11.44 10.81 11.34 12.37
Total 261.58 290.69 278.78 341.27
Interest 67.08 78.45 89.13 92.88
Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 17.78 31.85 34.80 40.90
PBT 176.72 180.39 154.85 207.49
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Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 10.23 10.23 10.26 10.27 10.27
Reserves 412.29 521.89 627.02 714.32 839.15
Total Shareholders Funds 422.52 532.12 637.27 724.59 849.41
Long term debt 197.84 175.37 166.66 148.46 135.41
Total Liabilities 620.36 707.49 803.94 873.05 984.83
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 518.20 628.52 694.82 734.89 767.89
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 100.35 131.68 173.95 221.02 270.77
Net Block 417.84 496.85 520.87 513.87 497.13
Capital Work in Progress 39.95 14.36 1.58 - -
Investments - - - - -
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventory 249.99 368.18 562.27 646.61 743.61
Sundry Debtors 371.73 372.20 516.44 601.88 705.65
Cash and Bank 49.80 24.94 17.58 23.85 25.41
Loans & Adv. & others 97.33 97.91 120.98 132.88 145.26
Total CA & LA 768.84 863.23 1217.27 1405.22 1619.92
Current Liabilities 558.07 617.79 863.18 984.68 1075.94
Provisions 2.08 0.47 17.56 14.47 18.03
Total Current Liabilities 560.15 618.26 880.74 999.15 1093.97
Net Current Assets 208.69 244.97 336.53 406.07 525.95
Net Deferred Tax -47.50 -62.56 -53.85 -44.50 -35.13
Other Assets (Net Of Liabilities) 1.38 13.88 -1.18 -2.39 -3.12
Total Assets 620.36 707.49 803.94 873.05 984.83
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Key Financial Ratios
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Growth Ratios (%)
Revenue 14.7 10.5 24.6 16.1 17.2
EBIDTA (other income included) 1.4 18.4 11.1 -4.9 20.3
Net Profit 6.7 30.3 -4.6 -9.9 35.9
EPS 6.7 30.3 -4.9 -9.9 35.9
Margins (%)
Operating Profit Margin 15.1 16.4 14.6 12.0 12.3
Gross Profit Margin 11.1 12.5 11.0 8.4 9.1
Net Profit Margin 6.3 7.5 5.7 4.4 5.1
Return (%)
ROCE 17.8 18.8 16.4 14.4 16.3
ROE 27.1 27.1 21.0 16.2 19.0
Valuations
Market Cap / Sales 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5
EV/EBIDTA 7.8 8.4 8.8 6.5 5.4
P/E 14.3 15.1 18.6 13.0 9.6
P/BV 3.4 3.7 3.6 2.0 1.7
Other Ratios
Interest Coverage 3.2 3.6 3.3 2.7 3.2
Debt-Equity Ratio 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Current Ratioa 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.6
Total Asset Turnover 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1
Debtors Turnover 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.3
Inventory Turnover 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.5 3.6
Creditors Turnover 5.6 5.6 4.5 4.0 4.1 WC Ratios
Debtor days 90.6 81.6 78.2 84.8 84.5
Inventory days 68.3 81.0 95.9 104.1 102.5
Creditor days 64.8 65.8 80.4 90.8 88.6
Cash conversion cycle 94.0 96.8 93.8 98.1 98.5
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Cumulative Financial Data Figures in Rs crs FY12-14 FY15-17 FY18-20e
Income from operations 2683 4484 7304
Operating profit 275 727 940
EBIT 240 660 804
PBT 79 457 544
PAT after EO* 53 309 371
Dividends 4 52 62
Engineering EBIT 204 608 844
Polymer EBIT 31 43 32
Infrastructure products EBIT 28 27 35
OPM (%) 10.2 16.2 12.9
GPM (%) 4.4 11.9 9.4
NPM (%) 2.0 6.9 5.1
Interest coverage 1.5 3.3 3.1
ROE (%) 10.1 27.8 18.4
ROCE (%) 9.6 18.4 15.8
Debt-equity ratio* 1.8 0.8 0.6
Fixed asset turnover 3.3 3.6 4.9
Total asset turnover 2.5 2.6 2.9
Debtors turnover 5.5 4.9 4.5
Inventory turnover 4.0 4.2 3.8
Creditors turnover 8.9 5.6 4.6
Debtors days 66.1 73.8 80.8
Inventory days 92.1 87.0 95.7
Creditor days 41.2 64.9 79.7
Cash conversion cycle 117.0 95.9 96.7
Dividend payout ratio (%) 7.1 17.0 16.7
FY12-14 implies three years ending fiscal 14; *as on terminal year
Sturdiness of Skipper's engineering segment could scarcely be undermined for it accounted for bulk of its growth in EBIT over
the last many years. Allocable EBIT of its engineering segment would zoom to Rs 844 crs in FY18-20e from just Rs 204 crs in
FY12-14 period, while the profit of polymer business has worryingly staggered - despite scarcely timid revenue growth.
Scathed largely by terrible margin suppression in its polymers business - more recently due to prodigious dealer incentives -
but also somewhat from transmission segment's margin climb-down, overall operating margin in FY18-20e period is
estimated to decline to 12.9% from 16.2% in three years ending FY17. After growing nearly six fold in FY15-17 period (see
chart), post tax earnings (cumulative) would grow by 19.9%.
Steady accumulation of debt would hardly resurrect flagging return on capital not least due to stress in earnings and poor
capacity utilization of pits polymer capacity. ROE as a result would struggle to rise - 18.4% in FY18-20 period from 27.8% in
FY15-17 period. Fixed asset turnover ratio though would rise to the highest in recent years. Cash conversion cycle would flat
line to nearly 97 days (see table).
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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated million $ FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e
Equity capital 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
Shareholders funds 61.1 79.1 94.8 100.4 118.1
Total debt 70.4 67.4 76.4 75.1 75.3
Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 69.0 78.8 80.3 73.3 70.9
Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net current assets 28.9 34.8 48.6 55.0 72.0
Total assets 90.9 106.2 120.5 121.6 137.4
Revenues 230.1 248.1 321.8 343.3 402.4
EBITDA 35.5 41.1 47.5 41.5 49.9
EBDT 25.6 31.1 35.3 28.8 36.7
PBT 22.0 26.4 28.2 22.1 29.6
PAT 14.6 18.5 18.4 15.2 20.7
EPS($) 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.20
Book value ($) 0.60 0.77 0.92 0.98 1.15
income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rate ($70.14/$)
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Vasawani Mansion, 5th Floor, Dinshaw Wachha Road, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400 020. Phone: +91(22) 2283 0652/0653; Fax: +91(22) 2283, 2276
Website: www.cdequi.com; Email: [email protected]
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